Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019.

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

Trends in sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections in China from 2005 to 2021: a joinpoint regression model.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections (STBBIs) is a major public health concern in China. This study assessed the overall trends in STBBIs to improve the comprehensive understanding of the burden of STBBIs and provide evidence for their prevention and control. METHODS: Data for the period from 2005 to 2021 were analyzed across China on infections with hepatitis B or C; syphilis; gonorrhea; and HIV infection. Trends, annual percent change (APC), and average annual percent change (AAPC) in diagnosis rate was analyzed using joinpoint regression models for the five STBBIs together or individually. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2021, the overall diagnosis rate of all five STBBIs increased, with an AAPC of 1.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5% to 3.1%]. Diagnosis rates of HIV, syphilis and hepatitis C increased individually, but it decreased for infections of hepatitis B and gonorrhea. Joinpoint analysis identified four phases in diagnosis rate of hepatitis C; three phases in diagnosis rate of hepatitis B, HIV infection, and syphilis; two in diagnosis rate of gonorrhea infection. CONCLUSION: Despite national efforts to prevent and control STBBIs, their overall diagnosis rate has continued to rise in China, and they remain an important public health challenge. Further efforts should be made to educate the general population about STBBIs, particularly HIV. Interventions targeting vulnerable groups should be adopted and their efficacy monitored through regular analysis of trends.

Epidemiological characteristics of leukemia in China, 2005-2017: a log-linear regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is a threat to human health, and there are relatively few studies on the incidence, mortality and disease burden analysis of leukemia in China. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and mortality rates of leukemia in China from 2005 to 2017 and estimate their age-period-cohort effects, it is an important prerequisite for effective prevention and control of leukemia. METHODS: Leukemia incidence and mortality data from 2005 to 2017 were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) response time trend. Age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period and cohort. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate of leukemia was 4.54/100,000 from 2005 to 2017, showed an increasing trend with AAPC of 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3%, 2.5%). The age-standardized mortality rate was 2.91/100,000, showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2012 with APC of 2.1% (95%CI: 0.4%, 3.9%) and then a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2017 with APC of -2.5% (95%CI: -5.3%, 0.3%). The age-standardized incidence (mortality) rates of leukemia were not only higher in males than that in females, but also increased more rapidly. The incidence of leukemia in rural areas was lower than in urban areas, but the AAPC was 2.2 times higher than urban areas. Children aged 0-4 years were at higher risk of leukemia. The risk of leukemia incidence and mortality increased with age. The period effect of leukemia mortality risk showed a decreasing trend, while the cohort effect showed an increasing and then decreasing trend with the turning point of 1955-1959. CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized incidence rate of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017, while the age-standardized mortality rate increased first and then decreased in 2012 as a turning point. Differences existed by gender and region. The risk of leukemia incidence and mortality increased accordingly with age. The risk of mortality due to leukemia gradually decreased from 2005 to 2017. Leukemia remains a public health problem that requires continuous attention.

Analysis for trends in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old in China. / 中国5å²ä»¥ä¸‹å„¿ç«¥å ˆå¤©æ€§å‡ºç”Ÿç¼ºé™·çš„ç–¾ç— è´Ÿæ‹ è¶‹åŠ¿åˆ†æž.

OBJECTIVES: Congenital birth defects are the main source of disease burden among children under 5 years old in China. This study aims to compare the trends in disease burden of different congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of birth defects. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) in 2019, the incidence mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019 were selected as evaluation indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in disease burden of different types with congenital birth defects over three decades. The study also compared the differences in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old by gender. RESULTS: Compared to 1990, the DALYs rates of congenital heart anomalies (1 931.91/100 000), digestive congenital anomalies (364.63/100 000), neural tube defects (277.20/100 000), congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies (133.33/100 000), and Down syndrome (128.22/100 000) in children under 5 years old in China in 2019 were decreased 70.78%, 71.61%, 86.21%, 36.84% and 73.65%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality rates and DALYs rates of different congenital birth defects showed an overall downward trend, but the incidence of digestive congenital anomalies and Down syndrome showed an upward trend after 2005 and 2001, respectively. Except for congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies, incidence of the remaining categories of birth defects were higher in boys than that in girls. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under 5 years old in China is decreased substantially from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of congenital heart anomalies is still serious and the incidence of some birth defect diseases is on the rise, and it is still crucial to strengthen the prevention and treatment for birth defects in children and propose targeted measures according to their gender characteristics.

Global burden and trends of rotavirus infection-associated deaths from 1990 to 2019: an observational trend study.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is the leading global pathogen of diarrhea-associated mortality and poses a great threat to public health in all age groups. This study aimed to explore the global burden and 30-year change patterns of rotavirus infection-associated deaths. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study (GBD 2019), we analyzed the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of rotavirus infection by sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the global trends in rotavirus infection over the 30 years, SaTScan software was used to detect the spatial and temporal aggregations, and a generalized linear model to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and death rates of rotavirus infection. RESULTS: Globally, rotavirus infection was the leading cause of diarrheal deaths, accounting for 19.11% of deaths from diarrhea in 2019. Rotavirus caused a higher death burden in African, Oceanian, and South Asian countries in the past three decades. The ASDR of rotavirus declined from 11.39 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 5.46-19.48) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3.41 (95% UI 1.60-6.01) per 100,000 people in 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) (- 4.07%, P < 0.05). However, a significant uptrend was found in high-income North America (AAPC = 1.79%, P < 0.05). The death rate was the highest among children under 5 years worldwide. However, the death rates of elderly individuals over 70 years were higher than those of children under 5 years in 2019 among high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle SDI regions. Current health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita, and the number of physicians per 1000 people were significantly negatively correlated with death rates of rotavirus. CONCLUSIONS: Although the global trends in the rotavirus burden have decreased substantially over the past three decades, the burden of rotavirus remained high in Africa, Oceania, and South Asia. Children under 5 years and elderly individuals over 70 years were the populations most at risk for rotavirus infection-associated deaths, especially elderly individuals over 70 years in relatively high SDI regions. More attention should be paid to these areas and populations, and effective public health policies should be implemented in the future.

Trend in the incidence of hepatitis A in mainland China from 2004 to 2017: a joinpoint regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: China has experienced a continuous decreasing trend in the incidence of hepatitis A in recent years. Temporal trend analyses are helpful in exploring the reasons for the changing trend. Thus, this study aims to analyse the incidence trend of viral hepatitis A by region and age group in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures. METHODS: Data on hepatitis A and population information were collected and analysed with a joinpoint regression model. Annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated for the whole country and for each region and age group. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2017, the seasonality and periodicity of hepatitis A case numbers were obvious before 2008 but gradually diminished from 2008 to 2011 and disappeared from 2012-2017. The national incidence of hepatitis A (AAPC = - 12.1%) and the incidence rates for regions and age groups showed decreasing trends, with differences in the joinpoints and segments. Regarding regions, the hepatitis A incidence in the western region was always the highest among all regions, while a nonsignificant rebound was observed in the northeastern region from 2011 to 2017 (APC = 14.2%). Regarding age groups, the hepatitis A incidence showed the fastest decrease among children (AAPC = - 15.3%) and the slowest decrease among elderly individuals (AAPC = - 6.6%). Among all segments, the hepatitis A incidence among children had the largest APC value in 2007-2017, at - 20.4%. CONCLUSION: The national annual incidence of hepatitis A continually declined from 2004 to 2017 and the gaps in hepatitis A incidence rates across different regions and age groups were greatly narrowed. Comprehensive hepatitis A prevention and control strategies, including the use of routine vaccination during childhood in mainland China, especially the implementation of the national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2008, resulted in substantial progress from 2004 to 2017. However, gaps remain. Regular monitoring and analysis of hepatitis A epidemic data and prompt adjustment of hepatitis A prevention and control strategies focusing on children, elderly individuals and those living in certain regions are recommended.

Trends in the disease burden of congenital heart disease in China over the past three decades.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the disease burden of congenital heart disease (CHD) in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Using the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, the incidence, age-standardized incidence rates, the mortality, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rates of CHD were calculated. Time trend analysis of disease burden-related indicators was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. Age-period-cohort model was used to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects in CHD mortality population. The relationship between age-standardized incidence, mortality, DALY rates of congenital heart disease and human development index (HDI) were analyzed by Pearson correlation. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the mean annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate of CHD in China were -0.1%(95% CI: -0.7%-0.4%)、-3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%) and -3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%), respectively. CHD usually occurred in the first year of life. The mean incidence rate at birth was 2497.9/100 000, and the mean incidence rate under 1 year of age was 2626.6/100 000. During the period of 1995-2000, the incidence rate in newborn and <1 year children showed an exponential upward trend, then it remained a steady downward trend. However, there was an exponential increase in <1 year children during 2010-2013 and 2014-2015, followed by an exponential decrease to the lowest value in the last three decades. The mortality of CHD tended to decrease with age, with mortality of 101.67/100 000 for children under 5 years of age and a decrease after 5 years of age. However, there was a transient increase in mortality in age group 55-<60. From 1995 to 2019, the relative risk of death of patients with CHD showed a downward trend. Compared with 1995-1999, the rate ratio of death decreased by 24% in 2015-2019. Such downward trend was also observed in the birth cohort after 1945. Compared with the 1945-1949 birth cohort, the rate ratio of death for patients with CHD decreased by 75% in the 2015-2019 birth cohort. When HDI<0.58 (before 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was positively correlated with HDI ( r=0.74, P<0.05). When HDI≥0.58 (after 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.76, P<0.01). The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.95 and -0.93, both P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: During 1990 to 1999, the incidence of CHD increases and is positively correlated with the social development. During 1999 to 2019, the incidence of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. The disease burden of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. Some progress has been made in the field of prevention and control of CHD, but the disease burden remains high among younger population in China.

Primary drug resistance of mycobacterium tuberculosis in Shandong, China, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: Primary drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) has contributed to a significant health and economic burden on a global scale, especially in China. we sought to estimate epidemiological characteristics of primary DR-TB in China from 2004 to 2018. METHODS: Eleven thousand four hundred sixty-seven newly diagnosed and 1981 retreated TB cases with drug susceptibility data were included. Chi-Square test for trends, linear regression, a joinpoint regression model and temporal trend in proportions of the different resistance patterns were carried out. RESULTS: The proportion of primary DR-TB and mono-resistant TB (MR-TB) in China had reduced by more than 12% since 2004, and were 21.38%, 13.35% in 2018 respectively. Among primary DR-TB cases (2173,18.95%), the percentage of multiresistant TB (MDR-TB, from 5.41 to 17.46%), male (from 77.03 to 84.13%), cavity (from 13.51 to 43.92%), rifampicin(RFP)-resistant TB (from 8.11 to 26.98%), streptomycin(SM)-resistant TB (from 50.00 to 71.43%) increased significantly (P < 0.05). On the contrary, the proportion of female, non-cavity, isoniazide(INH)-resistant TB (from 55.41 to 48.15%) and MR-TB (from 82.43 to 62.43%) decreased significant (P < 0.05). The primary drug resistance rate among female, cavity, smoking, drinking, 15 to 44 year-old TB subgroups increased by 0.16, 6.24, 20.95, 158.85, 31.49%, respectively. The percentage of primary DR-TB, RFP-resistant TB dropped significantly during 2004-2007 in Joinpoint regression model. CONCLUSION: The total rate of drug resistance among new TB cases showed a downward trend in Shandong, China, from 2004 to 2018. Primary drug resistance patterns were shifting from female, non-cavity, INH-resistant TB, and MR-TB groups to male, cavity, RFP/SM-resistant TB, and MDR-TB groups. Considering the rising drug resistance rate among some special population, future control of primary DR-TB in China may require an increased focus on female, cavity, smoking, drinking, or 15 to 44 year-old TB subgroups.

Updated information concerning trends in suicide rates in elderly in China, 2002-2020.

The aim of this study was to investigate trends in suicide rates (SRs) among the elderly in China. Annual data on SRs among Chinese people ≥ the age of 65 were collected from China's Health Statistics Yearbook from 2002 to 2020. Then, data were stratified by age, region, and sex. Standardized SRs were calculated and analyzed using a conventional joinpoint regression model. Results revealed that overall, SRs among the elderly in China tended to decline from 2002-2020. Fluctuations in SRs, including in 2004-2005 due to the SARS epidemic, in 2009-2010 due to the economic crisis, and in 2019-2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were also observed. Data suggested a relatively greater crude SR among the elderly (vs. young people), in males (vs. females), and in people living in a rural area (vs. those living in an urban area). SRs tended to rise with age. Joinpoint regression analysis identified joinpoints only for males ages 65-69 and over the age of 85 living in a rural area, suggesting that individuals in these groups are more sensitive to negative stimuli and more likely to commit suicide, necessitating closer attention. The findings from this study should help to make policy and devise measures against suicide in the future.

Analysis of mortality in Parkinson disease in China: Exploration of recent and future trends.

Objectives: Parkinson disease (PD) is the third leading cause of mortality among middle-aged and older individuals in China. This study aimed to explore the trends and distribution features of PD mortality in China from 2013 to 2021 and make predictions for the next few decades. Methods: Relevant data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Surveillance Point system. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate trends. The R software was used to predict future trends. Results: Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PD increased from 0.59 per 100,000 individuals to 1.22 per 100,000 individuals from 2013 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 9.50 (95% CI: 8.24-10.78). The all-age ASMR of PD were higher in male individuals than in female individuals, and ASMR increased with age. The number of deaths and ASMR increased gradually from west to east and from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, ASMR is expected to increase to 2.66 per 100,000 individuals by 2040. Conclusions: The heightened focus on the ASMR of PD among male individuals, urban areas, eastern China, and individuals aged ≥85 years has become a key determinant in further decreasing mortality, thereby exhibiting novel challenges to effective strategies for disease prevention and control.

Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to smoking in the five countries with the highest number of smokers during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Introduction: Smoking increases the risk of various cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study aimed to assess the impact of age, period, and cohort on long-term trends in IHD mortality in China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia, the five countries with the highest number of smokers, from 1990 to 2019. Material and methods: The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the magnitude and direction of trends in smoking-attributable mortality from IHD. Age-period-cohort (APC) studies were used to estimate net drift (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)s), local drift (age-specific EAPCs), and independent trends in age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The analysis revealed a significant downward trend in ASMRs attributable to IHD as a result of smoking in the United States, India, and Russia. Indonesia and China showed an upward trend. Age effects were increasing for both country and sex, with China showing the most significant increase in the older age group; period effects were decreasing in all countries except Indonesia, and cohort effects were increasing only in Indonesia and China. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, mortality from IHD caused by smoking showed a downward trend in these five countries. However, the pattern of increased mortality from IHD in women caused by smoking warrants further study.

[Trends in Oncomelania hupensis distribution in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 based on the Joinpoint regression model].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in Oncomelania hupensis distribution in Wuhan City, Hubei Province from 2003 to 2022, so as to provide insights into precision schistosomiasis control. METHODS: Data pertaining to O. hupensis snail survey in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 were collected. The trends in the proportion of areas with snail habitats, actual area with snail habitats, mean density of living snails and prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in snails were evaluated in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 with the slope of trend curve (ß), annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using a Joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in Wuhan City in 2005 and 2015, with a rise during the period from 2003 to 2005 (ß1 = 5.93, t = 1.280, P > 0.05), a decline from 2005 to 2015 (ß2 = -0.88, t = -2.074, P > 0.05) and a rise from 2015 to 2022 (ß3 = 1.46, t = -2.356, P < 0.05). During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in islet endemic areas of Wuhan City in 2006 and 2015, with no significant differences in the trends from 2003 to 2006 (ß1 = 4.64, t = 1.888, P > 0.05) or from 2006 to 2015 (ß2 = -1.45, t = -2.143, P > 0.05), and with a tendency towards a rise from 2015 to 2022 (ß3 = 2.04, t = -3.100, P < 0.05). During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in inner embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City in 2012 and 2020, with a tendency towards a decline from 2003 to 2012 (ß1 = -0.39, t = -4.608, P < 0.05) and with no significant differences in the trends from 2012 to 2020 (ß2 = 0.03, t = 0.245, P > 0.05) and from 2020 to 2022 (ß3 = 1.38, t = 1.479, P > 0.05). During the period from 2003 to 2022, the actual area with snail habitats all appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City, and in islet and inner embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (AAPC = -2.39%, -5.75% and -2.35%, all P values < 0.05). The mean density of living snails reduced from 0.087 snails/0.1 m2 in 2003 to 0.027 snails/0.1 m2 in 2022 in Wuhan City, with a significant difference in the tendency towards the decline (APC = AAPC = -11.47%, P < 0.05). The annual mean decline rate of the mean density of living snails was 17.36% in outside embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = -17.36%, P < 0.05), and there was no significant difference in the trends in the mean density of living snails in islet endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = -0.97%, P > 0.05). In addition, the prevalence of S. japonicum infection in snails appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = -12.45%, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of areas with snail habitats, actual area with snail habitats, mean density of living snails and prevalence of S. japonicum infection in snails all appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022. Intensified snail control, modification of snail habitats, shrinking of areas with snails and implementation of grazing prohibition in snail-infested settings are required, in order to facilitate the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination in Wuhan City.

Global Trends in the Incidence of Anxiety Disorders From 1990 to 2019: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders (ADs) are the most common mental illness with high prevalence, chronicity, and comorbidity. Despite rapid economic and cultural development, the global incidence of ADs continues to increase, with predominance in male individuals. OBJECTIVE: To address the above issues, we analyzed the dynamic trends of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs from 1990 to 2019 and their different effects on age, period, and birth cohort and predicted the future trend of AD incidence. METHODS: The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. A joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change in AD incidence, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence of ADs from 2020 to 2044. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate of ADs increased by 1.06% for both sexes, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) decreased by 0.12%. Joinpoint regression indicated that increments in average annual percent changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (0.068 vs 0.012) and ASDR (0.035 vs -0.015) for ADs globally were higher among male individuals than female individuals. The age-period-cohort analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of the incidence and DALYs of ADs among people of different sexes increased with age in adolescence and middle age and then decreased. For the period effect, the RR of incidence decreased, whereas the RR of DALYs increased in both sexes. Moreover, the RR of the incidence gradually increased and DALYs slowly decreased with birth year for both male and female individuals. New cases of ADs in male individuals are predicted to increase in the coming 25 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided the changing trend of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs in the past 3 decades, indicating that early prevention and effective control cannot be ignored. We analyzed the age-period-cohort effect of potential trends in ADs and predicted future incidence trends. The results suggest that we should take active intervention measures, focusing on high-risk groups and developing effective management and control policies to reduce the global burden of disease.

The trend of lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 and lymphoma incidence trend prediction from 2018 to 2035: a log-linear regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to explore the incidence characteristics and trend prediction of lymphoma from 2005 to 2035, and to provide data basis for the prevention and control of lymphoma in China. Method: The data on lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect time trends. Age-period-cohort models were conducted to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the lymphoma incidence. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lymphoma incidence trends from 2018 to 2035. Results: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma was 6.26/100,000, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 4.11/100,000, with an AAPC of 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3%, 2.5%]. The ASIR was higher in men and urban areas than in women and rural areas, respectively. The age effect showed that the incidence risk of lymphoma increased with age. In the period effect, the incidence risk of lymphoma in rural areas decreased first and then increased with 2010 as the cutoff point. The overall risk of lymphoma incidence was higher in the cohort before the 1970-1974 birth cohort than in the cohort after. From 2018 to 2035, the lymphoma incidence in men, women, and urban areas will show an upward trend. Conclusion: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma showed an increasing trend, and was different in regions, genders, and age groups in China. It will show an upward trend from 2018 to 2035. These results are helpful for the formulation and adjustment of lymphoma prevention, control, and management strategies, and have important reference significance for the treatment of lymphoma in China.

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.

Background: This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years. Results: Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027. Conclusions: Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Detecting the effects of opencast mining on ecosystem services value in arid and semi-arid areas based on time-series remote sensing images and Google Earth Engine (GEE).

Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) are the various beneficial functions and products that natural ecosystems provide to humans, and are important indicators for evaluating ecosystem conditions and human well-being. Opencast mining is one of the human activities that severely damage the surface environment, but its long-term impact on ecosystem services lacks systematic assessment. This study takes the Ordos opencast mining area as an example, and calculates the value of ESV from 1990 to 2020 based on the Google Earth Engine platform. Mann-Kendall Tau-b with Sen's Method (Sen + mk test) and Joinpoint regression model were used to analyzes its spatiotemporal variation characteristics. Further revealed the impacts of opencast mining on ESV as well as the trend of ESV changes. The results show that: (1) The dynamic ESV levels in the study area fluctuated considerably from 1990 to 2020 with an overall decreasing trend of 89.45%. (2) Among nine types ecosystem services, most of them were significantly different (p < 0.001) between mining areas and control areas, with biodiversity protection (BP), climate regulation (CR), gas regulation (GR), soil formation and retention (SFR), water supply (WS) and waste treatment (WT) showed a significant decrease between 1990 and 2020. (3) In the past 30 years, the ESV of the study area showed an overall improvement trend, where the improved area accounted for 48.45% of the total area of the study area. However, the degraded area also accounted for 21.28, and 17.19% of the area belonged to severe degradation. With 67% of the significantly degraded areas distributed within mining concessions. (4) The trend of ESV changes in the mining impact areas and the control area showed significant differences. The ESV of the control area increased continuously, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.7(95%CI:0.50 ~ 0.9, P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2020; while the ESV of the mining impact areas first stabilized and then decreased significantly, with an AAPC of - 0.2(95%CI:- 0.3 ~ - 0.1,P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2020. This study provides scientific support for formulating ecosystem management, restoration plans, and payment for ecosystem service policies, which is conducive to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human well-being.

Trends in maternal and child health in China and its urban and rural areas from 1991 to 2020: a joinpoint regression model.

The long-term trends in maternal and child health (MCH) in China and the national-level factors that may be associated with these changes have been poorly explored. This study aimed to assess trends in MCH indicators nationally and separately in urban and rural areas and the impact of public policies over a 30‒year period. An ecological study was conducted using data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR), and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) nationally and separately in urban and rural areas in China from 1991 to 2020. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and mortality differences between urban and rural areas. From 1991 to 2020, maternal and child mortalities in China gradually declined (national AAPC [95% CI]: NMRs - 7.7% [- 8.6%, - 6.8%], IMRs - 7.5% [- 8.4%, - 6.6%], U5MRs - 7.5% [- 8.5%, - 6.5%], MMRs - 5.0% [- 5.7%, - 4.4%]). However, the rate of decline nationally in child mortality slowed after 2005, and in maternal mortality after 2013. For all indicators, the decline in mortality was greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The AAPCs in rate differences between rural and urban areas were - 8.5% for NMRs, - 8.6% for IMRs, - 7.7% for U5MRs, and - 9.6% for MMRs. The AAPCs in rate ratios (rural vs. urban) were - 1.2 for NMRs, - 2.1 for IMRs, - 1.7 for U5MRs, and - 1.9 for MMRs. After 2010, urban‒rural disparity in MMR did not diminish and in NMR, IMR, and U5MR, it gradually narrowed but persisted. MCH indicators have declined at the national level as well as separately in urban and rural areas but may have reached a plateau. Urban‒rural disparities in MCH indicators have narrowed but still exist. Regular analyses of temporal trends in MCH are necessary to assess the effectiveness of measures for timely adjustments.

Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019.

Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer. Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020.

Objective: To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years. Methods: Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model. Results: From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively. Conclusions: From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.

Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990-2021.

Background: The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China. Methods: The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC). Results: Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population. Conclusions: The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.