Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.
Infect Dis Poverty
; 7(1): 36, 2018 Apr 29.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29704895
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region.METHODS:
A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation.RESULTS:
Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range 28.38-71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ2 = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village.CONCLUSIONS:
A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Dinámica Poblacional
/
Malaria
Tipo de estudio:
Observational_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Infect Dis Poverty
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article