Trends in State-Level Opinions toward the Affordable Care Act.

CONTEXT: This article argues that the devolution of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to the states contributed to the slow progression of national public support for health care reform. METHODS: Using small-area estimation techniques, the authors measured quarterly state ACA attitudes on five topics from 2009 to the start of the 2016 presidential election. FINDINGS: Public support for the ACA increased after gubernatorial announcement of state-based exchanges. However, the adoption of federal or partnership marketplaces had virtually no effect on public opinion of the ACA and, in some cases, even decreased positive perceptions. CONCLUSIONS: The authors' analyses point to the complexities in mass preferences toward the ACA and policy feedback more generally. The slow movement of national ACA support was due partly to state-level variations in policy making. The findings suggest that, as time progresses, attitudes in Republican-leaning states with state-based marketplaces will become more positive toward the ACA, presumably as residents begin to experience the positive effects of the law. More broadly, this work highlights the importance of looking at state-level variations in opinions and policies.

State-Based Marketplaces Outperform Federally-Facilitated Marketplaces.

In response to regulatory changes at the federal level, states that run their own marketplaces have taken steps to stabilize their individual markets. In this comparison of state-based and federally-facilitated marketplaces from 2016-2018, we find that SBMs had slower premium increases (43% vs. 75%), and fewer carrier exits, than FFMs. The total population participating in FFMs declined by 10%, while the enrolled population in SBMs remained largely stable, increasing by 2%. We find that the performance of the ACA marketplaces varies by state and appears to cluster around marketplace types.

Who Entered and Exited the Individual Health Insurance Market Before and After the Affordable Care Act? Evidence from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

Issue: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) made it easier for older adults and those with medical conditions to enroll in individual-market coverage by eliminating risk rating and limiting age rating. While the ACA also encourages young and healthy people to enroll through subsidies and the individual mandate, it's not clear whether these incentives have been sufficient to prevent the risk pool from becoming disproportionately old and sick. Goal: To assess whether patterns in individual-market participation changed following ACA implementation. Methods: Comparison of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for the periods 2003­09 and 2014­15. Findings and Conclusion: The analysis found few differences in individual-insurance market participation before and after the ACA. Adverse selection occurred during both: people switching into individual insurance coverage after being uninsured were higher utilizers prior to the switch than were those who remained uninsured. Those who disenrolled from individual plans tended to be lower utilizers of care before switching compared with those who kept their coverage. The main difference was that more people--especially young adults--switched from Medicaid to individual insurance, and vice versa, after the ACA. Adverse enrollment or disenrollment in the individual market did not increase following ACA implementation. The combination of easing rating rules and encouraging participation appears to have maintained market stability.

Competition and Premium Costs in Single-Insurer Marketplaces: A Study of Five Rural States.

Issue: In 2017, five states--Alabama, Alaska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wyoming--had only one issuer participating in their health care marketplaces, limiting consumer choice and competition among insurers. Goal: Examine the history of participation in the individual market from 2010 (before the Affordable Care Act was enacted) to 2017, and analyze premium changes among marketplace plans. Methods: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's HIX Compare, which provides national data on the marketplaces from 2014 to 2017. Findings and Conclusions: In 2010, the individual insurance market was already concentrated in the five study states, with Blue Cross and Blue Shield (BCBS) plans covering the majority of enrollees. By 2015, with the marketplaces in full swing, more issuers were competing in the five states. But by 2016, co-ops were facing bankruptcy and left the marketplaces in these states; and in 2017, citing large financial losses, national issuers UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and Humana also exited, leaving only a single BCBS plan in each state. Three of the five states experienced substantially higher annual premium increases than the national average. Policy options with bipartisan support, such as resuming cost-sharing reduction payments and reestablishing reinsurance and risk corridors, could help attract new or returning issuers to marketplaces in these states.

Preparedness of Americans for the Affordable Care Act.

This paper investigates whether individuals are sufficiently informed to make reasonable choices in the health insurance exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). We document knowledge of health reform, health insurance literacy, and expected changes in healthcare using a nationally representative survey of the US population in the 5 wk before the introduction of the exchanges, with special attention to subgroups most likely to be affected by the ACA. Results suggest that a substantial share of the population is unprepared to navigate the new exchanges. One-half of the respondents did not know about the exchanges, and 42% could not correctly describe a deductible. Those earning 100-250% of federal poverty level (FPL) correctly answered, on average, 4 out of 11 questions about health reform and 4.6 out of 7 questions about health insurance. This compares with 6.1 and 5.9 correct answers, respectively, for those in the top income category (400% of FPL or more). Even after controlling for potential confounders, a low-income person is 31% less likely to score above the median on ACA knowledge questions, and 54% less likely to score above the median on health insurance knowledge than a person in the top income category. Uninsured respondents scored lower on health insurance knowledge, but their knowledge of ACA is similar to the overall population. We propose that simplified options, decision aids, and health insurance product design to address the limited understanding of health insurance contracts will be crucial for ACA's success.

Exploring the decline of narrow networks on the 2017 ACA marketplaces.

The prevalence of narrow provider networks on the ACA Marketplace is trending down. In 2017, 21% of plans had narrow networks, down from 25% in 2016. The largest single factor was that 70% of plans from National carriers exited the market and these plans had narrower networks than returning plans. Exits account for more than half of the decline in the prevalence of narrow networks, with the rest attributed to broadening networks among stable plans, particularly among Blues carriers. The narrow network strategy is expanding among traditional Medicaid carriers and remains steady among provider-based carriers and regional/local carriers.

How Have Health Insurers Performed Financially Under the ACA' Market Rules?

Issue: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) transformed the market for individual health insurance, so it is not surprising that insurers' transition was not entirely smooth. Insurers, with no previous experience under these market conditions, were uncertain how to price their products. As a result, they incurred significant losses. Based on this experience, some insurers have decided to leave the ACA's subsidized market, although others appear to be thriving. Goals: Examine the financial performance of health insurers selling through the ACA's marketplace exchanges in 2015--the market's most difficult year to date. Method: Analysis of financial data for 2015 reported by insurers from 48 states and D.C. to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Findings and Conclusions: Although health insurers were profitable across all lines of business, they suffered a 10 percent loss in 2015 on their health plans sold through the ACA's exchanges. The top quarter of the ACA exchange market was comfortably profitable, while the bottom quarter did much worse than the ACA market average. This indicates that some insurers were able to adapt to the ACA's new market rules much better than others, suggesting the ACA's new market structure is sustainable, if supported properly by administrative policy.

Turmoil in the Health Insurance Marketplaces.

The first three years of the Affordable Care Act's Health Insurance Marketplaces have been tumultuous ones, with rapid entry and exit of insurers and recent spikes in premiums. As concerns mount about the stability and viability of the Marketplaces, this brief provides some insight into the forces behind the headlines and presents six options for policymakers to consider.

Insurance Coverage and Access to Care Under the Affordable Care Act.

This brief details changes in insurance coverage and access to care under the Affordable Care Act. About 20 million individuals gained coverage under the law and access to care improved. Despite these gains, more than 27 million individuals are still uninsured, and many others face barriers in accessing care. As a result of the 2016 elections, the future of the ACA is uncertain. As the next Administration and policymakers debate further health system reforms, they should consider the scope of the ACA's effects on their constituents.

Promoting Value for Consumers: Comparing Individual Health Insurance Markets Inside and Outside the ACA's Exchanges.

The new health insurance exchanges are the core of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) insurance reforms, but insurance markets beyond the exchanges also are affected by the reforms. This issue brief compares the markets for individual coverage on and off of the exchanges, using insurers' most recent projections for ACA-compliant policies. In 2016, insurers expect that less than one-fifth of ACA-compliant coverage will be sold outside of the exchanges. Insurers that sell mostly through exchanges devote a greater portion of their premium dollars to medical care than do insurers selling only off of the exchanges, because exchange insurers project lower administrative costs and lower profit margins. Premium increases on exchange plans are less than those for off-exchange plans, in large part because exchange enrollment is projected to shift to closed-network plans. Finally, initial concerns that insurers might seek to segregate higher-risk subscribers on the exchanges have not been realized.

Who Are the Remaining Uninsured and Why Haven't They Signed Up for Coverage?

The number of uninsured people in the United States has declined by an estimated 20 million since the Affordable Care Act went into effect in 2010. Yet, an estimated 24 million people still lack health insurance. Goal: To examine the characteristics of the remaining uninsured adults and their reasons for not enrolling in marketplace plans or Medicaid. Methods: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund ACA Tracking Survey, February--April 2016. Key findings and conclusions: There have been notable shifts in the demographic composition of the uninsured since the law's major coverage expansions went into effect in 2014. Latinos have become a growing share of the uninsured, rising from 29 percent in 2013 to 40 percent in 2016. Whites have become a declining share, falling from half the uninsured in 2013 to 41 percent in 2016. The uninsured are very poor: 39 percent of uninsured adults have incomes below the federal poverty level, twice the rate of their overall representation in the adult population. Of uninsured adults who are aware of the marketplaces or who have tried to enroll for coverage, the majority point to affordability concerns as a reason for not signing up.

How Has the Affordable Care Act Affected Health Insurers' Financial Performance?

Starting in 2014, the Affordable Care Act transformed the market for individual health insurance by changing how insurance is sold and by subsidizing coverage for millions of new purchasers. Insurers, who had no previous experience under these market conditions, competed actively but faced uncertainty in how to price their products. This issue brief uses newly available data to understand how health insurers fared financially during the ACA's first year of full reforms. Overall, health insurers' financial performance began to show some strain in 2014, but the ACA's reinsurance program substantially buffered the negative effects for most insurers. Although a quarter of insurers did substantially worse than others, experience under the new market rules could improve the accuracy of pricing decisions in subsequent years.

Changes in Consumer Cost-Sharing for Health Plans Sold in the ACA's Insurance Marketplaces, 2015 to 2016.

This brief examines changes in consumer health plan cost-sharing--deductibles, copayments, coinsurance, and out-of-pocket limits--for coverage offered in the Affordable Care Act's marketplaces between 2015 and 2016. Three of seven measures studied rose moderately in 2016, an increase attributable in part to a shift in the mix of plans offered in the marketplaces, from plans with higher actuarial value (platinum and gold plans) to those that have less generous coverage (bronze and silver plans). Nearly 60 percent of enrollees in marketplace plans receive cost-sharing reductions as part of income-based assistance. For enrollees without cost-sharing reductions, average copayments, deductibles, and out-of-pocket limits remain considerably higher under bronze and silver plans than under employer-based plans; cost-sharing is similar in gold plans and employer plans. Marketplace plans are more likely than employer-based plans to impose a deductible for prescription drugs but no less likely to do so for primary care visits.

How the ACA's Health Insurance Expansions Have Affected Out-of-Pocket Cost-Sharing and Spending on Premiums.

One important benefit gained by the millions of Americans with health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is protection from high out-of-pocket health spending. While Medicaid unambiguously reduces out-of-pocket premium and medical costs for low-income people, it is less certain that marketplace coverage and other types of insurance purchased to comply with the law's individual mandate also protect from high health spending. Goal: To compare out-of-pocket spending in 2014 to spending in 2013; assess how this spending changed in states where many people enrolled in the marketplaces relative to states where few people enrolled; and project the decline in the percentage of people paying high amounts out-of-pocket. Methods: Linear regression models were used to estimate whether people under age 65 spent above certain thresholds. Key findings and conclusions: The probability of incurring high out-of-pocket costs and premium expenses declined as marketplace enrollment increased. The percentage reductions were greatest among those with incomes between 250 percent and 399 percent of poverty, those who were eligible for premium subsidies, and those who previously were uninsured or had very limited nongroup coverage. These effects appear largely attributable to marketplace enrollment rather than to other ACA provisions or to economic trends.

Increased Transparency and Consumer Protections for 2016 Marketplace Plans.

The open enrollment period that ends in December 2015 for coverage begin­ning January 2016 marks the third year of the health care exchanges or marketplaces and of coverage through new qualified health plans. This issue brief investigates several key changes to the qualified health plans, with a focus on increased transparency and consumer protections. A new out-of-pocket costs calculator, requirements regarding provider networks, and prescription drug cost-sharing requirements should serve to better inform and improve consumer selection. In addition, several policy changes will help individuals with more severe health needs. These include: improved prescription drug coverage for HIV/ AIDS and other conditions, allowing prescription drugs that are obtained through the "exceptions" process to count toward the out-of-pocket spending cap, more comprehensive and consistent habilitative coverage, and an individual out-of-pocket spending cap within the family out-of-pocket maximum.

Consumer Cost-Sharing in Marketplace vs. Employer Health Insurance Plans, 2015.

Using data from 49 states and Washington, D.C., we analyzed changes in cost-sharing under health plans offered to individuals and families through state and federal exchanges from 2014 to 2015. We examined eight vehicles for cost-sharing, including deductibles, copayments, coinsurance, and out-of-pocket limits, and compared findings with cost-sharing under employer-based insurance. We found cost-sharing under marketplace plans remained essentially unchanged from 2014 to 2015. Stable premiums during that period do not reflect greater costs borne by enrollees. Further, 56 percent of enrollees in marketplace plans attained cost-sharing reductions in 2015. However, for people without cost-sharing reductions, average copayments, deductibles, and out-of-pocket limits under catastrophic, bronze, and silver plans are considerably higher than under employer-based plans on average, while cost-sharing under gold plans is similar employer-based plans on average. Marketplace plans are far more likely than employer-based plans to require enrollees to meet deductibles before they receive coverage for prescription drugs.

The CBO's Crystal Ball: How Well Did It Forecast the Effects of the Affordable Care Act?

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan agency of Congress, made official projections of the Affordable Care Act's impact on insurance coverage rates and the costs of providing subsidies to consumers purchasing health plans in the insurance marketplaces. This analysis finds that the CBO overestimated marketplace enrollment by 30 percent and marketplace costs by 28 percent, while it underestimated Medicaid enrollment by about 14 percent. Nonetheless, the CBO's projections were closer to realized experience than were those of many other prominent forecasters. Moreover, had the CBO correctly anticipated income levels and health care prices in 2014, its estimate of marketplace enrollment would have been within 18 percent of actual experience. Given the likelihood of additional reforms to national health policy in future years, it is reassuring that, despite the many unforeseen factors surrounding the law's rollout and participation in its reforms, the CBO's forecast was reasonably accurate.

The Benefit Aftereffects of ACA--Accelerating Toward a New Health Economy.

While the Affordable Care Act (ACA) focused largely on improving access to health care coverage for the uninsured, its broader and longer-term influence may have been its impact on accelerating key trends and strategies that major employers and other stakeholders have been targeting for years. This article looks at some of these trends, where we were pre-ACA and how ACA (through benefit mandates, shared responsibility penalties, Cadillac plan tax, health information technology, accountable care organizations, etc.) has helped to accelerate and refocus efforts. In addition, the public exchange paradigm has given rise to a private exchange movement that is helping further accelerate the transformation of the New Health Economy.

The widening U.S. health care crisis three years after the passage of 'Obamacare'.

This report presents information on the state of the U.S. health system in 2012 and early 2013, specifically the period prior to the implementation of the individual mandate and full rollout of the Affordable Care Act's online health exchanges. The authors include data on the uninsured and underinsured and their access to health care, on socioeconomic inequality in health care, the rising costs of the U.S. health system, and the role of corporate money in health care, with special reference to the pharmaceutical industry. They also provide updates on Medicare health maintenance organizations, Medicaid, and a prelude to the complete implementation of the Affordable Care Act. In addition, the authors include some results from public opinion polls on health systems and international system comparisons. The article concludes with an assessment of the rapid consolidation in the delivery of health care being driven by the Affordable Care Act.