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An effective prophylactic vaccine for prevention of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection would have a major impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Interest in developing gonorrhoea vaccines is growing due to the reported high rates of N. gonorrhoeae infections globally, and the threat of antimicrobial resistance. Several gonorrhoea vaccine candidates are currently under evaluation and various mathematical models have been used to assess the potential population-level impact a gonorrhoea vaccine may have once available. Here we review key aspects of gonorrhoea vaccine mathematical modelling studies, including model structures, populations considered, and assumptions used as well as vaccine characteristics and implementation scenarios investigated. The predicted vaccine impact varied between studies, ranging from as little as â¼17 % reduction in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence after 30 years up to 100 % reduction after 5 years. However, all studies predicted that even a partially effective gonorrhoea vaccine could have a substantial impact in reducing N. gonorrhoeae prevalence or incidence, particularly when high coverage is achieved within either important risk groups or the overall sexually active population. As expected, higher vaccine efficacy against acquisition of N. gonorrhoeae and longer duration of protection were linked to greater reductions in infections. A vaccine that alters onward transmission could also substantially reduce infections. Several gaps and research needs have been identified by researchers in the field and via this narrative literature review. For example, future modelling to inform gonorrhoea vaccine development and implementation should consider additional populations that are at high risk of N. gonorrhoeae infection, especially in low- and middle-income settings, as well as the impact of vaccination on the potential adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes of infection. In addition, more detailed and robust epidemiological, biological, and behavioural data is needed to enable more accurate and robust modelling of gonorrhoea vaccine impact to inform future scientific and public health decision-making.
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Vacunas Bacterianas , Gonorrea , Modelos Teóricos , Neisseria gonorrhoeae , Gonorrea/prevención & control , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Gonorrea/inmunología , Humanos , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/inmunología , Vacunas Bacterianas/inmunología , Vacunas Bacterianas/administración & dosificación , Desarrollo de Vacunas , Prevalencia , Eficacia de las VacunasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae is under threat with the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. Thus, there is a growing interest in the development of a gonorrhoea vaccine. We used mathematical modelling to assess the impact of a hypothetical vaccine in controlling gonorrhoea among heterosexuals living in a setting of relatively high N. gonorrhoeae prevalence (â¼3 %). METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of N. gonorrhoeae transmission among 15-49-year-old heterosexuals, stratified by age and sex, and calibrated to prevalence and sexual behaviour data from South Africa as an example of a high prevalence setting for which we have data available. Using this model, we assessed the potential impact of a vaccine on N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in the entire population. We considered gonorrhoea vaccines having differing impacts on N. gonorrhoeae infection and transmission and offered to different age-groups. RESULTS: The model predicts that N. gonorrhoeae prevalence can be reduced by â¼50 % in 10 years following introduction of a vaccine if annual vaccination uptake is 10 %, vaccine efficacy against acquisition of infection is 25 % and duration of protection is 5 years, with vaccination available to the entire population of 15-49-year-olds. If only 15-24-year-olds are vaccinated, the predicted reduction in prevalence in the entire population is 25 % with equivalent vaccine characteristics and uptake. Although predicted reductions in prevalence for vaccination programmes targeting only high-activity individuals and the entire population are similar over the same period, vaccinating only high-activity individuals is more efficient as the cumulative number of vaccinations needed to reduce prevalence in the entire population by 50 % is â¼3 times lower for this programme. CONCLUSION: Provision of a gonorrhoea vaccine could lead to substantial reductions in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in a high prevalence heterosexual setting, even with moderate annual vaccination uptake of a vaccine with partial efficacy.
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Gonorrea , Neisseria gonorrhoeae , Humanos , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Gonorrea/prevención & control , Heterosexualidad , Prevalencia , Vacunas BacterianasRESUMEN
Background: In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with outcomes after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (ARCR); however, the relationship between outcomes and postoperative serum glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) after ARCR has not been investigated. Purpose: To evaluate outcomes after ARCR in patients (1) with and without DM and (2) with DM according to their pre- and postoperative HbA1c levels. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Method: Included in this study were 148 patients without DM and 35 patients with type 2 DM who underwent ARCR between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019. Clinical and radiological outcomes were evaluated preoperatively and at the latest clinical follow-up. Postoperative magnetic resonance imaging was performed after 12 months. In patients with type 2 DM, HbA1c levels were evaluated preoperatively as well as 6 and 12 months postoperatively; patients with an HbA1c level of ≥7% were defined as having uncontrolled DM. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the factors for retears after ARCR. Results: The retear rates after ARCR were 22.9% (8/35) and 16.9% (25/148) in patients with and without DM, respectively. The retear rates were significantly higher in the 6-month postoperative uncontrolled DM group than in the controlled DM and non-DM groups (50% vs 8.7% and 16.8%; P < .05). The odds ratio for retears in the postoperative uncontrolled DM group was 5.555 (P =0.01) compared with the non-DM group. Among the patients with DM, in the uncontrolled DM group, 6-month postoperative hyperglycemia was superior in accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for predicting retears after ARCR than preoperative hyperglycemia (77.1% vs 62.9%, 75% vs 37.5%, and 77.8% vs 70.4%, respectively). Conclusion: This study demonstrated the association between uncontrolled postoperative DM and an increased risk of retears compared with no DM or controlled DM. Furthermore, postoperative HbA1c values were correlated more closely with the risk of retears than preoperative HbA1c values.
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Objective: Syphilis infection remains a significant health issue among marginalised populations in Indonesia, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM), in whom there are limited studies from Indonesia exploring risk factors associated with STI acquisition.Our study aimed to identify risk factors of syphilis infection among MSM attending large sexual health clinic in Jakarta. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using patient records (MSM aged 18 years or older) period Jan 2018-Dec 2019. We used Cox regression to identify risk factors associated with syphilis incidence. Results: Study population were 2912 MSM tested for syphilis, 473 (16.2%) were diagnosed with syphilis on their first visit; early syphilis (415; 14%) and latent syphilis (58, 2%). Among the cohort of 2439 MSM who tested negative at baseline, 40 MSM were identified with a new positive syphilis result during 2 years follow up. Risk factors remaining significantly associated with syphilis incidence included having STI symptom at 1st visit (aHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.38-5.65), and HIV-infection (aHR 4.53; 95% CI 2.24 - 9.17).Syphilis incidence rate was 8.19 (95% CI 6.01-11.16) per 100 PYFU. Conclusions: Syphilis infection at baseline and incidence was high among MSM attending this large clinic in Jakarta. Integrated and accessible syphilis prevention and detection coupled with HIV services are needed, with a special focus on high-risk individuals.
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Infecciones por VIH , Salud Sexual , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Sífilis , Masculino , Humanos , Sífilis/diagnóstico , Homosexualidad Masculina , Incidencia , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Retrospectivos , Indonesia/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Factores de Riesgo , Conducta SexualRESUMEN
Background: A syphilis outbreak among Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (respectfully referred to as Aboriginal) has resulted in almost 4000 notifications by 2020, with several congenital syphilis cases and infant deaths. Outbreak control efforts became coordinated under a National enhanced test and treat response in 2017. We evaluated the impact of these efforts and of expansion of testing interventions on syphilis prevalence. Methods: We developed an individual-based mathematical model of infectious syphilis transmission among young heterosexual Aboriginal people aged 15-34 years living in and moving between regional and remote areas, and we assessed the impact of existing and hypothetical outbreak control responses on syphilis prevalence. Results: The increased testing coverage achieved through the response (from 18% to 39% over 2011-2020) could stabilize the epidemic from 2021. To return to pre-outbreak prevalence (<0.24%) by 2025, testing coverage must reach 60%. The addition of annual community-wide screening, where 30% of youth in communities are tested over 6 weeks, would reduce prevalence to the pre-outbreak level within 4 years. If testing coverage had been scaled-up to 60% at the start of outbreak in mid-2011, the outbreak would have been mitigated. Conclusions: Our results suggest that to control the syphilis outbreak, the response needs to be delivered to enable the maximum coverage of testing to be reached in the shortest time to reduce the prevalence to pre-outbreak levels. Reduction could be hastened with community-wide screening at similar time periods across all communities together with increases in annual testing coverage.
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BACKGROUND: The Australian Chlamydia Control Effectiveness Pilot (ACCEPt) was a cluster randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effectiveness of annual chlamydia testing through general practice in Australia. The trial showed that testing rates increased among sexually active men and women aged 16-29 years, but after 3 years the estimated chlamydia prevalence did not differ between intervention and control communities. We developed a mathematical model to estimate the potential longer-term impact of chlamydia testing on prevalence in the general population. METHODS: We developed an individual-based model to simulate the transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis in a heterosexual population, calibrated to ACCEPt data. A proportion of the modelled population were tested for chlamydia and treated annually at coverage achieved in the control and intervention arms of ACCEPt. We estimated the reduction in chlamydia prevalence achieved by increasing retesting and by treating the partners of infected individuals up to 9 years after introduction of the intervention. RESULTS: Increasing the testing coverage in the general Australian heterosexual population to the level achieved in the ACCEPt intervention arm resulted in reduction in the population-level prevalence of chlamydia from 4.6% to 2.7% in those aged 16-29 years old after 10 years (a relative reduction of 41%). The prevalence reduces to 2.2% if the proportion retested within 4 months of treatment is doubled from the rate achieved in the ACCEPt intervention arm (a relative reduction of 52%), and to 1.9% if the partner treatment rate is increased from 30%, as assumed in the base case, to 50% (a relative reduction of 59%). CONCLUSION: A reduction in C. trachomatis prevalence could be achieved if the level of testing as observed in the ACCEPt intervention arm can be maintained at a population level. More substantial reductions can be achieved with intensified case management comprising retesting of those treated and treatment of partners of infected individuals.
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Infecciones por Chlamydia , Chlamydia trachomatis , Adolescente , Adulto , Australia/epidemiología , Infecciones por Chlamydia/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Chlamydia/epidemiología , Infecciones por Chlamydia/prevención & control , Trazado de Contacto , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A gonococcal vaccine is urgently needed due to increasing gonorrhea incidence and emerging multidrug-resistant gonococcal strains worldwide. Men who have sex with men (MSM) have among the highest incidences of gonorrhea and may be a key target population for vaccination when available. METHODS: An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model was used to simulate Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission in a population of 10â 000 MSM. The impact of vaccination on gonorrhea prevalence was assessed. RESULTS: With a gonococcal vaccine of 100% or 50% protective efficacy, gonorrhea prevalence could be reduced by 94% or 62%, respectively, within 2 years if 30% of MSM are vaccinated on presentation for sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing. Elimination of gonorrhea is possible within 8 years with vaccines ofâ ≥â 50% efficacy lasting 2 years, providing a booster vaccination is available every 3 years on average. A vaccine's impact may be reduced if it is not effective at all anatomical sites. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that with a vaccine of modest efficacy and an immunization strategy that targets MSM presenting for STI screening, the prevalence of gonorrhea in this population could be rapidly and substantially reduced.
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Gonorrea , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Vacunas Bacterianas , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Gonorrea/prevención & control , Homosexualidad Masculina , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Neisseria gonorrhoeaeRESUMEN
The ability to treat gonorrhoea with current first-line drugs is threatened by the global spread of extensively drug resistant (XDR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) strains. In Australia, urban transmission is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) and importation of an XDR NG strain in this population could result in an epidemic that would be difficult and costly to control. An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model of NG transmission among Australian MSM was developed and used to evaluate the potential for elimination of an imported NG strain under a range of case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. When initiated upon detection of the imported strain, these strategies enhance the probability of elimination and reduce the outbreak size compared with current practice (current testing levels and no contact tracing). The most effective strategies combine testing targeted at regular and casual partners with increased rates of population testing. However, even with the most effective strategies, outbreaks can persist for up to 2 years post-detection. Our simulations suggest that local elimination of imported NG strains can be achieved with high probability using combined case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. These strategies may be an effective means of preserving current treatments in the event of wider XDR NG emergence.
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Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Gonorrea/prevención & control , Homosexualidad Masculina , Modelos Biológicos , Australia/epidemiología , Biología Computacional , Simulación por Computador , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Gonorrea/microbiología , Humanos , Masculino , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/efectos de los fármacos , PrevalenciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses. METHODS: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case. RESULTS: Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80-90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost. CONCLUSIONS: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses.
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COVID-19 , Australia/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , ARN Viral , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Using mathematical modelling, we have previously shown that the prevalence of infection with Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) is likely to increase in the general population in Australia with the transition from Pap smear-based cervical screening to human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing. Here we use the existing model to estimate the level of supplemental testing required to maintain TV control. METHODS: A compartmental mathematical model describing the transmission of TV in the general heterosexual population in Australia was used to evaluate the impact of a range of screening scenarios on TV prevalence over time following the transition to HPV DNA testing for cervical screening. Scenarios considered were the inclusion of a TV test with the HPV test and the addition of TV testing to routine chlamydia testing conducted in primary care. RESULTS: Our modelling suggests that with sufficient coverage, inclusion of TV testing with routine chlamydia screening in general practice, TV prevalence can be reduced over time, but at the current reported coverage will gradually increase following the transition to HPV testing. Inclusion of TV testing with HPV testing in the cervical screening programme is preferable to no supplemental testing but is considerably less effective in controlling TV. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the inclusion of TV testing with routine chlamydia testing of young people.
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Papillomaviridae/aislamiento & purificación , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Vaginitis por Trichomonas/diagnóstico , Trichomonas vaginalis/aislamiento & purificación , Adulto , Australia/epidemiología , Femenino , Pruebas de ADN del Papillomavirus Humano , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Prueba de Papanicolaou , Papillomaviridae/clasificación , Papillomaviridae/genética , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/virología , Vaginitis por Trichomonas/epidemiología , Vaginitis por Trichomonas/parasitología , Trichomonas vaginalis/genética , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Hepatitis A incidence has declined in most countries through a combination of prevention measures, augmented through the use of a highly effective vaccine. In Australia, the proportion of the population susceptible to hepatitis A infection has declined over time due to high rates of opportunistic vaccination as well as the sustained inflow of seropositive immigrants from high-endemicity countries. These factors have contributed to a rapid decline in incidence. An age-structured hepatitis A transmission model incorporating demographic changes was fitted to seroprevalence and disease notification data and used to project incidence trends and transmission potential for hepatitis A in the general population. Robustness of findings was assessed through worst-case scenarios regarding vaccine uptake, migration and the duration of immunity. The decline in age-specific seroprevalence until the introduction of hepatitis A vaccine in 1994 was well explained through a declining basic reproduction number (R0 ) that remained >1. Accounting for existing immunity, we estimated that the effective reproduction number (Reff ) <1 in the general population of Australia since the early 1990s, declining more rapidly after the introduction of the hepatitis A vaccine. Future projections under a variety of scenarios support Reff remaining <1 with continued low incidence in the general population. In conclusion, our results suggest that sustained endemic transmission in the general Australian population is no longer possible although risks of sporadic outbreaks remain. This suggests potential for local elimination of hepatitis A infection in Australia, provided that elimination criteria can be defined and satisfied in risk groups. The methodology used here to investigate elimination potential can easily be replicated in settings such as in the USA where sequential seroprevalence studies are supported by routine notification data.
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Notificación de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Hepatitis A/epidemiología , Hepatitis A/transmisión , Modelos Teóricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Australia/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Erradicación de la Enfermedad/métodos , Erradicación de la Enfermedad/tendencias , Brotes de Enfermedades , Hepatitis A/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la Hepatitis A/administración & dosificación , Vacunas contra la Hepatitis A/inmunología , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto JovenAsunto(s)
Antibacterianos/administración & dosificación , Azitromicina/administración & dosificación , Ceftriaxona/administración & dosificación , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana , Gonorrea/tratamiento farmacológico , Neisseria meningitidis/efectos de los fármacos , Faringitis/tratamiento farmacológico , Simulación por Computador , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Femenino , Gonorrea/microbiología , Gonorrea/transmisión , Humanos , Masculino , Neisseria meningitidis/aislamiento & purificación , Faringitis/microbiología , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers and the predominant cause of cancer-related death in the world. The low accuracy of early detection techniques and high risk of relapse greatly contribute to poor prognosis. An accurate clinical tool that can assist in diagnosis and surveillance is urgently needed. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is free DNA shed from tumor cells and isolated from peripheral blood. The genomic profiles of ctDNA have been shown to closely match those of the corresponding tumors. With the development of approaches with high sensitivity and specificity, ctDNA plays a vital role in the management of lung cancer as a result of its reproducible, non-invasive, and easy-to-obtain characteristics. However, most previous studies have focused on advanced lung cancer. Few studies have investigated ctDNA in the early stages of the disease. In this review, we focus on ctDNA obtained from patients in the early stage of lung cancer, provide a summary of the related literature to date, and describe the main approaches to ctDNA and the clinical applications.
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Biomarcadores de Tumor/sangre , ADN Tumoral Circulante/sangre , Neoplasias Pulmonares/sangre , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/sangre , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/patología , Estadificación de NeoplasiasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The use of video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) in the treatment of thymoma is becoming more and more common. The aim of this study was to evaluate safety and effectiveness of thoracoscopic treatment of thymoma and, more importantly, to report long-term follow-up results of a large single-center cohort. METHODS: A retrospective review of a prospective database was performed. In total, 150 patients who underwent VATS resection for thymoma at Peking University People's Hospital from April 2001 to November 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: Average operation time was 140.1±54.2 min, median blood loss was 50 mL (range, 10-700 mL), median post-operative drainage time was 3 days (range, 1-11 days), and median length of post-op stay was 5 days (range, 2-20 days); 134 patients (89.3%) were followed up successfully. Median follow-up was 59.5 months (range, 2-187 months). Five- and 10-year recurrence free survival (RFS) rates of entire group were 96.5% and 94.4%, respectively; 5- and 10-year RFS rates for Masaoka stages I + II were 98.1% and 98.1%, respectively; 5- and 6-year RFS rates for Masaoka stage III were 90% and 60%, respectively. One case of recurrence in five Masaoka stage IV patients was observed, and 4-year RFS was 80%. Multivariable analysis indicated that recurrence tended to occur in Masaoka stages III + IV patients (P=0.037, HR =12.69, 95% CI: 1.17-138.22) and older patients had a lower risk of recurrence (P=0.029, HR =0.87, 95% CI: 0.77-0.99). Myasthenia gravis (MG) presented in 44 patients (29.3%), of which 36 patients (81.8%) were followed up. Nine patients achieved complete remission, and 19 patients had symptom improvement after surgery. Overall response rate of MG was 77.8% (28/36). CONCLUSIONS: VATS was a safe and effective procedure for treatment of thymomas with satisfactory prognosis. MG with thymoma treated by VATS had comparable neurological outcome to that associated with the trans-sternal approach.
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OBJECTIVES: Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) is the most common curable STI worldwide and is associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition and serious reproductive morbidities. The prevalence of TV infection is very low in Australian cities, and this is thought to be at least partly due to incidental detection and treatment of TV in women participating in the cervical cytology screening programme. In 2017, the national cervical screening programme will transition to a new model based on testing for high-risk (HR) human papillomavirus (HPV), with a reduced frequency and commencement at an older age. We model the potential impact of this transition on TV prevalence in Australia. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of TV in the general population and used to evaluate scenarios that capture the switch from cytology-based screening to HR HPV testing. Under these scenarios, individuals with asymptomatic TV who test negative for HR HPV will remain undiagnosed and untreated. We estimate the change in TV prevalence expected to occur due to the switch from cytology to HR HPV testing and changes to the frequency and age at commencement of screening. RESULTS: Our results suggest that with the transition to HR HPV testing, TV prevalence may increase from the current ~0.4% to 2.8% within 20 years if TV testing coverage is not increased and HR HPV prevalence does not decline further. If HR HPV prevalence continues to decline at its current rate with ongoing vaccination, TV prevalence is predicted to increase to 3.0% within this time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling suggests that in a setting like Australia, where TV can be detected incidentally through cytology-based cervical screening, a transition to HPV testing is likely to result in increasing TV prevalence over time unless additional measures are implemented to increase TV testing and treatment.
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Colposcopía , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Pruebas de ADN del Papillomavirus Humano/estadística & datos numéricos , Derivación y Consulta , Vaginitis por Trichomonas/diagnóstico , Trichomonas vaginalis/citología , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Australia , Citodiagnóstico , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalencia , Población Urbana , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Since licensure of hepatitis A vaccine in Australia in 1994, infection rates have declined to record lows. Cross-sectional serosurveys conducted over this period meanwhile have shown rising population immunity, particularly in young to middle-aged Australians. In this study, we performed a retrospective birth cohort analysis to estimate the contributions of infection, migration and vaccination towards increased levels of age specific hepatitis A seroprevalence in Australia. When aggregated across age, we find that two-thirds of the increase in population seropositivity (67.04%) between 1994 and 2008 was due to vaccination, just under one-third due to migration, with a negligible contribution from infection (<1%). Comparisons with other data sources reflecting vaccine uptake suggest the magnitude of this effect is realistic. We suggest that these results primarily relate to opportunistic vaccination and indicate the level of population immunity achievable through opportunistic programs providing further evidence for policy considerations around universal hepatitis A vaccine recommendations.
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Hepatitis A/inmunología , Hepatitis A/prevención & control , Vacunación/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Australia , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Hepatitis A/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The importation of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) strains from overseas is believed to be the main source of antimicrobial resistance in Australia. With recent sporadic cases of ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhoea reported in Australia and elsewhere, we sought to model the potential for imported NG strains to persist in the men who have sex with men (MSM) population in Australia. METHODS: We developed an individual-based model to simulate the transmission of NG in a population of urban MSM, and used this model to investigate factors contributing to the probability that an imported NG strain will persist. RESULTS: The probability of the imported NG strain persisting as the result of a single importation event is less than 1%, but the probability increases to 1% if the imported NG strain is resistant to treatment, and further increases to 3.1% if the imported NG strain can also form mixed infections with the local NG strain. The probability of the imported NG strain persisting increases to 4.4% if there are at least three importation events per month within a 1-year period. CONCLUSION: The imported NG strain is unlikely to persist as a result of a single importation event. However, the probability of persistence increases if the imported NG strain is resistant to treatment, can form mixed infections with the local NG strain or there are frequent importation events. Identification of the factors that determine the likelihood of persistence of an imported NG strain could contribute to our capacity to respond appropriately and in a timely fashion.
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Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Gonorrea/microbiología , Modelos Biológicos , Faringe/microbiología , Recto/microbiología , Uretra/microbiología , Adulto , Australia , Gonorrea/transmisión , Conocimientos, Actitudes y Práctica en Salud , Homosexualidad Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Factores de Riesgo , Parejas SexualesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Surveillance for gonorrhoea antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromised by a move away from culture-based testing in favour of more convenient nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) tests. We assessed the potential benefit of a molecular resistance test in terms of the timeliness of detection of gonorrhoea AMR. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An individual-based mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of gonorrhoea in a remote Indigenous population in Australia. We estimated the impact of the molecular test on the time delay between first importation and the first confirmation that the prevalence of gonorrhoea AMR (resistance proportion) has breached the WHO-recommended 5% threshold (when a change in antibiotic should occur). In the remote setting evaluated in this study, the model predicts that when culture is the only available means of testing for AMR, the breach will only be detected when the actual prevalence of AMR in the population has already reached 8 - 18%, with an associated delay of ~43 - 69 months between first importation and detection. With the addition of a molecular resistance test, the number of samples for which AMR can be determined increases facilitating earlier detection at a lower resistance proportion. For the best case scenario, where AMR can be determined for all diagnostic samples, the alert would be triggered at least 8 months earlier than using culture alone and the resistance proportion will have only slightly exceeded the 5% notification threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular tests have the potential to provide more timely warning of the emergence of gonorrhoea AMR. This in turn will facilitate earlier treatment switching and more targeted treatment, which has the potential to reduce the population impact of gonorrhoea AMR.
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Antibacterianos/farmacología , Gonorrea/tratamiento farmacológico , Gonorrea/etnología , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/efectos de los fármacos , Penicilinas/farmacología , Adolescente , Adulto , Australia/epidemiología , Técnicas de Tipificación Bacteriana , Notificación de Enfermedades , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Femenino , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Gonorrea/transmisión , Humanos , Masculino , Pruebas de Sensibilidad Microbiana , Nativos de Hawái y Otras Islas del Pacífico , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/genética , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/crecimiento & desarrollo , Resistencia a las Penicilinas , Grupos de Población , PrevalenciaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To observe the effects of acupuncture on motility of jejunum and distal colon at different acupoints on normal Kunming mice. METHODS: The jejunal and colorectal motor activity of forty Kunming mice were recorded by the intra-intestinal capsule. The capsules contained with distilled water were placed into the cavities of jejunum and distal colon. The changes of bowel were compared with the background activity recorded before any stimulation. The chosen acupoints were as follows: Zusanli (ST 36) on the lower legs, Tianshu (ST 25) on the mid-lower abdomen. RESULTS: Manual acupuncture (MA) at Zusanli (ST 36) significantly promoted the motility of jejunum and distal colon (manifested as increased change rate of average amplitude and increased change rate of mean area under the contractile curve) of normal Kunming mice (P < 0.01). MA at Tianshu (ST 25) significantly inhibited the motility of jejunum (manifested as decreased change rate of average amplitude, decreased change rate of mean area under the contractile curve, and the reduced frequency) of normal Kunming mice (P < 0.01), while significantly increased the distal colonic motility (manifested as increased amplitude and increased mean area under the contractile curve) of normal Kunming mice (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: MA at specific acupoints [Zusanli (ST 36), Tianshu (ST 25)] has different effects on the motility of jejunum and distal colon, which might involve the segmental innervations of the related nerve.
Asunto(s)
Terapia por Acupuntura , Colon/fisiología , Motilidad Gastrointestinal , Yeyuno/fisiología , Puntos de Acupuntura , Animales , Femenino , Masculino , RatonesRESUMEN
High prevalence of trichomoniasis is reported for many remote Indigenous communities despite intensive screening and treatment programs. Mathematical modelling has previously been used to show that point-of-care (POC) testing for gonorrhoea and chlamydia has the potential to increase the impact of screening in reducing the prevalence of these sexually transmissible infections. The study was extended to estimate the impact of a rapid POC test for trichomoniasis. The results suggest that POC testing in place of conventional testing will also provide additional reductions in trichomoniasis prevalence. However, more emphasis should be placed on testing for trichomoniasis in older women due to the high prevalence observed in this group.