Projections of Endovascular Therapy-Eligible Patients With Stroke for the US Population.

BACKGROUND: As stroke endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) treatment indications expand, understanding population-based EVT eligibility becomes critical for resource planning. We aimed to project current and future population-based EVT eligibility in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis of the physician-adjudicated GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study; 2015 epoch), a population-based, cross sectional, observational study of stroke incidence, treatment, and outcomes across a 5-county region. All hospitalized patients ≥18 years of age with acute ischemic stroke were ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 430-436 and Tenth Revision codes I60-I67 and G45-G46 and extrapolated to the US adult census 2020. We determined the rate of EVT eligibility within the GCNKSS population using time from last known well to presentation (0-5 versus 5-23 hours), presenting National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and prestroke modified Rankin Scale. Both conservative and liberal estimates of prevalence of large vessel occlusion and large core were then applied based on literature review (unavailable within the 2015 GCNKSS). This eligibility was then extrapolated to the 2020 US population. RESULTS: Of the 1 057 183 adults within GCNKSS in 2015, 2741 had an ischemic stroke and 2176 had data available for analysis. We calculated that 8659 to 17 219 patients (conservative to liberal) meet the current guideline-recommended EVT criteria (nonlarge core, no prestroke disability, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥6) in the United States. Estimates (conservative to liberal) for expanded EVT eligibility subpopulations include (1) 5316 to 10 635 by large core; (2) 10 635 to 21 270 by mild presenting deficits with low National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score; (3) 13 572 to 27 089 by higher prestroke disability; and (4) 7039 to 14 180 by >1 criteria. These expanded eligibility subpopulations amount to 36 562 to 73 174 patients. CONCLUSIONS: An estimated 8659 to 17 219 adult patients in the United States met strict EVT eligibility criteria in 2020. A 4-fold increase in population-based EVT eligibility can be anticipated with incremental adoption of recent or future positive trials. US stroke systems need to be rapidly optimized to handle all EVT-eligible patients with stroke.

Estimated Impact of Emergency Medical Service Triage of Stroke Patients on Comprehensive Stroke Centers: An Urban Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The American Stroke Association recommends that Emergency Medical Service bypass acute stroke-ready hospital (ASRH)/primary stroke center (PSC) for comprehensive stroke centers (CSCs) when transporting appropriate stroke patients, if the additional travel time is ≤15 minutes. However, data on additional transport time and the effect on hospital census remain unknown. METHODS: Stroke patients ≥20 years old who were transported from home to an ASRH/PSC or CSC via Emergency Medical Service in 2010 were identified in the Greater Cincinnati area population of 1.3 million. Addresses of all patients' residences and hospitals were geocoded, and estimated travel times were calculated. We estimated the mean differences between the travel time for patients taken to an ASRH/PSC and the theoretical time had they been transported directly to the region's CSC. RESULTS: Of 929 patients with geocoded addresses, 806 were transported via Emergency Medical Service directly to an ASRH/PSC. Mean additional travel time of direct transport to the CSC, compared with transport to an ASRH/PSC, was 7.9±6.8 minutes; 85% would have ≤15 minutes added transport time. Triage of all stroke patients to the CSC would have added 727 patients to the CSC's census in 2010. Limiting triage to the CSC to patients with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥10 within 6 hours of onset would have added 116 patients (2.2 per week) to the CSC's annual census. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency Medical Service triage to CSCs based on stroke severity and symptom duration may be feasible. The impact on stroke systems of care and patient outcomes remains to be determined and requires prospective evaluation.