Speciation across the Earth driven by global cooling in terrestrial orchids.

Although climate change has been implicated as a major catalyst of diversification, its effects are thought to be inconsistent and much less pervasive than localized climate or the accumulation of species with time. Focused analyses of highly speciose clades are needed in order to disentangle the consequences of climate change, geography, and time. Here, we show that global cooling shapes the biodiversity of terrestrial orchids. Using a phylogeny of 1,475 species of Orchidoideae, the largest terrestrial orchid subfamily, we find that speciation rate is dependent on historic global cooling, not time, tropical distributions, elevation, variation in chromosome number, or other types of historic climate change. Relative to the gradual accumulation of species with time, models specifying speciation driven by historic global cooling are over 700 times more likely. Evidence ratios estimated for 212 other plant and animal groups reveal that terrestrial orchids represent one of the best-supported cases of temperature-spurred speciation yet reported. Employing >2.5 million georeferenced records, we find that global cooling drove contemporaneous diversification in each of the seven major orchid bioregions of the Earth. With current emphasis on understanding and predicting the immediate impacts of global warming, our study provides a clear case study of the long-term impacts of global climate change on biodiversity.

Craniodental and Postcranial Characters of Non-Avian Dinosauria Often Imply Different Trees.

Despite the increasing importance of molecular sequence data, morphology still makes an important contribution to resolving the phylogeny of many groups, and is the only source of data for most fossils. Most systematists sample morphological characters as broadly as possible on the principle of total evidence. However, it is not uncommon for sampling to be focused on particular aspects of anatomy, either because characters therein are believed to be more informative, or because preservation biases restrict what is available. Empirically, the optimal trees from partitions of morphological data sets often represent significantly different hypotheses of relationships. Previous work on hard-part versus soft-part characters across animal phyla revealed significant differences in about a half of sampled studies. Similarly, studies of the craniodental versus postcranial characters of vertebrates revealed significantly different trees in about one-third of cases, with the highest rates observed in non-avian dinosaurs. We test whether this is a generality here with a much larger sample of 81 published data matrices across all major dinosaur groups. Using the incongruence length difference test and two variants of the incongruence relationship difference test, we found significant incongruence in about 50% of cases. Incongruence is not uniformly distributed across major dinosaur clades, being highest (63%) in Theropoda and lowest (25%) in Thyreophora. As in previous studies, our partition tests show some sensitivity to matrix dimensions and the amount and distribution of missing entries. Levels of homoplasy and retained synapomorphy are similar between partitions, such that incongruence must partly reflect differences in patterns of homoplasy between partitions, which may itself be a function of modularity and mosaic evolution. Finally, we implement new tests to determine which partition yields trees most similar to those from the entire matrix. Despite no bias across dinosaurs overall, there are striking differences between major groups. The craniodental characters of Ornithischia and the postcranial characters of Saurischia yield trees most similar to the "total evidence" trees derived from the entire matrix. Trees from these same character partitions also tend to be most stratigraphically congruent: a mutual consilience suggesting that those partitions yield more accurate trees. [Dinosauria; homoplasy; partition homogeneity.].

Differences between hard and soft phylogenetic data.

When building the tree of life, variability of phylogenetic signal is often accounted for by partitioning gene sequences and testing for differences. The same considerations, however, are rarely applied to morphological data, potentially undermining its use in evolutionary contexts. Here, we apply partition heterogeneity tests to 59 animal datasets to demonstrate that significant differences exist between the phylogenetic signal conveyed by 'hard' and 'soft' characters (bones, teeth and shells versus myology, integument etc). Furthermore, the morphological partitions differ significantly in their consistency relative to independent molecular trees. The observed morphological differences correspond with missing data biases, and as such their existence presents a problem not only for phylogeny reconstruction, but also for interpretations of fossil data. Evolutionary inferences drawn from clades in which hard, readily fossilizable characters are relatively less consistent and different from other morphology (mammals, bivalves) may be less secure. More secure inferences might be drawn from the fossil record of clades that exhibit fewer differences, or exhibit more consistent hard characters (fishes, birds). In all cases, it will be necessary to consider the impact of missing data on empirical data, and the differences that exist between morphological modules.

Measuring Stratigraphic Congruence Across Trees, Higher Taxa, and Time.

The congruence between the order of cladistic branching and the first appearance dates of fossil lineages can be quantified using a variety of indices. Good matching is a prerequisite for the accurate time calibration of trees, while the distribution of congruence indices across large samples of cladograms has underpinned claims about temporal and taxonomic patterns of completeness in the fossil record. The most widely used stratigraphic congruence indices are the stratigraphic consistency index (SCI), the modified Manhattan stratigraphic measure (MSM*), and the gap excess ratio (GER) (plus its derivatives; the topological GER and the modified GER). Many factors are believed to variously bias these indices, with several empirical and simulation studies addressing some subset of the putative interactions. This study combines both approaches to quantify the effects (on all five indices) of eight variables reasoned to constrain the distribution of possible values (the number of taxa, tree balance, tree resolution, range of first occurrence (FO) dates, center of gravity of FO dates, the variability of FO dates, percentage of extant taxa, and percentage of taxa with no fossil record). Our empirical data set comprised 647 published animal and plant cladograms spanning the entire Phanerozoic, and for these data we also modeled the effects of mean age of FOs (as a proxy for clade age), the taxonomic rank of the clade, and the higher taxonomic group to which it belonged. The center of gravity of FO dates had not been investigated hitherto, and this was found to correlate most strongly with some measures of stratigraphic congruence in our empirical study (top-heavy clades had better congruence). The modified GER was the index least susceptible to bias. We found significant differences across higher taxa for all indices; arthropods had lower congruence and tetrapods higher congruence. Stratigraphic congruence-however measured-also varied throughout the Phanerozoic, reflecting the taxonomic composition of our sample. Notably, periods containing a high proportion of arthropods had poorer congruence overall than those with higher proportions of tetrapods. [Fossil calibration; gap excess ratio; manhattan stratigraphic metric; molecular clocks; stratigraphic congruence.].

Why should we investigate the morphological disparity of plant clades?

BACKGROUND: Disparity refers to the morphological variation in a sample of taxa, and is distinct from diversity or taxonomic richness. Diversity and disparity are fundamentally decoupled; many groups attain high levels of disparity early in their evolution, while diversity is still comparatively low. Diversity may subsequently increase even in the face of static or declining disparity by increasingly fine sub-division of morphological 'design' space (morphospace). Many animal clades reached high levels of disparity early in their evolution, but there have been few comparable studies of plant clades, despite their profound ecological and evolutionary importance. This study offers a prospective and some preliminary macroevolutionary analyses. METHODS: Classical morphometric methods are most suitable when there is reasonable conservation of form, but lose traction where morphological differences become greater (e.g. in comparisons across higher taxa). Discrete character matrices offer one means to compare a greater diversity of forms. This study explores morphospaces derived from eight discrete data sets for major plant clades, and discusses their macroevolutionary implications. KEY RESULTS: Most of the plant clades in this study show initial, high levels of disparity that approach or attain the maximum levels reached subsequently. These plant clades are characterized by an initial phase of evolution during which most regions of their empirical morphospaces are colonized. Angiosperms, palms, pines and ferns show remarkably little variation in disparity through time. Conifers furnish the most marked exception, appearing at relatively low disparity in the latest Carboniferous, before expanding incrementally with the radiation of successive, tightly clustered constituent sub-clades. CONCLUSIONS: Many cladistic data sets can be repurposed for investigating the morphological disparity of plant clades through time, and offer insights that are complementary to more focused morphometric studies. The unique structural and ecological features of plants make them ideally suited to investigating intrinsic and extrinsic constraints on disparity.

Pancrustacean phylogeny in the light of new phylogenomic data: support for Remipedia as the possible sister group of Hexapoda.

Remipedes are a small and enigmatic group of crustaceans, first described only 30 years ago. Analyses of both morphological and molecular data have recently suggested a close relationship between Remipedia and Hexapoda. If true, the remipedes occupy an important position in pancrustacean evolution and may be pivotal for understanding the evolutionary history of crustaceans and hexapods. However, it is important to test this hypothesis using new data and new types of analytical approaches. Here, we assembled a phylogenomic data set of 131 taxa, incorporating newly generated 454 expressed sequence tag (EST) data from six species of crustaceans, representing five lineages (Remipedia, Laevicaudata, Spinicaudata, Ostracoda, and Malacostraca). This data set includes all crustacean species for which EST data are available (46 species), and our largest alignment encompasses 866,479 amino acid positions and 1,886 genes. A series of phylogenomic analyses was performed to evaluate pancrustacean relationships. We significantly improved the quality of our data for predicting putative orthologous genes and for generating data subsets by matrix reduction procedures, thereby improving the signal to noise ratio in the data. Eight different data sets were constructed, representing various combinations of orthologous genes, data subsets, and taxa. Our results demonstrate that the different ways to compile an initial data set of core orthologs and the selection of data subsets by matrix reduction can have marked effects on the reconstructed phylogenetic trees. Nonetheless, all eight data sets strongly support Pancrustacea with Remipedia as the sister group to Hexapoda. This is the first time that a sister group relationship of Remipedia and Hexapoda has been inferred using a comprehensive phylogenomic data set that is based on EST data. We also show that selecting data subsets with increased overall signal can help to identify and prevent artifacts in phylogenetic analyses.

Bird clades with less complex appendicular skeletons tend to have higher species richness.

Species richness is strikingly uneven across taxonomic groups at all hierarchical levels, but the reasons for this heterogeneity are poorly understood. It is well established that morphological diversity (disparity) is decoupled from taxonomic diversity, both between clades and across geological time. Morphological complexity has been much less studied, but there is theory linking complexity with differential diversity across groups. Here we devise an index of complexity from the differentiation of the fore and hind limb pairs for a sample of 983 species of extant birds. We test the null hypothesis that this index of morphological complexity is uncorrelated with clade diversity, revealing a significant and negative correlation between the species richness of clades and the mean morphological complexity of those clades. Further, we find that more complex clades tend to occupy a smaller number of dietary and habitat niches, and that this proxy for greater ecological specialisation correlates with lower species richness. Greater morphological complexity in the appendicular skeleton therefore appears to hinder the generation and maintenance of species diversity. This may result from entrenchment into morphologies and ecologies that are less capable of yielding further diversity.

Molecular phylogenies map to biogeography better than morphological ones.

Phylogenetic relationships are inferred principally from two classes of data: morphological and molecular. Currently, most phylogenies of extant taxa are inferred from molecules and when morphological and molecular trees conflict the latter are often preferred. Although supported by simulations, the superiority of molecular trees has rarely been assessed empirically. Here we test phylogenetic accuracy using two independent data sources: biogeographic distributions and fossil first occurrences. For 48 pairs of morphological and molecular trees we show that, on average, molecular trees provide a better fit to biogeographic data than their morphological counterparts and that biogeographic congruence increases over research time. We find no significant differences in stratigraphic congruence between morphological and molecular trees. These results have implications for understanding the distribution of homoplasy in morphological data sets, the utility of morphology as a test of molecular hypotheses and the implications of analysing fossil groups for which molecular data are unavailable.

Ecological Transitions and the Shape of the Decapod Tree of Life.

Understanding the processes that shaped the distribution of species richness across the Tree of Life is a central macroevolutionary research agenda. Major ecological innovations, including transitions between habitats, may help to explain the striking asymmetries of diversity that are often observed between sister clades. Here, we test the impact of such transitions on speciation rates across decapod crustaceans, modeling diversification dynamics within a phylogenetic framework. Our results show that, while terrestrial lineages have higher speciation rates than either marine or freshwater lineages, there is no difference between mean speciation rates in marine and freshwater lineages across Decapoda. Partitioning our data by infraorder reveals that those clades with habitat heterogeneity have higher speciation rates in freshwater and terrestrial lineages, with freshwater rates up to 1.5 times faster than marine rates, and terrestrial rates approximately four times faster. This averaging out of marine and freshwater speciation rates results from the varying contributions of different clades to average speciation rates. However, with the exception of Caridea, we find no evidence for any causal relationship between habitat and speciation rate. Our results demonstrate that while statistical generalizations about ecological traits and evolutionary rates are valuable, there are many exceptions. Hence, while freshwater and terrestrial lineages typically speciate faster than their marine relatives, there are many atypically slow freshwater lineages and fast marine lineages across Decapoda. Future work on diversification patterns will benefit from the inclusion of fossil data, as well as additional ecological factors.

Increasing morphological complexity in multiple parallel lineages of the Crustacea.

The prospect of finding macroevolutionary trends and rules in the history of life is tremendously appealing, but very few pervasive trends have been found. Here, we demonstrate a parallel increase in the morphological complexity of most of the deep lineages within a major clade. We focus on the Crustacea, measuring the morphological differentiation of limbs. First, we show a clear trend of increasing complexity among 66 free-living, ordinal-level taxa from the Phanerozoic fossil record. We next demonstrate that this trend is pervasive, occurring in 10 or 11 of 12 matched-pair comparisons (across five morphological diversity indices) between extinct Paleozoic and related Recent taxa. This clearly differentiates the pattern from the effects of lineage sorting. Furthermore, newly appearing taxa tend to have had more types of limbs and a higher degree of limb differentiation than the contemporaneous average, whereas those going extinct showed higher-than-average limb redundancy. Patterns of contemporary species diversity partially reflect the paleontological trend. These results provide a rare demonstration of a large-scale and probably driven trend occurring across multiple independent lineages and influencing both the form and number of species through deep time and in the present day.

Evolution and dispersal of snakes across the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction.

Mass extinctions have repeatedly shaped global biodiversity. The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction caused the demise of numerous vertebrate groups, and its aftermath saw the rapid diversification of surviving mammals, birds, frogs, and teleost fishes. However, the effects of the K-Pg extinction on the evolution of snakes-a major clade of predators comprising over 3,700 living species-remains poorly understood. Here, we combine an extensive molecular dataset with phylogenetically and stratigraphically constrained fossil calibrations to infer an evolutionary timescale for Serpentes. We reveal a potential diversification among crown snakes associated with the K-Pg mass extinction, led by the successful colonisation of Asia by the major extant clade Afrophidia. Vertebral morphometrics suggest increasing morphological specialisation among marine snakes through the Paleogene. The dispersal patterns of snakes following the K-Pg underscore the importance of this mass extinction event in shaping Earth's extant vertebrate faunas.

The complex effects of mass extinctions on morphological disparity.

Studies of biodiversity through deep time have been a staple for biologists and paleontologists for over 60 years. Investigations of species richness (diversity) revealed that at least five mass extinctions punctuated the last half billion years, each seeing the rapid demise of a large proportion of contemporary taxa. In contrast to diversity, the response of morphological diversity (disparity) to mass extinctions is unclear. Generally, diversity and disparity are decoupled, such that diversity may decline as morphological disparity increases, and vice versa. Here, we develop simulations to model disparity changes across mass extinctions using continuous traits and birth-death trees. We find no simple null for disparity change following a mass extinction but do observe general patterns. The range of trait values decreases following either random or trait-selective mass extinctions, whereas variance and the density of morphospace occupation only decline following trait-selective events. General trends may differentiate random and trait-selective mass extinctions, but methods struggle to identify trait selectivity. Long-term effects of mass extinction trait selectivity change support for phylogenetic comparative methods away from the simulated Brownian motion toward Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Early Burst models. We find that morphological change over mass extinction is best studied by quantifying multiple aspects of morphospace occupation.

Eumalacostracan phylogeny and total evidence: limitations of the usual suspects.

BACKGROUND: The phylogeny of Eumalacostraca (Crustacea) remains elusive, despite over a century of interest. Recent morphological and molecular phylogenies appear highly incongruent, but this has not been assessed quantitatively. Moreover, 18S rRNA trees show striking branch length differences between species, accompanied by a conspicuous clustering of taxa with similar branch lengths. Surprisingly, previous research found no rate heterogeneity. Hitherto, no phylogenetic analysis of all major eumalacostracan taxa (orders) has either combined evidence from multiple loci, or combined molecular and morphological evidence. RESULTS: We combined evidence from four nuclear ribosomal and mitochondrial loci (18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, 16S rRNA, and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I) with a newly synthesized morphological dataset. We tested the homogeneity of data partitions, both in terms of character congruence and the topological congruence of inferred trees. We also performed Bayesian and parsimony analyses on separate and combined partitions, and tested the contribution of each partition. We tested for potential long-branch attraction (LBA) using taxon deletion experiments, and with relative rate tests. Additionally we searched for molecular polytomies (spurious clades). Lastly, we investigated the phylogenetic stability of taxa, and assessed their impact on inferred relationships over the whole tree. We detected significant conflict between data partitions, especially between morphology and molecules. We found significant rate heterogeneity between species for both the 18S rRNA and combined datasets, introducing the possibility of LBA. As a test case, we showed that LBA probably affected the position of Spelaeogriphacea in the combined molecular evidence analysis. We also demonstrated that several clades, including the previously reported and surprising clade of Amphipoda plus Spelaeogriphacea, are 'supported' by zero length branches. Furthermore we showed that different sets of taxa have the greatest impact upon the relationships within molecular versus morphological trees. CONCLUSION: Rate heterogeneity and conflict between data partitions mean that existing molecular and morphological evidence is unable to resolve a well-supported eumalacostracan phylogeny. We believe that it will be necessary to look beyond the most commonly utilized sources of data (nuclear ribosomal and mitochondrial sequences) to obtain a robust tree in the future.

The modified gap excess ratio (GER*) and the stratigraphic congruence of dinosaur phylogenies.

Palaeontologists routinely map their cladograms onto what is known of the fossil record. Where sister taxa first appear as fossils at different times, a ghost range is inferred to bridge the gap between these dates. Some measure of the total extent of ghost ranges across the tree underlies several indices of cladistic/stratigraphic congruence. We investigate this congruence for 19 independent, published cladograms of major dinosaur groups and report exceptional agreement between the phylogenetic and stratigraphic patterns, evidenced by sums of ghost ranges near the theoretical minima. This implies that both phylogenetic and stratigraphic data reflect faithfully the evolutionary history of dinosaurs, at least for the taxa included in this study. We formally propose modifications to an existing index of congruence (the gap excess ratio; GER), designed to remove a bias in the range of values possible with trees of different shapes. We also propose a more informative index of congruence--GER*--that takes account of the underlying distribution of sums of ghost ranges possible when permuting stratigraphic range data across the tree. Finally, we incorporate data on the range of possible first occurrence dates into our estimates of congruence, extending a procedure originally implemented with the modified Manhattan stratigraphic measure and GER to our new indices. Most dinosaur data sets maintain extremely high congruence despite such modifications.

Freshwater transitions and symbioses shaped the evolution and extant diversity of caridean shrimps.

Understanding the processes that shaped the strikingly irregular distribution of species richness across the Tree of Life is a major research agenda. Changes in ecology may go some way to explain the often strongly asymmetrical fates of sister clades, and we test this in the caridean shrimps. First appearing in the Lower Jurassic, there are now ~3500 species worldwide. Carideans experienced several independent transitions to freshwater from marine habitats, while many of the marine species have also evolved a symbiotic lifestyle. Here we use diversification rate analyses to test whether these ecological traits promote or inhibit diversity within a phylogenetic framework. We demonstrate that speciation rates are more than twice as high in freshwater clades, whilst symbiotic ecologies are associated with lower speciation rates. These lower rates amongst symbiotic species are of concern given that symbioses often occur in some of the most diverse, delicately balanced and threatened marine ecosystems.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 promoted speciation in mosquitoes (Diptera, Culicidae).

Mosquitoes are of great medical significance as vectors of deadly diseases. Despite this, little is known about their evolutionary history or how their present day diversity has been shaped. Within a phylogenetic framework, here we show a strong correlation between climate change and mosquito speciation rates: the first time to our knowledge such an effect has been demonstrated for insects. Information theory reveals that although climate change is correlated with mosquito evolution there are other important factors at play. We identify one such driver to be the rise of mammals, which are predominant hosts of Culicidae. Regardless of the precise mechanism, we demonstrate a strong historical association. This finding, taken in combination with projected rises in atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic activity, has important implications for culicid vector distributions and abundance, and consequently for human health.

Sampling diverse characters improves phylogenies: Craniodental and postcranial characters of vertebrates often imply different trees.

Morphological cladograms of vertebrates are often inferred from greater numbers of characters describing the skull and teeth than from postcranial characters. This is either because the skull is believed to yield characters with a stronger phylogenetic signal (i.e., contain less homoplasy), because morphological variation therein is more readily atomized, or because craniodental material is more widely available (particularly in the palaeontological case). An analysis of 85 vertebrate datasets published between 2000 and 2013 confirms that craniodental characters are significantly more numerous than postcranial characters, but finds no evidence that levels of homoplasy differ in the two partitions. However, a new partition test, based on tree-to-tree distances (as measured by the Robinson Foulds metric) rather than tree length, reveals that relationships inferred from the partitions are significantly different about one time in three, much more often than expected. Such differences may reflect divergent selective pressures in different body regions, resulting in different localized patterns of homoplasy. Most systematists attempt to sample characters broadly across body regions, but this is not always possible. We conclude that trees inferred largely from either craniodental or postcranial characters in isolation may differ significantly from those that would result from a more holistic approach. We urge the latter.

Global cooling as a driver of diversification in a major marine clade.

Climate is a strong driver of global diversity and will become increasingly important as human influences drive temperature changes at unprecedented rates. Here we investigate diversification and speciation trends within a diverse group of aquatic crustaceans, the Anomura. We use a phylogenetic framework to demonstrate that speciation rate is correlated with global cooling across the entire tree, in contrast to previous studies. Additionally, we find that marine clades continue to show evidence of increased speciation rates with cooler global temperatures, while the single freshwater clade shows the opposite trend with speciation rates positively correlated to global warming. Our findings suggest that both global cooling and warming lead to diversification and that habitat plays a role in the responses of species to climate change. These results have important implications for our understanding of how extant biota respond to ongoing climate change and are of particular importance for conservation planning of marine ecosystems.

Geographic range did not confer resilience to extinction in terrestrial vertebrates at the end-Triassic crisis.

Rates of extinction vary greatly through geological time, with losses particularly concentrated in mass extinctions. Species duration at other times varies greatly, but the reasons for this are unclear. Geographical range correlates with lineage duration amongst marine invertebrates, but it is less clear how far this generality extends to other groups in other habitats. It is also unclear whether a wide geographical distribution makes groups more likely to survive mass extinctions. Here we test for extinction selectivity amongst terrestrial vertebrates across the end-Triassic event. We demonstrate that terrestrial vertebrate clades with larger geographical ranges were more resilient to extinction than those with smaller ranges throughout the Triassic and Jurassic. However, this relationship weakened with increasing proximity to the end-Triassic mass extinction, breaking down altogether across the event itself. We demonstrate that these findings are not a function of sampling biases; a perennial issue in studies of this kind.