Regression of Cardiac Lymphoma With Chemotherapy.

A patient was admitted for chest pain with electrocardiographic changes, and cardiac magnetic resonance showed focal myocardial hypertrophy secondary to edema. Combined positron emission tomography and computed tomography corroborated foci of myocardial hypermetabolism, as well as multiple adenopathies consistent with lymphoma in the biopsy. Hypertrophy and edema regressed with chemotherapy.

Leveraging GWAS data derived from a large cooperative group trial to assess the risk of taxane-induced peripheral neuropathy (TIPN) in patients being treated for breast cancer: Part 2-functional implications of a SNP cluster associated with TIPN risk in patients being treated for breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Using GWAS data derived from a large collaborative trial (ECOG-5103), we identified a cluster of 267 SNPs which predicted CIPN in treatment-naive patients as reported in Part 1 of this study. To assess the functional and pathological implications of this set, we identified collective gene signatures were and evaluated the informational value of those signatures in defining CIPN's pathogenesis. METHODS: In Part 1, we analyzed GWAS data derived from ECOG-5103, first identifying those SNPs that were most strongly associated with CIPN using Fisher's ratio. After identifying those SNPs which differentiated CIPN-positive from CIPN-negative phenotypes, we ranked them in order of their discriminatory power to produce a cluster of SNPs which provided the highest predictive accuracy using leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV). An uncertainty analysis was included. Using the best predictive SNP cluster, we performed gene attribution for each SNP using NCBI Phenotype Genotype Integrator and then assessed functionality by applying GeneAnalytics, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, and PCViz. RESULTS: Using aggregate data derived from the GWAS, we identified a 267 SNP cluster which was associated with a CIPN+ phenotype with an accuracy of 96.1%. We could attribute 173 genes to the 267 SNP cluster. Six long intergenic non-protein coding genes were excluded. Ultimately, the functional analysis was based on 138 genes. Of the 17 pathways identified by Gene Analytics (GA) software, the irinotecan pharmacokinetic pathway had the highest score. Highly matching gene ontology attributions included flavone metabolic process, flavonoid glucuronidation, xenobiotic glucuronidation, nervous system development, UDP glycosyltransferase activity, retinoic acid binding, protein kinase C binding, and glucoronosyl transferase activity. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) GO terms identified neuron-associated genes as most significant (p = 5.45e-10). Consistent with the GA's output, flavone, and flavonoid associated terms, glucuronidation were noted as were GO terms associated with neurogenesis. CONCLUSION: The application of functional analyses to phenotype-associated SNP clusters provides an independent validation step in assessing the clinical meaningfulness of GWAS-derived data. Functional analyses following gene attribution of a CIPN-predictive SNP cluster identified pathways, gene ontology terms, and a network which were consistent with a neuropathic phenotype.

Identification of a SNP cluster associated with taxane-induced peripheral neuropathy risk in patients being treated for breast cancer using GWAS data derived from a large cooperative group trial.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a common toxicity of taxanes for which there is no effective intervention. Genomic CIPN risk determination has yielded promising, but inconsistent results. The present study assessed the utility of a collective SNP cluster identified using novel analytics to describe taxane-associated CIPN risk. METHODS: We analyzed GWAS data derived from ECOG-5103, first identifying SNPs that were most strongly associated with CIPN using Fisher's ratio (FR). We then ranked ordered those SNPs which discriminated CIPN-positive (CIPN +) from CIPN-negative phenotypes based on their discriminatory power and developed the cluster of SNPs which provided the highest predictive accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). RESULTS: Using aggregated genotype data obtained from the previously reported ECOG-5103 clinical trial (in which two different arrays were used, HumanOmniExpress (727,227 SNPs) and HumanOmni1-Quad1 (1,131,857 SNPs)), we identified a 267 SNP cluster which was associated with a CIPN + phenotype with an accuracy of 96.1%. CONCLUSIONS: A cluster of SNPs was identified which prospectively discriminated patients most likely to develop symptomatic CIPN following taxane exposure as part of a breast cancer chemotherapy regimen. Validation using an independent patient cohort should be performed.

Addressing Noise and Estimating Uncertainty in Biomedical Data through the Exploration of Chemical Space.

Noise is a basic ingredient in data, since observed data are always contaminated by unwanted deviations, i.e., noise, which, in the case of overdetermined systems (with more data than model parameters), cause the corresponding linear system of equations to have an imperfect solution. In addition, in the case of highly underdetermined parameterization, noise can be absorbed by the model, generating spurious solutions. This is a very undesirable situation that might lead to incorrect conclusions. We presented mathematical formalism based on the inverse problem theory combined with artificial intelligence methodologies to perform an enhanced sampling of noisy biomedical data to improve the finding of meaningful solutions. Random sampling methods fail for high-dimensional biomedical problems. Sampling methods such as smart model parameterizations, forward surrogates, and parallel computing are better suited for such problems. We applied these methods to several important biomedical problems, such as phenotype prediction and a problem related to predicting the effects of protein mutations, i.e., if a given single residue mutation is neutral or deleterious, causing a disease. We also applied these methods to de novo drug discovery and drug repositioning (repurposing) through the enhanced exploration of huge chemical space. The purpose of these novel methods that address the problem of noise and uncertainty in biomedical data is to find new therapeutic solutions, perform drug repurposing, and accelerate and optimize drug discovery, thus reestablishing homeostasis. Finding the right target, the right compound, and the right patient are the three bottlenecks to running successful clinical trials from the correct analysis of preclinical models. Artificial intelligence can provide a solution to these problems, considering that the character of the data restricts the quality of the prediction, as in any modeling procedure in data analysis. The use of simple and plain methodologies is crucial to tackling these important and challenging problems, particularly drug repositioning/repurposing in rare diseases.

Incremental prognostic value of lung ultrasound on contemporary heart failure risk scores.

Introduction: Over the last decades, several scores have been developed to aid clinicians in assessing prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF) based on clinical data, medications and, ultimately, biomarkers. Lung ultrasound (LUS) has emerged as a promising prognostic tool for patients when assessed at discharge after a HF hospitalization. We hypothesized that contemporary HF risk scores can be improved upon by the inclusion of the number of B-lines detected by LUS at discharge to predict death, urgent visit, or HF readmission at 6- month follow-up. Methods: We evaluated the discrimination improvement of adding the number of B-lines to 4 contemporary HF risk scores (Get with the Guidelines -GWTG-, MAGGIC, Redin-SCORE, and BCN Bio-HF) by comparing the change in the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), the net reclassification index (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). The population of the study was constituted by the 123 patients enrolled in the LUS-HF trial, adjusting the analyses by the intervention. Results: The AUC of the GWTG score increased from 0.682 to 0.789 (p = 0.02), resulting in a NRI of 0.608 and an IDI of 0.136 (p < 0.05). Similar results were observed when adding the number of B-lines to the MAGGIC score, with an AUC that increased from 0.705 to 0.787 (p < 0.05). This increase translated into a NRI of 0.608 and an IDI of 0.038 (p < 0.05). Regarding Redin-SCORE at 1-month and 1-year, the AUC increased from 0.714 to 0.773 and from 0.681 to 0.757, although it did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.08 and p = 0.06 respectively). Both IDI and NRI were significantly improved (0.093 and 0.509 in the 1-month score, p < 0.05; 0.056 and 0.111 in the 1-year score, p < 0.05). Lastly, the AUC for the BCN Bio-HF score increased from 0.733 to 0.772, which was statistically non-significant, with a NRI value of 0.363 (p = 0.06) and an IDI of 0.092 (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Adding the results of LUS evaluated at discharge improved the predictive value of most of the contemporary HF risk scores. As it is a simple, fast, and non-invasive test it may be recommended to assess prognosis at discharge in HF patients.

Analysis of transcriptomic responses to SARS-CoV-2 reveals plausible defective pathways responsible for increased susceptibility to infection and complications and helps to develop fast-track repositioning of drugs against COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: To understand the transcriptomic response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, is of the utmost importance to design diagnostic tools predicting the severity of the infection. METHODS: We have performed a deep sampling analysis of the viral transcriptomic data oriented towards drug repositioning. Using different samplers, the basic principle of this methodology the biological invariance, which means that the pathways altered by the disease, should be independent on the algorithm used to unravel them. RESULTS: The transcriptomic analysis of the altered pathways, reveals a distinctive inflammatory response and potential side effects of infection. The virus replication causes, in some cases, acute respiratory distress syndrome in the lungs, and affects other organs such as heart, brain, and kidneys. Therefore, the repositioned drugs to fight COVID-19 should, not only target the interferon signalling pathway and the control of the inflammation, but also the altered genetic pathways related to the side effects of infection. We also show via Principal Component Analysis that the transcriptome signatures are different from influenza and RSV. The gene COL1A1, which controls collagen production, seems to play a key/vital role in the regulation of the immune system. Additionally, other small-scale signature genes appear to be involved in the development of other COVID-19 comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Transcriptome-based drug repositioning offers possible fast-track antiviral therapy for COVID-19 patients. It calls for additional clinical studies using FDA approved drugs for patients with increased susceptibility to infection and with serious medical complications.

Innovations in Genomics and Big Data Analytics for Personalized Medicine and Health Care: A Review.

Big data in health care is a fast-growing field and a new paradigm that is transforming case-based studies to large-scale, data-driven research. As big data is dependent on the advancement of new data standards, technology, and relevant research, the future development of big data applications holds foreseeable promise in the modern day health care revolution. Enormously large, rapidly growing collections of biomedical omics-data (genomics, proteomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics, glycomics, etc.) and clinical data create major challenges and opportunities for their analysis and interpretation and open new computational gateways to address these issues. The design of new robust algorithms that are most suitable to properly analyze this big data by taking into account individual variability in genes has enabled the creation of precision (personalized) medicine. We reviewed and highlighted the significance of big data analytics for personalized medicine and health care by focusing mostly on machine learning perspectives on personalized medicine, genomic data models with respect to personalized medicine, the application of data mining algorithms for personalized medicine as well as the challenges we are facing right now in big data analytics.

A Machine Learning Model for Evaluating Imported Disease Screening Strategies in Immigrant Populations.

Given the high prevalence of imported diseases in immigrant populations, it has postulated the need to establish screening programs that allow their early diagnosis and treatment. We present a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to contribute to the design of screening programs in this population. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional screening program of imported diseases in all immigrant patients who attended the Tropical Medicine Unit between January 2009 and December 2016. We designed a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to establish the set of most discriminatory prognostic variables to predict the onset of the: HIV infection, malaria, chronic hepatitis B and C, schistosomiasis, and Chagas in immigrant population. We analyzed 759 patients. HIV was predicted with an accuracy of 84.9% and the number of screenings to detect the first HIV-infected person was 26, as in the case of Chagas disease (with a predictive accuracy of 92.9%). For the other diseases the averages were 12 screenings to detect the first case of chronic hepatitis B (85.4%), or schistosomiasis (86.9%), 23 for hepatitis C (85.6%) or malaria (93.3%), and eight for syphilis (79.4%) and strongyloidiasis (88.4%). The use of machine learning methodologies allowed the prediction of the expected disease burden and made it possible to pinpoint with greater precision those immigrants who are likely to benefit from screening programs, thus contributing effectively to their development and design.

Predictive Mathematical Models of the Short-Term and Long-Term Growth of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The prediction of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and the corresponding needs of the health care system (COVID-19 patients' admissions, the number of critically ill patients, need for intensive care units, etc.) is based on the combination of a limited growth model (Verhulst model) and a short-term predictive model that allows predictions to be made for the following day. In both cases, the uncertainty analysis of the prediction is performed, i.e., the set of equivalent models that adjust the historical data with the same accuracy. This set of models provides the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive model that adjusts the historical series. It can be extrapolated to the same analyzed time series (e.g., the number of infected individuals per day) or to another time series of interest to which it is correlated and used, e.g., to predict the number of patients admitted to urgent care units, the number of critically ill patients, or the total number of admissions, which are directly related to health needs. These models can be regionalized, that is, the predictions can be made at the local level if data are disaggregated. We show that the Verhulst and the Gompertz models provide similar results and can be also used to monitor and predict new outbreaks. However, the Verhulst model seems to be easier to interpret and to use.

Effects of climate variables on the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

An outbreak of the novel COVID-19 virus occurred during February 2020 onwards in almost all the European countries, including Spain. This study covers the correlation found between weather variables (Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Mean Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure, Daily Rainfall, Daily Sun hours) and the coronavirus propagation in Spain. A strong relationship is found when correlating the virus spread to the mean temperature, minimum temperature, and atmospheric pressure in different Spanish provinces. In this analysis we have used the ratio of the PCR COVID-19 positives with respect to the population size. A linear regression model using the mean temperature is implemented. Moreover, an analysis of variance is used to confirm the influence of mean temperature on the spread of virus. As a second measurement of the COVID-19 outbreak we have used the results of the antibodies tests carried out in Spain that provide an estimation of the heard immunity achieved. Based on this analysis, an estimation of the asymptomatic population is performed. All these results exhibit significant correlation with weather variables. The most affected provinces were Soria, Segovia and Ciudad Real, which are the coldest. On the opposite side, places such as Southern Spain, the Baleares, and Canary Islands showed a lower rate of spread. This might be related to the warmer climate and the insularity of these islands. Besides, the coastal influence and the daily sun hours might also influence the lower rates in the east and west regions in Spain. This analysis provides a deeper insight of the influence of weather variables onto the COVID-19 spread in Spain.

Sulfatase 2 Is Associated with Steroid Resistance in Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

Glucocorticoid (GC) resistance complicates the treatment of ~10-20% of children with nephrotic syndrome (NS), yet the molecular basis for resistance remains unclear. We used RNAseq analysis and in silico algorithm-based approaches on peripheral blood leukocytes from 12 children both at initial NS presentation and after ~7 weeks of GC therapy to identify a 12-gene panel able to differentiate steroid resistant NS (SRNS) from steroid-sensitive NS (SSNS). Among this panel, subsequent validation and analyses of one biologically relevant candidate, sulfatase 2 (SULF2), in up to a total of 66 children, revealed that both SULF2 leukocyte expression and plasma arylsulfatase activity Post/Pre therapy ratios were greater in SSNS vs. SRNS. However, neither plasma SULF2 endosulfatase activity (measured by VEGF binding activity) nor plasma VEGF levels, distinguished SSNS from SRNS, despite VEGF's reported role as a downstream mediator of SULF2's effects in glomeruli. Experimental studies of NS-related injury in both rat glomeruli and cultured podocytes also revealed decreased SULF2 expression, which were partially reversible by GC treatment of podocytes. These findings together suggest that SULF2 levels and activity are associated with GC resistance in NS, and that SULF2 may play a protective role in NS via the modulation of downstream mediators distinct from VEGF.

High-Dimensional Analysis of Single-Cell Flow Cytometry Data Predicts Relapse in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia.

Artificial intelligence methods may help in unveiling information that is hidden in high-dimensional oncological data. Flow cytometry studies of haematological malignancies provide quantitative data with the potential to be used for the construction of response biomarkers. Many computational methods from the bioinformatics toolbox can be applied to these data, but they have not been exploited in their full potential in leukaemias, specifically for the case of childhood B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia. In this paper, we analysed flow cytometry data that were obtained at diagnosis from 56 paediatric B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia patients from two local institutions. Our aim was to assess the prognostic potential of immunophenotypical marker expression intensity. We constructed classifiers that are based on the Fisher's Ratio to quantify differences between patients with relapsing and non-relapsing disease. We also correlated this with genetic information. The main result that arises from the data was the association between subexpression of marker CD38 and the probability of relapse.

Prevalence and prognostic impact of subclinical pulmonary congestion at discharge in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: Residual pulmonary congestion at hospital discharge can worsen the outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) and can be detected by lung ultrasound (LUS). The aim of this study was to analyse the prevalence of subclinical pulmonary congestion at discharge and its impact on prognosis in patients admitted for acute HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a post-hoc analysis of the LUS-HF trial. LUS was performed by the investigators in eight chest zones with a pocket device. Physical exam was subsequently performed by the treating physicians. Primary outcome was a combined endpoint of rehospitalization, unexpected visit for HF worsening or death at 6- month follow-up. Subclinical pulmonary congestion at discharge was defined as the presence of ≥5 B-lines in LUS in absence of rales in the auscultation employing the area under the ROC curve. At discharge, 100 patients (81%) did not show clinical signs of pulmonary congestion. Of these, 41 had ≥5 B-lines. Independent factors related with the presence of subclinical pulmonary congestion were anaemia, higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). After adjusting by propensity score analysis including age, renal insufficiency, atrial fibrillation, NYHA class, NT-proBNP levels, clinical congestion, and the trial intervention, the presence of subclinical pulmonary congestion at discharge was a risk factor for the occurrence of the primary outcome (hazard ratio 2.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-6.41; P = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Up to 40% of patients considered 'dry' according to pulmonary auscultation presents subclinical congestion at hospital discharge that can be detected by LUS and implies a worse prognosis at 6- month follow-up. Comorbidities, high values of natriuretic peptides, and higher NYHA class are the factors related with its presence.

Robust Sampling of Defective Pathways in Alzheimer's Disease. Implications in Drug Repositioning.

We present the analysis of the defective genetic pathways of the Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease (LOAD) compared to the Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Healthy Controls (HC) using different sampling methodologies. These algorithms sample the uncertainty space that is intrinsic to any kind of highly underdetermined phenotype prediction problem, by looking for the minimum-scale signatures (header genes) corresponding to different random holdouts. The biological pathways can be identified performing posterior analysis of these signatures established via cross-validation holdouts and plugging the set of most frequently sampled genes into different ontological platforms. That way, the effect of helper genes, whose presence might be due to the high degree of under determinacy of these experiments and data noise, is reduced. Our results suggest that common pathways for Alzheimer's disease and MCI are mainly related to viral mRNA translation, influenza viral RNA transcription and replication, gene expression, mitochondrial translation, and metabolism, with these results being highly consistent regardless of the comparative methods. The cross-validated predictive accuracies achieved for the LOAD and MCI discriminations were 84% and 81.5%, respectively. The difference between LOAD and MCI could not be clearly established (74% accuracy). The most discriminatory genes of the LOAD-MCI discrimination are associated with proteasome mediated degradation and G-protein signaling. Based on these findings we have also performed drug repositioning using Dr. Insight package, proposing the following different typologies of drugs: isoquinoline alkaloids, antitumor antibiotics, phosphoinositide 3-kinase PI3K, autophagy inhibitors, antagonists of the muscarinic acetylcholine receptor and histone deacetylase inhibitors. We believe that the potential clinical relevance of these findings should be further investigated and confirmed with other independent studies.

Prediction of Protein Tertiary Structure via Regularized Template Classification Techniques.

We discuss the use of the regularized linear discriminant analysis (LDA) as a model reduction technique combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) in protein tertiary structure prediction, followed by structure refinement based on singular value decomposition (SVD) and PSO. The algorithm presented in this paper corresponds to the category of template-based modeling. The algorithm performs a preselection of protein templates before constructing a lower dimensional subspace via a regularized LDA. The protein coordinates in the reduced spaced are sampled using a highly explorative optimization algorithm, regressive-regressive PSO (RR-PSO). The obtained structure is then projected onto a reduced space via singular value decomposition and further optimized via RR-PSO to carry out a structure refinement. The final structures are similar to those predicted by best structure prediction tools, such as Rossetta and Zhang servers. The main advantage of our methodology is that alleviates the ill-posed character of protein structure prediction problems related to high dimensional optimization. It is also capable of sampling a wide range of conformational space due to the application of a regularized linear discriminant analysis, which allows us to expand the differences over a reduced basis set.

On the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Genomics to Enhance Precision Medicine.

The complexity of orphan diseases, which are those that do not have an effective treatment, together with the high dimensionality of the genetic data used for their analysis and the high degree of uncertainty in the understanding of the mechanisms and genetic pathways which are involved in their development, motivate the use of advanced techniques of artificial intelligence and in-depth knowledge of molecular biology, which is crucial in order to find plausible solutions in drug design, including drug repositioning. Particularly, we show that the use of robust deep sampling methodologies of the altered genetics serves to obtain meaningful results and dramatically decreases the cost of research and development in drug design, influencing very positively the use of precision medicine and the outcomes in patients. The target-centric approach and the use of strong prior hypotheses that are not matched against reality (disease genetic data) are undoubtedly the cause of the high number of drug design failures and attrition rates. Sampling and prediction under uncertain conditions cannot be avoided in the development of precision medicine.

Robust pathway sampling in phenotype prediction. Application to triple negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Phenotype prediction problems are usually considered ill-posed, as the amount of samples is very limited with respect to the scrutinized genetic probes. This fact complicates the sampling of the defective genetic pathways due to the high number of possible discriminatory genetic networks involved. In this research, we outline three novel sampling algorithms utilized to identify, classify and characterize the defective pathways in phenotype prediction problems, such as the Fisher's ratio sampler, the Holdout sampler and the Random sampler, and apply each one to the analysis of genetic pathways involved in tumor behavior and outcomes of triple negative breast cancers (TNBC). Altered biological pathways are identified using the most frequently sampled genes and are compared to those obtained via Bayesian Networks (BNs). RESULTS: Random, Fisher's ratio and Holdout samplers were more accurate and robust than BNs, while providing comparable insights about disease genomics. CONCLUSIONS: The three samplers tested are good alternatives to Bayesian Networks since they are less computationally demanding algorithms. Importantly, this analysis confirms the concept of "biological invariance" since the altered pathways should be independent of the sampling methodology and the classifier used for their inference. Nevertheless, still some modifications are needed in the Bayesian networks to be able to sample correctly the uncertainty space in phenotype prediction problems, since the probabilistic parameterization of the uncertainty space is not unique and the use of the optimum network might falsify the pathways analysis.

External validation and comparison of the CardShock and IABP-SHOCK II risk scores in real-world cardiogenic shock patients.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiogenic shock remains high and early recognition and risk stratification are mandatory for optimal patient allocation and to guide treatment strategy. The CardShock and the Intra-Aortic Balloon Counterpulsation in Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock (IABP-SHOCK II) risk scores have shown good results in predicting short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock. However, to date, they have not been compared in a large cohort of ischaemic and non-ischaemic real-world cardiogenic shock patients. METHODS: The Red-Shock is a multicentre cohort of non-selected cardiogenic shock patients. We calculated the CardShock and IABP-SHOCK II risk scores in each patient and assessed discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 696 patients. The main cause of cardiogenic shock was acute coronary syndrome, occurring in 62% of the patients. Compared with acute coronary syndrome patients, non-acute coronary syndrome patients were younger and had a lower proportion of risk factors but higher rates of renal insufficiency; intra-aortic balloon pump was also less frequently used (31% vs 56%). In contrast, non-acute coronary syndrome patients were more often treated with mechanical circulatory support devices (11% vs 3%, p<0.001 for both). Both risk scores were good predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients and had similar areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (area under the curve: 0.742 for the CardShock vs 0.752 for IABP-SHOCK II, p=0.65). Their discrimination performance was only modest when applied to non-acute coronary syndrome patients (0.648 vs 0.619, respectively, p=0.31). Calibration was acceptable for both scores (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.22 for the CardShock and 0.68 for IABP-SHOCK II). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, both the CardShock and the IABP-SHOCK II risk scores were good predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome-related cardiogenic shock.

External validation and comparison of the CardShock and IABP-SHOCK II risk scores in real-world cardiogenic shock patients.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiogenic shock remains high and early recognition and risk stratification are mandatory for optimal patient allocation and to guide treatment strategy. The CardShock and the Intra-Aortic Balloon Counterpulsation in Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock (IABP-SHOCK II) risk scores have shown good results in predicting short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock. However, to date, they have not been compared in a large cohort of ischaemic and non-ischaemic real-world cardiogenic shock patients. METHODS: The Red-Shock is a multicentre cohort of non-selected cardiogenic shock patients. We calculated the CardShock and IABP-SHOCK II risk scores in each patient and assessed discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 696 patients. The main cause of cardiogenic shock was acute coronary syndrome, occurring in 62% of the patients. Compared with acute coronary syndrome patients, non-acute coronary syndrome patients were younger and had a lower proportion of risk factors but higher rates of renal insufficiency; intra-aortic balloon pump was also less frequently used (31% vs 56%). In contrast, non-acute coronary syndrome patients were more often treated with mechanical circulatory support devices (11% vs 3%, p<0.001 for both). Both risk scores were good predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients and had similar areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (area under the curve: 0.742 for the CardShock vs 0.752 for IABP-SHOCK II, p=0.65). Their discrimination performance was only modest when applied to non-acute coronary syndrome patients (0.648 vs 0.619, respectively, p=0.31). Calibration was acceptable for both scores (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.22 for the CardShock and 0.68 for IABP-SHOCK II). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, both the CardShock and the IABP-SHOCK II risk scores were good predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome-related cardiogenic shock.