Learning Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from Longitudinal Data.

Studies often report estimates of the average treatment effect (ATE). While the ATE summarizes the effect of a treatment on average, it does not provide any information about the effect of treatment within any individual. A treatment strategy that uses an individual's information to tailor treatment to maximize benefit is known as an optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR). Treatment, however, is typically not limited to a single point in time; consequently, learning an optimal rule for a time-varying treatment may involve not just learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary across the characteristics of individuals, but also learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary as relevant circumstances evolve within an individual. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for estimating ODTR from longitudinal observational and clinical trial data for applied researchers. We describe an approach that uses a doubly-robust unbiased transformation of the conditional average treatment effect. We then learn a time-varying ODTR for when to increase buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) dose to minimize return-to-regular-opioid-use among patients with opioid use disorder. Our analysis highlights the utility of ODTRs in the context of sequential decision making: the learned ODTR outperforms a clinically defined strategy.

Tracking neuroinflammatory biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease: a strategy for individualized therapeutic approaches?

BACKGROUND: Recent trials of anti-amyloid-ß (Aß) monoclonal antibodies, including lecanemab and donanemab, in early Alzheimer disease (AD) showed that these drugs have limited clinical benefits and their use comes with a significant risk of serious adverse events. Thus, it seems crucial to explore complementary therapeutic approaches. Genome-wide association studies identified robust associations between AD and several AD risk genes related to immune response, including but not restricted to CD33 and TREM2. Here, we critically reviewed the current knowledge on candidate neuroinflammatory biomarkers and their role in characterizing the pathophysiology of AD. MAIN BODY: Neuroinflammation is recognized to be a crucial and contributing component of AD pathogenesis. The fact that neuroinflammation is most likely present from earliest pre-stages of AD and co-occurs with the deposition of Aß reinforces the need to precisely define the sequence and nature of neuroinflammatory events. Numerous clinical trials involving anti-inflammatory drugs previously yielded unfavorable outcomes in early and mild-to-moderate AD. Although the reasons behind these failures remain unclear, these may include the time and the target selected for intervention. Indeed, in our review, we observed a stage-dependent neuroinflammatory process in the AD brain. While the initial activation of glial cells counteracts early brain Aß deposition, the downregulation in the functional state of microglia occurs at more advanced disease stages. To address this issue, personalized neuroinflammatory modulation therapy is required. The emergence of reliable blood-based neuroinflammatory biomarkers, particularly glial fibrillary acidic protein, a marker of reactive astrocytes, may facilitate the classification of AD patients based on the ATI(N) biomarker framework. This expands upon the traditional classification of Aß ("A"), tau ("T"), and neurodegeneration ("N"), by incorporating a novel inflammatory component ("I"). CONCLUSIONS: The present review outlines the current knowledge on potential neuroinflammatory biomarkers and, importantly, emphasizes the role of longitudinal analyses, which are needed to accurately monitor the dynamics of cerebral inflammation. Such a precise information on time and place will be required before anti-inflammatory therapeutic interventions can be considered for clinical evaluation. We propose that an effective anti-neuroinflammatory therapy should specifically target microglia and astrocytes, while considering the individual ATI(N) status of patients.

Disease activity trajectories in juvenile dermatomyositis from childhood to adulthood.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether there are identifiable subgroups of disease activity trajectory in a population of juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) patients-followed throughout childhood and into adulthood-and determine factors that predict those trajectory groupings. METHODS: This is a retrospective, longitudinal inception cohort of patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, largely JDM. We sought to identify baseline factors that predict membership into different groups (latent classes) of disease activity trajectory. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients (64% females), with median age at diagnosis of 7.7 years, were analyzed. We studied 4,725 visits (1,471 patient-years). We identified 3 latent classes of longitudinal disease activity, as measured by the modified disease activity score (DASm), with distinct class trajectories predicted by DASm at baseline, and by the changes of DASm from either baseline to 3 months or baseline to 6 months (early response to therapy). In the analysis in which DASm at baseline and the changes of DASm from baseline to 6 months are included as predictors, Class 1 (10%) has persistently high disease activity, Class 2 (34%) is characterized by moderate disease activity, and Class 3 (56%) is characterized by individuals with a high early disease activity but an apparently good response to treatment and long-term low disease activity. CONCLUSION: High early disease activity, and treatment resistance in the first few months, predict a more chronic longitudinal course of JDM.

Youth adversity and trajectories of depression/anxiety symptoms in adolescence in the context of intersectionality in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Youth adversity is associated with persistence of depression and anxiety symptoms. This association may be greater for disadvantaged societal groups (such as females) compared with advantaged groups (e.g. males). Given that persistent symptoms are observed across a range of disadvantaged, minoritized, and neurodivergent groups (e.g. low compared with high socio-economic status [SES]), the intersection of individual characteristics may be an important moderator of inequality. METHODS: Data from HeadStart Cornwall (N = 4441) was used to assess the effect of youth adversity on combined symptoms of depression and anxiety (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire emotional problems subscale) measured at three time-points in 11-14-year-olds. Latent trajectories and regressions were estimated for eight intersectionality profiles (based on gender, SES, and hyperactivity/inattention), and moderating effects of the individual characteristics and their intersections were estimated. RESULTS: Youth adversity was associated with higher average depression/anxiety symptoms at baseline (11-12-years) across all intersectionality profiles. The magnitude of effects differed across profiles, with suggestive evidence for a moderating effect of youth adversity on change over time in depression/anxiety symptoms attributable to the intersection between (i) gender and SES; and (ii) gender, SES, and hyperactivity/inattention. CONCLUSIONS: The detrimental effects of youth adversity pervade across intersectionality profiles. The extent to which these effects are moderated by intersectionality is discussed in terms of operational factors. The current results provide a platform for further research, which is needed to determine the importance of intersectionality as a moderator of youth adversity on the development of depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescence.

Within-individual relationships between mother-to-infant bonding and postpartum depressive symptoms: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Although the importance of the dynamic intra-individual relationship between mother-to-infant bonding and postpartum depressive symptoms has been widely recognized, the complex interplay between them is not well understood. Furthermore, the potential role of prenatal depressive symptoms and infant temperament in this relationship remains unclear. This study aims to examine the bidirectional influence of mother-to-infant bonding on postpartum depressive symptoms within individuals and to elucidate whether prenatal depressive symptoms and infant temperament would influence deviations from stable individual states. METHODS: Longitudinal data were collected from 433 women in early pregnancy. Of these, 360 participants completed the main questionnaires measuring impaired mother-to-infant bonding and postpartum depressive symptoms at least once during the postpartum period. Data were collected at early and late pregnancy and several postpartum time points: shortly after birth and at one, four, ten, and 18 months postpartum. We also assessed prenatal depressive symptoms and infant temperament. A random-intercept cross-lagged panel model was used. RESULTS: Within-individual variability in mother-to-infant bonding, especially anger and rejection, significantly predicted subsequent postpartum depressive symptoms. However, the inverse relationship was not significant. Additionally, prenatal depressive symptoms and difficult infant temperament were associated with greater within-individual variability in impaired mother-to-infant bonding and postpartum depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that the within-individual relationship between mother-to-infant bonding and postpartum depressive symptoms is likely non-bidirectional. The significance of the findings is underscored by the potential for interventions aimed at improving mother-to-infant bonding to alleviate postpartum depressive symptoms, suggesting avenues for future research and practice.

Detecting adolescent depression through passive monitoring of linguistic markers in smartphone communication.

BACKGROUND: Cross sectional studies have identified linguistic correlates of major depressive disorder (MDD) in smartphone communication. However, it is unclear whether monitoring these linguistic characteristics can detect when an individual is experiencing MDD, which would facilitate timely intervention. METHODS: Approximately 1.2 million messages typed into smartphone social communication apps (e.g. texting, social media) were passively collected from 90 adolescents with a range of depression severity over a 12-month period. Sentiment (i.e. positive vs. negative valence of text), proportions of first-person singular pronouns (e.g. 'I'), and proportions of absolutist words (e.g. 'all') were computed for each message and converted to weekly aggregates temporally aligned with weekly MDD statuses obtained from retrospective interviews. Idiographic, multilevel logistic regression models tested whether within-person deviations in these linguistic features were associated with the probability of concurrently meeting threshold for MDD. RESULTS: Using more first-person singular pronouns in smartphone communication relative to one's own average was associated with higher odds of meeting threshold for MDD in the concurrent week (OR = 1.29; p = .007). Sentiment (OR = 1.07; p = .54) and use of absolutist words (OR = 0.99; p = .90) were not related to weekly MDD. CONCLUSIONS: Passively monitoring use of first-person singular pronouns in adolescents' smartphone communication may help detect MDD, providing novel opportunities for early intervention.

Developmental trajectories of child and adolescent emotional problems: associations with early adult alcohol use behaviors.

BACKGROUND: Whether emotional problems during childhood and adolescence are longitudinally associated with adult alcohol use behaviors is unclear. This study examined associations between developmental trajectories of emotional problems and early adult alcohol use behaviors, while considering co-occurring conduct problems, developmental change/timing, sex differences, and potential confounds. METHODS: Participants were from the Twins Early Development Study (analytic N = 19,908 individuals). Emotional and conduct problems were measured by parent reports at child ages 4, 7, and 9 years and via self-reports at ages 9, 11, and 16 years on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Alcohol use behaviors (alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems) were self-reported by the twins on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test at age 22 years. Piecewise latent growth curve models described nonlinear developmental trajectories of emotional and conduct problems from ages 4 to 16. At age 22, alcohol use was regressed on emotional and conduct problems' intercepts and slopes from piecewise latent growth curve model and sex differences in regression coefficients were tested. Using twin modeling, Cholesky decompositions and direct path models were compared to test whether significant phenotypic associations were best explained by direct phenotypic influences or correlated genetic and environmental influences. RESULTS: Emotional problems had different associations with alcohol-related problems versus alcohol consumption. After accounting for direct influences from conduct problems, emotional problems were not associated with alcohol-related problems, while emotional problems at age 9 were negatively associated with alcohol consumption in males. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, findings did not support emotional problems as prospective risk factors for severe alcohol use above and beyond risks associated with conduct problems. Sex- and age-specific links between emotional problems and alcohol consumption in early adulthood may be worthy of further exploration, particularly as twin analyses improved our confidence that such links may be underpinned by causal mechanisms.

Health, behavior, and social outcomes among offspring of parents with criminal convictions: a register-based study from Sweden.

BACKGROUND: There is currently insufficient understanding of the health and behavior of children whose parents engage in criminal behavior. We examined associations between parental criminal convictions and wide range of offspring health, behavioral, and social outcomes by age 18 in a large, national sample, aiming to get a comprehensive picture of the risks among children of offending parents. METHODS: We studied 1,013,385 individuals born in Sweden between 1987 and 1995, and their parents. Using data from several longitudinal nationwide registers, we investigated parental convictions and 85 offspring outcomes until the end of 2013, grouped into birth-related conditions, psychiatric and somatic disorders, accidents and injuries, mortality, school achievement, violent victimization, and criminality. Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression models were used to examine the associations. The role of genetic factors in intergenerational associations was studied in children-of-siblings analyses. We also examined the co-occurrence of multiple outcomes using Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 223,319 (22.0%) individuals had one parent convicted and 31,241 (3.1%) had both parents convicted during the first 18 years of their life. The strongest associations were found between parental convictions and offspring behavioral problems, substance use disorders, poor school achievement, violent victimization, and criminality, with an approximately 2 to 2.5-fold increased risk in children with one convicted parent and 3- to 4-fold increased risk in children with two convicted parents. The risks were particularly elevated among children of incarcerated parents with a history of violent convictions. The associations appeared to be at least partly explained by genetic influences. Parental convictions were also associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing multiple outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings help to calibrate the risks of a wide range of adverse outcomes associated with parental convictions and may be used to guide prevention efforts and identify key areas for future research.

Predicting the trajectory of non-suicidal self-injury among adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is common among adolescents receiving inpatient psychiatric treatment and the months post-discharge is a high-risk period for self-injurious behavior. Thus, identifying predictors that shape the course of post-discharge NSSI may provide insights into ways to improve clinical outcomes. Accordingly, we used machine learning to identify the strongest predictors of NSSI trajectories drawn from a comprehensive clinical assessment. METHODS: The study included adolescents (N = 612; females n = 435; 71.1%) aged 13-19-years-old (M = 15.6, SD = 1.4) undergoing inpatient treatment. Youth were administered clinical interviews and symptom questionnaires at intake (baseline) and before termination. NSSI frequency was assessed at 1-, 3-, and 6-month follow-ups. Latent class growth analyses were used to group adolescents based on their pattern of NSSI across follow-ups. RESULTS: Three classes were identified: Low Stable (n = 83), Moderate Fluctuating (n = 260), and High Persistent (n = 269). Important predictors of the High Persistent class in our regularized regression models (LASSO) included baseline psychiatric symptoms and comorbidity, past-week suicidal ideation (SI) severity, lifetime average and worst-point SI intensity, and NSSI in the past 30 days (bs = 0.75-2.33). Only worst-point lifetime suicide ideation intensity was identified as a predictor of the Low Stable class (b = -8.82); no predictors of the Moderate Fluctuating class emerged. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a set of intake clinical variables that indicate which adolescents may experience persistent NSSI post-discharge. Accordingly, this may help identify youth that may benefit from additional monitoring and support post-hospitalization.

Age effects on autism heritability and etiological stability of autistic traits.

BACKGROUND: Autism and autistic traits onset in childhood but persist into adulthood. Little is known about how genetic and environmental factors influence autism and autistic traits into adulthood. We aimed to determine age effects on the heritability of clinically diagnosed autism and the etiological stability of autistic traits from childhood to adulthood using twin methods. METHODS: From 23,849 twin pairs in the Swedish Twin Register born between 1959 and 2010, we identified 485 individuals (1.01%, 31.5% female) with a clinical autism diagnosis. We estimated and compared the relative contribution of genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental influences to autism in childhood and adulthood. We further used multivariate twin analysis with four measurement points among 1,348 twin pairs in the longitudinal Twin Study of Child and Adolescent Development to assess the phenotypic and etiological stability of autistic traits - measured with three scales from the Child Behavior Checklist - from childhood to adulthood. RESULTS: Autism heritability was comparable from childhood, (96% [95% CI, 76-99%]) to adulthood (87% [67-96%]). Autistic traits were moderately stable (phenotypic correlation = 0.35-0.61) from childhood to adulthood, and their heritability varied between 52 and 71%. We observed stable as well as newly emerging genetic influences on autistic traits from ages 8-9 to 19-20, and unique nonshared environmental influences at each age. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic factors are important for autism and autistic traits in adulthood and separate genetic studies in adults are warranted.

Neuropsychiatric Symptom Profile in Alzheimer's Disease and Their Relationship With Functional Decline.

OBJECTIVE: Understanding the course of individual neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) and their relationship with function is important for planning targeted interventions for preventing and delaying functional decline. This study aims to disentangle relative contributions of individual NPS on functional decline. METHODS: Longitudinal study of 9,358 well-characterized participants with baseline diagnoses of Mild Cognitive Impairment or AD in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set. Function was measured using the Functional Assessment Questionnaire (FAQ). Clinician judgment of seven common behavioral symptoms were examined simultaneously: apathy-withdrawal, depressed mood, visual or auditory hallucinations, delusions, disinhibition, irritability, and agitation. RESULTS: Apathy was the most common NPS at baseline (33.7%) and throughout follow-up, endorsed by clinicians in 63.7% of visits. Apathy was the most persistent with 36.7% of participants having clinician-endorsed apathy in ≥50% of their visits. Apathy strongly correlated with faster rate of functional decline. Compared to those who never had apathy, baseline FAQ was worse in those with intermittent or persistent/always apathy (intermittent: estimated coefficient ±SE=1.228±0.210, 95% CI=[0.817, 1.639]; persistent/always: 2.354±0.244 (95% CI=[1.876, 2.832], both p <0.001). Over time, rate of functional decline was faster in those with intermittent and persistent/always apathy (intermittent: 0.454±0.091, 95% CI=[0.276, 0.632]; persistent/always: 0.635±0.102, 95% CI=[0.436, 0.835], both p <0.001). Worse agitation, delusions, and hallucinations also correlated with functional decline, but magnitudes of the estimates were smaller. CONCLUSION: Individual NPS may be sensitive targets for tracking longitudinal change in function. The study raises awareness of the need for more comprehensive assessment of functional decline in AD patients with noncognitive symptoms.

Changes in employment status over time in multiple sclerosis following a first episode of central nervous system demyelination, a Markov multistate model study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

Two-Year Longitudinal Outcomes of Subjective Cognitive Decline in Hispanics Compared to Non-hispanic Whites.

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD), considered a preclinical dementia stage, is less understood in Hispanics, a high-risk group for dementia. We investigated SCD to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression risk, as well as baseline and longitudinal features of depressive symptoms, SCD complaints, and objective cognitive performance among Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). METHODS: Hispanic (n = 23) and NHW (n = 165) SCD participants were evaluated at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Evaluations assessed function, depressive symptoms, SCD, and objective cognitive performance. RESULTS: Hispanics were at increased risk of progression to MCI (OR: 6.10, 95% CI 1.09-34.20, P = .040). Hispanic participants endorsed more depressive symptoms at baseline (P = .048) that worsened more longitudinally (OR: 3.16, 95% CI 1.18-8.51, P = .023). Hispanic participants had increased SCD complaints on the Brief Cognitive Rating Scale (BCRS) (ß = .40 SE: .17, P = .023), and in specific BCRS domains: concentration (ß = .13, SE: .07, P = .047), past memory (ß = .13, SE: .06, P = .039) and functional abilities (ß = .10, SE: .05, P = .037). In objective cognitive performance, Hispanic ethnicity associated with decline in MMSE (ß = -.27, SE: .13, P = .039), MoCA (ß = -.80 SE: .34, P = .032), Trails A (ß = 2.75, SE: .89, P = .002), Trails B (ß = 9.18, SE: 2.71, P = .001) and Guild Paragraph Recall Delayed (ß = -.80 SE: .28, P = .005). Conclusions: Hispanic ethnicity associated with a significantly increased risk of 2-year progression of SCD to MCI compared to NHW. This increased risk associated with increased depressive symptoms, distinctive SCD features, and elevated amnestic and non-amnestic objective cognitive decline. This supports further research to refine the assessment of preclinical dementia in this high-risk group.

Racial inequalities in the development of multimorbidity of chronic conditions: results from a Brazilian prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of multimorbidity and its impacts have differentially affected population subgroups. Evidence on its incidence has mainly come from high-income regions, with limited exploration of racial disparities. This study investigated the association between racial groups and the development of multimorbidity and chronic conditions in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: Data from self-reported white, brown (pardos or mixed-race), and black participants at baseline of ELSA-Brasil (2008-2010) who were at risk for multimorbidity were analysed. The development of chronic conditions was assessed through in-person visits and self-reported diagnosis via telephone until the third follow-up visit (2017-2019). Multimorbidity was defined when, at the follow-up visit, the participant had two or more morbidities. Cumulative incidences, incidence rates, and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using Poisson models. RESULTS: Over an 8.3-year follow-up, compared to white participants: browns had a 27% greater incidence of hypertension and obesity; and blacks had a 62% and 45% greater incidence, respectively. Blacks also had 58% more diabetes. The cancer incidence was greater among whites. Multimorbidity affected 41% of the participants, with a crude incidence rate of 57.5 cases per 1000 person-years (ranging from 56.3 for whites to 63.9 for blacks). Adjusted estimates showed a 20% higher incidence of multimorbidity in black participants compared to white participants (IRR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.05-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: Significant racial disparities in the risk of chronic conditions and multimorbidity were observed. Many associations revealed a gradient increase in illness risk according to darker skin tones. Addressing fundamental causes such as racism and racial discrimination, alongside considering social determinants of health, is vital for comprehensive multimorbidity care. Intersectoral, equitable policies are essential for ensuring health rights for historically marginalized groups.

First implantable cardiac defibrillator insertions in New South Wales, 2005-2020: an analysis of linked administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the annual numbers of first ICD insertions in New South Wales during 2005-2020; to examine health outcomes for people who first received ICDs during this period. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked administrative health data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All first insertions of ICDs in NSW, 2005-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual numbers of first ICD insertions, and of emergency department presentations and hospital re-admissions 30 days, 90 days, 365 days after first ICD insertions; all-cause and disease-specific mortality (to ten years after ICD insertion). RESULTS: During 2005-2020, ICDs were first inserted into 16 867 people (18.5 per 100 000 population); their mean age was 65.7 years (standard deviation, 13.5 years; 7376 aged 70 years or older, 43.7%), 13 214 were men (78.3%). The annual number of insertions increased from 791 in 2005 to 1256 in 2016; the first ICD insertion rate increased from 15.5 in 2005 to 18.9 per 100 000 population in 2010, after which the rate was stable until 2019 (19.8 per 100 000 population). Of the 16 778 people discharged alive from hospital after first ICD insertions, 54.4% presented to emergency departments within twelve months, including 1236 with cardiac arrhythmias (7.4%) and 434 with device-related problems (2.6%); 56% were re-admitted to hospital, including 1944 with cardiac arrhythmias (11.5%) and 2045 with device-related problems (12.1%). A total of 5624 people who received first ICDs during 2005-2020 (33.3%) died during follow-up (6.7 deaths per 100 person-years); the survival rate was 94.4% at one year, 76.5% at five years, and 54.2% at ten years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual number of new ICDs inserted in NSW has increased since 2005. A substantial proportion of recipients experience device-related problems that require re-admission to hospital. The potential harms of ICD insertion should be considered when assessing the likelihood of preventing fatal ventricular arrhythmia.

Estimating impacts of reducing acrylonitrile exposure on lung cancer mortality in an occupational cohort with the parametric g-formula.

OBJECTIVES: To inform the potential human carcinogenicity of acrylonitrile, we estimate associations between acrylonitrile exposures and lung cancer mortality in US workers with the objectives of (1) assessing potential for healthy worker survivor bias and (2) adjusting for this bias while assessing the expected lung cancer mortality under different hypothetical occupational exposure limits on acrylonitrile exposure using the parametric g-formula. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of 25 460 workers at facilities making or using acrylonitrile in the USA. We estimated HRs to quantify associations between employment and lung cancer mortality, and exposure and leaving employment. Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality at hypothetical limits on acrylonitrile exposure. RESULTS: Recent and current employment was associated with lung cancer, and exposure was associated with leaving employment, indicating potential for healthy worker survivor bias. Relative to no intervention, reducing the historical exposure under limits of 2.0, 1.0 and 0.45 parts per million would have been expected to reduce lung cancer mortality by age 90 by 4.46 (95% CI 0.78 to 8.15), 5.03 (95% CI 0.96 to 9.11) and 6.45 (95% CI 2.35 to 10.58) deaths per 1000 workers, respectively. A larger lung cancer mortality reduction would be expected under elimination of exposure: 7.21 (95% CI 2.72 to 11.70) deaths per 1000 workers. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy worker survivor bias likely led to underestimation of excess risk. Our results corroborate previous study findings of an excess hazard of lung cancer among the highest exposed workers.

Quality of life in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving IMRT vs IMPT: a multicenter prospective longitudinal study.

PURPOSE: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients may experience symptom distress and depression during and after radiation therapy, which negatively impacts quality of life (QOL). We sought to identify trajectories of symptom distress, depression, social support, and QOL in patients with NPC receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) vs intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT). METHODS: A multicenter prospective longitudinal study recruited NPC patients from two leading medical centers in Taiwan. The 121 NPC patients were followed from before RT (T0), at 4 weeks after beginning RT (T1), at 6 weeks of RT or the end of treatment (T2), and at 4 weeks post-RT (T3). Generalized estimating equation analysis was used to identify the factors related to QOL. RESULTS: Patients' symptom distress and depression increased from T0, peaked at T2, and decreased at T3. Physical-QOL and psychosocial-QOL decreased from T0 to T2, then increased by T3. Patients who had early-stage cancer, received a lower RT dose, had less symptom distress, and had less depression were more likely to have better QOL. Greater physical-QOL was associated with IMPT receipt, higher education level, early cancer stage, lower radiation dose, less symptom distress, and less depression. Patients who had good physical performance, received a lower radiation dose, had less symptom distress, and had less depression were more likely to have better psychosocial-QOL. CONCLUSION: Radiation dose, symptom distress, and depression were the most important factors affecting QOL in patients with NPC. Understanding the factors associated with the trajectory of QOL can guide care during radiation treatment.

Examining compulsive exercise as a risk factor for eating disorder symptoms in first-year college students using a latent change score modeling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Research suggests that both compulsive exercise and eating disordered behaviors increase during college. Despite strong cross-sectional associations between compulsive exercise and eating disorders, it is unknown if compulsive exercise is a variable risk factor for eating disorders or simply a correlate. It was hypothesized that increases in compulsive exercise would significantly and prospectively predict increases in overall number of eating disorder symptoms over the study period. METHOD: A total of 265 first year college students who did not meet criteria for a full or subthreshold eating disorder diagnosis at Time 1 (age M = 18.15; SD = 0.42; 122 female [46%] at Time 1) completed reports of compulsive exercise and eating disorder symptoms via online questionnaires at four timepoints over the 9-month 2021-2022 academic year (76% retention rate). Hypotheses were tested using a bivariate latent change score model. RESULTS: Hypotheses were not supported. Change in compulsive exercise did not predict change in number of eating disorder symptoms. Change in number of eating disorder symptoms also did not predict change in compulsive exercise. CONCLUSIONS: Compulsive exercise did not emerge as a variable risk factor for the development of eating disorder symptoms among first year college students. The relationship between these behaviors should be investigated at different developmental timepoints, such as early adolescence, and potential third variables that may explain the observed co-occurrence should be explored. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study investigated whether increases in compulsive exercise predicted increases in number of eating disorder symptoms among first year college students. Compulsive exercise did not significantly predict number of eating disorder symptoms. Additional research is warranted to clarify the relationship between compulsive exercise and eating disorder symptoms.

Association between blood pressure and new onset of chronic kidney disease in non-diabetic Japanese adults: A population-based longitudinal study from 1998 to 2023.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hypertension is a risk factor for developing chronic kidney disease (CKD). Studies of adult participants in the USA reported that hypertension increased the risk of developing CKD even in the non-diabetic population. However, studies in non-diabetic populations are limited and additional studies in other races are required. This study aimed to examine the relationship between hypertension and the development of CKD in non-diabetic Asian adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this longitudinal study, non-diabetic Japanese adults who took annual checkups from 1998 to 2023 were included. CKD was defined as <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and hypertension was classified into four levels according to the guidelines of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. The Weibull accelerated failure time model was selected because the proportional hazards assumption was violated. Of the 7363 (men: 40.3%) people in the final cohort, 2498 (men: 40.1%) developed CKD after a mean follow-up of 7.99 years. Elevated blood pressure (BP) and hypertension stage 2 had a 9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1%-16%) and 11% (95% CI: 5%-17%) shorter survival time to CKD onset, respectively, than normal BP. Hypertension stage 1 also had a shorter survival to CKD onset by point estimate, but all 95% CIs crossed 1 in all models. CONCLUSIONS: In a relatively healthy Asian population without diabetes, controlling BP to an appropriate range reduces the risk of developing CKD.

Pathway analysis between dental caries and oral health-related quality of life in the transition from childhood to adolescence: a 10-year cohort study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the direct and indirect pathways between cavitated carious lesions and oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) during the transition from childhood to adolescence. METHODS: A prospective cohort study followed an initial sample of 639 children (one to five years old), in southern Brazil for ten years. In addition to the baseline (T1), two subsequent reassessments were conducted after seven (T2) and ten years (T3). OHRQoL was measured through the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) and Child Perceptions Questionnaire (CPQ8-10 and CPQ11-14), according to the age group. Dental caries was evaluated using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) in the three waves. Socioeconomic variables and other factors related to oral health (frequency of toothbrushing and toothache) were also collected. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the direct and indirect effects among the variables over ten years. RESULTS: A total of 449 and 429 children were reevaluated at T2 and T3 (positive response rates of 70.3% and 67.1%, respectively). Dental caries in T1 and T2 directly predicted the occurrence of a worse OHRQoL in the respective follow-up periods. Dental caries at T3 indirectly predicted a worse OHRQoL (T3), via toothache. Dental caries at T1 and T2 directly predicted the occurrence of dental caries at T3, while a worse OHRQoL at T2 directly predicted a worse OHRQoL at T3. CONCLUSION: Dental caries negatively impacts, directly and indirectly, the OHRQoL from early childhood to adolescence.