Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink.

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but the nature and magnitude of its variability remains uncertain and debated. Estimates based on observations suggest substantial variability that is not reproduced by process-based ocean models, with increasingly divergent estimates over the past decade. We examine potential constraints on the nature and magnitude of climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from observation-based air-sea O2 fluxes. On interannual time scales, the variability in the air-sea fluxes of CO2 and O2 estimated from observations is consistent across the two species and positively correlated with the variability simulated by ocean models. Our analysis suggests that variations in ocean ventilation related to the Southern Annular Mode are responsible for this interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the existence of significant variability in the air-sea CO2 flux estimated from observations also tends to be supported by observation-based estimates of O2 flux variability. However, the large decadal variability in air-sea CO2 flux is absent from ocean models. Our analysis suggests that issues in representing the balance between the thermal and non-thermal components of the CO2 sink and/or insufficient variability in mode water formation might contribute to the lack of decadal variability in the current generation of ocean models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

The European carbon cycle response to heat and drought as seen from atmospheric CO2 data for 1999-2018.

In 2018, central and northern parts of Europe experienced heat and drought conditions over many months from spring to autumn, strongly affecting both natural ecosystems and crops. Besides their impact on nature and society, events like this can be used to study the impact of climate variations on the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is an important determinant of the future climate trajectory. Here, variations in the regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere were quantified from measurements of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions. Over Europe, several observational records have been maintained since at least 1999, giving us the opportunity to assess the 2018 anomaly in the context of at least two decades of variations, including the strong climate anomaly in 2003. In addition to an atmospheric inversion with temporally explicitly estimated anomalies, we use an inversion based on empirical statistical relations between anomalies in the local NEE and anomalies in local climate conditions. For our analysis period 1999-2018, we find that higher-than-usual NEE in hot and dry summers may tend to arise in Central Europe from enhanced ecosystem respiration due to the elevated temperatures, and in Southern Europe from reduced photosynthesis due to the reduced water availability. Despite concerns in the literature, the level of agreement between regression-based NEE anomalies and temporally explicitly estimated anomalies indicates that the atmospheric CO2 measurements from the relatively dense European station network do provide information about the year-to-year variations of Europe's carbon sources and sinks, at least in summer. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition.

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) - levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases - as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth's surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result - which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 - leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data.

Retraction Note: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition.

This Article has been retracted; see accompanying Retraction Note.

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition.

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system1. During recent decades, ocean heat uptake has been quantified by using hydrographic temperature measurements and data from the Argo float program, which expanded its coverage after 20072,3. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainties resulting from sparse coverage, especially before 20074,5. Here we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2)-levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases-as a whole-ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.33 ± 0.20  × 1022 joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.83 ± 0.11 watts per square metre of Earth's surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result-which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 19916-suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases7 and the thermal component of sea-level rise8.

History of El Niño impacts on the global carbon cycle 1957-2017: a quantification from atmospheric CO2 data.

Interannual variations in the large-scale net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere were estimated for 1957-2017 from sustained measurements of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios. As the observations are sparse in the early decades, available records were combined into a 'quasi-homogeneous' dataset based on similarity in their signals, to minimize spurious variations from beginning or ending data records. During El Niño events, CO2 is anomalously released from the tropical band, and a few months later also in the northern extratropical band. This behaviour can approximately be represented by a linear relationship of the NEE anomalies and local air temperature anomalies, with sensitivity coefficients depending on geographical location and season. The apparent climate sensitivity of global total NEE against variations in pan-tropically averaged annual air temperature slowly changed over time during the 1957-2017 period, first increasing (though less strongly than in previous studies) but then decreasing again. However, only part of this change can be attributed to actual changes in local physiological or ecosystem processes, the rest probably arising from shifts in the geographical area of dominating temperature variations.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Defining sepsis on the wards: results of a multi-centre point-prevalence study comparing two sepsis definitions.

Our aim was to prospectively determine the predictive capabilities of SEPSIS-1 and SEPSIS-3 definitions in the emergency departments and general wards. Patients with National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of 3 or above and suspected or proven infection were enrolled over a 24-h period in 13 Welsh hospitals. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 30 days. Out of the 5422 patients screened, 431 fulfilled inclusion criteria and 380 (88%) were recruited. Using the SEPSIS-1 definition, 212 patients had sepsis. When using the SEPSIS-3 definitions with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2, there were 272 septic patients, whereas with quickSOFA score ≥ 2, 50 patients were identified. For the prediction of primary outcome, SEPSIS-1 criteria had a sensitivity (95%CI) of 65% (54-75%) and specificity of 47% (41-53%); SEPSIS-3 criteria had a sensitivity of 86% (76-92%) and specificity of 32% (27-38%). SEPSIS-3 and SEPSIS-1 definitions were associated with a hazard ratio (95%CI) 2.7 (1.5-5.6) and 1.6 (1.3-2.5), respectively. Scoring system discrimination evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves was highest for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.69 (95%CI 0.63-0.76)), followed by NEWS (0.58 (0.51-0.66)) (p < 0.001). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (0.55 (0.49-0.61)) and quickSOFA score (0.56 (0.49-0.64)) could not predict outcome. The SEPSIS-3 definition identified patients with the highest risk. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and NEWS were better predictors of poor outcome. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score appeared to be the best tool for identifying patients with high risk of death and sepsis-induced organ dysfunction.

Specific ion and buffer effects on protein-protein interactions of a monoclonal antibody.

Better predictive ability of salt and buffer effects on protein-protein interactions requires separating out contributions due to ionic screening, protein charge neutralization by ion binding, and salting-in(out) behavior. We have carried out a systematic study by measuring protein-protein interactions for a monoclonal antibody over an ionic strength range of 25 to 525 mM at 4 pH values (5, 6.5, 8, and 9) in solutions containing sodium chloride, calcium chloride, sodium sulfate, or sodium thiocyante. The salt ions are chosen so as to represent a range of affinities for protein charged and noncharged groups. The results are compared to effects of various buffers including acetate, citrate, phosphate, histidine, succinate, or tris. In low ionic strength solutions, anion binding affinity is reflected by the ability to reduce protein-protein repulsion, which follows the order thiocyanate > sulfate > chloride. The sulfate specific effect is screened at the same ionic strength required to screen the pH dependence of protein-protein interactions indicating sulfate binding only neutralizes protein charged groups. Thiocyanate specific effects occur over a larger ionic strength range reflecting adsorption to charged and noncharged regions of the protein. The latter leads to salting-in behavior and, at low pH, a nonmonotonic interaction profile with respect to sodium thiocyanate concentration. The effects of thiocyanate can not be rationalized in terms of only neutralizing double layer forces indicating the presence of an additional short-ranged protein-protein attraction at moderate ionic strength. Conversely, buffer specific effects can be explained through a charge neutralization mechanism, where buffers with greater valency are more effective at reducing double layer forces at low pH. Citrate binding at pH 6.5 leads to protein charge inversion and the formation of attractive electrostatic interactions. Throughout the report, we highlight similarities in the measured protein-protein interaction profiles with previous studies of globular proteins and of antibodies providing evidence that the behavior will be common to other protein systems.

The role of electrostatics in protein-protein interactions of a monoclonal antibody.

Understanding how protein-protein interactions depend on the choice of buffer, salt, ionic strength, and pH is needed to have better control over protein solution behavior. Here, we have characterized the pH and ionic strength dependence of protein-protein interactions in terms of an interaction parameter kD obtained from dynamic light scattering and the osmotic second virial coefficient B22 measured by static light scattering. A simplified protein-protein interaction model based on a Baxter adhesive potential and an electric double layer force is used to separate out the contributions of longer-ranged electrostatic interactions from short-ranged attractive forces. The ionic strength dependence of protein-protein interactions for solutions at pH 6.5 and below can be accurately captured using a Deryaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) potential to describe the double layer forces. In solutions at pH 9, attractive electrostatics occur over the ionic strength range of 5-275 mM. At intermediate pH values (7.25 to 8.5), there is a crossover effect characterized by a nonmonotonic ionic strength dependence of protein-protein interactions, which can be rationalized by the competing effects of long-ranged repulsive double layer forces at low ionic strength and a shorter ranged electrostatic attraction, which dominates above a critical ionic strength. The change of interactions from repulsive to attractive indicates a concomitant change in the angular dependence of protein-protein interaction from isotropic to anisotropic. In the second part of the paper, we show how the Baxter adhesive potential can be used to predict values of kD from fitting to B22 measurements, thus providing a molecular basis for the linear correlation between the two protein-protein interaction parameters.

Enhanced seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern ecosystems since 1960.

Seasonal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Northern Hemisphere have increased since the 1950s, but sparse observations have prevented a clear assessment of the patterns of long-term change and the underlying mechanisms. We compare recent aircraft-based observations of CO2 above the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans to earlier data from 1958 to 1961 and find that the seasonal amplitude at altitudes of 3 to 6 km increased by 50% for 45° to 90°N but by less than 25% for 10° to 45°N. An increase of 30 to 60% in the seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern extratropical land ecosystems, focused on boreal forests, is implicated, substantially more than simulated by current land ecosystem models. The observations appear to signal large ecological changes in northern forests and a major shift in the global carbon cycle.

Three mouse models of muscular dystrophy: the natural history of strength and fatigue in dystrophin-, dystrophin/utrophin-, and laminin alpha2-deficient mice.

To optimize and evaluate treatments for muscular dystrophy, it is important to know the natural history of the disease in the absence of therapeutic intervention. Here we characterized disease progression of three mutant mouse strains of muscular dystrophy: mdx mice, which lack dystrophin; mdx:utrn-/- mice, which also lack utrophin; and dy/dy mice, which are deficient in laminin alpha2. Normal mice show a marked increase in forelimb strength over the first 10 weeks of life and little fatigue (<5%) over five consecutive strength trials. Mdx and mdx:utrn-/- mice demonstrate less strength then normal mice and approximately 40% fatigue at each age. Mdx mice become obese but mdx:utrn-/- mice do not. Dy/dy mice remain small and are much weaker than mdx and mdx:utrn-/- mice at all ages even when normalized to weight; however, they show only minimal fatigue (10%). This work demonstrates a distinct pattern of disease progression in each model and provides a foundation for assessing strategies for improving strength in each model.

Palaeoceanography. Antarctic stratification and glacial CO2.

One way of accounting for lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during Pleistocene glacial periods is by invoking the Antarctic stratification hypothesis, which links the reduction in CO2 to greater stratification of ocean surface waters around Antarctica. As discussed by Sigman and Boyle, this hypothesis assumes that increased stratification in the Antarctic zone (Fig. 1) was associated with reduced upwelling of deep waters around Antarctica, thereby allowing CO2 outgassing to be suppressed by biological production while also allowing biological production to decline, which is consistent with Antarctic sediment records. We point out here, however, that the response of ocean eddies to increased Antarctic stratification can be expected to increase, rather than reduce, the upwelling rate of deep waters around Antarctica. The stratification hypothesis may have difficulty in accommodating eddy feedbacks on upwelling within the constraints imposed by reconstructions of winds and Antarctic-zone productivity in glacial periods.