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Cardiovascular diseases remain the number one cause of death globally. Cardiovascular disease risk scores are an integral tool in primary prevention, being used to identify individuals at the highest risk and guide the assignment of preventive interventions. Available risk scores differ substantially in terms of the population sample data sources used for their derivation and, consequently, in the absolute risks they assign to individuals. Differences in cardiovascular disease epidemiology between the populations contributing to the development of risk scores, and the target populations in which they are applied, can result in overestimation or underestimation of cardiovascular disease risks for individuals, and poorly informed clinical decisions. Given the wide plethora of cardiovascular disease risk scores available, identification of an appropriate risk score for a target population can be challenging. This Review provides an up-to-date overview of guideline-recommended cardiovascular disease risk scores from global, regional, and national contexts, evaluates their comparative characteristics and qualities, and provides guidance on selection of an appropriate risk score.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Prevención Primaria , Humanos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/prevención & control , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad CardiacaRESUMEN
Gene misexpression is the aberrant transcription of a gene in a context where it is usually inactive. Despite its known pathological consequences in specific rare diseases, we have a limited understanding of its wider prevalence and mechanisms in humans. To address this, we analyzed gene misexpression in 4,568 whole-blood bulk RNA sequencing samples from INTERVAL study blood donors. We found that while individual misexpression events occur rarely, in aggregate they were found in almost all samples and a third of inactive protein-coding genes. Using 2,821 paired whole-genome and RNA sequencing samples, we identified that misexpression events are enriched in cis for rare structural variants. We established putative mechanisms through which a subset of SVs lead to gene misexpression, including transcriptional readthrough, transcript fusions, and gene inversion. Overall, we develop misexpression as a type of transcriptomic outlier analysis and extend our understanding of the variety of mechanisms by which genetic variants can influence gene expression.
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Regulación de la Expresión Génica , Humanos , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN , Variación Genética , Variación Estructural del Genoma/genética , Transcriptoma/genética , Donantes de SangreRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure benefits older patients with PFO and cryptogenic stroke is unknown because randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have predominantly enrolled patients younger than 60 years of age. Our objective was to estimate anticipated effects of PFO closure in older patients to predict the numbers needed to plan an RCT. METHODS: Effectiveness estimates are derived from major observational studies (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism [RoPE] Study and Oxford Vascular Study, together referred to as the "RoPE-Ox" database) and all 6 major RCTs (Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation [SCOPE] Consortium). To estimate stroke recurrence risk, observed outcomes were calculated for patients older than 60 years in the age-inclusive observational databases (n = 549). To estimate the reduction in the rate of recurrent stroke associated with PFO closure vs medical therapy based on the RoPE score and the presence of high-risk PFO features, a Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed on the RCT data in the SCOPE database (n = 3,740). These estimates were used to calculate sample sizes required for a future RCT. RESULTS: Five-year risk of stroke recurrence using Kaplan-Meier estimates was 13.7 (95% CI 10.5-17.9) overall, 14.9% (95% CI 10.2-21.6) in those with high-risk PFO features. Predicted relative reduction in the event rate with PFO closure was 12.9% overall, 48.8% in those with a high-risk PFO feature. Using these estimates, enrolling all older patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO would require much larger samples than those used for prior PFO closure trials, but selectively enrolling patients with high-risk PFO features would require totals of 630 patients for 90% power and 471 patients for 80% power, with an average of 5 years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Based on our projections, anticipated effect sizes in older patients with high-risk features make a trial in these subjects feasible. With lengthening life expectancy in almost all regions of the world, the utility of PFO closure in older adults is increasingly important to explore.
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Estudios de Factibilidad , Foramen Oval Permeable , Selección de Paciente , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Humanos , Foramen Oval Permeable/complicaciones , Foramen Oval Permeable/cirugía , Anciano , Accidente Cerebrovascular/etiología , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Recurrencia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Factores de Edad , Anciano de 80 o más AñosRESUMEN
Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are chronic cancers characterized by overproduction of mature blood cells. Their causative somatic mutations, for example, JAK2V617F, are common in the population, yet only a minority of carriers develop MPN. Here we show that the inherited polygenic loci that underlie common hematological traits influence JAK2V617F clonal expansion. We identify polygenic risk scores (PGSs) for monocyte count and plateletcrit as new risk factors for JAK2V617F positivity. PGSs for several hematological traits influenced the risk of different MPN subtypes, with low PGSs for two platelet traits also showing protective effects in JAK2V617F carriers, making them two to three times less likely to have essential thrombocythemia than carriers with high PGSs. We observed that extreme hematological PGSs may contribute to an MPN diagnosis in the absence of somatic driver mutations. Our study showcases how polygenic backgrounds underlying common hematological traits influence both clonal selection on somatic mutations and the subsequent phenotype of cancer.
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Trastornos Mieloproliferativos , Neoplasias , Humanos , Mutación , Trastornos Mieloproliferativos/genética , Trastornos Mieloproliferativos/diagnóstico , Fenotipo , Janus Quinasa 2/genética , Puntuación de Riesgo GenéticoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Cushing's syndrome is characterized by hypercortisolaemia and is frequently accompanied by comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, osteoporosis, depression and schizophrenia. It is unclear whether moderate but lifelong hypercortisolaemia is causally associated with these diseases in the general population. We aimed to address this research gap using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS: We used three cortisol-associated genetic variants in the SERPINA6/SERPINA1 region as genetic instruments in a two-sample, inverse-variance-weighted Mendelian randomization analysis. We obtained summary-level statistics for cortisol and disease outcomes from publicly available genetic consortia, and meta-analysed them as appropriate. We conducted a multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis to assess potential mediating effects. RESULTS: A 1 standard deviation higher genetically predicted plasma cortisol was associated with greater odds of hypertension (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.18) as well as higher systolic blood pressure (mean difference [MD]: 0.03 SD change; 95% CI: 0.01-0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (MD: 0.03 SD change; 95% CI: 0.01-0.04). There was no evidence of association with type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, depression and schizophrenia. The association with hypertension was attenuated upon adjustment for waist circumference, suggesting potential mediation through central obesity. CONCLUSION: There is strong evidence for a causal association between plasma cortisol and greater risk for hypertension, potentially mediated by obesity.
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Síndrome de Cushing , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Hipertensión , Osteoporosis , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/genética , Hidrocortisona , Análisis de la Aleatorización Mendeliana , Hipertensión/genética , Enfermedad Crónica , Síndrome de Cushing/genética , Obesidad , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although the genetic determinants of haemoglobin and ferritin have been widely studied, those of the clinically and globally relevant iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) and deferral due to hypohaemoglobinemia (Hb-deferral) are unclear. In this investigation, we aimed to quantify the value of genetic information in predicting IDA and Hb-deferral. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed genetic data from up to 665,460 participants of the FinnGen, Blood Service Biobank and UK Biobank, and used INTERVAL (N = 39,979) for validation. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of IDA and Hb-deferral and utilized publicly available genetic associations to compute polygenic scores for IDA, ferritin and Hb. We fitted models to estimate the effect sizes of these polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on IDA and Hb-deferral risk while accounting for the individual's age, sex, weight, height, smoking status and blood donation history. RESULTS: Significant variants in GWASs of IDA and Hb-deferral appear to be a small subset of variants associated with ferritin and Hb. Effect sizes of genetic predictors of IDA and Hb-deferral are similar to those of age and weight which are typically used in blood donor management. A total genetic score for Hb-deferral was estimated for each individual. The odds ratio estimate between first decile against that at ninth decile of total genetic score distribution ranged from 1.4 to 2.2. CONCLUSION: The value of genetic data in predicting IDA or suitability to donate blood appears to be on a practically useful level.
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Anemia Ferropénica , Humanos , Anemia Ferropénica/genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Ferritinas/genética , Hemoglobinas/análisisRESUMEN
AIMS: Although trials have proven the group-level effectiveness of various therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective for Heart Failure (LIFE-HF) model for the prediction of individual (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in patients with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards functions with age as the time scale were developed in the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE trials (n = 15 415). Outcomes were cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, New York Heart Association class, prior HF hospitalization, diabetes mellitus, extracardiac vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and glomerular filtration rate. The functions were combined in life-tables to predict individual overall and HF hospitalization-free survival. External validation was performed in the SwedeHF registry, ASIAN-HF registry, and DAPA-HF trial (n = 51 286). Calibration of 2- to 10-year risk was adequate, and c-statistics were 0.65-0.74. An interactive tool was developed combining the model with hazard ratios from trials to allow estimation of an individual's (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in clinical practice. Applying the tool to the development cohort, combined treatment with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was estimated to afford a median of 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.7) and 3.7 (IQR 2.4-5.5) additional years of overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: The LIFE-HF model enables estimation of lifelong overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, and (lifetime) treatment benefit for individual patients with HFrEF. It could serve as a tool to improve the management of HFrEF by facilitating personalized medicine and shared decision-making.
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Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Disfunción Ventricular Izquierda , Humanos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/tratamiento farmacológico , Volumen Sistólico/fisiología , Función Ventricular Izquierda , CorazónRESUMEN
AIMS: Observational evidence suggests associations between sex hormone levels and heart failure (HF). We used sex-specific genetic variants associated with androgenic sex hormone profiles to investigate the causal relevance of androgenic sex hormone profiles on cardiac structure and function and HF using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific uncorrelated genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8 ) variants predicting sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), total testosterone, and bioavailable testosterone were extracted from summary statistics of genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 425 097 participants in the UK Biobank. Sex-specific gene-outcome association estimates were computed for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes (LVEDV and LVESV, respectively), left ventricular stroke volume (LVSV), cardiac index, and cardiac output in 11 528 female and 14 356 male UK Biobank Imaging Study participants and for incident or prevalent HF in an external cohort of 47 309 cases and 930 014 controls. Inverse-variance weighted MR was the primary analysis method. In females, higher genetically predicted bioavailable testosterone was associated with lower LVEDV [ß per nmol/L = -0.11 (-0.19 to -0.03), P = 0.006], lower LVESV [ß = -0.09 (-0.17 to -0.01), P = 0.022], lower LVSV [ß = -0.11 (-0.18 to -0.03), P = 0.005], lower cardiac output [ß = -0.08 (-0.16 to 0.00), P = 0.046], and lower cardiac index [ß = -0.08 (-0.16 to -0.01), P = 0.034] and a higher risk of HF [odds ratio 1.10 (1.01-1.19), P = 0.026] on external validation analysis in larger scale, sex-adjusted GWAS data. Higher genetically predicted SHBG was associated with higher LVEDV [ß per nmol/L = 0.17 (0.08-0.25), P = 2 × 10-4 ], higher LVESV [ß = 0.13 (0.05-0.22), P = 0.003], and higher LVSV [ß = 0.18 (0.08-0.28), P = 2 × 10-4 ]. In males, higher genetically predicted total and bioavailable testosterone was associated with lower LVESV [ß = -0.07 (-0.12 to -0.02), P = 0.007] and LVEF [ß = -0.11 (-0.18 to -0.04), P = 0.003], respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a causal effect of pro-androgenic sex hormone profiles in females on adverse markers of left ventricular structure and function typically associated with HF with preserved ejection fraction and with HF. There was weaker evidence of association in males.
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Andrógenos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Volumen Sistólico , Función Ventricular Izquierda , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Análisis de la Aleatorización Mendeliana , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/genética , Testosterona , Hormonas Esteroides GonadalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Vasovagal reactions (VVRs) are the most common acute complications of blood donation. Responsible for substantial morbidity, they also reduce the likelihood of repeated donations and are disruptive and costly for blood services. Although blood establishments worldwide have adopted different strategies to prevent VVRs (including water loading and applied muscle tension [AMT]), robust evidence is limited. The Strategies to Improve Donor Experiences (STRIDES) trial aims to reliably assess the impact of four different interventions to prevent VVRs among blood donors. METHODS: STRIDES is a cluster-randomised cross-over/stepped-wedge factorial trial of four interventions to reduce VVRs involving about 1.4 million whole blood donors enrolled from all 73 blood donation sites (mobile teams and donor centres) of National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) in England. Each site ("cluster") has been randomly allocated to receive one or more interventions during a 36-month period, using principles of cross-over, stepped-wedge and factorial trial design to assign the sequence of interventions. Each of the four interventions is compared to NHSBT's current practices: (i) 500-ml isotonic drink before donation (vs current 500-ml plain water); (ii) 3-min rest on donation chair after donation (vs current 2 min); (iii) new modified AMT (vs current practice of AMT); and (iv) psychosocial intervention using preparatory materials (vs current practice of nothing). The primary outcome is the number of in-session VVRs with loss of consciousness (i.e. episodes involving loss of consciousness of any duration, with or without additional complications). Secondary outcomes include all in-session VVRs (i.e. with and without loss of consciousness), all delayed VVRs (i.e. those occurring after leaving the venue) and any in-session non-VVR adverse events or reactions. DISCUSSION: The STRIDES trial should yield novel information about interventions, singly and in combination, for the prevention of VVRs, with the aim of generating policy-shaping evidence to help inform blood services to improve donor health, donor experience, and service efficiency. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 10412338. Registration date: October 24, 2019.
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Donantes de Sangre , Síncope Vasovagal , Humanos , Medicina Estatal , Síncope Vasovagal/diagnóstico , Síncope Vasovagal/etiología , Síncope Vasovagal/prevención & control , Agua , Donación de SangreRESUMEN
Blood cells contain functionally important intracellular structures, such as granules, critical to immunity and thrombosis. Quantitative variation in these structures has not been subjected previously to large-scale genetic analysis. We perform genome-wide association studies of 63 flow-cytometry derived cellular phenotypes-including cell-type specific measures of granularity, nucleic acid content and reactivity-in 41,515 participants in the INTERVAL study. We identify 2172 distinct variant-trait associations, including associations near genes coding for proteins in organelles implicated in inflammatory and thrombotic diseases. By integrating with epigenetic data we show that many intracellular structures are likely to be determined in immature precursor cells. By integrating with proteomic data we identify the transcription factor FOG2 as an early regulator of platelet formation and α-granularity. Finally, we show that colocalisation of our associations with disease risk signals can suggest aetiological cell-types-variants in IL2RA and ITGA4 respectively mirror the known effects of daclizumab in multiple sclerosis and vedolizumab in inflammatory bowel disease.
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Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Proteómica , Microscopía , Factores de Transcripción , CausalidadRESUMEN
Rare genetic diseases affect millions, and identifying causal DNA variants is essential for patient care. Therefore, it is imperative to estimate the effect of each independent variant and improve their pathogenicity classification. Our study of 140 214 unrelated UK Biobank (UKB) participants found that each of them carries a median of 7 variants previously reported as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. We focused on 967 diagnostic-grade gene (DGG) variants for rare bleeding, thrombotic, and platelet disorders (BTPDs) observed in 12 367 UKB participants. By association analysis, for a subset of these variants, we estimated effect sizes for platelet count and volume, and odds ratios for bleeding and thrombosis. Variants causal of some autosomal recessive platelet disorders revealed phenotypic consequences in carriers. Loss-of-function variants in MPL, which cause chronic amegakaryocytic thrombocytopenia if biallelic, were unexpectedly associated with increased platelet counts in carriers. We also demonstrated that common variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for platelet count or thrombosis risk may influence the penetrance of rare variants in BTPD DGGs on their associated hemostasis disorders. Network-propagation analysis applied to an interactome of 18 410 nodes and 571 917 edges showed that GWAS variants with large effect sizes are enriched in DGGs and their first-order interactors. Finally, we illustrate the modifying effect of polygenic scores for platelet count and thrombosis risk on disease severity in participants carrying rare variants in TUBB1 or PROC and PROS1, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the power of association analyses using large population datasets in improving pathogenicity classifications of rare variants.
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Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Trombosis , Humanos , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Hemostasis , Hemorragia/genética , Enfermedades RarasRESUMEN
Importance: Longer leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with a lower risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The extent to which variation in LTL is associated with intermediary cardiovascular phenotypes is unclear. Objective: To evaluate the associations between LTL and a diverse set of cardiovascular imaging phenotypes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a population-based cross-sectional study of UK Biobank participants recruited from 2006 to 2010. LTL was measured using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction method. Cardiovascular measurements were derived from cardiovascular magnetic resonance using machine learning. The median (IQR) duration of follow-up was 12.0 (11.3-12.7) years. The associations of LTL with imaging measurements and incident heart failure (HF) were evaluated by multivariable regression models. Genetic associations between LTL and significantly associated traits were investigated by mendelian randomization. Data were analyzed from January to May 2023. Exposure: LTL. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiovascular imaging traits and HF. Results: Of 40â¯459 included participants, 19 529 (48.3%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 55.1 (7.6) years. Longer LTL was independently associated with a pattern of positive cardiac remodeling (higher left ventricular mass, larger global ventricular size and volume, and higher ventricular and atrial stroke volumes) and a lower risk of incident HF (LTL fourth quartile vs first quartile: hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.91; P = 1.8 × 10-6). Mendelian randomization analysis suggested a potential causal association between LTL and left ventricular mass, global ventricular volume, and left ventricular stroke volume. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, longer LTL was associated with a larger heart with better cardiac function in middle age, which could potentially explain the observed lower risk of incident HF.
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Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Humanos , Femenino , Estudios Transversales , Fenotipo , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/genética , Leucocitos , Telómero/genéticaRESUMEN
Background The aim of this study was to provide quantitative evidence of the use of polygenic risk scores for systematically identifying individuals for invitation for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Methods and Results A total of 108 685 participants aged 40 to 69 years, with measured biomarkers, linked primary care records, and genetic data in UK Biobank were used for model derivation and population health modeling. Prioritization tools using age, polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke, and conventional risk factors for CVD available within longitudinal primary care records were derived using sex-specific Cox models. We modeled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after prioritizing individuals for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment. If primary care records were used to prioritize individuals for formal risk assessment using age- and sex-specific thresholds corresponding to 5% false-negative rates, then the numbers of men and women needed to be screened to prevent 1 CVD event are 149 and 280, respectively. In contrast, adding polygenic risk scores to both prioritization and formal assessments, and selecting thresholds to capture the same number of events, resulted in a number needed to screen of 116 for men and 180 for women. Conclusions Using both polygenic risk scores and primary care records to prioritize individuals at highest risk of a CVD event for a formal CVD risk assessment can efficiently prioritize those who need interventions the most than using primary care records alone. This could lead to better allocation of resources by reducing the number of risk assessments in primary care while still preventing the same number of CVD events.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/genética , Factores de Riesgo , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/complicaciones , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Accidente Cerebrovascular/genética , Accidente Cerebrovascular/prevención & controlRESUMEN
This retrospective cohort study investigated the incidence and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after 1 year of first-documented myocardial infarctions (MIs) in a multi-ethnic Asian population. Secondary MACE were observed in 231 (14.3%) individuals, including 92 (5.7%) cardiovascular-related deaths. Both histories of hypertension and diabetes were associated with secondary MACE after adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity (HR 1.60 [95%CI 1.22-2.12] and 1.46 [95%CI 1.09-1.97], respectively). With further adjustments for traditional risk factors, individuals with conduction disturbances demonstrated higher risks of MACE: new left-bundle branch block (HR 2.86 [95%CI 1.15-6.55]), right-bundle branch block (HR 2.09 [95%CI 1.02-4.29]), and second-degree heart block (HR 2.45 [95%CI 0.59-10.16]). These associations were broadly similar across different age, sex, and ethnicity groups, although somewhat greater for history of hypertension and BMI among women versus men, for HbA1c control in individuals aged >50 years, and for LVEF ≤ 40% in those with Indian versus Chinese or Bumiputera ethnicities. Several traditional and cardiac risk factors are associated with a higher risk of secondary major adverse cardiovascular events. In addition to hypertension and diabetes, the identification of conduction disturbances in individuals with first-onset MI may be useful for the risk stratification of high-risk individuals.
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The benefits of large-scale genetic studies for healthcare of the populations studied are well documented, but these genetic studies have traditionally ignored people from some parts of the world, such as South Asia. Here we describe whole genome sequence (WGS) data from 4806 individuals recruited from the healthcare delivery systems of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, combined with WGS from 927 individuals from isolated South Asian populations. We characterize population structure in South Asia and describe a genotyping array (SARGAM) and imputation reference panel that are optimized for South Asian genomes. We find evidence for high rates of reproductive isolation, endogamy and consanguinity that vary across the subcontinent and that lead to levels of rare homozygotes that reach 100 times that seen in outbred populations. Founder effects increase the power to associate functional variants with disease processes and make South Asia a uniquely powerful place for population-scale genetic studies.
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Pueblo Asiatico , Efecto Fundador , Humanos , Pueblo Asiatico/genética , Bangladesh , Homocigoto , India , Pakistán , Personas del Sur de AsiaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Many models developed for predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are adjusted for the competing risk of non-CVD mortality, which has been suggested to reduce potential overestimation of cumulative incidence in populations where the risk of competing events is high. The objective was to evaluate and illustrate the clinical impact of competing risk adjustment when deriving a CVD prediction model in a high-risk population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals with established atherosclerotic CVD were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART). In 8355 individuals, followed for a median of 8.2 years (IQR 4.2-12.5), two similar prediction models for the estimation of 10-year residual CVD risk were derived: with competing risk adjustment using a Fine and Gray model and without competing risk adjustment using a Cox proportional hazards model. On average, predictions were higher from the Cox model. The Cox model predictions overestimated the cumulative incidence [predicted-observed ratio 1.14 (95% CI 1.09-1.20)], which was most apparent in the highest risk quartiles and in older persons. Discrimination of both models was similar. When determining treatment eligibility on thresholds of predicted risks, more individuals would be treated based on the Cox model predictions. If, for example, individuals with a predicted risk > 20% were considered eligible for treatment, 34% of the population would be treated according to the Fine and Gray model predictions and 44% according to the Cox model predictions. INTERPRETATION: Individual predictions from the model unadjusted for competing risks were higher, reflecting the different interpretations of both models. For models aiming to accurately predict absolute risks, especially in high-risk populations, competing risk adjustment must be considered.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Factores de Riesgo , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/etiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Ajuste de Riesgo , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad CardiacaRESUMEN
AIMS: In clinical practice, factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) like albuminuria, education level, or coronary artery calcium (CAC) are often known, but not incorporated in cardiovascular risk prediction models. The aims of the current study were to evaluate a methodology for the flexible addition of risk modifying characteristics on top of SCORE2 and to quantify the added value of several clinically relevant risk modifying characteristics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals without previous CVD or DM were included from the UK Biobank; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA); European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, The Netherlands (EPIC-NL); and Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) studies (n = 409 757) in whom 16 166 CVD events and 19 149 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed over exactly 10.0 years of follow-up. The effect of each possible risk modifying characteristic was derived using competing risk-adjusted Fine and Gray models. The risk modifying characteristics were applied to individual predictions with a flexible method using the population prevalence and the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of the relevant predictor. Risk modifying characteristics that increased discrimination most were CAC percentile with 0.0198 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0115; 0.0281] and hs-Troponin-T with 0.0100 (95% CI 0.0063; 0.0137). External validation was performed in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) cohort (UK, n = 518 015, 12 675 CVD events). Adjustment of SCORE2-predicted risks with both single and multiple risk modifiers did not negatively affect calibration and led to a modest increase in discrimination [0.740 (95% CI 0.736-0.745) vs. unimproved SCORE2 risk C-index 0.737 (95% CI 0.732-0.741)]. CONCLUSION: The current paper presents a method on how to integrate possible risk modifying characteristics that are not included in existing CVD risk models for the prediction of CVD event risk in apparently healthy people. This flexible methodology improves the accuracy of predicted risks and increases applicability of prediction models for individuals with additional risk known modifiers.
Heart disease is a major health concern worldwide, and predicting an individual's risk for developing heart disease is an important tool for prevention. Current risk prediction models often use factors such as age, gender, smoking, and blood pressure, but other factors like education level, albuminuria (protein in the urine), and coronary artery calcium (CAC) may also affect an individual's risk. The aim of this study was to develop a new method for using these additional risk factors for predicting risk even more accurately. The researchers used data from several large studies that included over 400 000 apparently healthy individuals who were followed for 10 years. They examined the effect of various risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using a statistical model. They found that adding coronary scan ('CAC score'); NT-proBNP, a biomarker of heart strain; and hs-Troponin-T, a marker of heart damage, to the existing risk prediction model (SCORE2) improved the accuracy of predicted CVD risk. The key findings are: The methods presented in the current study can help to add additional risk factors to predictions of existing models, such as SCORE2. This flexible method may help identify individuals who are at higher risk for CVD and guide prevention strategies.
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Aterosclerosis , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Humanos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/diagnóstico , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Estudios Prospectivos , Aterosclerosis/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad Cardiaca , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
The use of omic modalities to dissect the molecular underpinnings of common diseases and traits is becoming increasingly common. But multi-omic traits can be genetically predicted, which enables highly cost-effective and powerful analyses for studies that do not have multi-omics1. Here we examine a large cohort (the INTERVAL study2; n = 50,000 participants) with extensive multi-omic data for plasma proteomics (SomaScan, n = 3,175; Olink, n = 4,822), plasma metabolomics (Metabolon HD4, n = 8,153), serum metabolomics (Nightingale, n = 37,359) and whole-blood Illumina RNA sequencing (n = 4,136), and use machine learning to train genetic scores for 17,227 molecular traits, including 10,521 that reach Bonferroni-adjusted significance. We evaluate the performance of genetic scores through external validation across cohorts of individuals of European, Asian and African American ancestries. In addition, we show the utility of these multi-omic genetic scores by quantifying the genetic control of biological pathways and by generating a synthetic multi-omic dataset of the UK Biobank3 to identify disease associations using a phenome-wide scan. We highlight a series of biological insights with regard to genetic mechanisms in metabolism and canonical pathway associations with disease; for example, JAK-STAT signalling and coronary atherosclerosis. Finally, we develop a portal ( https://www.omicspred.org/ ) to facilitate public access to all genetic scores and validation results, as well as to serve as a platform for future extensions and enhancements of multi-omic genetic scores.