Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in young non-metastatic rectal cancer patients after curative resection: a population-based analysis.
Int J Colorectal Dis
; 37(11): 2365-2374, 2022 Nov.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36266551
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in young non-metastatic rectal cancer (RC) patients after curative resection.METHODS:
Young RC patients (under 50 years of age) from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Those patients randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 73. The independent prognostic factors for OS were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. A nomogram model was built based on the independent prognostic variables and was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA).RESULTS:
A total number of 3026 young RC patients were extracted from SEER database. OS nomogram was constructed based on race, histological type, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, and number of lymph nodes (LN) examined. C-index, ROC curves, calibration plot, and DCA curves presented satisfactory performance of the above nomogram in predicting the prognosis of young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram can identify three subgroups of patients at different risks, which showed different prognostic outcomes both in the training cohort and validation cohort.CONCLUSION:
We successfully established a reliable and insightful nomogram to predict OS for young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram may provide accurate prognosis prediction to guide individualized follow-up and treatment plans.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neoplasias del Recto
/
Nomogramas
Tipo de estudio:
Clinical_trials
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Colorectal Dis
Asunto de la revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article