Can juvenile supply predict future abundance of large-bodied reef fishes?

The extent to which juvenile abundance can predict future populations of lethrinids at Ningaloo Reef was assessed using size frequency data collected over 13 consecutive years. Annual abundance of juvenile lethrinids (<5 cm TL) was highest in northern Ningaloo during La Niña years, when seawater is warmer and oceanic currents stronger. Juvenile lethrinid abundance explained 35% of the variance in 1-2 year-old Lethrinus nebulosus abundance the following year, a steeper relationship in the north suggesting greater survival of juveniles. Juvenile lethrinid abundance was also positively correlated to abundance of 1-2 year-old L. atkinsoni in the southern region of Ningaloo. Abundance of juvenile lethrinids were however poor predictors of L. nebulosus and L. atkinsoni older than 2 years of age. Post settlement processes likely weaken the link between juvenile supply and abundance of lethrinids >2 years old making it difficult to accurately quantify the overall size of future lethrinid populations.

Directed conservation of the world's reef sharks and rays.

Many shark populations are in decline around the world, with severe ecological and economic consequences. Fisheries management and marine protected areas (MPAs) have both been heralded as solutions. However, the effectiveness of MPAs alone is questionable, particularly for globally threatened sharks and rays ('elasmobranchs'), with little known about how fisheries management and MPAs interact to conserve these species. Here we use a dedicated global survey of coral reef elasmobranchs to assess 66 fully protected areas embedded within a range of fisheries management regimes across 36 countries. We show that conservation benefits were primarily for reef-associated sharks, which were twice as abundant in fully protected areas compared with areas open to fishing. Conservation benefits were greatest in large protected areas that incorporate distinct reefs. However, the same benefits were not evident for rays or wide-ranging sharks that are both economically and ecologically important while also threatened with extinction. We show that conservation benefits from fully protected areas are close to doubled when embedded within areas of effective fisheries management, highlighting the importance of a mixed management approach of both effective fisheries management and well-designed fully protected areas to conserve tropical elasmobranch assemblages globally.