In-Depth Analysis of the Selection of PBPK Modeling Tools: Bibliometric and Social Network Analysis of the Open Systems Pharmacology Community.

Since the Open Source Initiative laid the foundation for the open source software environment in 1998, the popularity of free and open source software has been steadily increasing. Model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3), a key component of pharmaceutical research and development, heavily makes use of computational models which can be developed using various software including the Open Systems Pharmacology (OSP) software (PK-Sim/MoBi), a free and open source software tool for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. In this study, we aimed to investigate the impact, application areas, and reach of the OSP software as well as the relationships and collaboration patterns between organizations having published OSP-related articles between 2017 and 2023. Therefore, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of OSP-related publications and a social network analysis of the organizations with which authors of OSP-related publications were affiliated. On several levels, we found evidence for a significant growth in the size of the OSP community as well as its visibility in the MID3 community since OSP's establishment in 2017. Specifically, the annual publication rate of PubMed-indexed PBPK-related articles using the OSP software outpaced that of PBPK-related articles using any software. Our bibliometric analysis and network analysis demonstrated that the expansion of the OSP community was predominantly driven by new authors and organizations without prior connections to the community involving the generation of research clusters de novo and an overall diversification of the network. These findings suggest an ongoing evolution of the OSP community toward a more segmented, diverse, and inclusive network.

Applied physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to assess uridine diphosphate-glucuronosyltransferase-mediated drug-drug interactions for Vericiguat.

Vericiguat (Verquvo; US: Merck, other countries: Bayer) is a novel drug for the treatment of chronic heart failure. Preclinical studies have demonstrated that the primary route of metabolism for vericiguat is glucuronidation, mainly catalyzed by uridine diphosphate-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT)1A9 and to a lesser extent UGT1A1. Whereas a drug-drug interaction (DDI) study of the UGT1A9 inhibitor mefenamic acid showed a 20% exposure increase, the effect of UGT1A1 inhibitors has not been assessed clinically. This modeling study describes a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) approach to complement the clinical DDI liability assessment and support prescription labeling. A PBPK model of vericiguat was developed based on in vitro and clinical data, verified against data from the mefenamic acid DDI study, and applied to assess the UGT1A1 DDI liability by running an in silico DDI study with the UGT1A1 inhibitor atazanavir. A minor effect with an area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) ratio of 1.12 and a peak plasma concentration ratio of 1.04 was predicted, which indicates that there is no clinically relevant DDI interaction anticipated. Additionally, the effect of potential genetic polymorphisms of UGT1A1 and UGT1A9 was evaluated, which showed that an average modest increase of up to 1.7-fold in AUC may be expected in the case of concomitantly reduced UGT1A1 and UGT1A9 activity for subpopulations expressing non-wild-type variants for both isoforms. This study is a first cornerstone to qualify the PK-Sim platform for use of UGT-mediated DDI predictions, including PBPK models of perpetrators, such as mefenamic acid and atazanavir, and sensitive UGT substrates, such as dapagliflozin and raltegravir.

Model-informed approach to support pediatric dosing for the pan-PI3K inhibitor copanlisib in children and adolescents with relapsed/refractory solid tumors.

Copanlisib is an intravenously administered phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) inhibitor which was investigated in pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory solid tumors. A model-informed approach was undertaken to support and confirm an empirically selected starting dose of 28 mg/m2 for pediatric patients ≥1 year old, corresponding to 80% of the adult recommended dose adjusted for body surface area. An adult physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was initially established using copanlisib physicochemical and disposition properties and clinical pharmacokinetics (PK) data and was shown to adequately capture clinical PK across a range of copanlisib doses in adult cancer patients. The adult PBPK model was then extended to the pediatric population through incorporation of age-dependent anatomical and physiological changes and used to simulate copanlisib exposures in pediatric cancer patient age groups. The pediatric PBPK model predicted that the copanlisib 28 mg/m2 dose would achieve similar copanlisib exposures across pediatric ages when compared with historical adult exposures following the approved copanlisib 60 mg dose administered on Days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28-day cycle. Clinical PK were collected from a phase I study in pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory solid tumors (aged ≥4 years). An established adult population PK model was extended to incorporate an allometrically-scaled effect of body surface area and confirmed that the copanlisib maximum tolerated dose of 28 mg/m2 was appropriate to achieve uniform copanlisib exposures across the investigated pediatric age range and consistent exposures to historical data in adult cancer patients. The model-informed approach successfully supported and confirmed the copanlisib pediatric dose recommendation.

Baseline clusters and the response to positive airway pressure treatment in obstructive sleep apnoea patients: longitudinal data from the European Sleep Apnea Database cohort.

Introduction: The European Sleep Apnea Database was used to identify distinguishable obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) phenotypes and to investigate the clinical outcome during positive airway pressure (PAP) treatment. Method: Prospective OSA patient data were recruited from 35 sleep clinics in 21 European countries. Unsupervised cluster analysis (anthropometrics, clinical variables) was performed in a random sample (n=5000). Subsequently, all patients were assigned to the clusters using a conditional inference tree classifier. Responses to PAP treatment change in apnoea severity and Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) were assessed in relation to baseline patient clusters and at short- and long-term follow-up. Results: At baseline, 20 164 patients were assigned (mean age 54.1±12.2 years, 73% male, median apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI) 27.3 (interquartile range (IQR) 14.1-49.3) events·h-1, and ESS 9.8±5.3) to seven distinct clusters based on anthropometrics, comorbidities and symptoms. At PAP follow-up (median 210 [IQR 134-465] days), the observed AHI reduction (n=1075) was similar, whereas the ESS response (n=3938) varied: largest reduction in cluster 3 (young healthy symptomatic males) and 6 (symptomatic males with psychiatric disorders, -5.0 and -5.1 units, respectively (all p<0.01), limited reduction in clusters 2 (obese males with systemic hypertension) and 5 (elderly multimorbid obese males, -4.2 (p<0.05) and -3.7 (p<0.001), respectively). Residual sleepiness in cluster 5 was particularly evident at long-term follow-up (p<0.05). Conclusion: OSA patients can be classified into clusters based on clinically identifiable features. Importantly, these clusters may be useful for prediction of both short- and long-term responses to PAP intervention.

Data-driven identification of heart failure disease states and progression pathways using electronic health records.

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity, healthcare costs, and mortality. Guideline based segmentation of HF into distinct subtypes is coarse and unlikely to reflect the heterogeneity of etiologies and disease trajectories of patients. While analyses of electronic health records show promise in expanding our understanding of complex syndromes like HF in an evidence-driven way, limitations in data quality have presented challenges for large-scale EHR-based insight generation and decision-making. We present a hypothesis-free approach to generating real-world characteristics and progression patterns of HF. Patient disease state snapshots are extracted from the complaints mentioned in unstructured clinical notes. Typical disease states are generated by clustering and characterized in terms of their distinguishing features, temporal relationships, and risk of important clinical events. Our analysis generates a comprehensive "disease phenome" of real-world patients computed from large, noisy, secondary-use EHR datasets created in a routine clinical setting.

Early prediction of decompensation (EPOD) score: Non-invasive determination of cirrhosis decompensation risk.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Decompensation is a hallmark of disease progression in cirrhotic patients. Early detection of a phase transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensation would enable targeted therapeutic interventions potentially extending life expectancy. This study aims to (a) identify the predictors of decompensation in a large, multicentric cohort of patients with compensated cirrhosis, (b) to build a reliable prognostic score for decompensation and (c) to evaluate the score in independent cohorts. METHODS: Decompensation was identified in electronic health records data from 6049 cirrhosis patients in the IBM Explorys database training cohort by diagnostic codes for variceal bleeding, encephalopathy, ascites, hepato-renal syndrome and/or jaundice. We identified predictors of clinical decompensation and developed a prognostic score using Cox regression analysis. The score was evaluated using the IBM Explorys database validation cohort (N = 17662), the Penn Medicine BioBank (N = 1326) and the UK Biobank (N = 317). RESULTS: The new Early Prediction of Decompensation (EPOD) score uses platelet count, albumin, and bilirubin concentration. It predicts decompensation during a 3-year follow-up in three validation cohorts with AUROCs of 0.69, 0.69 and 0.77, respectively, and outperforms the well-known MELD and Child-Pugh score in predicting decompensation. Furthermore, the EPOD score predicted the 3-year probability of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: The EPOD score provides a prediction tool for the risk of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis that outperforms well-known cirrhosis scores. Since EPOD is based on three blood parameters, only, it provides maximal clinical feasibility at minimal costs.

Algorithmic surveillance of ICU patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ASIC): protocol for a multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised quality improvement strategy.

INTRODUCTION: The acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a highly relevant entity in critical care with mortality rates of 40%. Despite extensive scientific efforts, outcome-relevant therapeutic measures are still insufficiently practised at the bedside. Thus, there is a clear need to adhere to early diagnosis and sufficient therapy in ARDS, assuring lower mortality and multiple organ failure. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this quality improvement strategy (QIS), a decision support system as a mobile application (ASIC app), which uses available clinical real-time data, is implemented to support physicians in timely diagnosis and improvement of adherence to established guidelines in the treatment of ARDS. ASIC is conducted on 31 intensive care units (ICUs) at 8 German university hospitals. It is designed as a multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised QIS. ICUs are combined into 12 clusters which are randomised in 12 steps. After preparation (18 months) and a control phase of 8 months for all clusters, the first cluster enters a roll-in phase (3 months) that is followed by the actual QIS phase. The remaining clusters follow in month wise steps. The coprimary key performance indicators (KPIs) consist of the ARDS diagnostic rate and guideline adherence regarding lung-protective ventilation. Secondary KPIs include the prevalence of organ dysfunction within 28 days after diagnosis or ICU discharge, the treatment duration on ICU and the hospital mortality. Furthermore, the user acceptance and usability of new technologies in medicine are examined. To show improvements in healthcare of patients with ARDS, differences in primary and secondary KPIs between control phase and QIS will be tested. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the independent Ethics Committee (EC) at the RWTH Aachen Faculty of Medicine (local EC reference number: EK 102/19) and the respective data protection officer in March 2019. The results of the ASIC QIS will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DRKS00014330.

CKD subpopulations defined by risk-factors: A longitudinal analysis of electronic health records.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive disease that evades early detection and is associated with various comorbidities. Although clinical comprehension and control of these comorbidities is crucial for CKD management, complex pathophysiological interactions and feedback loops make this a formidable task. We have developed a hybrid semimechanistic modeling methodology to investigate CKD progression. The model is represented as a system of ordinary differential equations with embedded neural networks and takes into account complex disease progression pathways, feedback loops, and effects of 53 medications to generate time trajectories of eight clinical biomarkers that capture CKD progression due to various risk factors. The model was applied to real world data of US patients with CKD to map the available longitudinal information onto a set of time-invariant patient-specific parameters with a clear biological interpretation. These parameters describing individual patients were used to segment the cohort using a clustering approach. Model-based simulations were conducted to investigate cluster-specific treatment strategies. The model was able to reliably reproduce the variability in biomarkers across the cohort. The clustering procedure segmented the cohort into five subpopulations - four with enhanced sensitivity to a specific risk factor (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, or impaired kidney) and one that is largely insensitive to any of the risk factors. Simulation studies were used to identify patient-specific strategies to restrain or prevent CKD progression through management of specific risk factors. The semimechanistic model enables identification of disease progression phenotypes using longitudinal data that aid in prioritizing treatment strategies at individual patient level.

Predictive Performance of Physiology-Based Pharmacokinetic Dose Estimates for Pediatric Trials: Evaluation With 10 Bayer Small-Molecule Compounds in Children.

Development and guidance of dosing schemes in children have been supported by physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling for many years. PBPK models are built on a generic basis, where compound- and system-specific parameters are separated and can be exchanged, allowing the translation of these models from adults to children by accounting for physiological differences. Owing to these features, PBPK modeling is a valuable approach to support clinical decision making for dosing in children. In this analysis, we evaluate pediatric PBPK models for 10 small-molecule compounds that were applied to support clinical decision processes at Bayer for their predictive power in different age groups. Ratios of PBPK-predicted to observed PK parameters for the evaluated drugs in different pediatric age groups were estimated. Predictive performance was analyzed on the basis of a 2-fold error range and the bioequivalence range (ie, 0.8 ≤ predicted/observed ≤ 1.25). For all 10 compounds, all predicted-to-observed PK ratios were within a 2-fold error range (n = 27), with two-thirds of the ratios within the bioequivalence range (n = 18). The findings demonstrate that the pharmacokinetics of these compounds was successfully and adequately predicted in different pediatric age groups. This illustrates the applicability of PBPK for guiding dosing schemes in the pediatric population.

Data-driven personalization of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for caffeine: A systematic assessment.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been proposed as a tool for more accurate individual pharmacokinetic (PK) predictions and model-informed precision dosing, but their application in clinical practice is still rare. This study systematically assesses the benefit of using individual patient information to improve PK predictions. A PBPK model of caffeine was stepwise personalized by using individual data on (1) demography, (2) physiology, and (3) cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A2 phenotype of 48 healthy volunteers participating in a single-dose clinical study. Model performance was benchmarked against a caffeine base model simulated with parameters of an average individual. In the first step, virtual twins were generated based on the study subjects' demography (height, weight, age, sex), which implicated the rescaling of average organ volumes and blood flows. The accuracy of PK simulations improved compared with the base model. The percentage of predictions within 0.8-fold to 1.25-fold of the observed values increased from 45.8% (base model) to 57.8% (Step 1). However, setting physiological parameters (liver blood flow determined by magnetic resonance imaging, glomerular filtration rate, hematocrit) to measured values in the second step did not further improve the simulation result (59.1% in the 1.25-fold range). In the third step, virtual twins matching individual demography, physiology, and CYP1A2 activity considerably improved the simulation results. The percentage of data within the 1.25-fold range was 66.15%. This case study shows that individual PK profiles can be predicted more accurately by considering individual attributes and that personalized PBPK models could be a valuable tool for model-informed precision dosing approaches in the future.

A generic framework for the physiologically-based pharmacokinetic platform qualification of PK-Sim and its application to predicting cytochrome P450 3A4-mediated drug-drug interactions.

The success of applications of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in drug development and drug labeling has triggered regulatory agencies to demand rigorous demonstration of the predictive capability of the specific PBPK platform for a particular intended application purpose. The effort needed to comply with such qualification requirements exceeds the costs for any individual PBPK application. Because changes or updates of a PBPK platform would require (re-)qualification, a reliable and efficient generic qualification framework is needed. We describe the development and implementation of an agile and sustainable technical framework for automatic PBPK platform (re-)qualification of PK-Sim® embedded in the open source and open science GitHub landscape of Open Systems Pharmacology. The qualification approach enables the efficient assessment of all aspects relevant to the qualification of a particular purpose and provides transparency and traceability for all stakeholders. As a showcase example for the power and versatility of the qualification framework, we present the qualification of PK-Sim® for the intended purpose of predicting cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4)-mediated drug-drug interactions (DDIs). Several perpetrator PBPK models featuring various degrees of CYP3A4 modulation and different types of mechanisms (competitive inhibition, mechanism-based inactivation, and induction) were coupled with a set of PBPK models of sensitive CYP3A4 victim drugs. Simulations were compared to a comprehensive data set of 135 observations from published clinical DDI studies. The platform's overall predictive performance showed reasonable accuracy and precision (geometric mean fold error of 1.4 for both area under the plasma concentration-time curve ratios and peak plasma concentration ratios with/without perpetrator) and suggests that PK-Sim® can be applied to quantitatively assess CYP3A4-mediated DDI in clinically untested scenarios.

NT-proBNP Qualifies as a Surrogate for Clinical End Points in Heart Failure.

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a well-established biomarker in heart failure (HF) but controversially discussed as a potential surrogate marker in HF trials. We analyzed the NT-proBNP/mortality relationship in real-world data (RWD) of 108,330 HF patients from the IBM Watson Health Explorys database and compared it with the NT-proBNP / clinical event end-point relationship in 20 clinical HF studies. With a hierarchical statistical model, we quantified the functional relationship and interstudy variability. To independently qualify the model, we predicted outcome hazard ratios in five phase III HF studies solely based on NT-proBNP measured early in the respective study. In RWD and clinical studies, the relationship between NT-proBNP and clinical outcome is well described by an Emax model. The NT-proBNP independent baseline risk (R0 , RWD/studies median (interstudy interquartile range): 5.5%/3.0% (1.7-4.9%)) is very low compared with the potential NT-proBNP-associated maximum risk (Rmax : 55.2%/79.4% (61.5-89.0%)). The NT-proBNP concentration associated with the half-maximal risk is comparable in RWD and across clinical studies (EC50 : 3,880/2,414 pg/mL (1,460-4,355 pg/mL)). Model-based predictions of phase III outcomes, relying on short-term NT-proBNP data only, match final trial results with comparable confidence intervals. Our analysis qualifies NT-proBNP as a surrogate for clinical outcome in HF trials. NT-proBNP levels after short treatment durations of less than 10 weeks quantitatively predict hazard ratios with confidence levels comparable to final trial readout. Early NT-proBNP measurement can therefore enable shorter and smaller but still reliable HF trials.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Approaches for Immuno-Oncology: Adding Virtual Patients to the Development Paradigm.

Drug development in oncology commonly exploits the tools of molecular biology to gain therapeutic benefit through reprograming of cellular responses. In immuno-oncology (IO) the aim is to direct the patient's own immune system to fight cancer. After remarkable successes of antibodies targeting PD1/PD-L1 and CTLA4 receptors in targeted patient populations, the focus of further development has shifted toward combination therapies. However, the current drug-development approach of exploiting a vast number of possible combination targets and dosing regimens has proven to be challenging and is arguably inefficient. In particular, the unprecedented number of clinical trials testing different combinations may no longer be sustainable by the population of available patients. Further development in IO requires a step change in selection and validation of candidate therapies to decrease development attrition rate and limit the number of clinical trials. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) proposes to tackle this challenge through mechanistic modeling and simulation. Compounds' pharmacokinetics, target binding, and mechanisms of action as well as existing knowledge on the underlying tumor and immune system biology are described by quantitative, dynamic models aiming to predict clinical results for novel combinations. Here, we review the current QSP approaches, the legacy of mathematical models available to quantitative clinical pharmacologists describing interaction between tumor and immune system, and the recent development of IO QSP platform models. We argue that QSP and virtual patients can be integrated as a new tool in existing IO drug development approaches to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the search for novel combination therapies.

Multiscale classification of heart failure phenotypes by unsupervised clustering of unstructured electronic medical record data.

As a leading cause of death and morbidity, heart failure (HF) is responsible for a large portion of healthcare and disability costs worldwide. Current approaches to define specific HF subpopulations may fail to account for the diversity of etiologies, comorbidities, and factors driving disease progression, and therefore have limited value for clinical decision making and development of novel therapies. Here we present a novel and data-driven approach to understand and characterize the real-world manifestation of HF by clustering disease and symptom-related clinical concepts (complaints) captured from unstructured electronic health record clinical notes. We used natural language processing to construct vectorized representations of patient complaints followed by clustering to group HF patients by similarity of complaint vectors. We then identified complaints that were significantly enriched within each cluster using statistical testing. Breaking the HF population into groups of similar patients revealed a clinically interpretable hierarchy of subgroups characterized by similar HF manifestation. Importantly, our methodology revealed well-known etiologies, risk factors, and comorbid conditions of HF (including ischemic heart disease, aortic valve disease, atrial fibrillation, congenital heart disease, various cardiomyopathies, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease) and yielded additional insights into the details of each HF subgroup's clinical manifestation of HF. Our approach is entirely hypothesis free and can therefore be readily applied for discovery of novel insights in alternative diseases or patient populations.

Predictive Pediatric Modeling and Simulation Using Ontogeny Information.

Food and Drug Administration submissions of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation of small-molecule drugs document the relevance of pediatric drug development and, in particular, information on dosing strategies in children. The most relevant prerequisite for reliable PBPK-based translation of adult pharmacokinetics of a small molecule to children is knowledge of the drug-specific absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) processes in adults together with existing information about ontogeny of ADME processes relevant for the drug. All mechanisms driving a drug's clearance are of specific importance. For other drug modalities, our knowledge of ADME processes and ontogeny is still limited. More research is required, for example, to understand why some therapeutic proteins show complex differences in pharmacokinetics between adults and children, whereas other proteins seem to follow simple allometric scaling rules. Ontogeny information originates from various sources, such as (semi)quantitative mRNA expression, in vitro activity data, and deconvolution of in vivo pharmacokinetic data. The workflow for pediatric predictions is well described in several articles documenting successful translation from adults to children. The technical hurdles for PBPK modeling are low. State-of-the-art PBPK modeling software tools provide integrated pediatric translation workflows. For example, PK-Sim and MoBi are freely available as fully transparent open-source software via Open Systems Pharmacology (OSP). With the latest 2019 software release, version 8.0, OSP even provides a fully integrated technical framework for the qualification (and requalification) of any specific intended PBPK use in line with Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency PBPK guidance. Qualification packages for pediatric translation are available on the OSP platform.

Pharmacokinetics of rivaroxaban in children using physiologically based and population pharmacokinetic modelling: an EINSTEIN-Jr phase I study.

BACKGROUND: The EINSTEIN-Jr program will evaluate rivaroxaban for the treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in children, targeting exposures similar to the 20 mg once-daily dose for adults. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for pediatric rivaroxaban dosing has been constructed. METHODS: We quantitatively assessed the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a single rivaroxaban dose in children using population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modelling and assessed the applicability of the PBPK model. Plasma concentration-time data from the EINSTEIN-Jr phase I study were analysed by non-compartmental and PopPK analyses and compared with the predictions of the PBPK model. Two rivaroxaban dose levels, equivalent to adult doses of rivaroxaban 10 mg and 20 mg, and two different formulations (tablet and oral suspension) were tested in children aged 0.5-18 years who had completed treatment for VTE. RESULTS: PK data from 59 children were obtained. The observed plasma concentration-time profiles in all subjects were mostly within the 90% prediction interval, irrespective of dose or formulation. The PopPK estimates and non-compartmental analysis-derived PK parameters (in children aged ≥6 years) were in good agreement with the PBPK model predictions. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirmed the applicability of the rivaroxaban pediatric PBPK model in the pediatric population aged 0.5-18 years, which in combination with the PopPK model, will be further used to guide dose selection for the treatment of VTE with rivaroxaban in EINSTEIN-Jr phase II and III studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01145859; registration date: 17 June 2010.

Modeling and Simulation of In Vivo Drug Effects.

The concept of a pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) assessment of drug development candidates is well established in pharmaceutical research and development, and PK/PD modeling is common practice in all pharmaceutical companies. A recent analysis (Morgan et al., Drug Discov Today 17(9-10):419-424, 2012) revealed however that insufficient certainty in the integrity of the causal chain of fundamental pharmacological steps from drug dosing through systemic exposure, target tissue exposure, and engagement of molecular target to pharmacological response is still the major driver of failure in phase II of clinical drug development. Despite the rise of molecular biomarkers, ethical, scientific, and practical constraints very often still prevent a direct assessment of each necessary step ultimately leading to an intended drug effect or an unintended adverse reaction. Yet, incomplete investigation of the causality of drug responses is a major risk for translational assessments and the prediction of drug responses in different species or other populations. Mechanism-based modeling and simulation (M&S) offers a means to investigate complex physiological and pharmacological processes and to complement experimental data for non-accessible steps in the pharmacological causal chain. With the help of two examples, it is illustrated, what level of physiological detail, state-of-the-art models can represent, how predictive these models are and how mechanism-based approaches can be combined with empirical correlation-based concepts.

Contribution of rivaroxaban to the international normalized ratio when switching to warfarin for anticoagulation as determined by simulation studies.

AIM: This study evaluated the influence of rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily on international normalized ratio (INR) during the co-administration period when switching from rivaroxaban to warfarin. METHODS: We developed a calibrated coagulation model that was qualified with phase I clinical data. Prothrombin time and INR values were simulated by use of phospholipid concentrations that matched Neoplastin Plus® and Innovin® reagents. To simulate the combined effects of rivaroxaban and warfarin on INR during switching, warfarin initiation was simulated by adjusting the magnitude of the warfarin effect to reach the desired target INRs over the course of 21 days. The warfarin effect values (obtained every 6 h) and the desired rivaroxaban plasma concentrations were used. Nomograms were generated from rivaroxaban induced increases in INR. RESULTS: The simulation had good prediction quality. Rivaroxaban induced increases in the total INR from the warfarin attributed INR were seen, which increased with rivaroxaban plasma concentration. When the warfarin only INR was 2.0-3.0, the INR contribution of rivaroxaban with Neoplastin Plus® was 0.5-1.2, decreasing to 0.3-0.6 with Innovin® at median trough rivaroxaban plasma concentrations (38 µg l(-1) ). CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate that measuring warfarin induced changes in INR are best performed at trough rivaroxaban concentrations (24 h after rivaroxaban dosing) during the co-administration period when switching from rivaroxaban to warfarin. Furthermore, Innovin® is preferable to Neoplastin Plus® because of its substantially lower sensitivity to rivaroxaban, thereby reducing the influence of rivaroxaban on the measured INR.