Socioeconomic status in adulthood of children with and without a history of seizures: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Compare adulthood socioeconomic status for children with and without a history of seizures. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using Aberdeen Children of the Nineteen Fifties (ACONF) data comprising children born 1950-1956 attending primary school 1962-1964, with follow-up data collected in 2001. Adulthood socioeconomic status was based on registrar general measure of occupational social class and categorised as high or low. We adjusted for potentially confounding variables including childhood socioeconomic status, behavioural issues (Rutter A/B scores), biological sex, school test scores, educational attainment, parental engagement with education, peer-status in school, and alcohol use in adulthood. A multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to estimate the adjusted association between children with a history of seizures of any type (for example febrile seizures, or provoked seizures of any other etiology or seizures in the context of epilepsy) or severity and adult socioeconomic status. Multiple imputation using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain method accounted for missing data. RESULTS: Pooled estimates (N = 2,208) comparing children with a history of seizures (n = 81) and children without a history of seizures (n = 2,127) found no differences between these cohorts in terms of adulthood socioeconomic status in both unadjusted (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.45 [95 % CI 0.71-2.96], p = 0.31) and adjusted (1.02 [0.46, 2.24], p = 0.96) analyses. Compared to males, females were at increased odds of having a lower socioeconomic status in adulthood (1.56 [1.13-2.17], p = 0.01).Compared to those with low educational attainment, those with moderate (0.32 [0.21, 0.48], p < 0.001) and high (0.12 [0.07, 0.20], p < 0.001) educational attainment were at reduced odds of having a lower socioeconomic status in adulthood. CONCLUSION: Cognitive problems in childhood (using educational attainment and scores on primary school tests proxy markers for cognition) rather than a history of seizures per se, were associated with lower SES in a population of adults born 1950-56 in Aberdeen. This relationship may be different depending on the time in history and nation/region of study. Given the changes in health, education and social support in the management of children with seizures over time, it would be of interest to investigate outcomes in a contemporary cohort. Such studies should ideally have validated diagnoses of seizures, details on seizure characteristics such as seizure type and severity, and a large sample size using national data.

Development of consensus-driven SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for early phase dose-finding trials: the DEFINE study.

BACKGROUND: Early phase dose-finding (EPDF) trials are crucial for the development of a new intervention and influence whether it should be investigated in further trials. Guidance exists for clinical trial protocols and completed trial reports in the SPIRIT and CONSORT guidelines, respectively. However, both guidelines and their extensions do not adequately address the characteristics of EPDF trials. Building on the SPIRIT and CONSORT checklists, the DEFINE study aims to develop international consensus-driven guidelines for EPDF trial protocols (SPIRIT-DEFINE) and reports (CONSORT-DEFINE). METHODS: The initial generation of candidate items was informed by reviewing published EPDF trial reports. The early draft items were refined further through a review of the published and grey literature, analysis of real-world examples, citation and reference searches, and expert recommendations, followed by a two-round modified Delphi process. Patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) was pursued concurrently with the quantitative and thematic analysis of Delphi participants' feedback. RESULTS: The Delphi survey included 79 new or modified SPIRIT-DEFINE (n = 36) and CONSORT-DEFINE (n = 43) extension candidate items. In Round One, 206 interdisciplinary stakeholders from 24 countries voted and 151 stakeholders voted in Round Two. Following Round One feedback, one item for CONSORT-DEFINE was added in Round Two. Of the 80 items, 60 met the threshold for inclusion (≥ 70% of respondents voted critical: 26 SPIRIT-DEFINE, 34 CONSORT-DEFINE), with the remaining 20 items to be further discussed at the consensus meeting. The parallel PPIE work resulted in the development of an EPDF lay summary toolkit consisting of a template with guidance notes and an exemplar. CONCLUSIONS: By detailing the development journey of the DEFINE study and the decisions undertaken, we envision that this will enhance understanding and help researchers in the development of future guidelines. The SPIRIT-DEFINE and CONSORT-DEFINE guidelines will allow investigators to effectively address essential items that should be present in EPDF trial protocols and reports, thereby promoting transparency, comprehensiveness, and reproducibility. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SPIRIT-DEFINE and CONSORT-DEFINE are registered with the EQUATOR Network ( https://www.equator-network.org/ ).

Evaluation of Digitalisation in Healthcare and the Quantification of the "Unmeasurable".

Evaluating healthcare digitalisation, where technology implementation and adoption transforms existing socio-organisational processes, presents various challenges for outcome assessments. Populations are diverse, interventions are complex and evolving over time, meaningful comparisons are difficult as outcomes vary between settings, and outcomes take a long time to materialise and stabilise. Digitalisation may also have unanticipated impacts. We here discuss the limitations of evaluating the digitalisation of healthcare, and describe how qualitative and quantitative approaches can complement each other to facilitate investment and implementation decisions. In doing so, we argue how existing approaches have focused on measuring what is easily measurable and elevating poorly chosen values to inform investment decisions. Limited attention has been paid to understanding processes that are not easily measured even though these can have significant implications for contextual transferability, sustainability and scale-up of interventions. We use what is commonly known as the McNamara Fallacy to structure our discussions. We conclude with recommendations on how we envisage the development of mixed methods approaches going forward in order to address shortcomings.

Longitudinal Metabolite Changes in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: A Study of 3 Potential Neuroprotective Treatments.

BACKGROUND: 1 H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1 H-MRS) may provide a direct index for the testing of medicines for neuroprotection and drug mechanisms in multiple sclerosis (MS) through measures of total N-acetyl-aspartate (tNAA), total creatine (tCr), myo-inositol (mIns), total-choline (tCho), and glutamate + glutamine (Glx). Neurometabolites may be associated with clinical disability with evidence that baseline neuroaxonal integrity is associated with upper limb function and processing speed in secondary progressive MS (SPMS). PURPOSE: To assess the effect on neurometabolites from three candidate drugs after 96-weeks as seen by 1 H-MRS and their association with clinical disability in SPMS. STUDY-TYPE: Longitudinal. POPULATION: 108 participants with SPMS randomized to receive neuroprotective drugs amiloride [mean age 55.4 (SD 7.4), 61% female], fluoxetine [55.6 (6.6), 71%], riluzole [54.6 (6.3), 68%], or placebo [54.8 (7.9), 67%]. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3-Tesla. Chemical-shift-imaging 2D-point-resolved-spectroscopy (PRESS), 3DT1. ASSESSMENT: Brain metabolites in normal appearing white matter (NAWM) and gray matter (GM), brain volume, lesion load, nine-hole peg test (9HPT), and paced auditory serial addition test were measured at baseline and at 96-weeks. STATISTICAL TESTS: Paired t-test was used to analyze metabolite changes in the placebo arm over 96-weeks. Metabolite differences between treatment arms and placebo; and associations between baseline metabolites and upper limb function/information processing speed at 96-weeks assessed using multiple linear regression models. P-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In the placebo arm, tCho increased in GM (mean difference = -0.32 IU) but decreased in NAWM (mean difference = 0.13 IU). Compared to placebo, in the fluoxetine arm, mIns/tCr was lower (ß = -0.21); in the riluzole arm, GM Glx (ß = -0.25) and Glx/tCr (ß = -0.29) were reduced. Baseline tNAA(ß = 0.22) and tNAA/tCr (ß = 0.23) in NAWM were associated with 9HPT scores at 96-weeks. DATA CONCLUSION: 1 H-MRS demonstrated altered membrane turnover over 96-weeks in the placebo group. It also distinguished changes in neuro-metabolites related to gliosis and glutaminergic transmission, due to fluoxetine and riluzole, respectively. Data show tNAA is a potential marker for upper limb function. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 4.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin on Presentation to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays enable myocardial infarction to be ruled out earlier, but the safety and efficacy of this approach is uncertain. We investigated whether an early rule-out pathway is safe and effective for patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: We performed a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in the emergency departments of 7 acute care hospitals in Scotland. Consecutive patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome between December 2014 and December 2016 were included. Sites were randomized to implement an early rule-out pathway where myocardial infarction was excluded if high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation. During a previous validation phase, myocardial infarction was ruled out when troponin concentrations were <99th percentile at 6 to 12 hours after symptom onset. The coprimary outcome was length of stay (efficacy) and myocardial infarction or cardiac death after discharge at 30 days (safety). Patients were followed for 1 year to evaluate safety and other secondary outcomes. RESULTS: We enrolled 31 492 patients (59±17 years of age [mean±SD]; 45% women) with troponin concentrations <99th percentile at presentation. Length of stay was reduced from 10.1±4.1 to 6.8±3.9 hours (adjusted geometric mean ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.73-0.83]; P<0.001) after implementation and the proportion of patients discharged increased from 50% to 71% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.45-1.75]). Noninferiority was not demonstrated for the 30-day safety outcome (upper limit of 1-sided 95% CI for adjusted risk difference, 0.70% [noninferiority margin 0.50%]; P=0.068), but the observed differences favored the early rule-out pathway (0.4% [57/14 700] versus 0.3% [56/16 792]). At 1 year, the safety outcome occurred in 2.7% (396/14 700) and 1.8% (307/16 792) of patients before and after implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.74-1.40]; P=0.894), and there were no differences in hospital reattendance or all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction reduced length of stay and hospital admission. Although noninferiority for the safety outcome was not demonstrated at 30 days, there was no increase in cardiac events at 1 year. Adoption of this pathway would have major benefits for patients and health care providers. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03005158.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin and the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in patients with kidney impairment.

The benefit and utility of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in patients with kidney impairment is unclear. Here, we describe implementation of hs-cTnI testing on the diagnosis, management, and outcomes of myocardial infarction in patients with and without kidney impairment. Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome enrolled in a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized controlled trial were included in this pre-specified secondary analysis. Kidney impairment was defined as an eGFR under 60mL/min/1.73m2. The index diagnosis and primary outcome of type 1 and type 4b myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year were compared in patients with and without kidney impairment following implementation of hs-cTnI assay with 99th centile sex-specific diagnostic thresholds. Serum creatinine concentrations were available in 46,927 patients (mean age 61 years; 47% women), of whom 9,080 (19%) had kidney impairment. hs-cTnIs were over 99th centile in 46% and 16% of patients with and without kidney impairment. Implementation increased the diagnosis of type 1 infarction from 12.4% to 17.8%, and from 7.5% to 9.4% in patients with and without kidney impairment (both significant). Patients with kidney impairment and type 1 myocardial infarction were less likely to undergo coronary revascularization (26% versus 53%) or receive dual anti-platelets (40% versus 68%) than those without kidney impairment, and this did not change post-implementation. In patients with hs-cTnI above the 99th centile, the primary outcome occurred twice as often in those with kidney impairment compared to those without (24% versus 12%, hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.78). Thus, hs-cTnI testing increased the identification of myocardial injury and infarction but failed to address disparities in management and outcomes between those with and without kidney impairment.

Practical guidance for planning resources required to support publicly-funded adaptive clinical trials.

Adaptive designs are a class of methods for improving efficiency and patient benefit of clinical trials. Although their use has increased in recent years, research suggests they are not used in many situations where they have potential to bring benefit. One barrier to their more widespread use is a lack of understanding about how the choice to use an adaptive design, rather than a traditional design, affects resources (staff and non-staff) required to set-up, conduct and report a trial. The Costing Adaptive Trials project investigated this issue using quantitative and qualitative research amongst UK Clinical Trials Units. Here, we present guidance that is informed by our research, on considering the appropriate resourcing of adaptive trials. We outline a five-step process to estimate the resources required and provide an accompanying costing tool. The process involves understanding the tasks required to undertake a trial, and how the adaptive design affects them. We identify barriers in the publicly funded landscape and provide recommendations to trial funders that would address them. Although our guidance and recommendations are most relevant to UK non-commercial trials, many aspects are relevant more widely.

Current recommendations/practices for anonymising data from clinical trials in order to make it available for sharing: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: There are increasing pressures for anonymised datasets from clinical trials to be shared across the scientific community, and differing recommendations exist on how to perform anonymisation prior to sharing. We aimed to systematically identify, describe and synthesise existing recommendations for anonymising clinical trial datasets to prepare for data sharing. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE®, EMBASE and Web of Science from inception to 8 February 2021. We also searched other resources to ensure the comprehensiveness of our search. Any publication reporting recommendations on anonymisation to enable data sharing from clinical trials was included. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full text for eligibility. One reviewer extracted data from included papers using thematic synthesis, which then was sense-checked by a second reviewer. Results were summarised by narrative analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-nine articles (from 43 studies) were eligible for inclusion. Three distinct themes are emerging: anonymisation, de-identification and pseudonymisation. The most commonly used anonymisation techniques are: removal of direct patient identifiers; and careful evaluation and modification of indirect identifiers to minimise the risk of identification. Anonymised datasets joined with controlled access was the preferred method for data sharing. CONCLUSIONS: There is no single standardised set of recommendations on how to anonymise clinical trial datasets for sharing. However, this systematic review shows a developing consensus on techniques used to achieve anonymisation. Researchers in clinical trials still consider that anonymisation techniques by themselves are insufficient to protect patient privacy, and they need to be paired with controlled access.

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a trial-based and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis from a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The AFFIRM intervention aimed to reduce stillbirth and neonatal deaths by increasing awareness of reduced fetal movements (RFM) and implementing a care pathway when women present with RFM. Although there is uncertainty regarding the clinical effectiveness of the intervention, the aim of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial was conducted in thirty-three hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. All women giving birth at the study sites during the analysis period were included in the study. The costs associated with implementing the intervention were estimated from audits of RFM attendances and electronic healthcare records. Trial data were used to estimate a cost per stillbirth prevented was for AFFIRM versus standard care. A decision analytic model was used to estimate the costs and number of perinatal deaths (stillbirths + early neonatal deaths) prevented if AFFIRM were rolled out across Great Britain for one year. Key assumptions were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Direct costs to implement AFFIRM were an estimated £95,126 per 1,000 births. Compared to standard care, the cost per stillbirth prevented was estimated to be between £86,478 and being dominated (higher costs, no benefit). The estimated healthcare budget impact of implementing AFFIRM across Great Britain was a cost increase of £61,851,400/year. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal deaths are relatively rare events in the UK which can increase uncertainty in economic evaluations. This evaluation estimated a plausible range of costs to prevent baby deaths which can inform policy decisions in maternity services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov , number NCT01777022 .

Separation and the information theory surrogate evaluation approach: A penalised likelihood solution.

Surrogate evaluation is an important topic in clinical trials research, the use of a surrogate in place of a primary endpoint of interest is a common occurrence but also a contentious issue that is much debated. Statistical techniques to assess potential surrogates are closely scrutinised by the research community given the complexities of such an assessment. One such technique is the information theory surrogate evaluation approach which is well-established, practical and theoretically sound. In the context of discrete outcomes, we investigated issues of bias due to inefficiency, overfitting and separation (sparse data) that have not been recognised or addressed previously. The most serious cause of bias is separation in trial information. We outline the concerns surrounding this bias and conduct a simulation study to investigate whether a penalised likelihood technique provides an appropriate solution. We found that removing trials with separation from surrogacy evaluation resulted in a large amount of discarded data. Conversely, the penalised likelihood technique allows retention of all trial information and enables precise and reliable surrogate estimation. The information theory approach is a critical tool for conducting surrogate evaluation. This work strengthens the practical application of the information theory approach, allowing analyses to be adapted or the results summarised with appropriate caution to mitigate the biases highlighted. This is especially true where separation occurs. The adoption of the penalised likelihood technique into information theory surrogate evaluation is a useful addition that solves an issue likely to arise frequently in the context of categorical endpoints.

Informed decision-making: Statistical methodology for surrogacy evaluation and its role in licensing and reimbursement assessments.

The desire, by patients and society, for faster access to therapies has driven a long tradition of the use of surrogate endpoints in the evaluation of pharmaceuticals and, more recently, biologics and other innovative medical technologies. The consequent need for statistical validation of potential surrogate outcome measures is a prime example on the theme of statistical support for decision-making in health technology assessment (HTA). Following the pioneering methodology based on hypothesis testing that Prentice presented in 1989, a host of further methods, both frequentist and Bayesian, have been developed to enable the value of a putative surrogate outcome to be determined. This rich methodological seam has generated practical methods for surrogate evaluation, the most recent of which are based on the principles of information theory and bring together ideas from the causal effects and causal association paradigms. Following our synopsis of statistical methods, we then consider how regulatory authorities (on licensing) and payer and HTA agencies (on reimbursement) use clinical trial evidence based on surrogate outcomes. We review existing HTA surrogate outcome evaluative frameworks. We conclude with recommendations for further steps: (1) prioritisation by regulators and payers of the application of formal surrogate outcome evaluative frameworks, (2) application of formal Bayesian decision-analytic methods to support reimbursement decisions, and (3) greater utilization of conditional surrogate-based licensing and reimbursement approvals, with subsequent reassessment of treatments in confirmatory trials based on final patient-relevant outcomes.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of more sensitive cardiac troponin assays has led to increased recognition of myocardial injury in acute illnesses other than acute coronary syndrome. The Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction recommends high-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing and classification of patients with myocardial injury based on pathogenesis, but the clinical implications of implementing this guideline are not well understood. METHODS: In a stepped-wedge cluster randomized, controlled trial, we implemented a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay and the recommendations of the Universal Definition in 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. In a prespecified secondary analysis, we compared the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death and secondary outcome of noncardiovascular death at 1 year across diagnostic categories. RESULTS: Implementation increased the diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction by 11% (510/4471), type 2 myocardial infarction by 22% (205/916), and acute and chronic myocardial injury by 36% (443/1233) and 43% (389/898), respectively. Compared with those without myocardial injury, the rate of the primary outcome was highest in those with type 1 myocardial infarction (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 5.64 [95% CI, 5.12-6.22]), but was similar across diagnostic categories, whereas noncardiovascular deaths were highest in those with acute myocardial injury (cause specific HR 2.65 [95% CI, 2.33-3.01]). Despite modest increases in antiplatelet therapy and coronary revascularization after implementation in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction, the primary outcome was unchanged (cause specific HR 1.00 [95% CI, 0.82-1.21]). Increased recognition of type 2 myocardial infarction and myocardial injury did not lead to changes in investigation, treatment or outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays and the recommendations of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction identified patients at high-risk of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular events but was not associated with consistent increases in treatment or improved outcomes. Trials of secondary prevention are urgently required to determine whether this risk is modifiable in patients without type 1 myocardial infarction. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01852123.

Costs and staffing resource requirements for adaptive clinical trials: quantitative and qualitative results from the Costing Adaptive Trials project.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive designs offer great promise in improving the efficiency and patient-benefit of clinical trials. An important barrier to further increased use is a lack of understanding about which additional resources are required to conduct a high-quality adaptive clinical trial, compared to a traditional fixed design. The Costing Adaptive Trials (CAT) project investigated which additional resources may be required to support adaptive trials. METHODS: We conducted a mock costing exercise amongst seven Clinical Trials Units (CTUs) in the UK. Five scenarios were developed, derived from funded clinical trials, where a non-adaptive version and an adaptive version were described. Each scenario represented a different type of adaptive design. CTU staff were asked to provide the costs and staff time they estimated would be needed to support the trial, categorised into specified areas (e.g. statistics, data management, trial management). This was calculated separately for the non-adaptive and adaptive version of the trial, allowing paired comparisons. Interviews with 10 CTU staff who had completed the costing exercise were conducted by qualitative researchers to explore reasons for similarities and differences. RESULTS: Estimated resources associated with conducting an adaptive trial were always (moderately) higher than for the non-adaptive equivalent. The median increase was between 2 and 4% for all scenarios, except for sample size re-estimation which was 26.5% (as the adaptive design could lead to a lengthened study period). The highest increase was for statistical staff, with lower increases for data management and trial management staff. The percentage increase in resources varied across different CTUs. The interviews identified possible explanations for differences, including (1) experience in adaptive trials, (2) the complexity of the non-adaptive and adaptive design, and (3) the extent of non-trial specific core infrastructure funding the CTU had. CONCLUSIONS: This work sheds light on additional resources required to adequately support a high-quality adaptive trial. The percentage increase in costs for supporting an adaptive trial was generally modest and should not be a barrier to adaptive designs being cost-effective to use in practice. Informed by the results of this research, guidance for investigators and funders will be developed on appropriately resourcing adaptive trials.

Prevalence of multimorbidity and its impact on survival in people with motor neuron disease.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity in people with motor neuron disease (MND) and to identify whether specific patterns of multimorbidity impact survival beyond age alone. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the Scottish national MND register from 1 January 2015 to 29 October 2019. People with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, primary lateral sclerosis, progressive muscular atrophy, or progressive bulbar palsy were included. We fitted latent class regression models incorporating comorbidities (class indicators), age, sex, and bulbar onset (covariates), and survival (distal outcome) with multimorbidity as a hypothesised latent variable. We also investigated the association between the Charlson Comorbidity Index and survival in Cox regression and compared its discrimination and calibration to age alone. RESULTS: A total of 937 people with MND were identified (median age = 67 years, 60.2% male); 64.8% (n = 515) had two or more comorbidities. We identified a subpopulation with high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, but when accounting for the relationship between age and individual comorbidities, there was no difference in survival. Both Charlson Comorbidity Index (hazard ratio [HR] per unit increase = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.15, p < 0.0001) and age (HR per year increase = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03-1.05, p < 0.0001) were significantly associated with survival, but discrimination was higher for age compared to Charlson Comorbidity Index (C-index = 0.63 vs. 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is common in MND, necessitating holistic interdisciplinary management, but age is the dominant predictor of prognosis in people with MND. Excluding people with MND and multimorbidity from trial participation may do little to homogenise the cohort in terms of survival potential and could harm generalisability.

Non-adjustment for multiple testing in multi-arm trials of distinct treatments: Rationale and justification.

There is currently a lack of consensus and uncertainty about whether one should adjust for multiple testing in multi-arm trials of distinct treatments. A detailed rationale is presented to justify non-adjustment in this situation. We argue that non-adjustment should be the default starting position in simple multi-arm trials of distinct treatments.

Evaluation of surrogacy in the multi-trial setting based on information theory: an extension to ordinal outcomes.

In clinical trials, surrogate outcomes are early measures of treatment effect that are used to predict treatment effect on a later primary outcome of interest: the primary outcome therefore does not need to be observed and trials can be shortened. Evaluating surrogates is a complex area as a given treatment can act through multiple pathways, some of which may circumvent the surrogate. One of the best established and practically sound approaches to surrogacy evaluation is based on information theory. We have extended this approach to the case of ordinal outcomes, which are used as primary outcomes in many medical areas. This extension provides researchers with the means of evaluating surrogates in this setting, which expands the usefulness of the information theory approach while also demonstrating its versatility.

Frailty assessment and risk prediction by GRACE score in older patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction after myocardial infarction is often complex in older patients. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model includes clinical parameters and age, but not frailty. We hypothesised that frailty would enhance the prognostic properties of GRACE. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational cohort study in two independent cardiology units: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (primary cohort) and the South Yorkshire Cardiothoracic Centre, Sheffield, UK (external validation). The study sample included 198 patients ≥65 years old hospitalised with type 1 myocardial infarction (primary cohort) and 96 patients ≥65 years old undergoing cardiac catheterisation for myocardial infarction (external validation). Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The GRACE 2.0 estimated risk of 12-month mortality, Charlson comorbidity index and Karnofsky disability scale were also determined for each patient. RESULTS: Forty (20%) patients were frail (CFS ≥5). These individuals had greater comorbidity, functional impairment and a higher risk of death at 12 months (49% vs. 9% in non-frail patients, p < 0.001). The hazard of 12-month all-cause mortality nearly doubled per point increase in CFS after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidity (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.44, p < 0.001). The CFS had good discrimination for mortality by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (Area Under the Curve [AUC] 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.89) and enhanced the GRACE estimate (AUC 0.86 vs. 0.80 without CFS, p = 0.04). At existing GRACE thresholds, the CFS resulted in a Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) of 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.60, p < 0.001), largely through reductions in risk estimates amongst non-frail patients. Similar findings were observed in the external validation cohort (NRI 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.69, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The GRACE score overestimated mortality risk after myocardial infarction in these cohorts of older patients. The CFS is a simple guided frailty tool that may enhance prediction in this setting. These findings merit evaluation in larger cohorts of unselected patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT02302014 (November 26th 2014, retrospectively registered).

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: 2·6 million pregnancies were estimated to have ended in stillbirth in 2015. The aim of the AFFIRM study was to test the hypothesis that introduction of a reduced fetal movement (RFM), care package for pregnant women and clinicians that increased women's awareness of the need for prompt reporting of RFM and that standardised management, including timely delivery, would alter the incidence of stillbirth. METHODS: This stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial was done in the UK and Ireland. Participating maternity hospitals were grouped and randomised, using a computer-generated allocation scheme, to one of nine intervention implementation dates (at 3 month intervals). This date was concealed from clusters and the trial team until 3 months before the implementation date. Each participating hospital had three observation periods: a control period from Jan 1, 2014, until randomised date of intervention initiation; a washout period from the implementation date and for 2 months; and the intervention period from the end of the washout period until Dec 31, 2016. Treatment allocation was not concealed from participating women and caregivers. Data were derived from observational maternity data. The primary outcome was incidence of stillbirth. The primary analysis was done according to the intention-to-treat principle, with births analysed according to whether they took place during the control or intervention periods, irrespective of whether the intervention had been implemented as planned. This study is registered with www.ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01777022. FINDINGS: 37 hospitals were enrolled in the study. Four hospitals declined participation, and 33 hospitals were randomly assigned to an intervention implementation date. Between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec, 31, 2016, data were collected from 409 175 pregnancies (157 692 deliveries during the control period, 23 623 deliveries in the washout period, and 227 860 deliveries in the intervention period). The incidence of stillbirth was 4·40 per 1000 births during the control period and 4·06 per 1000 births in the intervention period (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·75-1·07; p=0·23). INTERPRETATION: The RFM care package did not reduce the risk of stillbirths. The benefits of a policy that promotes awareness of RFM remains unproven. FUNDING: Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Government (CZH/4/882), Tommy's Centre for Maternal and Fetal Health, Sands.

High-sensitivity troponin in the evaluation of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays permit use of lower thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but whether this improves clinical outcomes is unknown. We aimed to determine whether the introduction of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay with a sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold would reduce subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: In this stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial across ten secondary or tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the implementation of an hs-cTnI assay in consecutive patients who had been admitted to the hospitals' emergency departments with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they presented with suspected acute coronary syndrome and had paired cardiac troponin measurements from the standard care and trial assays. During a validation phase of 6-12 months, results from the hs-cTnI assay were concealed from the attending clinician, and a contemporary cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay was used to guide care. Hospitals were randomly allocated to early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation, in which the high-sensitivity assay and sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold was introduced immediately after the 6-month validation phase or was deferred for a further 6 months. Patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay were defined as those with an increased hs-cTnI concentration in whom cTnI concentrations were below the diagnostic threshold on the contemporary assay. The primary outcome was subsequent myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular causes at 1 year after initial presentation. Outcomes were compared in patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay before and after its implementation by use of an adjusted generalised linear mixed model. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01852123. FINDINGS: Between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, we enrolled 48 282 consecutive patients (61 [SD 17] years, 47% women) of whom 10 360 (21%) patients had cTnI concentrations greater than those of the 99th centile of the normal range of values, who were identified by the contemporary assay or the high-sensitivity assay. The high-sensitivity assay reclassified 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction who were not identified by the contemporary assay. In those reclassified, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death within 1 year occurred in 105 (15%) of 720 patients in the validation phase and 131 (12%) of 1051 patients in the implementation phase (adjusted odds ratio for implementation vs validation phase 1·10, 95% CI 0·75 to 1·61; p=0·620). INTERPRETATION: Use of a high-sensitivity assay prompted reclassification of 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction, but was not associated with a lower subsequent incidence of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year. Our findings question whether the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction should be based on the 99th centile derived from a normal reference population. FUNDING: The British Heart Foundation.

Delirium detection in older acute medical inpatients: a multicentre prospective comparative diagnostic test accuracy study of the 4AT and the confusion assessment method.

BACKGROUND: Delirium affects > 15% of hospitalised patients but is grossly underdetected, contributing to poor care. The 4 'A's Test (4AT, www.the4AT.com ) is a short delirium assessment tool designed for routine use without special training. The primary objective was to assess the accuracy of the 4AT for delirium detection. The secondary objective was to compare the 4AT with another commonly used delirium assessment tool, the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM). METHODS: This was a prospective diagnostic test accuracy study set in emergency departments or acute medical wards involving acute medical patients aged ≥ 70. All those without acutely life-threatening illness or coma were eligible. Patients underwent (1) reference standard delirium assessment based on DSM-IV criteria and (2) were randomised to either the index test (4AT, scores 0-12; prespecified score of > 3 considered positive) or the comparator (CAM; scored positive or negative), in a random order, using computer-generated pseudo-random numbers, stratified by study site, with block allocation. Reference standard and 4AT or CAM assessments were performed by pairs of independent raters blinded to the results of the other assessment. RESULTS: Eight hundred forty-three individuals were randomised: 21 withdrew, 3 lost contact, 32 indeterminate diagnosis, 2 missing outcome, and 785 were included in the analysis. Mean age was 81.4 (SD 6.4) years. 12.1% (95/785) had delirium by reference standard assessment, 14.3% (56/392) by 4AT, and 4.7% (18/384) by CAM. The 4AT had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90 (95% CI 0.84-0.96). The 4AT had a sensitivity of 76% (95% CI 61-87%) and a specificity of 94% (95% CI 92-97%). The CAM had a sensitivity of 40% (95% CI 26-57%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%). CONCLUSIONS: The 4AT is a short, pragmatic tool which can help improving detection rates of delirium in routine clinical care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International standard randomised controlled trial number (ISRCTN) 53388093 . Date applied 30/05/2014; date assigned 02/06/2014.