Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.

Lifestyle Differences in the Metabolic Comorbidity Score of Adult Population From South Asian Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction: Metabolic comorbidities are involved in the development and progression of noncommunicable diseases. There is convincing evidence that lifestyles are important contributors to metabolic comorbidities. This study measured the metabolic comorbidity score of South Asian adults and identified its relationship with lifestyles. Methods: The authors studied 5 South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, using the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease risk factor surveillance data between 2014 and 2019. This was a nationally representative and cross-sectional survey on participants aged 15-69 years. The sample size was 27,616. The outcome was metabolic comorbidity score, calculated on the basis of total cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, blood pressure, and abdominal obesity. Total metabolic comorbidity score of each participant varied between 0 and 8. It was then divided into 3 ranges: the lowest range (total metabolic comorbidity score <3), medium range (total metabolic comorbidity score ≥3 and ≤5), and the highest range (total metabolic comorbidity score ≥6). On the basis of the outcome of nonparametric receiver operating characteristics analysis, the medium and the highest ranges together were considered as higher metabolic comorbidity score. The lowest range was considered as lower metabolic comorbidity score. The higher metabolic comorbidity score was coded as 1, and the lower metabolic comorbidity score was coded as 0. Thus, the outcome variable, metabolic comorbidity score, became a binary variable. Exposures included physical inactivity (<150 minutes of medium-to-vigorous physical activity/week), high daily sedentary time (≥9 hours/day), use of tobacco (present or past smoking or daily use of smokeless tobacco products), and consumption of alcohol (at least once per month in the last 1 year). Binomial logistic regression model produced the OR with corresponding 95% CIs. Results: The prevalence of higher metabolic comorbidity score was 34% among South Asian adults, 25% among the male respondents, and 41% among the female respondents. Participants who were physically inactive (OR=1.26; 95% CI= 1.17, 1.36), had high sedentary time (OR=1.24; 95% CI=1.11, 1.33), and consumed alcohol (OR=1.40; 95% CI=1.23, 1.53) showed higher metabolic comorbidity score than participants who were physically active, had low sedentary time, and did not consume alcohol respectively. However, the authors found an inverse association (OR=0.75; 95% CI=0.71, 0.81) between the use of tobacco and metabolic comorbidity score. Conclusions: One third of South Asian adults had higher metabolic comorbidity score. Physical inactivity, daily sedentary hours, and minimal alcohol consumption were associated with higher metabolic comorbidity score.

Short-term associations of diarrhoeal diseases in children with temperature and precipitation in seven low- and middle-income countries from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause a heavy burden in developing countries. Although studies have described the seasonality of diarrhoeal diseases, the association of weather variables with diarrhoeal diseases has not been well characterized in resource-limited settings where the burden remains high. We examined short-term associations between ambient temperature, precipitation and hospital visits due to diarrhoea among children in seven low- and middle-income countries. METHODOLOGY: Hospital visits due to diarrhoeal diseases under 5 years old were collected from seven sites in The Gambia, Mali, Mozambique, Kenya, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan via the Global Enteric Multicenter Study from December 2007 to March 2011. Daily weather data during the same period were downloaded from the ERA5-Land. We fitted time-series regression models to examine the relationships of daily diarrhoea cases with daily ambient temperature and precipitation. Then, we used meta-analytic tools to examine the heterogeneity between the site-specific estimates. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The cumulative relative risk (RR) of diarrhoea for temperature exposure (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.24 to 8.07, with Mozambique and Bangladesh showing positive associations, while Mali and Pakistan showed negative associations. The RR for precipitation (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.77 to 1.55, with Mali and India showing positive associations, while the only negative association was observed in Pakistan. Meta-analysis showed substantial heterogeneity in the association between temperature-diarrhoea and precipitation-diarrhoea across sites, with I2 of 84.2% and 67.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Child diarrhoea and weather factors have diverse and complex associations across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Diarrhoeal surveillance system settings should be conceptualized based on the observed pattern of climate change in these locations.

Characterizing the seasonal influenza disease burden attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modelling study in Japan, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature and humidity are established environmental stressors with regard to influenza infections; however, mapping disease burden is difficult owing to the complexities of the underlying associations and differences in vulnerable population distributions. In this study, we aimed to quantify the burden of influenza attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity in Japan considering geographical differences in vulnerability. METHODS: The exposure-lag-response relationships between influenza incidence, ambient temperature, and absolute humidity in all 47 Japanese prefectures for 2000-2019 were quantified using a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture; the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mixed-effects meta-regression model to derive nationwide average associations. Association between prefecture-specific indicators and the risk were also examined. Attributable risks were estimated for non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity according to the exposure-lag-response relationships obtained before. RESULTS: A total of 25,596,525 influenza cases were reported during the study period. Cold and dry conditions significantly increased influenza incidence risk. Compared with the minimum incidence weekly mean ambient temperature (29.8 °C) and the minimum incidence weekly mean absolute humidity (20.2 g/m3), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) of influenza in cold (2.5 °C) and dry (3.6 g/m3) conditions were 2.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78-4.37) and 3.20 (95% CI: 2.37-4.31), respectively. The higher RRs for cold and dry conditions were associated with geographical and climatic indicators corresponding to the central and northern prefectures; demographic, socioeconomic, and health resources indicators showed no clear trends. Finally, 27.25% (95% empirical CI [eCI]: 5.54-36.35) and 32.35% (95% eCI: 22.39-37.87) of all cases were attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity (6,976,300 [95% eCI: 1,420,068-9,306,128] and 8,280,981 [95% eCI: 8,280,981-9,693,532] cases), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings could help identify the most vulnerable populations in Japan and design adaptation policies to reduce the attributable burden of influenza due to climate variability.

Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality: a pooled analysis of 380 urban areas over a 22-year period.

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality effect estimates over time. METHODS: We extracted cause-specific mortality and air pollution data collected between 1995 and 2016 from the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network database. We applied a two-stage approach to analyse the short-term effects of NO2, PM10, and PM2·5 on cause-specific mortality using city-specific time series regression analyses and multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed changes over time using a longitudinal meta-regression with time as a linear fixed term and explored potential sources of heterogeneity and two-pollutant models. FINDINGS: Over 21·6 million cardiovascular and 7·7 million respiratory deaths in 380 cities across 24 countries over the study period were included in the analysis. All three air pollutants showed decreasing concentrations over time. The pooled results suggested no significant temporal change in the effect estimates per unit exposure of PM10, PM2·5, or NO2 and mortality. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased from 0·37% (95% CI -0·05 to 0·80) in 1998 to 0·85% (0·55 to 1·16) in 2012 with a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2·5. Two-pollutant models generally showed similar results to single-pollutant models for PM fractions and indicated temporal differences for NO2. INTERPRETATION: Although air pollution levels decreased during the study period, the effect sizes per unit increase in air pollution concentration have not changed. This observation might be due to the composition, toxicity, and sources of air pollution, as well as other factors, such as socioeconomic determinants or changes in population distribution and susceptibility. FUNDING: None.

Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study.

Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults. Results: We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages. Conclusions: There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.

Progress and scenario-based projections of health service availability and coverage towards UHC in the post-conflict and post-pandemic Iraq: a Bayesian hierarchical regression approach.

BACKGROUND: Two decades have passed since the beginning of the Iraq War in 2003. Iraq has long suffered from conflicts and instability, where the people have limited access to healthcare. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic brought additional disruption to health service provision. OBJECTIVES: At the midpoint towards universal health coverage (UHC) in 2030, this study aims to gain a better understanding of the trends of UHC progress in Iraq in the context of the conflicts and the COVID-19 pandemic and to indicate possible pragmatic options. DESIGN: This study employed Bayesian hierarchical regression models to estimate trends and projections of health service availability and coverage indicators up to 2030. Furthermore, for health service coverage, four scenarios were defined based on the availability of health services, and projections were made for each scenario up to 2030. SETTING: Our approach used the yearly data from the Ministry of Health and four nationally representative household surveys between 2000 and 2020. We evaluated the subnational-level progress in three health service availability indicators and 13 health service coverage indicators in 18 governorates in Iraq from 2000 to 2030. RESULTS: The findings from 2000 to 2020 revealed a lack of progress in the indicators of health facility and inpatient bed, and pronounced detrimental effects from major conflicts and the pandemic on all measured health service coverage indicators. Despite these setbacks, several health service coverage indicators demonstrated resilience and elasticity in their recovery. The projected trends for 2021 to 2030 indicated limited alternations in the health service availability. By 2030, five health service coverage indicators will achieve the designated 80% targets. A scenario-based analysis predicts improved coverage of antenatal care, and child immunisation and treatment if health service availability is bolstered to globally recommended standards. Under this scenario, several governorates-Anbar, Baghdad, Nainawa, Qadissiyah, Salahaddin, Thiqar and Wasit-presented improved health service coverage in more indicators. CONCLUSION: Strengthened health service availability has the potential to significantly improve fragile health service coverage indicators and in more vulnerable governorates.

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality.

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.

Short-term associations of PM10 attributed to biomass burning with respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions in Peninsular Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Biomass burning (BB) is a major source of air pollution and particulate matter (PM) in Southeast Asia. However, the health effects of PM smaller than 10 µm (PM10) originating from BB may differ from those of other sources. This study aimed to estimate the short-term association of PM10 from BB with respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions in Peninsular Malaysia, a region often exposed to BB events. METHODS: We obtained and analyzed daily data on hospital admissions, PM10 levels and BB days from five districts from 2005 to 2015. We identified BB days by evaluating the BB hotspots and backward wind trajectories. We estimated PM10 attributable to BB from the excess of the moving average of PM10 during days without BB hotspots. We fitted time-series quasi-Poisson regression models for each district and pooled them using meta-analyses. We adjusted for potential confounders and examined the lagged effects up to 3 days, and potential effect modification by age and sex. RESULTS: We analyzed 210 960 respiratory and 178 952 cardiovascular admissions. Almost 50% of days were identified as BB days, with a mean PM10 level of 53.1 µg/m3 during BB days and 40.1 µg/m3 during normal days. A 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 from BB was associated with a 0.44% (95% CI: 0.06, 0.82%) increase in respiratory admissions at lag 0-1, with a stronger association in adults aged 15-64 years and females. We did not see any significant associations for cardiovascular admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that short-term exposure to PM10 from BB increased the risk of respiratory hospitalizations in Peninsular Malaysia.

Factors influencing parental COVID-19 vaccination willingness for children in Japan.

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the factors influencing parental willingness in COVID-19 vaccination for children in Japan in light of the introduction of pediatric vaccines. Methods: An online survey was conducted in February 2022, coinciding with the imminent start of pediatric COVID-19 vaccinations in Japan. It assessed attitudes toward vaccine uptake and included questions about health-related attributes, psychological considerations, and sources of COVID-19 information. Data from 2,419 respondents who had children under the age of 12 were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with parental willingness towards COVID-19 vaccination for children. The outcomes were "agree" (in favor of vaccination), "not sure" (undecided), with "disagree" (against vaccination) as the reference category. Results: Among participants supportive of vaccination ("agree" compared to the "disagree" reference), salient determinants included: gender (Men in reference to women: odds ratio [OR] 1.54; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.15), highest educational level (Junior College/Vocational in reference to under high school: OR 0.61; 95 % CI 0.40-0.93, Bachelor's /Master's/Doctoral degree in reference to under high school: OR 0.59; 95 % CI 0.42-0.84), perception of benefits of COVID-19 vaccination (Significant in reference to Insignificant: OR 2.04; 95 % CI 1.26-3.28), perception of risks of COVID-19 vaccination (Significant in reference to Insignificant: OR 0.28; 95 % CI 0.19-0.42, Neutral in reference to Insignificant: OR 0.48; 95 % CI 0.33-0.71), the number of referenced information sources utilized for COVID-19 was associated with attitudes towards children's vaccination (OR 1.02; 95 % CI 1.00-1.04). Conclusion: The study highlights the multifaceted factors influencing parents' COVID-19 vaccination attitudes for their children, encompassing socioeconomic, health, psychological, and informational aspects. Factors like cautious information gathering, vaccine concerns and diverse referenced information sources impact willingness. To facilitate informed decision-making, essential measures include government risk communication, widespread vaccine information dissemination, and enhancing parents' health information accessibility and evaluation skills are important.

Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study.

Background: Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions. Methods: Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone. Results: In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = -0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates. Conclusions: Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.

Compilation of open access time-series datasets for studying temperature-mortality association.

In this article, we present a comprehensive compilation of open access daily time-series datasets tailored to assess the temperature-mortality association. The data consists of daily mortality counts and average ambient temperature at various levels of geographic aggregation, including data from four cities, ten regions, and two counties, which have been utilised in previously published studies. These datasets are applicable for time-series regression analysis to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations. Additionally, the availability of data from multiple geographical locations enabled the exploration of geographical differences by pooling associations using meta-analysis. This compilation aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers, educators, and students, facilitating their application of time-series regression modelling for research endeavours and training activities.

The mediatory role of water quality on the association between extreme precipitation events and infectious diarrhea in the Yangtze River Basin, China.

Extreme precipitation is exacerbating the burden of infectious diarrhea in the context of climate change, it is necessary to identify the critical and easy-to-intervene intermediate factors for public health strategies. Water quality may be the most important mediator, while relevant empirical evidence is limited. This study aimed to examine the role of water quality in the process of infectious diarrhea caused by extreme precipitation. Weekly infectious diarrhea cases, meteorological factors and water quality data in Yangtze River Basin in China between October 29, 2007 to February 19, 2017 were obtained. Two-stage statistical models were used to estimate city-specific extreme precipitation, water quality and infectious diarrhea relationships that were pooled to derive regional estimates. A causal mediation analysis was used to assess the mediation effect of water quality. In Yangtze River Basin, extreme precipitation events had a significant impact on infectious diarrhea (Incidence Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.027, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.013∼1.041). After extreme precipitation events, the dissolved oxygen (DO) in surface water decreased (-0.123 mg/L, 95%CI: -0.159 mg/L∼-0.086 mg/L), while the un-ionized ammonia (NH(3)-N) increased (0.004 mg/L, 95%CI: 0.001 mg/L∼0.006 mg/L). The combined overall effect of DO and NH(3)-N on infectious diarrhea showed that both low and high concentrations were associated with an increased risk of infectious diarrhea. The causal mediation analysis showed that the mediation proportion of the two water quality indexes (DO and NH(3)-N) is 70.54% (P < 0.001). To reduce the health effects of extreme precipitation, in contrast to current population-oriented health strategies, those that take into account more direct and easy-to-intervene water quality indicators should be encouraged by future policies.

Trust in governments, public health institutions, and other information sources as determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake behavior in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Trust in governments and public institutions as a determinant of public health outcomes has gained increased attention since the COVID-19 pandemic. Provided historically low confidence in vaccines in Japan, investigating the role of trust in information sources and actual COVID-19 vaccination uptake behavior will be invaluable for future vaccine promotion policymaking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to elucidate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake and evaluate the relationship between trust in different information sources and COVID-19 vaccination behavior in Japan. METHODS: For this study, we leveraged a longitudinal series of web-based surveys of 19,174 individuals in Japan conducted between 2021 and 2022 which asked questions regarding a wide range of sociodemographic and psychographic characteristics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Determinant analysis for vaccination (at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine) was conducted via multiple logistic regression, and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. RESULTS: After adjustment for sociodemographic determinants of vaccine uptake, aggregate trust in the systems and institutions of vaccine approval (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30-1.56), and trust in information about the COVID-19 pandemic coming from government sources (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.12-1.44) were found to be consistently powerful predictors of COVID-19 vaccination. Trust in media sources including traditional media (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07-1.36), and the internet (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.89) had significant and opposing effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the broader hypothesis that trust in governments and public health institutions remains a powerful determinant for COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Japan. We also found that vaccination decision-making is a multifactorial process that includes the synthesis of trust in public institutions and media, and its interaction with psychosocial determinants such as prosociality and health literacy. We hope to apply this study's findings towards future vaccine programs for contagious diseases.

The Association of Central Sensitisation with Depression, Anxiety, and Somatic Symptoms: A Cross-Sectional Study of a Mental Health Outpatient Clinic in Japan.

For patients with chronic pain and persistent physical symptoms, understanding the mechanism of central sensitisation may help in understanding how symptoms persist. This cross-sectional study investigated the association of central sensitisation with depression, anxiety, and somatic symptoms. Four hundred and fifteen adults attending an outpatient psychosomatic clinic were evaluated. Participants completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Somatic Symptom Scale 8, and the Central Sensitisation Inventory. The relationships between these factors were examined using descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses. The mean age was 42.3 years, and 59% were female. The disorders included adjustment disorders (n = 70), anxiety disorders (n = 63), depressive disorders (n = 103), feeding and eating disorders (n = 30), sleep-wake disorders (n = 37), somatic symptoms and related disorders (n = 84), and others (n = 28). In multiple logistic regression analyses, higher central sensitisation was associated with more severe anxiety, depression, and somatic symptoms after controlling for potential confounders. In the disease-specific analysis, somatic symptoms correlated more positively with central sensitisation than with depression or anxiety. Central sensitisation and depression, anxiety, and somatic symptoms were associated with patients attending an outpatient clinic. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating depression, anxiety, and somatic symptoms when assessing central sensitisation.

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature.

Background: Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019. Methods: Monthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders. Results: The majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27). Conclusion: We have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.

Trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination coverage in 41 low- and middle- income countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2030.

Introduction: Routine immunization programs have focused on increasing vaccination coverage, which is equally important for decreasing vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated the trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination coverage at the regional and national levels, as well as place of residence and wealth index in LMICs. Methods: In total, 174 nationally representative household surveys from 2000 to 2020 from 41 LMICs were included in this study. Bayesian hierarchical regression models were used to estimate trends and projections of age-appropriate vaccination. Results: The trend in coverage of age-appropriate Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), third dose of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP3), third dose of polio (polio3), and measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increased rapidly from 2000 to 2020 in LMICs. Findings indicate substantial increases at the regional and national levels, and by area of residence and socioeconomic status between 2000 and 2030. The largest rise was observed in East Africa, followed by South and Southeast Asia. However, out of the 41 countries, only 10 countries are estimated to achieve 90% coverage of the BCG vaccine by 2030, five of DTP3, three of polio3, and none of MCV. Additionally, by 2030, wider pro-urban and -rich inequalities are expected in several African countries. Conclusion: Significant progress in age-appropriate vaccination coverage has been made in LMICs from 2000 to 2020. Despite this, projections show many countries will not meet the 2030 coverage goals, with persistent urban-rural and socioeconomic disparities. Therefore, LMICs must prioritize underperforming areas and reduce inequalities through stronger health systems and increased community engagement to ensure high coverage and equitable vaccine access.

Heat-related mortality and ambulance transport after a power outage in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Background: Air conditioners can prevent heat-related illness and mortality, but the increased use of air conditioners may enhance susceptibility to heat-related illnesses during large-scale power failures. Here, we examined the risks of heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT) and mortality associated with typhoon-related electricity reduction (ER) in the summer months in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Methods: We conducted event study analyses to compare temperature-HIAT and mortality associations before and after the power outage (July to September 2019). To better understand the role of temperature during the power outage, we then examined whether the temperature-HIAT and mortality associations were modified by different power outage levels (0%, 10%, and 20% ER). We computed the ratios of relative risks to compare the risks associated with various ER values to the risks associated without ER. Results: We analyzed the data of 14,912 HIAT cases and 74,064 deaths. Overall, 93,200 power outage cases were observed when the typhoon hit. Event study results showed that the incidence rate ratio was 2.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 2.84) with effects enduring up to 6 days, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.22) for mortality on the first 3 days after the typhoon hit. Comparing 20% to 0% ER, the ratios of relative risks of heat exposure were 2.32 (95% CI = 1.41, 3.82) for HIAT and 0.95 (95% CI = 0.75, 1.22) for mortality. Conclusions: A 20% ER was associated with a two-fold greater risk of HIAT because of summer heat during the power outage, but there was little evidence for the association with all-cause mortality.

Association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches in Japan: A nationwide case-crossover study.

Background: Although the effects of temperature on genitourinary morbidity and mortality have been investigated in several countries, it remains largely unexplored in Japan. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) in Japan and the modifying roles of sex, age, and illness severity. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the association between mean temperature and genitourinary EADs in all prefectures of Japan between 2015 and 2019. A mixed-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the association at the country level. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore differences in associations stratified by sex, age, and illness severity. Results: We found an increased risk of genitourinary EAD associated with higher temperatures. The cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th temperature percentile compared with that at the 1st percentile was 1.74 (95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.60, 1.89]). We observed higher heat-related RRs in males (RR = 1.89; 95% CI = [1.73, 2.07]) than females (RR = 1.56; 95% CI = [1.37, 1.76]), and in the younger (RR = 2.13; 95% CI = [1.86, 2.45]) than elderly (RR = 1.39; 95% CI = [1.22, 1.58]). We found a significant association for those with mild or moderate cases (RR = 1.77; 95% CI = [1.62, 1.93]), but not for severe or life-threatening cases (RR = 1.20; 95% CI = [0.80, 1.82]). Conclusion: Our study revealed heat effects on genitourinary EADs in Japan. Men, youth, and mild-moderate illnesses were particularly vulnerable subgroups. These findings underscore the need for preventative measures aimed at mitigating the impact of temperature on genitourinary emergencies.