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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate associations between depression, anxiety, and cognitive impairment among individuals with complicated mild to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) 1 year after injury. SETTING: Multiple inpatient rehabilitation units across the United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 498 adults 16 years and older who completed inpatient rehabilitation for complicated mild to severe TBI. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter, cross-sectional observational cohort study. MAIN MEASURES: Assessments of depression (Traumatic Brain Injury Quality of Life [TBI-QOL] Depression) and anxiety (TBI-QOL Anxiety) as well as a telephone-based brief screening measure of cognitive functioning (Brief Test of Adult Cognition by Telephone [BTACT]). RESULTS: We found an inverse relationship between self-reported depression symptoms and the BTACT Composite score (ß = -0.18, P < .01) and anxiety symptoms and the BTACT Composite score (ß = -0.20, P < .01). There was no evidence this relationship varied by injury severity. Exploratory analyses showed depression and anxiety were negatively correlated with both BTACT Executive Function factor score and BTACT Memory factor score. CONCLUSIONS: Both depression and anxiety have a small but significant negative association with cognitive performance in the context of complicated mild to severe TBI. These findings highlight the importance of considering depression and anxiety when interpreting TBI-related neuropsychological impairments, even among more severe TBI.
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Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo , Calidad de Vida , Adulto , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Depresión/diagnóstico , Depresión/epidemiología , Depresión/etiología , Estudios Transversales , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/complicaciones , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/diagnóstico , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/psicología , Cognición , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Ansiedad/etiología , Pruebas NeuropsicológicasRESUMEN
Strict maternal inheritance of mitochondria favours the evolutionary accumulation of sex-biased fitness effects, as mitochondrial evolution occurs exclusively in female lineages. The 'mother's curse' hypothesis proposes that male-harming mutations should accumulate in mitochondrial genomes when they have neutral or beneficial effects on female fitness. Rigorous empirical tests have largely focused on Drosophila, where support for the predictions of mother's curse has been mixed. We investigated the impact of mother's curse mutations in Tigriopus californicus, a minute crustacean. Using non-recombinant backcrosses, we introgressed four divergent mitochondrial haplotypes into two nuclear backgrounds and recorded measures of fertility and longevity. We found that the phenotypic effects of mitochondrial mutations were context dependent, being influenced by the nuclear background in which they were expressed, as well as the sex of the individual and rearing temperature. Mitochondrial haplotype effects were greater for fertility than longevity, and temperature effects were greater for longevity. However, in opposition to mother's curse expectations, females had higher mitochondrial genetic variance than males for fertility and longevity, little evidence of sexual antagonism favouring females was found, and the impacts of mitonuclear mismatch harmed females but not males. Together, this indicates that selection on mitochondrial variation has not resulted in the accumulation of male mutation load in Tigriopus californicus.
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Genoma Mitocondrial , Longevidad , Femenino , Animales , Mitocondrias/genética , Herencia Materna , Fertilidad , ADN Mitocondrial/genéticaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis-based direct-acting antiviral treatment policies for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus at the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States health system. METHODS: We used a Markov model to compare the lifetime costs and effects of treating patients with chronic hepatitis C virus at different stages of disease severity, or all stages simultaneously, based on a fibrosis score from the US healthcare sector perspective and societal perspective. The initial distribution of patients across fibrosis scores, the effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral therapy, and follow-up and monitoring protocols were specific to the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States health system. Direct and indirect costs, transition probabilities, and utilities were derived from the literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our results. RESULTS: The "Treat All" option was dominant from both the societal and healthcare sector perspectives. The conclusion was robust in deterministic sensitivity analysis. The range of incremental costs between the less restrictive policies was small-the difference between the "Treat F1+" and the "Treat All" option was only $111 per person. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed, at both the $100 000/quality-adjusted life-year and $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year thresholds, there was a 70% chance that the "Treat All" option was more cost-effective than the "Treat F1+" option. CONCLUSIONS: We found that expanded treatment access is cost-effective and, in many cases, cost saving. Although our results are primarily applicable to a regional integrated healthcare system, it offers some direction to any healthcare setting faced with resource constraints in the face of highly priced drugs.
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Prestación Integrada de Atención de Salud , Hepatitis C Crónica , Hepatitis C , Antivirales , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Fibrosis , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C/tratamiento farmacológico , Hepatitis C Crónica/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Cadenas de Markov , Años de Vida Ajustados por Calidad de Vida , TriajeRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Health plan claims may provide complete longitudinal data for timely, real-world population-level COVID-19 assessment. However, these data often lack laboratory results, the standard for COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: We assessed the validity of ICD-10-CM diagnosis codes for identifying patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in U.S. claims databases, compared to linked laboratory results, among six Food and Drug Administration Sentinel System data partners (two large national insurers, four integrated delivery systems) from February 20-October 17, 2020. We identified patients hospitalized with COVID-19 according to five ICD-10-CM diagnosis code-based algorithms, which included combinations of codes U07.1, B97.29, general coronavirus codes, and diagnosis codes for severe symptoms. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of each algorithm relative to laboratory test results. We stratified results by data source type and across three time periods: February 20-March 31 (Time A), April 1-30 (Time B), May 1-October 17 (Time C). RESULTS: The five algorithms identified between 34 806 and 47 293 patients across the study periods; 23% with known laboratory results contributed to PPV calculations. PPVs were high and similar across algorithms. PPV of U07.1 alone was stable around 93% for integrated delivery systems, but declined over time from 93% to 70% among national insurers. Overall PPV of U07.1 across all data partners was 94.1% (95% CI, 92.3%-95.5%) in Time A and 81.2% (95% CI, 80.1%-82.2%) in Time C. Sensitivity was consistent across algorithms and over time, at 94.9% (95% CI, 94.2%-95.5%). CONCLUSION: Our results support the use of code U07.1 to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients in U.S. claims data.
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COVID-19 , Algoritmos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Prueba de COVID-19 , Bases de Datos Factuales , Atención a la Salud , Humanos , Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To examine the utility of the sleep disturbance item of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) as a screening tool for insomnia among individuals with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). SETTING: Telephone interview. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of 248 individuals with a history of moderate to severe TBI participated in an interview within 2 years of their injury. DESIGN: Observational, cross-sectional analysis. MAIN MEASURES: The PHQ-9 was administered along with the Insomnia Severity Index, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Sleep Hygiene Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, and the Insomnia Interview Schedule. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was conducted for the PHQ-9 sleep item rating against a set of insomnia criteria to determine an optimal cutoff score. A cutoff of 2 on the PHQ-9 sleep item maximized sensitivity (76%) and specificity (79%), with an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.70-0.88). The 2 groups formed using this cutoff differed significantly on all sleep measures except the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. CONCLUSIONS: The PHQ-9 sleep item may serve as a useful screener to allow for detection of potential sleep disturbance among individuals with moderate to severe TBI. Those who screen positive using this item included in a commonly used measure of depression can be prioritized for further and more comprehensive assessment of sleep disorders.
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Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo , Trastornos del Inicio y del Mantenimiento del Sueño , Trastornos del Sueño-Vigilia , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/complicaciones , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/diagnóstico , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Cuestionario de Salud del Paciente , Sueño , Trastornos del Inicio y del Mantenimiento del Sueño/diagnóstico , Trastornos del Inicio y del Mantenimiento del Sueño/etiología , Trastornos del Sueño-Vigilia/diagnóstico , Trastornos del Sueño-Vigilia/etiología , Somnolencia , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Interferon-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) were introduced in 2013 and have transformed the therapeutic landscape for chronic Hepatitis C (HCV). Although treatment is recommended for almost all persons infected with HCV, clinical and psychosocial factors may affect treatment initiation. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study of Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States members with prevalent or incident HCV infection identified from November 2013 through May 2016 to identify predictors of DAA initiation. We used Cox regression with time-dependent covariates to compare time to treatment by clinical, demographic and societal factors. RESULTS: Of 2962 patients eligible for DAA therapy, 33% (n = 980) initiated treatment over the study period. The majority of patients (97%) were persistent with therapy and most (95%) tested for sustained virologic response (SVR) achieved cure. We found no effect of race, insurance type or fibrosis stage on treatment initiation. We observed that patients aged 41-60 years (aHR: 2.014, 95% CI: 1.12, 3.60) and 61-80 years (aHR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.15-3.75) had higher treatment rates compared to younger patients. Incident cases were more likely to be treated than prevalent cases (aHR: 3.05, 95% CI: 2.40-3.89). Patients with a history of substance use disorder (SUD) were less likely (aHR: 0.805, 95% CI: 0.680, 0.953) to be treated. CONCLUSIONS: In the first 3 years of DAA availability, one-third of patients with HCV initiated therapy, and almost all were persistent and achieved cure. While curative, DAAs remain highly priced. Triaging for non-clinical reasons or perceptions about patients will stall our ability to eradicate HCV.
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Hepatitis C Crónica , Hepatitis C , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Estudios de Cohortes , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C Crónica/tratamiento farmacológico , Hepatitis C Crónica/epidemiología , Humanos , Tiempo de TratamientoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To compare characteristics of those who do and do not sustain subsequent traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) following index TBI and to identify reinjury risk factors. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of an ongoing longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: TBI Model Systems Centers. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 11 353 individuals aged 16+ years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ohio State University TBI Identification Method. RESULTS: In total, 7.9% of individuals reported sustaining a TBI post-index TBI. Twenty percent of reinjuries occurred within a year of the index TBI. Reinjury risk followed an approximate U-shaped distribution such that risk was higher in the first year, declined 2 to 10 years postinjury, and then increased after 10 years. A multivariable Weibull model identified predictors of reinjury: younger (<29 years) and middle-aged and older (50+ years) age at index TBI relative to middle age, pre-index TBI, pre-index alcohol and illicit drug use, incarceration history, and less severe index TBI. CONCLUSIONS: A subset of individuals who receive inpatient rehabilitation for TBI are at an increased risk for reinjury, and an injury-prone phenotype may be characterized by engagement in risk behaviors. Factors associated with reinjury risk may differ for younger versus middle-aged and older adults. Findings underscore the need for empirically informed risk stratification models to identify TBI survivors at risk for reinjury.
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Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo , Lesiones de Repetición , Anciano , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/diagnóstico , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Speciation is a fundamental evolutionary process, the knowledge of which is crucial for understanding the origins of biodiversity. Genomic approaches are an increasingly important aspect of this research field. We review current understanding of genome-wide effects of accumulating reproductive isolation and of genomic properties that influence the process of speciation. Building on this work, we identify emergent trends and gaps in our understanding, propose new approaches to more fully integrate genomics into speciation research, translate speciation theory into hypotheses that are testable using genomic tools and provide an integrative definition of the field of speciation genomics.
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Genómica , Biodiversidad , Modelos GenéticosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: An estimated 55 million individuals worldwide live with chronic disability associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI), which may include cognitive, behavioral, and social impairments. Reduced participation in social activities is common after TBI; however, few studies have evaluated loneliness among survivors of TBI. The current study aimed to evaluate the association between history of TBI and loneliness and to identify mediators of this association. METHODS/DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. Nationally representative sample of N = 724 adults over age 50 years (Health and Retirement Study). Loneliness was evaluated using the 11-item Revised University of California Los Angeles (R-UCLA) Loneliness Scale (range 11-33). Lifetime history of TBI evaluated retrospectively using the Ohio State University TBI Identification Method. We included the following covariates: age, sex, race, and education; and mediators: depressive symptoms, number of comorbidities, chronic pain, difficulty with activities of daily living, and social network index. RESULTS: History of TBI was associated with a 1.28-point (95% CI, 0.46-2.11; P < .05; Cohen's D = 0.284) increase in R-UCLA Loneliness Scale scores after covariate adjustment. Individuals with more recent injuries (within 10 years) and multiple lifetime TBIs reported the highest loneliness scores. In the structural equation model, depressive symptoms partially mediated the relationship between TBI and loneliness. All models were adjusted for US population sampling weights. CONCLUSIONS: History of TBI was associated with greater loneliness compared with individuals without TBI in a representative sample of US adults. Managing depressive symptoms and medical consequences of TBI may be a target to ameliorate reporting of loneliness in this population.
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Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/complicaciones , Personas con Discapacidad/psicología , Soledad/psicología , Actividades Cotidianas , Anciano , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/epidemiología , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/psicología , Dolor Crónico/epidemiología , Comorbilidad , Personas con Discapacidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Patient adherence with positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy is a significant clinical problem in obstructive sleep apnea treatment. Personality traits may be a factor for non-adherence. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between PAP therapy adherence and patient personality traits. METHODS: Patients were screened and recruited during their visit to a sleep clinic. Baseline data were collected from each patient's electronic chart. Behavioral inhibition system/behavioral activation system (BIS/BAS) scales, short measure of five-factor model personality traits (mini-IPIP), positive and negative affect score (PANAS), and appetitive motivation scores (AMS) tests were used to measure personality traits. Data from the PAP device were obtained following a minimum of an initial 30 days, with adherence defined as >4 h/night on 70% of nights. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Pearson correlation tests were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: A total of 400 patients were recruited. Three hundred twenty-one patients had all the data and were included in the study. Behavioral activation system-fun seeking (BAS-FS) and, to a certain extent, negative affect were significantly associated with adherence. Intellect/imagination was marginally significant. Additionally, older age (>65 years), profession, PAP type, side effects, efficiency, apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), and residual AHI showed significant associations with patient adherence with PAP therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that BAS-FS was still a significant predictor of adherence even after adjusting for other covariates. CONCLUSION: BAS-FS, negative affect, and intellect/imagination are significant factors for adherence to PAP therapy in obstructive sleep apnea patients.
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Presión de las Vías Aéreas Positiva Contínua/psicología , Cooperación del Paciente/psicología , Personalidad , Apnea Obstructiva del Sueño/psicología , Apnea Obstructiva del Sueño/terapia , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Polisomnografía , Estudios ProspectivosRESUMEN
PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Brain injuries are often "invisible" injuries that can have lifelong consequences including changes in identity, functional independence, relationships, and reduced participation in daily activities. Survivors of brain injury experience stigma and challenges related to the misattribution of symptoms to other causes that are significant barriers to recovery and adjustment. Changes in policy and other large-scale interventions are cited as an underexplored, yet critical path to reducing the impact of brain injury. The present study sought to comprehensively characterize the impact of one such initiative-Brain Injury Identification Cards-among survivors to further refine the resource. RESEARCH METHOD/DESIGN: In this cross-sectional qualitative focus group study, we recruited 16 individuals with a history of brain injury via email listservs of individuals who registered for a Brain Injury Identification Card. We used rapid data analysis with a hybrid of deductive and inductive analytic strategies to identify themes within a priori domains. RESULTS: We extracted themes within four domains: (a) process and reasons for obtaining cards; (b) overall impressions of the cards; (c) uses of the cards; and (d) feedback and proposed changes. Participants described the process of obtaining cards as straightforward and shared wide-ranging benefits across domains, including improving survivors' sense of safety, self-advocacy, and ability to participate in daily activities. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS: Findings highlight the utility of Brain Injury Identification Cards for improving community understanding of brain injury symptoms and how injury-related challenges may manifest in daily life. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
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OBJECTIVES: The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Death Index (NDI) is a gold standard for mortality data, yet matching patients to the database depends on accurate and available key identifiers. Our objective was to evaluate NDI data for future healthcare research studies with mortality outcomes. METHODS: We used a Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States' Virtual Data Warehouse (KPMAS-VDW) sourced from the Social Security Administration and electronic health records on members enrolled between 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2017. We submitted data to NDI on 1 036 449 members. We compared results from the NDI best match algorithm to the KPMAS-VDW for vital status and death date. We compared probabilistic scores by sex and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: NDI returned 372 865 (36%) unique possible matches, 663 061 (64%) records not matched to the NDI database and 522 (<1%) rejected records. The NDI algorithm resulted in 38 862 records, presumed dead, with a lower percentage of women, and Asian/Pacific Islander and Hispanic people than presumed alive. There were 27 306 presumed dead members whose death dates matched exactly between the NDI results and VDW, but 1539 did not have an exact match. There were 10 017 additional deaths from NDI results that were not present in the VDW death data. CONCLUSIONS: NDI data can substantially improve the overall capture of deaths. However, further quality control measures were needed to ensure the accuracy of the NDI best match algorithm.
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Algoritmos , Etnicidad , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Humanos , Femenino , Bases de Datos Factuales , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.RESUMEN
During the process of speciation, diverging taxa often hybridize and produce offspring wherein the heterogametic sex (i.e., XY or ZW) is unfit (Haldane's rule). Dominance theory seeks to explain Haldane's rule in terms of the difference in X-linked dominance regimes experienced by the sexes. However, X inactivation in female mammals extends the effects of hemizygosity to both sexes. Here, we highlight where the assumptions of dominance theory are particularly problematic in marsupials, where X inactivation uniformly results in silencing the paternal X. We then present evidence of Haldane's rule for sterility but not for viability in marsupials, as well as the first violations of Haldane's rule for these traits among all mammals. Marsupials represent a large taxonomic group possessing heteromorphic sex chromosomes, where the dominance theory cannot explain Haldane's rule. In this light, we evaluate alternative explanations for the preponderance of male sterility in interspecific hybrids, including faster male evolution, X-Y interactions, and genomic conflict hypotheses.
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Hemicigoto , Marsupiales/genética , Modelos Genéticos , Animales , Evolución Molecular , Femenino , Expresión Génica , Genes Dominantes , Infertilidad/genética , Masculino , Cromosomas Sexuales/genética , Inactivación del Cromosoma XRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence on racial and ethnic disparities within traumatic brain injury (TBI) care. The aim of this paper was to conduct a narrative review of the literature, demonstrating how racial and ethnic disparities manifest across the full spectrum of the TBI experience in civilian populations: injury, acute care and diagnosis, post-TBI recovery and adjustment, and long-term outcomes. METHODS: We searched five electronic databases (Scopus, APA PsychNet, PubMed/MEDLINE, and Google Scholar) using the search terms traumatic brain injury, head trauma, concussion, health disparities, ethnic minority, racial minority, race ethnicity, racial ethnic, prevalence, incidence, diagnosis, rehabilitation, recovery, and outcomes. Boolean search modifiers AND, NOT, and OR were used to produce relevant results. Additional resources were included by the authors, as deemed relevant to the investigation. RESULTS: Our narrative review of 39 articles elucidated numerous ways in which racial and ethnic disparities span the TBI continuum of care, including acute care and diagnosis, post-TBI recovery and adjustment, and long-term outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding racial and ethnic disparities is a first step in ensuring equitable care for all individuals with TBI, including raising awareness among clinicians and guiding the development of tailored interventions for racial and ethnic minority populations.
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Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo , Etnicidad , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/terapia , Continuidad de la Atención al Paciente , Humanos , Grupos MinoritariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Liver fibrosis is a common pathway of liver injury and is a feature of most chronic liver diseases. Fibrosis progression varies markedly in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV). Liver stiffness has been recommended as a parameter of fibrosis progression/regression in patients with HCV. AIM: To investigate changes in liver stiffness measured by transient elastography (TE) in a large, racially diverse cohort of United States patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). METHODS: We evaluated the differences in liver stiffness between patients treated with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and untreated patients. Patients had ≥ 2 TE measurements and no prior DAA exposure. We used linear regression to measure the change in liver stiffness between first and last TE in response to treatment, controlling for age, sex, race, diabetes, smoking status, human immunodeficiency virus status, baseline alanine aminotransferase, and baseline liver stiffness. Separate regression models analyzed the change in liver stiffness as measured by kPa, stratified by cirrhosis status. RESULTS: Of 813 patients, 419 (52%) initiated DAA treatment. Baseline liver stiffness was 12 kPa in 127 (16%). Median time between first and last TE was 11.7 and 12.7 mo among treated and untreated patients, respectively. There was no significant change in liver stiffness observed over time in either the group initiating DAA treatment (0.016 kPa/month; CI: -0.051, 0.084) or in the untreated group (0.001 kPa/mo; CI: -0.090, 0.092), controlling for covariates. A higher baseline kPa score was independently associated with decreased liver stiffness. CONCLUSION: DAA treatment was not associated with a differential change in liver stiffness over time in patients with CHC compared to untreated patients.
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Disease characterization of Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) does not account for pre-existing conditions and time course of incidence. We utilized longitudinal data and matching to a COVID PCR-negative population to discriminate PASC conditions over time within our patient population during 2020. Clinical Classification Software was used to identify PASC condition groupings. Conditions were specified acute and persistent (occurring 0-30 days post COVID PCR and persisted 30-120 days post-test) or late (occurring initially 30-120 days post-test). We matched 3:1 COVID PCR-negative COVIDPCR-positive by age, sex, testing month and service area, controlling for pre-existing conditions up to four years prior; 28,118 PCR-positive to 70,293 PCR-negative patients resulted. We estimated PASC risk from the matched cohort. Risk of any PASC condition was 12% greater for PCR-positive patients in the late period with a significantly higher risk of anosmia, cardiac dysrhythmia, diabetes, genitourinary disorders, malaise, and nonspecific chest pain. Our findings contribute to a more refined PASC definition which can enhance clinical care.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/complicaciones , Estudios de Cohortes , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Humanos , Reacción en Cadena de la PolimerasaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To build a model of local hospital utilization resulting from SARS-CoV-2 and to continuously update it with new data. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of real performance resulting from a model deployed in a major regional health system. METHODS: Using hospitalization data from the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States integrated care system during the period from March 10, 2020, through December 31, 2020, and a custom-developed genetic particle filtering algorithm, we modeled the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the mid-Atlantic region. This model produced weekly forecasts of COVID-19-related hospital admissions, which we then compared with actual hospital admissions over the same period. RESULTS: We found that the model was able to accurately capture the data-generating process (weekly mean absolute percentage error, 10.0%-48.8%; Anderson-Darling P value of .97 when comparing percentiles of observed admissions with the uniform distribution) once the effects of social distancing could be accurately measured in mid-April. We also found that our estimates of key parameters, including the reproductive rate, were consistent with consensus literature estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The genetic particle filtering algorithm that we have proposed is effective at modeling hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2. The methods used by our model can be reproduced by any major health care system for the purposes of resource planning, staffing, and population care management to create an effective forecasting regimen at scale.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Atención a la Salud , Predicción , Hospitalización , Humanos , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic disparities during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic led to differences in COVID-19 testing and adverse outcomes. We examine differences in testing and adverse outcomes by race/ethnicity and sex across a geographically diverse and system-based COVID-19 cohort collaboration. METHODS: Observational study among adults (≥18 years) within six US cohorts from March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020 using data from electronic health record and patient reporting. Race/ethnicity and sex as risk factors were primary exposures, with health system type (integrated health system, academic health system, or interval cohort) as secondary. Proportions measured SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity; attributed hospitalization and death related to COVID-19. Relative risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals quantified associations between exposures and main outcomes. RESULTS: 5,958,908 patients were included. Hispanic patients had the highest proportions of SARS-CoV-2 testing (16%) and positivity (18%), while Asian/Pacific Islander patients had the lowest portions tested (11%) and White patients had the lowest positivity rates (5%). Men had a lower likelihood of testing (RR = 0.90 [0.89-0.90]) and a higher positivity risk (RR = 1.16 [1.14-1.18]) compared to women. Black patients were more likely to have COVID-19-related hospitalizations (RR = 1.36 [1.28-1.44]) and death (RR = 1.17 [1.03-1.32]) compared with White patients. Men were more likely to be hospitalized (RR = 1.30 [1.16-1.22]) or die (RR = 1.70 [1.53-1.89]) compared to women. These racial/ethnic and sex differences were reflected in both health system types. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports evidence of disparities by race/ethnicity and sex during the COVID-19 pandemic that persisted even in healthcare settings with reduced barriers to accessing care. Further research is needed to understand and prevent the drivers that resulted in higher burdens of morbidity among certain Black patients and men.