Predicting how defaunation-induced changes in seed predation and dispersal will affect tropical tree populations.

The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.

Predicciones de cómo los cambios inducidos en la dispersión y depredación de semillas por la pérdida de fauna afectará a las poblaciones de árboles tropicales Resumen La pérdida de animales grandes debido a la caza excesiva y la pérdida del hábitat afecta potencialmente a las poblaciones de árboles tropicales y al ciclo del carbono. Se considera que los árboles que dependen de dispersores de semillas de talla grande son los más afectados negativamente por la pérdida de fauna. La defaunación también puede incrementar o disminuir la depredación de semillas, además de su dispersión. Todavía no está claro cómo afectan al final a las dinámicas poblaciones de los árboles los diferentes efectos de la pérdida de fauna en las etapas temprana de vida. Revisamos la literatura sobre cómo la pérdida de animales tropicales afecta las diferentes etapas de vida de las plantas y realizamos un metaanálisis sobre cómo la pérdida de fauna afecta a la depredación de semillas. Usamos esta información para definir los parámetros de los modelos que alteraron los modelos de proyección de matriz a partir de un conjunto de especies de árboles y así simular los cambios causados por la pérdida de fauna en la dispersión y depredación de semillas. Analizamos cómo la aplicación de estos efectos de pérdida de fauna afectó las tasas de crecimiento poblacional. En promedio, los efectos de la pérdida de fauna a nivel poblacional fueron no significativas, lo que sugiere que la pérdida de fauna puede no ser la causa de las reducciones masivas que se han pronosticado en el almacenamiento de carbono forestal. Contrario a las hipótesis previas, no detectamos ningún efecto del tamaño de las semillas sobre los cambios en las tasas de depredación. El cambio en la depredación de semillas no difirió significativamente entre los experimentos de encierro y los estudios de observación, aunque los resultados de los últimos fueron mucho más variables. Mientras que la pérdida de fauna seguramente afecta a ciertos taxones de árboles, actualmente no se pueden pronosticar, con base en los datos disponibles, las especies que se benefician o perjudican por esta pérdida y los cambios netos en el almacenamiento de carbono forestal. Se necesita una investigación más avanzada sobre cómo varían los factores, como la depredación de semillas, entre especies de árboles y escenarios de pérdida de fauna para entender los cambios en cascada en la composición y diversidad de las especies.

Food availability alters community co-occurrence patterns at fine spatiotemporal scales in a tropical masting system.

Patterns of co-occurrence among species can help reveal the structure and assembly of ecological communities. However, studies have been limited by measuring co-occurrence in either space or time but not both simultaneously. This is especially problematic in systems such as masting forests where resources are highly variable, meaning that spatial use and co-occurrence patterns can change on fine spatiotemporal scales. We develop an analytical framework for assessing species co-occurrence at fine spatial and temporal scales simultaneously and apply these models to a camera trapping dataset from Borneo. We sought to determine how substantial variation in food availability across space and time affects co-occurrence among terrestrial vertebrates. We detect many significant, mostly positive, co-occurrence patterns among species, but almost entirely in unlogged forest and during dipterocarp mast years. The most strongly co-occurring pair of species, bearded pig (Sus barbatus) and sambar (Rusa unicolor), only positively co-occur in areas and years when fruit is locally abundant. Species occurrences in logged forest and non-mast years are mostly random with respect to other species. This suggests that frugivore-granivore species positively co-occur when resources are plentiful (i.e., large trees are present and fruiting), likely because they use the same resources; these patterns disappear when food availability is lower. Our approach demonstrates the utility of measuring co-occurrence in space and time together and highlights the importance of resource abundance for driving the co-occurrence structure of communities. Furthermore, our method could be broadly applied to other systems to assess fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns across a range of taxa.

Fungi and insects compensate for lost vertebrate seed predation in an experimentally defaunated tropical forest.

Overhunting reduces important plant-animal interactions such as vertebrate seed dispersal and seed predation, thereby altering plant regeneration and even above-ground biomass. It remains unclear, however, if non-hunted species can compensate for lost vertebrates in defaunated ecosystems. We use a nested exclusion experiment to isolate the effects of different seed enemies in a Bornean rainforest. In four of five tree species, vertebrates kill many seeds (13-66%). Nonetheless, when large mammals are excluded, seed mortality from insects and fungi fully compensates for the lost vertebrate predation, such that defaunation has no effect on seedling establishment. The switch from seed predation by generalist vertebrates to specialist insects and fungi in defaunated systems may alter Janzen-Connell effects and density-dependence in plants. Previous work using simulation models to explore how lost seed dispersal will affect tree species composition and carbon storage may require reevaluation in the context of functional redundancy within complex species interactions networks.