When Space and Time Matter in Environmental Injustice: A Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Socio-economic Disadvantage and Air Pollution in Greater Mexico City.

Environmental injustice refers to the unequal burden of pollutants on groups with lower socioeconomic status. An increasing number of studies have identified associations between high levels of pollution and socioeconomic disadvantage. However, few studies have controlled adequately for spatio-temporal variations in pollution. This study uses a Bayesian approach to explore the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and pollution in Mexico City Metropolitan Area. We quantify the association of socioeconomic disadvantage with PM10 and ozone and evaluate the impact of accounting for spatio-temporal structure of the pollution data. We find a significant positive association between socio-economic disadvantage and pollution for levels of PM10, but not ozone. The inclusion of the spatio-temporal element in the modeling results in improved weaker estimates of this association but this does not alter results substantially. These findings confirm the robustness of previous studies that found signs of environmental injustice where spatio-temporal variations have not been explicitly considered, confirming that targeted policies to reduce pollution in socio-economically disadvantaged areas are required.

Association of environmental and socioeconomic indicators with serious mental illness diagnoses identified from general practitioner practice data in England: A spatial Bayesian modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence is sparse regarding the associations between serious mental illnesses (SMIs) prevalence and environmental factors in adulthood as well as the geographic distribution and variability of these associations. In this study, we evaluated the association between availability and proximity of green and blue space with SMI prevalence in England as a whole and in its major conurbations (Greater London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, Leeds, and Newcastle). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We carried out a retrospective analysis of routinely collected adult population (≥18 years) data at General Practitioner Practice (GPP) level. We used data from the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) on the prevalence of a diagnosis of SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses, and other patients on lithium therapy) at the level of GPP over the financial year April 2014 to March 2018. The number of GPPs included ranged between 7,492 (April 2017 to March 2018) to 7,997 (April 2014 to March 2015) and the number of patients ranged from 56,413,719 (April 2014 to March 2015) to 58,270,354 (April 2017 to March 2018). Data at GPP level were converted to the geographic hierarchy unit Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level for analysis. LSOAs are a geographic unit for reporting small area statistics and have an average population of around 1,500 people. We employed a Bayesian spatial regression model to explore the association of SMI prevalence in England and its major conurbations (greater London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, Leeds, and Newcastle) with environmental characteristics (green and blue space, flood risk areas, and air and noise pollution) and socioeconomic characteristics (age, ethnicity, and index of multiple deprivation (IMD)). We incorporated spatial random effects in our modelling to account for variation at multiple scales. Across England, the environmental characteristics associated with higher SMI prevalence at LSOA level were distance to public green space with a lake (prevalence ratio [95% credible interval]): 1.002 [1.001 to 1.003]), annual mean concentration of PM2.5 (1.014 [1.01 to 1.019]), and closeness to roads with noise levels above 75 dB (0.993 [0.992 to 0.995]). Higher SMI prevalence was also associated with a higher percentage of people above 24 years old (1.002 [1.002 to 1.003]), a higher percentage of ethnic minorities (1.002 [1.001 to 1.002]), and more deprived areas. Mean SMI prevalence at LSOA level in major conurbations mirrored the national associations with a few exceptions. In Birmingham, higher average SMI prevalence at LSOA level was positively associated with proximity to an urban green space with a lake (0.992 [0.99 to 0.998]). In Liverpool and Manchester, lower SMI prevalence was positively associated with road traffic noise ≥75 dB (1.012 [1.003 to 1.022]). In Birmingham, Liverpool, and Manchester, there was a positive association of SMI prevalence with distance to flood zone 3 (land within flood zone 3 has ≥1% chance of flooding annually from rivers or ≥0.5% chance of flooding annually from the sea, when flood defences are ignored): Birmingham: 1.012 [1.000 to 1.023]; Liverpool and Manchester: 1.016 [1.006 to 1.026]. In contrast, in Leeds, there was a negative association between SMI prevalence and distance to flood zone 3 (0.959 [0.944 to 0.975]). A limitation of this study was because we used a cross-sectional approach, we are unable to make causal inferences about our findings or investigate the temporal relationship between outcome and risk factors. Another limitation was that individuals who are exclusively treated under specialist mental health care and not seen in primary care at all were not included in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further evidence on the significance of socioeconomic associations in patterns of SMI but emphasises the additional importance of considering environmental characteristics alongside socioeconomic variables in understanding these patterns. In this study, we did not observe a significant association between green space and SMI prevalence, but we did identify an apparent association between green spaces with a lake and SMI prevalence. Deprivation, higher concentrations of air pollution, and higher proportion of ethnic minorities were associated with higher SMI prevalence, supporting a social-ecological approach to public health prevention. It also provides evidence of the significance of spatial analysis in revealing the importance of place and context in influencing area-based patterns of SMI.

A mechanistic model captures livestock trading, disease dynamics, and compensatory behaviour in response to control measures.

Trade is a complex, multi-faceted process that can contribute to the spread and persistence of disease. We here develop novel mechanistic models of supply. Our model is framed within a livestock trading system, where farms form and end trade partnerships with rates dependent on current demand, with these trade partnerships facilitating trade between partners. With these time-varying, stock dependent partnership and trade dynamics, our trading model goes beyond current state of the art modelling approaches. By studying instantaneous shocks to farm-level supply and demand we show that behavioural responses of farms lead to trading systems that are highly resistant to shocks with only temporary disturbances to trade observed. Individual adaptation in response to permanent alterations to trading propensities, such that animal flows are maintained, illustrates the ability for farms to find new avenues of trade, minimising disruptions imposed by such alterations to trade that common modelling approaches cannot adequately capture. In the context of endemic disease control, we show that these adaptations hinder the potential beneficial reductions in prevalence such changes to trading propensities have previously been shown to confer. Assessing the impact of a common disease control measure, post-movement batch testing, highlights the ability for our model to measure the stress on multiple components of trade imposed by such control measures and also highlights the temporary and, in some cases, the permanent disturbances to trade that post-movement testing has on the trading system.

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities.

Cumulative and synergistic impacts from environmental pressures, particularly in low-lying tropical coastal regions, present challenges for the governance of ecosystems, which provide natural resource-based livelihoods for communities. Here, we seek to understand the relationship between responses to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events and the vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Caribbean region of Colombia. Using two case study sites, we show how communities are impacted by, and undertake reactive short-term responses to, El Niño and La Niña events, and how such responses can affect their adaptive capacity to progressive environmental deterioration. We show that certain coping measures to climate variability currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in circumstances that could contribute to system 'lock-in' and engender undesirable ecological states, exacerbating future livelihood vulnerabilities. We highlight the significant role of social barriers on vulnerabilities within the region, including perceptions of state abandonment, mistrust and conflicts with authorities. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability include enhancing the communities' capacity to adopt more positive and preventative responses based on demonstrable experiential learning capacity. However, these will require close cooperation between formal and informal organisations at different levels, and the development of shared coherent adaptation strategies to manage the complexity of multiple interacting environmental and climatic pressures.

Repurposing NGO data for better research outcomes: a scoping review of the use and secondary analysis of NGO data in health policy and systems research.

BACKGROUND: Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) collect and generate vast amounts of potentially rich data, most of which are not used for research purposes. Secondary analysis of NGO data (their use and analysis in a study for which they were not originally collected) presents an important but largely unrealised opportunity to provide new research insights in critical areas, including the evaluation of health policy and programmes. METHODS: A scoping review of the published literature was performed to identify the extent to which secondary analysis of NGO data has been used in health policy and systems research (HPSR). A tiered analytical approach provided a comprehensive overview and descriptive analyses of the studies that (1) used data produced or collected by or about NGOs; (2) performed secondary analysis of the NGO data (beyond the use of an NGO report as a supporting reference); and (3) analysed NGO-collected clinical data. RESULTS: Of the 156 studies that performed secondary analysis of NGO-produced or collected data, 64% (n = 100) used NGO-produced reports (mostly to a limited extent, as a contextual reference or to critique NGO activities) and 8% (n = 13) analysed NGO-collected clinical data. Of these studies, 55% (n = 86) investigated service delivery research topics and 48% (n = 51) were undertaken in developing countries and 17% (n = 27) in both developing and developed countries. NGOs were authors or co-authors of 26% of the studies. NGO-collected clinical data enabled HPSR within marginalised groups (e.g. migrants, people in conflict-affected areas), albeit with some limitations such as inconsistent and missing data. CONCLUSION: We found evidence that NGO-collected and produced data are most commonly perceived as a source of supporting evidence for HPSR and not as primary source data. However, these data can facilitate research in under-researched marginalised groups and in contexts that are hard to reach by academics such as conflict-affected areas. NGO-academic collaboration could help address issues of NGO data quality to facilitate their more widespread use in research. The use of NGO data use could enable relevant and timely research in the areas of programme evaluation and health policy and advocacy to improve health and reduce health inequalities, especially in marginalised groups and developing countries.

Are we ready to use nature gardens to treat stress-related illnesses?

In this issue, Stigsdotter et al show that nature gardens offer similar benefits to cognitive-behavioural therapy for managing stress-related illnesses among people on sick leave. There is scope for pragmatic trials to establish the processes involved and highlight the co-benefits that nature gardens offer for health and the environment.Declaration of interestNone.

Using Combined Diagnostic Test Results to Hindcast Trends of Infection from Cross-Sectional Data.

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to 'hindcast' (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time.

Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs.

The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits.

A continued supply of ecosystem services (ES) from a system depends on the resilience of that system to withstand shocks and perturbations. In many parts of the world, climate change is leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, potentially influencing ES provision. Our study of the effects of an intense rainfall event in Gorce National Park, Poland, shows: (1) the intense rainfall event impacted heavily on the supply of ES by limiting potential recreation opportunities and reducing erosion prevention; (2) these negative impacts were not only restricted to the period of the extreme event but persisted for up to several years, depending on the pre-event trail conditions and post-event management activities; (3) to restore the pre-event supply of ES, economic investments were required in the form of active repairs to trails, which, in Gorce National Park, were an order of magnitude higher than the costs of normal trail maintenance; and (4) when recreational trails were left to natural restoration, loss of biodiversity was observed, and recovery rates of ES (recreation opportunities and soil erosion prevention) were reduced in comparison to their pre-event state. We conclude that proper trail design and construction provides a good solution to avoid some of the negative impacts of extreme events on recreation, as well as offering co-benefits in terms of protecting biodiversity and enhancing the supply of regulating services such as erosion prevention.

Patterns and processes in abundance-body size relationships for marine benthic invertebrates.

1. The nature of abundance-body size relationships in animal communities, and especially the drivers behind the observed patterns, have been a focus of persistent debate in animal ecology. In a recent review, Allen et al. (2006) categorized five mechanistic explanations behind the commonly observed polymodality in these relationships: energetic constraints; phylogenetic constraints; biogeographical determinants; habitat structure; and community interactions. Progress in understanding of these patterns and the processes underlying them have been hindered by the use of a range of methods that differ in their validity and robustness. 2. Here, we used data on invertebrate body sizes from a variety of sandy beaches in the UK to test the hypothesis that these communities display modality in their abundance-body size relationships. We quantified modality in the relationships using kernel density estimation and smoothed bootstrap resampling and then evaluated the competing explanations for this modality based on the patterns identified in conjunction with measurements of the physical beach environment. 3. We found bimodal distributions in the body size spectrum for benthic invertebrates at nine of 16 sites. There was a consistent trough in the spectrum at around 0·5-1 mm diameter, which reflected the traditional split between meiofauna and macrofauna. Beaches with finer particle sizes and more heterogeneous macrofauna hosted communities with more than two modes. 4. Our results suggest that modality in sandy beach benthic communities is unlikely to be explained by any single hypothesis. There will be an interplay between physical and biological factors, with different explanations accounting for modality at different scales.

Stakeholder participation in management of invasive vertebrates.

Stakeholders are increasingly involved in species conservation. We sought to understand what features of a participatory conservation program are associated with its ecological and social outcomes. We conducted a case study of the management of invasive vertebrates in Australia. Invasive vertebrates are a substantial threat to Australia's native species, and stakeholder participation in their management is often necessary for their control. First, we identified potential influences on the ecological and social outcomes of species conservation programs from the literature. We used this information to devise an interview questionnaire, which we administered to managers of 34 participatory invasive-vertebrate programs. Effects of invasive species were related to program initiator (agency or citizen), reasons for use of a participatory approach, and stakeholder composition. Program initiator was also related to the participation methods used, level of governance (i.e., governed by an agency or citizens), changes in stakeholder interactions, and changes in abundance of invasive species. Ecological and social outcomes were related to changes in abundance of invasive species and stakeholder satisfaction. We identified relations between changes in the number of participants, stakeholder satisfaction, and occurrence of conflict. Potential ways to achieve ecological and social goals include provision of governmental support (e.g., funding) to stakeholders and minimization of gaps in representation of stakeholder groups or individuals to, for example, increase conflict mitigation. Our findings provide guidance for increasing the probability of achieving ecological and social objectives in management of invasive vertebrates and may be applicable to other participatory conservation programs.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

BACKGROUND: The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. RESULTS: The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. CONCLUSIONS: External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: The continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals). RESULTS: Large herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: This paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.

Functional measures as potential indicators of down-the-drain chemical stress in freshwater ecological risk assessment.

Conventional ecological risk assessment (ERA) predominately evaluates the impact of individual chemical stressors on a limited range of taxa, which are assumed to act as proxies to predict impacts on freshwater ecosystem function. However, it is recognized that this approach has limited ecological relevance. We reviewed the published literature to identify measures that are potential functional indicators of down-the-drain chemical stress, as an approach to building more ecological relevance into ERA. We found wide variation in the use of the term "ecosystem function," and concluded it is important to distinguish between measures of processes and measures of the capacity for processes (i.e., species' functional traits). Here, we present a classification of potential functional indicators and suggest that including indicators more directly connected with processes will improve the detection of impacts on ecosystem functioning. The rate of leaf litter breakdown, oxygen production, carbon dioxide consumption, and biomass production have great potential to be used as functional indicators. However, the limited supporting evidence means that further study is needed before these measures can be fully implemented and interpreted within an ERA and regulatory context. Sensitivity to chemical stress is likely to vary among functional indicators depending on the stressor and ecosystem context. Therefore, we recommend that ERA incorporates a variety of indicators relevant to each aspect of the function of interest, such as a direct measure of a process (e.g., rate of leaf litter breakdown) and a capacity for a process (e.g., functional composition of macroinvertebrates), alongside structural indicators (e.g., taxonomic diversity of macroinvertebrates). Overall, we believe that the consideration of functional indicators can add value to ERA by providing greater ecological relevance, particularly in relation to indirect effects, functional compensation (Box 1), interactions of multiple stressors, and the importance of ecosystem context. Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1135-1147. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Co-production of a nature-based intervention for children with ADHD study (CONIFAS): Protocol for co-production phases.

Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder can face difficulties with inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity, which can impact many areas of their lives, including their educational attainment and social and emotional wellbeing. Involvement in nature-based activities can reduce these difficulties and improve wellbeing, but there are limited resources for supporting children with this diagnosis to access these approaches and no nature-based interventions designed with and for this group. This protocol describes a co-production study in which children diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder aged 5-11 years old, their parents/guardians, and professionals will attend a series of workshops to share their knowledge to co-produce a new nature-based intervention for this population of children. We aim to understand how the children's' experiences of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder may affect their interactions with nature, identify how activity in and with nature may help with symptom reduction and general wellbeing, and co-produce an intervention for families which applies our learning. The result of this study will be the designed intervention and insights into how children and young people with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder interact with nature. The prototype intervention will then undergo feasibility testing in a future study. Trail registration: NIHR203043; ISRCTN11763460.

Impact of biodiversity-climate futures on primary production and metabolism in a model benthic estuarine system.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the effects of anthropogenically-driven changes in global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and biodiversity on the functionality of marine ecosystems is crucial for predicting and managing the associated impacts. Coastal ecosystems are important sources of carbon (primary production) to shelf waters and play a vital role in global nutrient cycling. These systems are especially vulnerable to the effects of human activities and will be the first areas impacted by rising sea levels. Within these coastal ecosystems, microalgal assemblages (microphytobenthos: MPB) are vital for autochthonous carbon fixation. The level of in situ production by MPB mediates the net carbon cycling of transitional ecosystems between net heterotrophic or autotrophic metabolism. In this study, we examine the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations (370, 600, and 1000 ppmv), temperature (6°C, 12°C, and 18°C) and invertebrate biodiversity on MPB biomass in experimental systems. We assembled communities of three common grazing invertebrates (Hydrobia ulvae, Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor) in monoculture and in all possible multispecies combinations. This experimental design specifically addresses interactions between the selected climate change variables and any ecological consequences caused by changes in species composition or richness. RESULTS: The effects of elevated CO(2) concentration, temperature and invertebrate diversity were not additive, rather they interacted to determine MPB biomass, and overall this effect was negative. Diversity effects were underpinned by strong species composition effects, illustrating the importance of individual species identity. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings suggest that in natural systems, the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and any associated changes in invertebrate assemblage structure are likely to reduce MPB biomass. Furthermore, these effects would be sufficient to affect the net metabolic balance of the coastal ecosystem, with important implications for system ecology and sustainable exploitation.

Generative models of network dynamics provide insight into the effects of trade on endemic livestock disease.

We develop and apply analytically tractable generative models of livestock movements at national scale. These go beyond current models through mechanistic modelling of heterogeneous trade partnership network dynamics and the trade events that occur on them. Linking resulting animal movements to disease transmission between farms yields analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number R 0. We show how these novel modelling tools enable systems approaches to disease control, using R 0 to explore impacts of changes in trading practices on between-farm prevalence levels. Using the Scottish cattle trade network as a case study, we show our approach captures critical complexities of real-world trade networks at the national scale for a broad range of endemic diseases. Changes in trading patterns that minimize disruption to business by maintaining in-flow of animals for each individual farm reduce R 0, with the largest reductions for diseases that are most challenging to eradicate. Incentivizing high-risk farms to adopt such changes exploits 'scale-free' properties of the system and is likely to be particularly effective in reducing national livestock disease burden and incursion risk. Encouragingly, gains made by such targeted modification of trade practices scale much more favourably than comparably targeted improvements to more commonly adopted farm-level biosecurity.

The species-area relationship and confounding variables in a threatened monkey community.

This study investigates the species-area relationship (SAR) for forest monkeys in a biodiversity hotspot. The Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania are well-suited to investigate the SAR, with seven monkey species in a range of fragment sizes (0.06-526 km(2)). We test the relationship between species richness and forest fragment size, relative to human and environmental factors. We distinguish resident and transitory species because the latter have an "effective patch size" beyond the area of forest. Forest area was the strongest (log-linear) predictor of species richness. However, forest area, elevation range and annual moisture index were intercorrelated. Previous knowledge of the relationship between elevation and tree communities suggests that the SAR is largely a result of habitat heterogeneity. Isolation by farmland (matrix habitat) also had a significant negative effect on species richness, probably exacerbated by hunting in small forests. The effect of area and isolation was less for transitory species. The human influence on species' presence/absence was negatively related to the extent of occurrence. Weaker relationships with temperature and precipitation suggest underlying climatic influences, and give some support for the influence of productivity. A reduced area relationship for smaller forests suggests that fragment sizes below 12-40 km(2) may not be reliable for determining SAR in forest monkeys. Further practical implications are for management to encourage connectivity, and for future SAR research to consider residency, matrix classification and moisture besides precipitation.

Assessment of temporal trends in ecosystem health using an holistic indicator.

The Ecosystem Approach to environmental management, with its explicit acknowledgment of the environmental, social and economic elements within ecological systems, is becoming increasingly adopted by managers and policy makers. However, there are few specific prescriptions as to exactly how these different elements should be integrated, or examples where historical changes have been tracked. Here, we assess the potential benefits and challenges of applying an Ecosystem Approach to management using one particular method, the Holistic Ecosystem Health Indicator (HEHI), which integrates data from the ecological, social and interactive dimensions into a single composite index of ecosystem 'health'. We apply it to one of the best-documented catchments in the UK, the Ythan Estuary in Aberdeenshire, Scotland, based on a 50-year time series of data. The evaluation of ecosystem health over time is lacking in previous applications of HEHI, yet is crucial for the assessment of the utility of this approach to ecosystem management. The application of HEHI yielded different insights to those revealed from the traditional application of biophysical approaches for managing the Ythan. Overall, ecological health declined through the 50-year period, although it increased marginally in the last decade, while social and interactive dimensions followed the opposite trend. HEHI indicated a steady increase in ecosystem health overall except for the last decade, when it declined marginally. Our evaluation of the application of ecosystem health for the Ythan revealed major data gaps. For the approach to be used more widely, issues of data availability and the temporal and geographical mismatch between ecological and social research boundaries need to be overcome.

Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Mental Health: A Narrative Synthesis and Meta-Analysis for the UK.

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of climate change and pose a significant threat to population mental health. This is the case even in temperate regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) where flooding and heat waves are forecast to become more common. We conducted a systematic review to quantify the prevalence and describe the causes of common mental health problems in populations exposed to extreme weather events in the UK. We searched Web of Science, EMBASE and PsycINFO for studies that measured the prevalence of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in populations exposed to extreme weather events in the UK, published up to 12 December 2019. We included 17 studies, four of which were included in meta-analyses to determine the point prevalence of common mental health problems in the period within 12 months following extreme weather events. The point prevalence was 19.8% for anxiety (k = 4; n = 1458; 95% CI 7.42 to 32.15), 21.35% for depression (k = 4; n = 1458; 95% CI 9.04 to 33.65) and 30.36% for PTSD (k = 4; n = 1359; 95% CI 11.68 to 49.05). Key factors that affected mental ill health in people exposed to flooding were water depth and absence of flood warnings. Displacement from home underscored the narratives associated with people's perceptions of the impact of flooding. The high prevalence of common mental health problems suggests that the prevention of mental ill health in populations at risk or exposed to extreme weather events should be a UK public health priority.