Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers (1-170) and locations (170,000 total placement combinations) of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel of the facilities, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living ≤1h from a diagnostic centre, and we demonstrate an approach to best place these facilities, informing a minimal impact scale back. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.

Estimating the impact of Tiny Targets in reducing the incidence of Gambian sleeping sickness in the North-west Uganda focus.

BACKGROUND: Riverine species of tsetse (Glossina) transmit Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, which causes Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a neglected tropical disease. Uganda aims to eliminate gHAT as a public health problem through detection and treatment of human cases and vector control. The latter is being achieved through the deployment of 'Tiny Targets', insecticide-impregnated panels of material which attract and kill tsetse. We analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of gHAT in Uganda during the period 2010-2019 to assess whether Tiny Targets have had an impact on disease incidence. METHODS: To quantify the deployment of Tiny Targets, we mapped the rivers and their associated watersheds in the intervention area. We then categorised each of these on a scale of 0-3 according to whether Tiny Targets were absent (0), present only in neighbouring watersheds (1), present in the watersheds but not all neighbours (2), or present in the watershed and all neighbours (3). We overlaid all cases that were diagnosed between 2000 and 2020 and assessed whether the probability of finding cases in a watershed changed following the deployment of targets. We also estimated the number of cases averted through tsetse control. RESULTS: We found that following the deployment of Tiny Targets in a watershed, there were fewer cases of HAT, with a sampled error probability of 0.007. We estimate that during the intervention period 2012-2019 we should have expected 48 cases (95% confidence intervals = 40-57) compared to the 36 cases observed. The results are robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Tiny Targets have reduced the incidence of gHAT by 25% in north-western Uganda.

Gambian human African trypanosomiasis in North West Uganda. Are we on course for the 2020 target?

In 1994, combined active and passive screening reported 1469 cases from the historic Gambian Human African Trypanosomiasis (gHAT) foci of West Nile, Uganda. Since 2011 systematic active screening has stopped and there has been reliance on passive screening. During 2014, passive screening alone detected just nine cases. In the same year a tsetse control intervention was expanded to cover the main gHAT foci in West Nile to curtail transmission of gHAT contributing to the elimination of gHAT as a public health problem in the area. It is known that sole reliance on passive screening is slow to detect cases and can underestimate the actual true number. We therefore undertook an active screening programme designed to test the efficacy of these interventions against gHAT transmission and clarify disease status. Screening was conducted in 28 randomly selected villages throughout the study area, aiming to sample all residents. Whole blood from 10,963 participants was analysed using CATT and 97 CATT suspects (0.9%) were evaluated with microscopy and trypanolysis. No confirmed cases were found providing evidence that the gHAT prevention programmes in West Nile have been effective. Results confirm gHAT prevalence in the study area of West Nile is below the elimination threshold (1 new case / 10,000 population), making elimination on course across this study area if status is maintained. The findings of this study can be used to guide future HAT and tsetse management in other gHAT foci, where reduced caseloads necessitate a shift from active to passive screening.

A multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority clinical trial comparing a nifurtimox-eflornithine combination to standard eflornithine monotherapy for late stage Trypanosoma brucei gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: While the combination of nifurtimox and eflornithine (NECT) is currently recommended for the treatment of the late stage human African trypansomiasis (HAT), single-agent eflornithine was still the treatment of choice when this trial commenced. This study intended to provide supportive evidence to complement previous trials. METHODS: A multi-centre randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial was carried out in the Trypanosoma brucei gambiense endemic districts of North-Western Uganda to compare the efficacy and safety of NECT (200 mg/kg eflornithine infusions every 12 h for 7 days and 8 hourly oral nifurtimox at 5 mg/kg for 10 days) to the standard eflornithine regimen (6 hourly at 100 mg/kg for 14 days). The primary endpoint was the cure rate, determined as the proportion of patients alive and without laboratory signs of infection at 18 months post-treatment, with no demonstrated trypanosomes in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), blood or lymph node aspirates, and CSF white blood cell count < 20 /µl. The non-inferiority margin was set at 10%. RESULTS: One hundred and nine patients were enrolled; all contributed to the intent-to-treat (ITT), modified intent-to-treat (mITT) and safety populations, while 105 constituted the per-protocol population (PP). The cure rate was 90.9% for NECT and 88.9% for eflornithine in the ITT and mITT populations; the same was 90.6 and 88.5%, respectively in the PP population. Non-inferiority was demonstrated for NECT in all populations: differences in cure rates were 0.02 (95% CI: -0.07-0.11) and 0.02 (95% CI: -0.08-0.12) respectively. Two patients died while on treatment (1 in each arm), and 3 more during follow-up in the NECT arm. No difference was found between the two arms for the secondary efficacy and safety parameters. A meta-analysis involving several studies demonstrated non-inferiority of NECT to eflornithine monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm findings of earlier trials and support implementation of NECT as first-line treatment for late stage T. b. gambiense HAT. The overall risk difference for cure between NECT and eflornithine between this and two previous randomised controlled trials is 0.03 (95% CI: -0.02-0.08). The NECT regimen is simpler, safer, shorter and less expensive than single-agent DFMO. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN03148609 (registered 18 April 2008).

Enhanced passive screening and diagnosis for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in north-western Uganda - Moving towards elimination.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) in Uganda has been declining, from 198 cases in 2008, to only 20 in 2012. Interruption of transmission of the disease by early diagnosis and treatment is core to the control and eventual elimination of gHAT. Until recently, the format of available screening tests had restricted screening and diagnosis to central health facilities (passive screening). We describe a novel strategy that is contributing to elimination of gHAT in Uganda through expansion of passive screening to the entire population at risk. METHODOLOGY / PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this strategy, patients who are clinically suspected of having gHAT at primary health facilities are screened using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), followed by parasitological confirmation at strategically located microscopy centres. For patients who are positive with the RDT and negative by microscopy, blood samples undergo further testing using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), a molecular test that detects parasite DNA. LAMP positive patients are considered strong suspects, and are re-evaluated by microscopy. Location and upgrading of facilities to perform microscopy and LAMP was informed by results of georeferencing and characterization of all public healthcare facilities in the 7 gHAT endemic districts in Uganda. Three facilities were upgraded to perform RDTs, microscopy and LAMP, 9 to perform RDTs and microscopy, and 200 to screen patients with RDTs. This reduced the distance that a sick person must travel to be screened for gHAT to a median distance of 2.5km compared to 23km previously. In this strategy, 9 gHAT cases were diagnosed in 2014, and 4 in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: This enhanced passive screening strategy for gHAT has enabled full coverage of the population at risk, and is being replicated in other gHAT endemic countries. The improvement in case detection is making elimination of the disease in Uganda an imminent possibility.