Identifying emerging hot spots of road traffic injury severity using spatiotemporal methods: longitudinal analyses on major roads in Ghana from 2005 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Although road traffic injuries and deaths have decreased globally, there is substantial national and sub-national heterogeneity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Ghana is one of few countries in Africa collecting comprehensive, spatially detailed data on motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). This data is a critical step towards improving roadway safety, as accurate and reliable information is essential for devising targeted countermeasures. METHODS: Here, we analyze 16 years of police-report data using emerging hot spot analysis in ArcGIS to identify hot spots with trends of increasing injury severity (a weighted composite measure of MVCs, minor injuries, severe injuries, and deaths), and counts of injuries, severe injuries, and deaths along major roads in urban and rural areas of Ghana. RESULTS: We find injury severity index sums and minor injury counts are significantly decreasing over time in Ghana while severe injury and death counts are not, indicating the latter should be the focus for road safety efforts. We identify new, consecutive, intensifying, and persistent hot spots on 2.65% of urban roads and 4.37% of rural roads. Hot spots are intensifying in terms of severity and frequency on major roads in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: A few key road sections, particularly in rural areas, show elevated levels of road traffic injury severity, warranting targeted interventions. Our method for evaluating spatiotemporal trends in MVC, road traffic injuries, and deaths in a LMIC includes sufficient detail for replication and adaptation in other countries, which is useful for targeting countermeasures and tracking progress.

Implementation outcomes of the integrated district evidence to action (IDEAs) program to reduce neonatal mortality in central Mozambique: an application of the RE-AIM evaluation framework.

BACKGROUND: Scarce evidence exists on audit and feedback implementation processes in low-resource health systems. The Integrated District Evidence to Action (IDEAs) is a multi-component audit and feedback strategy designed to improve the implementation of maternal and child guidelines in Mozambique. We report IDEAs implementation outcomes. METHODS: IDEAs was implemented in 154 health facilities across 12 districts in Manica and Sofala provinces between 2016 and 2020 and evaluated using a quasi-experimental design guided by the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Reach is the proportion of pregnant women attending IDEAs facilities. Adoption is the proportion of facilities initiating audit and feedback meetings. Implementation is the fidelity to the strategy components, including readiness assessments, meetings (frequency, participation, action plan development), and targeted financial support and supervision. Maintenance is the sustainment at 12, 24, and 54 months. RESULTS: Across both provinces, 56% of facilities were exposed to IDEAs (target 57%). Sixty-nine and 73% of pregnant women attended those facilities' first and fourth antenatal consultations (target 70%). All facilities adopted the intervention. 99% of the expected meetings occurred with an average interval of 5.9 out of 6 months. Participation of maternal and child managers was high, with 3076 attending meetings, of which 64% were from the facility, 29% from the district, and 7% from the province level. 97% of expected action plans were created, and 41 specific problems were identified. "Weak diagnosis or management of obstetric complications" was identified as the main problem, and "actions to reinforce norms and protocols" was the dominant subcategory of micro-interventions selected. Fidelity to semiannual readiness assessments was low (52% of expected facilities), and in completing micro-interventions (17% were completed). Ninety-six and 95% of facilities sustained the intervention at 12 and 24 months, respectively, and 71% had completed nine cycles at 54 months. CONCLUSION: Maternal and child managers can lead audit and feedback processes in primary health care in Mozambique with high reach, adoption, and maintenance. The IDEAs strategy should be adapted to promote higher fidelity around implementing action plans and conducting readiness assessments. Adding effectiveness to these findings will help to inform strategy scale-up.

State Policy Removing the Personal Belief Exemption for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) School Immunization Requirement, Washington State, 2014-2022.

Objectives. To assess the impact of Washington State's 2019 Engrossed House Bill (EHB) 1638-which removed measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) personal belief exemptions-on MMR vaccine series completion and exemption rates in K-12 students. Methods. We used interrupted time-series analyses to examine changes in MMR vaccine series completion rates before and after EHB 1638 was passed and the χ2 test for differences in exemption rates. Results. EHB 1638 implementation was associated with a 5.4% relative increase in kindergarten MMR vaccine series completion rates (95% confidence interval = 3.8%, 7.1%; P ≤ .001), and results were similar with Oregon as a control state (no change observed in Oregon; P = .68). MMR exemptions overall decreased 41% (from 3.1% in 2018-2019 to 1.8% in 2019-2020; P ≤ .001), and religious exemptions increased 367% (from 0.3% to 1.4%; P ≤ .001). Conclusions. EHB 1638 was associated with an increase in MMR vaccine series completion rates and a decrease in any MMR exemption. However, effects were partially offset by an increase in religious exemption rates. Public Health Implications. Removal of personal belief exemptions for the MMR immunization requirement only may be an effective approach to increase MMR vaccine coverage rates statewide and among underimmunized communities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(7):795-804. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307285).

Demonstration project of a lay counselor delivered trans-diagnostic mental health intervention for newly diagnosed HIV patients in Mozambique.

ABSTRACTCommon mental disorders (CMDs) are associated with poor HIV outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. The present study implemented a psychological therapy delivered in routine HIV care and examined its effects on HIV outcomes in Mozambique. The Common Elements Treatment Approach (CETA) was integrated into routine HIV care in Sofala, Mozambique for all newly-diagnosed HIV+ patients with CMD symptoms. HIV treatment initiation and retention were compared to overall facility averages (those enrolled in CETA + those not enrolled). Of 250 patients screened, 59% (n = 148 met the criteria for CETA enrollment, and 92.6 (n = 137) enrolled in CETA. After four CETA visits, CMD symptoms decreased >50% and suicidal ideation decreased 100%. Patients enrolling in CETA had an antiretroviral therapy initiation rate of 97.1%, one-month retention of 69.2%, and three-month retention of 82.4%. Patients in the comparison group had one-month retention of 66.0% and three-month retention of 68.0%. CETA may be a promising approach to reduce symptoms of CMDs and improve HIV care cascade outcomes in areas with high HIV prevalence.

Development of novel composite data quality scores to evaluate facility-level data quality in electronic data in Kenya: a nationwide retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In this evaluation, we aim to strengthen Routine Health Information Systems (RHIS) through the digitization of data quality assessment (DQA) processes. We leverage electronic data from the Kenya Health Information System (KHIS) which is based on the District Health Information System version 2 (DHIS2) to perform DQAs at scale. We provide a systematic guide to developing composite data quality scores and use these scores to assess data quality in Kenya. METHODS: We evaluated 187 HIV care facilities with electronic medical records across Kenya. Using quarterly, longitudinal KHIS data from January 2011 to June 2018 (total N = 30 quarters), we extracted indicators encompassing general HIV services including services to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). We assessed the accuracy (the extent to which data were correct and free of error) of these data using three data-driven composite scores: 1) completeness score; 2) consistency score; and 3) discrepancy score. Completeness refers to the presence of the appropriate amount of data. Consistency refers to uniformity of data across multiple indicators. Discrepancy (measured on a Z-scale) refers to the degree of alignment (or lack thereof) of data with rules that defined the possible valid values for the data. RESULTS: A total of 5,610 unique facility-quarters were extracted from KHIS. The mean completeness score was 61.1% [standard deviation (SD) = 27%]. The mean consistency score was 80% (SD = 16.4%). The mean discrepancy score was 0.07 (SD = 0.22). A strong and positive correlation was identified between the consistency score and discrepancy score (correlation coefficient = 0.77), whereas the correlation of either score with the completeness score was low with a correlation coefficient of -0.12 (with consistency score) and -0.36 (with discrepancy score). General HIV indicators were more complete, but less consistent, and less plausible than PMTCT indicators. CONCLUSION: We observed a lack of correlation between the completeness score and the other two scores. As such, for a holistic DQA, completeness assessment should be paired with the measurement of either consistency or discrepancy to reflect distinct dimensions of data quality. Given the complexity of the discrepancy score, we recommend the simpler consistency score, since they were highly correlated. Routine use of composite scores on KHIS data could enhance efficiencies in DQA at scale as digitization of health information expands and could be applied to other health sectors beyondHIV clinics.

Global influenza surveillance systems to detect the spread of influenza-negative influenza-like illness during the COVID-19 pandemic: Time series outlier analyses from 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance systems are important in detecting changes in disease patterns and can act as early warning systems for emerging disease outbreaks. We hypothesized that analysis of data from existing global influenza surveillance networks early in the COVID-19 pandemic could identify outliers in influenza-negative influenza-like illness (ILI). We used data-driven methods to detect outliers in ILI that preceded the first reported peaks of COVID-19. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System to evaluate time series outliers in influenza-negative ILI. Using automated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series outlier detection models and baseline influenza-negative ILI training data from 2015-2019, we analyzed 8,792 country-weeks across 28 countries to identify the first week in 2020 with a positive outlier in influenza-negative ILI. We present the difference in weeks between identified outliers and the first reported COVID-19 peaks in these 28 countries with high levels of data completeness for influenza surveillance data and the highest number of reported COVID-19 cases globally in 2020. To account for missing data, we also performed a sensitivity analysis using linear interpolation for missing observations of influenza-negative ILI. In 16 of the 28 countries (57%) included in this study, we identified positive outliers in cases of influenza-negative ILI that predated the first reported COVID-19 peak in each country; the average lag between the first positive ILI outlier and the reported COVID-19 peak was 13.3 weeks (standard deviation 6.8). In our primary analysis, the earliest outliers occurred during the week of January 13, 2020, in Peru, the Philippines, Poland, and Spain. Using linear interpolation for missing data, the earliest outliers were detected during the weeks beginning December 30, 2019, and January 20, 2020, in Poland and Peru, respectively. This contrasts with the reported COVID-19 peaks, which occurred on April 6 in Poland and June 1 in Peru. In many low- and middle-income countries in particular, the lag between detected outliers and COVID-19 peaks exceeded 12 weeks. These outliers may represent undetected spread of SARS-CoV-2, although a limitation of this study is that we could not evaluate SARS-CoV-2 positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Using an automated system of influenza-negative ILI outlier monitoring may have informed countries of the spread of COVID-19 more than 13 weeks before the first reported COVID-19 peaks. This proof-of-concept paper suggests that a system of influenza-negative ILI outlier monitoring could have informed national and global responses to SARS-CoV-2 during the rapid spread of this novel pathogen in early 2020.

Prevalence and correlates of suicidal behavior in primary care settings in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the prevalence of suicidal behavior and associated risk factors in public primary health care in Mozambique. METHODS: The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview was used to evaluate suicidal behavior among 502 adults attending three Primary Health Care (PHC) settings. RESULTS: In the past month, 13% (n = 63) of PHC attendees expressed suicidal ideation, 8% (n = 40) had made a suicide plan, 4% (n = 20) had made a suicide attempt, and 5% (n = 25) reported a lifetime suicide attempt. Females had 2.8-fold increased odds of suicide plan (95% CI: 1.5, 5.5) and 3.3-fold increased odds of suicide attempt in the past month (95% CI: 1.2, 9.1). Each 10-year increase in age was associated with 0.61-fold the odds of suicide plan (95% CI: 0.38, 0.98) and 0.09-fold the odds of suicide attempt (95% CI: 0.01, 0.69) in the past month. People living with HIV (PLWHA) had 2.2-fold increased adjusted odds of past month suicide attempt (CI: 1.1, 4.1). CONCLUSION: Suicidal behaviors are common among adults attending PHC clinics in Mozambique. Screening and linkage to effective preventive interventions are urgently needed in PHC settings. Females, younger individuals, and PLWHA are at elevated risk for suicidal behavior in PHC.

Using the RE-AIM framework to evaluate the implementation of scaling-up the Friendship Bench in Zimbabwe - a quantitative observational study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the real-world implementation of the Friendship Bench (FB) - an evidence-based brief psychological intervention delivered by community health workers (CHWs) - three years after its implementation in three city health departments in Zimbabwe. Implementation sites were evaluated according to their current performance using the RE-AIM framework making this one of the first evaluations of a scaled-up evidence-based psychological intervention in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: Using the RE-AIM guide ( www.re-aim.org ), the authors designed quantitative indicators based on existing FB implementation data. Thirty-six primary health care clinics (PHC) in Harare (n=28), Chitungwiza (n=4) and Gweru (n=4) were included. Among these clinics 20 were large comprehensive health care centers, 7 medium (mostly maternal and child healthcare) and 9 small clinics (basic medical care and acting as referral clinic). Existing data from these clinics, added to additionally collected data through interviews and field observations were used to investigate and compare the performance of the FB across clinics. The focus was on the RE-AIM domains of Reach, Adoption, and Implementation. RESULTS: Small clinics achieved 34% reach, compared to large (15%) and medium clinics (9%). Adoption was high in all clinic types, ranging from 59% to 71%. Small clinics led the implementation domain with 53%, followed by medium sized clinics 43% and large clinics 40%. Small clinics performed better in all indicators and differences in performance between small and large clinics were significant. Program activity and data quality depends on ongoing support for delivering agents and buy-in from health authorities. CONCLUSION: The Friendship Bench program was implemented over three years transitioning from a research-based implementation program to one led locally. The Reach domain showed the largest gap across clinics where larger clinics performed poorly relative to smaller clinics and should be a target for future implementation improvements. Program data needs to be integrated into existing health information systems. Future studies should seek to optimize scale-up and sustainment strategies to maintain effective task-shared psychological interventions in SSA.

Health system interventions for adults with type 2 diabetes in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Effective health system interventions may help address the disproportionate burden of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We assessed the impact of health system interventions to improve outcomes for adults with type 2 diabetes in LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, African Index Medicus, LILACS, and Global Index Medicus from inception of each database through February 24, 2020. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of health system interventions targeting adults with type 2 diabetes in LMICs. Eligible studies reported at least 1 of the following outcomes: glycemic change, mortality, quality of life, or cost-effectiveness. We conducted a meta-analysis for the glycemic outcome of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). GRADE and Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care methods were used to assess risk of bias for the glycemic outcome and to prepare a summary of findings table. Of the 12,921 references identified in searches, we included 39 studies in the narrative review of which 19 were cluster RCTs and 20 were individual RCTs. The greatest number of studies were conducted in the East Asia and Pacific region (n = 20) followed by South Asia (n = 7). There were 21,080 total participants enrolled across included studies and 10,060 total participants in the meta-analysis of HbA1c when accounting for the design effect of cluster RCTs. Non-glycemic outcomes of mortality, health-related quality of life, and cost-effectiveness had sparse data availability that precluded quantitative pooling. In the meta-analysis of HbA1c from 35 of the included studies, the mean difference was -0.46% (95% CI -0.60% to -0.31%, I2 87.8%, p < 0.001) overall, -0.37% (95% CI -0.64% to -0.10%, I2 60.0%, n = 7, p = 0.020) in multicomponent clinic-based interventions, -0.87% (-1.20% to -0.53%, I2 91.0%, n = 13, p < 0.001) in pharmacist task-sharing studies, and -0.27% (-0.50% to -0.04%, I2 64.1%, n = 7, p = 0.010) in trials of diabetes education or support alone. Other types of interventions had few included studies. Eight studies were at low risk of bias for the summary assessment of glycemic control, 15 studies were at unclear risk, and 16 studies were at high risk. The certainty of evidence for glycemic control by subgroup was moderate for multicomponent clinic-based interventions but was low or very low for other intervention types. Limitations include the lack of consensus definitions for health system interventions, differences in the quality of underlying studies, and sparse data availability for non-glycemic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we found that health system interventions for type 2 diabetes may be effective in improving glycemic control in LMICs, but few studies are available from rural areas or low- or lower-middle-income countries. Multicomponent clinic-based interventions had the strongest evidence for glycemic benefit among intervention types. Further research is needed to assess non-glycemic outcomes and to study implementation in rural and low-income settings.

Validity and item response theory properties of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 for primary care depression screening in Mozambique (PHQ-9-MZ).

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the leading causes of disability in Mozambique; however, few patients with depression are identified in primary care. To our knowledge, there are no validated tools for depression screening in Mozambique. The aim of this study was to validate the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) for use in primary care settings in Mozambique. METHODS: The PHQ-9 was adapted using a structured multi-phase process led by a team of bilingual experts followed by a review by lay individuals and pilot-testing including cognitive interviews. The final Mozambican PHQ-9 (PHQ-9-MZ) was applied among 502 individuals randomly selected from antenatal, postpartum, and general outpatient consultations in three Ministry of Health primary healthcare clinics in Sofala Province, Mozambique. The PHQ-9-MZ was evaluated against the MINI 5.0-MZ as a gold standard diagnostic tool. RESULTS: The majority of participants were female (74%), with a mean age of 28. Using the MINI 5.0-MZ, 43 (9%) of the sample tested positive for major depressive disorder. Items of the PHQ-9-MZ showed good discrimination and factor loadings. One latent factor of depression explained 54% of the variance in scores. Questions 3 (sleep) and 5 (appetite) had the lowest item discrimination and factor loadings. The PHQ-9-MZ showed good internal consistency, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.84, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.89). The PHQ-2-MZ had an AUROC of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.85). Using a cut-point of ≥9, the PHQ-9-MZ had a sensitivity of 46.5% and a specificity of 93.5%. Using a cut-point of ≥2, the PHQ-2-MZ had a sensitivity of 74.4% and a specificity of 71.7%. Increasing the cut-point to ≥3, the PHQ-2-MZ has a sensitivity of 32.6% and a specificity of 94.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The PHQ-9-MZ and PHQ-2-MZ emerge as two valid alternatives for screening for depression in primary health care settings in Mozambique. Depending on program needs and weighing the value of minimizing false positives and false negatives, the PHQ-9-MZ can be employed with cut-points ranging from ≥8 to ≥11, and the PHQ-2-MZ with cut-points ranging from ≥2 to ≥3.

The prevalence of hypertension and its distribution by sociodemographic factors in Central Mozambique: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension (HTN) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and its prevalence has been rising in low- and middle-income countries. The current study describes HTN prevalence in central Mozambique, association between wealth and blood pressure (BP), and HTN monitoring and diagnosis practice among individuals with elevated BP. METHODS: The study used data from a cross-sectional, representative household survey conducted in Manica and Sofala provinces, Mozambique. There were 4101 respondents, aged ≥20 years. We measured average systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP) from three measurements taken in the household setting. Elevated BP was defined as having either SBP ≥140 or DBP ≥90 mmHg. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 36.7 years old, 59.9% were women, and 72.5% were from rural areas. Adjusting for complex survey weights, 15.7% (95%CI: 14.0 to 17.4) of women and 16.1% (13.9 to 18.5) of men had elevated BP, and 7.5% (95% CI: 6.4 to 8.7) of the overall population had both SBP ≥140 and DBP ≥90 mmHg. Among participants with elevated BP, proportions of participants who had previous BP measurement and HTN diagnosis were both low (34.9% (95% CI: 30.0 to 40.1) and 12.2% (9.9 to 15.0) respectively). Prior BP measurement and HTN diagnosis were more commonly reported among hypertensive participants with secondary or higher education, from urban areas, and with highest relative wealth. In adjusted models, wealth was positively associated with higher SBP and DBP. CONCLUSIONS: The current study found evidence of positive association between wealth and BP. The prevalence of elevated BP was lower in Manica and Sofala provinces than the previously estimated national prevalence. Previous BP screening and HTN diagnosis were uncommon in our study population, especially among rural residents, individuals with lower education levels, and those with relatively less wealth. As the epidemiological transition advances in Mozambique, there is a need to develop and implement strategies to increase BP screening and deliver appropriate clinical services, as well as to encourage lifestyle changes among people at risk of developing hypertension in near future.

Making Smarter Decisions Faster: Systems Engineering to Improve the Global Public Health Response to HIV.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review offers an operational definition of systems engineering (SE) as applied to public health, reviews applications of SE in the field of HIV, and identifies opportunities and challenges of broader application of SE in global health. RECENT FINDINGS: SE involves the deliberate sequencing of three steps: diagnosing a problem, evaluating options using modeling or optimization, and providing actionable recommendations. SE includes diverse tools (from process improvement to mathematical modeling) applied to decisions at various levels (from local staffing decisions to planning national-level roll-out of new interventions). Contextual factors are crucial to effective decision-making, but there are gaps in understanding global decision-making processes. Integrating SE into pre-service training and translating SE tools to be more accessible could increase utilization of SE approaches in global health. SE is a promising, but under-recognized approach to improve public health response to HIV globally.

Depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, and mental health care-seeking in central Mozambique.

PURPOSE: There is scant research on depressive symptoms (DS), suicidal ideation (SI), and mental health care-seeking in Mozambique. METHODS: Generalized estimating equations were used to assess factors associated with DS, SI, and mental health care-seeking among 3080 individuals interviewed in a representative household survey in Sofala and Manica provinces, Mozambique. RESULTS: 19% (CI 17-21%) of respondents reported DS in the past year and 17% (CI 15-18%) lifetime SI. Overall, only 10% (CI 8-11%) of respondents ever sought any care for mental illness, though 26% (CI 23-29%) of those reporting DS and/or SI sought care. 90% of those who sought care for DS received treatment; however, only 46% of those who sought care for SI received treatment. Factors associated with DS and SI include: female gender, divorced/separated, widowed, and > 55 years old. Respondents in the bottom wealth quintile reported lower DS, while those in upper wealth quintiles reported higher prevalence of SI. Individuals with DS or SI had significantly elevated measures of disability-especially in doing household chores, work/school activities, standing for long periods, and walking long distances. Factors associated with care-seeking include: female gender, rural residence, divorced/separated, and > 45 years old. Individuals in lower wealth quintiles and with no religious affiliation had lower odds of seeking care. CONCLUSIONS: DS and SI are prevalent in central Mozambique and treatment gaps are high (68% and 89%, respectively). An urgent need exists for demand- and supply-side interventions to optimize the delivery of comprehensive community-based mental healthcare in Mozambique.

Geographic distribution and determinants of mental health stigma in central Mozambique.

PURPOSE: This study describes patterns of community-level stigmatizing attitudes towards mental illness (MI) in central Mozambique. METHODS: Data for this study come from a representative community household survey of 2933 respondents ≥ 18 years old in Manica and Sofala Provinces, Mozambique. Six MI stigma questions represented primary research outcomes. Bivariate and multivariable analyses examined the relationship between key explanatory factors and each stigma question. Spatial analyses analyzed the smoothed geographic distribution of responses to each question and explored the association between geographic location and MI stigma controlling for individual-level socio-demographic factors. RESULTS: Stigmatizing attitudes towards MI are prevalent in central Mozambique. Analyses showed that males, people who live in urban places, divorced and widowed individuals, people aged 18-24, people with lower education, people endorsing no religion, and people in lower wealth quintiles tended to have significantly higher levels of stigmatizing attitudes towards MI. Individuals reporting depressive symptoms scored significantly higher on stigmatizing questions, potentially indicating internalized stigma. Geographic location is significantly associated with people's response to five of the stigma questions even after adjusting for individual-level factors. CONCLUSION: Stigmatizing attitudes towards MI are common in central Mozambique and concentrated amongst specific socio-demographic groups. However, geographic analyses suggest that structural factors within communities and across regions may bear a greater influence on MI stigma than individual-level factors alone. Further implementation science should consider focusing on identifying the most significant modifiable structural factors associated with MI stigma in LMICs to inform the development, testing, and optimization of multi-level stigma prevention interventions.

The 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak and primary healthcare delivery in Liberia: Time-series analyses for 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to estimate the immediate and lasting effects of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak on public-sector primary healthcare delivery in Liberia using 7 years of comprehensive routine health information system data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed 10 key primary healthcare indicators before, during, and after the EVD outbreak using 31,836 facility-month service outputs from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016 across a census of 379 public-sector health facilities in Liberia (excluding Montserrado County). All indicators had statistically significant decreases during the first 4 months of the EVD outbreak, with all indicators having their lowest raw mean outputs in August 2014. Decreases in outputs comparing the end of the initial EVD period (September 2014) to May 2014 (pre-EVD) ranged in magnitude from a 67.3% decrease in measles vaccinations (95% CI: -77.9%, -56.8%, p < 0.001) and a 61.4% decrease in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) treatments for malaria (95% CI: -69.0%, -53.8%, p < 0.001) to a 35.2% decrease in first antenatal care (ANC) visits (95% CI: -45.8%, -24.7%, p < 0.001) and a 38.5% decrease in medroxyprogesterone acetate doses (95% CI: -47.6%, -29.5%, p < 0.001). Following the nadir of system outputs in August 2014, all indicators showed statistically significant increases from October 2014 to December 2014. All indicators had significant positive trends during the post-EVD period, with every system output exceeding pre-Ebola forecasted trends for 3 consecutive months by November 2016. Health system outputs lost during and after the EVD outbreak were large and sustained for most indicators. Prior to exceeding pre-EVD forecasted trends for 3 months, we estimate statistically significant cumulative losses of -776,110 clinic visits (95% CI: -1,480,896, -101,357, p = 0.030); -24,449 bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccinations (95% CI: -45,947, -2,020, p = 0.032); -9,129 measles vaccinations (95% CI: -12,312, -5,659, p < 0.001); -17,191 postnatal care (PNC) visits within 6 weeks of birth (95% CI: -28,344, -5,775, p = 0.002); and -101,857 ACT malaria treatments (95% CI: -205,839, -2,139, p = 0.044) due to the EVD outbreak. Other outputs showed statistically significant cumulative losses only through December 2014, including losses of -12,941 first pentavalent vaccinations (95% CI: -20,309, -5,527, p = 0.002); -5,122 institutional births (95% CI: -8,767, -1,234, p = 0.003); and -45,024 acute respiratory infections treated (95% CI: -66,185, -24,019, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, medroxyprogesterone acetate doses and first ANC visits did not show statistically significant net losses. ACT treatment for malaria was the only indicator with an estimated net increase in system outputs through December 2016, showing an excess of +78,583 outputs (95% CI: -309,417, +450,661, p = 0.634) compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, although this increase was not statistically significant. However, comparing December 2013 to December 2017, ACT malaria cases have increased 49.2% (95% CI: 33.9%, 64.5%, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, there remains a statistically significant loss of -15,144 PNC visits within 6 weeks (95% CI: -29,453, -787, p = 0.040) through December 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The Liberian public-sector primary healthcare system has made strides towards recovery from the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak. All primary healthcare indicators tracked have recovered to pre-EVD levels as of November 2016. Yet, for most indicators, it took more than 1 year to recover to pre-EVD levels. During this time, large losses of essential primary healthcare services occurred compared to what would have been expected had the EVD outbreak not occurred. The disruption of malaria case management during the EVD outbreak may have resulted in increased malaria cases. Large and sustained investments in public-sector primary care health system strengthening are urgently needed for EVD-affected countries.

Treatment outcomes of TB-infected individuals attending public sector primary care clinics in rural Liberia from 2015 to 2017: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: In June 2015, Partners in Health (PIH) and the Liberian Ministry of Health began a community health worker (CHW) programme containing food support, reimbursement of transport and social assistance to address gaps in tuberculosis (TB) treatment exacerbated by the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic. The purpose of this article was to analyse the performance of routine clinical TB care and the effects of this CHW programme. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study utilising data from TB patient registers at a census of all health facilities treating TB in the south-east region of Liberia from January 2015 - April 2017. Competing risks Cox regression analyses were used to generate subhazard ratios (sHR) analysing factors associated with rates of TB cure (smear negative), treatment completion (no smear), lost to follow-up (LTFU) and death. RESULTS: LTFU rates decreased 76% pre- vs. post-CHW intervention, from 14.6% in pre-intervention to 3.4% post-intervention (P < 0.001). Although the post-intervention had better cure rates (sHR 1.07, CI 0.58-1.9), treatment completion (sHR 1.53, CI 1.00 2.39) and lower death rates (sHR 0.64, CI 0.34-1.2), statistical significance was not reached. Younger patients had significantly lower death and cure rates, while older patients had higher LTFU and cure rates. Overall, 31% of patients were cured, 44% completed treatment without a confirmatory smear, 5% were LTFU, 9% died, 0.5% failed treatment, and 10% transferred out. CONCLUSIONS: In challenging environments, LTFU can be reduced by CHW accompaniment and socio-economic assistance to patients with TB. Approaches are needed to improve cure verification in young patients and reduce mortality.

Small area estimation of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia using spatially misaligned data.

BACKGROUND: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes). METHODS: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

Developing a representative community health survey sampling frame using open-source remote satellite imagery in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Lack of accurate data on the distribution of sub-national populations in low- and middle-income countries impairs planning, monitoring, and evaluation of interventions. Novel, low-cost methods to develop unbiased survey sampling frames at sub-national, sub-provincial, and even sub-district levels are urgently needed. This article details our experience using remote satellite imagery to develop a provincial-level representative community survey sampling frame to evaluate the effects of a 7-year health system intervention in Sofala Province, Mozambique. METHODS: Mozambique's most recent census was conducted in 2007, and no data are readily available to generate enumeration areas for representative health survey sampling frames. To remedy this, we partnered with the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team to digitize every building in Sofala and Manica provinces (685,189 Sofala; 925,713 Manica) using up-to-date remote satellite imagery, with final results deposited in the open-source OpenStreetMap database. We then created a probability proportional to size sampling frame by overlaying a grid of 2.106 km resolution (0.02 decimal degrees) across each province, and calculating the number of buildings within each grid square. Squares containing buildings were used as our primary sampling unit with replacement. Study teams navigated to the geographic center of each selected square using geographic positioning system coordinates, and then conducted a standard "random walk" procedure to select 20 households for each time a given square was selected. Based on sample size calculations, we targeted a minimum of 1500 households in each province. We selected 88 grids within each province to reach 1760 households, anticipating ongoing conflict and transport issues could preclude the inclusion of some clusters. RESULTS: Civil conflict issues forced the exclusion of 8 of 31 subdistricts in Sofala and 15 of 39 subdistricts in Manica. Using Android tablets, Open Data Kit software, and a remote RedCap data capture system, our final sample included 1549 households in Sofala (4669 adults; 4766 children; 33 missing age) and 1538 households in Manica (4422 adults; 4898 children; 33 missing age). CONCLUSIONS: Other implementation or evaluation teams may consider employing similar methods to track population distributions for health systems planning or the development of representative sampling frames using remote satellite imagery.

"My Heart Die in Me": Idioms of Distress and the Development of a Screening Tool for Mental Suffering in Southeast Liberia.

The integration of culturally salient idioms of distress into mental healthcare delivery is essential for effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment. This study systematically explored idioms, explanatory models, and conceptualizations in Maryland County, Liberia to develop a culturally-resonant screening tool for mental distress. We employed a sequential mixed-methods process of: (1) free-lists and semi-structured interviews (n = 20); patient chart reviews (n = 315); (2) pile-sort exercises, (n = 31); and (3) confirmatory focus group discussions (FGDs); (n = 3) from June to December 2017. Free-lists identified 64 idioms of distress, 36 of which were eliminated because they were poorly understood, stigmatizing, irrelevant, or redundant. The remaining 28 terms were used in pile-sort exercises to visualize the interrelatedness of idioms. Confirmatory FDGs occurred before and after the pile-sort exercise to explain findings. Four categories of idioms resulted, the most substantial of which included terms related to the heart and to the brain/mind. The final screening tool took into account 11 idioms and 6 physical symptoms extracted from patient chart reviews. This study provides the framework for culturally resonant mental healthcare by cataloguing language around mental distress and designing an emic screening tool for validation in a clinical setting.

Data-driven quality improvement in low-and middle-income country health systems: lessons from seven years of implementation experience across Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Well-functioning health systems need to utilize data at all levels, from the provider, to local and national-level decision makers, in order to make evidence-based and needed adjustments to improve the quality of care provided. Over the last 7 years, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation's African Health Initiative funded health systems strengthening projects at the facility, district, and/or provincial level to improve population health. Increasing data-driven decision making was a common strategy in Mozambique, Rwanda and Zambia. This paper describes the similar and divergent approaches to increase data-driven quality of care improvements (QI) and implementation challenge and opportunities encountered in these three countries. METHODS: Eight semi-structured in-depth interviews (IDIs) were administered to program staff working in each country. IDIs for this paper included principal investigators of each project, key program implementers (medically-trained support staff, data managers and statisticians, and country directors), as well as Ministry of Health counterparts. IDI data were collected through field notes; interviews were not audio recorded. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis but no systematic coding was conducted. IDIs were supplemented through donor report abstractions, a structured questionnaire, one-on-one phone calls, and email exchanges with country program leaders to clarify and expand on key themes emerging from IDIs. RESULTS: Project successes ranged from over 450 collaborative action-plans developed, implemented, and evaluated in Mozambique, to an increase from <10% to >80% of basic clinical protocols followed in intervention facilities in rural Zambia, and a shift from a lack of awareness of health data among health system staff to collaborative ownership of data and using data to drive change in Rwanda. CONCLUSION: Based on common successes across the country experiences, we recommend future data-driven QI interventions begin with data quality assessments to promote that rapid health system improvement is possible, ensure confidence in available data, serve as the first step in data-driven targeted improvements, and improve staff data analysis and visualization skills. Explicit Ministry of Health collaborative engagement can ensure performance review is collaborative and internally-driven rather than viewed as an external "audit."