Gaussian process regression coupled with mRMR to predict adulterant concentration in cocaine.

Street cocaine is often mixed with various substances that intensify its harmful effects. This paper proposes a framework to identify attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) intervals that best predict the concentration of adulterants in cocaine samples. Wavelengths are ranked according to their relevance through ReliefF and mRMR feature selection approaches, and an iterative process removes less relevant wavelengths based on the ranking suggested by each approach. Gaussian Process (GP) regression models are constructed after each wavelength removal and the prediction performance is evaluated using RMSE. The subset balancing a low RMSE value and a small percentage of retained wavelengths is chosen. The proposed framework was validated using a dataset consisting of 345 samples of cocaine with different amounts of levamisole, caffeine, phenacetin, and lidocaine. Averaged over the four adulterants, the GP regression coupled with the mRMR retained 1.07 % of the 662 original wavelengths, outperforming PLS and SVR regarding prediction performance.

Interval importance index to select relevant ATR-FTIR wavenumber Intervals for falsified drug classification.

The commerce of falsified drugs has substantially grown in recent years due to facilitated access to technologies needed for copying authentic pharmaceutical products. Attenuated Total Reflectance coupled with Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy has been successfully employed as an analytical tool to identify falsified products and support legal agents in interrupting illegal operations. ATR-FTIR spectroscopy typically yields datasets comprised of hundreds of highly correlated wavenumbers, which may compromise the performance of classical multivariate techniques used for sample classification. In this paper we propose a new wavenumber interval selection method aimed at selecting regions of spectra that best discriminate samples of seized drugs into two classes, authentic or falsified. The discriminative power of spectra regions is represented by an Interval Importance Index (III) based on the Two-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic, which is a novel proposition of this paper. The III guides an iterative forward approach for wavenumber selection; different data mining techniques are used for sample classification. In 100 replications using the best combination of classification technique and wavenumber intervals, we obtained average 99.87% accurate classifications on a Cialis® dataset, while retaining 12.5% of the authentic wavenumbers, and average 99.43% accurate classifications on a Viagra® dataset, while retaining 23.75% of the authentic wavenumbers. Our proposition was compared with alternative approaches for individual and interval wavenumber selection available in the literature, always leading to more consistent and easier to interpret results.

Wavenumber selection method to determine the concentration of cocaine and adulterants in cocaine samples.

Street cocaine is typically altered with several compounds that increase its harmful health-related side effects, most notably depression, convulsions, and severe damages to the cardiovascular system, lungs, and brain. Thus, determining the concentration of cocaine and adulterants in seized drug samples is important from both health and forensic perspectives. Although FTIR has been widely used to identify the fingerprint and concentration of chemical compounds, spectroscopy datasets are usually comprised of thousands of highly correlated wavenumbers which, when used as predictors in regression models, tend to undermine the predictive performance of multivariate techniques. In this paper, we propose an FTIR wavenumber selection method aimed at identifying FTIR spectra intervals that best predict the concentration of cocaine and adulterants (e.g. caffeine, phenacetin, levamisole, and lidocaine) in cocaine samples. For that matter, the Mutual Information measure is integrated into a Quadratic Programming problem with the objective of minimizing the probability of retaining redundant wavenumbers, while maximizing the relationship between retained wavenumbers and compounds' concentrations. Optimization outputs guide the order of inclusion of wavenumbers in a predictive model, using a forward-based wavenumber selection method. After the inclusion of each wavenumber, parameters of three alternative regression models are estimated, and each model's prediction error is assessed through the Mean Average Error (MAE) measure; the recommended subset of retained wavenumbers is the one that minimizes the prediction error with maximum parsimony. Using our propositions in a dataset of 115 cocaine samples we obtained a best prediction model with average MAE of 0.0502 while retaining only 2.29% of the original wavenumbers, increasing the predictive precision by 0.0359 when compared to a model using the complete set of wavenumbers as predictors.

Simulating the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department without being seen by a physician: a cellular automaton and agent-based framework.

The objective of this study was to develop an agent based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department (ED) without being seen (LWBS). In doing so, the study complements computer modeling and cellular automata (CA) techniques to simulate the behavior of patients in an ED. After verifying and validating the model by comparing it with data from a real case study, the significance of four preventive policies including increasing number of triage nurses, fast-track treatment, increasing the waiting room capacity and reducing treatment time were investigated by utilizing ordinary least squares regression. After applying the preventing policies in ED, an average of 42.14% reduction in the number of patients who leave without being seen and 6.05% reduction in the average length of stay (LOS) of patients was reported. This study is the first to apply CA in an ED simulation. Comparing the average LOS before and after applying CA with actual times from emergency department information system showed an 11% improvement. The simulation results indicated that the most effective approach to reduce the rate of LWBS is applying fast-track treatment. The ABM approach represents a flexible tool that can be constructed to reflect any given environment. It is also a support system for decision-makers to assess the relative impact of control strategies.