Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau.

Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change are interconnected factors that affect the ecological environment. However, there is a lack of quantification of the impacts of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). To fill this knowledge gap and understand the current and future challenges facing the MP's land ecological system, we conducted an evaluation and prediction of the effects of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk using the landscape loss index model and random forest method, considering eight SSP-RCP coupling scenarios. Firstly, we selected MCD12Q1 as the optimal LULC product for studying landscape changes on the MP, comparing it with four other LULC products. We analyzed the diverging patterns of LULC change over the past two decades and observed significant differences between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The latter experienced more intense and extensive LULC change during this period, despite similar climate changes. Secondly, we assessed changes in landscape ecological risk and identified the main drivers of these changes over the past two decades using a landscape index model and random forest method. The highest-risk zone has gradually expanded, with a 30% increase compared to 2001. Lastly, we investigated different characteristics of LULC change under different scenarios by examining future LULC products simulated by the FLUS model. We also simulated the dynamics of landscape ecological risks under these scenarios and proposed an adaptive development strategy to promote sustainable development in the MP. In terms of the impact of climate change on landscape ecological risk, we found that under the same SSP scenario, increasing RCP emission concentrations significantly increased the areas with high landscape ecological risk while decreasing areas with low risk. By integrating quantitative assessments and scenario-based modeling, our study provides valuable insights for informing sustainable land management and policy decisions in the region.

Landscape transition-induced ecological risk modeling using GIS and remote sensing techniques: a case of Saint Martin Island, Bangladesh.

Uncontrolled human activity and nature are causing the deterioration of Saint Martin Island, Bangladesh's only tropical island, necessitating sustainable land use strategies and ecological practices. Therefore, the present study measures the land use/cover transition from 1974 to 2021, predicts 2032 and 2042, and constructs the spatiotemporal features of the Landscape Ecological Risk Index based on land use changes. The study utilized Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) on Landsat images from 1974, 1988, 2001, 2013, and Sentinel 2B in 2021, achieving ≥ 80% accuracy. The MLP-MC approach was also used to predict 2032 and 2042 LULC change patterns. The eco-risk index was developed using landscape disturbance and vulnerability indices, Bayesian Kriging interpolation, and spatial autocorrelations to indicate spatial clustering. The research found that settlements increased from 2.06 to 28.62 ha between 1974 and 2021 and would cover 41.22 ha in 2042, causing considerable losses in agricultural areas, waterbodies, sand, coral reefs, and vegetation. The area under study showed a more uniform and homogenous environment as Shannon's diversity and evenness scores decreased. The ecological risk of Saint Martin Island increased from 4.31 to 31.05 ha between 1974 and 2042 due to natural and human factors like erosion, tidal bores, population growth, coral mining, habitat destruction, and intensive agricultural practices and tourism, primarily in Nazrul Para, Galachipa, and Western Dakhin Para. The findings will benefit St. Martin Island stakeholders and policymakers by providing insights into current and potential landscape changes and land eco-management.

Spatiotemporal evolution of land cover changes and landscape ecological risk assessment in the Yellow River Basin, 2015-2020.

The Yellow River Basin (YRB), which has faced severe ecological issues since ancient times, is one of the largest and most difficult-to-govern basins in the world. Recently, all provincial governments within the basin have individually enacted a series of measures to protect the Yellow River; however, the lack of central governance has inhibited efforts. Since 2019, the government has comprehensively managed the YRB, improving the governance to unprecedented levels; however, evaluations of the YRB's overall ecological status remain lacking. Using high-resolution data from 2015 to 2020, this study illustrated major land cover transitions, evaluated the correlated overall ecological status of the YRB via the landscape ecological risk index, and analyzed the relationship between risk and landscape structure. The results showed that the (1) main land cover types in the YRB in 2020 are farmland (17.58%), forestland (31.96%), and grassland (41.42%), with urban land accounting for 4.21%. Some social factors were significantly related to changes in major land cover types (e.g., from 2015 to 2020, forest and urban lands have increased by 2.27% and 10.71%, grassland and farmland decreased by 2.58% and 0.63%, respectively). (2) Landscape ecological risk improved, albeit with fluctuations (high in the northwest, low in the southeast). (3) Ecological restoration and governance were imbalanced since no obvious changes were observed in the western source region of the Qinghai Province (Yellow River). (4) Finally, positive impacts of artificial re-greening showed slight lags as the detected improvements in NDVI were not recorded for approximately 2 years. These results can facilitate environmental protection and improve planning policies.

An improved approach for evaluating landscape ecological risks and exploring its coupling coordination with ecosystem services.

The rapid urbanization has accelerated the destruction of regional ecosystems, triggering ecological risks and threatening sustainable development. Landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation is an effective tool to mitigate such negative impacts. However, the existing evaluation systems exhibit certain subjectivity. Therefore, an improved LER evaluation method was proposed, which incorporates ecosystem services (ESs) to characterize landscape vulnerability. The method was validated using the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRDUA) as the study area. The results showed that the optimal grain size and extent for landscape pattern analysis in the PRDUA were determined to be 150 m and 6km × 6 km, respectively. The comparison results with the traditional LER evaluation method demonstrated the improved method's superior rationality and reliability. The hotspot analysis based on the Getis-Ord Gi* method revealed that the hotspots of LER were mainly concentrated in the densely populated areas of the south-central region of the PRDUA. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) between LERs and ESs showed four different levels of development in both temporal and spatial dimensions, generally dominated by moderately balanced development and lagging ESs, reflecting the unbalanced ecological environment and socio-economic development of the PRDUA. It is recommended that the ecosystems in the PRDUA be managed and protected separately according to the delineated Ecological Protection Area (EPA), Urban Built-up Area (UBA), and Urban Ecological Boundary Area (UEBA). This study can provide an important reference for regional ecosystem conservation and management.

Integrating ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk into adaptive management: Insights from a western mountain-basin area, China.

There is an increasing interest in introducing ecosystem services (ESs) and landscape ecological risk (LER) into environmental policies and governance. Yet, we know little about how to integrate LER into real decision-making and ESs management. Using the ESs valuation method and the models of InVEST and LER, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of cropland food production, carbon storage, water yield, biodiversity index and LER of Bailongjiang watershed (BLJW), China in 1990, 2002 and 2014, and the relationship between them. We found clear spatial differences in both ESs and LER levels in BLJW during the study period. The cropland food production service kept rising, and the areas of high yield mainly distributed in the loessal regions of BLJW with intensive human population. The carbon storage, water yield and biodiversity index first decreased and then increased. The LER was higher in the areas along the valleys with low elevation and intensive human activities. The regional ecological zoning based on overlay analysis of ESs with LER is effective for providing interactive spatial knowledge for adaptive landscape management. Our results illustrate the integrative approach on linking landscape ecological risk with ecosystem services is a comprehensive and helpful methodology for both regional risk reduction and ecosystem services enhancement at landscape scale.

Study on landscape ecological risk assessment of Hooded Crane breeding and overwintering habitat.

Xinqing Wetland and Shengjin Lake Wetland are the main habitats of Hooded Crane in China. However, in recent years, the irrational land use situation of occupied wetlands has occurred frequently, resulting in the destruction of the breeding of the Hooded Crane population and the destruction of the wintering habitat. The paper takes Xinqing Wetland and Shengjin Lake Wetland as the research area, and uses landscape ecology and geostatistics as the theoretical basis to reveal the changes of land landscape in the study area, and analyze the main breeding and wintering habitat types of Hooded Crane. The landscape ecological risk assessment model is constructed by the landscape pattern index method, and the ecological risk in the study area is divided into five levels: extremely low ecological risk, low ecological risk, medium ecological risk, high ecological risk and extremely high ecological risk. The landscape ecological risk of the study area is analyzed from the aspects of single landscape type, spatial distribution characteristics and time series changes. Overall, from 1986 to 2018, the landscape ecological risks of Xinqing Wetland and Shengjin Lake Wetland all showed an upward trend, both from the low ecological risk level in 1986 to the middle ecological risk level in 2018. The ecological risk value of Xinqing Wetland increased from 0.3777 in 1986 to 0.5882 in 2018; the ecological risk value of Shengjin Lake wetland landscape increased from 0.2706 in 1986 to 0.5709 in 2018. The growth rate of the Shengjin Lake wetland is higher than that of the Xinqing Wetland. In order to better protect the ecological environment of the wetland and protect the habitat of the Hooded Crane, this paper will propose corresponding suggestions and countermeasures.

A novel quantity assessment of landscape ecological risk using human-nature driving mechanism for sustainable society.

The rapid advancement of global economic integration and urbanization has severely damaged the stability of the ecological environment and hindered the ecological carbon sink capacity. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Loess Plateau from 2010 to 2020. This was examined under the driving mechanism of human and natural dual factors. We combined the random forest algorithm with the Markov chain to jointly simulate and predict the development trend of LER in 2030. From 2010 to 2020, LER on the Loess Plateau showed a distribution pattern with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. Under the interaction of human and natural factors, annual precipitation exerted the strongest constraint on LER. The driving of land use and natural factors significantly influenced the spatial differentiation of the LER, with a q-value >0.30. In all three projected scenarios for 2030, there was an increase in construction land area and a significant reduction in cultivated land area. The urban development scenario showed the greatest expansion of high-risk areas, with a 5.29 % increase. Conversely, the ecological protection scenario showed a 1.53 % increase in high-risk areas. The findings have provided a reference for ecological risk prevention and control, and sustainable development of the ecological environment in arid regions.

Correlations between ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk and its spatial heterogeneity in Jilin Province, China.

Exploring the correlations between ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk and the driving factors of their spatial variations is crucial for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable human well-being. We carried out a grid resampling size of 5 km×5 km assessment units of Jilin Pro-vince based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. We quantitatively evaluated the landscape ecological risk and ESV, and analyzed their spatial-temporal variations. Employing bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and the geographical detector models, we examined the correlation between the landscape ecological risk and ESV and explored the driving factors for their spatial variations. The results showed that ESV in Jilin Province decreased from 385.895 billion yuan to 378.211 billion yuan during 2000-2020. The eastern region was dominated by extremely low risk, medium risk, and low risk areas. In contrast, the western region was mainly composed of extremely high risk and high risk areas. There was a significant negative correlation and spatial negative correlation between landscape ecological risk and ESV in Jilin Province. Human activity and land use type were the important driving factors for spatial differentiation in both landscape ecological risk and ESV. Our findings suggested that scientific land use regulation and appropriate control of human activities are critically needed to optimize Jilin Province's ecological environment.

Spatio-temporal variations and multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk in the drylands of the Yellow River Basin.

Over the past decades, the drylands of the Yellow River Basin (YRBD) have undergone profound changes in landscape patterns and ecological dynamics, significantly impacting regional sustainable development. To assess the spatio-temporal variations of ecological risk in the YRBD and provide guidance for sustainable regional development, we constructed a coupled Land Use-Landscape Ecological Risk Model-Geographical Detector-PLUS framework for the assessment, analysis, and simulation of dryland landscape ecological risk (LER). The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of built-up land, forest, grassland, and water in the YRBD increased, while the area of unused land and cropland decreased. (2) LER exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, dominated by Sub-low and Low risks. High risk areas were primarily located in the western Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas Low risk areas were prevalent in the Loess Plateau, with an overall decline in risk levels over the 20 years. (3) Water resources, ecological status, and human activities are the main driving factors affecting LER, with the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant over the past 20 years. (4) Under three development scenarios in 2030, the LER is projected to further decrease, although the impact of these scenarios varies across different research sub-regions. Notably, the Ecological Priority Scenario emerges as more effective in mitigating regional LER. (5) Developing precise land use policies tailored to regional characteristics, continuously implementing ecological restoration projects, strengthening water resource management, and enhancing monitoring capabilities are effective ways to reduce LER in the YRBD. This study systematically quantified the impact of different development scenarios on LER in the YRBD, revealing its spatio-temporal characteristics, and emphasized the importance of planning guidance, ecological restoration, and risk monitoring to align regional development with ecological protection. The findings provide scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development in the YRBD and other drylands, offering valuable insights for global dryland ecological risk management.

Construction of ecological security pattern of arid area based on landscape ecological risk assessment: a case study of the Wu-Chang-Shi urban agglomeration.

The construction of ecological security pattern (ESP) holds paramount importance in ensuring regional environment sustainability. This study introduces an innovative approach to ESP construction grounded in landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment, with Wu-Chang-Shi urban agglomeration in Xinjiang, China, serving as a case study. Initially, LER within the area was evaluated using the LER Index (LERI) method. Subsequently, the Geodetector model was employed to discern the relationship between multi-source data and LER. Furthermore, ecological resistance and corridors were delineated utilizing the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Lastly, the corridors were optimized using the gravity model, finalizing the ESP construction. Study results reveal that LER was always fluctuating from 1990 to 2010, and tended to stabilize from 2010 to 2020. Factor detection underscores the predominant influence of land use on LER, followed by elevation and vegetation distribution. The ESP shows the imperative for improving connectivity of the natural areas that are fragmented by urban land, highlighting the great significance of the woodland-originating corridors. Finally, strategies are proposed to enhance woodland and water coverage, boost landscape diversity in nature reserves, and prioritize ecological conservation in corridor regions. In summation, the study furnishes a framework for analyzing arid regions in Eurasia. Furthermore, the research idea of evaluation-analysis-remodeling also offers insights into environmental management in developing areas with more diverse climate types.

Future land use simulation model-based landscape ecological risk prediction under the localized shared socioeconomic pathways in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China.

Landscape ecological risk (LER) is an effective index to identify regional ecological risk and measure regional ecological security. The localized shared socioeconomic pathways (LSSPs) can provide multi-scenario parameters of social and economic development for LER research. The research of LER under LSSPs is of scientific significance and practical value in curbing the breeding and spread of LER risk areas. In this study, land-cover raster files from 2010 to 2020 were used as the foundational data. Future land use simulation (FLUS), regression, and Markov chain models were used to predict the land cover patterns under the five LSSP scenarios in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB) in 2030. Thus, an evaluation model was established, and the LER of the watershed was evaluated. We found that the rate of land cover change (LCC) in the XJRB between 2010 and 2020 had a higher intensity (increasing at an average of 18.89% per decade) than that projected under the LSSPs for 2020-2030 (averaging an increase of 8.58% per decade). Among the growth rates of all land use types in the XJRB, that of urban land was the highest (33.3%). From 2010 to 2030, the LER in the XJRB was classified as lower risk (33.73%), lowest risk (33.11%), and moderate risk (24.13%) for each decade. Finally, the LER exhibited significant heterogeneity among different scenarios. Specifically, the percentages of regions characterized by the highest (9.77%) and higher LER (9.75%) were notably higher than those in the remaining scenarios. The higher-level risk area under the localized SSP1 demonstrated a clear spatial reduction compared to those of the other four scenarios. In addition, in order to facilitate the differential management and control of LER by relevant departments, risk zoning was carried out at the county level according to the prediction results of LER. And we got three types of risk management regions for the XJRB under the LSSPs.

[Spatial and temporal variations of landscape ecological risk in the dry and hot valley of the Jinsha River during 2000-2020]. / 2000­2020年金沙江干热河谷景观生态风险的时空变化.

Scientific assessment of landscape ecological risk in ecologically fragile areas of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is of great significance to regional ecological regulation and construction of the Yangtze River ecological security barrier. With the dry-hot valley area of Jinsha River in Yunnan Province as the research area, we constructed a landscape ecological risk evaluation model, and analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of regional landscape ecological risk. The results showed that the average values of landscape ecological risk index (LER) in the study area were 0.414, 0.398, and 0.462 in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively. The LER value of the whole region had reached a higher risk level by 2020. In 2000 and 2010, the landscape ecological risk zones of each level were staggered, and the high-risk zones showed a centralized distribution in 2020. During the two decades, the average LER of each section in the study area was around 0.42, which was close to the high risk level, indicating high landscape ecological risk level. The area of middle and low risk zones had decreased, while the area of high risk zone had significantly increased. The area of high risk zone in the western and middle sections was much higher than that in the eastern section. The area with significant changes of landscape ecological risk accounted for about 55% of the total study area, with obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics of significant increase and decrease of risk. The competition between government-led ecological management policies and measures and market-led land use activities was the main cause of landscape ecological risk variations in this region. In the future, the driving mechanism of climate change coupled with human activities on global and local landscape ecological risk changes in the study area should be uncovered to effectively cope with regional ecological risks.

Landscape Dynamics and Ecological Risk Assessment of Cold Temperate Forest Moose Habitat in the Great Khingan Mountains, China.

The change in habitat pattern is one of the key factors affecting the survival of the moose population. The study of the habitat landscape pattern is the key to protecting the Chinese cold-temperate forest moose population and monitoring the global distribution of moose. Through the ecological risk assessment of the moose habitat landscape pattern in a cold-temperate forest, we hope to assess the strength of habitat resistance under stress factors. This study provides a theoretical basis for the protection of the moose population in the cold-temperate forest in China and the establishment of the cold-temperate forest national park. In the study, the MaxEnt model, landscape index calculation and ecological risk assessment model construction were used to analyze the field survey and infrared camera monitoring data from April 2014 to January 2023. The habitat suitability layer of the moose population in the Nanwenghe National Nature Reserve of the Great Khingan Mountains was calculated, and the range of the moose habitat was divided based on the logical threshold of the model. The landscape pattern index of the moose habitat was calculated by Fragstats software and a landscape ecological risk assessment model was established to analyze the landscape pattern and ecological risk dynamic changes of the moose habitat in 2015 and 2020. The results showed that under the premise of global warming, the habitat landscape contagion index decreased by 4.53 and the split index increased by 4.86 from 2015 to 2020. In terms of ecological risk: the area of low ecological risk areas increased by 0.88%; the area of medium ecological risk areas decreased by 1.11%; and the area of high ecological risk areas increased by 0.23%. The fragmentation risk of the landscape pattern of the moose habitat tends to increase, the preferred patch type is dispersed, the degree of aggregation is low, and the risk of patch type transformation increases. The middle and high ecological risk areas are mainly concentrated in the river area and its nearby forests, showing a fine and scattered distribution. Under the interference of global warming and human activities, the fragmentation trend of the moose habitat in the study area is increasing, and the habitat quality is declining, which is likely to cause moose population migration. For this reason, the author believes that the whole cold temperate forest is likely to face the risk of increasing the transformation trend of dominant patch types in the cold-temperate coniferous forest region mainly caused by global warming, resulting in an increase in the risk of habitat fragmentation. While the distribution range of moose is reduced, it has a significant impact on the diversity and ecological integrity of the whole cold-temperate forest ecosystem. This study provides theoretical references for further research on the impact of climate warming on global species distribution and related studies. It is also helpful for humans to strengthen their protection awareness of forest and river areas and formulate reasonable protection and sustainable development planning of cold-temperate forests. Finally, it provides theoretical references for effective monitoring and protection of cold-temperate forests and moose population dynamics.

Spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of landscape ecological risks and their drivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The changes in landscape ecological risk (LER) of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) profoundly affect the ecological environment of China and the world. We measured the evolution of the LER level and its driving factors through the past 40 years using meteorological data, population density information, and land use data acquired through remote sensing monitoring techniques spanning the years 1980 to 2020. Several key findings were derived: (1) The overall LER of the QTP was at a medium level during 1980-2020, with a fluctuating but decreasing overall trend. (2) Between 1980 and 2020, the spatial distribution of LER in the QTP was high in the west and low in the east; the LER level of the six provinces (districts) showed an overall decrease. (3) During 2000-2020, the LER of the QTP was influenced by a complex mechanism of action. The interactions between different influencing factors were mainly non-linear reinforcement and two-factor reinforcement, and factor interaction significantly enhanced the effect on LER. The findings are of significance for the prevention, control, and management of LER in the QTP.

Ecosystem services, landscape pattern, and landscape ecological risk zoning in China.

Ecosystem services represent a bridge between natural ecosystems and human well-being and are closely associated with landscape ecological risk (LER). Delimiting reasonable LER areas is important for ecosystem protection, and it is essential to link ecosystem services to LER zoning. However, only a few studies have achieved this, and the zoning accuracy of LER remains poorly understood. Therefore, in this study, we evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) and LER index using the equivalent value method and landscape pattern index via the remote sensing of land use data at the county level in China in 2000-2015. We applied bivariate spatial autocorrelation as well as the grey correlation analysis model to analyse the ESV-LER spatial relationships and developed a general framework to improve the accuracy of LER zoning. We found that the average ESV increased from $761.42 thousand/km2 in 2000 to $766.16 thousand/km2 in 2015, while the LER index continuously decreased in China. We also discerned a significant negative correlation between ESV and LER (p < 0.001), whereas approximately 750 counties in China exhibited high ESV and low LER indices during the study period. The final LER zoning revealed that the high-LER areas in China were mainly located in the plain areas, and the proportion of counties with high LER levels increased from 17.97% in 2000 to 26.56% in 2015. Overall, our results have important implications for ecological security, future landscape planning and design, and ecologically sustainable development in China.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control.

This study applied territorial spatial planning control to a land use multi-scenario simulation in Changde, China, and measured the landscape ecological risk response. It embedded five planning control schemes, respectively, involving inertial development, urban expansion size quantity control, ecological spatial structure control, land use zoning control, and comprehensive control. Findings show that: (1) Woodland and arable land in Changde occupy 31.10% and 43.35% of land use, respectively, and constitute the main functional space of the research area. The scale of construction land in Changde has enlarged continuously, with ecological space represented by woodland and water constantly squeezed and occupied. (2) Comprehensive control has the most remarkable restraining effect on the disordered spread of construction land, while ecological space structure control is the most effective way to control ecological land shrinkage. (3) The overall landscape ecological risk index expanded over 2009-2018, presenting an S-type time evolution curve of "sharp increase-mitigation". Landscape ecological risk presents a single-core, double-layer circle structure with the north and east regions as the core, attenuating to the periphery. (4) Landscape ecological risk under land use zoning control increased significantly more than in other scenarios. Comprehensive control best prevented landscape ecological risk and restrained the disorderly expansion of construction land.

[Spatial relationship between landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value in Fujian Province, China during 1980-2020]. / 1980­2020å¹´ç¦å»ºçœæ™¯è§‚ç”Ÿæ€é£Žé™©ä¸Žç”Ÿæ€ç³»ç»ŸæœåŠ¡ä»·å€¼çš„ç©ºé—´å ³ç³».

Understanding the relationship between landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value (ESV) is important for building an ecological security pattern and enhancing human well-being. Taking Fujian Province as the research area, based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 1980, 2000, and 2020, we carried out a grid resampling size of 5 km × 5 km in the study area, quantitatively evaluated the landscape ecological risk and ESV, and analyzed the spatio-temporal variations. The spatial correlation between landscape ecological risk and ESV was investigated by using the bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and the spatial regression models. The results showed that the landscape ecological risk level in Fujian Province changed from medium level to low level, with the situation being improved. The landscape ecological risk level was generally higher in the east region and lower in the west region. ESV generally declined. The functional structure of each ecosystem was relatively stable. ESV spread from high to low with high value area as the core. There was a significant negative spatial correlation between landscape ecological risk and ESV. Landscape ecological risk had a negative effect on ecosystem total ser-vice value, with the strongest impact on the supply function.

Identification of Priority Conservation Areas for Natural Heritage Sites Integrating Landscape Ecological Risks and Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Bogda, China.

The conservation of World Natural Heritage Sites has become a global concern. The identification of priority conservation areas can preserve the value of heritage sites while promoting sustainable development, which is important for balancing the conservation and development of heritage sites. This paper proposes an integrated framework for the identification of priority conservation areas for natural heritage sites based on landscape ecological risks (LERs) and ecosystem services (ESs), taking the Bogda heritage site in Xinjiang, China as a case study. The innovative approach combined the natural and cultural elements of natural heritage sites and included the following steps: (1) the LER index, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and questionnaire method were adopted to assess the LERs and ESs of Bogda heritage sites during 1990-2018; (2) ordered weighted averaging (OWA) was used to identify conservation priorities by weighing LERs and ESs; and (3) the optimal priority conservation area was determined by comparing the conservation efficiencies under different scenarios. The results revealed that the LER, carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), aesthetic value (AV), and recreational value (RV) showed significant spatiotemporal variation. The most suitable priority conservation area was located at the central forestlands and high-coverage grasslands, with conservation efficiencies of 1.16, 2.91, 1.96, 1.03, and 1.21 for LER, CS, HQ, AV, and RV, respectively. Our study demonstrated that integrating LERs and ESs is a comprehensive and effective approach to identifying conservation priorities for heritage sites. The results can provide decision support for the conservation of the Bogda heritage site and a methodological reference for identifying conservation priorities for natural heritage sites. Furthermore, this study is also an effective application of LERs and ESs in identifying priority conservation areas.

Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island.

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations are focused on regional development and ecological security. Based on these SDGs, quantitative regional landscape ecological risk assessment is significant to realize regional sustainable development. This study took the central mountainous area (CMA) of Hainan Island as the research area, and combined SDGs and a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to analyze multi-scenario land-use change and landscape ecological risk simulation. The study results show that the low ecological risk areas are located in the central hinterland of the CMA, and the high ecological risk areas are located on the northern and southern edges, with strong disturbances from human activities. The construction land in the CMA expanded drastically from 2010 to 2018, mainly invading forestland and grassland, leading to landscape fragmentation, which was the main cause of the increased ecological risk in the CMA landscape. The future multi-scenario simulations for SDGs show that under the scenario of natural development and economic development, the construction land and water area will significantly expand and the forest land will be dramatically reduced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land will be restrained, and the area of forest land will increase. The results showed that the landscape ecological risks in the three simulated scenarios would be higher than in 2018, but the increase in the landscape ecological risks under the ecological protection scenario would be relatively slight. Forest land plays an essential role in maintaining the ecological security of the CMA. The expanding construction land in the CMA has led to landscape fragmentation and increased ecological risk. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the forest land in the CMA. In addition, construction and development should be limited in high-risk areas. Although the adoption of the ecological conservation scenario favors regional sustainability, it is still necessary to improve ecological protection policies such as ecological compensation to ensure the realization of other SDGs.

Assessing the Terrain Gradient Effect of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Dianchi Lake Basin of China Using Geo-Information Tupu Method.

The assessment of landscape ecological risk (LER) in different terrain gradients is beneficial to ecological environmental protection and risk management in different terrain gradients. Due to the impact of urban expansion, the landscape pattern of the Dianchi Lake basin (DLB) changed obviously, resulting in significant spatial difference of LER. At present, the LER assessment of the DLB is not clear, and the evolution mechanism of LER in different terrain gradients has not been revealed. Based on the LER assessment model, the geo-information Tupu method, the terrain niche gradient, and distribution index, this paper analyzed the LER and its terrain gradient effect in the DLB of China. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Since 1995, the land use type has mainly changed from grassland and cultivated land to construction land in the DLB of China. (2) The LERs in the DLB of China were mainly low, med low, and med high due to the transformation of land use type. The dominance distribution of the low and high LER was obviously constrained by terrain gradient. While the dominance distribution of med-low LER expanded to med-high terrain gradient, the dominance distribution of the med-high LER decreased to med-low terrain gradient. (3) The Tupu LERs were mainly a stable type of "medium" risk and anaphase change type of "med-high to medium" risk. The dominant distribution regions of the stable type, the prophase change type, and the continuous change type were relatively stable; the anaphase and middle change type expanded to the higher terrain gradient, and the repeated change type decreased to the med-high terrain gradient. In the process of ecological risk management and protection in the DLB, attention should be paid to the water area structure and LER control in med-high and high terrain gradients.