Risk Factors for Ebola Virus Persistence in Semen of Survivors in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) in immunologically privileged sites has been implicated in recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study was designed to understand how the acute course of EVD, convalescence, and host immune and genetic factors may play a role in prolonged viral persistence in semen. METHODS: A cohort of 131 male EVD survivors in Liberia were enrolled in a case-case study. "Early clearers" were defined as those with 2 consecutive negative EBOV semen test results by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) ≥2 weeks apart within 1 year after discharge from the Ebola treatment unit or acute EVD. "Late clearers" had detectable EBOV RNA by rRT-PCR >1 year after discharge from the Ebola treatment unit or acute EVD. Retrospective histories of their EVD clinical course were collected by questionnaire, followed by complete physical examinations and blood work. RESULTS: Compared with early clearers, late clearers were older (median, 42.5 years; P < .001) and experienced fewer severe clinical symptoms (median 2, P = .006). Late clearers had more lens opacifications (odds ratio, 3.9 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-13.3]; P = .03), after accounting for age, higher total serum immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) titers (P = .005), and increased expression of the HLA-C*03:04 allele (0.14 [.02-.70]; P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, decreased illness severity, elevated total serum IgG3 and HLA-C*03:04 allele expression may be risk factors for the persistence of EBOV in the semen of EVD survivors. EBOV persistence in semen may also be associated with its persistence in other immunologically protected sites, such as the eye.

Evaluation of Ethiopia's field epidemiology training program - frontline: perspectives of implementing partners.

BACKGROUND: Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) has been adopted as an epidemiology and response capacity building strategy worldwide. FETP-Frontline was introduced in Ethiopia in 2017 as a three-month in-service training. In this study, we evaluated implementing partners' perspectives with the aim of understanding program effectiveness and identifying challenges and recommendations for improvement. METHODS: A qualitative cross-sectional design was utilized to evaluate Ethiopia's FETP-Frontline. Using a descriptive phenomenological approach, qualitative data were collected from FETP-Frontline implementing partners, including regional, zonal, and district health offices across Ethiopia. We collected data through in-person key informant interviews, using semi-structured questionnaires. Thematic analysis was conducted, assisted with MAXQDA, while ensuring interrater reliability by using the consistent application of theme categorization. The major themes that emerged were program effectiveness, knowledge and skills differences between trained and untrained officers, program challenges, and recommended actions for improvement. Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Informed written consent was obtained from all participants, and confidentiality of the data was maintained throughout. RESULTS: A total of 41 interviews were conducted with key informants from FETP-Frontline implementing partners. The regional and zonal level experts and mentors had a Master of Public Health (MPH), whereas district health managers were Bachelor of Science (BSc) holders. Majority of the respondents reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline. Regional and zonal officers as well as mentors mentioned that there were observable performance differences between trained and untrained district surveillance officers. They also identified various challenges including lack of resources for transportation, budget constraints for field projects, inadequate mentorship, high staff turnover, limited number of staff at the district level, lack of continued support from stakeholders, and the need for refresher training for FETP-Frontline graduates. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing partners reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline in Ethiopia. In addition to scaling-up the program to reach all districts to achieve the International Health Regulation 2005 goals, the program also needs to consider addressing immediate challenges, primarily lack of resources and poor mentorship. Continued monitoring of the program, refresher training, and career path development could improve retention of the trained workforce.

Characteristics of Ebola Virus Disease Survivor Blood and Semen in Liberia: Serology and Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR).

INTRODUCTION: Ebola virus (EBOV), species Zaire ebolavirus, may persist in the semen of male survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). We conducted a study of male survivors of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Liberia and evaluated their immune responses to EBOV. We report here findings from the serologic testing of blood for EBOV-specific antibodies, molecular testing for EBOV in blood and semen, and serologic testing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in a subset of study participants. METHODS: We tested for EBOV RNA in blood by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), and for anti-EBOV-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for 126 study participants. We performed PBMC analysis on a subgroup of 26 IgG-negative participants. RESULTS: All 126 participants tested negative for EBOV RNA in blood by qRT-PCR. The blood of 26 participants tested negative for EBOV-specific IgG antibodies by ELISA. PBMCs were collected from 23/26 EBOV IgG-negative participants. Of these, 1/23 participants had PBMCs that produced anti-EBOV-specific IgG antibodies upon stimulation with EBOV-specific glycoprotein (GP) and nucleoprotein (NP) antigens. CONCLUSIONS: The blood of EVD survivors, collected when they did not have symptoms meeting the case definition for acute or relapsed EVD, is unlikely to pose a risk for EBOV transmission. We identified 1 IgM/IgG negative participant who had PBMCs that produced anti-EBOV-specific antibodies upon stimulation. Immunogenicity following acute EBOV infection may exist along a spectrum, and absence of antibody response should not be exclusionary in determining an individual's status as a survivor of EVD.

Population pharmacokinetic model of subcutaneous fentanyl in older acute care patients.

PURPOSE: Subcutaneous fentanyl injection is commonly prescribed to manage acute pain in older patients; however, there is a gap in the literature describing the pharmacokinetic parameters for this route of administration in this population. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a population pharmacokinetic model for subcutaneous fentanyl injection in older patients. METHODS: Twenty-one patients who received subcutaneous fentanyl injections (50 to 75 µg) were recruited. Fentanyl concentrations were determined using a validated liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry method. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed using non-linear mixed-effects modelling. A base model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Age, sex, body weight, number of previous fentanyl doses, number of prescribed medications, creatinine clearance, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Identification of Seniors at Risk score and concurrent use of CYP3A4 inhibitors were covariates considered for inclusion. A p value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant for inclusion of covariates in the final model by stepwise addition. The simulation performance of the model was assessed by visual predictive check. RESULTS: A one-compartment, first-order absorption with lag time and linear elimination model was the best to fit to the fentanyl concentration data. The absorption rate constant was 0.136 h-1 (between subject variability (BSV), 46%), lag time 0.66 h (BSV 51%), apparent volume of distribution 6.28 L (BSV 30%), and apparent clearance 16.3 L.h-1 (BSV 54%). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was the only covariate included in the final model, where a higher value of the index increased fentanyl exposure and Cmax. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of subcutaneous fentanyl population pharmacokinetic model to evaluate fentanyl pharmacokinetic in older patients. The between subject variability in clearance and subcutaneous absorption rate was relatively high, and some patients recorded high fentanyl concentrations in the context of their titration to effect.

Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment.

Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports-supported U.S. jobs, 2005-2016. Estimates were obtained using difference-in-differences models where sub-Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time-variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola-affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports-supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

Molecular Evidence of Sexual Transmission of Ebola Virus.

A suspected case of sexual transmission from a male survivor of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to his female partner (the patient in this report) occurred in Liberia in March 2015. Ebola virus (EBOV) genomes assembled from blood samples from the patient and a semen sample from the survivor were consistent with direct transmission. The genomes shared three substitutions that were absent from all other Western African EBOV sequences and that were distinct from the last documented transmission chain in Liberia before this case. Combined with epidemiologic data, the genomic analysis provides evidence of sexual transmission of EBOV and evidence of the persistence of infective EBOV in semen for 179 days or more after the onset of EVD. (Funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and others.).

Identifying High-Risk Individuals for Chronic Kidney Disease: Results of the CHERISH Community Demonstration Project.

BACKGROUND: Most people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not aware of their condition. OBJECTIVES: To assess screening criteria in identifying a population with or at high risk for CKD and to determine their level of control of CKD risk factors. METHOD: CKD Health Evaluation Risk Information Sharing (CHERISH), a demonstration project of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hosted screenings at 2 community locations in each of 4 states. People with diabetes, hypertension, or aged ≥50 years were eligible to participate. In addition to CKD, screening included testing and measures of hemoglobin A1C, blood pressure, and lipids. -Results: In this targeted population, among 894 people screened, CKD prevalence was 34%. Of participants with diabetes, 61% had A1C < 7%; of those with hypertension, 23% had blood pressure < 130/80 mm Hg; and of those with high cholesterol, 22% had low-density lipoprotein < 100 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Using targeted selection criteria and simple clinical measures, CHERISH successfully identified a population with a high CKD prevalence and with poor control of CKD risk factors. CHERISH may prove helpful to state and local programs in implementing CKD detection programs in their communities.

Race/Ethnicity, Dietary Acid Load, and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease among US Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Dietary acid load (DAL) contributes to the risk of CKD and CKD progression. We sought to determine the relation of DAL to racial/ethnic differences in the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among persons with CKD. METHODS: Among 1,123 non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-59 mL/min/1.73 m2, DAL was estimated using the Remer and Manz net acid excretion (NAEes) formula and 24-h dietary recall. ESRD events were ascertained via linkage with Medicare. A competing risk model (accounting for death) was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for treated ESRD, comparing NHBs with NHWs, adjusting for demographic, clinical and nutritional factors (body surface area, total caloric intake, serum bicarbonate, protein intake), and NAEes. Additionally, whether the relation of NAEes with ESRD risk varied by race/ethnicity was tested. RESULTS: At baseline, NHBs had greater NAEes (50.9 vs. 44.2 mEq/day) than NHWs. It was found that 22% developed ESRD over a median of 7.5 years. The unadjusted HR comparing NHBs to NHWs was 3.35 (95% CI 2.51-4.48) and adjusted HR (for factors above) was 1.68 (95% CI 1.18-2.38). A stronger association of NAE with risk of ESRD was observed among NHBs (adjusted HR per mEq/day increase in NAE 1.21, 95% CI 1.12-1.31) than that among NHWs (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.96-1.20), p interaction for race/ethnicity × NAEes = 0.004. CONCLUSIONS: Among US adults with CKD, the association of DAL with progression to ESRD is stronger among NHBs than NHWs. DAL is worthy of further investigation for its contribution to kidney outcomes across race/ethnic groups.

Ebola Response Impact on Public Health Programs, West Africa, 2014-2017.

Events such as the 2014-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus disease highlight the importance of the capacity to detect and respond to public health threats. We describe capacity-building efforts during and after the Ebola epidemic in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and public health progress that was made as a result of the Ebola response in 4 key areas: emergency response, laboratory capacity, surveillance, and workforce development. We further highlight ways in which capacity-building efforts such as those used in West Africa can be accelerated after a public health crisis to improve preparedness for future events.

Ebola Virus RNA in Semen from an HIV-Positive Survivor of Ebola.

Ebola virus is known to persist in semen of male survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). However, maximum duration of, or risk factors for, virus persistence are unknown. We report an EVD survivor with preexisting HIV infection, whose semen was positive for Ebola virus RNA 565 days after recovery from EVD.

Bolstering Community Cooperation in Ebola Resurgence Protocols: Combining Field Blood Draw and Point-of-Care Diagnosis.

Alison Galvani and colleagues describe a community-based protocol to improve cooperation with Ebola testing as well as contact tracing, quarantining, and treatment.

Changes in diabetes-related complications in the United States, 1990-2010.

BACKGROUND: Preventive care for adults with diabetes has improved substantially in recent decades. We examined trends in the incidence of diabetes-related complications in the United States from 1990 through 2010. METHODS: We used data from the National Health Interview Survey, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, the U.S. Renal Data System, and the U.S. National Vital Statistics System to compare the incidences of lower-extremity amputation, end-stage renal disease, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and death from hyperglycemic crisis between 1990 and 2010, with age standardized to the U.S. population in the year 2000. RESULTS: Rates of all five complications declined between 1990 and 2010, with the largest relative declines in acute myocardial infarction (-67.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -76.2 to -59.3) and death from hyperglycemic crisis (-64.4%; 95% CI, -68.0 to -60.9), followed by stroke and amputations, which each declined by approximately half (-52.7% and -51.4%, respectively); the smallest decline was in end-stage renal disease (-28.3%; 95% CI, -34.6 to -21.6). The greatest absolute decline was in the number of cases of acute myocardial infarction (95.6 fewer cases per 10,000 persons; 95% CI, 76.6 to 114.6), and the smallest absolute decline was in the number of deaths from hyperglycemic crisis (-2.7; 95% CI, -2.4 to -3.0). Rate reductions were larger among adults with diabetes than among adults without diabetes, leading to a reduction in the relative risk of complications associated with diabetes. When expressed as rates for the overall population, in which a change in prevalence also affects complication rates, there was a decline in rates of acute myocardial infarction and death from hyperglycemic crisis (2.7 and 0.1 fewer cases per 10,000, respectively) but not in rates of amputation, stroke, or end-stage renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of diabetes-related complications have declined substantially in the past two decades, but a large burden of disease persists because of the continued increase in the prevalence of diabetes. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Rapid Laboratory Identification of Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C as the Cause of an Outbreak - Liberia, 2017.

On April 25, 2017, a cluster of unexplained illness and deaths among persons who had attended a funeral during April 21-22 was reported in Sinoe County, Liberia (1). Using a broad initial case definition, 31 cases were identified, including 13 (42%) deaths. Twenty-seven cases were from Sinoe County (1), and two cases each were from Grand Bassa and Monsterrado counties, respectively. On May 5, 2017, initial multipathogen testing of specimens from four fatal cases using the Taqman Array Card (TAC) assay identified Neisseria meningitidis in all specimens. Subsequent testing using direct real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed N. meningitidis in 14 (58%) of 24 patients with available specimens and identified N. meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) in 13 (54%) patients. N. meningitidis was detected in specimens from 11 of the 13 patients who died; no specimens were available from the other two fatal cases. On May 16, 2017, the National Public Health Institute of Liberia and the Ministry of Health of Liberia issued a press release confirming serogroup C meningococcal disease as the cause of this outbreak in Liberia.

Associations between persistent organic pollutants, type 2 diabetes, diabetic nephropathy and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Relationships were examined between persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and incident type 2 diabetes, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality. METHODS: In a nested case-control study, 300 persons without diabetes had baseline examinations between 1969 and 1974; 149 developed diabetes (cases) and 151 remained non-diabetic (controls) during 8.0 and 23.1 years of follow-up, respectively. POPs were measured at baseline. ORs for diabetes were computed by logistic regression analysis. The cases were followed from diabetes onset to ESRD, death or 2013. HRs for ESRD and mortality were computed by cause-specific hazard models. Patterns of association were explored using principal components analysis. RESULTS: PCB151 increased the odds for incident diabetes, whereas hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was protective after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, sample storage characteristics, glucose and lipid levels. Associations between incident diabetes and polychlorinatedbiphenyl (PCB) or persistent pesticide (PST) components were mostly positive but non-significant. Among the cases, 29 developed ESRD and 48 died without ESRD. PCB28, PCB49 and PCB44 increased the risk of ESRD after adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Several PCBs and PSTs increased the risk of death without ESRD. The principal components analysis identified PCBs with low-chlorine load positively associated with ESRD and death without ESRD, and several PSTs associated with death without ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Most POPs were positively but not significantly associated with incident diabetes. PCB151 was significantly predictive and HCB was significantly protective for diabetes. Among participants with diabetes, low-chlorine PCBs increase the risk of ESRD and death without ESRD, whereas several PSTs predict death without ESRD.

Ebola and Its Control in Liberia, 2014-2015.

The severe epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Liberia started in March 2014. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared Liberia free of Ebola, 42 days after safe burial of the last known case-patient. However, another 6 cases occurred during June-July; on September 3, 2015, the country was again declared free of Ebola. Liberia had by then reported 10,672 cases of Ebola and 4,808 deaths, 37.0% and 42.6%, respectively, of the 28,103 cases and 11,290 deaths reported from the 3 countries that were heavily affected at that time. Essential components of the response included government leadership and sense of urgency, coordinated international assistance, sound technical work, flexibility guided by epidemiologic data, transparency and effective communication, and efforts by communities themselves. Priorities after the epidemic include surveillance in case of resurgence, restoration of health services, infection control in healthcare settings, and strengthening of basic public health systems.

Acute Kidney Injury Recovery Pattern and Subsequent Risk of CKD: An Analysis of Veterans Health Administration Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest an association between acute kidney injury (AKI) and long-term risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD), even following apparent renal recovery. Whether the pattern of renal recovery predicts kidney risk following AKI is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients in the Veterans Health Administration in 2011 hospitalized (> 24 hours) with at least 2 inpatient serum creatinine measurements, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 mL/min/1.73 m², and no diagnosis of end-stage renal disease or non-dialysis-dependent CKD: 17,049 (16.3%) with and 87,715 without AKI. PREDICTOR: Pattern of recovery to creatinine level within 0.3 mg/dL of baseline after AKI: within 2 days (fast), in 3 to 10 days (intermediate), and no recovery by 10 days (slow or unknown). OUTCOME: CKD stage 3 or higher, defined as 2 outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73m² at least 90 days apart or CKD diagnosis, dialysis therapy, or transplantation. MEASUREMENTS: Risk for CKD was modeled using modified Poisson regression and time to death-censored CKD was modeled using Cox proportional hazards regression, both stratified by AKI stage. RESULTS: Most patients' AKI episodes were stage 1 (91%) and 71% recovered within 2 days. At 1 year, 18.2% had developed CKD (AKI, 31.8%; non-AKI, 15.5%; P < 0.001). In stage 1, the adjusted relative risk ratios for CKD stage 3 or higher were 1.43 (95% CI, 1.39-1.48), 2.00 (95% CI, 1.88-2.12), and 2.65 (95% CI, 2.51-2.80) for fast, intermediate, and slow/unknown recovery. A similar pattern was observed in subgroup analyses incorporating albuminuria and sensitivity analysis of death-censored time to CKD. LIMITATIONS: Variable timing of follow-up and mostly male veteran cohort may limit generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who develop AKI during a hospitalization are at substantial risk for the development of CKD by 1 year following hospitalization and timing of AKI recovery is a strong predictor, even for the mildest forms of AKI.

Implementation of a National Semen Testing and Counseling Program for Male Ebola Survivors - Liberia, 2015-2016.

According to World Health Organization (WHO) data, the Ebola virus disease (Ebola) outbreak that began in West Africa in 2014 has resulted in 28,603 cases and 11,301 deaths (1). In March 2015, epidemiologic investigation and genetic sequencing in Liberia implicated sexual transmission from a male Ebola survivor, with Ebola virus detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) 199 days after symptom onset (2,3), far exceeding the 101 days reported from an earlier Ebola outbreak (4). In response, WHO released interim guidelines recommending that all male survivors, in addition to receiving condoms and sexual risk reduction counseling at discharge from an Ebola treatment unit (ETU), be offered semen testing for Ebola virus RNA by RT-PCR 3 months after disease onset, and every month thereafter until two consecutive semen specimens collected at least 1 week apart test negative for Ebola virus RNA (5). Male Ebola survivors should also receive counseling to promote safe sexual practices until their semen twice tests negative. When these recommendations were released, testing of semen was not widely available in Liberia. Challenges in establishing and operating the first nationwide semen testing and counseling program for male Ebola survivors included securing sufficient resources for the program, managing a public health semen testing program in the context of ongoing research studies that were also collecting and screening semen, identification of adequate numbers of trained counselors and appropriate health communication messages for the program, overcoming Ebola survivor-associated stigma, identification and recruitment of male Ebola survivors, and operation of mobile teams.

High Dietary Acid Load Predicts ESRD among Adults with CKD.

Small clinical trials have shown that a reduction in dietary acid load (DAL) improves kidney injury and slows kidney function decline; however, the relationship between DAL and risk of ESRD in a population-based cohort with CKD remains unexamined. We examined the association between DAL, quantified by net acid excretion (NAEes), and progression to ESRD in a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States. Among 1486 adults with CKD age≥20 years enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, DAL was determined by 24-h dietary recall questionnaire. The development of ESRD was ascertained over a median 14.2 years of follow-up through linkage with the Medicare ESRD Registry. We used the Fine-Gray competing risks method to estimate the association of high, medium, and low DAL with ESRD after adjusting for demographics, nutritional factors, clinical factors, and kidney function/damage markers and accounting for intervening mortality events. In total, 311 (20.9%) participants developed ESRD. Higher levels of DAL were associated with increased risk of ESRD; relative hazards (95% confidence interval) were 3.04 (1.58 to 5.86) for the highest tertile and 1.81 (0.89 to 3.68) for the middle tertile compared with the lowest tertile in the fully adjusted model. The risk of ESRD associated with DAL tertiles increased as eGFR decreased (P trend=0.001). Among participants with albuminuria, high DAL was strongly associated with ESRD risk (P trend=0.03). In conclusion, high DAL in persons with CKD is independently associated with increased risk of ESRD in a nationally representative population.

The future burden of CKD in the United States: a simulation model for the CDC CKD Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Awareness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by kidney damage or reduced glomerular filtration rate, remains low in the United States, and few estimates of its future burden exist. STUDY DESIGN: We used the CKD Health Policy Model to simulate the residual lifetime incidence of CKD and project the prevalence of CKD in 2020 and 2030. The simulation sample was based on nationally representative data from the 1999 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. SETTING & POPULATION: Current US population. MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMELINE: Simulation model following up individuals from current age through death or age 90 years. OUTCOMES: Residual lifetime incidence represents the projected percentage of persons who will develop new CKD during their lifetimes. Future prevalence is projected for 2020 and 2030. MEASUREMENTS: Development and progression of CKD are based on annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates that depend on age and risk factors. RESULTS: For US adults aged 30 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years or older with no CKD at baseline, the residual lifetime incidences of CKD are 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively. The prevalence of CKD in adults 30 years or older is projected to increase from 13.2% currently to 14.4% in 2020 and 16.7% in 2030. LIMITATIONS: Due to limited data, our simulation model estimates are based on assumptions about annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates. CONCLUSIONS: For an individual, lifetime risk of CKD is high, with more than half the US adults aged 30 to 64 years likely to develop CKD. Knowing the lifetime incidence of CKD may raise individuals' awareness and encourage them to take steps to prevent CKD. From a national burden perspective, we estimate that the population prevalence of CKD will increase in coming decades, suggesting that development of interventions to slow CKD onset and progression should be considered.

Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus - Liberia, 2015.

On March 20, 2015, 30 days after the most recent confirmed Ebola Virus Disease (Ebola) patient in Liberia was isolated, Ebola was laboratory confirmed in a woman in Monrovia. The investigation identified only one epidemiologic link to Ebola: unprotected vaginal intercourse with a survivor. Published reports from previous outbreaks have demonstrated Ebola survivors can continue to harbor virus in immunologically privileged sites for a period of time after convalescence. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen as long as 82 days after symptom onset and viral RNA has been detected in semen up to 101 days after symptom onset. One instance of possible sexual transmission of Ebola has been reported, although the accompanying evidence was inconclusive. In addition, possible sexual transmission of Marburg virus, a filovirus related to Ebola, was documented in 1968. This report describes the investigation by the Government of Liberia and international response partners of the source of Liberia's latest Ebola case and discusses the public health implications of possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus. Based on information gathered in this investigation, CDC now recommends that contact with semen from male Ebola survivors be avoided until more information regarding the duration and infectiousness of viral shedding in body fluids is known. If male survivors have sex (oral, vaginal, or anal), a condom should be used correctly and consistently every time.