Epidemic intelligence in Europe: a user needs perspective to foster innovation in digital health surveillance.

BACKGROUND: European epidemic intelligence (EI) systems receive vast amounts of information and data on disease outbreaks and potential health threats. The quantity and variety of available data sources for EI, as well as the available methods to manage and analyse these data sources, are constantly increasing. Our aim was to identify the difficulties encountered in this context and which innovations, according to EI practitioners, could improve the detection, monitoring and analysis of disease outbreaks and the emergence of new pathogens. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study to identify the need for innovation expressed by 33 EI practitioners of national public health and animal health agencies in five European countries and at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). We adopted a stepwise approach to identify the EI stakeholders, to understand the problems they faced concerning their EI activities, and to validate and further define with practitioners the problems to address and the most adapted solutions to their work conditions. We characterized their EI activities, professional logics, and desired changes in their activities using NvivoⓇ software. RESULTS: Our analysis highlights that EI practitioners wished to collectively review their EI strategy to enhance their preparedness for emerging infectious diseases, adapt their routines to manage an increasing amount of data and have methodological support for cross-sectoral analysis. Practitioners were in demand of timely, validated and standardized data acquisition processes by text mining of various sources; better validated dataflows respecting the data protection rules; and more interoperable data with homogeneous quality levels and standardized covariate sets for epidemiological assessments of national EI. The set of solutions identified to facilitate risk detection and risk assessment included visualization, text mining, and predefined analytical tools combined with methodological guidance. Practitioners also highlighted their preference for partial rather than full automation of analyses to maintain control over the data and inputs and to adapt parameters to versatile objectives and characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that the set of solutions needed by practitioners had to be based on holistic and integrated approaches for monitoring zoonosis and antimicrobial resistance and on harmonization between agencies and sectors while maintaining flexibility in the choice of tools and methods. The technical requirements should be defined in detail by iterative exchanges with EI practitioners and decision-makers.

Malaria among children under 10 years in 4 endemic health areas in Kisantu Health Zone: epidemiology and transmission.

BACKGROUND: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the second most malaria-affected country in the world with 21,608,681 cases reported in 2019. The Kongo Central (KC) Province has a malaria annual incidence of 163 cases/per 1000 inhabitants which are close to the national average of 153.4/1000. However, the malaria prevalence varies both between and within health zones in this province. The main objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and transmission of malaria among children aged 0 to 10 years in the 4 highest endemic health areas in Kisantu Health Zone (HZ) of KC in DRC. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from October to November 2017 using multi-stage sampling. A total of 30 villages in 4 health areas in Kisantu HZ were randomly selected. The prevalence of malaria was measured using a thick blood smear (TBS) and known predictors and associated outcomes were assessed. Data are described and association determinants of malaria infection were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 1790 children between 0 and 10 years were included in 30 villages in 4 health areas of Kisantu HZ. The overall prevalence in the study area according to the TBS was 14.8% (95% CI: 13.8-16.6; range: 0-53). The mean sporozoite rate in the study area was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.6-6.6). The determination of kdr-west resistance alleles showed the presence of both L1014S and L1014F with 14.6% heterozygous L1014S/L1014F, 84.4% homozygous 1014F, and 1% homozygous 1014S. The risk factors associated with malaria infection were ground or wooden floors aOR: 15.8 (95% CI: 8.6-29.2), a moderate or severe underweight: 1.5 (1.1-2.3) and to be overweight: 1.9 (95% CI: 1.3-2.7). CONCLUSION: Malaria prevalence differed between villages and health areas within the same health zone. The control strategy activities must be oriented by the variety in the prevalence and transmission of malaria in different areas. The policy against malaria regarding long-lasting insecticidal nets should be based on the evidence of metabolic resistance.

Epidemic intelligence activities among national public and animal health agencies: a European cross-sectional study.

Epidemic Intelligence (EI) encompasses all activities related to early identification, verification, analysis, assessment, and investigation of health threats. It integrates an indicator-based (IBS) component using systematically collected surveillance data, and an event-based component (EBS), using non-official, non-verified, non-structured data from multiple sources. We described current EI practices in Europe by conducting a survey of national Public Health (PH) and Animal Health (AH) agencies. We included generic questions on the structure, mandate and scope of the institute, on the existence and coordination of EI activities, followed by a section where respondents provided a description of EI activities for three diseases out of seven disease models. Out of 81 gatekeeper agencies from 41 countries contacted, 34 agencies (42%) from 26 (63%) different countries responded, out of which, 32 conducted EI activities. Less than half (15/32; 47%) had teams dedicated to EI activities and 56% (18/34) had Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) in place. On a national level, a combination of IBS and EBS was the most common data source. Most respondents monitored the epidemiological situation in bordering countries, the rest of Europe and the world. EI systems were heterogeneous across countries and diseases. National IBS activities strongly relied on mandatory laboratory-based surveillance systems. The collection, analysis and interpretation of IBS information was performed manually for most disease models. Depending on the disease, some respondents did not have any EBS activity. Most respondents conducted signal assessment manually through expert review. Cross-sectoral collaboration was heterogeneous. More than half of the responding institutes collaborated on various levels (data sharing, communication, etc.) with neighbouring countries and/or international structures, across most disease models. Our findings emphasise a notable engagement in EI activities across PH and AH institutes of Europe, but opportunities exist for better integration, standardisation, and automatization of these efforts. A strong reliance on traditional IBS and laboratory-based surveillance systems, emphasises the key role of in-country laboratories networks. EI activities may benefit particularly from investments in cross-border collaboration, the development of methods that can automatise signal assessment in both IBS and EBS data, as well as further investments in the collection of EBS data beyond scientific literature and mainstream media.

VectorNet: collaborative mapping of arthropod disease vectors in Europe and surrounding areas since 2010.

BackgroundArthropod vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and biting midges are of public and veterinary health significance because of the pathogens they can transmit. Understanding their distributions is a key means of assessing risk. VectorNet maps their distribution in the EU and surrounding areas.AimWe aim to describe the methodology underlying VectorNet maps, encourage standardisation and evaluate output.Methods: Vector distribution and surveillance activity data have been collected since 2010 from a combination of literature searches, field-survey data by entomologist volunteers via a network facilitated for each participating country and expert validation. Data were collated by VectorNet members and extensively validated during data entry and mapping processes.ResultsAs of 2021, the VectorNet archive consisted of ca 475,000 records relating to > 330 species. Maps for 42 species are routinely produced online at subnational administrative unit resolution. On VectorNet maps, there are relatively few areas where surveillance has been recorded but there are no distribution data. Comparison with other continental databases, namely the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and VectorBase show that VectorNet has 5-10 times as many records overall, although three species are better represented in the other databases. In addition, VectorNet maps show where species are absent. VectorNet's impact as assessed by citations (ca 60 per year) and web statistics (58,000 views) is substantial and its maps are widely used as reference material by professionals and the public.ConclusionVectorNet maps are the pre-eminent source of rigorously validated arthropod vector maps for Europe and its surrounding areas.

Two fatal autochthonous cases of airport malaria, Belgium, 2020.

We report an outbreak investigation of two fatal cases of autochthonous Plasmodium falciparum malaria that occurred in Belgium in September 2020. Various hypotheses of the potential source of infection were investigated. The most likely route of transmission was through an infectious exotic Anopheles mosquito that was imported via the international airport of Brussels or the military airport Melsbroek and infected the cases who lived at 5 km from the airports. Based on genomic analysis of the parasites collected from the two cases, the most likely origin of the Plasmodium was Gabon or Cameroon. Further, the parasites collected from the two Belgian patients were identical by descent, which supports the assumption that the two infections originated from the bite of the same mosquito, during interrupted feeding. Although airport malaria remains a rare event, it has significant implications, particularly for the patient, as delayed or missed diagnosis of the cause of illness often results in complications and mortality. Therefore, to prevent such severe or fatal outcomes, we suggest a number of public health actions including increased awareness among health practitioners, especially those working in the vicinity of airports, and increased surveillance of exotic mosquito species at airports.

Ecological Survey of the Peridomestic Sand Flies of an Endemic Focus of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the South-East of Morocco.

Leishmaniasis is a parasitosis caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by Phlebotominae sand flies. An entomological survey was carried out in different localities of Zagora Province. Our work allowed us to establish an inventory of sand flies to study potential vectors of leishmaniasis and to compare the composition and the specific abundance of different endemic stations. The sand flies were collected using CDC miniature light traps during the month of July 2019 in the ten studied villages. The results indicate the presence of thirteen species, belonging to the genera Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia. Phlebotomus papatasi was the predominant species (46.65%) followed by Ph. alexandri (17%), Ph. longicuspis (11.55%), Ph. bergeroti (1.53%) and Ph. sergenti (1.27%). Phlebotomus kazeruni (0.03%) was rare, and only one female was captured in Ifred. Sergentomyia schwetzi (8.69%) was the most prevalent species in the Sergentomyia genus followed closely by Se. fallax (6.84%). Sergentomyia africana was present with a proportion of (3.86%) followed by Se. clydei (1.96%). Sergentomyia dreifussi (0.46%), Se. antennata (0.08%), and Se. minuta (0.08%) were very limited. Phlebotomus papatasi, Ph. alexandri, Ph. bergeroti, Ph. longicuspis, Ph. sergenti, Se. schwetzi, Se. clydei, and Se. fallax are constant species, being present at least in 50% of the stations (occurrence> 50%). Common species (25%-49%) were Se. minuta and Se. africana and rare species were Ph. kazeruni and Se. antennata with a very limited distribution (occurrence <12%). The greatest species richness was found in Ksar Mougni and Ifred with the occurrence of 11 species, but overall, it was high (>9 species) in most of the villages. The Shannon-Wiener index was high (H' > 1) in eight localities (Ksar Mougni, Tassaouante, Bleida, ZaouiteLeftah, Ifred, Timarighine, Ait Oulahyane, and Ait Ali Ouhassou). The high value of this index is in favor of the ZaouiteLeftah locality (Shannon-Wiener index = 1.679) which is explained by the presence of a stand dominated by Ph. papatasi. In order to avoid exposure to infections, a good epidemiological surveillance and vector with rodent control measures must be well maintained. Awareness campaigns are also required and must be conducted for better knowledge of the disease.

Households or Hotspots? Defining Intervention Targets for Malaria Elimination in Ratanakiri Province, Eastern Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria "hotspots" have been proposed as potential intervention units for targeted malaria elimination. Little is known about hotspot formation and stability in settings outside sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Clustering of Plasmodium infections at the household and hotspot level was assessed over 2 years in 3 villages in eastern Cambodia. Social and spatial autocorrelation statistics were calculated to assess clustering of malaria risk, and logistic regression was used to assess the effect of living in a malaria hotspot compared to living in a malaria-positive household in the first year of the study on risk of malaria infection in the second year. RESULTS: The crude prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 8.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. Living in a hotspot in 2016 did not predict Plasmodium risk at the individual or household level in 2017 overall, but living in a Plasmodium-positive household in 2016 strongly predicted living in a Plasmodium-positive household in 2017 (Risk Ratio, 5.00 [95% confidence interval, 2.09-11.96], P < .0001). There was no consistent evidence that malaria risk clustered in groups of socially connected individuals from different households. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria risk clustered more clearly in households than in hotspots over 2 years. Household-based strategies should be prioritized in malaria elimination programs in this region.

Genetic Spatiotemporal Anatomy of Plasmodium vivax Malaria Episodes in Greece, 2009-2013.

An influx of immigrants is contributing to the reemergence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece; 1 persistent focus of transmission is in Laconia, Pelopónnese. We genotyped archived blood samples from a substantial proportion of malaria cases recorded in Greece in 2009-2013 using 8 microsatellite markers and a PvMSP-3α gene fragment and plotted their spatiotemporal distribution. High parasite genetic diversity with low multiplicity of infection was observed. A subset of genetically identical/related parasites was restricted to 3 areas in migrants and Greek residents, with some persisting over 2 consecutive transmission periods. We identified 2 hitherto unsuspected additional foci of local transmission: Kardhítsa and Attica. Furthermore, this analysis indicates that several cases in migrants initially classified as imported malaria were actually locally acquired. This study shows the potential for P. vivax to reestablish transmission and counsels public health authorities about the need for vigilance to achieve or maintain sustainable malaria elimination.

An updated meta-analysis of the distribution and prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. in ticks in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The bacteria of the group Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. are the etiological agents of Lyme borreliosis in humans, transmitted by bites of ticks. Improvement of control measures requires a solid framework of the environmental traits driving its prevalence in ticks. METHODS: We updated a previous meta-analysis of the reported prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. in questing nymphs of Ixodes ricinus with a literature search from January 2010-June 2017. This resulted in 195 new papers providing the prevalence of Bb for 926 geo-referenced records. Previously obtained data (878 records, years 2000-2010) were appended for modelling. The complete dataset contains data from 82,004 questing nymphs, resulting in 558 records of B. afzelii, 404 of B. burgdorferi s.s. (only 80 after the year 2010), 552 of B. garinii, 78 of B. lusitaniae, 61 of B. spielmanii, and 373 of B. valaisiana. We associated the records with explicit coordinates to environmental conditions and to a categorical definition of European landscapes (LANMAP2) looking for a precise definition of the environmental niche of the most reported species of the pathogen, using models based on different classification methods. RESULTS: The most commonly reported species are B. afzelii, B. garinii and B. valaisiana largely overlapping across Europe. Prevalence in ticks is associated with portions of the environmental niche. Highest prevalence occurs in areas of 280°-290° (Kelvin) of mean annual temperature experiencing a small amplitude, steady spring slope, together with high mean values and a moderate spring rise of vegetation vigor. Low prevalence occurs in sites with low and a noteworthy annual amplitude of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (colder areas with abrupt annual changes of vegetation). Models based on support vector machines provided a correct classification rate of the habitat and prevalence of 89.5%. These results confirm the association of prevalence of the three most commonly reported species of B. burgdorferi s.l. in Europe to parts of the environmental niche and provide a statistically tractable framework for analyzing trends under scenarios of climate change.

Surveillance perspective on Lyme borreliosis across the European Union and European Economic Area.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in Europe. Erythema migrans (EM), an early, localised skin rash, is its most common presentation. Dissemination of the bacteria can lead to more severe manifestations including skin, neurological, cardiac, musculoskeletal and ocular manifestations. Comparison of LB incidence rates in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) and Balkan countries are difficult in the absence of standardised surveillance and reporting procedures. We explored six surveillance scenarios for LB surveillance in the EU/EEA, based on the following key indicators: (i) erythema migrans, (ii) neuroborreliosis, (iii) all human LB manifestations, (iv) seroprevalence, (v) tick bites, and (vi) infected ticks and reservoir hosts. In our opinion, neuroborreliosis seems most feasible and useful as the standard key indicator, being one of the most frequent severe LB manifestations, with the possibility of a specific case definition. Additional surveillance with erythema migrans as key indicator would add value to the surveillance of neuroborreliosis and lead to a more complete picture of LB epidemiology in the EU/EEA. The other scenarios have less value as a basis for EU-level surveillance, but can be considered periodically and locally, as they could supply complementary insights.

West Nile virus surveillance in Europe: moving towards an integrated animal-human-vector approach.

This article uses the experience of five European countries to review the integrated approaches (human, animal and vector) for surveillance and monitoring of West Nile virus (WNV) at national and European levels. The epidemiological situation of West Nile fever in Europe is heterogeneous. No model of surveillance and monitoring fits all, hence this article merely encourages countries to implement the integrated approach that meets their needs. Integration of surveillance and monitoring activities conducted by the public health authorities, the animal health authorities and the authorities in charge of vector surveillance and control should improve efficiency and save resources by implementing targeted measures. The creation of a formal interagency working group is identified as a crucial step towards integration. Blood safety is a key incentive for public health authorities to allocate sufficient resources for WNV surveillance, while the facts that an effective vaccine is available for horses and that most infected animals remain asymptomatic make the disease a lesser priority for animal health authorities. The examples described here can support other European countries wishing to strengthen their WNV surveillance or preparedness, and also serve as a model for surveillance and monitoring of other (vector-borne) zoonotic infections.

Chikungunya: Its History in Africa and Asia and Its Spread to New Regions in 2013-2014.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and causes febrile illness with severe arthralgia in humans. There are 3 circulating CHIKV genotypes, Asia, East/Central/South Africa, and West Africa. CHIKV was first reported in 1953 in Tanzania, and up until the early 2000s, a few outbreaks and sporadic cases of CHIKV were mainly reported in Africa and Asia. However, from 2004 to 2005, a large epidemic spanned from Kenya over to the southwestern Indian Ocean region, India, and Southeast Asia. Identified in 2005, the E1 glycoprotein A226V mutation of the East/Central/South Africa genotype conferred enhanced transmission by the A. albopictus mosquito and has been implicated in CHIKV's further spread in the last decade. In 2013, the Asian CHIKV genotype emerged in the Caribbean and quickly took the Americas by storm. This review will discuss the history of CHIKV as well as its expanding geographic distribution.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Mapping environmental suitability for malaria transmission, Greece.

During 2009-2012, Greece experienced a resurgence of domestic malaria transmission. To help guide malaria response efforts, we used spatial modeling to characterize environmental signatures of areas suitable for transmission. Nonlinear discriminant analysis indicated that sea-level altitude and land-surface temperature parameters are predictive in this regard.

Effects of pyrethroid resistance on the cost effectiveness of a mass distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets in preventing malaria is threatened by developing resistance against pyrethroids. Little is known about how strongly this affects the effectiveness of vector control programmes. METHODS: Data from experimental hut studies on the effects of long-lasting, insecticidal nets (LLINs) on nine anopheline mosquito populations, with varying levels of mortality in World Health Organization susceptibility tests, were used to parameterize malaria models. Both simple static models predicting population-level insecticidal effectiveness and protection against blood feeding, and complex dynamic epidemiological models, where LLINs decayed over time, were used. The epidemiological models, implemented in OpenMalaria, were employed to study the impact of a single mass distribution of LLINs on malaria, both in terms of episodes prevented during the effective lifetime of the batch of LLINs, and in terms of net health benefits (NHB) expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted during that period, depending on net type (standard pyrethroid-only LLIN or pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide combination LLIN), resistance status, coverage and pre-intervention transmission level. RESULTS: There were strong positive correlations between insecticide susceptibility status and predicted population level insecticidal effectiveness of and protection against blood feeding by LLIN intervention programmes. With the most resistant mosquito population, the LLIN mass distribution averted up to about 40% fewer episodes and DALYs during the effective lifetime of the batch than with fully susceptible populations. However, cost effectiveness of LLINs was more sensitive to the pre-intervention transmission level and coverage than to susceptibility status. For four out of the six Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations where direct comparisons between standard LLINs and combination LLINs were possible, combination nets were more cost effective, despite being more expensive. With one resistant population, both net types were equally effective, and with one of the two susceptible populations, standard LLINs were more cost effective. CONCLUSION: Despite being less effective when compared to areas with susceptible mosquito populations, standard and combination LLINs are likely to (still) be cost effective against malaria even in areas with strong pyrethroid resistance. Combination nets are likely to be more cost effective than standard nets in areas with resistant mosquito populations.

A social-ecological systems approach to tick bite and tick-borne disease risk management: Exploring collective action in the Occitanie region in southern France.

Ticks are amongst the most important zoonotic disease vectors affecting human and animal health worldwide. Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) are rapidly expanding geographically and in incidence, most notably in temperate regions of Europe where ticks are considered the principal zoonotic vector of Public Health relevance, as well as a major health and economic preoccupation in agriculture and equine industries. Tick-borne pathogen (TBP) transmission is contingent on complex, interlinked vector-pathogen-host dynamics, environmental and ecological conditions and human behavior. Tackling TBD therefore requires a better understanding of the interconnected social and ecological variables (i.e., the social-ecological system) that favor disease (re)-emergence. The One Health paradigm recognizes the interdependence of human, animal and environmental health and proposes an integrated approach to manage TBD. However, One Health interventions are limited by significant gaps in our understanding of the complex, systemic nature of TBD risk, in addition to a lack of effective, universally accepted and environmentally conscious tick control measures. Today individual prevention gestures are the most effective strategy to manage TBDs in humans and animals, making local communities important actors in TBD detection, prevention and management. Yet, how they engage and collaborate within a multi-actor TBD network has not yet been explored. Here, we argue that transdisciplinary collaborations that go beyond research, political and medical stakeholders, and extend to local community actors can aid in identifying relevant social-ecological risk indicators key for informing multi-level TBD detection, prevention and management measures. This article proposes a transdisciplinary social-ecological systems framework, based on participatory research approaches, to better understand the necessary conditions for local actor engagement to improve TBD risk. We conclude with perspectives for implementing this methodological framework in a case study in the south of France (Occitanie region), where multi-actor collaborations are mobilized to stimulate multi-actor collective action and identify relevant social-ecological indicators of TBD risk.

An annotated dataset for event-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance.

This paper presents an annotated dataset used in the MOOD Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) hackathon, hosted in Montpellier, June 2022. The collected data concerns unstructured data from news items, scientific publications and national or international reports, collected from four event-based surveillance (EBS) Systems, i.e. ProMED, PADI-web, HealthMap and MedISys. Data was annotated by relevance for epidemic intelligence (EI) purposes with the help of AMR experts and an annotation guideline. Extracted data were intended to include relevant events on the emergence and spread of AMR such as reports on AMR trends, discovery of new drug-bug resistances, or new AMR genes in human, animal or environmental reservoirs. This dataset can be used to train or evaluate classification approaches to automatically identify written text on AMR events across the different reservoirs and sectors of One Health (i.e. human, animal, food, environmental sources, such as soil and waste water) in unstructured data (e.g. news, tweets) and classify these events by relevance for EI purposes.

The ongoing risk of Leishmania donovani transmission in eastern Nepal: an entomological investigation during the elimination era.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a life-threatening neglected tropical disease, is targeted for elimination from Nepal by the year 2026. The national VL elimination program is still confronted with many challenges including the increasingly widespread distribution of the disease over the country, local resurgence and the questionable efficacy of the key vector control activities. In this study, we assessed the status and risk of Leishmania donovani transmission based on entomological indicators including seasonality, natural Leishmania infection rate and feeding behavior of vector sand flies, Phlebotomus argentipes, in three districts that had received disease control interventions in the past several years in the context of the disease elimination effort. METHODS: We selected two epidemiologically contrasting settings in each survey district, one village with and one without reported VL cases in recent years. Adult sand flies were collected using CDC light traps and mouth aspirators in each village for 12 consecutive months from July 2017 to June 2018. Leishmania infection was assessed in gravid sand flies targeting the small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene of the parasite (SSU-rRNA) and further sequenced for species identification. A segment (~ 350 bp) of the vertebrate cytochrome b (cytb) gene was amplified from blood-fed P. argentipes from dwellings shared by both humans and cattle and sequenced to identify the preferred host. RESULTS: Vector abundance varied among districts and village types and peaks were observed in June, July and September to November. The estimated Leishmania infection rate in vector sand flies was 2.2% (1.1%-3.7% at 95% credible interval) and 0.6% (0.2%-1.3% at 95% credible interval) in VL and non-VL villages respectively. The common source of blood meal was humans in both VL (52.7%) and non-VL (74.2%) villages followed by cattle. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the risk of ongoing L. donovani transmission not only in villages with VL cases but also in villages not reporting the presence of the disease over the past several years within the districts having disease elimination efforts, emphasize the remaining threats of VL re-emergence and inform the national program for critical evaluation of disease elimination strategies in Nepal.

The values and risks of an Intergovernmental Panel for One Health to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the need for better global governance of pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response (PPR) and has emphasised the importance of organised knowledge production and uptake. In this Health Policy, we assess the potential values and risks of establishing an Intergovernmental Panel for One Health (IPOH). Similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an IPOH would facilitate knowledge uptake in policy making via a multisectoral approach, and hence support the addressing of infectious disease emergence and re-emergence at the human-animal-environment interface. The potential benefits to pandemic PPR include a clear, unified, and authoritative voice from the scientific community, support to help donors and institutions to prioritise their investments, evidence-based policies for implementation, and guidance on defragmenting the global health system. Potential risks include a scope not encompassing all pandemic origins, unclear efficacy in fostering knowledge uptake by policy makers, potentially inadequate speed in facilitating response efforts, and coordination challenges among an already dense set of stakeholders. We recommend weighing these factors when designing institutional reforms for a more effective global health system.

MODIRISK: Mosquito vectors of disease, collection, monitoring and longitudinal data from Belgium.

The MODIRISK project studied mosquito biodiversity and monitored and predicted biodiversity changes, to actively prepare to address issues of biodiversity change, especially invasive species and new pathogen risks. This work is essential given continuing global changes that may create suitable conditions for invasive species spread and the (re-)emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe. Key strengths of MODIRISK, in the context of sustainable development, were the links between biodiversity and health and the environment, and its contribution to the development of tools for describing the spatial distribution of mosquito biodiversity. MODIRISK addressed key topics of the global Diversitas initiative, which was a main driver of the Belspo 'Science for a Sustainable Development' research program. Three different MODIRISK datasets were published in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF): the Collection dataset (the Culicidae collection of the Museum of Natural History in Brussels); the Inventory dataset (data from the MODIRISK inventory effort); and the Longitudinal dataset (experiment data used for risk assessments).