Global population profile of tropical cyclone exposure from 2002 to 2019.

Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event1-4. Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events5. Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global6 and do not consider population vulnerabilities7. Here we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (less than 5 years old) and towards older people (more than 60 years old) in recent years compared with the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones.

Food Insecurity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Mixed-Methods Study from a Cohort of HIV Clients in Uganda.

The COVID-19 pandemic threatens the food security of people in low-income countries. This is important for people living with HIV (PLWH) because HIV medication should be taken with food to avoid side-effects. We used survey data (n = 314) and qualitative interviews (n = 95) to longitudinally explore how the pandemic impacted food insecurity among PLWH in Kampala, Uganda. Prior to March 2020, 19.7% of respondents were food insecure. Our regression models estimate that food insecurity rose by 9.1 percentage points in our first round of surveys (June-September 2020; p < 0.05; t = 2.17), increasing to 17.2 percentage points in the second round of surveys (July-November 2021; p < 0.05; t = 2.32). Qualitative interviews reveal that employment loss and deteriorating support systems led to reduced meals and purchasing of cheaper foods. Respondents reported continuing to take their HIV medication even in the presence of food insecurity. Strategies for ensuring that PLWH have enough food should be prioritized so that the millions of PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa can take their medication without experiencing uncomfortable side-effects.Clinical Trials Registration Number NCT03494777.

A qualitative exploration of health-related present bias among HIV-positive adults in Uganda.

Decision-making errors such as present bias (PB) can have important consequences for health behaviors, but have been largely studied in the financial domain. We conducted a mixed-method study on PB in the context of ART adherence among clinic-enrolled adults in Uganda (n = 39). Specifically, we quantified PB by asking about preferences between medication available sooner to minimize headaches versus available later to cure headaches. We describe demographic similarities among PB participants and qualitatively explored how participants reflected on their PB (or absence thereof) in the context of health. Participants reporting PB were predominantly male, single/unmarried, older, had higher levels of education and income and more advanced HIV progression. Three common reasons for more present-biased choices provided were: (1) wanting to avoid pain, (2) wanting to return to work, and (3) fear of one's health worsening if s/he did not address their illness immediately. While PB in the financial domain often suggests that poorer individuals are more likely to prefer immediate rewards over their wealthier counterparts, our results suggest poor health is potentially a driving factor of PB. Further research is needed to build on these finding and inform how programs can frame key messages regarding ART adherence to patients displaying PB.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03494777.

Increased Depression during COVID-19 Lockdown Associated with Food Insecurity and Antiretroviral Non-Adherence among People Living with HIV in Uganda.

The health and economic threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic can be sources of great distress among people living with HIV, which in turn can impact the management of their HIV disease. We examined change in depression from pre- to post-lockdown restrictions and correlates of elevated depressive symptoms, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. Participants enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of an ART adherence intervention in Uganda. The month-12 follow-up assessment was fully administered just prior to the start of the pandemic-related lockdown in March 2020; at the conclusion of the lockdown three months later, we administered a mixed-methods phone-based assessment. ART adherence was electronically monitored throughout the study period, including during and after the lockdown. Depression was assessed with the 8-item Patient health questionnaire (PHQ-8), on which scores > 9 signify a positive screen for elevated depressive symptoms. A sample of 280 participants completed both the month-12 and post-lockdown assessments. Rates of elevated depressive symptoms nearly tripled from month 12 (n = 17, 6.1%) to the post-lockdown assessment (n = 50, 17.9%; McNemar test < .001). Elevated depressive symptoms at post-lockdown were associated with being female, indicators of economic struggles at month 12 (unemployment, low income, high food insecurity), and lower ART adherence during the 3-month lockdown period [mean of 71.9% (SD = 27.9) vs. 80.8% (SD = 24.1) among those not depressed; p = .041] in bivariate analysis. In multiple regression analysis, higher food insecurity [adj. OR (95% CI) = 4.64 (2.16-9.96)] and perception that the pandemic negatively impacted ART adherence [adj. OR (95% CI) = 1.96 (1.22-3.16)] remained associated with a greater likelihood of elevated depressive symptoms, when other correlates were controlled for. Qualitative data suggested that economic stressors (lack of food, work, and money) were key contributors to elevated depressive symptoms, and these stressors led to missed ART doses because of lack of food and stress induced forgetfulness. Elevated depressive symptoms significantly increased during the COVID-19 lockdown and was associated with food insecurity and reduced ART adherence. Mechanisms for identifying and treating depression and food insecurity are needed to help PLHIV cope with and mitigate the harmful effects of unexpected crises that may impede disease management and access to food.

"The one who doesn't take ART medication has no wealth at all and no purpose on Earth" - a qualitative assessment of how HIV-positive adults in Uganda understand the health and wealth-related benefits of ART.

BACKGROUND: Increases in life expectancy from antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence future health and wealth among people living with HIV (PLWH). What remains unknown is how PLWH in care perceive the benefits of ART adherence, particularly in terms of improving health and wealth in the short and long-term at the individual, household, and structural levels. Understanding future-oriented attitudes towards ART may help policymakers tailor care and treatment programs with both short and long-term-term health benefits in mind, to improve HIV-related outcomes for PLWH. METHODS: In this qualitative study, we conducted semi-structured interviews among a subsample of 40 PLWH in care at a clinic in Uganda participating in a randomized clinical trial for treatment adherence in Uganda (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03494777). Interviews were transcribed verbatim and translated from Luganda into English. Two co-authors independently reviewed transcripts, developed a detailed codebook, achieved 93% agreement on double-coded interviews, and analyzed data using inductive and deductive content analysis. Applying the social-ecological framework at the individual, household, and structural levels, we examined how PLWH perceived health and wealth-related benefits to ART. RESULTS: Our findings revealed several benefits of ART expressed by PLWH, going beyond the short-term health benefits to also include long-term economic benefits. Such benefits largely focused on the ability of PLWH to live longer and be physically and mentally healthy, while also fulfilling responsibilities at the individual level pertaining to themselves (especially in terms of positive long-term habits and motivation to work harder), at the household level pertaining to others (such as improved relations with family and friends), and at the structural level pertaining to society (in terms of reduced stigma, increased comfort in disclosure, and higher levels of civic responsibility). CONCLUSIONS: PLWH consider short and long-term health benefits of ART. Programming designed to shape ART uptake and increase adherence should emphasize the broader benefits of ART at various levels. Having such benefits directly integrated into the design of clinic-based HIV interventions can be useful especially for PLWH who face competing interests to increase medication adherence. These benefits can ultimately help providers and policymakers better understand PLWH's decision-making as it relates to improving ART-related outcomes.

HIV Care Experiences During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Mixed-Methods Telephone Interviews with Clinic-Enrolled HIV-Infected Adults in Uganda.

COVID-19 measures that restrict movement may negatively impact access to HIV care and treatment. To contribute to the currently limited evidence, we used telephone interviews with quantitative and qualitative questions to examine how clients perceived COVID-19 and its effect on their HIV care and ART adherence. One hundred (n = 100) Ugandan adults on ART from an existing study were randomly selected and enrolled. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using descriptive statistics and rapid content analyses. 76% of clients indicated that COVID-19 negatively impacted travel to HIV clinics; 54% perceived that coming to the clinic increased their risk of acquiring COVID-19; and 14% said that COVID-19 had negatively impacted their ART adherence. Qualitative feedback suggests that fear of COVID-19 infection discouraged clinic attendance while stay-at-home orders helped routinize ART adherence and employ new community-based approaches for HIV care. Addressing negative unintended consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns on HIV care is urgently needed.

Measuring Family Planning Provider Bias: A Discrete Choice Experiment among Burkinabé, Pakistani, and Tanzanian Providers.

The unmet need for modern contraception remains high around the world, particularly for youth. While some of this unmet need is driven by limited health infrastructure and method mix availability, many adolescents who visit family planning providers still do not receive methods that fit their needs. This suggests that providers may be biased against youth and that interventions to change provider behavior could help close this gap. However, it is unclear if this bias is a result of age or other characteristics common among young women such as not being married and not having children. We use a discrete choice experiment in Burkina Faso, Pakistan, and Tanzania to disentangle the effects of age on providers' decisions to provide contraception from the effects of other potential confounding factors. We find that, although young women may experience the most bias, age is not the main driver. Rather, marital status and parity seem to influence provider decisions to offer services or counsel on modern methods. These findings suggest that interventions to reduce provider bias should focus on changing behavior towards unmarried and nulliparous women, regardless of their age.

The acceptability and feasibility of a pilot study examining the impact of a mobile technology-based intervention informed by behavioral economics to improve HIV knowledge and testing frequency among Latinx sexual minority men and transgender women.

BACKGROUND: We developed a novel intervention that uses behavioral economics incentives and mobile-health text messages to increase HIV knowledge and testing frequency among Latinx sexual minority men and Latinx transgender women. Here we provide a theoretically-grounded assessment regarding the intervention's acceptability and feasibility. METHODS: We conducted 30-min exit interviews with a stratified sample of participants (n = 26 Latinx sexual minority men, 15 Latinx transgender women), supplemented with insights from study staff (n = 6). All interviews were recorded, transcribed, and translated for a content analysis using Dedoose. Cohen's Kappa was 89.4% across coded excerpts. We evaluated acceptability based on how participants cognitively and emotionally reacted to the intervention and whether they considered it to be appropriate. We measured feasibility based on resource, scientific and process assessments (e.g., functionality of text messaging service, feedback on study recruitment procedures and surveys). RESULTS: Regarding acceptability, most participants clearly understood the intervention as a program to receive information about HIV prevention methods through text messages. Participants who did not complete the intervention shared they did not fully understand what it entailed at their initial enrollment, and thought it was a one-time engagement and not an ongoing program. Though some participants with a higher level of education felt the information was simplistic, most appreciated moving beyond a narrow focus on HIV to include general information on sexually transmitted infections; drug use and impaired sexual decision-making; and differential risks associated with sexual positions and practices. Latinx transgender women in particular appreciated receiving information about Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis. While participants didn't fully understand the exact chances of winning a prize in the quiz component, most enjoyed the quizzes and chance of winning a prize. Participants appreciated that the intervention required a minimal time investment. Participants shared that the intervention was generally culturally appropriate. Regarding feasibility, most participants reported the text message platform worked well though inactive participants consistently said technical difficulties led to their disengagement. Staff shared that clients had varying reactions to being approached while being tested for HIV, with some unwilling to enroll and others being very open and curious about the program. Both staff and participants relayed concerns regarding the length of the recruitment process and study surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Our theoretically-grounded assessment shows the intervention is both acceptable and feasible. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on May 5, 2017 with the ClinicalTrials.gov registry [ NCT03144336 ].

Incentives Versus Defaults: Cost-Effectiveness of Behavioral Approaches for HIV Screening.

Many HIV positive individuals are still undiagnosed, which has led health systems to try many approaches to expand HIV testing. In a randomized controlled trial, we found that behavioral economics interventions (opt-out testing and financial incentives) each improved HIV testing rates and these approaches are being implemented by several hospital systems. However, it is unclear if these strategies are cost-effective. We quantified the cost-effectiveness of different behavioral approaches to HIV screening-opt-out testing, financial incentives, and their combination-in terms of cost per new HIV diagnosis and infections averted. We estimated the incremental number of new HIV diagnoses and program costs using a mathematical screening model, and infections averted using and HIV transmission model. We used a 1-year time horizon and a hospital perspective. Switching from opt-into opt-out results in 39 additional diagnoses (56% increase) after 1-year at a cost of $3807 per new diagnosis. Switching from no incentive to a $1, $5, or $10 incentive adds 14, 13, and 28 new diagnoses (20, 19, and 41% increases) at a cost of $11,050, $17,984, and $15,298 per new diagnosis, respectively. Layering on financial incentives to opt-out testing enhances program effectiveness, though at a greater marginal cost per diagnosis. We found a similar pattern for infections averted. This is one of the first cost-effectiveness analyses of behavioral economics interventions in public health. Changing the choice architecture from opt-into opt-out and giving financial incentives for testing are both cost-effective in terms of detecting HIV and reducing transmission. For hospitals interested in increasing HIV screening rates, changing the choice architecture is an efficient strategy and more efficient than incentives.

A randomized controlled trial study of the acceptability, feasibility, and preliminary impact of SITA (SMS as an Incentive To Adhere): a mobile technology-based intervention informed by behavioral economics to improve ART adherence among youth in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Studies report serious adherence problems among youth (individuals age 15-24 years of age) in Uganda. Recent growth in mobile phone ownership has highlighted the potential of using text-based interventions to improve antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence among Ugandan youth. We piloted a randomized controlled trial of a text-based intervention providing weekly real-time antiretroviral adherence feedback, based on information from a smart pill box, to HIV-positive Ugandan youth. In this paper, we report the acceptability, feasibility, and preliminary impact of the intervention. METHODS: We randomized participants to a control group, or to receive messages with information on either their own adherence levels (Treatment 1 - T1), or their own adherence and peer adherence levels (Treatment 2 - T2). We conducted six focus groups from December 2016 to March 2017 with providers and youth ages 15-24, double coded 130 excerpts, and achieved a pooled Cohen's Kappa of 0.79 and 0.80 based on 34 randomly selected excerpts. RESULTS: The quantitative and qualitative data show that the intervention was deemed acceptable and feasible. After controlling for baseline adherence, the T1 group had 3.8 percentage point lower adherence than the control group (95% CI -9.9, 2.3) and the T2 group had 2.4 percentage points higher adherence than the control group (95% CI -3.0, 7.9). However, there was an increasing treatment effect over time for the T2 group with the largest effect towards the end of the study; a 2.5 percentage point increase in the initial 9-weeks that grows steadily to 9.0 percentage points by the last 9-weeks of the study. We find negative treatment effects for T1 in 3 of the 4 9-week intervals. This pilot study was not designed to detect statistically significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: Improving youth's adherence by supplementing information about their adherence with information about the adherence of peers is a promising new strategy that should be further evaluated in a fully-powered study. Providing one's own adherence information alone appears to have less potential. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02514356 07/30/2015.

The role of price and convenience in use of oral rehydration salts to treat child diarrhea: A cluster randomized trial in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Over half a million children die each year of diarrheal illness, although nearly all deaths could be prevented with oral rehydration salts (ORS). The literature on ORS documents both impressive health benefits and persistent underuse. At the same time, little is known about why ORS is underused and what can be done to increase use. We hypothesized that price and inconvenience are important barriers to ORS use and tested whether eliminating financial and access constraints increases ORS coverage. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In July of 2016, we recruited 118 community health workers (CHWs; representing 10,384 households) in Central and Eastern Uganda to participate in the study. Study villages were predominantly peri-urban, and most caretakers had no more than primary school education. In March of 2017, we randomized CHWs to one of four methods of ORS distribution: (1) free delivery of ORS prior to illness (free and convenient); (2) home sales of ORS prior to illness (convenient only); (3) free ORS upon retrieval using voucher (free only); and (4) status quo CHW distribution, where ORS is sold and not delivered (control). CHWs offered zinc supplements in addition to ORS in all treatment arms (free in groups 1 and 3 and for sale in group 2), following international treatment guidelines. We used household surveys to measure ORS (primary outcome) and ORS + zinc use 4 weeks after the interventions began (between April and May 2017). We assessed impact using an intention-to-treat (ITT) framework. During follow-up, we identified 2,363 child cases of diarrhea within 4 weeks of the survey (584 in free and convenient [25.6% of households], 527 in convenient only [26.1% of households], 648 in free only [26.8% of households], and 597 in control [28.5% of households]). The share of cases treated with ORS was 77% (448/584) in the free and convenient group, 64% (340/527) in the convenient only group, 74% (447/648) in the free only group, and 56% (335/597) in the control group. After adjusting for potential confounders, instructing CHWs to provide free and convenient distribution increased ORS coverage by 19 percentage points relative to the control group (95% CI 13-26; P < 0.001), 12 percentage points relative to convenient only (95% CI 6-18; P < 0.001), and 2 percentage points (not significant) relative to free only (95% CI -4 to 8; P = 0.38). Effect sizes were similar, but more pronounced, for the use of both ORS and zinc. Limitations include short follow-up period, self-reported outcomes, and limited generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Most caretakers of children with diarrhea in low-income countries seek care in the private sector where they are required to pay for ORS. However, our results suggest that price is an important barrier to ORS use and that switching to free distribution by CHWs substantially increases ORS coverage. Switching to free distribution is low-cost, easily scalable, and could substantially reduce child mortality. Convenience was not important in this context. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registry number AEARCTR-0001288.

Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: A substantial portion of child deaths in Africa take place in countries with recent history of armed conflict and political instability. However, the extent to which armed conflict is an important cause of child mortality, especially in Africa, remains unknown. METHODS: We matched child survival with proximity to armed conflict using information in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset on the location and intensity of armed conflict from 1995 to 2015 together with the location, timing, and survival of infants younger than 1 year (primary outcome) in 35 African countries. We measured the increase in mortality risk for infants exposed to armed conflicts within 50 km in the year of birth and, to study conflicts' extended health risks, up to 250 km away and 10 years before birth. We also examined the effects of conflicts of varying intensity and chronicity (conflicts lasting several years), and effect heterogeneity by residence and sex of the child. We then estimated the number and portion of deaths of infants younger than 1 year related to conflict. FINDINGS: We identified 15 441 armed conflict events that led to 968 444 combat-related deaths and matched these data with 1·99 million births and 133 361 infant deaths (infant mortality of 67 deaths per 1000 births) between 1995 and 2015. A child born within 50 km of an armed conflict had a risk of dying before reaching age 1 year of 5·2 per 1000 births higher than being born in the same region during periods without conflict (95% CI 3·7-6·7; a 7·7% increase above baseline). This increased risk of dying ranged from a 3·0% increase for armed conflicts with one to four deaths to a 26·7% increase for armed conflicts with more than 1000 deaths. We find evidence of increased mortality risk from an armed conflict up to 100 km away, and for 8 years after conflicts, with cumulative increase in infant mortality two to four times higher than the contemporaneous increase. In the entire continent, the number of infant deaths related to conflict from 1995 to 2015 was between 3·2 and 3·6 times the number of direct deaths from armed conflicts. INTERPRETATION: Armed conflict substantially and persistently increases infant mortality in Africa, with effect sizes on a scale with malnutrition and several times greater than existing estimates of the mortality burden of conflict. The toll of conflict on children, who are presumably not combatants, underscores the indirect toll of conflict on civilian populations, and the importance of developing interventions to address child health in areas of conflict. FUNDING: The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, and the Centre for Global Child Health at the Hospital for Sick Children.

The Impact of Positive Income Shocks on Risky Sexual Behavior: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania.

In this paper, we exploit a lottery in Tanzania, which randomly assigned eligible participants to receive $100 cash grants. The randomized nature of the lottery allows us to estimate the causal impact of positive income shocks on risky sexual behavior. We found that winning the lottery led men to have 0.28 (95 % CI 0.14, 0.55) more sexual partners and to a 0.21 (95 % CI 0.01-0.4) increase in the probability of unprotected sex with a non-primary partner relative to a control group of eligible non-winners. We found no significant effect of winning the lottery on the sexual behavior of women.

A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Preexposure Prophylaxis for the Prevention of HIV Among Los Angeles County Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Substantial gaps remain in understanding the trade-offs between the costs and benefits of choosing alternative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention strategies, including test-and-treat (expanded HIV testing combined with immediate treatment) and PrEP (initiation of preexposure prophylaxis by high-risk uninfected individuals) strategies. METHODS: We develop a mathematical epidemiological model to simulate HIV incidence among men residing in Los Angeles County, California, aged 15-65 years, who have sex with men. We combine these incidence data with an economic model to estimate the discounted cost, effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of various HIV prevention strategies using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: PrEP and test-and-treat yield the largest reductions in HIV incidence, and are highly cost-effective ($27 863/QALY and $19 302/QALY, respectively) relative to status quo and at a US willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000/QALY saved. Status quo and 12 test-and-treat and PrEP strategies determine the frontier for efficient decisions. More aggressive strategies are costlier, but more effective, albeit with diminishing returns. The relative effectiveness of PrEP is sensitive to the initial HIV prevalence rate, PrEP and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and initiation rates, the probabilities of HIV transmission, and the rates of sexual partner mixing. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP and test-and-treat offer cost-effective alternatives to the status quo. The success of these strategies depends on ART and PrEP adherence and initiation rates. The lack of evidence on adherence behaviors toward PrEP, therefore, warrants further studies.

Barriers to use of oral rehydration salts for child diarrhea in the private sector: evidence from India.

Diarrhea is the second leading cause of child mortality in India. Most deaths are cheaply preventable with the use of oral rehydration salts (ORS), yet many health providers still fail to provide ORS to children seeking diarrheal care. In this study, we use survey data to assess whether children visiting private providers for diarrheal care were less likely to use ORS than those visiting public providers. Results suggest that children who visited private providers were 9.5 percentage points less likely to have used ORS than those who visited public providers (95% CI 5-14). We complimented these results with in-depth interviews of 21 public and 17 private doctors in Gujarat, India, assessing potential drivers of public-private disparities in ORS use. Interview results suggested that lack of direct medication dispensing in the private sector might be a key barrier to ORS use in the private sector.

Activation patterns in superficial layers of neocortex change between experiences independent of behavior, environment, or the hippocampus.

Previous work suggests that activation patterns of neurons in superficial layers of the neocortex are more sensitive to spatial context than activation patterns in deep cortical layers. A possible source of this laminar difference is the distribution of contextual information to the superficial cortical layers carried by hippocampal efferents that travel through the entorhinal cortex and subiculum. To evaluate the role that the hippocampus plays in determining context sensitivity in superficial cortical layers, behavior-induced expression of the immediate early gene Arc was examined in hippocampus-lesioned and control rats after exposing them to 2 distinct contexts. Contrary to expectations, hippocampal lesions had no observable effect on Arc expression in any neocortical layer relative to controls. Furthermore, another group of intact animals was exposed to the same environment twice, to determine the reliability of Arc-expression patterns across identical contextual and behavioral episodes. Although this condition included no difference in external input between 2 epochs, the significant layer differences in Arc expression still remained. Thus, laminar differences in activation or plasticity patterns are not likely to arise from hippocampal sources or differences in external inputs, but are more likely to be an intrinsic property of the neocortex.

What drives poor quality of care for child diarrhea? Experimental evidence from India.

Most health care providers in developing countries know that oral rehydration salts (ORS) are a lifesaving and inexpensive treatment for child diarrhea, yet few prescribe it. This know-do gap has puzzled experts for decades. Using randomized experiments in India, we estimated the extent to which ORS underprescription is driven by perceptions that patients do not want ORS, provider's financial incentives, and ORS stock-outs (out-of-stock events). Patients expressing a preference for ORS increased ORS prescribing by 27 percentage points. Eliminating stock-outs increased ORS provision by 7 percentage points. Removing financial incentives did not affect ORS prescribing on average but did increase ORS prescribing at pharmacies. We estimate that perceptions that patients do not want ORS explain 42% of underprescribing, whereas stock-outs and financial incentives explain only 6 and 5%, respectively.

Behavioral Economic Incentives to Support HIV Care: Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: This study tests behavioral economics incentives to improve adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART), with 1 approach being low cost. SETTING: Three hundred twenty-nine adults at Mildmay Hospital in Kampala, Uganda, on ART for at least 2 years and showing adherence problems received the intervention for about 15 months until the study was interrupted by a nation-wide COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS: We randomized participants into 1 of 3 (1:1:1) groups: usual care ("control" group; n = 109) or 1 of 2 intervention groups where eligibility for nonmonetary prizes was based on showing at least 90% electronically measured ART adherence ("adherence-linked" group, n = 111) or keeping clinic appointments as scheduled ("clinic-linked"; n = 109). After 12 months, participants could win a larger prize for consistently high adherence or viral suppression. Primary outcomes were mean adherence and viral suppression. Analysis was by intention-to-treat using linear regression. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03494777 . RESULTS: Neither incentive arm increased adherence compared with the control; we estimate a 3.9 percentage point increase in "adherence-linked" arm [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.70 to 8.60 ( P = 0.10)] and 0.024 in the "clinic-linked" arm [95% CI: -0.02 to 0.07 ( P = 0.28)]. For the prespecified subgroup of those with initial low adherence, incentives increased adherence by 7.60 percentage points (95% CI: 0.01, 0.15; P = 0.04, "adherence-linked") and 5.60 percentage points (95% CI: -0.01, 0.12; P = 0.10, "clinic-linked"). We find no effects on clinic attendance or viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Incentives did not improve viral suppression or ART adherence overall but worked for the prespecified subgroup of those with initial low adherence. More effectively identifying those in need of adherence support will allow better targeting of this and other incentive interventions.