Impact of model misspecification on model-based tests in PK studies with parallel design: real case and simulation studies.

This article evaluates the performance of pharmacokinetic (PK) equivalence testing between two formulations of a drug through the Two-One Sided Tests (TOST) by a model-based approach (MB-TOST), as an alternative to the classical non-compartmental approach (NCA-TOST), for a sparse design with a few time points per subject. We focused on the impact of model misspecification and the relevance of model selection for the reference data. We first analysed PK data from phase I studies of gantenerumab, a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Using the original rich sample data, we compared MB-TOST to NCA-TOST for validation. Then, the analysis was repeated on a sparse subset of the original data with MB-TOST. This analysis inspired a simulation study with rich and sparse designs. With rich designs, we compared NCA-TOST and MB-TOST in terms of type I error and study power. With both designs, we explored the impact of misspecifying the model on the performance of MB-TOST and adding a model selection step. Using the observed data, the results of both approaches were in general concordance. MB-TOST results were robust with sparse designs when the underlying PK structural model was correctly specified. Using the simulated data with a rich design, the type I error of NCA-TOST was close to the nominal level. When using the simulated model, the type I error of MB-TOST was controlled on rich and sparse designs, but using a misspecified model led to inflated type I errors. Adding a model selection step on the reference data reduced the inflation. MB-TOST appears as a robust alternative to NCA-TOST, provided that the PK model is correctly specified and the test drug has the same PK structural model as the reference drug.

Investigation of the relationship between heart rate and functional class in pulmonary hypertension.

The utility of a non-linear mixed effects model to model heart rate is examined. The heart rate acceleration is derived as a parameter from this model. The relationship between different potential measures of disease severity including heart rate acceleration is examined. Our study is focused on heart rate variability (HRV), heart rate acceleration (HRA), oxygen saturation (SaO2) and the six-minute walk distance (6MWD) as well as their relationship to WHO functional class. The results and conclusions are derived from data were collected by the Children Hospital of Colorado.

Evaluation of non-linear-mixed-effect modeling to reduce the sample sizes of pediatric trials in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Recruitment for pediatric trials in Type II Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is very challenging, necessitating the exploration of new approaches for reducing the sample sizes of pediatric trials. This work aimed at assessing if a longitudinal Non-Linear-Mixed-Effect (NLME) analysis of T2DM trial could be more powerful and thus require fewer patients than two standard statistical analyses commonly used as primary or sensitivity efficacy analysis: Last-Observation-Carried-Forward (LOCF) followed by (co)variance (AN(C)OVA) analysis at the evaluation time-point, and Mixed-effects Model Repeated Measures (MMRM) analysis. Standard T2DM efficacy studies were simulated, with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) as the main endpoint, 24 weeks' study duration, 2 arms, assuming a placebo and a treatment effect, exploring three different scenarios for the evolution of HbA1c, and accounting for a dropout phenomenon. 1000 trials were simulated, then analyzed using the 3 analyses, whose powers were compared. As expected, the longitudinal modeling MMRM analysis was found to be more powerful than the LOCF + ANOVA analysis at week 24. The NLME analysis gave slightly more accurate drug-effect estimations than the two other methods, however it tended to slightly overestimate the magnitude of the drug effect, and it was more powerful than the MMRM analysis only in some scenarios of slow HbA1c decrease. The gain in power afforded by NLME was more apparent when two additional assessments enriched the design; however, the gain was not systematic for all scenarios. Finally, this work showed that NLME analyses may help to reduce significantly the required sample sizes in T2DM pediatric studies, but only for enriched designs and slow HbA1c decrease.

Optimal dosing of gliclazide-A model-based approach.

Gliclazide was approved as a treatment for type 2 diabetes in an era before model-based drug development, and consequently, the recommended doses were not optimised with modern methods. To investigate various dosing regimens of gliclazide, we used publicly available data to characterise the dose-response relationship using pharmacometric models. A literature search identified 21 published gliclazide pharmacokinetic (PK) studies with full profiles. These were digitised, and a PK model was developed for immediate- (IR) and modified-release (MR) formulations. Data from a gliclazide dose-ranging study of postprandial glucose were used to characterise the concentration-response relationship using the integrated glucose-insulin model. Simulations from the full model showed that the maximum effect was 44% of the patients achieving HbA1c <7%, with 11% experiencing glucose <3 mmol/L and the most sensitive patients (i.e., 5% most extreme) experiencing 35 min of hypoglycaemia. Simulations revealed that the recommended IR dose (320 mg) was appropriate with no efficacy gain with increased dose. However, the recommended dose for the MR formulation may be increased to 270 mg, with more patients achieving HbA1c goals (i.e., HbA1c <7%) without a hypoglycaemic risk higher than the resulting risk from the recommended IR dose.

Improved Decision-Making Confidence Using Item-Based Pharmacometric Model: Illustration with a Phase II Placebo-Controlled Trial.

This study aimed to illustrate how a new methodology to assess clinical trial outcome measures using a longitudinal item response theory-based model (IRM) could serve as an alternative to mixed model repeated measures (MMRM). Data from the EXACT (Exacerbation of chronic pulmonary disease tool) which is used to capture frequency, severity, and duration of exacerbations in COPD were analyzed using an IRM. The IRM included a graded response model characterizing item parameters and functions describing symptom-time course. Total scores were simulated (month 12) using uncertainty in parameter estimates. The 50th (2.5th, 97.5th) percentiles of the resulting simulated differences in average total score (drug minus placebo) represented the estimated drug effect (95%CI), which was compared with published MMRM results. Furthermore, differences in sample size, sensitivity, specificity, and type I and II errors between approaches were explored. Patients received either oral danirixin 75 mg twice daily (n = 45) or placebo (n = 48) on top of standard of care over 52 weeks. A step function best described the COPD symptoms-time course in both trial arms. The IRM improved precision of the estimated drug effect compared to MMRM, resulting in a sample size of 2.5 times larger for the MMRM analysis to achieve the IRM precision. The IRM showed a higher probability of a positive predictive value (34%) than MMRM (22%). An item model-based analysis data gave more precise estimates of drug effect than MMRM analysis for the same endpoint in this one case study.

A Simple and Flexible Computational Framework for Inferring Sources of Heterogeneity from Single-Cell Dynamics.

Single-cell time-lapse data provide the means for disentangling sources of cell-to-cell and intra-cellular variability, a key step for understanding heterogeneity in cell populations. However, single-cell analysis with dynamic models is a challenging open problem: current inference methods address only single-gene expression or neglect parameter correlations. We report on a simple, flexible, and scalable method for estimating cell-specific and population-average parameters of non-linear mixed-effects models of cellular networks, demonstrating its accuracy with a published model and dataset. We also propose sensitivity analysis for identifying which biological sub-processes quantitatively and dynamically contribute to cell-to-cell variability. Our application to endocytosis in yeast demonstrates that dynamic models of realistic size can be developed for the analysis of single-cell data and that shifting the focus from single reactions or parameters to nuanced and time-dependent contributions of sub-processes helps biological interpretation. Generality and simplicity of the approach will facilitate customized extensions for analyzing single-cell dynamics.

A Minimal Continuous-Time Markov Pharmacometric Model.

In this work, an alternative model to discrete-time Markov model (DTMM) or standard continuous-time Markov model (CTMM) for analyzing ordered categorical data with Markov properties is presented: the minimal CTMM (mCTMM). Through a CTMM reparameterization and under the assumption that the transition rate between two consecutive states is independent on the state, the Markov property is expressed through a single parameter, the mean equilibration time, and the steady-state probabilities are described by a proportional odds (PO) model. The mCTMM performance was evaluated and compared to the PO model (ignoring Markov features) and to published Markov models using three real data examples: the four-state fatigue and hand-foot syndrome data in cancer patients initially described by DTMM and the 11-state Likert pain score data in diabetic patients previously analyzed with a count model including Markovian transition probability inflation. The mCTMM better described the data than the PO model, and adequately predicted the average number of transitions per patient and the maximum achieved scores in all examples. As expected, mCTMM could not describe the data as well as more flexible DTMM but required fewer estimated parameters. The mCTMM better fitted Likert data than the count model. The mCTMM enables to explore the effect of potential predictive factors such as drug exposure and covariates, on ordered categorical data, while accounting for Markov features, in cases where DTMM and/or standard CTMM is not applicable or conveniently implemented, e.g., non-uniform time intervals between observations or large number of categories.