Testing and Treatment Interventions in Community Settings Key to Controlling a Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Outbreak Among People Who Inject Drugs in Glasgow: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: A human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak was identified among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow in 2015, with >150 diagnoses by the end of 2019. The outbreak response involved scaling up HIV testing and improving HIV treatment initiation and retention. METHODS: We parameterized and calibrated a dynamic, deterministic model of HIV transmission among PWID in Glasgow to epidemiological data. We use this model to evaluate HIV testing and treatment interventions. We present results in terms of relative changes in HIV prevalence, incidence, and cases averted. RESULTS: If the improvements in both testing and treatment had not occurred, we predict that HIV prevalence would have reached 17.8% (95% credible interval [CrI], 14.1%-22.6%) by the beginning of 2020, compared to 5.9% (95% CrI, 4.7%-7.4%) with the improvements. If the improvements had been made on detection of the outbreak in 2015, we predict that peak incidence would have been 26.2% (95% CrI, 8.8%-49.3%) lower and 62.7% (95% CrI, 43.6%-76.6%) of the outbreak cases could have been averted. The outbreak could have been avoided if the improvements had already been in place. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling suggests that the HIV testing and treatment interventions successfully brought the HIV outbreak in Glasgow under control by the beginning of 2020.

Correction: Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003818.].

From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses.

BACKGROUND: Including structural determinants (e.g. criminalisation, stigma, inequitable gender norms) in dynamic HIV transmission models is important to help quantify their population-level impacts and guide implementation of effective interventions that reduce the burden of HIV and inequalities thereof. However, evidence-based modelling of structural determinants is challenging partly due to a limited understanding of their causal pathways and few empirical estimates of their effects on HIV acquisition and transmission. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of dynamic HIV transmission modelling studies that evaluated the impacts of structural determinants, published up to August 28, 2023, using Ovid Embase and Medline online databases. We appraised studies on how models represented exposure to structural determinants and causal pathways. Building on this, we developed a new methodological framework and recommendations to support the incorporation of structural determinants in transmission dynamics models and their analyses. We discuss the data and analyses that could strengthen the evidence used to inform these models. RESULTS: We identified 17 HIV modelling studies that represented structural determinants and/or interventions, including incarceration of people who inject drugs (number of studies [n] = 5), violence against women (n = 3), HIV stigma (n = 1), and housing instability (n = 1), among others (n = 7). Most studies (n = 10) modelled exposures dynamically. Almost half (8/17 studies) represented multiple exposure histories (e.g. current, recent, non-recent exposure). Structural determinants were often assumed to influence HIV indirectly by influencing mediators such as contact patterns, condom use, and antiretroviral therapy use. However, causal pathways' assumptions were sometimes simple, with few mediators explicitly represented in the model, and largely based on cross-sectional associations. Although most studies calibrated models using HIV epidemiological data, less than half (7/17) also fitted or cross-validated to data on the prevalence, frequency, or effects of exposure to structural determinants. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models can play a crucial role in elucidating the population-level impacts of structural determinants and interventions on HIV. We recommend the next generation of models reflect exposure to structural determinants dynamically and mechanistically, and reproduce the key causal pathways, based on longitudinal evidence of links between structural determinants, mediators, and HIV. This would improve the validity and usefulness of predictions of the impacts of structural determinants and interventions.

Predictors of engagement in screening for a hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment trial in a rural Appalachian community.

An HCV treatment trial was initiated in September 2019 to address the opioid/hepatitis C virus (HCV) syndemic in rural Kentucky. The focus of the current analysis is on participation in diagnostic screening for the trial. Initial eligibility (≥18 years of age, county resident) was established by phone followed by in-person HCV viremia testing. 900 rural residents met the inclusion criteria and comprised the analytic sample. Generalized linear models were specified to estimate the relative risk of non-attendance at the in-person visit determining HCV eligibility. Approximately one-quarter (22.1%) of scheduled participants were no-shows. People who inject drugs were no more likely than people not injecting drugs to be a no-show; however, participants ≤35 years of age were significantly less likely to attend. While the median time between phone screening and scheduled in-person screening was only 2 days, each additional day increased the odds of no-show by 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%-3%). Finally, unknown HCV status predicted no-show even after adjustment for age, gender, days between screenings and injection status. We found that drug injection did not predict no-show, further justifying expanded access to HCV treatment among people who inject drugs. Those 35 years and younger were more likely to no-show, suggesting that younger individuals may require targeted strategies for increasing testing and treatment uptake. Finally, streamlining the treatment cascade may also improve outcomes, as participants in the current study were more likely to attend if there were fewer days between phone screening and scheduled in-person screening.

Changes in the prevalence of hepatitis B and C viral infections in Sindh province, Pakistan: Findings from two sero-surveys in 2007 and 2019.

Pakistan harbours a large burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We utilised repeat sero-surveys to assess progress achieved towards hepatitis elimination in Pakistan. Multilevel logistic regression evaluated the change in HBV infection (HBV surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive) prevalence and HCV exposure (HCV antibody (HCV-Ab)-positive) prevalence between two sero-surveys from 2007 and 2019 for Sindh province and associated risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were estimated and population-attributable fractions (PAF) for modifiable risk factors for HCV exposure. The 2007 and 2019 surveys included 8855 and 6672 individuals. HBsAg prevalence decreased from 2.6% (95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 2.2-2.9) in 2007 to 1.1% (95% CI: 0.8-1.3) in 2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence increased from 5.1% (95% CI: 4.6%-5.5%) to 6.2% (95% CI: 5.6%-6.8%). The age and gender-adjusted HBsAg prevalence decreased by 80% (aOR = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1-0.4) among children and 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.6) among adults over 2007-2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence decreased by 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95%CI:0.2-0.7) in children and increased by 40% (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7) in adults. HCV-Ab prevalence was lower in adults with secondary (aOR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8) and higher (aOR = 0.5, 95%CI:0.3-0.8) education compared to illiterates and higher among adults reporting blood transfusion (aOR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), family history of hepatitis (aOR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.9-3.3), past year medical injection (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.7), being tattooed (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.9) and shaved by traditional barber (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.5). Modifiable risk factors accounted for 45% of HCV exposure, with medical injection(s) accounting for 38% (95%CI,25.7-48.4%). Overall HCV has increased over 2007-2019 in Sindh province, while HBV prevalence has decreased. Medical injections should be an important focus of prevention activities.

Incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in the prison setting: The SToP-C study.

People in prison are at high risk of HCV given high injecting drug use prevalence. This study evaluated HCV incidence and associated injecting drug use characteristics in prison. The SToP-C study enrolled people incarcerated in four Australian prisons. Participants were tested for HCV at enrolment and then every 3-6 months (October-2014 to November-2019). Participants eligible for this analysis included those at-risk of HCV primary infection (anti-HCV negative) or re-infection (anti-HCV positive, HCV RNA negative) with follow-up assessment. A total of 1643 eligible participants were included in analyses (82% male; median age 33 years; 30% injected drugs in prison; 1818 person-years of follow-up). Overall HCV incidence was 6.11/100 person-years (95%CI: 5.07-7.35), with higher rate of re-infection (9.34/100 person-years; 95%CI: 7.15-12.19) than primary infection (4.60/100 person-years; 95%CI: 3.56-5.96). In total population (n = 1643), HCV risk was significantly higher among participants injecting drugs in prison [vs. no injecting; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 10.55, 95%CI: 5.88-18.92), and those who were released and re-incarcerated during follow-up (vs. remained incarcerated; aHR: 1.60, 95%CI: 1.03-2.49). Among participants who injected recently (during past month, n = 321), HCV risk was reduced among those receiving high-dosage opioid agonist therapy (OAT), i.e. methadone ≥60 mg/day or buprenorphine ≥16 mg/day, (vs. no OAT, aHR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.02-0.80) and increased among those sharing needles/syringes without consistent use of disinfectant to clean injecting equipment (vs. no sharing, HR: 4.60, 95%CI: 1.35-15.66). This study demonstrated high HCV transmission risk in prison, particularly among people injecting drugs. High-dosage OAT was protective, but improved OAT coverage and needle/syringe programmes to reduce sharing injecting equipment are required.

Incidence of primary hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs during 2012-2020 in Athens, Greece.

One of the World Health Organization's targets for the 2030 viral hepatitis elimination strategy is to reduce new hepatitis C (HCV) infections. In Athens, Greece, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high HCV prevalence, with increasing trends since the 2000s. This analysis aims to assess primary HCV incidence among PWID during 2012-2020. Two community-based interventions were implemented in 2012-2013 and 2018-2020 with repeated sero-behavioural surveys in each period. Participants enrolled in multiple surveys were identified through linkage. To assess trends in HCV transmission, three indicators were estimated: (i) anti-HCV prevalence among 'new' injectors (those injecting ≤2 years), (ii) indirect HCV incidence among 'new' injectors, assuming infection occurred at the midpoint between initiating injection and the first positive test, and (iii) HCV incidence from repeat participants. There were 431 and 125 'new' injectors, respectively, in 2012-2013 and 2018-2020. Αnti-HCV prevalence [95% CI] declined from 53.6% [48.8%, 58.3%] in 2012-2013 to 40.0% [31.3, 49.1%] in 2018-2020 (25.4% reduction, p = .007). The indirect estimate [95% CI] of HCV incidence among 'new' injectors decreased from 56.1 [49.3, 63.8] to 39.0/100 person-years (PYs) [29.6, 51.5] (30.5% reduction, p = .020). HCV incidence [95% CI] based on seroconversions in repeat participants (16/63 in 2012-2013 and 9/55 in 2018-2020) declined from 64.6 [39.6105.4] to 13.8/100 PYs [7.2, 26.5], respectively (78.6% reduction, p < .001). Primary HCV incidence remains high among PWID in Athens. Consistent implementation of combined interventions, including high-coverage harm reduction programs and initiatives tailored to increase access to HCV treatment, is essential to sustain the declining trends documented during 2012-2020.

Prevalence, trends, and distribution of hepatitis C virus among the general population in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although the evidence is uncertain, existing estimates for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) indicate a high burden. We estimated HCV seroprevalence and viraemic prevalence among the general population in SSA. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, APA PsycINFO, and World Health Organization Africa Index Medicus for community-based studies. Study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool, and heterogeneity using the index of heterogeneity (I2). Two approaches were deployed. First, we used random-effects meta-analysis to pool prevalence. Second, to derive representative estimates, we weighted each country's HCV seroprevalence using 2021 United Nations country population sizes. RESULTS: We synthesized 130 studies. Overall, SSA HCV seroprevalence from the random-effects model was 4.17% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.71-4.66, I2 = 99.30%). There were no differences between males (4.31%) and females (4.03%). Seroprevalence was 2.25%, 3.31%, and 16.23% for ages ≤20, 21-64, and ≥65 years, respectively, and was higher in rural (6.63%) versus urban (2.93%). There was indication of decrement overtime from 5.74% to 4.35% to 3.03% in the years 1984-2000, 2001-2014, and 2015-2023, respectively. The weighted overall SSA HCV seroprevalence was estimated to be 2.30% (95% CI: 1.59-3.00) with regional variation: Africa-Southern (.79%), Africa-Central (1.47%), Africa-Eastern (2.71%), and Africa-Western (2.88%). HCV viremia among HCV seropositives was 54.77% (95% CI: 47.80-61.66). CONCLUSIONS: HCV seroprevalence in SSA remains high. Populations aged ≥65 years, rural communities, Africa-Western, and some countries in Africa-Central and Africa-Eastern appear disproportionately affected. These results underline the need for governmental commitment to achieve the 2030 global HCV elimination targets.

Associations Between Sexual Behavior Stigma and HIV Risk Behaviors, Testing, Treatment, and Infection Among Men Who have Sex with Men in Ukraine.

Stigma toward same-sex behaviors may be a structural driver of HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Eastern Europe and has been linked to adverse HIV-outcomes elsewhere. We explored associations between sexual behavior stigma with HIV risk behaviors, testing, treatment, and infection. From November 2017 to February 2018, MSM across 27 Ukrainian cities were recruited to cross-sectional surveys using respondent driven sampling. Eligible participants were cisgender males aged ≥ 14 years residing in participating cities that reported ≥ 1 sexual contact with another man in the prior 6 months. Participants self-reported experience of stigma (ever) and various HIV-outcomes and were tested for HIV antibodies. Regression models were used to explore associations between three sexual behavior stigma variables with demographic and HIV-related variables. Of 5812 recruited cisgender MSM, 5544 (95.4%) were included. 1663 (30.0%) MSM reported having experienced stigma due to being MSM from family and friends, 698 (12.6%) reported anticipated healthcare stigma, and 1805 (32.6%) reported general public/social stigma due to being MSM (enacted). All forms of stigma were associated with heightened HIV risk behaviors; those experiencing stigma (vs not) had more anal sex partners in the prior month and were less likely to have used condoms during their last anal intercourse. Stigma was not associated with HIV infection, testing, or treatment variables. A sizeable proportion of Ukrainian MSM reported ever experiencing stigma due to being MSM. MSM that had experienced stigma had higher odds of HIV sexual risk behaviors. Further study using longitudinal designs is required to determine causality.

Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Drought could increase HIV transmission through various mediating mechanisms; we investigated these associations. We used data on people aged 15-59 from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys from 2016 in Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Survey data were geospatially linked to precipitation data for 2014-2016, with local droughts defined as cumulative rainfall between 2014 and 2016 being in < 15th percentile of all 2-year periods over 1981-2016. Using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by sex and rural/urban residence, we examined associations between (a) drought and poverty, (b) wealth quintiles and sexual behaviours (transactional, high-risk, and intergenerational sex), (c) sexual behaviours and recently acquiring HIV, and (d) drought and recent HIV. Among 102,081 people, 31.5% resided in areas affected by drought during 2014-2016. Experiencing drought was positively associated with poverty for women and men in rural, but not urban, areas. For each group, increasing wealth was negatively associated with transactional sex. For rural women, intergenerational sex was positively associated with wealth. Women reporting each sexual behaviour had higher odds of recent HIV, with strong associations seen for high-risk sex, and, for urban women, intergenerational sex, with weaker associations among men. Women in rural areas who had been exposed to drought had higher odds of having recently acquired HIV (2.10 [95%CI: 1.17-3.77]), but not women in urban areas, or men. Droughts could potentially increase HIV transmission through increasing poverty and then sexual risk behaviours, particularly among women in rural areas.

Impact of HCV Testing and Treatment on HCV Transmission Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Who Inject Drugs in San Francisco: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men who ever injected drugs (ever MSM-IDU) carry a high hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden. We estimated whether current HCV testing and treatment in San Francisco can achieve the 2030 World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination target on HCV incidence among ever MSM-IDU. METHODS: A dynamic HCV/HIV transmission model among MSM was calibrated to San Francisco data, including HCV antibody (15.5%, 2011) and HIV prevalence (32.8%, 2017) among ever MSM-IDU. MSM had high HCV testing (79%-86% ever tested, 2011-2019) and diagnosed MSM had high HCV treatment (65% ever treated, 2018). Following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related lockdowns, HCV testing and treatment decreased by 59%. RESULTS: Among all MSM, 43% of incident HCV infections in 2022 were IDU-related. Among ever MSM-IDU in 2015, HCV incidence was 1.2/100 person-years (95% credibility interval [CrI], 0.8-1.6). Assuming COVID-19-related declines in HCV testing/treatment persist until 2030, HCV incidence among ever MSM-IDU will decrease by 84.9% (95% CrI, 72.3%-90.8%) over 2015-2030. This decline is largely attributed to HCV testing and treatment (75.8%; 95% CrI, 66.7%-89.5%). Slightly greater decreases in HCV incidence (94%-95%) are projected if COVID-19 disruptions recover by 2025 or 2022. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that HCV incidence will decline by >80% over 2015-2030 among ever MSM-IDU in San Francisco, achieving the WHO target.

Hepatitis C testing among three distinct groups of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional study in the Celtic nations.

OBJECTIVE: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) is associated with sexual and drug-related behaviours. To stem the tide of HCV infection in GBMSM, regular testing leading to early diagnosis and treatment as prevention is vital. This study aimed to evaluate the success of current HCV testing guidelines from the perspective of GBMSM in four Celtic nations. METHODS: Subpopulation analysis of data from the 2020 cross-sectional online SMMASH3 (social media, men who have sex with men, sexual and holistic health) survey was undertaken to examine HCV testing experiences and sexual behaviours among sexually active GBMSM (n=1886) stratified across three groups: HIV-diagnosed GBMSM (n=124); HIV-negative GBMSM using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (n=365); and HIV-negative/untested GBMSM not using PrEP (n=1397). RESULTS: Sexual behaviours associated with HCV acquisition were reported by the majority of HIV-diagnosed (76.6%, n=95) and PrEP-using (93.2%, n=340) GBMSM. Reassuringly, recent testing for HCV in these groups was common, with 79.8% (n=99) and 80.5% (n=294) self-reporting HCV screening within the preceding year, respectively, mostly within sexual health settings. While 54.5% (n=762) of HIV-negative/untested GBMSM not using PrEP reported sexual behaviours associated with HCV, 52.0% had not been screened for HCV in the last year, despite almost half (48.0%, n=190) of unscreened men being in contact with sexual health services in the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual behaviours associated with HCV acquisition among HIV-diagnosed and PrEP-using GBMSM are common but complemented by regular HCV testing within sexual health services. Current testing guidelines for these groups appear to be effective and generally well observed. However, behaviour-based HCV testing for HIV-negative/untested GBMSM not using PrEP appears less effective and may undermine efforts to achieve HCV elimination. Accordingly, we need to increase HCV testing for these men in clinical settings and explore ways to screen those who are not in touch with sexual health services.

Cost-effectiveness of testing for Mycoplasma genitalium among men who have sex with men in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) disproportionately affects men who have sex with men (MSM). We determined the cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies for MG in MSM, taking a healthcare provider perspective. METHODS: We used inputs from a dynamic transmission model of MG among MSM living in Australia in a decision tree model to evaluate the impact of four testing scenarios on MG incidence: (1) no one tested; (2) symptomatic MSM; (3) symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM; (4) all MSM. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $A30 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. We explored the impact of adding an antimicrobial resistance (AMR) tax (ie, additional cost per antibiotic consumed) to identify the threshold, whereby any testing for MG is no longer cost-effective. RESULTS: Testing only symptomatic MSM is the most cost-effective (ICER $3677 per QALY gained) approach. Offering testing to all MSM is dominated (ie, higher costs and lower QALYs gained compared with other strategies). When the AMR tax per antibiotic given was above $150, any testing for MG was no longer cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Testing only symptomatic MSM is the most cost-effective option, even when the potential costs associated with AMR are accounted for (up to $150 additional cost per antibiotic given). For pathogens like MG, where there are anticipated future costs related to AMR, we recommend models that test the impact of incorporating an AMR tax as they can change the results and conclusions of cost-effectiveness studies.

Prison-based interventions are key to achieving HCV elimination among people who inject drugs in New South Wales, Australia: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates which are associated with increased hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We assess the importance of prison-based interventions for achieving HCV elimination among PWID in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: A model of incarceration and HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated in a Bayesian framework to epidemiological and incarceration data from NSW, incorporating elevated HCV acquisition risk among recently released PWID. We projected the contribution of differences in transmission risk during/following incarceration to HCV transmission over 2020-2029. We estimated the past and potential future impact of prison-based opioid agonist therapy (OAT; ~33% coverage) and HCV treatment (1500 treatments in 2019 with 32.9%-83.3% among PWID) on HCV transmission. We estimated the time until HCV incidence reduces by 80% (WHO elimination target) compared to 2016 levels with or without prison-based interventions. RESULTS: Over 2020-2029, incarceration will contribute 23.0% (17.9-30.5) of new HCV infections. If prison-based interventions had not been implemented since 2010, HCV incidence in 2020 would have been 29.7% (95% credibility interval: 22.4-36.1) higher. If current prison and community HCV treatment rates continue, there is an 98.8% probability that elimination targets will be achieved by 2030, with this decreasing to 10.1% without current prison-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Existing prison-based interventions in NSW are critical components of strategies to reduce HCV incidence among PWID. Prison-based interventions are likely to be pivotal for achieving HCV elimination targets among PWID by 2030.

Economic evaluation of the Hepatitis C virus elimination program in the country of Georgia, 2015 to 2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In 2015, the country of Georgia launched an elimination program aiming to reduce the prevalence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 90% from 5.4% prevalence (~150 000 people). During the first 2.5 years of the program, 770 832 people were screened, 48 575 were diagnosed with active HCV infection, and 41 483 patients were treated with direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based regimens, with a >95% cure rate. METHODS: We modelled the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment between April 2015 and November 2017 compared to no treatment, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 2017 US dollars, with a 3% discount rate over 25 years. We compared the ICER to willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of US$4357 (GDP) and US$871 (opportunity cost) per QALY gained. RESULTS: The average cost of screening, HCV viremia testing, and treatment per patient treated was $386 to the provider, $225 to the patient and $1042 for generic DAAs. At 3% discount, 0.57 QALYs were gained per patient treated. The ICER from the perspective of the provider including generic DAAs was $2285 per QALY gained, which is cost-effective at the $4357 WTP threshold, while if patient costs are included, it is just above the threshold at $4398/QALY. All other scenarios examined in sensitivity analyses remain cost-effective except for assuming a shorter time horizon to the end of 2025 or including the list price DAA cost. Reducing or excluding DAA costs reduced the ICER below the opportunity-cost WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The Georgian HCV elimination program provides valuable evidence that national programs for scaling up HCV screening and treatment for achieving HCV elimination can be cost-effective.

Estimating hepatitis B virus prevalence among key population groups for European Union and European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology in Europe differs by region and population risk group, and data are often incomplete. We estimated chronic HBV prevalence as measured by surface antigen (HBsAg) among general and key population groups for each country in the European Union, European Economic Area and the United Kingdom (EU/EEA/UK), including where data are currently unavailable. METHODS: We combined data from a 2018 systematic review (updated in 2021), data gathered directly by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) from EU/EEA countries and the UK and further country-level data. We included data on adults from the general population, pregnant women, first time blood donors (FTBD), men who have sex with men (MSM), prisoners, people who inject drugs (PWID), and migrants from 2001 to 2021, with three exceptions made for pre-2001 estimates. Finite Mixture Models (FMM) and Beta regression were used to predict country and population group HBsAg prevalence. A separate multiplier method was used to estimate HBsAg prevalence among the migrant populations within each country, due to biases in the data available. RESULTS: There were 595 included studies from 31 countries (N = 41,955,969 people): 66 were among the general population (mean prevalence ([Formula: see text]) 1.3% [range: 0.0-7.6%]), 52 among pregnant women ([Formula: see text]1.1% [0.1-5.3%]), 315 among FTBD ([Formula: see text]0.3% [0.0-6.2%]), 20 among MSM ([Formula: see text]1.7% [0.0-11.2%]), 34 among PWID ([Formula: see text]3.9% [0.0-16.9%]), 24 among prisoners ([Formula: see text]2.9% [0.0-10.7%]), and 84 among migrants ([Formula: see text]7.0% [0.2-37.3%]). The FMM grouped countries into 3 classes. We estimated HBsAg prevalence among the general population to be < 1% in 24/31 countries, although it was higher in 7 Eastern/Southern European countries. HBsAg prevalence among each population group was higher in most Eastern/Southern European than Western/Northern European countries, whilst prevalence among PWID and prisoners was estimated at > 1% for most countries. Portugal had the highest estimated prevalence of HBsAg among migrants (5.0%), with the other highest prevalences mostly seen in Southern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated HBV prevalence for each population group within each EU/EAA country and the UK, with general population HBV prevalence to be < 1% in most countries. Further evidence is required on the HBsAg prevalence of high-risk populations for future evidence synthesis.

Associations of inter-annual rainfall decreases with subsequent HIV outcomes for persons with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Periods of droughts can lead to decreased food security, and altered behaviours, potentially affecting outcomes on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among persons with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether decreased rainfall is associated with adverse outcomes among PWH on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: Data were combined from 11 clinical cohorts of PWH in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. Adult PWH who had started ART prior to 01/06/2016 and were in follow-up in the year prior to 01/06/2016 were included. Two-year rainfall from June 2014 to May 2016 at the location of each HIV centre was summed and ranked against historical 2-year rainfall amounts (1981-2016) to give an empirical relative percentile rainfall estimate. The IeDEA-SA and rainfall data were combined using each HIV centre's latitude/longitude. In individual-level analyses, multivariable Cox or generalized estimating equation regression models (GEEs) assessed associations between decreased rainfall versus historical levels and four separate outcomes (mortality, CD4 counts < 200 cells/mm3, viral loads > 400 copies/mL, and > 12-month gaps in follow-up) in the two years following the rainfall period. GEEs were used to investigate the association between relative rainfall and monthly numbers of unique visitors per HIV centre. RESULTS: Among 270,708 PWH across 386 HIV centres (67% female, median age 39 [IQR: 32-46]), lower rainfall than usual was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 1.18 [95%CI: 1.07-1.32] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease) and unsuppressed viral loads (adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [1.01-1.09]). Levels of rainfall were not strongly associated with CD4 counts < 200 cell/mm3 or > 12-month gaps in care. HIV centres in areas with less rainfall than usual had lower numbers of PWH visiting them (adjusted Rate Ratio: 0.80 [0.66-0.98] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased rainfall could negatively impact on HIV treatment behaviours and outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for these effects. Interventions to mitigate the health impact of severe weather events are required.

HepFREEPak: protocol for a multi-centre, prospective observational study examining efficacy and impact of current therapies for the treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and reporting resistance to antiviral drugs: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has one of the highest burdens of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection globally. To achieve the World Health Organization's goals for HCV elimination, there is a need for substantial scale-up in testing, treatment, and a reduction in new infections. Data on the population impact of scaling up treatment is not available in Pakistan, nor is there reliable data on the incidence of infection/reinfection. This project will fill this gap by providing important empirical data on the incidence of infection (primary and reinfection) in Pakistan. Then, by using this data in epidemic models, the study will determine whether response rates achieved with affordable therapies (sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir) will be sufficient to eliminate HCV in Pakistan. METHODS: This prospective multi-centre cohort study will screen 25,000 individuals for HCV antibody (Ab) and RNA (if Ab-positive) at various centers in Pakistan- Karachi (Sindh) and Punjab, providing estimates of the disease prevalence. HCV positive patients will be treated with sofosbuvir and daclatasvir for 12-weeks, (extended to 24-weeks in those with cirrhosis) and the proportion responding to this first-line treatment estimated. Patients who test HCV Ab negative will be recalled 12 months later to test for new HCV infections, providing estimates of the incidence rate. Patients diagnosed with HCV (~ 4,000) will be treated and tested for Sustained Virological Response (SVR). Questionnaires to assess risk factors, productivity, health care usage and quality of life will be completed at both the initial screening and at 12-month follow-up, allowing mathematical modelling and economic analysis to assess the current treatment strategies. Viral resistance will be analysed and patients who have successfully completed treatment will be retested 12 months later to estimate the rate of re-infection. CONCLUSION: The HepFREEPak study will provide evidence on the efficacy of available and widely used treatment options in Pakistan. It will also provide data on the incidence rate of primary infections and re-infections. Data on incidence risk factors will allow us to model and incorporate heterogeneity of risk and how that affects screening and treatment strategies. These data will identify any gaps in current test-and-treat programs to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04943588) on June 29, 2021.

Insights from a national survey in 2021 and from modelling on progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in the country of Georgia since 2015.

BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030.

Estimates of hepatitis B virus prevalence among general population and key risk groups in EU/EEA/UK countries: a systematic review.

BackgroundThe burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies across the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA).AimWe aimed to update the 2017 HBV prevalence estimates in EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom for 2018 to 2021.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, adding to HBV prevalence estimates from an existing (2005-2017) database. Databases were searched for original English-language research articles including HBV surface antigen prevalence estimates among the general population, pregnant women, first-time blood donors (FTB), men who have sex with men (MSM), migrants and people in prison. Country experts contributed grey literature data. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment framework.FindingsThe update provided 147 new prevalence estimates across the region (updated total n = 579). Median HBV prevalence in the general population was 0.5% and the highest was 3.8% (Greece). Among FTB, the highest prevalence was 0.8% (Lithuania). Estimates among pregnant women were highest in Romania and Italy (5.1%). Among migrants, the highest estimate was 31.7% (Spain). Relative to 2017 estimates, median prevalence among pregnant women decreased by 0.5% (to 0.3%) and increased by 0.9% (to 5.8%) among migrants. Among MSM, the highest estimate was 3.4% (Croatia). Prevalence among people in prison was highest in Greece (8.3%) and the median prevalence increased by 0.6% (to 2.1%).ConclusionsThe HBV prevalence is low in the general population and confined to risk populations in most European countries with some exceptions. Screening and treatment should be targeted to people in prison and migrants.