Instrument and Supply Variability: An Opportunity to Reduce the Carbon Footprint of the Operating Room.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing costs and carbon footprints are important, parallel priorities for the US health-care system. Within surgery, reducing the number of instruments that are sterilized and disposable supplies that are used for each operation may help achieve both goals. We wanted to measure the existing variability in surgical instrument and supply choices and assess whether standardization could have a meaningful cost and environmental impact. METHODS: We analyzed surgeon preference cards for common general surgery operations at our hospital to measure the number of sterilizable instrument trays and supplies used by each surgeon for each operation. From this data, we calculated supply costs, carbon footprint, and median operative time and studied the variability in each of these metrics. RESULTS: Among the ten operations studied, variability in sterilizable instrument trays requested on surgeon preference cards ranged from one to eight. Variability in disposable supplies requested ranged from 17 to 45. Variability in open supply costs ranged from $104 to $4184. Variability in carbon footprint ranged from 17 to 708 kg CO2e. If the highest-cost surgeon for each operation switched their preference card to that of the median-cost surgeon, $245,343 in open supply costs and 41,708 kg CO2e could be saved. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant variability in the instrument and supply choices of surgeons performing common general surgery operations. Standardizing this variability may lead to meaningful cost savings and carbon footprint reduction, especially if scaled across the entire health system.

Correlation of Pediatric Surgical Infrastructure With Clinical and Economic Outcomes: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: A significant burden of unmet pediatric surgical disease exists in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to assess the associations between the installation of a pediatric operating room (OR) and clinical and economic outcomes for families with children in Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of children who underwent elective surgery in a tertiary-level Ethiopian public hospital, comparing patient outcomes before and after OR installation in August 2019. Clinical data were collected via chart review, and an inpatient economic survey was administered to patient caregivers. Interrupted time series analysis investigated trends in surgical volume over time. The relative economic benefit was determined by comparing the patients' household income to the monetary health benefit gained using the value of statistical life method. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and ninety-six patients were included from August 2018 to July 2022. Surgery averted 20,541 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cumulatively or 17 DALYs per patient. Monthly case volume and DALYs averted significantly increased postinstallation. The median annual household income of the economic survey responders (n = 339) was $1337 (IQR 669-2592). 27.7% (n = 94/339) lived in extreme poverty, and 41.3% (n = 140/339) experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure. Net monetary health benefit was $29.3 million or $26,646 per patient. The ratio of net monetary health benefit to household annual income was 60:1. CONCLUSIONS: Installing a pediatric OR in a public Ethiopian hospital ensures increased access to surgery for those most impoverished in Ethiopia and improves equitable access to surgical care. Greater investment in expanding pediatric surgical infrastructure can help address global inequities in child health.

Pediatric Emergency Surgery Course in Uganda: Long-Term Follow-Up and Insights From Further Dissemination.

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 170 pediatric surgeons are needed for the 24 million children in Uganda. There are only seven. Consequently, general surgeons manage many pediatric surgical conditions. In response, stakeholders created the Pediatric Emergency Surgery Course (PESC) for rural providers, given three times in 2018-2019. We sought to understand the course's long-term impact, current pediatric surgery needs, and determine measures for improvement. METHODS: In October 2021, we distributed the same test given in 2018-2019. Student's t-test was used to compare former participants' scores to previous scores. The course was delivered again in May 2022 to new participants. We performed a quantitative needs assessment and also conducted a focus group with these participants. Finally, we interviewed Surgeon in Chiefs at previous sites. RESULTS: Twenty three of the prior 45 course participants re-took the PESC course assessment. Alumni scored on average 71.9% ± 18% correct. This was higher from prior precourse test scores of 55.4% ± 22.4%, and almost identical to the 2018-2019 postcourse scores 71.9% ± 14%. Fifteen course participants completed the needs assessment. Participants had low confidence managing pediatric surgical disease (median Likert scale ≤ 3.0), 12 of 15 participants endorsed lack of equipment, and eight of 15 desired more educational resources. Qualitative feedback was positive: participants valued the pragmatic lessons and networking with in-country specialists. Further training was suggested, and Chiefs noted the need for more trained staff like anesthesiologists. CONCLUSIONS: Participants favorably reviewed PESC and retained knowledge over three years later. Given participants' interest in more training, further investment in locally derived educational efforts must be prioritized.

Essential surgery delivery in the Northern Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

INTRODUCTION: Surgical services are an essential part of a functional healthcare system, but the Lancet Commission of Global Surgery (LCoGS) indicators of surgical capacity such as perioperative workforce and surgical volume are unknown in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We aimed to determine the surgical capacity and its associated factors within the DRC. METHODS: Hospitals were assessed in the North Kivu province of the DRC. Hospital characteristics and surgical rates were determined using the WHO-PGSSC hospital assessment tool and operating room (OR) registries. The primary outcome of interest was the number of Bellwether operations (i.e. Caesarean sections, laparotomies, and external fixation for bone fractures) per 100,000 people. Univariate and multiple linear regressions were performed. Primary predictors were the number of trained surgeons, anaesthesiologists, and obstetricians (SAOs) and the number of perioperative providers (including clinical officers and nurse anaesthetists) per 100,000 people. RESULTS: Twenty-eight hospitals in North Kivu were assessed over one year in 2021; 24 (86%) were first-level referral health centres while 4 (14%) were second-level referral hospitals. In total, 11,176 Bellwether procedures were performed in the region in one year. Rates per 100,000 people were 1,461 Bellwether surgical interventions, 1.05 SAOs, and 13.1 perioperative providers. In univariate linear regression analysis, each additional SAO added 239 additional cases annually (p = 0.023), while each additional perioperative provider added 110 cases annually (p < 0.001). In our multiple regression analysis adjusting for other hospital services, the association between workforce and Bellwether surgeries was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: The surgical workforce in DRC did not meet the LCoGS benchmark of 20 SAOs per 100,000 people but was not an independent predictor of surgical capacity. Major investment is needed to simultaneously bolster healthcare facilities and increase surgical workforce training.

Efforts to improve outcomes among neonates with complex intestinal atresia: a single-center low-income country experience.

PURPOSE: Intestinal obstruction caused by intestinal atresia is a surgical emergency in newborns. Outcomes for the jejunal ileal atresia (JIA), the most common subtype of atresia in low-income countries (LIC), are poor. We sought to assess the impact of utilizing the Bishop-Koop (BK) approach to JIA in improving outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed on children with complex JIA (Type 2-4) treated at our national referral hospital from 1/2018 to 12/2022. BK was regularly used starting 1/1/2021, and outcomes between 1/2021 and 12/2022 were compared to those between 1/2018 and 12/2020. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 122 neonates presented with JIA in 1/2018-12/2022, 83 of whom were treated for complex JIA. A significant decrease (p = 0.03) was noted in patient mortality in 2021 and 2022 (n = 33, 45.5% mortality) compared to 2018-2020 (n = 35, 71.4% mortality). This translated to a risk reduction of 0.64 (95% CI 0.41-0.98) with the increased use of BK. CONCLUSION: Increased use of BK anastomoses with early enteral nutrition and decreased use of primary anastomosis improves outcomes for neonates with severe JIA in LIC settings. Implementing this surgical approach in LICs may help address the disparities in outcomes for children with JIA.

Treatment abandonment in children with Wilms tumor at a national referral hospital in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of pediatric Wilms' tumor (WT) is high in Africa, though patients abandon treatment after initial diagnosis. We sought to identify factors associated with WT treatment abandonment in Uganda. METHODS: A cohort study of patients < 18 years with WT in a Ugandan national referral hospital examined clinical and treatment outcomes data, comparing children whose families adhered to and abandoned treatment. Abandonment was defined as the inability to complete neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for patients with unilateral WT and definitive chemotherapy for patients with bilateral WT. Patient factors were assessed via bivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: 137 WT patients were included from 2012 to 2017. The mean age was 3.9 years, 71% (n = 98) were stage III or higher. After diagnosis, 86% (n = 118) started neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 59% (n = 82) completed neoadjuvant therapy, and 55% (n = 75) adhered to treatment through surgery. Treatment abandonment was associated with poor chemotherapy response (odds ratio [OR] 4.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-17.0) and tumor size > 25 cm (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.05-6.81). CONCLUSIONS: Children with WT in Uganda frequently abandon care during neoadjuvant therapy, particularly those with large tumors with poor response. Further investigation into the factors that influence treatment abandonment and a deeper understanding of tumor biology are needed to improve treatment adherence of children with WT in Uganda.

Determinants of Access to Essential Surgery in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

INTRODUCTION: In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the determinants and barriers of essential surgical care are not well described, hindering efforts to improve national surgical programs and access. METHODS: A cross-sectional study evaluated access to essential surgery in the Butembo and Katwa health zones in the North Kivu province of DRC. A double-clustered random sample of community members was surveyed using questions derived from the Surgeons OverSeas Surgical Needs Assessment Survey, a validated tool to determine the reasons for not seeking, reaching, or receiving a Bellwether surgery (i.e., caesarean delivery, laparotomy, and external fixation of a fracture) when needed. RESULTS: Overall, 887 households comprising 5944 community members were surveyed from April to August 2022. Six percent (n = 363/5944) of the study population involving 35% (n = 309/887) households needed a Bellwether surgery in the previous year, 30% (n = 108/363) of whom died. Of those who needed surgery, 25% (n = 78) did not go to the hospital to seek care and were more likely to find transportation unaffordable (P = 0.042). The most common reasons for not seeking care were lack of funds for hospitalization, prior poor hospital experience, and fear of hospital care. CONCLUSIONS: Access and delivery of essential surgery are drastically limited in the North Kivu province of the DRC, such that a quarter of households needing surgery fails to seek surgical care. Poor access was predominantly driven by households' inability to pay for surgery and community distrust of the hospital system.

Pediatric Surgical Waitlist in Low Middle Income Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease-19 led to a significant reduction in surgery worldwide. Studies, however, of the effect on surgical volume for pediatric patients in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited. METHODS: A survey was developed to estimate waitlists in LMICs for priority surgical conditions in children. The survey was piloted and revised before it was deployed over email to 19 surgeons. Pediatric surgeons at 15 different sites in eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Ecuador completed the survey from February 2021 to June 2021. The survey included the total number of children awaiting surgery and estimates for specific conditions. Respondents were also able to add additional procedures. RESULTS: Public hospitals had longer wait times than private facilities. The median waitlist was 90 patients, and the median wait time was 2 mo for elective surgeries. CONCLUSIONS: Lengthy surgical wait times affect surgical access in LMICs. Coronavirus disease-19 had been associated with surgical delays around the world, exacerbating existing surgical backlogs. Our results revealed significant delays for elective, urgent, and emergent cases across sub-Saharan Africa. Stakeholders should consider approaches to scale the limited surgical and perioperative resources in LMICs, create mitigation strategies for future pandemics, and establish ways to monitor waitlists on an ongoing basis.

Surgically Correctable Congenital Anomalies: Reducing Morbidity and Mortality in the First 8000 Days of Life.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We aimed to review the common surgically correctable congenital anomalies with recent updates on the global disease burden and identify the factors affecting morbidity and mortality. METHOD: A literature review was done to assess the burden of surgical congenital anomalies with emphasis on those that present within the first 8000 days of life. The various patterns of diseases were analyzed in both low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC). RESULTS: Surgical problems such as digestive congenital anomalies, congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are now seen more frequently. The burden of disease weighs more heavily on LMIC. Cleft lip and palate has gained attention and appropriate treatment within many countries, and its care has been strengthened by global surgical partnerships. Antenatal scans and timely diagnosis are important factors affecting morbidity and mortality. The frequency of pregnancy termination following prenatal diagnosis of a congenital anomaly is lower in many LMIC than in HIC. CONCLUSION: Congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are the most common congenital surgical diseases; however, easily treatable gastrointestinal anomalies are underdiagnosed due to the invisible nature of the condition. Current healthcare systems in most LMICs are still unprepared to tackle the burden of disease caused by congenital anomalies. Increased investment in surgical services is needed.

Routine Pediatric Surgical Emergencies: Incidence, Morbidity, and Mortality During the 1st 8000 Days of Life-A Narrative Review.

BACKGROUND: Many potentially treatable non-congenital and non-traumatic surgical conditions can occur during the first 8000 days of life and an estimated 85% of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will develop one before 15 years old. This review summarizes the common routine surgical emergencies in children from LMICs and their effects on morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A narrative review was undertaken to assess the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of common surgical emergencies that present within the first 8000 days (or 21.9 years) of life in LMICs. Available data on pediatric surgical emergency care in LMICs were aggregated. RESULTS: Outside of trauma, acute appendicitis, ileal perforation secondary to typhoid fever, and intestinal obstruction from intussusception and hernias continue to be the most common abdominal emergencies among children in LMICs. Musculoskeletal infections also contribute significantly to the surgical burden in children. These "neglected" conditions disproportionally affect children in LMICs and are due to delays in seeking care leading to late presentation and preventable complications. Pediatric surgical emergencies also necessitate heavy resource utilization in LMICs, where healthcare systems are already under strain. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in care and resource limitations in LMIC healthcare systems are key contributors to the complicated and emergent presentation of pediatric surgical disease. Timely access to surgery can not only prevent long-term impairments but also preserve the impact of public health interventions and decrease costs in the overall healthcare system.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Pediatric Surgical Volume in Four Low- and Middle-Income Country Hospitals: Insights from an Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgical care delivery in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has been challenging to assess due to a lack of data. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on pediatric surgical volumes at four LMIC hospitals. METHODS: Retrospective and prospective pediatric surgical data collected at hospitals in Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Nigeria, and Zambia were reviewed from January 2019 to April 2021. Changes in surgical volume were assessed using interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: 6078 total operations were assessed. Before the pandemic, overall surgical volume increased by 21 cases/month (95% CI 14 to 28, p < 0.001). From March to April 2020, the total surgical volume dropped by 32%, or 110 cases (95% CI - 196 to - 24, p = 0.014). Patients during the pandemic were younger (2.7 vs. 3.3 years, p < 0.001) and healthier (ASA I 69% vs. 66%, p = 0.003). Additionally, they experienced lower rates of post-operative sepsis (0.3% vs 1.5%, p < 0.001), surgical site infections (1.3% vs 5.8%, p < 0.001), and mortality (1.6% vs 3.1%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, children's surgery in LMIC saw a sharp decline in total surgical volume by a third in the month following March 2020, followed by a slow recovery afterward. Patients were healthier with better post-operative outcomes during the pandemic, implying a widening disparity gap in surgical access and exacerbating challenges in addressing the large unmet burden of pediatric surgical disease in LMICs with a need for immediate mitigation strategies.

Estimates of Treatable Deaths Within the First 20 Years of Life from Scaling Up Surgical Care at First-Level Hospitals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Surgical care is an important, yet often neglected component of child health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the potential impact of scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals in LMICs within the first 20 years of life. METHODS: Epidemiological data from the global burden of disease 2019 Study and a counterfactual method developed for the disease control priorities; 3rd Edition were used to estimate the number of treatable deaths in the under 20 year age group if surgical care could be scaled up at first-level hospitals. Our model included three digestive diseases, four maternal and neonatal conditions, and seven common traumatic injuries. RESULTS: An estimated 314,609 (95% UI, 239,619-402,005) deaths per year in the under 20 year age group could be averted if surgical care were scaled up at first-level hospitals in LMICs. Most of the treatable deaths are in the under-5 year age group (80.9%) and relates to improved obstetrical care and its effect on reducing neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Injuries are the leading cause of treatable deaths after age 5 years. Sixty-one percent of the treatable deaths occur in lower middle-income countries. Overall, scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals could avert 5·1% of the total deaths in children and adolescents under 20 years of age in LMICs per year. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the capacity of surgical services at first-level hospitals in LMICs has the potential to avert many deaths within the first 20 years of life.

Best Buy in Public Health or Luxury Expense?: The Cost-effectiveness of a Pediatric Operating Room in Uganda From the Societal Perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of building and maintaining a dedicated pediatric operating room (OR) in Uganda from the societal perspective. BACKGROUND: Despite the heavy burden of pediatric surgical disease in low-income countries, definitive treatment is limited as surgical infrastructure is inadequate to meet the need, leading to preventable morbidity and mortality in children. METHODS: In this economic model, we used a decision tree template to compare the intervention of a dedicated pediatric OR in Uganda for a year versus the absence of a pediatric OR. Costs were included from the government, charity, and patient perspectives. OR and ward case-log informed epidemiological and patient outcomes data, and measured cost per disability adjusted life year averted and cost per life saved. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated between the intervention and counterfactual scenario. Costs are reported in 2015 US$ and inflated by 5.5%. FINDINGS: In Uganda, the implementation of a dedicated pediatric OR has an ICER of $37.25 per disability adjusted life year averted or $3321 per life saved, compared with no existing operating room. The ICER is well below multiple cost-effectiveness thresholds including one times the country's gross domestic product per capita ($694). The ICER remained robust under 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Our model ICER suggests that the construction and maintenance of a dedicated pediatric operating room in sub-Saharan Africa is very-cost effective if hospital space and personnel pre-exist to staff the facility. This supports infrastructure implementation for surgery in sub-Saharan Africa as a worthwhile investment.

Resectability, Recurrence, and Risk Stratification of Giant Solitary Fibrous Tumors in the Thoracic Cavity.

BACKGROUND: Solitary fibrous tumors (SFTs) are rare mesenchymal tumors most commonly arising from the pleura in the thoracic cavity. The impact of tumor size on risk of recurrence in thoracic SFTs is not well understood. METHODS: A single institution review was performed on all resected thoracic SFTs (1992-2019) with giant SFT defined as ≥ 15 cm. Clinical information, pathologic characteristics, and long-term survival data were collected, and predictors of recurrence and survival were evaluated with regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: There were 38 thoracic SFTs resected from patients, with the majority of tumors (n = 23, 60.5%) originating from visceral pleura. There were nine (23.7%) giant SFTs with a mean size 20.4 cm (range 17-30 cm). Mean follow-up time was 81.0 months (range 1-261 months), during which 4 of 38 (10.5%) patients experienced a recurrence within the thorax (range 51-178 months). The presence of tumor necrosis (p = 0.021) and ≥ 4 mitoses per high-powered field (p = 0.010) were associated with SFT recurrence on univariate regression. Overall 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year survival was 78.2%, 72.6%, and 42.4%, respectively, and SFT-related mortality occurred in three patients at 83, 180, and 208 months postoperatively. There were no recurrences or SFT-related mortality among patients with giant SFT. CONCLUSION: This study represents one of the largest contemporary single institution reviews of long-term outcomes of giant thoracic SFT. Our data suggest that size is not a risk factor for recurrence in thoracic SFTs and long-term survival is excellent for giant SFTs.

Accuracy of the Lymph Node Yield in Surgery for Papillary Thyroid Cancer in Children.

INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to determine the accuracy of lymph node yield (LNY) for pediatric patients undergoing thyroidectomy with concurrent lymph nodes harvest for clinically node-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). METHODS: Patients aged ≤ 18 years with cN0 PTC undergoing thyroidectomy were reviewed in the NCDB, 1998-2016. Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with ≥ 1 LNY were compared to those without. A truncated beta-binomial distribution estimated the number of lymph nodes needed to detect pathologic nodal positivity, and LNY was calibrated for 90% sensitivity in nodal staging and stratified across clinical tumor size staging (T). RESULTS: 1,948 children with cN0 PTC underwent surgical resection; median age was 17 years; 83.2% were female; 47.6% were T1, 25.3% T2, 9.3% T3. 1,272 (65.3%) of these patients had lymph nodes resected, or ≥ 1 LNY. The median LNY was 5 nodes (interquartile range 2-12); 45.9% of patients had ≥ 1 metastatic lymph nodes. In the overall ≥ 1 LNY cohort, 12 nodes (CI 9-19) were needed to predict nodal positivity with > 90% sensitivity. Based on clinical T-stage, detecting a metastatic lymph node with > 90% sensitivity required a LNY of 14 for T1; 8 for T2; 6 for T3. CONCLUSION: This is the first study estimating the necessary LNY for determining nodal positivity in children with cN0 PTC. The high LNY required in small T1 tumors is likely infeasible and should not be pursued. Accuracy increases with lower LNYs for higher T-stages. Our findings can help guide prognosis and treatment for pediatric patients with PTC.

From Procedure to Poverty: Out-of-Pocket and Catastrophic Expenditure for Pediatric Surgery in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Financial protection from catastrophic health care expenditure (CHE) and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) spending are key indicators for sustainable surgical delivery. We aimed to calculate these metrics for a hospital stay requiring surgery in Uganda's pediatric population. METHODS: A survey was administered to family members of postoperative patients in the pediatric surgical ward at Mulago Hospital. Cost categories included direct medical costs, direct nonmedical costs, indirect costs, plus money borrowed and items sold to pay for the hospital stay. CHE was defined as spending greater than 10% of annual household expenditure. Costs were reported in Ugandan shillings and US dollars. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-two patient families were surveyed between November 2016 and April 2017. Median direct costs were $27.55 (IQR 18.73-183.69) for diagnostics, $18.36 (IQR 9.52-41.33) for medications, $26.63 (IQR 9.19-45.92) for transportation, and $32.60 (IQR 12.85-64.29) for food and lodging. Forty-four percent of respondents were employed, and median indirect cost from productivity loss was $95.52 (IQR 55.10-243.38). Eighteen percent (16/87) borrowed money, and 9% (8/87) sold possessions to pay for the hospital stay. Total median OOP cost for patient families per hospital stay was $150.62 (IQR 65.21-339.82). Sixteen percent (21/132) of families incurred CHE from direct costs, and the proportion rose to 27% (32/132) when indirect cost was included. CONCLUSIONS: Although pediatric surgical services in Uganda are formally provided for free by the public sector, families accrue substantial OOP expenditure and almost a third of households incur CHE for a pediatric surgical procedure. This study suggests that broader financial protection must be established to meet Sustainable Development Goal targets.

Development and Internal-external Validation of a Post-operative Mortality Risk Calculator for Pediatric Surgical Patients in Low- and Middle- Income Countries Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mortality risk algorithm for pediatric surgery patients treated at KidsOR sites in 14 low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: A SuperLearner machine learning algorithm was trained to predict post-operative mortality by hospital discharge using the retrospectively and prospectively collected KidsOR database including patients treated at 20 KidsOR sites from June 2018 to June 2023. Algorithm performance was evaluated by internal-external cross-validated AUC and calibration. FINDINGS: Of 23,905 eligible patients, 21,703 with discharge status recorded were included in the analysis, representing a post-operative mortality rate of 3.1% (671 mortality events). The candidate algorithm with the best cross-validated performance was an extreme gradient boosting model. The cross-validated AUC was 0.945 (95% CI 0.936 to 0.954) and cross-validated calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.06) and 0.05 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.21). For Super Learner models trained on all but one site and evaluated in the holdout site for sites with at least 25 mortality events, overall external validation AUC was 0.864 (95% CI 0.846 to 0.882) with calibration slope and intercept of 1.03 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.09) and 1.18 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.39). INTERPRETATION: The KidsOR post-operative mortality risk algorithm had outstanding cross-validated discrimination and strong cross-validated calibration. Across all external validation sites, discrimination of Super Learner models trained on the remaining sites was excellent, though re-calibration may be necessary prior to use at new sites. This model has the potential to inform clinical practice and guide resource allocation at KidsOR sites world-wide. TYPE OF STUDY AND LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Observational Study, Level III.

Factors associated with trauma recidivism in young children.

BACKGROUND: Trauma recidivism is associated with future trauma-associated morbidity and mortality. Previous evidence suggests that socioeconomic factors predict trauma recidivism in older children (10-18 years); however, risk factors in US children 10 years and younger have not been studied. We sought to determine the factors associated with trauma recidivism in young children 10 years and younger. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of pediatric trauma patients 10 years and younger who presented to a single American College of Surgeons-verified Level I pediatric trauma center from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2021. All patients were evaluated for prior injury during trauma registry entry. Characteristics at the index injury were collected via chart review. Patients were geocoded to assess Social Vulnerability Index. Logistic regression examined factors associated with recidivism. Best subset selection was used to compare multivariable models and identify the most predictive and parsimonious model. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS: Of the 3,518 patients who presented in the study period, 169 (4.8%) experienced a prior injury. Seventy-six percent (n = 128) had one prior injury presentation, 18% (n = 31) had two prior presentations, and 5.9% (n = 10) had three or more. Falls were the most common mechanism in recidivists (63% vs. 52%, p = 0.009). Child physical abuse occurred in 6.5% of patients, and 0.9% experienced penetrating injury. The majority (n = 137 [83%]) were discharged home from the emergency department. There was no significant difference in the frequency of penetrating injury and child physical abuse between recidivists and nonrecidivists. Following logistic regression, the most parsimonious model demonstrated that recidivism was associated with comorbidities, age, falls, injury location, nontransfer, and racialization. No significant associations were found with Social Vulnerability Index and insurance status. CONCLUSION: Medical comorbidities, young age, injury location, and falls were primarily associated with trauma recidivism. Support for parents of young children and those with special health care needs through injury prevention programs could reduce trauma recidivism in this population. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III.