Clinical prediction models and the multiverse of madness.

BACKGROUND: Each year, thousands of clinical prediction models are developed to make predictions (e.g. estimated risk) to inform individual diagnosis and prognosis in healthcare. However, most are not reliable for use in clinical practice. MAIN BODY: We discuss how the creation of a prediction model (e.g. using regression or machine learning methods) is dependent on the sample and size of data used to develop it-were a different sample of the same size used from the same overarching population, the developed model could be very different even when the same model development methods are used. In other words, for each model created, there exists a multiverse of other potential models for that sample size and, crucially, an individual's predicted value (e.g. estimated risk) may vary greatly across this multiverse. The more an individual's prediction varies across the multiverse, the greater the instability. We show how small development datasets lead to more different models in the multiverse, often with vastly unstable individual predictions, and explain how this can be exposed by using bootstrapping and presenting instability plots. We recommend healthcare researchers seek to use large model development datasets to reduce instability concerns. This is especially important to ensure reliability across subgroups and improve model fairness in practice. CONCLUSIONS: Instability is concerning as an individual's predicted value is used to guide their counselling, resource prioritisation, and clinical decision making. If different samples lead to different models with very different predictions for the same individual, then this should cast doubt into using a particular model for that individual. Therefore, visualising, quantifying and reporting the instability in individual-level predictions is essential when proposing a new model.

Applying neural networks to predict HPC-I/O bandwidth over seismic data on lustre file system for ExSeisDat.

HPC or super-computing clusters are designed for executing computationally intensive operations that typically involve large scale I/O operations. This most commonly involves using a standard MPI library implemented in C/C++. The MPI-I/O performance in HPC clusters tends to vary significantly over a range of configuration parameters that are generally not taken into account by the algorithm. It is commonly left to individual practitioners to optimise I/O on a case by case basis at code level. This can often lead to a range of unforeseen outcomes. The ExSeisDat utility is built on top of the native MPI-I/O library comprising of Parallel I/O and Workflow Libraries to process seismic data encapsulated in SEG-Y file format. The SEG-Y File data structure is complex in nature, due to the alternative arrangement of trace header and trace data. Its size scales to petabytes and the chances of I/O performance degradation are further increased by ExSeisDat. This research paper presents a novel study of the changing I/O performance in terms of bandwidth, with the use of parallel plots against various MPI-I/O, Lustre (Parallel) File System and SEG-Y File parameters. Another novel aspect of this research is the predictive modelling of MPI-I/O behaviour over SEG-Y File benchmarks using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The accuracy ranges from 62.5% to 96.5% over the set of trained ANN models. The computed Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values further support the generalisation of the prediction models. This paper demonstrates that by using our ANNs prediction technique, the configurations can be tuned beforehand to avoid poor I/O performance.

Grey forecasting models based on internal optimization for Novel Corona virus (COVID-19).

Pandemic forecasting has become an uphill task for the researchers on account of the paucity of sufficient data in the present times. The world is fighting with the Novel Coronavirus to save human life. In a bid to extend help to the concerned authorities, forecasting engines are invaluable assets. Considering this fact, the presented work is a proposal of two Internally Optimized Grey Prediction Models (IOGMs). These models are based on the modification of the conventional Grey Forecasting model (GM(1,1)). The IOGMs are formed by stacking infected case data with diverse overlap periods for forecasting pandemic spread at different locations in India. First, IOGM is tested using time series data. Its two models are then employed for forecasting the pandemic spread in three large Indian states namely, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and union territory Delhi. Several test runs are carried out to evaluate the performance of proposed grey models and conventional grey models GM(1,1) and NGM(1,1,k). It is observed that the prediction accuracies of the proposed models are satisfactory and the forecasted results align with the mean infected cases. Investigations based on the evaluation of error indices indicate that the model with a higher overlap period provides better results.

Meta-analysis approaches to combine multiple gene set enrichment studies.

In the field of gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), meta-analysis has been used to integrate information from multiple studies to present a reliable summarization of the expanding volume of individual biomedical research, as well as improve the power of detecting essential gene sets involved in complex human diseases. However, existing methods, Meta-Analysis for Pathway Enrichment (MAPE), may be subject to power loss because of (1) using gross summary statistics for combining end results from component studies and (2) using enrichment scores whose distributions depend on the set sizes. In this paper, we adapt meta-analysis approaches recently developed for genome-wide association studies, which are based on fixed effect and random effects (RE) models, to integrate multiple GSEA studies. We further develop a mixed strategy via adaptive testing for choosing RE versus FE models to achieve greater statistical efficiency as well as flexibility. In addition, a size-adjusted enrichment score based on a one-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic is proposed to formally account for varying set sizes when testing multiple gene sets. Our methods tend to have much better performance than the MAPE methods and can be applied to both discrete and continuous phenotypes. Specifically, the performance of the adaptive testing method seems to be the most stable in general situations.

Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike.

The Accuracy of Estimating Fetal Weight and Inter-Twin Weight Discordance by Ultrasound in Twin Pregnancies in Women With Increased Body Mass Index.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine whether increased maternal pre-pregnancy BMI decreases the ultrasound accuracy of fetal weight estimation and inter-twin weight discordance in twin pregnancies compared with women with normal BMI. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of women with a known pre-pregnancy or early pregnancy BMI who delivered a viable twin pregnancy after 28 weeks' gestation between 2008 and 2011, and who had an ultrasound examination for fetal weight estimation within two weeks of delivery. The sonographically estimated fetal weight (EFW) was compared with the actual weight for each twin, and inter-twin weight discordance (defined as a weight difference between twins of more than 25%) was stratified for the patient's BMI. We sought to determine if EFW and inter-twin weight discordance were affected if delivery occurred at eight to 14 days after ultrasound compared to within seven days of ultrasound. RESULTS: A total of 300 twin pregnancies with known pre-pregnancy maternal BMI were identified. Of these, 179 were underweight or of normal weight (BMI<25 kg/m2), 67 were overweight (BMI 25 to 29.9 kg/m2), and 54 were obese (BMI≥30 kg/m2). Ultrasound accuracy among all BMI groups were compared when done between 8 and 14 days and within seven days from delivery. There was a significant increasing trend in mean absolute percent errors for both twins in the obese compared to normal weight (P<0.05) if delivery happened between eight and 14 days from ultrasound. This difference was diminished if the ultrasound was performed within seven days of delivery. The ultrasound detection of inter-twin weight discordance was similar among the three BMI groups. CONCLUSION: Estimation of fetal weight using ultrasound in obese women with twin pregnancies appears to be more reliable when performed close to delivery. Résumé.

Objectifs : Cette étude avait pour objectif de déterminer si la présence d'un IMC maternel prégrossesse accru entraînait une baisse de la précision de l'échographie pour ce qui est de l'estimation du poids fœtal et de la discordance intergémellaire en matière de poids dans le cadre de grossesses gémellaires, par comparaison avec des femmes présentant un IMC normal. Méthodes : Nous avons mené une étude de cohorte rétrospective portant sur des femmes qui présentaient un IMC prégrossesse (ou aux débuts de la grossesse) connu, qui ont accouché après 28 semaines de gestation à la suite d'une grossesse gémellaire viable entre 2008 et 2011, et qui ont subi un examen échographique visant l'estimation du poids fœtal dans les deux semaines ayant précédé l'accouchement. Le poids fœtal estimé (PFE) par échographie a été comparé au poids réel de chacun des jumeaux, puis la discordance intergémellaire en matière de poids (définie comme une différence de poids entre les jumeaux de plus de 25 %) a été stratifiée en fonction de l'IMC de la patiente. Nous avons cherché à déterminer si le PFE et la discordance intergémellaire en matière de poids avaient été affectés lorsque l'accouchement était survenu de 8 à 14 jours à la suite de l'échographie, par comparaison avec un accouchement étant survenu dans les sept jours de la tenue de l'échographie. Résultats : Nous avons pu identifier, au total, 300 grossesses gémellaires pour lesquelles l'IMC maternel prégrossesse était connu : 179 femmes présentaient une insuffisance pondérale ou un poids normal (IMC < 25 kg/m2), 67 présentaient une surcharge pondérale (IMC = de 25 à 29,9 kg/m2) et 54 étaient obèses (IMC ≥ 30 kg/m2). Dans tous les groupes d'IMC, la précision de l'échographie menée entre 8 et 14 jours avant l'accouchement a été comparée à celle de l'échographie menée dans les sept jours de l'accouchement. Une tendance à la hausse considérable en matière d'erreur absolue moyenne en pourcentage pour les deux jumeaux a été constatée chez les femmes obèses, par comparaison avec les femmes de poids normal (P < 0,05), lorsque l'accouchement avait eu lieu de 8 à 14 jours à la suite de l'échographie. Cette différence était moindre lorsque l'échographie avait été menée dans les sept jours de l'accouchement. La détection par échographie d'une discordance intergémellaire en matière de poids était semblable dans les trois groupes d'IMC. Conclusion : Chez les femmes obèses qui connaissent une grossesse gémellaire, l'estimation du poids fœtal par échographie semble être plus fiable lorsqu'elle est menée peu avant l'accouchement.

Estimation of rice yield using multivariate analysis techniques based on meteorological parameters.

This study aims to develop predictive models for rice yield by applying multivariate techniques. It utilizes stepwise multiple regression, discriminant function analysis and logistic regression techniques to forecast crop yield in specific districts of Haryana. The time series data on rice crop have been divided into two and three classes based on crop yield. The yearly time series data of rice yield from 1980-81 to 2020-21 have been taken from various issues of Statistical Abstracts of Haryana. The study also utilized fortnightly meteorological data sourced from the Agrometeorology Department of CCS HAU, India. For comparing various predictive models' performance, evaluation of measures like Root Mean Square Error, Predicted Error Sum of Squares, Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error have been used. Results of the study indicated that discriminant function analysis emerged as the most effective to predict the rice yield accurately as compared to logistic regression. Importantly, the research highlighted that the optimum time for forecasting the rice yield is 1 month prior to the crops harvesting, offering valuable insight for agricultural planning and decision-making. This approach demonstrates the fusion of weather data and advanced statistical techniques, showcasing the potential for more precise and informed agricultural practices.

Impacts of crude oil market on global economy: Evidence from the Ukraine-Russia conflict via fuzzy models.

The increasing Russia-Ukraine crisis is without a doubt Europe's most prominent conflict since World War II, changing the dynamics of the oil and other key markets. Because the oil market has traditionally interacted with other financial and commodity markets, it will be intriguing to examine how it interacts with substantial financial assets amid market volatility induced by a conflict. The goal of this study is to propose a fuzzy time series (FTS) model and to compare its competitiveness to existing fuzzy time series (FTS) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and some machine learning methods i.e. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and XGBoost models. We considered changes in the partitioning universe of discourse, optimization of parameters method(s), and interval estimation to make the forecast accuracy more precise forecasting than traditional methods via MAPE. The event-based data results show the proposed fuzzy time series model is outperforming all the competitive methods in the study. Furthermore, the proposed model forecasting shows a future decline tendency in WTi market crude oil prices (US$/BBL) after being at the record highest level, which is good news for the worldwide economy.

A critical review of the use of R2 in risk equalization research.

Nearly all empirical studies that estimate the coefficients of a risk equalization formula present the value of the statistical measure R2. The R2-value is often (implicitly) interpreted as a measure of the extent to which the risk equalization payments remove the regulation-induced predictable profits and losses on the insured, with a higher R2-value indicating a better performance. In many cases, however, we do not know whether a model with R2 = 0.30 reduces the predictable profits and losses more than a model with R2 = 0.20. In this paper we argue that in the context of risk equalization R2 is hard to interpret as a measure of selection incentives, can lead to wrong and misleading conclusions when used as a measure of selection incentives, and is therefore not useful for measuring selection incentives. The same is true for related statistical measures such as the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE), Cumming's Prediction Measure (CPM) and the Payment System Fit (PSF). There are some exceptions where the R2 can be useful. Our recommendation is to either present the R2 with a clear, valid, and relevant interpretation or not to present the R2. The same holds for the related statistical measures MAPE, CPM and PSF.

Evaluation of Lee-Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan.

Background: Precise breast cancer-related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model-based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed. The trends shown by mortality data from various diseases and countries are critical to the effectiveness of these models. This study illustrates the unconventional statistical method for estimating and predicting the mortality risk between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan using the Lee-Carter model. Methods: Longitudinal death data for female breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study database were used to compare statistical approach between early-onset (age group, 25-49 years) and screen-age/late-onset (age group, 50-84 years) population. We evaluated the model performance both within (training period, 1990-2010) and outside (test period, 2011-2019) data forecast accuracy using the different error measures and graphical analysis. Finally, using the Lee-Carter model, we predicted the general index for the time period (2011 to 2030) and derived corresponding life expectancy at birth for the female breast cancer population using life tables. Results: Study findings revealed that the Lee-Carter approach to predict breast cancer mortality rate outperformed in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset population in terms of goodness of fit and within and outside forecast accuracy check. Moreover, the trend in forecast error was decreasing gradually in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan. Furthermore, we observed that this approach had provided almost comparable results between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset population in forecast accuracy for more varying mortality behavior over time like in Pakistan. Both the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset populations in Pakistan were expected to have an increase in breast cancer mortality by 2030. whereas, for China, it was expected to decrease in the early-onset population. Conclusion: The Lee-Carter model can be used to estimate breast cancer mortality and so to project future life expectancy at birth, especially in the screen-age/late-onset population. As a result, it is suggested that this approach may be useful and convenient for predicting cancer-related mortality even when epidemiological and demographic disease data sets are limited. According to model predictions for breast cancer mortality, improved health facilities for disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are required to reduce the disease's future burden, particularly in less developed countries.

Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling.

Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.

Fuzzy-based prediction of solar PV and wind power generation for microgrid modeling using particle swarm optimization.

Regardless of their nature of stochasticity and uncertain nature, wind and solar resources are the most abundant energy resources used in the development of microgrid systems. In microgrid systems and distribution networks, the uncertain nature of both solar and wind resources results in power quality and system stability issues. The randomization behavior of solar and wind energy resources is controlled through the precise development of a power prediction model. Fuzzy-based solar PV and wind prediction models may more efficiently manage this randomness and uncertain character. However, this method has several drawbacks, it has limited performance when the volumes of wind and solar resources historical data are huge in size and it has also many membership functions of the fuzzy input and output variables as well as multiple fuzzy rules available. The hybrid Fuzzy-PSO intelligent prediction approach improves the fuzzy system's limitations and hence increases the prediction model's performance. The Fuzzy-PSO hybrid forecast model is developed using MATLAB programming of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with the help of the global optimization toolbox. In this paper, an error correction factor (ECF) is considered a new fuzzy input variable. It depends on the validation and forecasted data values of both wind and solar prediction models to improve the accuracy of the prediction model. The impact of ECF is observed in fuzzy, Fuzzy-PSO, and Fuzzy-GA wind and solar PV power forecasting models. The hybrid Fuzzy-PSO prediction model of wind and solar power generation has a high degree of accuracy compared to the Fuzzy and Fuzzy-GA forecasting models. The rest of this paper is organized as: Section II is about the analysis of solar and wind resources row data. The Fuzzy-PSO prediction model problem formulation is covered in Section III. Section IV, is about the results and discussion of the study. Section V contains the conclusion. The references and abbreviations are presented at the end of the paper.

Forecasting adversities of COVID-19 waves in India using intelligent computing.

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic outburst triggered enormously all over India. This ill-fated and fatal brawl affected millions of Indian citizens, with many active and infected Indians struggling to recover from this deadly disease to date, leading to a grief situation. The present situation warrants developing a robust and sound forecasting model to evaluate the adversities of the epidemic with reasonable accuracy to assist officials in curbing this hazard. Consequently, we employed Auto-ARIMA, Auto-ETS, Auto-MLP, Auto-ELM, AM, MLP and proposed ELM methods for assessing accumulative infected COVID-19 individuals by the end of July 2021. We made 90 days of advanced forecasting, i.e., up to 24 July 2021, for the number of cumulative infected COVID-19 cases of India using all seven methods in 15 days' intervals. We fine-tuned the hyper-parameters to enhance the prediction performance of these models and observed that the proposed ELM model offers satisfactory accuracy with MAPE of 5.01, and it rendered better accuracy than the other six models. To comprehend the dataset's nature, five features are extracted. The resulting feature values encouraged further investigation of the models for an updated dataset, where the proposed model provides encouraging results.

Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.

During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R 0(t), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R 0(t) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R 0(t) ranged from 2.15 (South) to 2.61 (North) with an increase following school reopening and a decline at the end of October. The predictive performance of the regional models, assessed through cross validation, was good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 7.2% and 10.9% when considering prediction horizons of 7 and 14 days, respectively. Average temperature, urbanization, characteristics of family medicine and healthcare system, economic dynamism, and use of public transport could partly explain the regional heterogeneity. The GSA indicated the robustness of the regional R 0(t) curves to different assumptions on IFR. The infectious period turned out to have a key role in determining the model results, but without compromising between-region comparisons.

Coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic prediction in Shanghai under the "dynamic zero-COVID policy" using time-dependent SEAIQR model.

It's urgently needed to assess the COVID-19 epidemic under the "dynamic zero-COVID policy" in China, which provides a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of this strategy in COVID-19 control. Here, we developed a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infected-quarantined-removed (SEAIQR) model with stage-specific interventions based on recent Shanghai epidemic data, considering a large number of asymptomatic infectious, the changing parameters, and control procedures. The data collected from March 1st, 2022 to April 15th, 2022 were used to fit the model, and the data of subsequent 7 days and 14 days were used to evaluate the model performance of forecasting. We then calculated the effective regeneration number (R t) and analyzed the sensitivity of different measures scenarios. Asymptomatic infectious accounts for the vast majority of the outbreaks in Shanghai, and Pudong is the district with the most positive cases. The peak of newly confirmed cases and newly asymptomatic infectious predicted by the SEAIQR model would appear on April 13th, 2022, with 1963 and 28,502 cases, respectively, and zero community transmission may be achieved in early to mid-May. The prediction errors for newly confirmed cases were considered to be reasonable, and newly asymptomatic infectious were considered to be good between April 16th to 22nd and reasonable between April 16th to 29th. The final ranges of cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative asymptomatic infectious predicted in this round of the epidemic were 26,477 âˆ¼ 47,749 and 402,254 âˆ¼ 730,176, respectively. At the beginning of the outbreak, R t was 6.69. Since the implementation of comprehensive control, R t showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on April 15th, 2022. With the early implementation of control measures and the improvement of quarantine rate, recovery rate, and immunity threshold, the peak number of infections will continue to decrease, whereas the earlier the control is implemented, the earlier the turning point of the epidemic will arrive. The proposed time-dependent SEAIQR dynamic model fits and forecasts the epidemic well, which can provide a reference for decision making of the "dynamic zero-COVID policy".

Image recognition based on deep learning in Haemonchus contortus motility assays.

Poor efficacy of some anthelmintics and rising concerns about the widespread drug resistance have highlighted the need for new drug discovery. The parasitic nematode Haemonchus contortus is an important model organism widely used for studies of drug resistance and drug screening with the current gold standard being the motility assay. We applied a deep learning approach Mask R-CNN for analysing motility videos containing varying rates of motile worms and compared it to other commonly used algorithms with different levels of complexity, namely the Wiggle Index and the Wide Field-of-View Nematode Tracking Platform. Mask R-CNN consistently outperformed the other algorithms in terms of the detection of worms as well as the precision of motility forecasts, having a mean absolute percentage error of 7.6% and a mean absolute error of 5.6% for the detection and motility forecasts, respectively. Using Mask R-CNN for motility assays confirmed the common problem with algorithms that use non-maximum suppression in detecting overlapping objects, which negatively impacts the overall precision. The use of intersect over union as a measure of the classification of motile / non-motile instances had an overall accuracy of 89%, indicating that it is a viable alternative to previously used methods based on movement characteristics, such as body bends. In comparison to the existing methods evaluated here, Mask R-CNN performed better and we anticipate that this method will broaden the number of possible approaches to video analysis of worm motility.

Driving effect of multiplex factors on human brucellosis in high incidence region, implication for brucellosis based on one health concept.

Brucellosis is a typical zoonosis driven by various risk factors, including environmental ones. The present study aimed to explore the driving effect of environmental factors on human brucellosis in a high incidence rate area, which provides understanding and implications in mitigating disease transmission risk in a multi-system between the human-animal-environment interface for preventing and controlling brucellosis based on the One Health concept. Based on the monthly time series data of human brucellosis and environmental variables, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was applied to assess the association between environmental indicators and human brucellosis incidence (IHB). The results indicated distinct seasonal fluctuation during the study duration, tending to climb from April to August. Atmospheric pressure, precipitation, relative humidity, mean temperature, sunshine duration, and normalized difference vegetation index significantly drive IHB. Moreover, the well-fitting and predicting capability were performed and assessed in the optimal model was the SARIMAX (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model with the normalized difference vegetation index (ß = 0.349, P = 0.036) and mean temperature (ß = 0.133, P = 0.046) lagged in 6 months, and the precipitation lagged in 1 month (ß = -0.090, P = 0.004). Our study suggests the association between environmental risk factors and human brucellosis infection, which can be contributed to mitigating the transmission risk in the environmental drivers in a multi-system interface through comprehensive prevention and intervention strategies based on the One Health concept.

Success and complication rate of miniscrew assisted non-surgical palatal expansion in adults - a consecutive study using a novel force-controlled polycyclic activation protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Bone-borne miniscrew assisted palatal expansion (MAPE) is a common technique to improve maxillary transverse deficiency in young adolescents. Adult patients usually present a challenge, as they often require additional surgical assisted maxillary expansion (SARPE). There is still no clear statement about non-surgical expansion in adult patients using this technique. The aim of this study was to evaluate the success and complication rate of non-surgical palatal expansion in adults utilizing MAPE with a novel force-controlled polycyclic expansion protocol (FCPC). METHODS: This consecutive study consisted of 33 adult patients with an average age of 29.1 ± 10.2 years (min. 18 years, max. 58 years), including one dropout patient. First, four miniscrews were inserted and after 12-weeks latency, the expander was placed and the FCPC protocol was applied (MAPE group). In case of missing expansion, a SARPE was performed (SARPE group). After maximum expansion, a cone beam CT was made and widening of the midpalatal suture was measured. The outcome variables were successful non-surgical expansion and, with sample size power above 80%, the odds of failed non-surgical expansion and associated complications were evaluated. The primary predictor variable was age. Statistical analysis was performed using R (Version 3.1) to calculate power, to construct various models for measuring the odds of requiring surgical intervention/complications, and others. RESULTS: Successful non-surgical expansion was achieved in 27 patients (84.4%), ranging from 18 to 49 years. Mean age differed significantly between both groups (26.8 ± 8.2 years vs. 41.3 ± 9.9 years; p < 0.001). Mean expansion at the anterior and posterior palate for the MAPE group was 5.4 ± 1.5 mm and 2.5 ± 1.1 mm, respectively. Among these subjects' complications were observed in 18.5%. Age significantly increased the odds of complications (p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: 1. The success rate of MAPE among individuals aged 18 to 49 years was 84.4%. 2. A V-shaped expansion pattern in the antero-posterior dimension was mostly observed. 3. Complications were significantly associated with age. 4. A careful expansion protocol seems to be beneficial to prevent unfavorable results in adult patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Consecutive cohort study, Review Board No. EK-2-2014/0016.

Time series forecasting of new cases and new deaths rate for COVID-19 using deep learning methods.

The first known case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in December 2019. It has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic, imposed restrictions and costs to many countries. Predicting the number of new cases and deaths during this period can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities required in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day ahead during the next 100 days. The motivation for predicting every n days (instead of just every day) is the investigation of the possibility of computational cost reduction and still achieving reasonable performance. Such a scenario may be encountered in real-time forecasting of time series. Six different deep learning methods are examined on the data adopted from the WHO website. Three methods are LSTM, Convolutional LSTM, and GRU. The bidirectional extension is then considered for each method to forecast the rate of new cases and new deaths in Australia and Iran countries. This study is novel as it carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the aforementioned three deep learning methods and their bidirectional extensions to perform prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new death rate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models are used for prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new deaths time series. The evaluation of the methods is presented in the form of graphs and Friedman statistical test. The results show that the bidirectional models have lower errors than other models. A several error evaluation metrics are presented to compare all models, and finally, the superiority of bidirectional methods is determined. This research could be useful for organisations working against COVID-19 and determining their long-term plans.

Short and Long term predictions of Hospital emergency department attendances.

OBJECTIVE: Emergency departments in the United Kingdom (UK) experience significant difficulties in achieving the 95% NHS access standard due to unforeseen variations in patient flow. In order to maximize efficiency and minimize clinical risk, better forecasting of patient demand is necessary. The objective is therefore to create a tool that accurately predicts attendance at emergency departments to support optimal planning of human and physical resources. METHODS: Historical attendance data between Jan-2011 - December-2015 from four hospitals were used as a training set to develop and validate a forecasting model. To handle weekday variations, the data was first segmented into each weekday time series and a separate model for each weekday was performed. Seasonality testing was performed, followed by Box-Cox transformations. A modified heuristics based on a fuzzy time series model was then developed and compared with autoregressive integrated moving average and neural networks models using Harvey, Leybourne and Newbold (HLN) test. The time series models were tested in four emergency department sites to assess forecasting accuracy using the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The models were tested for (i) short term prediction (four weeks ahead), using weekday time series; and (ii) long term predictions (four months ahead) using monthly time series. RESULTS: Data analysis revealed that presentations to emergency department and subsequent admissions to hospital were not a purely random process and therefore could be predicted with acceptable accuracy. Prediction accuracy improved as the forecast time intervals became wider (from daily to monthly). For each weekday time series modelling using fuzzy time series, for forecasting daily admissions, the mean absolute percentage error ranged from 2.63% to 4.72% while for monthly time series mean absolute percentage error varied from 2.01%-2.81%. For weekday time series, the mean absolute percentage error for autoregressive integrated moving average and neural network forecasting models ranged from 6.25% to 7.47% and 6.04%-7.42% respectively. The proposed fuzzy time series model proved to have statistically significant performance using Harvey, Leybourne and Newbold (HLN) test. This was explained by variations in attendances in different sites and weekdays. CONCLUSIONS: This paper described a heuristic-based fuzzy logic model for predicting emergency department attendances which could help resource allocation and reduce pressure on busy hospitals. Valid and reproducible prediction tools could be generated from these hospital data. The methodology had an acceptable accuracy over a relatively short time period, and could be used to assist better bed management, staffing and elective surgery scheduling. When compared to other prediction models usually applied for emergency department attendances prediction, the proposed heuristic model had better accuracy.