Modeling Patient No-Show History and Predicting Future Outpatient Appointment Behavior in the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: Missed appointments reduce the efficiency of the health care system and negatively impact access to care for all patients. Identifying patients at risk for missing an appointment could help health care systems and providers better target interventions to reduce patient no-shows. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to develop and test a predictive model that identifies patients that have a high probability of missing their outpatient appointments. METHODS: Demographic information, appointment characteristics, and attendance history were drawn from the existing data sets from four Veterans Affairs health care facilities within six separate service areas. Past attendance behavior was modeled using an empirical Markov model based on up to 10 previous appointments. Using logistic regression, we developed 24 unique predictive models. We implemented the models and tested an intervention strategy using live reminder calls placed 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead of time. The pilot study targeted 1,754 high-risk patients, whose probability of missing an appointment was predicted to be at least 0.2. RESULTS: Our results indicate that three variables were consistently related to a patient's no-show probability in all 24 models: past attendance behavior, the age of the appointment, and having multiple appointments scheduled on that day. After the intervention was implemented, the no-show rate in the pilot group was reduced from the expected value of 35% to 12.16% (p value < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model accurately identified patients who were more likely to miss their appointments. Applying the model in practice enables clinics to apply more intensive intervention measures to high-risk patients.

Large-Scale No-Show Patterns and Distributions for Clinic Operational Research.

Patient no-shows for scheduled primary care appointments are common. Unused appointment slots reduce patient quality of care, access to services and provider productivity while increasing loss to follow-up and medical costs. This paper describes patterns of no-show variation by patient age, gender, appointment age, and type of appointment request for six individual service lines in the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA). This retrospective observational descriptive project examined 25,050,479 VHA appointments contained in individual-level records for eight years (FY07-FY14) for 555,183 patients. Multifactor analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, with no-show rate as the dependent variable, and gender, age group, appointment age, new patient status, and service line as factors. The analyses revealed that males had higher no-show rates than females to age 65, at which point males and females exhibited similar rates. The average no-show rates decreased with age until 75-79, whereupon rates increased. As appointment age increased, males and new patients had increasing no-show rates. Younger patients are especially prone to no-show as appointment age increases. These findings provide novel information to healthcare practitioners and management scientists to more accurately characterize no-show and attendance rates and the impact of certain patient factors. Future general population data could determine whether findings from VHA data generalize to others.