Seasonal persistence of faecal indicator organisms in soil following dairy slurry application to land by surface broadcasting and shallow injection.

Dairy farming generates large volumes of liquid manure (slurry), which is ultimately recycled to agricultural land as a valuable source of plant nutrients. Different methods of slurry application to land exist; some spread the slurry to the sward surface whereas others deliver the slurry under the sward and into the soil, thus helping to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of two slurry application methods (surface broadcast versus shallow injection) on the survival of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) delivered via dairy slurry to replicated grassland plots across contrasting seasons. A significant increase in FIO persistence (measured by the half-life of E. coli and intestinal enterococci) was observed when slurry was applied to grassland via shallow injection, and FIO decay rates were significantly higher for FIOs applied to grassland in spring relative to summer and autumn. Significant differences in the behaviour of E. coli and intestinal enterococci over time were also observed, with E. coli half-lives influenced more strongly by season of application relative to the intestinal enterococci population. While shallow injection of slurry can reduce agricultural GHG emissions to air it can also prolong the persistence of FIOs in soil, potentially increasing the risk of their subsequent transfer to water. Awareness of (and evidence for) the potential for 'pollution-swapping' is critical in order to guard against unintended environmental impacts of agricultural management decisions.

Molecular tools for bathing water assessment in Europe: Balancing social science research with a rapidly developing environmental science evidence-base.

The use of molecular tools, principally qPCR, versus traditional culture-based methods for quantifying microbial parameters (e.g., Fecal Indicator Organisms) in bathing waters generates considerable ongoing debate at the science-policy interface. Advances in science have allowed the development and application of molecular biological methods for rapid (~2 h) quantification of microbial pollution in bathing and recreational waters. In contrast, culture-based methods can take between 18 and 96 h for sample processing. Thus, molecular tools offer an opportunity to provide a more meaningful statement of microbial risk to water-users by providing near-real-time information enabling potentially more informed decision-making with regard to water-based activities. However, complementary studies concerning the potential costs and benefits of adopting rapid methods as a regulatory tool are in short supply. We report on findings from an international Working Group that examined the breadth of social impacts, challenges, and research opportunities associated with the application of molecular tools to bathing water regulations.

Impact of low intensity summer rainfall on E. coli-discharge event dynamics with reference to sample acquisition and storage.

Understanding the role of different rainfall scenarios on faecal indicator organism (FIO) dynamics under variable field conditions is important to strengthen the evidence base on which regulators and land managers can base informed decisions regarding diffuse microbial pollution risks. We sought to investigate the impact of low intensity summer rainfall on Escherichia coli-discharge (Q) patterns at the headwater catchment scale in order to provide new empirical data on FIO concentrations observed during baseflow conditions. In addition, we evaluated the potential impact of using automatic samplers to collect and store freshwater samples for subsequent microbial analysis during summer storm sampling campaigns. The temporal variation of E. coli concentrations with Q was captured during six events throughout a relatively dry summer in central Scotland. The relationship between E. coli concentration and Q was complex with no discernible patterns of cell emergence with Q that were repeated across all events. On several occasions, an order of magnitude increase in E. coli concentrations occurred even with slight increases in Q, but responses were not consistent and highlighted the challenges of attempting to characterise temporal responses of E. coli concentrations relative to Q during low intensity rainfall. Cross-comparison of E. coli concentrations determined in water samples using simultaneous manual grab and automated sample collection was undertaken with no difference in concentrations observed between methods. However, the duration of sample storage within the autosampler unit was found to be more problematic in terms of impacting on the representativeness of microbial water quality, with unrefrigerated autosamplers exhibiting significantly different concentrations of E. coli relative to initial samples after 12-h storage. The findings from this study provide important empirical contributions to the growing evidence base in the field of catchment microbial dynamics.

Fine-scale in situ measurement of riverbed nitrate production and consumption in an armored permeable riverbed.

Alteration of the global nitrogen cycle by man has increased nitrogen loading in waterways considerably, often with harmful consequences for aquatic ecosystems. Dynamic redox conditions within riverbeds support a variety of nitrogen transformations, some of which can attenuate this burden. In reality, however, assessing the importance of processes besides perhaps denitrification is difficult, due to a sparseness of data, especially in situ, where sediment structure and hydrologic pathways are intact. Here we show in situ within a permeable riverbed, through injections of (15)N-labeled substrates, that nitrate can be either consumed through denitrification or produced through nitrification, at a previously unresolved fine (centimeter) scale. Nitrification and denitrification occupy different niches in the riverbed, with denitrification occurring across a broad chemical gradient while nitrification is restricted to more oxic sediments. The narrow niche width for nitrification is in effect a break point, with the switch from activity "on" to activity "off" regulated by interactions between subsurface chemistry and hydrology. Although maxima for denitrification and nitrification occur at opposing ends of a chemical gradient, high potentials for both nitrate production and consumption can overlap when groundwater upwelling is strong.

Opportunities and limitations of molecular methods for quantifying microbial compliance parameters in EU bathing waters.

The debate over the suitability of molecular biological methods for the enumeration of regulatory microbial parameters (e.g. Faecal Indicator Organisms [FIOs]) in bathing waters versus the use of traditional culture-based methods is of current interest to regulators and the science community. Culture-based methods require a 24-48hour turn-around time from receipt at the laboratory to reporting, whilst quantitative molecular tools provide a more rapid assay (approximately 2-3h). Traditional culturing methods are therefore often viewed as slow and 'out-dated', although they still deliver an internationally 'accepted' evidence-base. In contrast, molecular tools have the potential for rapid analysis and their operational utility and associated limitations and uncertainties should be assessed in light of their use for regulatory monitoring. Here we report on the recommendations from a series of international workshops, chaired by a UK Working Group (WG) comprised of scientists, regulators, policy makers and other stakeholders, which explored and interrogated both molecular (principally quantitative polymerase chain reaction [qPCR]) and culture-based tools for FIO monitoring under the European Bathing Water Directive. Through detailed analysis of policy implications, regulatory barriers, stakeholder engagement, and the needs of the end-user, the WG identified a series of key concerns that require critical appraisal before a potential shift from culture-based approaches to the employment of molecular biological methods for bathing water regulation could be justified.

"Wrong, but useful": negotiating uncertainty in infectious disease modelling.

For infectious disease dynamical models to inform policy for containment of infectious diseases the models must be able to predict; however, it is well recognised that such prediction will never be perfect. Nevertheless, the consensus is that although models are uncertain, some may yet inform effective action. This assumes that the quality of a model can be ascertained in order to evaluate sufficiently model uncertainties, and to decide whether or not, or in what ways or under what conditions, the model should be 'used'. We examined uncertainty in modelling, utilising a range of data: interviews with scientists, policy-makers and advisors, and analysis of policy documents, scientific publications and reports of major inquiries into key livestock epidemics. We show that the discourse of uncertainty in infectious disease models is multi-layered, flexible, contingent, embedded in context and plays a critical role in negotiating model credibility. We argue that usability and stability of a model is an outcome of the negotiation that occurs within the networks and discourses surrounding it. This negotiation employs a range of discursive devices that renders uncertainty in infectious disease modelling a plastic quality that is amenable to 'interpretive flexibility'. The utility of models in the face of uncertainty is a function of this flexibility, the negotiation this allows, and the contexts in which model outputs are framed and interpreted in the decision making process. We contend that rather than being based predominantly on beliefs about quality, the usefulness and authority of a model may at times be primarily based on its functional status within the broad social and political environment in which it acts.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments.

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative--data-driven--inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. We take a bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems.

Determining E. coli burden on pasture in a headwater catchment: combined field and modelling approach.

Empirical monitoring studies of catchment-scale Escherichia coli burden to land from agriculture are scarce. This is not surprising given the complexity associated with the temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the excretion of livestock faecal deposits and variability in microbial content of faeces. However, such information is needed to appreciate better how land management and landscape features impact on water quality draining agricultural landscapes. The aim of this study was to develop and test a field-based protocol for determining the burden of E. coli in a small headwater catchment in the UK. Predictions of E. coli burden using an empirical model based on previous best estimates of excretion and shedding rates were also evaluated against observed data. The results indicated that an empirical model utilising key parameters was able to satisfactorily predict E. coli burden on pasture most of the time, with 89% of observed values falling within the minimum and maximum range of predicted values. In particular, the overall temporal pattern of E. coli burden on pasture is captured by the model. The observed and predicted values recorded a disagreement of >1 order of magnitude on only one of the nine sampling dates throughout an annual period. While a first approximation of E. coli burden to land, this field-based protocol represents one of the first comprehensive approaches for providing a real estimate of a dynamic microbial reservoir at the headwater catchment scale and highlights the utility of a simple dynamic empirical model for a more economical prediction of catchment-scale E. coli burden.

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other risk management situations.

Uncertainties in the governance of animal disease: an interdisciplinary framework for analysis.

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of strategies to contain animal disease. In this paper, an interdisciplinary framework for representing strategies of containment, and analysing how uncertainties are embedded and propagated through them, is developed and illustrated. Analysis centres on persistent, periodic and emerging disease threats, with a particular focus on cryptosporidiosis, foot and mouth disease and avian influenza. Uncertainty is shown to be produced at strategic, tactical and operational levels of containment, and across the different arenas of disease prevention, anticipation and alleviation. The paper argues for more critically reflexive assessments of uncertainty in containment policy and practice. An interdisciplinary approach has an important contribution to make, but is absent from current real-world containment policy.

Re-shaping models of E. coli population dynamics in livestock faeces: increased bacterial risk to humans?

Dung-pats excreted directly on pasture from grazing animals can contribute a significant burden of faecal microbes to agricultural land. The aim of this study was to use a combined field and modelling approach to determine the importance of Escherichia coli growth in dung-pats when predicting faecal bacteria accumulation on grazed grassland. To do this an empirical model was developed to predict the dynamics of an E. coli reservoir within 1ha plots each grazed by four beef steers for six months. Published first-order die-off coefficients were used within the model to describe the expected decline of E. coli in dung-pats. Modelled estimates using first-order kinetics led to an underestimation of the observed E. coli land reservoir, when using site-specific die-off coefficients. A simultaneous experiment determined the die-off profiles of E. coli within fresh faeces of beef cattle under field relevant conditions and suggested that faecal bacteria may experience growth and re-growth in the period post defecation when exposed to a complex interaction of environmental drivers such as variable temperature, UV radiation and moisture levels. This growth phase in dung-pats is not accounted for in models based on first-order die-off coefficients. When the model was amended to incorporate the growth of E. coli, equivalent to that observed in the field study, the prediction of the E. coli reservoir was improved with respect to the observed data and produced a previously unquantified step-change improvement in model predictions of the accumulation of these faecal bacteria on grasslands. Results from this study suggest that the use of first-order kinetic equations for determining land-based reservoirs of faecal bacteria should be approached with caution and greater emphasis placed on accounting for actual survival patterns observed under field relevant conditions.

Measurement of colloid mobilization and redeposition during drainage in quartz sand.

Movement of wetting and drying fronts through the vadose zone can mobilize and transport colloid particles but the mechanisms are not fully understood. We used mesoscale (mm-dm) fluorescence imaging to measure mobilization of 1.9 microm diameter carboxylate-latex microspheres during drainage in quartz sand. Experiments were performed at ionic strengths of 2-50 mM and drainage rates of 1.0-0.2 mL min(-1). Colloids were mobilized and transported steadily at a sharp decrease in pore saturation marking the drying front. The mobilization rate varied directly with the initial immobile particle concentration. The mobilization rate constant varied inversely with ionic strength and directly with drainage rate. Peak mobile particle concentration at the drying front varied nonmonotonically, and the mobilization efficiency decreased with distance traveled by the drying front, at high ionic strengths. These findings constitute evidence for particle redeposition from the drying front as drainage progresses, which we propose is a key factor in the observed variations with ionic strength and drainage rate in the total number of particles removed during drainage. The measured outcomes of particle mobilization during a drainage event are sensitive to the distributions of immobile particles prior to drainage and dependent on the length scales over which the drainage event is observed.

Integrating contributing areas and indexing phosphorus loss from agricultural watersheds.

Most states in the USA have adopted P Indexing to guide P-based management of agricultural fields by identifying the relative risk of P loss at farm and watershed scales. To a large extent, this risk is based on hydrologic principles that frequently occurring storms can initiate surface runoff from fields. Once initiated, this hydrological pathway has a high potential to transport P to the stream. In regions where hydrologically active areas of watersheds vary in time and space, surface runoff generation by "saturation excess" has been linked to distance from stream, with larger events resulting in larger contributing distances. Thus, storm-return period and P loss from a 39.5-ha mixed-land-use watershed in Pennsylvania was evaluated to relate return-period thresholds and distances contributing P to streams. Of 248 storm flows between 1997 and 2006, 93% had a return period of 1 yr, contributing 47% of total P (TP) export, while the largest two storms (10-yr return period) accounted for 23% of TP export. Contributing distance thresholds for the watershed were determined (50-150 m) for a range of storm-return periods (1-10 yr) from hydrograph analysis. By modifying storm-return period thresholds in the P Index and thereby contributing distance, it is possible to account for greater risk of P loss during large storms. For instance, increasing return period threshold from 1 (current P indices) to 5 yr, which accounted for 67% of TP export, increased the P-management restricted area from 20 to 58% of the watershed. An increase in impacted area relative to a decreased risk of P loss creates a management-policy dilemma that cannot be ignored.

Phosphorus loss from an agricultural watershed as a function of storm size.

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds is generally greater in storm rather than base flow. Although fundamental to P-based risk assessment tools, few studies have quantified the effect of storm size on P loss. Thus, the loss of P as a function of flow type (base and storm flow) and size was quantified for a mixed-land use watershed (FD-36; 39.5 ha) from 1997 to 2006. Storm size was ranked by return period (<1, 1-3, 3-5, 5-10, and >10 yr), where increasing return period represents storms with greater peak and total flow. From 1997 to 2006, storm flow accounted for 32% of watershed discharge yet contributed 65% of dissolved reactive P (DP) (107 g ha(-1) yr(-1)) and 80% of total P (TP) exported (515 g ha(-1) yr(-1)). Of 248 storm flows during this period, 93% had a return period of <1 yr, contributing most of the 10-yr flow (6507 m(3) ha(-1); 63%) and export of DP (574 g ha(-1); 54%) and TP (2423 g ha(-1); 47%). Two 10-yr storms contributed 23% of P exported between 1997 and 2006. A significant increase in storm flow DP concentration with storm size (0.09-0.16 mg L(-1)) suggests that P release from soil and/or area of the watershed producing runoff increase with storm size. Thus, implementation of P-based Best Management Practice needs to consider what level of risk management is acceptable.

High-resolution measurement of pore saturation and colloid removal efficiency in quartz sand using fluorescence imaging.

Colloid deposition in unsaturated, nonuniform porous media is poorly explained by current models and difficult to measure using breakthrough curves and retained mass profiles. We present new methods which enable time-lapse fluorescence imaging to quantify variations in pore saturation, theta, and colloid deposition in 2D, nonuniform unsaturated flow fields. Calibration experiments revealed direct proportionality between fluorescence F and theta in 20/30 mesh quartz sand. Analysis of breakthrough data in fluorescence images allows quantification of the mean mobile concentration, mean deposition rate, and hence the colloid removal efficiency eta directly from data at the pixel-scale throughoutthe flow field. We imaged carboxylate-modified latex microspheres from a point source in saturated flow and unsaturated flow across a capillary fringe at 10(-3), 10(-2), and 10(-1) M NaCl. Total numbers of colloids deposited and values of eta increased with ionic strength. We modeled the observed variations in eta with theta to estimate the partitioning of colloid deposition between air-water and solid-water interfaces. In the broad saturation range 0.2 < theta < 1, our results suggest that only at the lowest ionic strength, where deposition at solid-water interfaces was strongly unfavorable, did colloid deposition associated with air-water interfaces significantly influence the total colloid removal.

Noninvasive quantitative measurement of colloid transport in mesoscale porous media using time lapse fluorescence imaging.

We demonstrate noninvasive quantitative imaging of colloid and solute transport at millimeter to decimeter (meso-) scale. Ultraviolet (UV) excited fluorescent solute and colloid tracers were independently measured simultaneously during co-advection through saturated quartz sand. Pulse-input experiments were conducted at constant flow rates and ionic strengths 10(-3), 10(-2) and 10(-1) M NaCl. Tracers were 1.9 microm carboxylate latex microspheres and disodium fluorescein. Spatial moments analysis was used to quantify relative changes in mass distribution of the colloid and solute tracers over time. The solute advected through the sand at a constant velocity proportional to flow rate and was described well by a conservative transport model (CXTFIT). In unfavorable deposition conditions increasing ionic strength produced significant reduction in colloid center of mass transport velocity over time. Velocity trends correlated with the increasing fraction of colloid mass retained along the flowpath. Attachment efficiencies (defined by colloid filtration theory) calculated from nondestructive retained mass data were 0.013 +/- 0.03, 0.09 +/- 0.02, and 0.22 +/- 0.05 at 10(-3), 10(-2), and 10(-1) M ionic strength, respectively, which compared well with previously published data from breakthrough curves and destructive sampling. Mesoscale imaging of colloid mass dynamics can quantify key deposition and transport parameters based on noninvasive, nondestructive, spatially high-resolution data.

Differential E. coli die-off patterns associated with agricultural matrices.

The investigation of fecal bacterial die-off in various agricultural and catchment related matrices remains important because of the growing concern over pathogens in agricultural environments and watercourses. The aim of this research was to investigate the die-off of Escherichia coli within cattle manure (both slurry [liquid mix of excrement and urine produced by housed livestock] and feces), soil, and runoff water and to determine if cell numbers would be influenced by the presence of cattle manure within soil and runoff water. E. coli survived better within feces than in slurry; cells within feces declined from 7.5 to 3.3 log CFU g(-1) in 76 days. Within slurry, cells fell from 8.5 log CFU g(-1) to below levels of detection by day 42. E. coli died off more quickly within manure and slurry than in soil amended with the same fecal material, and declined significantly faster within microcosms when introduced to the soil via sterile water rather than cattle manure. E. coli was found to decline more rapidly within wet (50% moisture w/w), rather than dry (25% moisture w/w), soil. Conversely, in runoff water, die-off of E. coli was increased in the presence of feces. Overall, E. coli die-off was most rapid in water incorporated with cattle manure > unincorporated cattle manure > soil incorporated with cattle manure. The derived die-off characteristics including half-life and decimal reduction times can now provide (i) input for predictive models and (ii) information upon which to consider mitigation strategies associated with both manure and land management.

Suppression of dissolved organic carbon by sulfate induced acidification during simulated droughts.

The relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the acidification of soils and freshwaters by sulfate (SO4(2-)) has been a topic of great debate over the last few decades. Most interest has focused on long-term acidification. Few have considered the influence of episodic drought-induced acidification in peatlands on DOC mobility, even through the increased acidity and ionic strength associated with the oxidation of reduced sulfur to SO4(2-) are known to reduce DOC solubility. Reduced DOC concentrations during droughts have often been attributed to: (i) reduced hydrological export; (ii) physicochemical changes in the peat structure; or (iii) changes in the biological production and/or consumption of DOC. Our experimental drought simulations on peat cores showed that SO4(2-) induced acidification reduced DOC concentrations during droughts. However, the relationships between SO4(2-)/pH/ ionic strength and DOC were only apparent when the reductions in observed DOC were expressed as a fraction of the estimated DOC concentration in the absence of SO4(2-), which were derived from soil depth, temperature, and watertable data. This analysis showed that a pH fall from 4.3 to 3.5, due to a SO4(2-) rise from < 2.5 to 35 mg L(-1), caused a 60% reduction in DOC concentrations. In contrast, poor correlations were recorded between S042-/pH/ionic strength and the observed DOC data. As DOC both influences acidity and is influenced by acidity, the relative change in DOC needed to be considered to disentangle the effect of inputs of mineral acids into a system naturally dominated by variable concentrations of organic acids.