Postoperative circadian patterns in wearable sensor measured heart rate: a prospective observational study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to describe the 24-hour cycle of wearable sensor-obtained heart rate in patients with deterioration-free recovery and to compare it with patients experiencing postoperative deterioration. METHODS: A prospective observational trial was performed in patients following bariatric or major abdominal cancer surgery. A wireless accelerometer patch (Healthdot) continuously measured postoperative heart rate, both in the hospital and after discharge, for a period of 14 days. The circadian pattern, or diurnal rhythm, in the wearable sensor-obtained heart rate was described using peak, nadir and peak-nadir excursions. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 137 bariatric and 100 major abdominal cancer surgery patients. In the latter group, 39 experienced postoperative deterioration. Both surgery types showed disrupted diurnal rhythm on the first postoperative days. Thereafter, the bariatric group had significantly lower peak heart rates (days 4, 7-12, 14), lower nadir heart rates (days 3-14) and larger peak-nadir excursions (days 2, 4-14). In cancer surgery patients, significantly higher nadir (days 2-5) and peak heart rates (days 2-3) were observed prior to deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: The postoperative diurnal rhythm of heart rate is disturbed by different types of surgery. Both groups showed recovery of diurnal rhythm but in patients following cancer surgery, both peak and nadir heart rates were higher than in the bariatric surgery group. Especially nadir heart rate was identified as a potential prognostic marker for deterioration after cancer surgery.

Elucidating yeast glycolytic dynamics at steady state growth and glucose pulses through kinetic metabolic modeling.

Microbial cell factories face changing environments during industrial fermentations. Kinetic metabolic models enable the simulation of the dynamic metabolic response to these perturbations, but their development is challenging due to model complexity and experimental data requirements. An example of this is the well-established microbial cell factory Saccharomyces cerevisiae, for which no consensus kinetic model of central metabolism has been developed and implemented in industry. Here, we aim to bring the academic and industrial communities closer to this consensus model. We developed a physiology informed kinetic model of yeast glycolysis connected to central carbon metabolism by including the effect of anabolic reactions precursors, mitochondria and the trehalose cycle. To parametrize such a large model, a parameter estimation pipeline was developed, consisting of a divide and conquer approach, supplemented with regularization and global optimization. Additionally, we show how this first mechanistic description of a growing yeast cell captures experimental dynamics at different growth rates and under a strong glucose perturbation, is robust to parametric uncertainty and explains the contribution of the different pathways in the network. Such a comprehensive model could not have been developed without using steady state and glucose perturbation data sets. The resulting metabolic reconstruction and parameter estimation pipeline can be applied in the future to study other industrially-relevant scenarios. We show this by generating a hybrid CFD-metabolic model to explore intracellular glycolytic dynamics for the first time. The model suggests that all intracellular metabolites oscillate within a physiological range, except carbon storage metabolism, which is sensitive to the extracellular environment.

Machine Learning for Postoperative Continuous Recovery Scores of Oncology Patients in Perioperative Care with Data from Wearables.

Assessing post-operative recovery is a significant component of perioperative care, since this assessment might facilitate detecting complications and determining an appropriate discharge date. However, recovery is difficult to assess and challenging to predict, as no universally accepted definition exists. Current solutions often contain a high level of subjectivity, measure recovery only at one moment in time, and only investigate recovery until the discharge moment. For these reasons, this research aims to create a model that predicts continuous recovery scores in perioperative care in the hospital and at home for objective decision making. This regression model utilized vital signs and activity metrics measured using wearable sensors and the XGBoost algorithm for training. The proposed model described continuous recovery profiles, obtained a high predictive performance, and provided outcomes that are interpretable due to the low number of features in the final model. Moreover, activity features, the circadian rhythm of the heart, and heart rate recovery showed the highest feature importance in the recovery model. Patients could be identified with fast and slow recovery trajectories by comparing patient-specific predicted profiles to the average fast- and slow-recovering populations. This identification may facilitate determining appropriate discharge dates, detecting complications, preventing readmission, and planning physical therapy. Hence, the model can provide an automatic and objective decision support tool.

Personalized computational model quantifies heterogeneity in postprandial responses to oral glucose challenge.

Plasma glucose and insulin responses following an oral glucose challenge are representative of glucose tolerance and insulin resistance, key indicators of type 2 diabetes mellitus pathophysiology. A large heterogeneity in individuals' challenge test responses has been shown to underlie the effectiveness of lifestyle intervention. Currently, this heterogeneity is overlooked due to a lack of methods to quantify the interconnected dynamics in the glucose and insulin time-courses. Here, a physiology-based mathematical model of the human glucose-insulin system is personalized to elucidate the heterogeneity in individuals' responses using a large population of overweight/obese individuals (n = 738) from the DIOGenes study. The personalized models are derived from population level models through a systematic parameter selection pipeline that may be generalized to other biological systems. The resulting personalized models showed a 4-5 fold decrease in discrepancy between measurements and model simulation compared to population level. The estimated model parameters capture relevant features of individuals' metabolic health such as gastric emptying, endogenous insulin secretion and insulin dependent glucose disposal into tissues, with the latter also showing a significant association with the Insulinogenic index and the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index, respectively.

Left atrial reservoir strain as a predictor of cardiac outcome in patients with heart failure: the HaFaC cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The left atrium (LA) is a key player in the pathophysiology of systolic and diastolic heart failure (HF). Speckle tracking derived LA reservoir strain (LASr) can be used as a prognostic surrogate for elevated left ventricular filling pressure similar to NT-proBNP. The aim of the study is to investigate the correlation between LASr and NT-proBNP and its prognostic value with regards to the composite endpoint of HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality within 1 year. METHODS: Outpatients, sent to the echocardiography core lab because of HF, were enrolled into this study. Patients underwent a transthoracic echocardiographic examination, commercially available software was used to measure LASr. Blood samples were collected directly after the echocardiographic examination to determine NT-proBNP. RESULTS: We included 174 HF patients, 43% with reduced, 36% with mildly reduced, and 21% with preserved ejection fraction. The study population showed a strong inverse correlation between LASr and log-transformed NT-proBNP (r = - 0.75, p < 0.01). Compared to NT-proBNP, LASr predicts the endpoint with a comparable specificity (83% vs. 84%), however with a lower sensitivity (70% vs. 61%). CONCLUSION: LASr is inversely correlated with NT-proBNP and a good echocardiographic predictor for the composite endpoint of hospitalization and all-cause mortality in patients with HF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/7268.

Altered bile acid kinetics contribute to postprandial hypoglycaemia after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Bile acids (BA) act as detergents in intestinal fat absorption and as modulators of metabolic processes via activation of receptors such as FXR and TGR5. Elevated plasma BA as well as increased intestinal BA signalling to promote GLP-1 release have been implicated in beneficial health effects of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Whether BA also contribute to the postprandial hypoglycaemia that is frequently observed post-RYGB is unknown. METHODS: Plasma BA, fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19), 7α-hydroxy-4-cholesten-3-one (C4), GLP-1, insulin and glucose levels were determined during 3.5 h mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTT) in subjects after RYGB, either with (RYGB, n = 11) or without a functioning gallbladder due to cholecystectomy (RYGB-CC, n = 11). Basal values were compared to those of age, BMI and sex-matched obese controls without RYGB (n = 22). RESULTS: Fasting BA as well as FGF19 levels were elevated in RYGB and RYGB-CC subjects compared to non-bariatric controls, without significant differences between RYGB and RYGB-CC. Postprandial hypoglycaemia was observed in 8/11 RYGB-CC and only in 3/11 RYGB. Subjects who developed hypoglycaemia showed higher postprandial BA levels coinciding with augmented GLP-1 and insulin responses during the MMTT. The nadir of plasma glucose concentrations after meals showed a negative relationship with postprandial BA peaks. Plasma C4 was lower during MMTT in subjects experiencing hypoglycaemia, indicating lower hepatic BA synthesis. Computer simulations revealed that altered intestinal transit underlies the occurrence of exaggerated postprandial BA responses in hypoglycaemic subjects. CONCLUSION: Altered BA kinetics upon ingestion of a meal, as frequently observed in RYGB-CC subjects, appear to contribute to postprandial hypoglycaemia by stimulating intestinal GLP-1 release.

A computational model of postprandial adipose tissue lipid metabolism derived using human arteriovenous stable isotope tracer data.

Given the association of disturbances in non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) metabolism with the development of Type 2 Diabetes and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, computational models of glucose-insulin dynamics have been extended to account for the interplay with NEFA. In this study, we use arteriovenous measurement across the subcutaneous adipose tissue during a mixed meal challenge test to evaluate the performance and underlying assumptions of three existing models of adipose tissue metabolism and construct a new, refined model of adipose tissue metabolism. Our model introduces new terms, explicitly accounting for the conversion of glucose to glyceraldehye-3-phosphate, the postprandial influx of glycerol into the adipose tissue, and several physiologically relevant delays in insulin signalling in order to better describe the measured adipose tissues fluxes. We then applied our refined model to human adipose tissue flux data collected before and after a diet intervention as part of the Yoyo study, to quantify the effects of caloric restriction on postprandial adipose tissue metabolism. Significant increases were observed in the model parameters describing the rate of uptake and release of both glycerol and NEFA. Additionally, decreases in the model's delay in insulin signalling parameters indicates there is an improvement in adipose tissue insulin sensitivity following caloric restriction.

In vivo and in silico dynamics of the development of Metabolic Syndrome.

The Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a complex, multifactorial disorder that develops slowly over time presenting itself with large differences among MetS patients. We applied a systems biology approach to describe and predict the onset and progressive development of MetS, in a study that combined in vivo and in silico models. A new data-driven, physiological model (MINGLeD: Model INtegrating Glucose and Lipid Dynamics) was developed, describing glucose, lipid and cholesterol metabolism. Since classic kinetic models cannot describe slowly progressing disorders, a simulation method (ADAPT) was used to describe longitudinal dynamics and to predict metabolic concentrations and fluxes. This approach yielded a novel model that can describe long-term MetS development and progression. This model was integrated with longitudinal in vivo data that was obtained from male APOE*3-Leiden.CETP mice fed a high-fat, high-cholesterol diet for three months and that developed MetS as reflected by classical symptoms including obesity and glucose intolerance. Two distinct subgroups were identified: those who developed dyslipidemia, and those who did not. The combination of MINGLeD with ADAPT could correctly predict both phenotypes, without making any prior assumptions about changes in kinetic rates or metabolic regulation. Modeling and flux trajectory analysis revealed that differences in liver fluxes and dietary cholesterol absorption could explain this occurrence of the two different phenotypes. In individual mice with dyslipidemia dietary cholesterol absorption and hepatic turnover of metabolites, including lipid fluxes, were higher compared to those without dyslipidemia. Predicted differences were also observed in gene expression data, and consistent with the emergence of insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis, two well-known MetS co-morbidities. Whereas MINGLeD specifically models the metabolic derangements underlying MetS, the simulation method ADAPT is generic and can be applied to other diseases where dynamic modeling and longitudinal data are available.

Domain intelligible models.

Mining biological information from rich "-omics" datasets is facilitated by organizing features into groups that are related to a biological phenomenon or clinical outcome. For example, microorganisms can be grouped based on a phylogenetic tree that depicts their similarities regarding genetic or physical characteristics. Here, we describe algorithms that incorporate auxiliary information in terms of groups of predictors and the relationships between them into the metagenome learning task to build intelligible models. In particular, our cost function guides the feature selection process using auxiliary information by requiring related groups of predictors to provide similar contributions to the final response. We apply the developed algorithms to a recently published dataset analyzing the effects of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) in order to identify factors that are associated with improved peripheral insulin sensitivity, leading to accurate predictions of the response to the FMT.

A genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) and its application to photorespiratory metabolism.

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) has been studied extensively due to its high economic value in the market, and high content in health-promoting antioxidant compounds. Tomato is also considered as an excellent model organism for studying the development and metabolism of fleshy fruits. However, the growth, yield and fruit quality of tomatoes can be affected by drought stress, a common abiotic stress for tomato. To investigate the potential metabolic response of tomato plants to drought, we reconstructed iHY3410, a genome-scale metabolic model of tomato leaf, and used this metabolic network to simulate tomato leaf metabolism. The resulting model includes 3410 genes and 2143 biochemical and transport reactions distributed across five intracellular organelles including cytosol, plastid, mitochondrion, peroxisome and vacuole. The model successfully described the known metabolic behaviour of tomato leaf under heterotrophic and phototrophic conditions. The in silico investigation of the metabolic characteristics for photorespiration and other relevant metabolic processes under drought stress suggested that: (i) the flux distributions through the mevalonate (MVA) pathway under drought were distinct from that under normal conditions; and (ii) the changes in fluxes through core metabolic pathways with varying flux ratio of RubisCO carboxylase to oxygenase may contribute to the adaptive stress response of plants. In addition, we improved on previous studies of reaction essentiality analysis for leaf metabolism by including potential alternative routes for compensating reaction knockouts. Altogether, the genome-scale model provides a sound framework for investigating tomato metabolism and gives valuable insights into the functional consequences of abiotic stresses.

Identifying User Preferences for a Digital Educational Solution for Young Seniors With Diabetes.

The Eindhoven Diabetes Education Simulator project was initiated to develop an educational solution that helps diabetes patients understand and learn more about their diabetes. This article describes the identification of user preferences for the development of such solutions. Young seniors (aged 50-65 years) with type 2 diabetes were chosen as the target group because they are likely to have more affinity with digital devices than older people and because 88% of the Dutch diabetes population is >50 years of age. Data about the target group were gathered through literature research and interviews. The literature research covered data about their device use and education preferences. To gain insight into the daily life of diabetes patients and current diabetes education processes, 20 diabetes patients and 10 medical experts were interviewed. The interviews were analyzed using affinity diagrams. Those diagrams, together with the literature data, formed the basis for two personas and corresponding customer journey maps. Literature showed that diabetes prevalence is inversely correlated to educational level. Computer and device use is relatively low within the target group, but is growing. The interviews showed that young seniors like to play board, card, and computer games, with others or alone. Family and loved ones play an important role in their lives. Medical experts are crucial in the diabetes education of young senior diabetes patients. These findings are translated into a list of design aspects that can be used for creating educational solutions.

A systems biology approach reveals the physiological origin of hepatic steatosis induced by liver X receptor activation.

Liver X receptor (LXR) agonists exert potent antiatherosclerotic actions but simultaneously induce excessive triglyceride (TG) accumulation in the liver. To obtain a detailed insight into the underlying mechanism of hepatic TG accumulation, we used a novel computational modeling approach called analysis of dynamic adaptations in parameter trajectories (ADAPT). We revealed that both input and output fluxes to hepatic TG content are considerably induced on LXR activation and that in the early phase of LXR agonism, hepatic steatosis results from only a minor imbalance between the two. It is generally believed that LXR-induced hepatic steatosis results from increased de novo lipogenesis (DNL). In contrast, ADAPT predicted that the hepatic influx of free fatty acids is the major contributor to hepatic TG accumulation in the early phase of LXR activation. Qualitative validation of this prediction showed a 5-fold increase in the contribution of plasma palmitate to hepatic monounsaturated fatty acids on acute LXR activation, whereas DNL was not yet significantly increased. This study illustrates that complex effects of pharmacological intervention can be translated into distinct patterns of metabolic regulation through state-of-the-art mathematical modeling.

A computational model for the analysis of lipoprotein distributions in the mouse: translating FPLC profiles to lipoprotein metabolism.

Disturbances of lipoprotein metabolism are recognized as indicators of cardiometabolic disease risk. Lipoprotein size and composition, measured in a lipoprotein profile, are considered to be disease risk markers. However, the measured profile is a collective result of complex metabolic interactions, which complicates the identification of changes in metabolism. In this study we aim to develop a method which quantitatively relates murine lipoprotein size, composition and concentration to the molecular mechanisms underlying lipoprotein metabolism. We introduce a computational framework which incorporates a novel kinetic model of murine lipoprotein metabolism. The model is applied to compute a distribution of plasma lipoproteins, which is then related to experimental lipoprotein profiles through the generation of an in silico lipoprotein profile. The model was first applied to profiles obtained from wild-type C57Bl/6J mice. The results provided insight into the interplay of lipoprotein production, remodelling and catabolism. Moreover, the concentration and metabolism of unmeasured lipoprotein components could be determined. The model was validated through the prediction of lipoprotein profiles of several transgenic mouse models commonly used in cardiovascular research. Finally, the framework was employed for longitudinal analysis of the profiles of C57Bl/6J mice following a pharmaceutical intervention with a liver X receptor (LXR) agonist. The multifaceted regulatory response to the administration of the compound is incompletely understood. The results explain the characteristic changes of the observed lipoprotein profile in terms of the underlying metabolic perturbation and resultant modifications of lipid fluxes in the body. The Murine Lipoprotein Profiler (MuLiP) presented here is thus a valuable tool to assess the metabolic origin of altered murine lipoprotein profiles and can be applied in preclinical research performed in mice for analysis of lipid fluxes and lipoprotein composition.

Parameter trajectory analysis to identify treatment effects of pharmacological interventions.

The field of medical systems biology aims to advance understanding of molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression and to translate this knowledge into therapies to effectively treat diseases. A challenging task is the investigation of long-term effects of a (pharmacological) treatment, to establish its applicability and to identify potential side effects. We present a new modeling approach, called Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories (ADAPT), to analyze the long-term effects of a pharmacological intervention. A concept of time-dependent evolution of model parameters is introduced to study the dynamics of molecular adaptations. The progression of these adaptations is predicted by identifying necessary dynamic changes in the model parameters to describe the transition between experimental data obtained during different stages of the treatment. The trajectories provide insight in the affected underlying biological systems and identify the molecular events that should be studied in more detail to unravel the mechanistic basis of treatment outcome. Modulating effects caused by interactions with the proteome and transcriptome levels, which are often less well understood, can be captured by the time-dependent descriptions of the parameters. ADAPT was employed to identify metabolic adaptations induced upon pharmacological activation of the liver X receptor (LXR), a potential drug target to treat or prevent atherosclerosis. The trajectories were investigated to study the cascade of adaptations. This provided a counter-intuitive insight concerning the function of scavenger receptor class B1 (SR-B1), a receptor that facilitates the hepatic uptake of cholesterol. Although activation of LXR promotes cholesterol efflux and -excretion, our computational analysis showed that the hepatic capacity to clear cholesterol was reduced upon prolonged treatment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by immunoblotting measurements of SR-B1 in hepatic membranes. Next to the identification of potential unwanted side effects, we demonstrate how ADAPT can be used to design new target interventions to prevent these.

Mechanism-based and data-driven modeling in cell-free synthetic biology.

Cell-free systems have emerged as a versatile platform in synthetic biology, finding applications in various areas such as prototyping synthetic circuits, biosensor development, and biomanufacturing. To streamline the prototyping process, cell-free systems often incorporate a modeling step that predicts the outcomes of various experimental scenarios, providing a deeper insight into the underlying mechanisms and functions. There are two recognized approaches for modeling these systems: mechanism-based modeling, which models the underlying reaction mechanisms; and data-driven modeling, which makes predictions based on data without preconceived interactions between system components. In this highlight, we focus on the latest advancements in both modeling approaches for cell-free systems, exploring their potential for the design and optimization of synthetic genetic circuits.

Leveraging continuous glucose monitoring for personalized modeling of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism.

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a promising, minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements for calibrating physiology-based mathematical models of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism, reducing the reliance on in-clinic measurements. However, the use of CGM glucose, particularly in combination with insulin measurements, to develop personalized models of glucose regulation remains unexplored. Here, we simultaneously measured interstitial glucose concentrations using CGM as well as plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in individuals with overweight or obesity to calibrate personalized models of glucose-insulin dynamics. We compared the use of interstitial glucose with plasma glucose in model calibration, and evaluated the effects on model fit, identifiability, and model parameters' association with clinically relevant metabolic indicators. Models calibrated on both plasma and interstitial glucose resulted in good model fit, and the parameter estimates associated with metabolic indicators such as insulin sensitivity measures in both cases. Moreover, practical identifiability of model parameters was improved in models estimated on CGM glucose compared to plasma glucose. Together these results suggest that CGM glucose may be considered as a minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements in model calibration to quantify the dynamics of glucose regulation.

Quantifying the effect of nutritional interventions on metabolic resilience using personalized computational models.

The manifestation of metabolic deteriorations that accompany overweight and obesity can differ greatly between individuals, giving rise to a highly heterogeneous population. This inter-individual variation can impede both the provision and assessment of nutritional interventions as multiple aspects of metabolic health should be considered at once. Here, we apply the Mixed Meal Model, a physiology-based computational model, to characterize an individual's metabolic health in silico. A population of 342 personalized models were generated using data for individuals with overweight and obesity from three independent intervention studies, demonstrating a strong relationship between the model-derived metric of insulin resistance (ρ = 0.67, p < 0.05) and the gold-standard hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. The model is also shown to quantify liver fat accumulation and ß-cell functionality. Moreover, we show that personalized Mixed Meal Models can be used to evaluate the impact of a dietary intervention on multiple aspects of metabolic health at the individual level.

Using Kinetic Modelling to Infer Adaptations in Saccharomyces cerevisiae Carbohydrate Storage Metabolism to Dynamic Substrate Conditions.

Microbial metabolism is strongly dependent on the environmental conditions. While these can be well controlled under laboratory conditions, large-scale bioreactors are characterized by inhomogeneities and consequently dynamic conditions for the organisms. How Saccharomyces cerevisiae response to frequent perturbations in industrial bioreactors is still not understood mechanistically. To study the adjustments to prolonged dynamic conditions, we used published repeated substrate perturbation regime experimental data, extended it with proteomic measurements and used both for modelling approaches. Multiple types of data were combined; including quantitative metabolome, 13C enrichment and flux quantification data. Kinetic metabolic modelling was applied to study the relevant intracellular metabolic response dynamics. An existing model of yeast central carbon metabolism was extended, and different subsets of enzymatic kinetic constants were estimated. A novel parameter estimation pipeline based on combinatorial enzyme selection supplemented by regularization was developed to identify and predict the minimum enzyme and parameter adjustments from steady-state to dynamic substrate conditions. This approach predicted proteomic changes in hexose transport and phosphorylation reactions, which were additionally confirmed by proteome measurements. Nevertheless, the modelling also hints at a yet unknown kinetic or regulation phenomenon. Some intracellular fluxes could not be reproduced by mechanistic rate laws, including hexose transport and intracellular trehalase activity during substrate perturbation cycles.

A data-driven computational model for obesity-driven diabetes onset and remission through weight loss.

Obesity is a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D), where a sustained weight loss may result in T2D remission in individuals with obesity. To design effective and feasible intervention strategies to prevent or reverse T2D, it is imperative to study the progression of T2D and remission together. Unfortunately, this is not possible through experimental and observational studies. To address this issue, we introduce a data-driven computational model and use human data to investigate the progression of T2D with obesity and remission through weight loss on the same timeline. We identify thresholds for the emergence of T2D and necessary conditions for remission. We explain why remission is only possible within a window of opportunity and the way that window depends on the progression history of T2D, individual's metabolic state, and calorie restrictions. These findings can help to optimize therapeutic intervention strategies for T2D prevention or treatment.

Prognostic Value of Combined Biomarkers in Patients With Heart Failure: The Heartmarker Score.

Background: Heart failure (HF) biomarkers have prognostic value. The aim of this study was to combine HF biomarkers into an objective classification system for risk stratification of patients with HF. Methods: HF biomarkers were analyzed in a population of HF outpatients and expressed relative to their cut-off values (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] >1,000 pg/mL, soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 [ST2] >35 ng/mL, growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15] >2,000 pg/mL, and fibroblast growth factor-23 [FGF-23] >95.4 pg/mL). Biomarkers that remained significant in multivariable analysis were combined to devise the Heartmarker score. The performance of the Heartmarker score was compared to the widely used New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification based on symptoms during ordinary activity. Results: HF biomarkers of 245 patients were analyzed, 45 (18%) of whom experienced the composite endpoint of HF hospitalization, appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock, or death. HF biomarkers were elevated more often in patients that reached the composite endpoint than in patients that did not reach the endpoint. NT-proBNP, ST2, and GDF-15 were independent predictors of the composite endpoint and were thus combined as the Heartmarker score. The event-free survival and distance covered in 6 minutes of walking decreased with an increasing Heartmarker score. Compared with the NYHA classification, the Heartmarker score was better at discriminating between different risk classes and had a comparable relationship to functional capacity. Conclusions: The Heartmarker score is a reproducible and intuitive model for risk stratification of outpatients with HF, using routine biomarker measurements.