The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 121(15): e2320687121, 2024 Apr 09.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38557179
ABSTRACT
The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Ecosistema
/
Biodiversidad
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Italia