Bayesian pairwise meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards: A simulation study of flexible parametric, piecewise exponential and fractional polynomial models.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes reports a single pooled hazard ratio assuming proportional hazards (PH). For health technology assessment evaluations, hazard ratios are frequently extrapolated across a lifetime horizon. However, when treatment effects vary over time, an assumption of PH is not always valid. The Royston-Parmar (RP), piecewise exponential (PE), and fractional polynomial (FP) models can accommodate non-PH and provide plausible extrapolations of survival curves beyond observed data. METHODS: Simulation study to assess and compare the performance of RP, PE, and FP models in a Bayesian framework estimating restricted mean survival time difference (RMSTD) at 50 years from a pairwise meta-analysis with evidence of non-PH. Individual patient data were generated from a mixture Weibull distribution. Twelve scenarios were considered varying the amount of follow-up data, number of trials in a meta-analysis, non-PH interaction coefficient, and prior distributions. Performance was assessed through bias and mean squared error. Models were applied to a metastatic breast cancer example. RESULTS: FP models performed best when the non-PH interaction coefficient was 0.2. RP models performed best in scenarios with complete follow-up data. PE models performed well on average across all scenarios. In the metastatic breast cancer example, RMSTD at 50-years ranged from -14.6 to 8.48 months. CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and estimation of RMSTD in the presence of non-PH can be challenging and computationally intensive. Different approaches make different assumptions regarding extrapolation and sensitivity analyses varying key assumptions are essential to check the robustness of conclusions to different assumptions for the underlying survival function.

Evaluating the effect of a digital health intervention to enhance physical activity in people with chronic kidney disease (Kidney BEAM): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Remote digital health interventions to enhance physical activity provide a potential solution to improve the sedentary behaviour, physical inactivity, and poor health-related quality of life that are typical of chronic conditions, particularly for people with chronic kidney disease. However, there is a need for high-quality evidence to support implementation in clinical practice. The Kidney BEAM trial evaluated the clinical effect of a 12-week physical activity digital health intervention on health-related quality of life. METHODS: In a single-blind, randomised controlled trial conducted at 11 centres in the UK, adult participants (aged ≥18 years) with chronic kidney disease were recruited and randomly assigned (1:1) to the Kidney BEAM physical activity digital health intervention or a waiting list control group. Randomisation was performed with a web-based system, in randomly permuted blocks of six. Outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was the difference in the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 Mental Component Summary (KDQoL-SF1.3 MCS) between baseline and 12 weeks. The trial was powered to detect a clinically meaningful difference of 3 arbitrary units (AU) in KDQoL-SF1.3 MCS. Outcomes were analysed by an intention-to-treat approach using an analysis of covariance model, with baseline measures and age as covariates. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04872933. FINDINGS: Between May 6, 2021, and Oct 30, 2022, 1102 individuals were assessed for eligibility, of whom 340 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to the Kidney BEAM intervention group (n=173) or the waiting list control group (n=167). 268 participants completed the trial (112 in the Kidney BEAM group and 156 in the waiting list control group). All 340 randomly assigned participants were included in the intention-to treat population. At 12 weeks, there was a significant improvement in KDQoL-SF.13 MCS score in the Kidney BEAM group (from mean 44·6 AU [SD 10·8] at baseline to 47·0 AU [10·6] at 12 weeks) compared with the waiting list control group (from 46·1 AU [10·5] to 45·0 AU [10·1]; between-group difference of 3·1 AU [95% CI 1·8-4·4]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The Kidney BEAM physical activity platform is an efficacious digital health intervention to improve mental health-related quality of life in patients with chronic kidney disease. These findings could facilitate the incorporation of remote digital health interventions into clinical practice and offer a potential intervention worthy of investigation in other chronic conditions. FUNDING: Kidney Research UK.

Data visualisation approaches for component network meta-analysis: visualising the data structure.

BACKGROUND: Health and social care interventions are often complex and can be decomposed into multiple components. Multicomponent interventions are often evaluated in randomised controlled trials. Across trials, interventions often have components in common which are given alongside other components which differ across trials. Multicomponent interventions can be synthesised using component NMA (CNMA). CNMA is limited by the structure of the available evidence, but it is not always straightforward to visualise such complex evidence networks. The aim of this paper is to develop tools to visualise the structure of complex evidence networks to support CNMA. METHODS: We performed a citation review of two key CNMA methods papers to identify existing published CNMA analyses and reviewed how they graphically represent intervention complexity and comparisons across trials. Building on identified shortcomings of existing visualisation approaches, we propose three approaches to standardise visualising the data structure and/or availability of data: CNMA-UpSet plot, CNMA heat map, CNMA-circle plot. We use a motivating example to illustrate these plots. RESULTS: We identified 34 articles reporting CNMAs. A network diagram was the most common plot type used to visualise the data structure for CNMA (26/34 papers), but was unable to express the complex data structures and large number of components and potential combinations of components associated with CNMA. Therefore, we focused visualisation development around representing the data structure of a CNMA more completely. The CNMA-UpSet plot presents arm-level data and is suitable for networks with large numbers of components or combinations of components. Heat maps can be utilised to inform decisions about which pairwise interactions to consider for inclusion in a CNMA model. The CNMA-circle plot visualises the combinations of components which differ between trial arms and offers flexibility in presenting additional information such as the number of patients experiencing the outcome of interest in each arm. CONCLUSIONS: As CNMA becomes more widely used for the evaluation of multicomponent interventions, the novel CNMA-specific visualisations presented in this paper, which improve on the limitations of existing visualisations, will be important to aid understanding of the complex data structure and facilitate interpretation of the CNMA results.

The NightLife study - the clinical and cost-effectiveness of thrice-weekly, extended, in-centre nocturnal haemodialysis versus daytime haemodialysis using a mixed methods approach: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In-centre nocturnal haemodialysis (INHD) offers extended-hours haemodialysis, 6 to 8 h thrice-weekly overnight, with the support of dialysis specialist nurses. There is increasing observational data demonstrating potential benefits of INHD on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There is a lack of randomised controlled trial (RCT) data to confirm these benefits and assess safety. METHODS: The NightLife study is a pragmatic, two-arm, multicentre RCT comparing the impact of 6 months INHD to conventional haemodialysis (thrice-weekly daytime in-centre haemodialysis, 3.5-5 h per session). The primary outcome is the total score from the Kidney Disease Quality of Life tool at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include sleep and cognitive function, measures of safety, adherence to dialysis and impact on clinical parameters. There is an embedded Process Evaluation to assess implementation, health economic modelling and a QuinteT Recruitment Intervention to understand factors that influence recruitment and retention. Adults (≥ 18 years old) who have been established on haemodialysis for > 3 months are eligible to participate. DISCUSSION: There are 68,000 adults in the UK that need kidney replacement therapy (KRT), with in-centre haemodialysis the treatment modality for over a third of cases. HRQoL is an independent predictor of hospitalisation and mortality in individuals on maintenance dialysis. Haemodialysis is associated with poor HRQoL in comparison to the general population. INHD has the potential to improve HRQoL. Vigorous RCT evidence of effectiveness is lacking. The NightLife study is an essential step in the understanding of dialysis therapies and will guide patient-centred decisions regarding KRT in the future. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: ISRCTN87042063. Registered: 14/07/2020.

Exercise training and resting blood pressure: a large-scale pairwise and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a large-scale pairwise and network meta-analysis on the effects of all relevant exercise training modes on resting blood pressure to establish optimal antihypertensive exercise prescription practices. DESIGN: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed (Medline), the Cochrane library and Web of Science were systematically searched. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials published between 1990 and February 2023. All relevant work reporting reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) following an exercise intervention of ≥2 weeks, with an eligible non-intervention control group, were included. RESULTS: 270 randomised controlled trials were ultimately included in the final analysis, with a pooled sample size of 15 827 participants. Pairwise analyses demonstrated significant reductions in resting SBP and DBP following aerobic exercise training (-4.49/-2.53 mm Hg, p<0.001), dynamic resistance training (-4.55/-3.04 mm Hg, p<0.001), combined training (-6.04/-2.54 mm Hg, p<0.001), high-intensity interval training (-4.08/-2.50 mm Hg, p<0.001) and isometric exercise training (-8.24/-4.00 mm Hg, p<0.001). As shown in the network meta-analysis, the rank order of effectiveness based on the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) values for SBP were isometric exercise training (SUCRA: 98.3%), combined training (75.7%), dynamic resistance training (46.1%), aerobic exercise training (40.5%) and high-intensity interval training (39.4%). Secondary network meta-analyses revealed isometric wall squat and running as the most effective submodes for reducing SBP (90.4%) and DBP (91.3%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Various exercise training modes improve resting blood pressure, particularly isometric exercise. The results of this analysis should inform future exercise guideline recommendations for the prevention and treatment of arterial hypertension.

MetaBayesDTA: codeless Bayesian meta-analysis of test accuracy, with or without a gold standard.

BACKGROUND: The statistical models developed for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies require specialised knowledge to implement. This is especially true since recent guidelines, such as those in Version 2 of the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews of Diagnostic Test Accuracy, advocate more sophisticated methods than previously. This paper describes a web-based application - MetaBayesDTA - that makes many advanced analysis methods in this area more accessible. RESULTS: We created the app using R, the Shiny package and Stan. It allows for a broad array of analyses based on the bivariate model including extensions for subgroup analysis, meta-regression and comparative test accuracy evaluation. It also conducts analyses not assuming a perfect reference standard, including allowing for the use of different reference tests. CONCLUSIONS: Due to its user-friendliness and broad array of features, MetaBayesDTA should appeal to researchers with varying levels of expertise. We anticipate that the application will encourage higher levels of uptake of more advanced methods, which ultimately should improve the quality of test accuracy reviews.

Non-opioid analgesics for the prevention of chronic postsurgical pain: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic postsurgical pain is common after surgery. Identification of non-opioid analgesics with potential for preventing chronic postsurgical pain is important, although trials are often underpowered. Network meta-analysis offers an opportunity to improve power and to identify the most promising therapy for clinical use and future studies. METHODS: We conducted a PRISMA-NMA-compliant systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of non-opioid analgesics for chronic postsurgical pain. Outcomes included incidence and severity of chronic postsurgical pain, serious adverse events, and chronic opioid use. RESULTS: We included 132 randomised controlled trials with 23 902 participants. In order of efficacy, i.v. lidocaine (odds ratio [OR] 0.32; 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.17-0.58), ketamine (OR 0.64; 95% CrI 0.44-0.92), gabapentinoids (OR 0.67; 95% CrI 0.47-0.92), and possibly dexmedetomidine (OR 0.36; 95% CrI 0.12-1.00) reduced the incidence of chronic postsurgical pain at ≤6 months. There was little available evidence for chronic postsurgical pain at >6 months, combinations agents, chronic opioid use, and serious adverse events. Variable baseline risk was identified as a potential violation to the network meta-analysis transitivity assumption, so results are reported from a fixed value of this, with analgesics more effective at higher baseline risk. The confidence in these findings was low because of problems with risk of bias and imprecision. CONCLUSIONS: Lidocaine (most effective), ketamine, and gabapentinoids could be effective in reducing chronic postsurgical pain ≤6 months although confidence is low. Moreover, variable baseline risk might violate transitivity in network meta-analysis of analgesics; this recommends use of our methods in future network meta-analyses. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW PROTOCOL: PROSPERO CRD42021269642.

A multifaceted graphical display, including treatment ranking, was developed to aid interpretation of network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Network meta-analysis (NMA) is becoming a popular statistical tool for analyzing a network of evidence comparing more than two interventions. A particular advantage of NMA over pairwise meta-analysis is its ability to simultaneously compare multiple interventions including comparisons not previously trialed together, permitting intervention hierarchies to be created. Our aim was to develop a novel graphical display to aid interpretation of NMA to clinicians and decision-makers that incorporates ranking of interventions. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Current literature was searched, scrutinized, and provided direction for developing the novel graphical display. Ranking results were often found to be misinterpreted when presented alone and, to aid interpretation and effective communication to inform optimal decision-making, need to be displayed alongside other important aspects of the analysis including the evidence networks and relative intervention effect estimates. RESULTS: Two new ranking visualizations were developed-the 'Litmus Rank-O-Gram' and the 'Radial SUCRA' plot-and embedded within a novel multipanel graphical display programmed within the MetaInsight application, with user feedback gained. CONCLUSION: This display was designed to improve the reporting, and facilitate a holistic understanding, of NMA results. We believe uptake of the display would lead to better understanding of complex results and improve future decision-making.

Measuring quality of life in trials including patients on haemodialysis: methodological issues surrounding the use of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: Haemodialysis (HD) treatment causes a significant decrease in quality of life (QoL). When enrolled in a clinical trial, some patients are lost prior to follow-up because they die or they receive a kidney transplant. It is unclear how these patients are dealt with in the analysis of QoL data. There are questions surrounding the consistency of how QoL measures are used, reported and analysed. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases for trials measuring QoL in HD patients using any variation of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life (KDQoL) Questionnaire was conducted. The review was conducted in Covidence version 2. Quantitative analysis was conducted in Stata version 16. RESULTS: We included 61 trials in the review, of which 82% reported dropouts. The methods to account for missing data due to dropouts include imputation (7%) and complete case analysis (72%). Few trials (7%) conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of missing data on the study results. Single imputation techniques were used, but are only valid under strong assumptions regarding the type and pattern of missingness. There was inconsistency in the reporting of the KDQoL, with many articles (70%) amending the validated questionnaires or reporting only statistically significant results. CONCLUSIONS: Missing data are not dealt with according to the missing data mechanism, which may lead to biased results. Inconsistency in the use of patient-reported outcome measures raises questions about the validity of these trials. Methodological issues in nephrology trials could be a contributing factor to why there are limited effective interventions to improve QoL in this patient group. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42020223869.

Timing of invasive strategy in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: The optimal timing of an invasive strategy (IS) in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is controversial. Recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and long-term follow-up data have yet to be included in a contemporary meta-analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: A systematic review of RCTs that compared an early IS vs. delayed IS for NSTE-ACS was conducted by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. A meta-analysis was performed by pooling relative risks (RRs) using a random-effects model. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent ischaemia, admission for heart failure (HF), repeat re-vascularization, major bleeding, stroke, and length of hospital stay. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021246131). Seventeen RCTs with outcome data from 10 209 patients were included. No significant differences in risk for all-cause mortality [RR: 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-1.04], MI (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.63-1.16), admission for HF (RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.43-1.03), repeat re-vascularization (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.88-1.23), major bleeding (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.68-1.09), or stroke (RR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.59-1.54) were observed. Recurrent ischaemia (RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40-0.81) and length of stay (median difference: -22 h, 95% CI: -36.7 to -7.5 h) were reduced with an early IS. CONCLUSION: In all-comers with NSTE-ACS, an early IS does not reduce all-cause mortality, MI, admission for HF, repeat re-vascularization, or increase major bleeding or stroke when compared with a delayed IS. Risk of recurrent ischaemia and length of stay are significantly reduced with an early IS.

Meta-analysis of dichotomous and ordinal tests with an imperfect gold standard.

Standard methods for the meta-analysis of medical tests, without assuming a gold standard, are limited to dichotomous data. Multivariate probit models are used to analyse correlated dichotomous data, and can be extended to model ordinal data. Within the context of an imperfect gold standard, they have previously been used for the analysis of dichotomous and ordinal test data from a single study, and for the meta-analysis of dichotomous tests. However, they have not previously been used for the meta-analysis of ordinal tests. In this article, we developed a Bayesian multivariate probit latent class model for the simultaneous meta-analysis of ordinal and dichotomous tests without assuming a gold standard, which also allows one to obtain summary estimates of joint test accuracy. We fitted the models using the software Stan, which uses a state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, and we applied the models to a dataset in which studies evaluated the accuracy of tests, and test combinations, for deep vein thrombosis. We demonstrate the issues with dichotomising ordinal test accuracy data in the presence of an imperfect gold standard, before applying and comparing several variations of our proposed model which do not require the data to be dichotomised. The models proposed will allow researchers to more appropriately meta-analyse ordinal and dichotomous tests without a gold standard, potentially leading to less biased estimates of test accuracy. This may lead to a better understanding of which tests, and test combinations, should be used for any given medical condition.

Challenges of modelling approaches for network meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards to aid decision making: Application to a melanoma network.

BACKGROUND: Synthesis of clinical effectiveness from multiple trials is a well-established component of decision-making. Time-to-event outcomes are often synthesised using the Cox proportional hazards model assuming a constant hazard ratio over time. However, with an increasing proportion of trials reporting treatment effects where hazard ratios vary over time and with differing lengths of follow-up across trials, alternative synthesis methods are needed. OBJECTIVES: To compare and contrast five modelling approaches for synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and provide guidance on key considerations for choosing between the modelling approaches. METHODS: The Cox proportional hazards model and five other methods of estimating treatment effects from time-to-event outcomes, which relax the proportional hazards assumption, were applied to a network of melanoma trials reporting overall survival: restricted mean survival time, generalised gamma, piecewise exponential, fractional polynomial and Royston-Parmar models. RESULTS: All models fitted the melanoma network acceptably well. However, there were important differences in extrapolations of the survival curve and interpretability of the modelling constraints demonstrating the potential for different conclusions from different modelling approaches. CONCLUSION: The restricted mean survival time, generalised gamma, piecewise exponential, fractional polynomial and Royston-Parmar models can accommodate non-proportional hazards and differing lengths of trial follow-up within a network meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes. We recommend that model choice is informed using available and relevant prior knowledge, model transparency, graphically comparing survival curves alongside observed data to aid consideration of the reliability of the survival estimates, and consideration of how the treatment effect estimates can be incorporated within a decision model.

Feasibility study for interactive reporting of network meta-analysis: experiences from the development of the MetaInsight COVID-19 app for stakeholder exploration, re-analysis and sensitivity analysis from living systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis (NMA) has been increasingly adopted worldwide by Cochrane reviews, guideline developers and decision-making bodies to identify optimal treatment choices. However, NMA results are often produced statically, not allowing stakeholders to 'dig deeper' and interrogate with their own judgement. Additionally, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, unnecessary or duplicated reviews have been proposed which analyse from the same pool of evidence. We developed the 'MetaInsight COVID-19' app as a prototype for an interactive platform to eliminate such duplicated efforts, by empowering users to freely analyse the data and improve scientific transparency. METHODS: MetaInsight COVID-19 ( https://crsu.shinyapps.io/metainsightcovid/ ) was developed to conduct NMA with the evolving evidence on treatments for COVID-19. It was updated weekly between 19th May - 19th Oct 2020, incorporating new evidence identified from a living systematic review. RESULTS: The app includes embedded functions to facilitate study selection based on study characteristics, and displays the synthesised results in real time. It allows both frequentist and Bayesian NMA to be conducted as well as consistency and heterogeneity assessments. A demonstration of the app is provided and experiences of building such a platform are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: MetaInsight COVID-19 allows users to take control of the evidence synthesis using the analytic approach they deem appropriate to ascertain how robust findings are to alternative analysis strategies and study inclusion criteria. It is hoped that this app will help avoid many of the duplicated efforts when reviewing and synthesising the COVID-19 evidence, and, in addition, establish the desirability of an open platform format such as this for interactive data interrogation, visualisation, and reporting for any traditional or 'living' NMA.

A pilot randomised controlled trial of a structured, home-based exercise programme on cardiovascular structure and function in kidney transplant recipients: the ECSERT study design and methods.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). CVD risk scores underestimate risk in this population as CVD is driven by clustering of traditional and non-traditional risk factors, which lead to prognostic pathological changes in cardiovascular structure and function. While exercise may mitigate CVD in this population, evidence is limited, and physical activity levels and patient activation towards exercise and self-management are low. This pilot study will assess the feasibility of delivering a structured, home-based exercise intervention in a population of KTRs at increased cardiometabolic risk and evaluate the putative effects on cardiovascular structural and functional changes, cardiorespiratory fitness, quality of life, patient activation, healthcare utilisation and engagement with the prescribed exercise programme. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Fifty KTRs will be randomised 1:1 to: (1) the intervention; a 12week, home-based combined resistance and aerobic exercise intervention; or (2) the control; usual care. Intervention participants will have one introductory session for instruction and practice of the recommended exercises prior to receiving an exercise diary, dumbbells, resistance bands and access to instructional videos. The study will evaluate the feasibility of recruitment, randomisation, retention, assessment procedures and the intervention implementation. Outcomes, to be assessed prior to randomisation and postintervention, include: cardiac structure and function with stress perfusion cardiac MRI, cardiorespiratory fitness, physical function, blood biomarkers of cardiometabolic health, quality of life and patient activation. These data will be used to inform the power calculations for future definitive trials. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was reviewed and given favourable opinion by the East Midlands-Nottingham 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 19/EM/0209; 14 October 2019). Results will be published in peer-reviewed academic journals and will be disseminated to the patient and public community via social media, newsletter articles and presentations at conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04123951.

Measuring quality of life in trials including patients on dialysis: how are transplants and mortality incorporated into the analysis? A systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: It is estimated that 25 000 people in the UK receive dialysis. Dialysis is an intrusive and time-consuming intervention that causes significant reductions in quality of life. When enrolled in a clinical trial, often some patients drop out of the study either because they die, receive a kidney transplant or are lost to follow-up for other reasons. It is unclear how these events are dealt with when analysing quality of life measures within clinical trials. This review will assess current practice for dealing with loss to follow-up in trials including patients on haemodialysis. The methods currently used will be analysed in terms of their adequacy and will form the basis of future work assessing the most appropriate methods to employ under these circumstances. The results of this review will feed into recommendations for future nephrology trials. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search of electronic databases including MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library will be conducted to find clinical trials enrolling patients on haemodialysis that measure quality of life using either the kidney disease quality of life (KDQoL) or the short form 36 health survey (SF-36) (or any variation of these two measures). Ongoing trials will be identified through a search of trial registers. Articles will be screened against inclusion/exclusion criteria and data will be extracted using a predetermined data extraction form. General information such as the title, location, trial design will be extracted along with more specific information on how the study dealt with patients that died or received a transplant before the end of the follow-up period. Two independent reviewers will perform screening and extraction. Disagreements will be resolved by discussion or by a third independent reviewer. Data synthesis will be performed as a narrative summary. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required. Dissemination will be by publication in a peer-reviewed journal. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020223869.

Nutritional supplementation for nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of non-alcohol-related fatty liver disease (NAFLD) varies between 19% and 33% in different populations. NAFLD decreases life expectancy and increases risks of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the requirement for liver transplantation. Uncertainty surrounds relative benefits and harms of various nutritional supplements in NAFLD. Currently no nutritional supplement is recommended for people with NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: • To assess the benefits and harms of different nutritional supplements for treatment of NAFLD through a network meta-analysis • To generate rankings of different nutritional supplements according to their safety and efficacy SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until February 2021 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with NAFLD. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) for people with NAFLD, irrespective of method of diagnosis, age and diabetic status of participants, or presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had previously undergone liver transplantation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods whenever possible and calculated differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. MAIN RESULTS: We included in the review a total of 202 randomised clinical trials (14,200 participants). Nineteen trials were at low risk of bias. A total of 32 different interventions were compared in these trials. A total of 115 trials (7732 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The remaining trials did not report any of the outcomes of interest for this review. Follow-up ranged from 1 month to 28 months. The follow-up period in trials that reported clinical outcomes was 2 months to 28 months. During this follow-up period, clinical events related to NAFLD such as mortality, liver cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver transplantation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality were sparse. We did not calculate effect estimates for mortality because of sparse data (zero events for at least one of the groups in the trial). None of the trials reported that they measured overall health-related quality of life using a validated scale. The evidence is very uncertain about effects of interventions on serious adverse events (number of people or number of events). We are very uncertain about effects on adverse events of most of the supplements that we investigated, as the evidence is of very low certainty. However, people taking PUFA (polyunsaturated fatty acid) may be more likely to experience an adverse event than those not receiving an active intervention (network meta-analysis results: OR 4.44, 95% CrI 2.40 to 8.48; low-certainty evidence; 4 trials, 203 participants; direct evidence: OR 4.43, 95% CrI 2.43 to 8.42). People who take other supplements (a category that includes nutritional supplements other than vitamins, fatty acids, phospholipids, and antioxidants) had higher numbers of adverse events than those not receiving an active intervention (network meta-analysis: rate ratio 1.73, 95% CrI 1.26 to 2.41; 6 trials, 291 participants; direct evidence: rate ratio 1.72, 95% CrI 1.25 to 2.40; low-certainty evidence). Data were sparse (zero events in all groups in the trial) for liver transplantation, liver decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. So, we did not perform formal analysis for these outcomes. The evidence is very uncertain about effects of other antioxidants (antioxidants other than vitamins) compared to no active intervention on liver cirrhosis (HR 1.68, 95% CrI 0.23 to 15.10; 1 trial, 99 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about effects of interventions in any of the remaining comparisons, or data were sparse (with zero events in at least one of the groups), precluding formal calculations of effect estimates. Data were probably because of the very short follow-up period (2 months to 28 months). It takes follow-up of 8 to 28 years to detect differences in mortality between people with NAFLD and the general population. Therefore, it is unlikely that differences in clinical outcomes are noted in trials providing less than 5 to 10 years of follow-up. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about effects of nutritional supplementation compared to no additional intervention on all clinical outcomes for people with non-alcohol-related fatty liver disease. Accordingly, high-quality randomised comparative clinical trials with adequate follow-up are needed. We propose registry-based randomised clinical trials or cohort multiple randomised clinical trials (study design in which multiple interventions are trialed within large longitudinal cohorts of patients to gain efficiencies and align trials more closely to standard clinical practice) comparing interventions such as vitamin E, prebiotics/probiotics/synbiotics, PUFAs, and no nutritional supplementation. The reason for the choice of interventions is the impact of these interventions on indirect outcomes, which may translate to clinical benefit. Outcomes in such trials should be mortality, health-related quality of life, decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver transplantation, and resource utilisation measures including costs of intervention and decreased healthcare utilisation after minimum follow-up of 8 years (to find meaningful differences in clinically important outcomes).

A Cost-Effective Analysis of the CYCLE-HD Randomized Controlled Trial.

INTRODUCTION: No formal cost-effectiveness analysis has been performed for programs of cycling exercise during dialysis (intradialytic cycling [IDC]). The objective of this analysis is to determine the effect of a 6-month program of IDC on health care costs. METHODS: This is a retrospective formal cost-effectiveness analysis of adult participants with end-stage kidney disease undertaking in-center maintenance hemodialysis enrolled in the CYCLE-HD trial. Data on hospital utilization, primary care consultations, and prescribed medications were extracted from medical records for the 6 months before, during, and after a 6-month program of thrice-weekly IDC. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health care service perspective and included the cost of implementing the IDC intervention. The base-case analyses included a 6-month "within trial" analysis and a 12-month "within and posttrial" analysis considering health care utilization and quality of life (QoL) outcomes. RESULTS: Data from the base-case within trial analysis, based on 109 participants (n = 56 control subjects and n = 53 IDC subjects) showed a reduction in health care utilization costs between groups, favoring the IDC group, and a 73% chance of IDC being cost-effective compared with control subjects at a willingness to pay of £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When QoL data points were extrapolated forward to 12 months, the probability of IDC being cost-effective was 93% and 94% at £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis broadly confirms these findings. CONCLUSION: A 6-month program of IDC is cost-effective and the implementation of these programs nationally should be a priority.

Lifestyle modifications for nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease (NAFLD) varies between 19% and 33% in different populations. NAFLD decreases life expectancy and increases the risks of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and requirement for liver transplantation. There is uncertainty surrounding the relative benefits and harms of various lifestyle interventions for people with NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: To assess the comparative benefits and harms of different lifestyle interventions in the treatment of NAFLD through a network meta-analysis, and to generate rankings of the different lifestyle interventions according to their safety and efficacy. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until February 2021 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with NAFLD. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in people with NAFLD, whatever the method of diagnosis, age, and diabetic status of participants, or presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had previously undergone liver transplantation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We planned to perform a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods and to calculate the differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and rate ratios (RaRs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) based on an available-participant analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. However, the data were too sparse for the clinical outcomes. We therefore performed only direct comparisons (head-to-head comparisons) with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods. MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 59 randomised clinical trials (3631 participants) in the review. All but two trials were at high risk of bias. A total of 33 different interventions, ranging from advice to supervised exercise and special diets, or a combination of these and no additional intervention were compared in these trials. The reference treatment was no active intervention. Twenty-eight trials (1942 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The follow-up ranged from 1 month to 24 months. The remaining trials did not report any of the outcomes of interest for this review. The follow-up period in the trials that reported clinical outcomes was 2 months to 24 months. During this short follow-up period, clinical events related to NAFLD such as mortality, liver cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver transplantation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality were sparse. This is probably because of the very short follow-up periods. It takes a follow-up of 8 years to 28 years to detect differences in mortality between people with NAFLD and the general population. It is therefore unlikely that differences by clinical outcomes will be noted in trials with less than 5 years to 10 years of follow-up. In one trial, one participant developed an adverse event. There were no adverse events in any of the remaining participants in this trial, or in any of the remaining trials, which seemed to be directly related to the intervention. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effects of the lifestyle interventions compared with no additional intervention (to general public health advice) on any of the clinical outcomes after a short follow-up period of 2 months to 24 months in people with nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease. Accordingly, high-quality randomised clinical trials with adequate follow-up are needed. We propose registry-based randomised clinical trials or cohort multiple randomised clinical trials (a study design in which multiple interventions are trialed within large longitudinal cohorts of participants to gain efficiencies and align trials more closely to standard clinical practice), comparing aerobic exercise and dietary advice versus standard of care (exercise and dietary advice received as part of national health promotion). The reason for the choice of aerobic exercise and dietary advice is the impact of these interventions on indirect outcomes which may translate to clinical benefit. The outcomes in such trials should be mortality, health-related quality of life, decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver transplantation, and resource use measures including costs of intervention and decreased healthcare use after a minimum follow-up of eight years, to find meaningful differences in the clinically important outcomes.

Interrater agreement in dementia diagnosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Dementia remains a clinical diagnosis with a degree of subjective assessment and potential for interrater disagreement. We described interrater agreement of clinical dementia diagnosis for various diagnostic criteria. METHODS: We conducted a PROSPERO-registered (CRD42020168245) systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched multiple cross-disciplinary databases from inception until April 2020 for relevant papers, extracted data and described study quality in duplicate. Study quality was assessed using the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies. We used random-effects models to obtain summary estimates of interrater agreement using kappa and, where possible, Gwet's AC1/2 coefficients. RESULTS: We found 7577 titles and 22 eligible studies. Meta-analysis was possible for all-cause dementia using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders third edition revised (DSM-III-R) criteria (kappa = 0.66, 95% CI = [0.53,0.78]), Alzheimer's disease using the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria (kappa = 0.71, 95% CI = [0.65,0.77] for presence/absence and AC2 = 0.61, 95% CI = [0.53,0.70] when distinguishing probable/possible cases), and vascular dementia using the International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) criteria kappa = 0.79 (95% CI = [0.70,0.87]). Data was more limited for other criteria and dementia types. AC1/2 coefficients generally indicated higher agreement. One study was rated as high quality. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic criteria for clinical dementia may have good but imperfect agreement. This has important implications for clinical practice and research studies, which frequently assume these criteria are perfect tests, such as diagnostic test accuracy studies frequently conducted for biomarkers and neuropsychological tests, and for trials where incident dementia is the outcome.