Emergence and Spread of Basal Lineages of Yersinia pestis during the Neolithic Decline.

Between 5,000 and 6,000 years ago, many Neolithic societies declined throughout western Eurasia due to a combination of factors that are still largely debated. Here, we report the discovery and genome reconstruction of Yersinia pestis, the etiological agent of plague, in Neolithic farmers in Sweden, pre-dating and basal to all modern and ancient known strains of this pathogen. We investigated the history of this strain by combining phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses of the bacterial genome, detailed archaeological information, and genomic analyses from infected individuals and hundreds of ancient human samples across Eurasia. These analyses revealed that multiple and independent lineages of Y. pestis branched and expanded across Eurasia during the Neolithic decline, spreading most likely through early trade networks rather than massive human migrations. Our results are consistent with the existence of a prehistoric plague pandemic that likely contributed to the decay of Neolithic populations in Europe.

Early divergent strains of Yersinia pestis in Eurasia 5,000 years ago.

The bacteria Yersinia pestis is the etiological agent of plague and has caused human pandemics with millions of deaths in historic times. How and when it originated remains contentious. Here, we report the oldest direct evidence of Yersinia pestis identified by ancient DNA in human teeth from Asia and Europe dating from 2,800 to 5,000 years ago. By sequencing the genomes, we find that these ancient plague strains are basal to all known Yersinia pestis. We find the origins of the Yersinia pestis lineage to be at least two times older than previous estimates. We also identify a temporal sequence of genetic changes that lead to increased virulence and the emergence of the bubonic plague. Our results show that plague infection was endemic in the human populations of Eurasia at least 3,000 years before any historical recordings of pandemics.

Repeated plague infections across six generations of Neolithic Farmers.

In the period between 5,300 and 4,900 calibrated years before present (cal. BP), populations across large parts of Europe underwent a period of demographic decline1,2. However, the cause of this so-called Neolithic decline is still debated. Some argue for an agricultural crisis resulting in the decline3, others for the spread of an early form of plague4. Here we use population-scale ancient genomics to infer ancestry, social structure and pathogen infection in 108 Scandinavian Neolithic individuals from eight megalithic graves and a stone cist. We find that the Neolithic plague was widespread, detected in at least 17% of the sampled population and across large geographical distances. We demonstrate that the disease spread within the Neolithic community in three distinct infection events within a period of around 120 years. Variant graph-based pan-genomics shows that the Neolithic plague genomes retained ancestral genomic variation present in Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, including virulence factors associated with disease outcomes. In addition, we reconstruct four multigeneration pedigrees, the largest of which consists of 38 individuals spanning six generations, showing a patrilineal social organization. Lastly, we document direct genomic evidence for Neolithic female exogamy in a woman buried in a different megalithic tomb than her brothers. Taken together, our findings provide a detailed reconstruction of plague spread within a large patrilineal kinship group and identify multiple plague infections in a population dated to the beginning of the Neolithic decline.

The source of the Black Death in fourteenth-century central Eurasia.

The origin of the medieval Black Death pandemic (AD 1346-1353) has been a topic of continuous investigation because of the pandemic's extensive demographic impact and long-lasting consequences1,2. Until now, the most debated archaeological evidence potentially associated with the pandemic's initiation derives from cemeteries located near Lake Issyk-Kul of modern-day Kyrgyzstan1,3-9. These sites are thought to have housed victims of a fourteenth-century epidemic as tombstone inscriptions directly dated to 1338-1339 state 'pestilence' as the cause of death for the buried individuals9. Here we report ancient DNA data from seven individuals exhumed from two of these cemeteries, Kara-Djigach and Burana. Our synthesis of archaeological, historical and ancient genomic data shows a clear involvement of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis in this epidemic event. Two reconstructed ancient Y. pestis genomes represent a single strain and are identified as the most recent common ancestor of a major diversification commonly associated with the pandemic's emergence, here dated to the first half of the fourteenth century. Comparisons with present-day diversity from Y. pestis reservoirs in the extended Tian Shan region support a local emergence of the recovered ancient strain. Through multiple lines of evidence, our data support an early fourteenth-century source of the second plague pandemic in central Eurasia.

Uncovering the genomic toll of the Black Death.

The Black Death, a notorious devastating pandemic caused by Yersinia pestis infection during the 14th century, posed a formidable challenge to human immune defenses. A new article by Klunk et al. reports that a variant in an antigen-processing gene may have favored survival during the plague and may have undergone genomic selection in Europeans at unprecedented speed.

No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe.

Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.

Stone Age Yersinia pestis genomes shed light on the early evolution, diversity, and ecology of plague.

The bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis gave rise to devastating outbreaks throughout human history, and ancient DNA evidence has shown it afflicted human populations as far back as the Neolithic. Y. pestis genomes recovered from the Eurasian Late Neolithic/Early Bronze Age (LNBA) period have uncovered key evolutionary steps that led to its emergence from a Yersinia pseudotuberculosis-like progenitor; however, the number of reconstructed LNBA genomes are too few to explore its diversity during this critical period of development. Here, we present 17 Y. pestis genomes dating to 5,000 to 2,500 y BP from a wide geographic expanse across Eurasia. This increased dataset enabled us to explore correlations between temporal, geographical, and genetic distance. Our results suggest a nonflea-adapted and potentially extinct single lineage that persisted over millennia without significant parallel diversification, accompanied by rapid dispersal across continents throughout this period, a trend not observed in other pathogens for which ancient genomes are available. A stepwise pattern of gene loss provides further clues on its early evolution and potential adaptation. We also discover the presence of the flea-adapted form of Y. pestis in Bronze Age Iberia, previously only identified in in the Caucasus and the Volga regions, suggesting a much wider geographic spread of this form of Y. pestis. Together, these data reveal the dynamic nature of plague's formative years in terms of its early evolution and ecology.

Differential pathogenicity and lethality of bubonic plague (1720-1945) by sex, age and place.

COVID-19 brought back to the attention of the scientific community that males are more susceptible to infectious diseases. What is clear for other infections-that sex and gender differences influence both risk of infection and mortality-is not yet fully elucidated for plague, particularly bubonic plague, although this knowledge can help find specific defences against a disease for which a vaccine is not yet available. To address this question, we analysed data on plague from hospitals in different parts of the world since the early eighteenth century, which provide demographic information on individual patients, diagnosis and course of the disease in the pre-antibiotic era. Assuming that the two sexes were equally represented, we observe a worldwide prevalence of male cases hospitalized at any age, a result which seems better explained by gender-biased (thus cultural) behaviours than biological sex-related factors. Conversely, case fatality rates differ among countries and geographic macro-areas, while globally, lethality appears slightly prevalent in young females and older adults (regardless of sex). Logistic regression models confirm that the main risk factor for bubonic plague death was the geographical location of the cases and being older than 50 years, whereas sex only showcased a slight trend.

Plague and local response in North China, 1900-28.

Breakthroughs in international biomedical science circa 1900 meant that plague could be contained through strict quarantine regulations. These measures were successfully deployed with help from local governments during outbreaks of pneumonic plague in Manchuria (1910-11), Shanxi (1918), and elsewhere in North China. This containment shows the effectiveness of uniting international knowledge and local cooperation in disaster response. Yet, in later outbreaks in similar locations, control measures identical to those instituted a decade earlier were rejected, and plague spread largely unchecked. Historical case studies of the control and spread of infectious disease in North China reveal the complexities of the relationship between global knowledge and its broader, local integration, variation in what constitutes effective 'local' cooperation in adopting international knowledge, and the paramount importance of the locality to the landscape of disaster response. History can reveal critical issues in localisation of disaster response still salient today.

The Figure of the Staggering Rat: Reading Colonial Outbreak Narratives Against the Grain of "Virus Hunting".

The image of dazed, plague-infected rats coming out of their nests and performing a pirouette in front of the surprised eyes of humans before dying is one well-known to us through Albert Camus's The Plague (1947). This article examines the historical roots of this image and its emergence in French missionary narratives about plague outbreaks in the Chinese province of Yunnan in the 1870s on the eve of the Third Plague Pandemic. Showing that accounts of the "staggering rat" were not meant as naturalist observations of a zoonotic disease, as is generally assumed by historians, but as a cosmological, end-of-the-world narrative with a colonial agenda, the article argues for an approach to historical accounts of epidemics that does not succumb to the current trend of "virus hunting" in the archive, but rather takes colonial outbreak narratives ethnographically seriously.

Of rats and children: plague, malaria, and the early history of disease reservoirs (1898-1930).

This article's jumping-off point is the highly incisive but often-ignored claim by the French doctor, Louis-Jacques Tanon, in 1922 that rats acted as plague reservoirs in Paris; in other words, that they harboured the plague bacillus but were refractory to it. This claim partially reframed the fight against this disease in the French capital in the 1920s, which became more centred on surveilling the plague reservoir rather than on destroying rats. Drawing upon Tanon's hypothesis, this article explores the emergence, evolution, and several iterations of the idea of disease reservoirs in the early twentieth century. On the one hand, it describes the crafting of a range of ideas with which Tanon was directly or indirectly dialoguing, namely, that rats could present a stage called chronic plague, which was especially developed in India; and that human populations, especially children, acted as sources or reservoirs of malaria in Sierra Leone and Algeria. On the other hand, this article shows how Tanon created original reasoning by combining and reformulating some of these ideas and applying them to Paris. Thus, this article contributes to the early history of reasoning in terms of disease reservoirs, as well as presenting a more dynamic history of microbiology by showing how concepts crafted in the "Rest" found their place in Europe.

Coping With Pandemics: A Historical Perspective About Society's Tools to Deal With Global Infectious Diseases.

ABSTRACT: Throughout history, society has dealt with several devastating pandemics. Our objective is to analyze society's coping mechanisms to deal with pandemic-related stress in history congruent with the values of the time. For that purpose, we have carefully selected some of the most significant pandemics based on their impact and the available psychosocial literature. After a brief introduction, society's coping tools are reviewed and analyzed for the Antonine Plague, the second bubonic plague, the third cholera pandemic, the Spanish flu, the HIV pandemic, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite occurring at different times in history, parallels can be established in the study of society's psychological reactions among different pandemics. Magical thinking, political skepticism, fake accusations, and discrimination of minorities are recurrent reactions in society among different pandemics in history.

A genomic and historical synthesis of plague in 18th century Eurasia.

Plague continued to afflict Europe for more than five centuries after the Black Death. Yet, by the 17th century, the dynamics of plague had changed, leading to its slow decline in Western Europe over the subsequent 200 y, a period for which only one genome was previously available. Using a multidisciplinary approach, combining genomic and historical data, we assembled Y. pestis genomes from nine individuals covering four Eurasian sites and placed them into an historical context within the established phylogeny. CHE1 (Chechnya, Russia, 18th century) is now the latest Second Plague Pandemic genome and the first non-European sample in the post-Black Death lineage. Its placement in the phylogeny and our synthesis point toward the existence of an extra-European reservoir feeding plague into Western Europe in multiple waves. By considering socioeconomic, ecological, and climatic factors we highlight the importance of a noneurocentric approach for the discussion on Second Plague Pandemic dynamics in Europe.

Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.

Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.

Inferring bacterial recombination rates from large-scale sequencing datasets.

We present a robust, computationally efficient method ( https://github.com/kussell-lab/mcorr ) for inferring the parameters of homologous recombination in bacteria, which can be applied in diverse datasets, from whole-genome sequencing to metagenomic shotgun sequencing data. Using correlation profiles of synonymous substitutions, we determine recombination rates and diversity levels of the shared gene pool that has contributed to a given sample. We validated the recombination parameters using data from laboratory experiments. We determined the recombination parameters for a wide range of bacterial species, and inferred the distribution of shared gene pools for global Helicobacter pylori isolates. Using metagenomics data of the infant gut microbiome, we measured the recombination parameters of multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli ST131. Lastly, we analyzed ancient samples of bacterial DNA from the Copper Age 'Iceman' mummy and from 14th century victims of the Black Death, obtaining measurements of bacterial recombination rates and gene pool diversity of earlier eras.

Sexual stature difference fluctuations in pre- and post-Black Death London as an indicator of living standards.

OBJECTIVES: The degree of sexual stature difference (SSD), the ratio of male to female height, is argued to be an indicator of living standards based on evidence that physical growth for males is more sensitive to environmental fluctuations. In a resource-poor environment, the degree of SSD is expected to be relatively low. The aim of this study is to comparatively assess SSD in medieval London in the context of repeated famine events and other environmental stressors before the Black Death (BD) and the improved living conditions that characterized the post-Black Death period. METHODS: To test the hypothesis that a poor nutritional environment resulted in decreased SSD in medieval London, this study compares adult individuals from early pre-Black Death (c. 1000-1200), late pre-Black Death (c. 1200-1250) and post-Black Death (c. 1350-1540) cemetery contexts from London. Maximum tibial,femoral, and lower limb lengths were used as a proxy for stature, and SSD was calculated using the Chakraborty and Majumber index. RESULTS: Compared to the late pre-BD period, we find a slighter higher degree of SSD in the post-BD period for all three stature proxies used. This increase is attributed to more exaggerated increases in stature for estimated males post-BD. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of examining variables that are considered indicators of living standards in light of factors like selective mortality, catch-up growth, and urban migration patterns. Future research needs to further investigate how cultural and biological processes influence the mechanisms that produce adult stature.

The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

Ancient Yersinia pestis genomes from across Western Europe reveal early diversification during the First Pandemic (541-750).

The first historically documented pandemic caused by Yersinia pestis began as the Justinianic Plague in 541 within the Roman Empire and continued as the so-called First Pandemic until 750. Although paleogenomic studies have previously identified the causative agent as Y. pestis, little is known about the bacterium's spread, diversity, and genetic history over the course of the pandemic. To elucidate the microevolution of the bacterium during this time period, we screened human remains from 21 sites in Austria, Britain, Germany, France, and Spain for Y. pestis DNA and reconstructed eight genomes. We present a methodological approach assessing single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ancient bacterial genomes, facilitating qualitative analyses of low coverage genomes from a metagenomic background. Phylogenetic analysis on the eight reconstructed genomes reveals the existence of previously undocumented Y. pestis diversity during the sixth to eighth centuries, and provides evidence for the presence of multiple distinct Y. pestis strains in Europe. We offer genetic evidence for the presence of the Justinianic Plague in the British Isles, previously only hypothesized from ambiguous documentary accounts, as well as the parallel occurrence of multiple derived strains in central and southern France, Spain, and southern Germany. Four of the reported strains form a polytomy similar to others seen across the Y. pestis phylogeny, associated with the Second and Third Pandemics. We identified a deletion of a 45-kb genomic region in the most recent First Pandemic strains affecting two virulence factors, intriguingly overlapping with a deletion found in 17th- to 18th-century genomes of the Second Pandemic.

The Manchurian Plague and COVID-19: China, the United States, and the "Sick Man," Then and Now.

In this article, I explore the historical resonances between China's 1911 pneumonic plague and our current situation with COVID-19. At the turn of the 20th century, China was labeled "the Sick Man of the Far East": a once-powerful country that had become burdened by opium addiction, infectious disease, and an ineffective government. In 1911, this weakened China faced an outbreak of pneumonic plague in Manchuria that killed more than 60 000 people. After the 1911 plague, a revolutionized China radically restructured its approach to public health to eliminate the stigma of being "the Sick Man." Ironically, given the US mishandling of the COVID pandemic, observers in today's China are now calling the United States "the Sick Man of the West": a country burdened by opioid addiction, infectious disease, and an ineffective government. The historical significance of the phrase "Sick Man"-and its potential to now be associated with the United States-highlights the continued links between epidemic control and international status in a changing world. This historical comparison also reveals that plagues bring not only tragedy but also the opportunity for change.