Methodological advances for hypothesis-driven ethnobiology.

Ethnobiology as a discipline has evolved increasingly to embrace theory-inspired and hypothesis-driven approaches to study why and how local people choose plants and animals they interact with and use for their livelihood. However, testing complex hypotheses or a network of ethnobiological hypotheses is challenging, particularly for data sets with non-independent observations due to species phylogenetic relatedness or socio-relational links between participants. Further, to account fully for the dynamics of local ecological knowledge, it is important to include the spatially explicit distribution of knowledge, changes in knowledge, and knowledge transmission and use. To promote the use of advanced statistical modelling approaches that address these limitations, we synthesize methodological advances for hypothesis-driven research in ethnobiology while highlighting the need for more figures than tables and more tables than text in ethnobiological literature. We present the ethnobiological motivations for conducting generalized linear mixed-effect modelling, structural equation modelling, phylogenetic generalized least squares, social network analysis, species distribution modelling, and predictive modelling. For each element of the proposed ethnobiologists quantitative toolbox, we present practical applications along with scripts for a widespread implementation. Because these statistical modelling approaches are rarely taught in most ethnobiological programs but are essential for careers in academia or industry, it is critical to promote workshops and short courses focused on these advanced methods. By embracing these quantitative modelling techniques without sacrificing qualitative approaches which provide essential context, ethnobiology will progress further towards an expansive interaction with other disciplines.

Savanna tree evolutionary ages inform the reconstruction of the paleoenvironment of our hominin ancestors.

Ideas on hominin evolution have long invoked the emergence from forests into open habitats as generating selection for traits such as bipedalism and dietary shifts. Though controversial, the savanna hypothesis continues to motivate research into the palaeo-environments of Africa. Reconstruction of these ancient environments has depended heavily on carbon isotopic analysis of fossil bones and palaeosols. The sparsity of the fossil record, however, imposes a limit to the strength of inference that can be drawn from such data. Time-calibrated phylogenies offer an additional tool for dating the spread of savanna habitat. Here, using the evolutionary ages of African savanna trees, we suggest an initial tropical or subtropical expansion of savanna between 10 and 15 Ma, which then extended to higher latitudes, reaching southern Africa ca. 3 Ma. Our phylogenetic estimates of the origin and latitudinal spread of savannas broadly correspond with isotopic age estimates and encompass the entire hominin fossil record. Our results are consistent with the savanna hypothesis of early hominin evolution and reignite the debate on the drivers of savanna expansion. Our analysis demonstrates the utility of phylogenetic proxies for dating major ecological transitions in geological time, especially in regions where fossils are rare or absent or occur in discontinuous sediments.

Expected spatial patterns of alien woody plants in South Africa's protected areas under current scenario of climate change.

Although protected areas (PAs) are declared to provide sanctuaries for biodiversity, they are increasingly threatened by the synergistic effects of anthropic factors, invasive alien species and climate change. Consequently, interventions are required to minimize the impacts of these threats on PAs' integrity. To inform these interventions in the South African context and under the current climate change scenario, we tested for geographic patterns of alien woody species across the network of 1,453 PAs using three alien invasion indices - alien species abundance, invaded area ratio and alien species richness. Our analysis shows that, under current climate change scenario, none of the PAs would be effective in shielding against alien plants and PAs that are geographically close tend to share similar invasion patterns. In addition, PAs that are hotspots of alien species are also geographically clustered but these findings are biome-dependent. Our outlier analysis reveals not only an island of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species, but also identifies some alien-poor PAs. We suggest that PAs that are hotspots of alien species as well as outliers of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species should be priority in monitoring and invasion control programmes in the context of the ongoing climate change.

DNA barcoding of southern African crustaceans reveals a mix of invasive species and potential cryptic diversity.

Globally, crustaceans represent one of the most taxonomically diverse and economically important invertebrate group. Notwithstanding, the diversity within this group is poorly known because most crustaceans are often associated with varied habits, forms, sizes and habitats; making species identification by conventional methods extremely challenging. In addition, progress towards understanding the diversity within this group especially in southern Africa has been severely hampered by the declining number of trained taxonomists, the presence of invasive alien species, over exploitation, etc. However, the advent of molecular techniques such as "DNA barcoding and Metabarcoding" can accelerate species identification and the discovery of new species. To contribute to the growing body of knowledge on crustacean diversity, we collected data from five southern African countries and used a DNA barcoding approach to build the first DNA barcode reference library for southern African crustaceans. We tested the reliability of this DNA barcode reference library to facilitate species identification using two approaches. We recovered high efficacy of specimen identification/discrimination; supported by both barcode gap and tree-base species identification methods. In addition, we identified alien invasive species and specimens with 'no ID" in our DNA barcode reference library. The later; highlighting specimens requiring (i) further investigation and/or (ii) the potential presence of cryptic diversity or (iii) misidentifications. This unique data set although with some sampling gaps presents many opportunities for exploring the effect and extent of invasive alien species, the role of the pet trade as a pathway for crustacean species introduction into novel environments, sea food authentication, phylogenetic relationships within the larger crustacean groupings and the discovery of new species.

Phylogenetically diverse native systems are more resistant to invasive plant species on Robben Island, South Africa 1.

Alien invasive species are problematic both economically and ecologically, particularly on islands. As such, understanding how they interact with their environment is necessary to inform invasive species management. Here, we ask the following questions: What are the main functional traits that correlate with invasion success of alien plants on Robben Island? How does phylogenetic structure shape biotic interactions on the island? Using multiple approaches to explore these questions, we found that alien invasive species flower later during the year and for longer period, although flowering phenology was sensitive to alternative starting date. Additionally, we observed that alien invasive species are mostly abiotically pollinated and are generally hermaphroditic whilst their native counterparts rely on biotic pollinators, flower earlier, and are generally dioecious, suggesting that alien invasive and native species use different ecological niches. Furthermore, we found a facilitative interaction between an alien invasive legume and other invasive plants as predicted by the invasional meltdown hypothesis, but this does not influence the phylogenetic structure of plant communities. Finally, phylogenetically diverse set of native species are less receptive to alien invasive species. Collectively, our findings reveal how biotic interactions and phylogenetic relatedness structure alien invasive - native co-existence.

Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.

Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.

Spiny plants, mammal browsers, and the origin of African savannas.

Savannas first began to spread across Africa during the Miocene. A major hypothesis for explaining this vegetation change is the increase in C4 grasses, promoting fire. We investigated whether mammals could also have contributed to savanna expansion by using spinescence as a marker of mammal herbivory. Looking at the present distribution of 1,852 tree species, we established that spinescence is mainly associated with two functional types of mammals: large browsers and medium-sized mixed feeders. Using a dated phylogeny for the same tree species, we found that spinescence evolved at least 55 times. The diversification of spiny plants occurred long after the evolution of Afrotherian proboscideans and hyracoids. However, it is remarkably congruent with diversification of bovids, the lineage including the antelope that predominantly browse these plants today. Our findings suggest that herbivore-adapted savannas evolved several million years before fire-maintained savannas and probably, in different environmental conditions. Spiny savannas with abundant mammal herbivores occur in drier climates and on nutrient-rich soils, whereas fire-maintained savannas occur in wetter climates on nutrient-poor soils.