Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage.

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models.

Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.

Habitat-based biodiversity assessment for ecosystem accounting in the Murray-Darling Basin.

Understanding how biodiversity is changing over space and time is crucial for well-informed decisions that help retain Earth's biological heritage over the long term. Tracking changes in biodiversity through ecosystem accounting provides this important information in a systematic way and readily enables linking to other relevant environmental and economic data to provide an integrated perspective. We derived biodiversity accounts for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia's largest catchment. We assessed biodiversity change from 2010 to 2015 for all vascular plants, all waterbirds, and 10 focal species. We applied a scalable habitat-based assessment approach that combined expected patterns in the distribution of biodiversity from spatial biodiversity models with a time series of spatially complete data on habitat condition derived from remote sensing. Changes in biodiversity from 2010 to 2015 varied across regions and biodiversity features. For the entire Murray-Darling Basin, the expected persistence of vascular plants increased slightly from 2010 to 2015 (from 86.8% to 87.1%), mean species richness of waterbirds decreased slightly (from 12.5 to 12.3 species), whereas for the focal species the estimated area of habitat increased for 8 species and decreased for 1 species. Regions in the north of the Murray-Darling Basin generally had decreases in biodiversity from 2010 to 2015, whereas in the south biodiversity was stable or increased. Our results demonstrate the benefits of habitat-based biodiversity assessments in providing fully scalable biodiversity accounts across different biodiversity features, consistent with the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) framework.

Evaluación de la Biodiversidad con base en el Hábitat para la Contabilización de Ecosistemas en la Cuenca Murray-Darling Resumen El conocimiento sobre cómo está cambiando la biodiversidad en el tiempo y en el espacio es crucial para las decisiones bien informadas que ayudan a retener la herencia biológica de la Tierra a largo plazo. El seguimiento de cambios en la biodiversidad mediante la contabilidad de los ecosistemas proporciona esta información importante de manera sistémica y permite fácilmente la conexión con otros datos ambientales y económicos relevantes para proporcionar una perspectiva integrada. Derivamos la contabilidad de la biodiversidad para la Cuenca Murray-Darling, la mayor cuenca de Australia. Analizamos los cambios en la biodiversidad entre 2010 y 2015 de todas las plantas vasculares, todas las aves acuáticas y diez especies focales. Aplicamos una estrategia de evaluación basada en el hábitat que combinó los patrones esperados en la distribución de la biodiversidad a partir de modelos espaciales de la biodiversidad con una serie temporal de datos espacialmente completos derivados de la teledetección de la condición del hábitat. Los cambios en la biodiversidad entre 2010 y 2015 variaron entre las regiones y las características de la biodiversidad. Para toda la Cuenca Murray-Darling, la persistencia esperada de las plantas vasculares incrementó ligeramente durante los años de estudio (de 86.8% a 87.1%), la riqueza promedio de especies de aves acuáticas disminuyó un poco (de 12.5 a 12.3 especies), mientras que el área estimada del hábitat de las especies focales incrementó para ocho especies y disminuyó para una. Las regiones al norte de la cuenca tuvieron disminuciones generalizadas de la biodiversidad entre 2010 y 2015, mientras al sur, la biodiversidad se mantuvo estable o incrementó. Nuestros resultados demuestran los beneficios que tienen las evaluaciones de la biodiversidad basadas en el hábitat para proporcionar una contabilidad de la biodiversidad completamente escalable entre las diferentes características de la biodiversidad, acorde con la estructura del Sistema de Contabilidad Económico-Ambiental - Contabilidad de los Ecosistemas (SEEA EA) de las Naciones Unidas.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012.

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity-rather than of particular taxa-at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries' rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs.

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.

Alineamiento entre los Indicadores de Biodiversidad y los Requerimientos Políticos Resumen En la escala global, los indicadores de biodiversidad se usan comúnmente para monitorear las tendencias generales pero rara vez se implementan con un propósito específico o vinculados directamente con la toma de decisiones. Algunos indicadores son mejores para predecir los cambios futuros, mientras que otros son más apropiados para la evaluación de acciones pasadas, aunque lo anterior casi nunca se comunica explícitamente. Desarrollamos un modelo conceptual para la atribución de indicadores de biodiversidad a funciones apropiadas con base en una estrategia común que se usa en la economía. Con este modelo, los indicadores pueden clasificarse como principales (indicadores que cambian antes que el sujeto de interés, orientando así las acciones preventivas), coincidentes (indicadores que miden al sujeto de interés) o rezagados (indicadores que cambian después de que el sujeto de interés ha cambiado y por lo tanto puede usarse para evaluar las acciones pasadas). Clasificamos los indicadores con base en la teoría ecológica sobre los tiempos de respuesta de la biodiversidad y los objetivos de manejo en dos estudios de caso: la extinción mundial de especies y el colapso de los ecosistemas marinos. Para la extinción mundial de especies, los indicadores de abundancia (p. ej.: el Índice del Planeta Viviente o el índice de biodiversidad intacta) fueron los más probables en tener una respuesta pronta como indicadores principales que orientan las acciones preventivas, mientras que se esperó que los indicadores de extinción tuvieran respuestas lentas, por lo que actuarían como indicadores rezagados que disminuyeron la necesidad de evaluación. Para el colapso de los ecosistemas marinos, se anticipó que los indicadores de las respuestas directas a la pesca fueran los indicadores principales, mientras que aquellos que miden el colapso del ecosistema podrían ser indicadores rezagados. La clasificación define un papel activo para los indicadores dentro del ciclo de políticas, crea un vínculo explícito con la toma de decisiones preventivas y respalda la acción preventiva.

Reference state and benchmark concepts for better biodiversity conservation in contemporary ecosystems.

Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions are challenging to quantify, may be difficult to falsify, and may no longer be an attainable target in a contemporary ecosystem. We have constructed a conceptual framework to help inform thinking and discussion around the philosophical underpinnings of reference states and guide their application. We characterize currently recognized historical reference states and describe them as Pre-Human, Indigenous Cultural, Pre-Intensification and Hybrid-Historical. We extend the conceptual framework to include contemporary reference states as an alternative theoretical perspective. The contemporary reference state framework is a major conceptual shift that focuses on current ecological patterns and identifies areas with higher biodiversity values relative to other locations within the same ecosystem, regardless of the disturbance history. We acknowledge that past processes play an essential role in driving contemporary patterns of diversity. The specific context for which we design the contemporary conceptual frame is underpinned by an overarching goal-to maximize biodiversity conservation and restoration outcomes in existing ecosystems. The contemporary reference state framework can account for the inherent differences in the diversity of biodiversity values (e.g. native species richness, habitat complexity) across spatial scales, communities and ecosystems. In contrast to historical reference states, contemporary references states are measurable and falsifiable. This 'road map of reference states' offers perspective needed to define and assess the status and trends in biodiversity and habitats. We demonstrate the contemporary reference state concept with an example from south-eastern Australia. Our framework provides a tractable way for policy-makers and practitioners to navigate biodiversity assessments to maximize conservation and restoration outcomes in contemporary ecosystems.

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.

Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services / Capacitando profissionais para o desenvolvimento de cenários e modelos em biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos

Abstract: Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy- and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Resumo: Atividades antropogênicas extensas, impulsionadas pela demanda por produtos da agricultura e da silvicultura, têm levado a reduções dramáticas na biodiversidade mundial e a mudanças significativas no provimento de serviços ecossistêmicos. Estas tendências devem continuar no futuro, pois o mundo continua a se desenvolver sem muita consideração pelo papel que a natureza desempenha em sustentar a subsistência humana. Cenários e modelos são ferramentas importantes para ajudar os tomadores de decisão a preverem o impacto de suas decisões, auxiliando na definição das melhores opções para políticas de conservação e uso sustentável; portanto o aumento da capacidade para o desenvolvimento de modelos e cenários é de suma importância. Entretanto, ainda são raros os cursos de pós-graduação que foquem na capacitação de profissionais para o desenvolvimento de modelos e cenários em biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos. Neste trabalho apresentamos a experiência da Escola São Paulo de Ciências Avançadas de Cenários e Modelagem em Biodiversidade e Serviços Ecossistêmicos para Apoiar o Bem-Estar Humano (SPSAS Scenarios). Adicionalmente, apresentamos neste Número Especial da Biota Neotropica os resultados dos exercícios de modelagem e cenários desenvolvidos no decorrer da SPSAS Scenarios. No total, as atividades realizadas durante o SPSAS Scenarios resultaram em nove estudos de caso. Estes se concentraram em uma diversidade de ecossistemas, nos atuais drivers de mudança e as respectivas tendências, bem como nas alternativas de desenvolvimento visando cenários mais positivos propostos recentemente no contexto da Framework Futuros para Natureza da Plataforma Intergovernamental de Biodiversidade e Serviços Ecossistêmicos (IPBES). Enfatizamos aqui a necessidade de acelerar a capacitação de profissionais que trabalhem com cenários e modelagem de forma a preencher algumas lacunas existentes na produção de cenários e modelos relevantes para a tomada de decisão em biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity.

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity1, as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind2-4. Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems5,6 and the extinction of species that comprise them7,8 are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilderness areas have in mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Here we model the persistence probability of biodiversity, combining habitat condition with spatial variation in species composition, to show that retaining these remaining wilderness areas is essential for the international conservation agenda. Wilderness areas act as a buffer against species loss, as the extinction risk for species within wilderness communities is-on average-less than half that of species in non-wilderness communities. Although all wilderness areas have an intrinsic conservation value9,10, we identify the areas on every continent that make the highest relative contribution to the persistence of biodiversity. Alarmingly, these areas-in which habitat loss would have a more-marked effect on biodiversity-are poorly protected. Given globally high rates of wilderness loss10, these areas urgently require targeted protection to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity, alongside efforts to protect and restore more-degraded environments.

Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species-area relationship, to estimate the effect of land-use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land-use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio-economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre-2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land-use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7-4.5 times compared to land-use-only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land-use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre-industrial times is observed.

Essential biodiversity variables for mapping and monitoring species populations.

Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve such an integration and conceptualize 'essential biodiversity variables' (EBVs) for a unified global capture of species populations in space and time. The inherent heterogeneity and sparseness of raw biodiversity data are overcome by the use of models and remotely sensed covariates to inform predictions that are contiguous in space and time and global in extent. We define the species population EBVs as a space-time-species-gram (cube) that simultaneously addresses the distribution or abundance of multiple species, with its resolution adjusted to represent available evidence and acceptable levels of uncertainty. This essential information enables the monitoring of single or aggregate spatial or taxonomic units at scales relevant to research and decision-making. When combined with ancillary environmental or species data, this fundamental species population information directly underpins a range of biodiversity and ecosystem function indicators. The unified concept we present links disparate data to downstream uses and informs a vision for species population monitoring in which data collection is closely integrated with models and infrastructure to support effective biodiversity assessment.

Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World.

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.