Simple approaches to characterising multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity) and rates of emergency hospital admission: Findings from 495,465 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Numerous approaches are used to characterise multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), including counts and indices. Few studies have compared approaches within the same dataset. We aimed to characterise MLTC using simple approaches, and compare their prevalence estimates of MLTC and associations with emergency hospital admission in the UK Biobank. METHODS: We used baseline data from 495,465 participants (age 38-73 years) to characterise MLTC using four approaches: Charlson index (CI), Byles index (BI), count of 43 conditions (CC) and count of body systems affected (BC). We defined MLTC as more than two conditions using CI, BI and CC, and more than two body systems using BC. We categorised scores (incorporating weightings for the indices) from each approach as 0, 1, 2 and 3+. We used linked hospital episode statistics and performed survival analyses to test associations with an endpoint of emergency hospital admission or death over 5 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of MLTC was 44% (BC), 33% (CC), 6% (BI) and 2% (CI). Higher scores using all approaches were associated with greater outcome rates independent of sex and age group. For example, using CC, compared with score 0, score 2 had 1.95 (95% CI: 1.91, 1.99) and a score of 3+ had 3.12 (95% CI: 3.06, 3.18) times greater outcome rates. The discriminant value of all approaches was modest (C-statistics 0.60-0.63). CONCLUSIONS: The counts classified a greater proportion as having MLTC than the indices, highlighting that prevalence estimates of MLTC vary depending on the approach. All approaches had strong statistical associations with emergency hospital admission but a modest ability to identify individuals at risk.

A 1-Year Prospective French Nationwide Study of Emergency Hospital Admissions in Children and Adults with Primary Immunodeficiency.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary immunodeficiency (PID) are at risk of serious complications. However, data on the incidence and causes of emergency hospital admissions are scarce. The primary objective of the present study was to describe emergency hospital admissions among patients with PID, with a view to identifying "at-risk" patient profiles. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational 12-month multicenter study in France via the CEREDIH network of regional PID reference centers from November 2010 to October 2011. All patients with PIDs requiring emergency hospital admission were included. RESULTS: A total of 200 admissions concerned 137 patients (73 adults and 64 children, 53% of whom had antibody deficiencies). Thirty admissions were reported for 16 hematopoietic stem cell transplantation recipients. When considering the 170 admissions of non-transplant patients, 149 (85%) were related to acute infections (respiratory tract infections and gastrointestinal tract infections in 72 (36%) and 34 (17%) of cases, respectively). Seventy-seven percent of the admissions occurred during winter or spring (December to May). The in-hospital mortality rate was 8.8% (12 patients); death was related to a severe infection in 11 cases (8%) and Epstein-Barr virus-induced lymphoma in 1 case. Patients with a central venous catheter (n = 19, 13.9%) were significantly more hospitalized for an infection (94.7%) than for a non-infectious reason (5.3%) (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Our data showed that the annual incidence of emergency hospital admission among patients with PID is 3.4%. The leading cause of emergency hospital admission was an acute infection, and having a central venous catheter was associated with a significantly greater risk of admission for an infectious episode.

Impacts of cold weather on emergency hospital admission in Texas, 2004-2013.

Cold weather has been identified as a major cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S. Although the effects of cold weather on mortality has been investigated extensively, studies on how cold weather affects hospital admissions are limited particularly in the Southern United States. This study aimed to examine impacts of cold weather on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in 12 major Texas metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for the 10-year period, 2004-2013. A two-stage approach was employed to examine the associations between cold weather and EHA. First, the cold effects on each MSA were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Then a random effects meta-analysis was applied to estimate pooled effects across all 12 MSAs. Percent increase in risk and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated as with a 1 °C (°C) decrease in temperature below a MSA-specific threshold for cold effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific EHA were modeled separately. The majority of the 12 Texas MSAs were associated with an increased risk in EHA ranging from 0.1% to 3.8% with a 1 °C decrease below cold thresholds. The pooled effect estimate was 1.6% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.2%) increase in all-cause EHA risk with 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects were also observed in most eastern and southern Texas MSAs. Effects of cold on all-cause EHA were highest in the very elderly (2.4%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 3.6%). Pooled estimates for cause-specific EHA association were strongest in pneumonia (3.3%, 95% CI: 2.8%, 3.9%), followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (3.3%, 95% CI: 2.1%, 4.5%) and respiratory diseases (2.8%, 95% CI: 1.9%, 3.7%). Cold weather generally increases EHA risk significantly in Texas, especially in respiratory diseases, and cold effects estimates increased by elderly population (aged over 75 years). Our findings provide insight into better intervention strategy to reduce adverse health effects of cold weather among targeted vulnerable populations.

Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England.

PURPOSE: Secondary health care services have been under considerable pressure in England as attendance rates increase, resulting in longer waiting times and greater demands on staff. This study's aim was to examine the association between continuity of care and risk of emergency hospital admission among older adults. METHODS: We analyzed records from 10,000 patients aged 65 years and older in 2012 within 297 English general practices obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. We used the Bice and Boxerman (BB) index and the appointed general practitioner index (last general practitioner consulted before hospitalization) to quantify patient-physician continuity. The BB index was used in a prospective cohort approach to assess impact of continuity on risk of admission. Both indices were used in a separate retrospective nested case-control approach to test the effect of changing physician on the odds of hospital admission in the following 30 days. RESULTS: In the prospective cohort analysis, the BB index showed a graded, non-significant inverse relationship of continuity of care with risk of emergency hospital admission, although the hazard ratio for patients experiencing least continuity was 2.27 (95% CI, 1.37-3.76) compared with those having complete continuity. In the retrospective nested case-control analysis, we found a graded inverse relationship between continuity of care and emergency hospital admission for both BB and appointed general practitioner indices: for the latter, the odds ratio for those experiencing least continuity was 2.32 (95% CI, 1.48-3.63) relative to those experiencing most continuity. CONCLUSIONS: Marked discontinuity of care might contribute to increased unplanned hospital admissions among patients aged 65 years and older. Schemes to enhance continuity of care have the potential to reduce hospital admissions.

Pneumonia Hospitalization Risk in the Elderly Attributable to Cold and Hot Temperatures in Hong Kong, China.

The growth of pathogens potentially relevant to respiratory tract infection may be triggered by changes in ambient temperature. Few studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and pneumonia incidence, and no studies have focused on the susceptible elderly population. We aimed to examine the short-term association between ambient temperature and geriatric pneumonia and to assess the disease burden attributable to cold and hot temperatures in Hong Kong, China. Daily time-series data on emergency hospital admissions for geriatric pneumonia, mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollution concentrations between January 2005 and December 2012 were collected. Distributed-lag nonlinear modeling integrated in quasi-Poisson regression was used to examine the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and pneumonia hospitalization. Measures of the risk attributable to nonoptimal temperature were calculated to summarize the disease burden. Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine the sex difference. We observed significant nonlinear and delayed associations of both cold and hot temperatures with pneumonia in the elderly, with cold temperatures having stronger effect estimates. Among the 10.7% of temperature-related pneumonia hospitalizations, 8.7% and 2.0% were attributed to cold and hot temperatures, respectively. Most of the temperature-related burden for pneumonia hospitalizations in Hong Kong was attributable to cold temperatures, and elderly men had greater susceptibility.

Impact of heat on emergency hospital admissions related to kidney diseases in Texas: Uncovering racial disparities.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: While impact of heat exposure on human health is well-documented, limited research exists on its effect on kidney disease hospital admissions especially in Texas, a state with diverse demographics and a high heat-related death rate. We aimed to explore the link between high temperatures and emergency kidney disease hospital admissions across 12 Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) from 2004 to 2013, considering causes, age groups, and ethnic populations. METHODS: To investigate the correlation between high temperatures and emergency hospital admissions, we utilized MSA-level hospital admission and weather data. We employed a Generalized Additive Model to calculate the association specific to each MSA, and then performed a random effects meta-analysis to estimate the overall correlation. Analyses were stratified by age groups, admission causes, and racial/ethnic disparities. Sensitivity analysis involved lag modifications and ozone inclusion in the model. RESULTS: Our analysis found that each 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.73 % (95 % CI [1.43, 2.03]) increase in hospital admissions related to all types of kidney diseases. Besides, the effect estimates varied across different age groups and specific types of kidney diseases. We observed statistically significant associations between high temperatures and emergency hospital admissions for Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) (3.34 % (95 % CI [2.86, 3.82])), Kidney Stone (1.76 % (95 % CI [0.94, 2.60])), and Urinary Tract Infections (UTI) (1.06 % (95 % CI [0.61, 1.51])). Our research findings indicate disparities in certain Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas metropolitan areas, the estimated effects are more pronounced for African Americans when compared to the White population. Additionally, in Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and San Antonio, the estimated effects are greater for the Hispanic group compared to the Non-Hispanic group. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds a strong link between higher temperatures and kidney disease-related hospital admissions in Texas, especially for AKI. Public health actions are necessary to address these temperature-related health risks, including targeted kidney health initiatives. More research is needed to understand the mechanisms and address health disparities among racial/ethnic groups.

Impact of heat on emergency hospital admission in Texas: geographic and racial/ethnic disparities.

BACKGROUND: Studies exploring the racial/ethnicity disparity of the impact of heat on hospital admission are notably limited, especially in Texas, a state with a diverse population and consistently ranking among the top ten U.S. states for heat-related deaths per capita from 2018 to 2020. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to determine the correlation between elevated temperatures and emergency hospital admissions for various causes and age groups across 12 Metropolitan Statistical Areas(MSAs) in Texas. Additionally, we aim to investigate health inequalities in the five largest MSAs in Texas between 2004 and 2013. METHODS: We used MSA-level hospital admission and weather data to estimate the relationship between heat and emergency hospital admissions. We applied a Generalized Additive Model and random effects meta-analysis to calculate MSA-specific associations and overall correlation, repeating the analysis for age groups and specific causes of admission. We also investigated health disparities across racial and ethnic groups and performed a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The results showed that a 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 0.50% (95% CI [0.38%, 0.63%]) increase in all-cause emergency hospital admissions. Heat's impact on hospital admissions varied among age groups and causes, with children under 6 years showing the highest effect estimate (0.64% (95% CI [0.32%,0.96%])). Statistically significant associations were found for Cardiovascular Diseases (0.27% (95% CI [0.07%,0.47%])), Ischemic Heart Diseases (0.53% (95% CI [0.15%,0.92%])), Pneumonia (0.70% (95% CI [0.25%,1.16%])), and Respiratory Diseases (0.67% (95% CI [0.18%,1.17%])). Health disparities were found among racial and ethnic groups in the five largest MSAs. IMPACT STATEMENT: Studies exploring the impact of heat on hospital admission in Texas are notably limited. Our research provided a comprehensive examination of the connection between heat and emergency hospital admissions throughout Texas. Furthermore, we are the first to examine racial/ethnic disparities, identifying African American and Hispanic groups as disproportionately affected. These insights provide valuable insights for policymakers to allocate resources and implement strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of rising temperatures.

Developing and validating a predictive model for future emergency hospital admissions.

Although many emergency hospital admissions may be unavoidable, a proportion of these admissions represent a failure of the care system. The adverse consequences of avoidable emergency hospital admissions affect patients, carers, care systems and substantially increase care costs. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model to estimate the individual probability of emergency admission in the next 12 months within a regional population. We deterministically linked routinely collected data from secondary care with population level data, resulting in a comprehensive research dataset of 190,466 individuals. The resulting risk prediction tool is based on a logistic regression model with five independent variables. The model indicated a discrimination of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9384 (95% CI 0.9325-0.9443). We also experimented with different probability cut-off points for identifying high risk patients and found the model's overall prediction accuracy to be over 95% throughout. In summary, the internally validated model we developed can predict with high accuracy the individual risk of emergency admission to hospital within the next year. Its relative simplicity makes it easily implementable within a decision support tool to assist with the management of individual patients in the community.

Interviewing older people about their experiences of emergency hospital admission: methodology in health services research.

This essay makes the case for increased use of patient-centred methodologies, which involve patients and the public, in the area of emergency admissions research in the United Kingdom. Emergency admission research has rarely made use of the patient voice when attempting to find a rate of 'inappropriate' admission for older people, instead focusing on professional viewpoints and more abstract tools. We argue for the important insights that patients and their families bring to emergency admissions research and for the need to listen to and use these voices to find more holistic responses to the issue of unplanned admissions to hospital for those aged over 65. This area of health services research is highly complex, but without involving the patient viewpoint we risk not understanding the full story of events leading up to admission and what preventative measures might have helped, and therefore we also risk developing less effective, simplistic solutions. In the face of increasing challenges to the National Health Service's ability to provide safe, effective and affordable care for older people, researchers need to listen to those with direct and longitudinal experience of their ill health and admission.

Are ambient volatile organic compounds environmental stressors for heart failure?

BACKGROUND: Numerous epidemiological studies have indicated the adverse cardiovascular effects of air pollution on heart failure (HF) risk. However, little data are available directly evaluating the association of ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with HF risk. We aimed to estimate the short-term effects of ambient VOCs on HF emergency hospitalizations in Hong Kong and to evaluate whether the associations were modified by sex and age. METHODS: We collected the daily VOCs concentrations from the Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department between April 2011 to December 2014. HF emergency hospital admission data were obtained from the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong. Generalized additive model (GAM) integrated with the distributed lag model (DLM) was used to estimate the excess risks of HF emergency hospitalizations with ambient concentrations of each VOCs groups - alkane, alkene, alkyne, benzene and substituted benzene. RESULTS: We observed short-term effects of alkyne and benzene on an increased risk of HF emergency hospitalizations. The cumulative effect over 0-6 lag days (dlm0-6) for an IQR increment of alkyne (1.17 ppb) was associated with 4.2% (95% CI: 1.18%-7.26%) increases of HF emergency hospitalizations, while the corresponding effect estimate over dlm0-2 for benzene per IQR (0.43 ppb) was 2.7% (95% CI: 0.39%-5.04%). Each VOCs groups was significantly associated with HF emergency hospitalizations in men. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient volatile organic compounds, particularly alkyne and benzene, were associated with increased risks of heart failure in the Hong Kong population.

Room for one more? A review of the literature on 'inappropriate' admissions to hospital for older people in the English NHS.

This paper reports the findings of a review of the literature on emergency admissions to hospital for older people in the UK, undertaken between May and June 2014 at the Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham. This review sought to explore: the rate of in/appropriate emergency admissions of older people in the UK; the way this is defined in the literature; solutions proposed to reduce the rate of inappropriate admissions; and the methodological issues which particular definitions of 'inappropriateness' raise. The extent to which a patient perspective is included in these definitions of inappropriateness was also noted, given patient involvement is such a key policy priority in other areas of health policy. Despite long-standing policy debates, relatively little research has been published on formal rates of 'inappropriate' emergency hospital admissions for older people in the UK NHS in recent years. What has been produced indicates varying rates of in/appropriateness, inconsistent ways of defining appropriateness and a lack of focus on the possible solutions to address the problem. Significantly, patient perspectives are lacking, and we would suggest that this is a key factor in fully understanding how to prevent avoidable admissions. With an ageing population, significant financial challenges and a potentially fragmented health and social care system, the issue of the appropriateness of emergency admission is a pressing one which requires further research, greater focus on the experiences of older people and their families, and more nuanced contextual and evidence-based responses.

Carbon monoxide and stroke: A time series study of ambient air pollution and emergency hospitalizations.

BACKGROUND: Recent experimental and clinical studies suggested that exogenous carbon monoxide (CO) at low concentrations may have beneficial neuroprotective effects under certain circumstances. However, population-based epidemiological studies of environmentally relevant CO exposure generated mixed findings. The present study aimed to examine the short-term association of ambient CO with emergency stroke hospitalizations. METHODS: A time series study was conducted. Daily air pollution concentrations and emergency hospital admission data from January 2004 to December 2011 in Hong Kong were collected. Generalized additive Poisson models were used to estimate the associations between daily 24-hour mean concentrations of CO and emergency hospital admissions for stroke, while controlling for other traffic related co-pollutants: NO2 and PM2.5. Sensitivity analyses were performed using daily 1-hour maximum concentration of CO as exposure indicator. RESULTS: Negative associations were observed between ambient CO concentrations and emergency hospital admissions for stroke. The previous 1-3 day cumulative exposure to CO was associated with a -2.0% (95%CI, -3.3% to -0.7%) decrease in stroke admissions per interquartile range (IQR) increment in CO concentration (0.3 ppm). Similar results were obtained when using 1-hour maximum concentration of CO as exposure indicator. The negative association was robust to the co-pollutant adjustment for either NO2 or PM2.5. Females and elders appeared to be more sensitive to ambient CO exposure. The negative association tended to be larger in cool season. CONCLUSION: Short-term exposure to ambient CO was associated with decreased risk of emergency hospitalizations for stroke, suggesting some acute protective effects of CO exposure against stroke onsets.

Greater temperature variation within a day associated with increased emergency hospital admissions for asthma.

Asthma is one of the most common chronic conditions affecting both children and adults. Examining the health effects of environmental triggers such as temperature variation may have implications for maintenance of asthma control and prevention. We hypothesized that large diurnal temperature range (DTR) might be a source of additional environmental stress and therefore a risk factor for asthma exacerbation. Daily meteorological data, air pollution concentrations and emergency hospital admissions for asthma from 2004 to 2011 in Hong Kong were collected. Poisson regression models were used to fit the relationship between daily DTR and asthma, after adjusting for the time trend, seasonality, mean temperature, humidity, and levels of outdoor air pollution. Acute adverse effect of DTR on asthma was observed. An increment of 1 °C in DTR over lag0 to lag4 days was associated with a 2.49% (95% CI: 1.86%, 3.14%) increase in daily emergency asthma hospitalizations. The association between DTR and asthma was robust on the adjustment for daily absolute temperature and air pollution. DTR exhibited significantly greater effect in cool season. Males and female children appeared to be more vulnerable to DTR. Results supported that greater temperature variation within a day was an environmental risk factor for asthma exacerbation.

Gestational age, birth weight, and risk of respiratory hospital admission in childhood.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk of emergency respiratory hospital admission during childhood associated with gestational age at birth and growth restriction in utero. METHODS: The study included a total population electronic birth cohort with anonymized record-linkage of multiple health and administrative data sets. Participants were 318,613 children born in Wales, United Kingdom, between May 1, 1998, and December 31, 2008. The main outcome measure was emergency respiratory hospital admissions. RESULTS: The rate of admission in the first year of life ranged from 41.5 per 100 child-years for infants born before 33 weeks' gestation to 9.8 per 100 child-years for infants born at 40 to 42 weeks' gestation. The risk of any emergency respiratory admission up to age 5 years increased as gestational age decreased to <40 weeks. Even at 39 weeks' gestation, there was an increased risk of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory conditions compared with infants born at 40 to 42 weeks (adjusted hazard ratio 1.10; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.13). Small for gestational age (<10th centile for gestation and gender-specific birth weight) was independently associated with an increased risk of any emergency respiratory admission to hospital (adjusted hazard ratio 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.10). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of emergency respiratory admission up to age 5 years decreased with each successive week in gestation up to 40 to 42 weeks. Although the magnitude of increased risk associated with moderate and late preterm births is small, the number of infants affected is large and therefore presents a significant impact on health care services.

Is greater temperature change within a day associated with increased emergency hospital admissions for heart failure?

BACKGROUND: Although the seasonal variation and the effect of cold temperature on heart failure (HF) morbidity have been well documented, it is unknown whether the temperature variation within a day, that is, diurnal temperature range (DTR), is an independent risk factor for HF. We hypothesized that large DTR might be a source of additional environmental stress and, therefore, a risk factor for HF exacerbation. We aimed to test the association between DTR and HF hospitalization and to examine the effect modifiers, such as age, sex, and season. METHODS AND RESULTS: We collected daily meteorologic data and emergency HF hospital admissions from 2000 to 2007 in Hong Kong. We used Poisson regression models to fit the relationship between daily DTR and emergency HF hospitalizations, after adjusting for the time trend, seasonality, mean temperature, humidity, and levels of outdoor air pollution. We confirmed the seasonal variation of HF with peak hospital admissions in winter in Hong Kong. The adverse effects of DTR on emergency HF admissions were observed on the current day and lasted for the following several days. Every 1°C increase of DTR at lag0 corresponded to 0.86% (95% confidence interval, 0.31%-1.43%) increment of emergency hospital admissions for HF. DTR exhibited significantly greater effect in the cool season, and on female and elderly patients. CONCLUSIONS: Greater temperature change within a day was associated with increased emergency hospital admissions for HF. Health policymakers and hospitals may want to take into account the increased demand of specific facilities for susceptive population in winter with greater daily temperature variations.

Synergy between particles and nitrogen dioxide on emergency hospital admissions for cardiac diseases in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution is a complex mixture of particles and gaseous pollutants. Epidemiological studies are moving toward a multipollutant approach, requiring an understanding of possible interactions among the pollutants. We aim to estimate the joint effects of particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on emergency hospital admissions for cardiac diseases, and to explore the possible interactions between PM10 and NO2. METHODS: We collected daily time series data from 1998 to 2007 on emergency hospital admissions for cardiac diseases in Hong Kong, as well as PM10 and NO2 concentrations. Generalized additive Poisson model was used to examine the relationship between air pollution and hospital admissions. We then used three parallel time series approaches (bivariate response surface model, joint effect model and parametric stratified model) to explore the possible interactions between PM10 and NO2. RESULTS: Results showed the greatest joint effect of PM10 and NO2 on emergency cardiac hospitalizations when PM10 and NO2 concentrations were both at high levels. The effect of PM10 was significantly greatest on the days with high NO2 level, and vice versa. A 10 µg/m(3) increase of lag0 PM10 and NO2 was associated with an increase of emergency cardiac hospitalizations by 0.55% (95% CI: 0.29-0.80%) and 1.20% (95% CI: 0.87-1.53%) respectively, when the other pollutant was at high level. CONCLUSIONS: We found consistent synergistic interaction between PM10 and NO2 on emergency cardiac hospitalizations in Hong Kong. These findings contribute to the development of a new paradigm for multipollutant air quality management.