PheWAS-based clustering of Mendelian Randomisation instruments reveals distinct mechanism-specific causal effects between obesity and educational attainment.

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) estimates causal effects between risk factors and complex outcomes using genetic instruments. Pleiotropy, heritable confounders, and heterogeneous causal effects violate MR assumptions and can lead to biases. To alleviate these, we propose an approach employing a Phenome-Wide association Clustering of the MR instruments (PWC-MR) and apply this method to revisit the surprisingly large apparent causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on educational attainment (EDU): [Formula: see text] = -0.19 [-0.22, -0.16]. First, we cluster 324 BMI-associated genetic instruments based on their association with 407 traits in the UK Biobank, which yields six distinct groups. Subsequent cluster-specific MR reveals heterogeneous causal effect estimates on EDU. A cluster enriched for socio-economic indicators yields the largest BMI-on-EDU causal effect estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.49 [-0.56, -0.42]) whereas a cluster enriched for body-mass specific traits provides a more likely estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.09 [-0.13, -0.05]). Follow-up analyses confirms these findings: within-sibling MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.09, -0.01]); MR for childhood BMI on EDU ([Formula: see text] = -0.03 [-0.06, -0.002]); step-wise multivariable MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.07, -0.02]) where socio-economic indicators are jointly modelled. Here we show how the in-depth examination of the BMI-EDU causal relationship demonstrates the utility of our PWC-MR approach in revealing distinct pleiotropic pathways and confounder mechanisms.

Genetic insights into the age-specific biological mechanisms governing human ovarian aging.

There is currently little evidence that the genetic basis of human phenotype varies significantly across the lifespan. However, time-to-event phenotypes are understudied and can be thought of as reflecting an underlying hazard, which is unlikely to be constant through life when values take a broad range. Here, we find that 74% of 245 genome-wide significant genetic associations with age at natural menopause (ANM) in the UK Biobank show a form of age-specific effect. Nineteen of these replicated discoveries are identified only by our modeling framework, which determines the time dependency of DNA-variant age-at-onset associations without a significant multiple-testing burden. Across the range of early to late menopause, we find evidence for significantly different underlying biological pathways, changes in the signs of genetic correlations of ANM to health indicators and outcomes, and differences in inferred causal relationships. We find that DNA damage response processes only act to shape ovarian reserve and depletion for women of early ANM. Genetically mediated delays in ANM were associated with increased relative risk of breast cancer and leiomyoma at all ages and with high cholesterol and heart failure for late-ANM women. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the age dependency of genetic risk factor relationships among health indicators and outcomes is achievable through appropriate statistical modeling of large-scale biobank data.

Genetic insights into the causal relationship between physical activity and cognitive functioning.

Physical activity and cognitive functioning are strongly intertwined. However, the causal relationships underlying this association are still unclear. Physical activity can enhance brain functions, but healthy cognition may also promote engagement in physical activity. Here, we assessed the bidirectional relationships between physical activity and general cognitive functioning using Latent Heritable Confounder Mendelian Randomization (LHC-MR). Association data were drawn from two large-scale genome-wide association studies (UK Biobank and COGENT) on accelerometer-measured moderate, vigorous, and average physical activity (N = 91,084) and cognitive functioning (N = 257,841). After Bonferroni correction, we observed significant LHC-MR associations suggesting that increased fraction of both moderate (b = 0.32, CI95% = [0.17,0.47], P = 2.89e - 05) and vigorous physical activity (b = 0.22, CI95% = [0.06,0.37], P = 0.007) lead to increased cognitive functioning. In contrast, we found no evidence of a causal effect of average physical activity on cognitive functioning, and no evidence of a reverse causal effect (cognitive functioning on any physical activity measures). These findings provide new evidence supporting a beneficial role of moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA) on cognitive functioning.

Simultaneous estimation of bi-directional causal effects and heritable confounding from GWAS summary statistics.

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) is an increasingly popular approach that estimates the causal effect of risk factors on complex human traits. While it has seen several extensions that relax its basic assumptions, most suffer from two major limitations; their under-exploitation of genome-wide markers, and sensitivity to the presence of a heritable confounder of the exposure-outcome relationship. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Latent Heritable Confounder MR (LHC-MR) method applicable to association summary statistics, which estimates bi-directional causal effects, direct heritabilities, and confounder effects while accounting for sample overlap. We demonstrate that LHC-MR outperforms several existing MR methods in a wide range of simulation settings and apply it to summary statistics of 13 complex traits. Besides several concordant results with other MR methods, LHC-MR unravels new mechanisms (how disease diagnosis might lead to improved lifestyle) and reveals new causal effects (e.g. HDL cholesterol being protective against high systolic blood pressure), hidden from standard MR methods due to a heritable confounder of opposite effect direction.

Composite trait Mendelian randomization reveals distinct metabolic and lifestyle consequences of differences in body shape.

Obesity is a major risk factor for a wide range of cardiometabolic diseases, however the impact of specific aspects of body morphology remains poorly understood. We combined the GWAS summary statistics of fourteen anthropometric traits from UK Biobank through principal component analysis to reveal four major independent axes: body size, adiposity, predisposition to abdominal fat deposition, and lean mass. Mendelian randomization analysis showed that although body size and adiposity both contribute to the consequences of BMI, many of their effects are distinct, such as body size increasing the risk of cardiac arrhythmia (b = 0.06, p = 4.2 ∗ 10-17) while adiposity instead increased that of ischemic heart disease (b = 0.079, p = 8.2 ∗ 10-21). The body mass-neutral component predisposing to abdominal fat deposition, likely reflecting a shift from subcutaneous to visceral fat, exhibited health effects that were weaker but specifically linked to lipotoxicity, such as ischemic heart disease (b = 0.067, p = 9.4 ∗ 10-14) and diabetes (b = 0.082, p = 5.9 ∗ 10-19). Combining their independent predicted effects significantly improved the prediction of obesity-related diseases (p < 10-10). The presented decomposition approach sheds light on the biological mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of body morphology and its consequences on health and lifestyle.

Triangulating evidence from longitudinal and Mendelian randomization studies of metabolomic biomarkers for type 2 diabetes.

The number of people affected by Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is close to half a billion and is on a sharp rise, representing a major and growing public health burden. Given its mild initial symptoms, T2DM is often diagnosed several years after its onset, leaving half of diabetic individuals undiagnosed. While several classical clinical and genetic biomarkers have been identified, improving early diagnosis by exploring other kinds of omics data remains crucial. In this study, we have combined longitudinal data from two population-based cohorts CoLaus and DESIR (comprising in total 493 incident cases vs. 1360 controls) to identify new or confirm previously implicated metabolomic biomarkers predicting T2DM incidence more than 5 years ahead of clinical diagnosis. Our longitudinal data have shown robust evidence for valine, leucine, carnitine and glutamic acid being predictive of future conversion to T2DM. We confirmed the causality of such association for leucine by 2-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) based on independent data. Our MR approach further identified new metabolites potentially playing a causal role on T2D, including betaine, lysine and mannose. Interestingly, for valine and leucine a strong reverse causal effect was detected, indicating that the genetic predisposition to T2DM may trigger early changes of these metabolites, which appear well-before any clinical symptoms. In addition, our study revealed a reverse causal effect of metabolites such as glutamic acid and alanine. Collectively, these findings indicate that molecular traits linked to the genetic basis of T2DM may be particularly promising early biomarkers.

Causal Inference Methods to Integrate Omics and Complex Traits.

Major biotechnological advances have facilitated a tremendous boost to the collection of (gen-/transcript-/prote-/methyl-/metabol-)omics data in very large sample sizes worldwide. Coordinated efforts have yielded a deluge of studies associating diseases with genetic markers (genome-wide association studies) or with molecular phenotypes. Whereas omics-disease associations have led to biologically meaningful and coherent mechanisms, the identified (non-germline) disease biomarkers may simply be correlates or consequences of the explored diseases. To move beyond this realm, Mendelian randomization provides a principled framework to integrate information on omics- and disease-associated genetic variants to pinpoint molecular traits causally driving disease development. In this review, we show the latest advances in this field, flag up key challenges for the future, and propose potential solutions.