Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

The Tuberculosis Sentinel Research Network (TB-SRN) of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA): protocol for a prospective cohort study in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading infectious cause of death globally. It is the most common opportunistic infection in people living with HIV, and the most common cause of their morbidity and mortality. Following TB treatment, surviving individuals may be at risk for post-TB lung disease. The TB Sentinel Research Network (TB-SRN) provides a platform for coordinated observational TB research within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective, observational cohort study will assess treatment and post-treatment outcomes of pulmonary TB (microbiologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed) among 2600 people aged ≥15 years, with and without HIV coinfection, consecutively enrolled at 16 sites in 11 countries, across 6 of IeDEA's global regions. Data regarding clinical and sociodemographic factors, mental health, health-related quality of life, pulmonary function, and laboratory and radiographic findings will be collected using standardised questionnaires and data collection tools, beginning from the initiation of TB treatment and through 12 months after the end of treatment. Data will be aggregated for proposed analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained at all implementing study sites, including the Vanderbilt University Medical Center Human Research Protections Programme. Participants will provide informed consent; for minors, this includes both adolescent assent and the consent of their parent or primary caregiver. Protections for vulnerable groups are included, in alignment with local standards and considerations at sites. Procedures for requesting use and analysis of TB-SRN data are publicly available. Findings from TB-SRN analyses will be shared with national TB programmes to inform TB programming and policy, and disseminated at regional and global conferences and other venues.

Authorship inequalities in global health research: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS conducts research in several regions, including in Southern Africa. We assessed authorship inequalities for the Southern African region, which is led by South African and Swiss investigators. METHODS: We analysed authorships of publications from 2007 to 2020 by gender, country income group, time and citation impact. We used 2020 World Bank categories to define income groups and the relative citation ratio (RCR) to assess citation impact. Authorship parasitism was defined as articles without authors from the countries where the study was conducted. A regression model examined the probability of different authorship positions. RESULTS: We included 313 articles. Of the 1064 contributing authors, 547 (51.4%) were women, and 223 (21.0%) were from 32 low-income/lower middle-income countries (LLMICs), 269 (25.3%) were from 13 upper middle-income countries and 572 (53.8%) were from 25 high-income countries (HICs). Most articles (150/157, 95.5%) reporting data from Southern Africa included authors from all participating countries. Women were more likely to be the first author than men (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.83) but less likely to be last authors (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.99). Compared with HIC, LLMIC authors were less likely to publish as first (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41) or last author (OR 0.20; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.42). The proportion of women and LLMIC first and last authors increased over time. The RCR tended to be higher, indicating greater impact, if first or last authors were from HIC (p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of a global health collaboration co-led by South African and Swiss investigators showed little evidence of authorship parasitism. There were stark inequalities in authorship position, with women occupying more first and men more last author positions and researchers from LLMIC being 'stuck in the middle' on the byline. Global health research collaborations should monitor, analyse and address authorship inequalities.

Back-to-Africa introductions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the main cause of tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania over a six-year period, using 1,082 unique patient-derived MTBC whole-genome sequences (WGS) and associated clinical data. We show that the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam is dominated by multiple MTBC genotypes introduced to Tanzania from different parts of the world during the last 300 years. The most common MTBC genotypes deriving from these introductions exhibited differences in transmission rates and in the duration of the infectious period, but little differences in overall fitness, as measured by the effective reproductive number. Moreover, measures of disease severity and bacterial load indicated no differences in virulence between these genotypes during active TB. Instead, the combination of an early introduction and a high transmission rate accounted for the high prevalence of L3.1.1, the most dominant MTBC genotype in this setting. Yet, a longer co-existence with the host population did not always result in a higher transmission rate, suggesting that distinct life-history traits have evolved in the different MTBC genotypes. Taken together, our results point to bacterial factors as important determinants of the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam.

Design and implementation of a global site assessment survey among HIV clinics participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) research consortium.

INTRODUCTION: Timely descriptions of HIV service characteristics and their evolution over time across diverse settings are important for monitoring the scale-up of evidence-based program strategies, understanding the implementation landscape, and examining service delivery factors that influence HIV care outcomes. METHODS: The International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium undertakes periodic cross-sectional surveys on service availability and care at participating HIV treatment sites to characterize trends and inform the scientific agenda for HIV care and implementation science communities. IeDEA's 2020 general site assessment survey was developed through a consultative, 18-month process that engaged diverse researchers in identifying content from previous surveys that should be retained for longitudinal analyses and in developing expanded and new content to address gaps in the literature. An iterative review process was undertaken to standardize the format of new survey questions and align them with best practices in survey design and measurement and lessons learned through prior IeDEA site assessment surveys. RESULTS: The survey questionnaire developed through this process included eight content domains covered in prior surveys (patient population, staffing and community linkages, HIV testing and diagnosis, new patient care, treatment monitoring and retention, routine HIV care and screening, pharmacy, record-keeping and patient tracing), along with expanded content related to antiretroviral therapy (differentiated service delivery and roll-out of dolutegravir-based regimens); mental health and substance use disorders; care for pregnant/postpartum women and HIV-exposed infants; tuberculosis preventive therapy; and pediatric/adolescent tuberculosis care; and new content related to Kaposi's sarcoma diagnostics, the impact of COVID-19 on service delivery, and structural barriers to HIV care. The survey was distributed to 238 HIV treatment sites in late 2020, with a 95% response rate. CONCLUSION: IeDEA's approach for site survey development has broad relevance for HIV research networks and other priority health conditions.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB services at ART programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a multi-cohort survey.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 stretched healthcare systems to their limits, particularly in settings with a pre-existing high burden of infectious diseases, including HIV and tuberculosis (TB). We studied the impact of COVID-19 on TB services at antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We surveyed ART clinics providing TB services in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium in Africa and the Asia-Pacific until July 2021 (TB diagnoses until the end of 2021). We collected site-level data using standardized questionnaires. RESULTS: Of 46 participating ART clinics, 32 (70%) were in Africa and 14 (30%) in the Asia-Pacific; 52% provided tertiary care. Most clinics (85%) reported disrupted routine HIV care services during the pandemic, both in Africa (84%) and the Asia-Pacific (86%). The most frequently reported impacts were on staff (52%) and resource shortages (37%; protective clothing, face masks and disinfectants). Restrictions in TB health services were observed in 12 clinics (26%), mainly reduced access to TB diagnosis and postponed follow-up visits (6/12, 50% each), and restrictions in TB laboratory services (22%). Restrictions of TB services were addressed by dispensing TB drugs for longer periods than usual (7/12, 58%), providing telehealth services (3/12, 25%) and with changes in directly observed therapy (DOT) (e.g. virtual DOT, 3/12). The number of TB diagnoses at participating clinics decreased by 21% in 2020 compared to 2019; the decline was more pronounced in tertiary than primary/secondary clinics (24% vs. 12%) and in sites from the Asia-Pacific compared to Africa (46% vs. 14%). In 2021, TB diagnoses continued to decline in Africa (-8%) but not in the Asia-Pacific (+62%) compared to 2020. During the pandemic, new infection control measures were introduced or intensified at the clinics, including wearing face masks, hand sanitation and patient triage. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to staff shortages, reduced access to TB care and delays in follow-up visits for people with TB across IeDEA sites in Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Increased efforts are needed to restore and secure ongoing access to essential TB services in these contexts.

High Unreported Mortality in Children and Youth (<25 Years) Living With HIV Who Were Lost to Care From Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Southern Africa: Results From a Multicountry Tracing Study.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy program mortality maybe underestimated if deceased patients are misclassified as lost. METHODS: We used two-stage inverse probability weighting to account for probability of being: sampled for tracing and found by the tracer. RESULTS: Among 680 children and youth aged <25 years on antiretroviral therapy who were lost and traced in Southern Africa between October 2017 and November 2019, estimated mortality was high at 9.1% (62/680). After adjusting for measured covariates and within-site clustering, mortality remained lower for young adults aged 20-24 years compared with infants aged <2 years [adjusted hazard ratio: 0.40 (95% confidence interval: 0.31 to 0.51)]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms high unreported mortality in children and youth who are lost and the need for tracing to assess vital status among those who are lost to accurately report on program mortality.

Availability and experiences of differentiated antiretroviral therapy delivery at HIV care facilities in rural Zimbabwe: a mixed-method study.

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe adopted differentiated HIV care policies in 2015 to promote client-centred care and relieve strain on health facilities. We examined the availability, experiences and perceptions of differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery in rural Zimbabwe following the policy adoption. METHODS: We undertook a cross-sectional mixed methods study in all the 26 facilities providing HIV care in a rural district in Zimbabwe. We collected quantitative data about ART delivery and visit durations from 31 healthcare providers and a purposive stratified sample of 378 clients obtaining ART either through routine care or differentiated ART delivery models. We performed 26 semi-structured interviews among healthcare providers and seven focus group discussions (FGDs) among clients to elicit their perceptions and experiences of ART delivery. Data were collected in 2019, with one follow-up FGD in 2021. We analysed the transcripts thematically, with inductive coding, to identify emerging themes. RESULTS: Twenty facilities (77%) offered at least one differentiated ART delivery models, including community ART refill groups (CARGs; 13 facilities, 50%), fast-track refill (8, 31%), family refill (6, 23%) or club refill (1, 4%). Thirteen facilities (50%) offered only one model. The median visit duration was 28 minutes (interquartile range [IQR]: 16-62). Participants in fast-track had the shortest visit durations (18 minutes, IQR: 11-24). Confidentiality and disclosure of HIV status, travelling long distances, travel costs and waiting times were the main issues influencing clients' views on differentiated ART delivery. Fast-track refill was perceived as the preferred model of clients for its limited involuntary disclosure and efficiency. In contrast, group- and community-based refill models reduced travel costs but were felt to be associated with involuntary disclosure of HIV status, which could discourage clients. Healthcare providers also experienced an additional workload when offering facility-based group models, such as CARGs. CONCLUSIONS: Differentiated ART delivery models were widely available in this rural setting, but most facilities did not offer a choice of models to address clients' diverse preferences. A minority offered fast-track refills, although this model was often mentioned as desirable. Confidentiality, travel expenses and client waiting times are key elements to consider when planning and rolling out differentiated HIV care.

Estimating Tuberculosis Transmission Risks in a Primary Care Clinic in South Africa: Modeling of Environmental and Clinical Data.

BACKGROUND: Congregate settings, such as healthcare clinics, may play an essential role in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Using patient and environmental data, we studied transmission at a primary care clinic in South Africa. METHODS: We collected patient movements, cough frequency, and clinical data, and measured indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, relative humidity, and Mtb genomes in the air. We used negative binomial regression model to investigate associations. RESULTS: We analyzed 978 unique patients who contributed 14 795 data points. The median patient age was 33 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-41) years, and 757 (77.4%) were female. Overall, median CO2 levels were 564 (IQR 495-646) parts per million and were highest in the morning. Median number of coughs per day was 466 (IQR, 368-503), and overall median Mtb DNA copies/µL/day was 4.2 (IQR, 1.2-9.5). We found an increased presence of Mtb DNA in the air of 32% (95% credible interval, 7%-63%) per 100 additional young adults (aged 15-29 years) and 1% (0-2%) more Mtb DNA per 10% increase of relative humidity. Estimated cumulative transmission risks for patients attending the clinic monthly for at least 1 hour range between 9% and 29%. CONCLUSIONS: We identified young adults and relative humidity as potentially important factors for transmission risks in healthcare clinics. Our approach should be used to detect transmission and evaluate infection control interventions.

Tracing People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Who Are Lost to Follow-up at Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Southern Africa: A Sampling-Based Cohort Study in 6 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Attrition threatens the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In this cohort study, we examined outcomes of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) during 2014-2017 at ART programs in Southern Africa. METHODS: We confirmed LTFU (missed appointment for ≥60 or ≥90 days, according to local guidelines) by checking medical records and used a standardized protocol to trace a weighted random sample of PLHIV who were LTFU in 8 ART programs in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, 2017-2019. We ascertained vital status and identified predictors of mortality using logistic regression, adjusted for sex, age, time on ART, time since LTFU, travel time, and urban or rural setting. RESULTS: Among 3256 PLHIV, 385 (12%) were wrongly categorized as LTFU and 577 (17%) had missing contact details. We traced 2294 PLHIV (71%) by phone calls, home visits, or both: 768 (34% of 2294) were alive and in care, including 385 (17%) silent transfers to another clinic; 528 (23%) were alive without care or unknown care; 252 (11%) had died. Overall, the status of 1323 (41% of 3256) PLHIV remained unknown. Mortality was higher in men than women, higher in children than in young people or adults, and higher in PLHIV who had been on ART <1 year or LTFU ≥1 year and those living farther from the clinic or in rural areas. Results were heterogeneous across sites. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the urgent need for better medical record systems at HIV clinics and rapid tracing of PLHIV who are LTFU.

Integrating services for HIV and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: A global cross-sectional survey among ART clinics in low- and middle-income countries.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among PLHIV and multidrug-resistant-TB (MDR-TB) is associated with high mortality. We examined the management for adult PLHIV coinfected with MDR-TB at ART clinics in lower income countries. Between 2019 and 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional survey at 29 ART clinics in high TB burden countries within the global IeDEA network. We used structured questionnaires to collect clinic-level data on the TB and HIV services and the availability of diagnostic tools and treatment for MDR-TB. Of 29 ART clinics, 25 (86%) were in urban areas and 19 (66%) were tertiary care clinics. Integrated HIV-TB services were reported at 25 (86%) ART clinics for pan-susceptible TB, and 14 (48%) clinics reported full MDR-TB services on-site, i.e. drug susceptibility testing [DST] and MDR-TB treatment. Some form of DST was available on-site at 22 (76%) clinics, while the remainder referred testing off-site. On-site DST for second-line drugs was available at 9 (31%) clinics. MDR-TB treatment was delivered on-site at 15 (52%) clinics, with 10 individualizing treatment based on DST results and five using standardized regimens alone. Bedaquiline was routinely available at 5 (17%) clinics and delamanid at 3 (10%) clinics. Although most ART clinics reported having integrated HIV and TB services, few had fully integrated MDR-TB services. There is a continued need for increased access to diagnostic and treatment options for MDR-TB patients and better integration of MDR-TB services into the HIV care continuum.

Global HIV mortality trends among children on antiretroviral treatment corrected for under-reported deaths: an updated analysis of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS collaboration.

INTRODUCTION: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) projections of paediatric HIV prevalence and deaths rely on the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium for mortality estimates among children living with HIV (CHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Previous estimates, based on data through 2014, may no longer be accurate due to expanded paediatric HIV care and treatment eligibility, and the possibility of unreported deaths in CHIV considered lost to follow-up (LTFU). We therefore estimated all-cause mortality and its trends in CHIV (<15 years old) on ART using extended and new IeDEA data. METHODS: We analysed (i) IeDEA observational data from CHIV in routine care globally, and (ii) novel data from an IeDEA tracing study that determined outcomes in a sample of CHIV after being LTFU in southern Africa. We included 45,711 CHIV on ART during 2004 to 2017 at 72 programmes in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. We used mixed effects Poisson regression to estimate mortality by age, sex, CD4 at ART start, time on ART, region and calendar year. For Africa, in an adjusted analysis that accounts for unreported deaths among those LTFU, we first modified the routine data by simulating mortality outcomes within six months after LTFU, based on a Gompertz survival model fitted to the tracing data (n = 221). RESULTS: Observed mortality rates were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.7 to 1.9) and 9.4 (6.3 to 13.4) deaths per 100 person-years in the routine and tracing data, respectively. We found strong evidence of higher mortality at shorter ART durations, lower CD4 values, and in infancy. Averaging over covariate patterns, the adjusted mortality rate was 54% higher than the unadjusted rate. In unadjusted analyses, mortality reduced by an average 60% and 73% from 2005 to 2017, within and outside of Africa, respectively. In the adjusted analysis for Africa, this temporal reduction was 42%. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among CHIV have decreased substantially over time. However, when accounting for worse outcomes among those LTFU, mortality estimates increased and temporal improvements were slightly reduced, suggesting caution in interpreting analyses based only on programme data. The improved and updated IeDEA estimates on mortality among CHIV on ART support UNAIDS efforts to accurately model global HIV statistics.

Mortality from drug-resistant tuberculosis in high-burden countries comparing routine drug susceptibility testing with whole-genome sequencing: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drug resistance threatens global tuberculosis control. We aimed to examine mortality in patients with tuberculosis from high-burden countries, according to concordance or discordance of results from drug susceptibility testing done locally and whole-genome sequencing (WGS). METHODS: In this multicentre cohort study, we collected pulmonary Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clinical data from individuals with tuberculosis from antiretroviral therapy programmes and tuberculosis clinics in Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Thailand, stratified by HIV status and drug resistance. Sites tested drug susceptibility using routinely available methods. WGS was done on Illumina HiSeq 2500 in the USA and Switzerland, and TBprofiler was used to analyse the genomes. We included individuals aged 16 years or older with pulmonary tuberculosis (bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed). We analysed mortality in multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for sex, age, HIV status, history of tuberculosis, and sputum positivity. FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2014, and July 4, 2016, of 634 patients included in our previous analysis, we included 582 patients with tuberculosis (median age 33 years [IQR 27-43], 225 [39%] women, and 247 [42%] HIV-positive). Based on WGS, 339 (58%) isolates were pan-susceptible, 35 (6%) monoresistant, 146 (25%) multidrug-resistant, and 24 (4%) pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR) or XDR. The analysis of mortality was based on 530 patients; 63 (12%) died and 77 (15%) patients received inappropriate treatment. Mortality ranged from 6% (18 of 310) in patients with pan-susceptible tuberculosis to 39% (nine of 23) in patients with pre-XDR or XDR tuberculosis. The adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 4·92 (95% CI 2·47-9·78) among undertreated patients, compared with appropriately treated patients. INTERPRETATION: In seven countries with a high burden of tuberculosis, we observed discrepancies between drug resistance patterns obtained locally and WGS. The underdiagnosis of drug resistance resulted in inappropriate treatment and higher mortality. WGS can provide accurate and detailed drug resistance information required to improve the outcomes of drug-resistant tuberculosis in high-burden settings. Our results support WHO's call for point-of-care tests based on WGS. FUNDING: National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation, and Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria.

Novel approach to estimate tuberculosis transmission in primary care clinics in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol of a prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is difficult to measure, and its drivers are not well understood. The effectiveness of infection control measures at healthcare clinics and the most appropriate intervention strategies to interrupt transmission are unclear. We propose a novel approach using clinical, environmental and position-tracking data to study the risk of TB transmission at primary care clinics in TB and HIV high burden settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We describe a novel and rapid study design to assess risk factors for airborne TB transmission at primary care clinics in high-burden settings. The study protocol combines a range of different measurements. We will collect anonymous data on the number of patients, waiting times and patient movements using video sensors. Also, we will collect acoustic sound recordings to determine the frequency and intensity of coughing. Environmental data will include indoor carbon dioxide levels (CO2 in parts per million) and relative humidity. We will also extract routinely collected clinical data from the clinic records. The number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis particles in the air will be ascertained from dried filter units using highly sensitive digital droplet PCR. We will calculate rebreathed air volume based on people density and CO2 levels and develop a mathematical model to estimate the risk of TB transmission. The mathematical model can then be used to estimate the effect of possible interventions such as separating patient flows or improving ventilation in reducing transmission. The feasibility of our approach was recently demonstrated in a pilot study in a primary care clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the University of Cape Town (HREC/REF no. 228/2019), the City of Cape Town (ID-8139) and the Ethics Committee of the Canton Bern (2019-02131), Switzerland. The results will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals.

HIV Coinfection Is Associated with Low-Fitness rpoB Variants in Rifampicin-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

We analyzed 312 drug-resistant genomes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates collected from HIV-coinfected and HIV-negative TB patients from nine countries with a high tuberculosis burden. We found that rifampicin-resistant M. tuberculosis strains isolated from HIV-coinfected patients carried disproportionally more resistance-conferring mutations in rpoB that are associated with a low fitness in the absence of the drug, suggesting these low-fitness rpoB variants can thrive in the context of reduced host immunity.

Diagnosis and clinical outcomes of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in antiretroviral therapy programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a multicohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is difficult to confirm bacteriologically and requires specific diagnostic capacities. Diagnosis can be especially challenging in under-resourced settings. We studied diagnostic modalities and clinical outcomes of EPTB compared to pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among HIV-positive adults in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: We collected data from HIV-positive TB patients (≥16 years) in 22 ART programmes participating in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Caribbean, Central and South America regions between 2012 and 2014. We categorized TB as PTB or EPTB (EPTB included mixed PTB/EPTB). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess associations with clinical outcomes. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We analysed 2695 HIV-positive TB patients. Median age was 36 years (interquartile range (IQR) 30 to 43), 1102 were female (41%), and the median CD4 count at TB treatment start was 114 cells/µL (IQR 40 to 248). Overall, 1930 had PTB (72%), and 765 EPTB (28%). Among EPTB patients, the most frequently involved sites were the lymph nodes (24%), pleura (15%), abdomen (11%) and meninges (6%). The majority of PTB (1123 of 1930, 58%) and EPTB (582 of 765, 76%) patients were diagnosed based on clinical criteria. Bacteriological confirmation (using positive smear microscopy, culture, Xpert MTB/RIF, or other nucleic acid amplification tests result) was obtained in 897 of 1557 PTB (52%) and 183 of 438 EPTB (42%) patients. EPTB was not associated with higher mortality compared to PTB (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), but TB meningitis was (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.1). Bacteriological confirmation was associated with reduced mortality among PTB patients (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6 to 0.8) and EPTB patients (aOR 0.3 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8) compared to TB patients with a negative test result. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis of EPTB and PTB at ART programmes in LMIC was mainly based on clinical criteria. Greater availability and usage of TB diagnostic tests would improve the diagnosis and clinical outcomes of both EPTB and PTB.

Drug susceptibility testing and mortality in patients treated for tuberculosis in high-burden countries: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drug resistance is a challenge for the global control of tuberculosis. We examined mortality in patients with tuberculosis from high-burden countries, according to concordance or discordance of results from drug susceptibility testing done locally and in a reference laboratory. METHODS: This multicentre cohort study was done in Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Peru, and Thailand. We collected Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clinical data from adult patients aged 16 years or older. Patients were stratified by HIV status and tuberculosis drug resistance. Molecular or phenotypic drug susceptibility testing was done locally and at the Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria, Zurich, Switzerland. We examined mortality during treatment according to drug susceptibility test results and treatment adequacy in multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, sputum microscopy, and HIV status. FINDINGS: We obtained M tuberculosis isolates from 871 patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2016. After exclusion of 237 patients, 634 patients with tuberculosis were included in this analysis; the median age was 33·2 years (IQR 26·9-42·5), 239 (38%) were women, 272 (43%) were HIV-positive, and 69 (11%) patients died. Based on the reference laboratory drug susceptibility test, 394 (62%) strains were pan-susceptible, 45 (7%) monoresistant, 163 (26%) multidrug-resistant (MDR), and 30 (5%) had pre-extensively or extensively drug resistant (pre-XDR or XDR) tuberculosis. Results of reference and local laboratories were concordant for 513 (81%) of 634 patients and discordant for 121 (19%) of 634. Overall, sensitivity to detect any resistance was 90·8% (95% CI 86·5-94·2) and specificity 84·3% (80·3-87·7). Mortality ranged from 6% (20 of 336) in patients with pan-susceptible tuberculosis treated according to WHO guidelines to 57% (eight of 14) in patients with resistant strains who were under-treated. In logistic regression models, compared with concordant drug susceptibility test results, the adjusted odds ratio of death was 7·33 (95% CI 2·70-19·95) for patients with discordant results potentially leading to under-treatment. INTERPRETATION: Inaccurate drug susceptibility testing by comparison with a reference standard leads to under-treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis and increased mortality. Rapid molecular drug susceptibility test of first-line and second-line drugs at diagnosis is required to improve outcomes in patients with MDR tuberculosis and pre-XDR or XDR tuberculosis. FUNDING: National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria.

Whole-Genome Sequencing for Drug Resistance Profile Prediction in Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Whole-genome sequencing allows rapid detection of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates. However, the availability of high-quality data linking quantitative phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) and genomic data have thus far been limited. We determined drug resistance profiles of 176 genetically diverse clinical M. tuberculosis isolates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Peru, Thailand, and Switzerland by quantitative phenotypic DST for 11 antituberculous drugs using the BD Bactec MGIT 960 system and 7H10 agar dilution to generate a cross-validated phenotypic DST readout. We compared DST results with predicted drug resistance profiles inferred by whole-genome sequencing. Classification of strains by the two phenotypic DST methods into resistotype/wild-type populations was concordant in 73 to 99% of cases, depending on the drug. Our data suggest that the established critical concentration (5 mg/liter) for ethambutol resistance (MGIT 960 system) is too high and misclassifies strains as susceptible, unlike 7H10 agar dilution. Increased minimal inhibitory concentrations were explained by mutations identified by whole-genome sequencing. Using whole-genome sequences, we were able to predict quantitative drug resistance levels for the majority of drug resistance mutations. Predicting quantitative levels of drug resistance by whole-genome sequencing was partially limited due to incompletely understood drug resistance mechanisms. The overall sensitivity and specificity of whole-genome-based DST were 86.8% and 94.5%, respectively. Despite some limitations, whole-genome sequencing has the potential to infer resistance profiles without the need for time-consuming phenotypic methods.

Seasonal variations in tuberculosis diagnosis among HIV-positive individuals in Southern Africa: analysis of cohort studies at antiretroviral treatment programmes.

OBJECTIVES: Seasonal variations in tuberculosis diagnoses have been attributed to seasonal climatic changes and indoor crowding during colder winter months. We investigated trends in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis at antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa. SETTING: Five ART programmes participating in the International Epidemiology Database to Evaluate AIDS in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS: We analysed data of 331 634 HIV-positive adults (>15 years), who initiated ART between January 2004 and December 2014. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: We calculated aggregated averages in monthly counts of PTB diagnoses and ART initiations. To account for time trends, we compared deviations of monthly event counts to yearly averages, and calculated correlation coefficients. We used multivariable regressions to assess associations between deviations of monthly ART initiation and PTB diagnosis counts from yearly averages, adjusted for monthly air temperatures and geographical latitude. As controls, we used Kaposi sarcoma and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) diagnoses. RESULTS: All programmes showed monthly variations in PTB diagnoses that paralleled fluctuations in ART initiations, with recurrent patterns across 2004-2014. The strongest drops in PTB diagnoses occurred in December, followed by April-May in Zimbabwe and South Africa. This corresponded to holiday seasons, when clinical activities are reduced. We observed little monthly variation in ART initiations and PTB diagnoses in Zambia. Correlation coefficients supported parallel trends in ART initiations and PTB diagnoses (correlation coefficient: 0.28, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.35, P<0.001). Monthly temperatures and latitude did not substantially change regression coefficients between ART initiations and PTB diagnoses. Trends in Kaposi sarcoma and EPTB diagnoses similarly followed changes in ART initiations throughout the year. CONCLUSIONS: Monthly variations in PTB diagnosis at ART programmes in Southern Africa likely occurred regardless of seasonal variations in temperatures or latitude and reflected fluctuations in clinical activities and changes in health-seeking behaviour throughout the year, rather than climatic factors.

HIV viral load as an independent risk factor for tuberculosis in South Africa: collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic immune activation due to ongoing HIV replication may lead to impaired immune responses against opportunistic infections such as tuberculosis (TB). We studied the role of HIV replication as a risk factor for incident TB after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We included all HIV-positive adult patients (≥16 years) in care between 2000 and 2014 at three ART programmes in South Africa. Patients with previous TB were excluded. Missing CD4 cell counts and HIV-RNA viral loads at ART start (baseline) and during follow-up were imputed. We used parametric survival models to assess TB incidence (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) by CD4 cell and HIV-RNA levels, and estimated the rate ratios for TB by including age, sex, baseline viral loads, CD4 cell counts, and WHO clinical stage in the model. We also used Poisson general additive regression models with time-updated CD4 and HIV-RNA values, adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 44,260 patients with a median follow-up time of 2.7 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.0-5.0); 3,819 incident TB cases were recorded (8.6%). At baseline, the median age was 34 years (IQR 28-41); 30,675 patients (69.3%) were female. The median CD4 cell count was 156 cells/µL (IQR 79-229) and the median HIV-RNA viral load 58,000 copies/mL (IQR 6,000-240,000). Overall TB incidence was 26.2/1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.3-27.0). Compared to the lowest viral load category (0-999 copies/mL), the adjusted rate ratio for TB was 1.41 (95% CI 1.15-1.75, p < 0.001) in the highest group (>10,000 copies/mL). Time-updated analyses for CD4/HIV-RNA confirmed the association of viral load with the risk for TB. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that ongoing HIV replication is an important risk factor for TB, regardless of CD4 cell counts, and underline the importance of early ART start and retention on ART.