Association of Urinary Metals With Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and All-Cause Mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Exposure to metals has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) end points and mortality, yet prospective evidence is limited beyond arsenic, cadmium, and lead. In this study, we assessed the prospective association of urinary metals with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in a racially diverse population of US adults from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: We included 6599 participants (mean [SD] age, 62.1 [10.2] years; 53% female) with urinary metals available at baseline (2000 to 2001) and followed through December 2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI of CVD and all-cause mortality by baseline urinary levels of cadmium, tungsten, and uranium (nonessential metals), and cobalt, copper, and zinc (essential metals). The joint association of the 6 metals as mixture and the corresponding 10-year survival probability was calculated using Cox Elastic-Net. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1162 participants developed CVD, and 1844 participants died. In models adjusted by behavioral and clinical indicators, the HR (95% CI) for incident CVD and all-cause mortality comparing the highest with the lowest quartile were, respectively: 1.25 (1.03, 1.53) and 1.68 (1.43, 1.96) for cadmium; 1.20 (1.01, 1.42) and 1.16 (1.01, 1.33) for tungsten; 1.32 (1.08, 1.62) and 1.32 (1.12, 1.56) for uranium; 1.24 (1.03, 1.48) and 1.37 (1.19, 1.58) for cobalt; 1.42 (1.18, 1.70) and 1.50 (1.29, 1.74) for copper; and 1.21 (1.01, 1.45) and 1.38 (1.20, 1.59) for zinc. A positive linear dose-response was identified for cadmium and copper with both end points. The adjusted HRs (95% CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the mixture of these 6 urinary metals and the corresponding 10-year survival probability difference (95% CI) were 1.29 (1.11, 1.56) and -1.1% (-2.0, -0.05) for incident CVD and 1.66 (1.47, 1.91) and -2.0% (-2.6, -1.5) for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiological study in US adults indicates that urinary metal levels are associated with increased CVD risk and mortality. These findings can inform the development of novel preventive strategies to improve cardiovascular health.

Characterization and Mortality Risk of Impaired Left Ventricular Filling in COPD.

BACKGROUND: In COPD, impaired left ventricular (LV) filling might be associated with coexisting HFpEF or due to reduced pulmonary venous return indicated by small LV size. We investigate the all-cause mortality associated with small LV or HFpEF and clinical features discriminating between both patterns of impaired LV filling. METHODS: We performed transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in patients with stable COPD from the COSYCONET cohort to define small LV as LVEDD below the normal range and HFpEF features according to recommendations of the European Society of Cardiology. We assessed the E/A and E/e' ratios, NT-pro-BNP, hs-Troponin I, FEV1, RV, DLCo, and discriminated patients with small LV from those with HFpEF features or no relevant cardiac dysfunction as per TTE (normalTTE). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality after four and a half year. RESULTS: In 1752 patients with COPD, the frequency of small LV, HFpEF-features, and normalTTE was 8%, 16%, and 45%, respectively. Patients with small LV or HFpEF features had higher all-cause mortality rates than patients with normalTTE, HR: 2.75 (95% CI: [1.54 - 4.89]) and 2.16 (95% CI: [1.30 - 3.61]), respectively. Small LV remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounders including exacerbation frequency and measures of RV, DLCo, or FEV1. Compared to normalTTE, patients with small LV had reduced LV filling, as indicated by lowered E/A. Yet in contrast to patients with HFpEF-features, patients with small LV had normal LV filling pressure (E/e') and lower levels of NT-pro-BNP and hs-Troponin I. CONCLUSION: In COPD, both small LV and HFpEF-features are associated with increased all-cause mortality and represent two distinct patterns of impaired LV filling This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Amiodarone and pulmonary toxicity in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide Israeli study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Amiodarone-related interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the most severe adverse effect of amiodarone treatment. Most data on amiodarone-related ILD are derived from periods when amiodarone was given at higher doses than currently used. METHODS: A nationwide population-based study was conducted among patients with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) between 1 December 1999 and 31 December 31 2021. Amiodarone-exposed patients were matched 1:1 with controls unexposed to amiodarone based on age, sex, ethnicity, and AF diagnosis duration. The final patient cohort included only matched pairs where amiodarone therapy was consistent throughout follow-up. Directed acyclic graphs and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) modelling were used. Patients with either prior ILD or primary lung cancer (PLC) were excluded. The primary outcome was the incidence of any ILD. Secondary endpoints were death and PLC. RESULTS: The final cohort included 6039 amiodarone-exposed patients who were matched with unexposed controls. The median age was 73.3 years, and 51.6% were women. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years, ILD occurred in 242 (2.0%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone exposure was not significantly associated with ILD [hazard ratio (HR): 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97, 2.44, P = 0.09]. There was a trivial higher relative risk of ILD among amiodarone-exposed patients between Years 2 and 8 of follow-up [maximal risk ratio (RR): 1.019]. Primary lung cancer occurred in 97 (0.8%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone was not associated with PLC (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.08, P = 0.53). All-cause death occurred in 2185 (18.1%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.72, P < 0.001). The results were consistent across a variety of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: In a contemporary AF population, low-dose amiodarone was associated with a trend towards increased risk of ILD (15%-45%) but a clinically negligible change in absolute risk (maximum of 1.8%), no increased risk of PLC, and a lower risk of all-cause mortality.

Causal association of blood lipids with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

Dyslipidemia has long been implicated in elevating mortality risk; yet, the precise associations between lipid traits and mortality remained undisclosed. Our study aimed to explore the causal effects of lipid traits on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. One-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with linear and nonlinear assumptions was conducted in a cohort of 407,951 European participants from the UK Biobank. Six lipid traits, consisting of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and lipoprotein(a), were included to investigate the causal associations with mortality. Two-sample MR was performed to replicate the association between each lipid trait and all-cause mortality. Univariable MR results showed that genetically predicted higher ApoA1 was significantly associated with a decreased all-cause mortality risk (HR[95% CI]:0.93 [0.89-0.97], P value = 0.001), which was validated by the two-sample MR analysis. Higher lipoprotein(a) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.03 [1.01-1.04], P value = 0.002). Multivariable MR confirmed the direct causal effects of ApoA1 and lipoprotein(a) on all-cause mortality. Meanwhile, nonlinear MR found no evidence for nonlinearity between lipids and all-cause mortality. Our examination into cause-specific mortality revealed a suggestive inverse association between ApoA1 and cancer mortality, a significant positive association between lipoprotein(a) and cardiovascular disease mortality, and a suggestive positive association between lipoprotein(a) and digestive disease mortality. High LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality but a decreased risk of neurodegenerative disease mortality. The findings suggest that implementing interventions to raise ApoA1 and decrease lipoprotein(a) levels may improve overall health outcomes and mitigate cancer and digestive disease mortality.

Coffee consumption is associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer recurrence and all-cause mortality.

Coffee consumption has been associated with a reduced risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is not clear whether coffee consumption is related to CRC progression. Hence, we assessed the association of coffee consumption with CRC recurrence and all-cause mortality using data from a prospective cohort study of 1719 stage I-III CRC patients in the Netherlands. Coffee consumption and other lifestyle characteristics were self-reported using questionnaires at the time of diagnosis. We retrieved recurrence and all-cause mortality data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the Personal Records Database, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression models with and without restricted cubic splines were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, cancer stage and tumor location. We observed 257 recurrences during a 6.2-year median follow-up and 309 deaths during a 6.6-year median follow-up. Consuming more than 4 cups/d of coffee compared to an intake of <2 cups/d was associated with a 32% lower risk of CRC recurrence (95% CI: 0.49, 0.94,). The association between coffee consumption and all-cause mortality was U-shaped; coffee intake seemed optimal at 3-5 cups/d with the lowest risk at 4 cups/d (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.88). Our results suggest that coffee consumption may be associated with a lower risk of CRC recurrence and all-cause mortality. The association between coffee consumption and all-cause mortality appeared nonlinear. More studies are needed to understand the mechanism by which coffee consumption might improve CRC prognosis.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Healthcare Access and Implications for All-Cause Mortality among US Adults: A 2000-2019 Record Linkage Study.

The United States (US) has witnessed a notable increase in socioeconomic disparities in all-cause mortality since 2000. While this period is marked by significant macroeconomic and health policy changes, the specific drivers of these mortality trends remain poorly understood. In this study, we assessed healthcare access variables and their association with socioeconomic status (SES)-related differences (exposure) in US all-cause mortality (outcome), since 2000. Our research drew upon cross-sectional data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, 2000-2018), linked to death records from the National Death Index (NDI, 2000-2019) (n=486,257). The findings reveal that the odds of a lack of health insurance and unaffordability of needed medical care were over two-fold higher among individuals with lower education, compared to those with high education, following differential time trends. Moreover, elevated mortality risk was associated with lower education (up to 77%), uninsurance (17%), unaffordability (43%), and delayed care (12%). Uninsurance and unaffordability accounted for 4-6% of the disparities in time to mortality between low- and high-education groups. These findings were corroborated by income-based sensitivity analyses, emphasizing that inadequate healthcare access partially contributed to socioeconomic disparities in mortality. Effective policies promoting equitable healthcare access are imperative to mitigate socioeconomic disparities in mortality.

Month-to-month all-cause mortality forecasting: a method allowing for changes in seasonal patterns.

Forecasting of seasonal mortality patterns can provide useful information for planning health-care demand and capacity. Timely mortality forecasts are needed during severe winter spikes and/or pandemic waves to guide policy-making and public health decisions. In this article, we propose a flexible method for forecasting all-cause mortality in real time considering short-term changes in seasonal patterns within an epidemiologic year. All-cause mortality data have the advantage of being available with less delay than cause-specific mortality data. In this study, we use all-cause monthly death counts obtained from the national statistical offices of Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden from epidemic seasons 2012-2013 through 2021-2022 to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The method forecasts deaths 1 month ahead, based on their expected ratio to the next month. Prediction intervals are obtained via bootstrapping. The forecasts accurately predict the winter mortality peaks before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the method predicts mortality less accurately during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, it captures the aspects of later waves better than other traditional methods. The method is attractive for health researchers and governmental offices for aiding public health responses because it uses minimal input data, makes simple and intuitive assumptions, and provides accurate forecasts both during seasonal influenza epidemics and during novel virus pandemics.

Comorbidity profiling identifies potential subtype of elderly patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the comprehensive associations among comorbid diseases in elderly patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study sought to identify potential comorbidity patterns and explore the relationship of comorbidity patterns with the mortality risk in elderly patients with NPC. METHODS: A total of 452 elderly patients with NPC were enrolled in the study. The network analysis and latent class analysis were applied to mine comorbidity patterns. Propensity score matching was used for adjusting confounders. A restricted cubic spline model was used to analyze the nonlinear association between age and the risk of all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We identified 2 comorbidity patterns, metabolic disease-related comorbidity (MDRC) and organ disease-related comorbidity (ODRC) in elderly patients with NPC. Patients in MDRC showed a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (71.41% vs 87.97%, HR 1.819 [95% CI, 1.106-2.994], P = .031) and locoregional relapse (68.73% vs 80.88%, HR 1.689 [95% CI, 1.055-2.704], P = .042). Moreover, in patients with MDRC pattern, we observed an intriguing inverted S-shaped relationship between age and all-cause mortality among patients aged 68 years and older. The risk of mortality up perpetually with age increasing in ODRC group, specifically within the age range of 68-77 years (HR 4.371, 1.958-9.757). CONCLUSION: Our study shed light on the potential comorbidity patterns in elderly patients with NPC, thereby providing valuable insights into the development of comprehensive health management strategies for this specific population.

Effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists on liver-related and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) tend to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with poorer prognosis. We performed this research to compare the risks of cardiovascular diseases, cirrhosis, liver-related mortality, and cardiovascular mortality between glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) use and no-use in patients with T2D without viral hepatitis. METHODS: From January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2018, we used propensity-score matching to identify 31,183 pairs of GLP-1 RA users and nonusers from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the outcomes between the study and control groups. RESULTS: The median (Q1, Q3) follow-up time for GLP-1 RA users and nonusers were 2.19 (1.35, 3.52) and 2.14 (1.19, 3.68) years, respectively. The all-cause mortality incidence rate was 5.67 and 13.06 per 1000 person-years for GLP-1 RA users and nonusers, respectively. Multivariable-adjusted analysis showed that GLP-1 RA use had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (aHR 0.48, 95%CI 0.43-0.53), cardiovascular events (aHR 0.92, 95%CI 0.86-0.99), cardiovascular death (aHR 0.57, 95%CI 0.45-0.72), and liver-related death (aHR 0.32, 95%CI 0.13-0.75). However, there was no significant difference in the risk of liver cirrhosis development, hepatic failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma compared to GLP-1 RA no-use. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide cohort study showed that GLP-1 RA use was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and cardiovascular death in patients with T2D among Taiwan population. More prospective studies are warranted to verify our results.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality risk and loss in life expectancy associated with incident type 2 diabetes onset age and duration.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on type 2 diabetes onset age and duration on mortality risk has been limited by short follow-up, inadequate control for confounding, missing repeated measurements, and inability to cover the full range of onset age, duration, and major causes of death. Moreover, scarce data dissect how type 2 diabetes onset age and duration shape life expectancy. METHODS: We evaluate prospectively these topics based on 270,075 eligible participants in the Nurses' Health Studies and Health Professionals Follow-up Study, leveraging repeated measurements throughout up to 40 years of follow-up. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: In fully adjusted analyses, incident early onset type 2 diabetes (diagnosed <40 years of age) was associated with significantly higher mortality from all-causes (HR, 95% CI was 3.16, 2.64-3.79; vs. individuals without type 2 diabetes), cardiovascular disease (6.56, 4.27-10.1), respiratory disease (3.43, 1.38-8.51), neurodegenerative disease (5.13, 2.09-12.6), and kidney disease (8.55, 1.98-36.9). The relative risk elevations declined dramatically with each higher decade of age at diagnosis for deaths from most of these causes, though the absolute risk difference increased continuously. A substantially higher cumulative incidence of mortality and a greater loss in life expectancy were associated with younger age at type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Longer disease duration was associated with generally higher relative and absolute risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: Early onset of type 2 diabetes and longer disease duration are associated with substantially increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and greater loss in life expectancy.

Association of Stroke With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease With and Without CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), a risk factor for stroke and all-cause mortality, is highly prevalent among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear whether the association of MAFLD with stroke and all-cause mortality differs within and outside of the setting of CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We enrolled 95,353 participants from the Kailuan Cohort Study, among whom 35,749 had CKD at baseline or developed CKD during the follow-up period, and 59,604 individuals who had no CKD at baseline or during the follow-up period. EXPOSURE: MAFLD. OUTCOME: Stroke (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke), all-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the influence of MAFLD on stroke outcomes within the subgroups defined by the presence of CKD. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 6,140 strokes (6.4%) and 11,975 deaths from any cause (12.6%) occurred. After adjusting for potential confounders, MAFLD was associated with an increased incidence of stroke among the participants with CKD (HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.23-1.45]) but not among those without CKD (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.97-1.15]; Pinteraction<0.001). This association was principally related to ischemic stroke (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.26-1.51]) and not hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.85-1.26]). No association was found between MAFLD and all-cause mortality in the participants with CKD (HR,1.04 [95% CI, 0.98-1.10]) or those without CKD (HR,1.03 [95% CI, 0.97-1.09]). Among the participants with CKD, compared with non-MAFLD, MAFLD with diabetes (HR,1.36 [95% CI, 1.23-1.50]) or overweight/obesity (HR,1.30 [95% CI, 1.14-1.50]) was associated with a higher risk of stroke whereas MAFLD without overweight/obesity or diabetes was not associated with a higher risk (HR,1.08 [95% CI, 0.81-1.43]). LIMITATIONS: This was an observational study and included individuals with CKD who had a relatively high estimated glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD was associated with an increased risk of stroke in individuals with CKD but not in those without CKD. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), which is recognized as a risk factor for stroke in the general population, is highly prevalent among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the impact of MAFLD on the risk of stroke in patients with CKD remains uncertain. We investigated the association of MAFLD with stroke in individuals with and without CKD. Our analysis revealed that MAFLD was associated with a significantly increased risk of stroke in individuals with CKD, and the magnitude of this increased risk was greater in the setting of CKD. These findings highlight the need for increased attention to MAFLD in patients with CKD and emphasize that addressing and preventing MAFLD in this population may contribute to reduced morbidity from stroke.

Association between influenza vaccination and one-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk: A self-controlled case series and matched case-control study.

Debates surrounding the efficacy of influenza vaccination for survival benefits persist, and there is a lack of data regarding its duration of protection. A self-controlled case series (SCCS) and a 1:4 matched case-control study were conducted using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and public-use mortality data from 2005 to 2018 in the United States. The SCCS study identified participants who received influenza vaccination within 12 months before the survey and subsequently died within 1 year of postvaccination. The matched case-control study paired participants who died during the influenza season at the time of survey with four survivors. Among 1167 participants in the SCCS study, there was a 46% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 43% reduction in cardiovascular mortality within 29-196 days of postvaccination. The greatest protection was observed during days 29-56 (all-cause mortality: RI: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.12-0.29; cardiovascular mortality: RI: 0.28; 95% CI: 0.14-0.56). Among 626 cases and 2504 controls included in the matched case-control study, influenza vaccination was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality (OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.60-0.92) and cardiovascular mortality (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.44-0.93) during the influenza season. This study highlights the importance of influenza vaccination in reducing the risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with effects lasting for approximately 6 months.

Association between different insulin resistance surrogates and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary heart disease and hypertension: NHANES longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the relationship between insulin resistance (IR) surrogates and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension are lacking. This study aimed to explore the relationship between different IR surrogates and all-cause mortality and identify valuable predictors of survival status in this population. METHODS: The data came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2001-2018) and National Death Index (NDI). Multivariate Cox regression and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were performed to evaluate the relationship between homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR), triglyceride glucose index (TyG index), triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI index) and all-cause mortality. The recursive algorithm was conducted to calculate inflection points when segmenting effects were found. Then, segmented Kaplan-Meier analysis, LogRank tests, and multivariable Cox regression were carried out. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were drawn to evaluate the differentiation and accuracy of IR surrogates in predicting the all-cause mortality. Stratified analysis and interaction tests were conducted according to age, gender, diabetes, cancer, hypoglycemic and lipid-lowering drug use. RESULTS: 1126 participants were included in the study. During the median follow-up of 76 months, 455 participants died. RCS showed that HOMA-IR had a segmented effect on all-cause mortality. 3.59 was a statistically significant inflection point. When the HOMA-IR was less than 3.59, it was negatively associated with all-cause mortality [HR = 0.87,95%CI (0.78, 0.97)]. Conversely, when the HOMA-IR was greater than 3.59, it was positively associated with all-cause mortality [HR = 1.03,95%CI (1.00, 1.05)]. ROC and calibration curves indicated that HOMA-IR was a reliable predictor of survival status (area under curve = 0,812). No interactions between HOMA-IR and stratified variables were found. CONCLUSION: The relationship between HOMA-IR and all-cause mortality was U-shaped in patients with CHD and hypertension. HOMA-IR was a reliable predictor of all-cause mortality in this population.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Identifying reliable prognostic markers is crucial for the effective management of hypertension. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has emerged as a potential inflammatory marker linked to cardiovascular outcomes. This study aims to investigate the association of NLR with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among patients with hypertension. METHODS: This study analyzed data from 3067 hypertensive adults in the National Health and Nutritional Examination Surveys (NHANES) from 2009 to 2014. Mortality details were obtained from the National Death Index (NDI). Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was deployed to visualize the association of the NLR with mortality risk. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the independent association of NLR with mortality risk. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to access the predictive ability of NLR for survival. Mediation analysis was used to explore the indirect impact of NLR on mortality mediated through eGFR. RESULTS: Over a median 92.0-months follow-up, 538 deaths occurred, including 114 cardiovascular deaths. RCS analysis revealed a positive association between NLR and both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Participants were stratified into higher (> 3.5) and lower (≤ 3.5) NLR groups. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that individuals with higher NLR had a significantly increased risk of all-cause (HR 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-2.52, p < 0.0001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.54-3.51, p < 0.0001). Stratified and interaction analysis confirmed the stability of the core results. Notably, eGFR partially mediated the association between NLR and both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by a 5.4% and 4.7% proportion, respectively. Additionally, the areas under the curve (AUC) of the 3-, 5- and 10- year survival was 0.68, 0.65 and 0.64 for all-cause mortality and 0.68, 0.70 and 0.69 for cardiovascular mortality, respectively. CONCLUSION: Elevated NLR independently confers an increased risk for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with hypertension.

Associations of metabolic changes and polygenic risk scores with cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality across BMI categories: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between metabolic status and metabolic changes with the risk of cardiovascular outcomes have been reported. However, the role of genetic susceptibility underlying these associations remains unexplored. We aimed to examine how metabolic status, metabolic transitions, and genetic susceptibility collectively impact cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality across diverse body mass index (BMI) categories. METHODS: In our analysis of the UK Biobank, we included a total of 481,576 participants (mean age: 56.55; male: 45.9%) at baseline. Metabolically healthy (MH) status was defined by the presence of < 3 abnormal components (waist circumstance, blood pressure, blood glucose, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Normal weight, overweight, and obesity were defined as 18.5 ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m2, 25 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2, and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS). Cox regressions were performed to evaluate the associations of metabolic status, metabolic transitions, and PRS with cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality across BMI categories. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14.38 years, 31,883 (7.3%) all-cause deaths, 8133 (1.8%) cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, and 67,260 (14.8%) CVD cases were documented. Among those with a high PRS, individuals classified as metabolically healthy overweight had the lowest risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratios [HR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65, 0.76) and CVD mortality (HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.50, 0.64) compared to those who were metabolically unhealthy obesity, with the beneficial associations appearing to be greater in the moderate and low PRS groups. Individuals who were metabolically healthy normal weight had the lowest risk of CVD morbidity (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.51, 0.57). Furthermore, the inverse associations of metabolic status and PRS with cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality across BMI categories were more pronounced among individuals younger than 65 years (Pinteraction < 0.05). Additionally, the combined protective effects of metabolic transitions and PRS on these outcomes among BMI categories were observed. CONCLUSIONS: MH status and a low PRS are associated with a lower risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality across all BMI categories. This protective effect is particularly pronounced in individuals younger than 65 years. Further research is required to confirm these findings in diverse populations and to investigate the underlying mechanisms involved.

Gestational diabetes mellitus and risk of long-term all-cause and cardiac mortality: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) without subsequent overt diabetes and long-term all-cause and cardiac mortality. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 10,327 women (weighted population: 132,332,187) with a pregnancy history from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007 to 2018). Participants were divided into three groups (GDM alone, overt diabetes, and no diabetes). Mortality data was linked from the National Death Index up to December 31, 2019. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between GDM alone and overt diabetes with all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality. Data analysis was performed from October 2022 to April 2023. RESULTS: Among the participants, 510 (weighted 5.3%) had GDM alone and 1862 (weighted 14.1%) had overt diabetes. Over a median follow-up period of 6.7 years (69,063 person-years), there were 758 deaths. The GDM group did not show an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.67; 95% CI, 0.25-1.84), while the overt diabetes group had a significantly higher risk (HR 1.95; 95% CI, 1.62-2.35). Similarly, the GDM group did not exhibit an elevated risk of cardiac mortality (HR 1.48; 95% CI, 0.50-4.39), whereas the overt diabetes group had a significantly higher risk (HR 2.37; 95% CI, 1.69-3.32). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis focusing on women aged 50 or above showed that the HR of GDM history for all-cause mortality was 1.14 (95% CI, 0.33-3.95) and the HR for cardiac mortality was 1.74 (95% CI, 0.49-6.20). CONCLUSIONS: GDM alone was not associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality, while overt diabetes was significantly associated with both types of mortality.

Association of the triglyceride glucose index with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a general population of Iranian adults.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is a new and low-cost marker to determine insulin resistant which may be a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although available evidence showed that its association with CVD mortality (CVM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) may differ in different populations, scarce data are available in this regard specially in low and middle-income countries. PURPOSE: To examine the association between TyG index and risk of CVM and ACM in Iranians. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 5432 adults (age ≥ 35 years) with no history of CVD events. Fasting glucose and triglyceride were measured at baseline in all participants and TyG index was calculated. Cox frailty model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for CVM and ACM across the tertiles of TyG index. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11.25 years, a total number of 191 cardiovascular deaths, and 487 all-cause mortality was recorded. The risk of both CVM and ACM increased across the tertiles of TyG index. In the adjusted model for lifestyle and metabolic variables, the risks of ACM and CVM increased by 41% (95% CI 1.11, 1.81; P for trend = 0.005) and 64% (95% CI 1.07, 2.50; P for trend = 0.024), respectively. However, adjustment for diabetes mellitus disappeared the significance for both ACM and CVM. These associations may vary by sex. TyG was not related to the risk of non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSION: The predicting value of TyG index for ACM and CVM might be mediated by diabetes status. Further studies are required to confirm these findings.

The prognostic value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes or prediabetes: insights from NHANES 2005-2018.

BACKGROUND: The Stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) is a novel marker reflecting the true acute hyperglycemia status and is associated with clinical adverse events. The relationship between SHR and mortality in patients with diabetes or prediabetes is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of the SHR for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes or prediabetes. METHODS: This study included 11,160 patients diagnosed with diabetes or prediabetes from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2018). The study endpoints were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and morality data were extracted from the National Death Index (NDI) up to December 31, 2019. Patients were divided into SHR quartiles. Cox proportion hazards regression was applied to determine the prognostic value of SHR. Model 1 was not adjusted for any covariates. Model 2 was adjusted for age, sex, and race. Model 3 was adjusted for age, sex, race, BMI, smoking status, alcohol use, hypertension, CHD, CKD, anemia, and TG. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 84.9 months, a total of 1538 all-cause deaths and 410 cardiovascular deaths were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed the lowest all-cause mortality incidence was in quartile 3 (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that, compared to the 1st quartile, the 4th quartile was associated with higher all-cause mortality (model 1: HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.74-10.7, P = 0.226; model 2: HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.49, P = 0.026; model 3: HR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.08-1.57, P = 0.006). The 3rd quartile was associated with lower cardiovascular mortality than quartile 1 (model 1: HR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.32-0.69, P < 0.001; model 2: HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.96, P = 0.032; model 3: HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-0.99, P = 0.049). There was a U-shaped association between SHR and all-cause mortality and an L-shaped association between SHR and cardiovascular mortality, with inflection points of SHR for poor prognosis of 0.87 and 0.93, respectively. CONCLUSION: SHR is related to all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes or prediabetes. SHR may have predictive value in those patients.

Independent association of history of diabetic foot with all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: the Renal Insufficiency And Cardiovascular Events (RIACE) Italian Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Foot ulcers and/or infections are common long-term complications of diabetes and are associated with increased mortality, especially from cardiovascular disease, though only a few studies have investigated the independent contribution of these events to risk of death. This study aimed at assessing the association of history of diabetic foot with all-cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes, independent of cardiovascular risk factors, other complications, and comorbidities. METHODS: This prospective cohort study enrolled 15,773 Caucasian patients in 19 Italian centers in the years 2006-2008. Prior lower extremity, coronary, and cerebrovascular events and major comorbidities were ascertained by medical records, diabetic retinopathy by fundoscopy, diabetic kidney disease by albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate, cardiovascular risk factors by standard methods. All-cause mortality was retrieved for 15,656 patients on 31 October 2015. RESULTS: At baseline, 892 patients (5.7%) had a history of diabetic foot, including ulcer/gangrene and/or amputation (n = 565; 3.58%), with (n = 126; 0.80%) or without (n = 439; 2.78%) lower limb revascularization, and revascularization alone (n = 330; 2.09%). History of diabetic foot was associated with all-cause death over a 7.42-year follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.502 [95% confidence interval, 1.346-1.676], p < 0.0001), independent of confounders, among which age, male sex, smoking, hemoglobin A1c, current treatments, other complications, comorbidities and, inversely, physical activity level and total and HDL cholesterol were correlated independently with mortality. Both ulcer/gangrene and amputation alone were independently associated with death, with a higher strength of association for amputation than for ulcer/gangrene (1.874 [1.144-3.070], p = 0.013 vs. 1.567 [1.353-1.814], p < 0.0001). Both ulcer/gangrene/amputation and lower limb revascularization alone were independently associated with death; mortality risk was much higher for ulcer/gangrene/amputation than for revascularization (1.641 [1.420-1.895], p < 0.0001 vs. 1.229 [1.024-1.475], p = 0.018) and further increased only slightly for combined ulcer/gangrene/amputation and revascularization (1.733 [1.368-2.196], p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes, an history of diabetic foot event, including ulcer/gangrene, amputation, and lower limb revascularization, was associated with a ~ 50% increased risk of subsequent death, independent of cardiovascular risk factors, other complications and severe comorbidities, which were also significantly associated with mortality. The association with mortality was greatest for amputation, whereas that for revascularization alone was relatively modest. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00715481, retrospectively registered 15 July, 2008.