Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth: salivary progesterone assay and transvaginal cervical length assessment after 24 weeks of gestation, another critical window of opportunity.

Objectives: Measurement of salivary progesterone (SP4) levels and cervical length (CL) after 24 weeks to assess their potential predictive value among asymptomatic women at high risk of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). Methods: This prospective observational (noninterventional) study consecutively recruited asymptomatic women at high risk of spontaneous PTB. SP4 and CL were measured at recruitment (24-28 weeks of gestation) then repeated after 3-4 weeks. All recruited women were followed up regularly till delivery. The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of spontaneous PTB. Results: One hundred and thirty four women completed the study, 22 (16.4%) and 32 (23.9%) women had early (<34 weeks) and late (≥34 weeks) PTB, respectively. Initially, the mean CL was 3.2 ± 0.6 cm and the mean SP4 was 4062.8 ± 814.6 pg/ml; with follow up, the mean CL became 3.0 ± 0.6 cm and the mean SP4 became 3871.6 ± 1136.9. Women with early PTB had significantly lower initial and follow up CL and SP4 measures when compared to women with late PTB and those who had birth at term. The rate of drop in SP4 and CL measurements between the two visits was also significantly higher among women with early PTB than those with late PTB and term birth. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that, CL was a good predictor but SP4 was a better predictor of PTB as the area under the curve (AUC) for CL was less than that for SP4 at both visits (i.e. 0.858 and 0.868 versus 0.986 and 0.990 at the initial and follow up visits, respectively). There was a statistically significant correlation between CL and SP4 measurements. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis revealed that follow up SP4 measurement was the only independent predictor of spontaneous PTB, and neither BMI, maternal age, SP4 nor CL were independent predictors of early spontaneous PTB. Conclusions: After 24 gestational weeks, SP4 assessment is a simple and reliable promising tool to predict spontaneous PTB among asymptomatic high-risk women, with a little superior performance than CL measurement.

Women with clomiphene citrate resistant polycystic ovarian disease: predictors of spontaneous ovulation after laparoscopic ovarian drilling.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of different clinical, biochemical and sonographic factors as predictors of spontaneous ovulation after laparoscopic ovarian drilling (LOD) in women with clomiphene citrate resistant polycystic ovarian disease (CCR-PCOD). STUDY DESIGN: This prospective study recruited 251 infertile women with CCR-PCOD. Several clinical, biochemical and sonographic criteria were tested as possible predictors of spontaneous ovulation after LOD using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Women with higher preoperative levels of LH, FSH and/or androstenedione had significantly higher rates of spontaneous ovulation within the first eight weeks after LOD, but only FSH and androstenedione were found to be independent predictors. Other factors including age, BMI, type of infertility, duration of infertility, menstrual pattern, testosterone level, ovarian volume and SHBG were insignificant predictors. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves derived from FSH, LH, androstenedione, and a logistic regression model showed that the best cut-off values were 4.1IU/l, 7.8IU/l, 1.2ng/ml, and 0.4897, respectively, with sensitivity of 91.18%, 100%, 73.53%, and 88.24% and specificity of 69.57%, 69.57%, 65.22%, and 73.91% for FSH, LH, androstenedione, and logistic regression model respectively. An extended follow up (9 months after LOD) was conducted for the anovulatory and the non-pregnant ovulatory women, who were treated individually according to their clinical situation. Of these women, 53.5% (69/129) got pregnant, resulting in a cumulative pregnancy rate of 48% (82/171). Of these pregnancies, 16/82 (19.5%) were spontaneous while 35.4% (29/82) and 45.1% (37/82) occurred after ovulation induction by CC and gonadotropins, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study supports the use of androstenedione, LH and FSH as a simple reliable tool in triaging patients with CCR-PCOD to select the ideal candidates for LOD.

Can a smaller than expected crown-rump length reliably predict the occurrence of subsequent miscarriage in a viable first trimester pregnancy?

AIM: To elicit the diagnostic value of smaller than expected crown-rump length (CRL) to predict the occurrence of subsequent miscarriage in women with a viable first trimester pregnancy. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted in the fetal special care unit of a tertiary care maternity hospital. The recruited participants were young pregnant women at 6-13 weeks of gestation. Transvaginal ultrasonography was performed to determine pregnancy viability and measure the embryonic CRL. To compare the differences in CRL between those pregnancies that remained viable and those that subsequently miscarried, the deviation of observed and expected CRL was calculated and expressed in standard deviations (SD) as Z score. The primary outcome measure was the percentage of pregnancies with antecedent growth delay that miscarried by the end of the first trimester. RESULTS: Of the pregnancies that subsequently miscarried, 79.3% (42/53) had smaller than expected CRL, and in 56.6% (30/53) the CRL was 2 SD or less from that expected for gestational age (GA). The mean Z score for CRL was significantly lower in pregnancies that subsequently miscarried compared to pregnancies that remained viable (-2.9 ± 2.6 vs -0.8 ± 2.1, respectively, P < 0.001). A CRL of 2 SD or less from that expected for GA as a cut-off point had a sensitivity of 56.6, specificity of 81.9, positive predictive value of 36.6, negative predictive value of 91.1, likelihood ratio positive of 3.1 and likelihood ratio negative of 0.5 in predicting subsequent miscarriage. CONCLUSION: Viable first trimester pregnancies with small for GA CRL were associated with a higher probability of a subsequent miscarriage.