Low-Dose Augmentation With Buprenorphine for Treatment-Resistant Depression: A Multisite Randomized Controlled Trial With Multimodal Assessment of Target Engagement.

Background: The experimental therapeutics approach that combines a placebo-controlled clinical trial with translational neuroscience methods can provide a better understanding of both the clinical and physiological effects of pharmacotherapy. We aimed to test the efficacy and tolerability of low-dose augmentation with buprenorphine (BPN) for treatment-resistant depression, combined with multimodal assessment of target engagement. Methods: In this multisite randomized clinical trial, 85 participants ≥50 years of age with a major depressive episode that had not responded to venlafaxine extended release were randomized to augmentation with BPN or placebo for 8 weeks. The primary outcome measure was the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale. In addition, three linked experiments were conducted to test target engagement: 1) functional magnetic resonance imaging using the monetary incentive delay task, 2) brain positron emission tomography of healthy participants using a novel kappa opioid receptor antagonist tracer [11C]LY2795050, and 3) transcranial magnetic stimulation measure of cortical transmission after daily BPN administration. Results: The mean ± SD dosage of BPN was 0.59 ± 0.33 mg/day. There were no significant differences between the BPN and placebo groups in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale changes over time or adverse effects. BPN administration had minimal effects on functional magnetic resonance imaging blood oxygen level-dependent responses in regions involved in reward anticipation and response, no significant displacement of kappa opioid receptor radioligand in positron emission tomography imaging, and no significant changes in transcranial magnetic stimulation measures of inhibitory and excitatory cortical transmission. Conclusions: Our findings suggest a lack of clinical effect of low-dose BPN augmentation and lack of target engagement with this dosage and physiological probes.

Time-varying coefficient cumulative gap time models for intensive longitudinal ecological momentary assessment data with missingness.

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies investigate intensive repeated observations of the current behavior and experiences of subjects in real time. In particular, such studies aim to minimize recall bias and maximize ecological validity, thereby strengthening the investigation and inference of microprocesses that influence behavior in real-world contexts by gathering intensive information on the temporal patterning of behavior of study subjects. Throughout this paper, we focus on the data analysis of an EMA study that examined behavior of intermittent smokers (ITS). Specifically, we sought to explore the pattern of clustered smoking behavior of ITS, or smoking 'bouts', as well as the covariates that predict such smoking behavior. To do this, in this paper we introduce a framework for characterizing the temporal behavior of ITS via the functions of event gap time to distinguish the smoking bouts. We used the time-varying coefficient models for the cumulative log gap time and to characterize the temporal patterns of smoking behavior, while simultaneously adjusting for behavioral covariates, and incorporated the inverse probability weighting into the models to accommodate missing data. Simulation studies showed that irrespective of whether missing by design or missing at random, the model was able to reliably determine prespecified time-varying functional forms of a given covariate coefficient, provided the the within-subject level was small.

MAF Amplification and Adjuvant Clodronate Outcomes in Early-Stage Breast Cancer in NSABP B-34 and Potential Impact on Clinical Practice.

Background: The Adjuvant Zoledronic Acid (ZA) study in early breast cancer (AZURE) showed correlation between a nonamplified MAF gene in the primary tumor and benefit from adjuvant ZA. Adverse ZA outcomes occurred in MAF-amplified patients. NSABP B-34 is a validation study. Methods: A retrospective analysis of MAF gene status in NSABP B-34 was performed. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to standard adjuvant systemic treatment plus 3 years oral clodronate (1600 mg/daily) or placebo. Tumors were tested for MAF gene amplification and analyzed for their relationship to clodronate for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in MAF nonamplified patients. All statistical tests were 2-sided . Results: MAF status was assessed in 2533 available primary tumor samples from 3311 patients. Of these, 37 withdrew consent; in 77 samples, no tumor was found; 536 assays did not meet quality standards, leaving 1883 (77.8%) evaluable for MAF assay by fluorescence in situ hybridization (947 from placebo and 936 from clodronate arms). At 5 years, in MAF nonamplified patients receiving clodronate, DFS improved by 30% (hazard ratio = 0.70, 95% confidence interval = 0.51 to 0.94; P = .02). OS improved at 5 years (hazard ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval = 0.37 to 0.93; P = .02) remaining statistically significant for clodronate throughout study follow-up. Conversely, adjuvant clodronate in women with MAF-amplified tumors was not associated with benefit but rather possible harm in some subgroups. Association between MAF status and menopausal status was not seen. Conclusions: Nonamplified MAF showed statistically significant benefits (DFS and OS) with oral clodronate, supporting validation of the AZURE study.

Comparison of Radiation With or Without Concurrent Trastuzumab for HER2-Positive Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Resected by Lumpectomy: A Phase III Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: Preclinical studies report that trastuzumab (T) can boost radiotherapy (RT) effectiveness. The primary aim of the B-43 trial was to assess the efficacy of RT alone vs concurrent RT plus T in preventing recurrence of ipsilateral breast cancer (IBTR) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligibility: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0 or 1, DCIS resected by lumpectomy, known estrogen receptor (ER) and/or progesterone receptor (PgR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status by centralized testing. Whole-breast RT was given concurrently with T. Stratification was by menopausal status, adjuvant endocrine therapy plan, and nuclear grade. Definitive intent-to-treat primary analysis was to be conducted when either 163 IBTR events occurred or all accrued patients were on study ≥ 5 years. RESULTS: There were 2,014 participants who were randomly assigned. Median follow-up time as of December 31, 2019, was 79.2 months. At primary definitive analysis, 114 IBTR events occurred: RT arm, 63 and RT plus T arm, 51 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.56 to 1.17; P value = .26). There were 34 who were invasive: RT arm, 18 and RT plus T arm, 20 (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.59 to 2.10; P value = .71). Seventy-six were DCIS: RT arm, 45 and RT plus T arm, 31 (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.08; P value = .11). Annual IBTR event rates were: RT arm, 0.99%/y and RT plus T arm, 0.79%/y. The study did not reach the 163 protocol-specified events, so the definitive analysis was triggered by all patients having been on study for ≥ 5 years. CONCLUSION: Addition of T to RT did not achieve the objective of 36% reduction in IBTR rate but did achieve a modest but statistically nonsignificant reduction of 19%. Nonetheless, this trial had negative results. Further exploration of RT plus T is needed in HER2-positive DCIS before its routine delivery in patients with DCIS resected by lumpectomy.

Influence of apolipoprotein-E genotype on brain amyloid load and longitudinal trajectories.

To characterize the influence of apolipoprotein-E (APOE) genotype on cerebral Aß load and longitudinal Aß trajectories, [11C]Pittsburgh compound-B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging was used to assess amyloid load in a clinically heterogeneous cohort of 428 elderly participants with known APOE genotype. Serial [11C]PiB data and a repeated measures model were used to model amyloid trajectories in a subset of 235 participants classified on the basis of APOE genotype. We found that APOE-ε4 was associated with increased Aß burden and an earlier age of onset of Aß positivity, whereas APOE-ε2 appeared to have modest protective effects against Aß. APOE class did not predict rates of Aß accumulation. The present study suggests that APOE modifies Alzheimer's disease risk through a direct influence on amyloidogenic processes, which manifests as an earlier age of onset of Aß positivity, although it is likely that other genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors are important.

Problem-Solving Therapy for Older Adults at Risk for Depression: A Qualitative Analysis of the Depression in Later Life Trial.

OBJECTIVE: As a sequel to the Depression in Later Life trial of lay counselor-delivered problem-solving therapy for depression prevention among older adults in Goa, India, this qualitative study aimed to explore participant experiences to illuminate the reasons for the trial's positive findings and implications for further efforts at depression prevention in low-resource settings. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 19 participants (21% of those randomly assigned to the original intervention). Two independent raters coded the data and organized narratives according to broad themes. RESULTS: Most participants valued their relationship with the lay counselor, learned self-care strategies to cope with illnesses, and increased engagement in pleasurable social and physical activities. Some participants reported needing assistance with managing financial strain and family conflicts. CONCLUSIONS: The lay-counselor-delivered intervention was well received. The relationship with the counselor and behavioral activation toward better self-care and more-pleasurable activities may have been keys to the intervention's success.

Incorporating prior information with fused sparse group lasso: Application to prediction of clinical measures from neuroimages.

Predicting clinical variables from whole-brain neuroimages is a high-dimensional problem that can potentially benefit from feature selection or extraction. Penalized regression is a popular embedded feature selection method for high-dimensional data. For neuroimaging applications, spatial regularization using the ℓ1 or ℓ2 norm of the image gradient has shown good performance, yielding smooth solutions in spatially contiguous brain regions. Enormous resources have been devoted to establishing structural and functional brain connectivity networks that can be used to define spatially distributed yet related groups of voxels. We propose using the fused sparse group lasso (FSGL) penalty to encourage structured, sparse, and interpretable solutions by incorporating prior information about spatial and group structure among voxels. We present optimization steps for FSGL penalized regression using the alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm. With simulation studies and in application to real functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange, we demonstrate conditions under which fusion and group penalty terms together outperform either of them alone.

Effect of a Lay Counselor Intervention on Prevention of Major Depression in Older Adults Living in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Preventing depression in older adults living in low- and middle-income countries is important because of the scarcity of treatment resources and the risk of disability, suicide, and dementia. Objective: To assess whether an intervention for depression prevention provided by lay counselors is effective in older adults from low- and middle-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: This parallel-group randomized clinical trial with masked outcome assessment was performed in 181 older adults (≥60 years) with subsyndromal depressive symptoms at rural and urban primary care clinics in Goa, India. The first participant entered the trial on March 31, 2015, and the last exited on June 2, 2017. Data analysis used the intention-to-treat approach. Interventions: Lay counselors provided problem-solving therapy, brief behavioral treatment for insomnia, education in self-care of common medical disorders such as diabetes, and assistance in accessing medical and social programs. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incidence of major depressive episodes. The study also assessed symptom change during 12 months (12-item General Health Questionnaire [GHQ-12]; score range of 0 to 12, with higher scores indicating greater symptoms of depression and anxiety), functional status (World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0; score range of 12 to 60, with higher scores indicating greater disability), cognition (Hindi Mini-Mental State Examination; score range of 0 to 30, with higher scores indicating better cognitive functioning), blood pressure, and body mass index to provide further clinical context. Results: The study enrolled 181 participants (mean [SD] age, 69.6 [7.2] years; 114 [63.0%] female): 91 to the intervention arm (depression in later life [DIL] intervention) and 90 to care as usual (CAU). Incident episodes of major depression were lower in the DIL intervention than in the CAU group (4.40% vs 14.44%; log-rank P = .04; number needed to treat, 9.95; 95% CI, 5.12-182.43). The 12-month Kaplan-Meier estimates of percentage of depression-free participants were 95.1% (95% CI, 90.5%-99.9%) in the DIL group vs 87.4% (95% CI, 80.4%-95.1%) in the CAU group. The incidence of depressive symptoms (GHQ-12) was also less (12-month mean difference, -1.18; 95% CI, -2.03 to -0.31; group × time interaction P < .001). There were no changes in measures of disability or cognition. The DIL intervention was associated with a significantly greater lowering of systolic blood pressure (12-month mean difference, -6.98; 95% CI, -11.96 to -2.01; group × time interaction P < .001) and change in body mass index (12-month mean difference, 0.23; 95% CI, -0.97 to 1.43; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: The DIL intervention is effective for preventing episodes of major depression in older persons with subsyndromal symptoms. If replicated, the DIL intervention may be effective in older adults living in low- and middle-income countries. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02145429.

Comparison of longitudinal Aß in nondemented elderly and Down syndrome.

Down syndrome (DS) predisposes individuals to early Alzheimer's disease (AD). Using Pittsburgh Compound B ([11C]PiB), a pattern of striatal amyloid beta (Aß) that is elevated relative to neocortical binding has been reported, similar to that of nondemented autosomal dominant AD mutation carriers. However, it is not known whether changes in striatal and neocortical [11C]PiB retention differ over time in a nondemented DS population when compared to changes in a nondemented elderly (NDE) population. The purpose of this work was to assess longitudinal changes in trajectories of Aß in a nondemented DS compared to an NDE cohort. The regional trajectories for anterior ventral striatum (AVS), frontal cortex, and precuneus [11C]PiB retention were explored over time using linear mixed effects models with fixed effects of time, cohort, and time-by-cohort interactions and subject as random effects. Significant differences between DS and NDE cohort trajectories for all 3 region of interests were observed (p < 0.05), with the DS cohort showing a faster accumulation in the AVS and slower accumulation in the frontal cortex and precuneus compared to the NDE cohort. These data add to the previously reported distinct pattern of early striatal deposition not commonly seen in sporadic AD by demonstrating that individuals with DS may also accumulate Aß at a rate faster in the AVS when compared to NDE subjects.

Effects of Radiotherapy in Early-Stage, Low-Recurrence Risk, Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer.

Background: Radiotherapy after breast conservation has become the standard of care. Prior meta-analyses on effects of radiotherapy predated availability of gene expression profiling (GEP) to assess recurrence risk and/or did not include all relevant outcomes. This analysis used GEP information with pooled individual-level data to evaluate the impact of omitting radiotherapy on recurrence and mortality. Methods: We considered trials that evaluated or administered radiotherapy after lumpectomy in women with low-risk breast cancer. Women included had undergone lumpectomy and were treated with hormonal therapy for stage I, ER+ and/or PR+, HER2- breast cancer with Oncotype scores no greater than 18. Recurrence-free interval (RFI), type of RFI (locoregional or distant), and breast cancer-specific and overall survival were compared between no radiotherapy and radiotherapy using adjusted Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The final sample included 1778 women from seven trials. Omission of radiotherapy was associated with an overall adjusted hazard ratio of 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38 to 4.89, P = .003) for RFI. There was a statistically significant increase in any first locoregional recurrence (P = .001), but not distant recurrence events (P = .90), or breast cancer-specific (P = .85) or overall survival (P = .61). Five-year RFI rate was high (93.5% for no radiotherapy vs 97.9% for radiotherapy; absolute reduction = 4.4%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 8.1%, P = .03). The effects of radiotherapy varied across subgroups, with lower RFI rates for those with Oncotype scores of less than 11 (vs 11-18), older (vs younger), and ER+/PR+ status (vs other). Conclusions: Omission of radiotherapy in hormone-sensitive patients with low recurrence risk may lead to a modest increase in locoregional recurrence event rates, but does not appear to increase the rate of distant recurrence or death.

Risk factors for locoregional disease recurrence after breast-conserving therapy in patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: An international collaboration and individual patient meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported a high risk of local disease recurrence (LR) and locoregional disease recurrence (LRR) in patients with breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) and breast-conserving therapy (BCT). The objective of the current study was to identify potential risk factors for LR and LRR after NCT and BCT. METHODS: Individual patient data sets from 9 studies were pooled. The outcomes of interest were the occurrence of LR and/or LRR. A 1-stage meta-analytic approach was used. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to identify factors that were predictive of LR and LRR, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 9 studies (4125 patients) provided their data sets. The 10-year LR rate was 6.5%, whereas the 10-year LRR rate was 10.3%. Four factors were found to be associated with a higher risk of LR: 1) estrogen receptor-negative disease; 2) cN + disease; 3) a lack of pathologic complete response in axilla (pN0); and 4) pN2 to pN3 disease. The predictive score for LR determined 3 risk groups: a low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk group with 10-year LR rates of 4.0%, 7.9%, and 20.4%, respectively. Two additional factors were found to be associated with an increased risk of LRR: cT3 to cT4 disease and a lack of pathologic complete response in the breast. The predictive score for LRR determined 3 risk groups; a low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk group with 10-year LRR rates of 3.2%, 10.1%, and 24.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: BCT after NCT appears to be an oncologically safe procedure for a large percentage of patients with breast cancer. Two easy-to-use clinical scores were developed that can help clinicians to identify patients at higher risk of LR and LRR after NCT and BCT and individualize the postoperative treatment plan and follow-up. Cancer 2018;124:2923-30. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Simulation Modeling of Cancer Clinical Trials: Application to Omitting Radiotherapy in Low-risk Breast Cancer.

Background: We used two models to simulate a proposed noninferiority trial of radiotherapy (RT) omission in low-risk invasive breast cancer to illustrate how modeling could be used to predict the trial's outcomes, inform trial design, and contribute to practice debates. Methods: The proposed trial was a prospective randomized trial of no-RT vs RT in women age 40 to 74 years undergoing lumpectomy and endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, stage I breast cancer with an Oncotype DX score of 18 or lower. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free interval (RFI), including locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer death. Noninferiority required the two-sided 90% confidence interval of the RFI hazard ratio (HR) for no-RT vs RT to be entirely below 1.7. Model inputs included published data. The trial was simulated 1000 times, and results were summarized as percent concluding noninferiority and mean (standard deviation) of hazard ratios for Model GE and Model M, respectively. Results: Noninferiority was demonstrated in 18.0% and 3.7% for the two models. The respective means (SD) of the RFI hazard ratios were 1.8 (0.7) and 2.4 (0.9); most were locoregional recurrences. The mean five-year RFI rates for no-RT vs RT (SD) were 92.7% (2.9%) vs 95.5% (2.2%) and 88.4% (2.0%) vs 94.5% (1.6%). Both models showed little or no difference in breast cancer-specific or overall survival. Alternative definitions of low risk based on combinations of age and grade produced similar results. Conclusions: The proposed trial was unlikely to show noninferiority of omitting radiotherapy even using alternative definitions of low-risk, as the endpoint included local recurrence. Future trials regarding radiotherapy should address absolute reduction in recurrence and impact of type of recurrence on the patient.

Efficacy of Chemotherapy for ER-Negative and ER-Positive Isolated Locoregional Recurrence of Breast Cancer: Final Analysis of the CALOR Trial.

Purpose Isolated locoregional recurrence (ILRR) predicts a high risk of developing breast cancer distant metastases and death. The Chemotherapy as Adjuvant for LOcally Recurrent breast cancer (CALOR) trial investigated the effectiveness of chemotherapy (CT) after local therapy for ILRR. A report at 5 years of median follow-up showed significant benefit of CT for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative ILRR, but additional follow-up was required in ER-positive ILRR. Patients and Methods CALOR was an open-label, randomized trial for patients with completely excised ILRR after unilateral breast cancer. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive CT or no CT and stratified by prior CT, hormone receptor status, and location of ILRR. Patients with hormone receptor-positive ILRR received adjuvant endocrine therapy. Radiation therapy was mandated for patients with microscopically involved margins, and anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 therapy was optional. End points were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival, and breast cancer-free interval. Results From August 2003 to January 2010, 162 patients were enrolled: 58 with ER-negative and 104 with ER-positive ILRR. At 9 years of median follow-up, 27 DFS events were observed in the ER-negative group and 40 in the ER-positive group. The hazard ratios (HR) of a DFS event were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.67; 10-year DFS, 70% v 34%, CT v no CT, respectively) in patients with ER-negative ILRR and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.00; 10-year DFS, 50% v 59%, respectively) in patients with ER-positive ILRR ( Pinteraction = .013). HRs were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.67) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.47 to 1.85), respectively, for breast cancer-free interval ( Pinteraction = .034) and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.19 to 1.20) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.32 to 1.55), respectively, for overall survival ( Pinteraction = .53). Results for the three end points were consistent in multivariable analyses adjusting for location of ILRR, prior CT, and interval from primary surgery. Conclusion The final analysis of CALOR confirms that CT benefits patients with resected ER-negative ILRR and does not support the use of CT for ER-positive ILRR.

Hemoglobin A1c Level and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence in Persons With Type 1 Diabetes: An Application of Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but hyperglycemia (measured by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level), which characterizes T1D, has itself been an inconsistent predictor of CVD incidence. However, only baseline HbA1c or a summary measure (e.g., mean level over follow-up) is usually analyzed. Joint models allow simultaneous modeling of repeatedly measured longitudinal covariates, using random effects, and time-to-event data. We evaluated data from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of childhood-onset T1D that has followed participants since 1986-1988 and has repeatedly found little association between baseline HbA1c or mean follow-up HbA1c and coronary artery disease incidence. Of 561 participants without CVD at baseline, 263 (46.9%) developed CVD over a period of 25 years (1986-2014). In joint models, each 1% unit increase in HbA1c trajectory was associated with a 1.26-fold increased risk of CVD (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.45), after adjustment for baseline levels of other CVD risk factors, and a 1.13-fold increased risk (95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.32) after adjustment for updated mean levels of other CVD risk factors. These findings, which support the need for good glycemic control to prevent CVD in persons with T1D, underscore the importance of utilizing methods incorporating within-subject variation over time when analyzing and interpreting longitudinal cohort study data.

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk.

NONPARAMETRIC MANOVA APPROACHES FOR NON-NORMAL MULTIVARIATE OUTCOMES WITH MISSING VALUES.

Between-group comparisons often entail many correlated response variables. The multivariate linear model, with its assumption of multivariate normality, is the accepted standard tool for these tests. When this assumption is violated, the nonparametric multivariate Kruskal-Wallis (MKW) test is frequently used. However, this test requires complete cases with no missing values in response variables. Deletion of cases with missing values likely leads to inefficient statistical inference. Here we extend the MKW test to retain information from partially-observed cases. Results of simulated studies and analysis of real data show that the proposed method provides adequate coverage and superior power to complete-case analyses.

Preventing Late-Life Depression: Lessons in Intervention Development From Goa, India.

We describe the development of an intervention strategy for the indicated prevention of depression in older adults living in Goa, India. Of particular novelty, the intervention is deliverable by lay health counselors and is grounded in problem solving therapy for primary care and brief behavioral treatment for insomnia. We have named the intervention "DIL" (the Hindi word for "heart" and an acronym for "depression in late life.") Additional DIL strategies include psychoeducation in self-management of co-occurring medical disorders such as diabetes mellitus, together with assistance in navigation to needed social and economic resources. We present the results of a preliminary open-trial case series involving 21 participants with subsyndromal symptoms of depression, demonstrating feasibility, acceptability, and benefit to participants. We then present the design of a larger confirmatory trial into which 181 participants have been enrolled. "DIL" is a novel and large depression prevention trial conducted with lay health counselors in a low-resource country. Its results are likely to have implications for depression prevention in older adults in other low- and middle-income countries and to inform contemporary models of the staging of depressive illness in later life.

Poor Prognosis After Second Locoregional Recurrences in the CALOR Trial.

BACKGROUND: Isolated locoregional recurrences (ILRRs) of breast cancer confer a significant risk for the development of distant metastasis. Management practices and second ILRR events in the Chemotherapy as Adjuvant for LOcally Recurrent breast cancer (CALOR) trial were investigated. METHODS: In this study, 162 patients with ILRR were randomly assigned to receive postoperative chemotherapy or no chemotherapy. Descriptive statistics characterize outcomes according to local therapy and the influence of hormone receptor status on subsequent recurrences. Competing risk regression models, Kaplan-Meier estimates, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between treatment, site of second recurrence, and outcome. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 4.9 years. Of the 98 patients who received breast-conserving primary surgery 89 had an ipsilateral-breast tumor recurrence. Salvage mastectomy was performed for 73 patients and repeat lumpectomy for 16 patients. Another eight patients had nodal ILRR, and one patient had chest wall ILRR. Among 64 patients whose primary surgery was mastectomy, 52 had chest wall/skin ILRR, and 12 had nodal ILRR. For 15 patients, a second ILRR developed a median of 1.6 years (range 0.08-4.8 years) after ILRR. All second ILRRs occurred for patients with progesterone receptor-negative ILRR. Death occurred for 7 (47 %) of 15 patients with a second ILRR and 19 (51 %) of 37 patients with a distant recurrence. As shown in the multivariable analysis, the significant predictors of survival after either a second ILRR or distant recurrence were chemotherapy for the primary cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 3.55; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.15-10.9; p = 0.03) and the interval (continuous) from the primary surgery (HR, 0.87; 95 % CI, 0.75-1.00; p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Second ILRRs represented about one third of all recurrence events after ILRR, and all were PR-negative. These second ILRRs and distant metastases portend an unfavorable outcome.

A Contemporary Estimate of Total Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Young Adults With Type 1 Diabetes: The Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

OBJECTIVE: The degree to which mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence remains elevated in young U.S. adults with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) is unclear. We determined contemporary rates for adults <45 years old with long-standing, childhood-onset T1DM from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Members of the EDC Study cohort <45 years old during the 1996-2012 follow-up period (n = 502) were studied. Mortality and CVD rates were calculated for those aged 30-39 and 40-44 years. Data from the background Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, population were used to calculate age- and sex-matched standardized mortality (SMR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS: In both age groups, the SMR for total mortality was ∼5 (95% CIs: 30-39-year-olds, 2.8, 7.2; 40-44-year-olds, 3.4, 7.8). CVD mortality SMRs ranged from 19 (95% CI 11, 32) to 33 (95% CI 17, 59). Hospitalized CVD IRR was ∼8 (95% CIs: 30-39-year-olds, 2.5, 18.9; 40-44-year-olds, 4.5, 12.8); revascularization procedures account for much of the increased risk. For all outcomes, the relative risk was larger in women. Participants aged 30-39 years had 6.3% (95% CI 3.8, 9.8) absolute 10-year CVD risk, approaching the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association-recommended cut point of 7.5% for initiation of statin therapy in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Total and CVD mortality and hospitalized CVD are all significantly increased in this contemporary U.S. cohort of young adults with long-standing T1DM. These findings support more aggressive risk factor management in T1DM, especially among women.