Hydropower Plants as Dispersal Barriers in Freshwater Species Distribution Models: Using Restrictions through Asymmetrical Dispersal Predictors.

Hydropower plants represent one of the greatest threats for freshwater fish by fragmenting the habitat and avoiding the species dispersal. This type of dispersal barrier is often disregarded when predicting freshwater species distribution due to the complexity in inserting the species dispersal routes, and thus the barriers, into the models. Here, we evaluate the impact of including hydroelectric dams into species distribution models through asymmetrical dispersal predictors on the predicted geographic distribution of freshwater fish species. For this, we used asymmetrical dispersal (i.e., AEM) as predictors for modeling the distribution of 29 native fish species of Tocantins-Araguaia River basin. After that, we included the hydropower power plant (HPP) location into the asymmetrical binary matrix for the AEM construction by removing the connections where the HPP is located, representing the downstream disconnection a dam causes in the fish species dispersal route. Besides having higher predicted accuracy, the models using the HPP information generated more realistic predictions, avoiding overpredictions to areas suitable but limited to the species dispersal due to an anthropic barrier. Furthermore, the predictions including HPPs showed higher loss of species richness and nestedness (i.e., loss of species instead of replacement), especially for the southeastern area which concentrates most planned and built HPPs. Therefore, using dispersal constraints in species distribution models increases the reliability of the predictions by avoiding overpredictions based on premise of complete access by the species to any area that is climatically suitable regardless of dispersal barriers or capacity. In conclusion, in this study, we use a novel method of including dispersal constraints into distribution models through a priori insertion of their location within the asymmetrical dispersal predictors, avoiding a posteriori adjustment of the predicted distribution.

Effects of land use and spatial processes in water and surface sediment of tropical reservoirs at local and regional scales.

The effects of land use and connectivity on the characteristics of aquatic ecosystems are thought to be scale-dependent. This study aimed to evaluate the relationships between land use and reservoir characteristics at two spatial scales, after controlling for spatial processes. Water and surface sediment samples were collected from 31 sites (7 reservoirs) in the Paiva Castro and Piracicaba River basins (Cantareira System, São Paulo State, Brazil), during austral summer and winter. The dataset included 15 water quality variables and 6 surface sediment variables. Land use variables (natural areas, pasture, agriculture and urban areas) were obtained at two spatial scales (buffer and watershed) in each reservoir. Spatial variables were calculated using Moran's Eigenvectors Maps and Asymmetric Eigenvector Maps. The strengths of the relationships between land use and sediment variables were stronger than those between land use and water quality variables. The strengths of some of the relationships were scale-dependent. Finally, spatial processes, mostly hydrological connectivity, play an important role in water-sediment quality and should be considered in landscape management programs.