Analysis of long-term trend changes in breast cancer incidence and death among females in Shanghai,1973-2017 / 肿瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective:To describe the long-term characteristics and trend changes in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Shanghai from 1 973 to 2017,aiming to provide references for exploring the etiology of breast cancer and formulating strategies and measures for prevention,intervention and control. Methods:Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trend changes in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Shanghai from 1 973 to 2017,and an age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore the effects of age,year of diagnosis,and birth cohort on long-term trend changes. Results:From 1 973 to 2017,there were 68 192 new cases of female breast cancer in Shanghai,with a diagnosed rate of 31.72/100 000.The incidence rate continued to rise,and the risk of the disease continued to rise from the age of 20 years,and the rise rate accelerated significantly after the age of 40 years.There were 21 535 female breast cancer deaths from 1 973 to 2017.The mortality rate was stable,with a death rate of 8.62/100 000,and the risk of death increased significantly from the age of 45 years.The effects of age,period and cohort had a significant impact on the incidence of breast cancer(P＜0.01),while the increase in mortality rate was related to age and cohort effects(P＜0.01). Conclusion:The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Shanghai is still rising rapidly,and the mortality trend is generally stable,suggesting that the treatment is effective and the quality of life is improved.However,breast cancer is still the main malignant tumor among females in Shanghai.It should be continued to implement prevention and control strategies such as lifestyle intervention and screening of high-risk individuals to further strengthen the prevention and control of breast cancer.