Predictive accuracy of risk prediction models for recurrence, metastasis and survival for early-stage cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic models for melanoma survival, recurrence and metastasis among American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I and II patients postsurgery; and evaluate model performance, including overall survival (OS) prediction. DESIGN: Systematic review and narrative synthesis. DATA SOURCES: Searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index and grey literature sources including cancer and guideline websites from 2000 to September 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Included studies on risk prediction models for stage I and II melanoma in adults ≥18 years. Outcomes included OS, recurrence, metastases and model performance. No language or country of publication restrictions were applied. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias using the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist and the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Heterogeneous predictors prevented statistical synthesis. RESULTS: From 28 967 records, 15 studies reporting 20 models were included; 8 (stage I), 2 (stage II), 7 (stages I-II) and 7 (stages not reported), but were clearly applicable to early stages. Clinicopathological predictors per model ranged from 3-10. The most common were: ulceration, Breslow thickness/depth, sociodemographic status and site. Where reported, discriminatory values were ≥0.7. Calibration measures showed good matches between predicted and observed rates. None of the studies assessed clinical usefulness of the models. Risk of bias was high in eight models, unclear in nine and low in three. Seven models were internally and externally cross-validated, six models were externally validated and eight models were internally validated. CONCLUSIONS: All models are effective in their predictive performance, however the low quality of the evidence raises concern as to whether current follow-up recommendations following surgical treatment is adequate. Future models should incorporate biomarkers for improved accuracy. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018086784.

Economic evaluations of interventions to prevent and control health-care-associated infections: a systematic review.

Almost 9 million health-care-associated infections have been estimated to occur each year in European hospitals and long-term care facilities, and these lead to an increase in morbidity, mortality, bed occupancy, and duration of hospital stay. The aim of this systematic review was to review the cost-effectiveness of interventions to limit the spread of health-care-associated infections), framed by WHO infection prevention and control core components. The Embase, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment, Cinahl, Scopus, Pediatric Economic Database Evaluation, and Global Index Medicus databases, plus grey literature were searched for studies between Jan 1, 2009, and Aug 10, 2022. Studies were included if they reported interventions including hand hygiene, personal protective equipment, national-level or facility-level infection prevention and control programmes, education and training programmes, environmental cleaning, and surveillance. The British Medical Journal checklist was used to assess the quality of economic evaluations. 67 studies were included in the review. 25 studies evaluated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus outcomes. 31 studies evaluated screening strategies. The assessed studies that met the minimum quality criteria consisted of economic models. There was some evidence that hand hygiene, environmental cleaning, surveillance, and multimodal interventions were cost-effective. There were few or no studies investigating education and training, personal protective equipment or monitoring, and evaluation of interventions. This Review provides a map of cost-effectiveness data, so that policy makers and researchers can identify the relevant data and then assess the quality and generalisability for their setting.

Optimal Surveillance Strategies for Early-Stage Cutaneous Melanoma Post Primary Tumor Excision: An Economic Evaluation.

Background. Consensus on standardized active surveillance or follow-up care by clinicians is lacking leading to considerable variation in practice across countries. An important structural modelling consideration is that self-examination by patients and their partners can detect melanoma recurrence outside of active surveillance regimes. Objectives. To identify candidate melanoma surveillance strategies for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I disease and compare them with the current recommended practice in a cost-utility analysis framework. Methods. In consultation with UK clinical experts, a microsimulation model was built in TreeAge Pro 2019 R1.0 (Williamstown, MA, USA) to evaluate surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB melanoma patients separately. The model incorporated patient behaviors such as self-detection and emergency visits to examine suspicious lesions. A National Health Service (NHS) perspective was taken. Model input parameters were taken from the literature and where data were not available, local expert opinion was sought. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, one-way sensitivity analysis on pertinent parameters and value of information was performed. Results. In the base-case probabilistic sensitivity analysis, less intensive surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB had lower total lifetime costs than the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended strategy with similar effectiveness in terms of quality-adjusted life years and thereby likely to be cost-effective. Many strategies had similar effectiveness due to the relatively low chance of recurrence and the high rate of self-detection. Sensitivity and scenario analyses did not change these findings. Conclusions. Our model findings suggest that less resource intensive surveillance may be cost-effective compared with the current NICE surveillance guidelines. However, to advocate convincingly for changes, better evidence is required.

Optimal surveillance strategies for patients with stage 1 cutaneous melanoma post primary tumour excision: three systematic reviews and an economic model.

BACKGROUND: Malignant melanoma is the fifth most common cancer in the UK, with rates continuing to rise, resulting in considerable burden to patients and the NHS. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative follow-up strategies for stage IA and IB melanoma. REVIEW METHODS: Three systematic reviews were conducted. (1) The effectiveness of surveillance strategies. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk-of-Bias 2.0 tool. (2) Prediction models to stratify by risk of recurrence, metastases and survival. Model performance was assessed by study-reported measures of discrimination (e.g. D-statistic, Harrel's c-statistic), calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow 'goodness-of-fit' test) or overall performance (e.g. Brier score, R2). Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). (3) Diagnostic test accuracy of fine-needle biopsy and ultrasonography. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and overall survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Review data and data from elsewhere were used to model the cost-effectiveness of alternative surveillance strategies and the value of further research. RESULTS: (1) The surveillance review included one randomised controlled trial. There was no evidence of a difference in new primary or recurrence detected (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 1.31). Risk of bias was considered to be of some concern. Certainty of the evidence was low. (2) Eleven risk prediction models were identified. Discrimination measures were reported for six models, with the area under the operating curve ranging from 0.59 to 0.88. Three models reported calibration measures, with coefficients of ≥ 0.88. Overall performance was reported by two models. In one, the Brier score was slightly better than the American Joint Committee on Cancer scheme score. The other reported an R2 of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.49). All studies were judged to have a high risk of bias. (3) The diagnostic test accuracy review identified two studies. One study considered fine-needle biopsy and the other considered ultrasonography. The sensitivity and specificity for fine-needle biopsy were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97), respectively. For ultrasonography, sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 1.00) and 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99), respectively. For the reference standards and flow and timing domains, the risk of bias was rated as being high for both studies. The cost-effectiveness results suggest that, over a lifetime, less intensive surveillance than recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence might be worthwhile. There was considerable uncertainty. Improving the diagnostic performance of cancer nurse specialists and introducing a risk prediction tool could be promising. Further research on transition probabilities between different stages of melanoma and on improving diagnostic accuracy would be of most value. LIMITATIONS: Overall, few data of limited quality were available, and these related to earlier versions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. Consequently, there was considerable uncertainty in the economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite adoption of rigorous methods, too few data are available to justify changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations on surveillance. However, alternative strategies warrant further research, specifically on improving estimates of incidence, progression of recurrent disease; diagnostic accuracy and health-related quality of life; developing and evaluating risk stratification tools; and understanding patient preferences. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018086784. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol 25, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Malignant melanoma is the deadliest of skin cancers; in the UK, > 2500 people die from it every year. Initially, the cancer is removed surgically, which cures it for most people, but, for some, the cancer returns. For this reason, after a melanoma is removed, patients are followed up to see if the melanoma reoccurs or if new melanomas have developed. It is felt that early cancer detection improves the chance of future treatment working. A key question is how best to follow up patients after initial melanoma surgery. This study concentrates on the earliest stage of melanoma (American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I), which accounts for more than 7 out of 10 of all melanoma diagnoses. The study also investigates if new ways of follow-up could be at least as good as current practice and a better use of NHS money. We systematically reviewed studies comparing different ways of organising follow-up, and then methods to identify those patients at high risk of developing a further melanoma and how good different tests are at detecting this cancer. We then compared different possible follow-up strategies. For each strategy, we considered its impact on quality and length of life, and how well it used NHS resources. We found little evidence to support a change in how follow-up should be organised currently. There were some ways of organising follow-up that might be better than current care, but further research is needed. We found that new research on whether or not follow-up should be performed by a cancer nurse specialist, rather than a dermatologist or surgeon, would be worthwhile. We also found that more research could be worthwhile on how frequently melanoma recurs and spreads, as well as how accurately a diagnosis of further cancer is made and how to identify those most at risk of further melanoma spread.

Roxadustat (FG-4592) treatment for anemia in dialysis-dependent (DD) and not dialysis-dependent (NDD) chronic kidney disease patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The effect of roxadustat (FG-4592) on individuals with chronic kidney diseases (CKD) patients receiving or not receiving the dialysis was unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of roxadustat for the treatment of anemia in patients who are dialysis dependent (DD) or dialysis independent (NDD) CKD. We performed a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing treatment with roxadustat versus placebo or epoetin alfa up to November 2019. We investigated the efficacy of roxadustat in the levels of hemoglobin and other clinical parameters in renal anemia in patients with NDD and DD-CKD. We estimated weighted-mean difference (WMD) using random effect models. We included six RCTs comprising 1001 patients of whom 70.6 % were treated with roxadustat and 294 controls. The control group for studies of NDD-CKD patients was placebo whereas an active control of epoetin-alfa was used in studies of DD-CKD patients. Median follow-up time was 8 weeks. All trials were industry-sponsored. Overall, roxadustat increased hemoglobin levels by 1.20 g/dl (95 % CI:0.66, 1.75,P < 0.0001,I2 = 99.3 %). Hemoglobin levels increased by 1.99 g/dl in NDD-CKD patients versus placebo and 0.52 g/dl in DD-CKD patients versus epoetin-alfa. Roxadustat was associated with a decrease the levels of hepcidin by -49.3 ng/dl (-38.5 ng/dl in NDD patients versus placebo and -27.7 ng/dl in DD patients versus epoetin alfa), a decrease in ferritin of -49.7 µmol/l (-52.2 µmol/l in NDD patients versus placebo and -7.3 µmol/l in DD patients versus epoetin alfa), and increase in total iron-binding capacity of 32.2 µmol/l (14.1 µmol/l in NDD patients versus placebo and 13.6 µmol/l in DD patients versus epoetin alfa). The percentage change in the transferrin saturation levels was -2.07 % (-6%, NDD patients versus placebo, and +3.7 % in DD patients versus epoetin alfa) in anemia associated CKD patients. This review found roxadustast increases the levels of hemoglobin, serum transferrin, intestinal iron absorption, and reduces hepcidin in both NDD and DD-CKD patients. Safety data is still emerging.

Waist Circumference and Risk of Liver Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of over 2 Million Cohort Study Participants.

PURPOSE: Liver cancer is the sixth most common type of cancer worldwide, and waist circumference (WC) is associated with its risk beyond body mass index (BMI). This dose-response meta-analysis was performed to investigate the association between WC and the risk of incident liver cancer using prospective cohort studies. METHODS: A comprehensive systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE/PubMed, Web of Science databases, Scopus, and Coch-rane from inception to May 2019. Studies with retrospective or prospective cohort design that reported hazard ratio (HR), risk ratio, or odds ratio, and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for liver cancer based on WC categories were included in this meta-analysis. Combined HRs with 95% CIs was estimated by DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models. RESULTS: Associations between WC and liver cancer were reported in 5 articles with 2,547,188 participants. All studies were published between 2013 and 2019. Pooled results showed a strong significant association with minimum heterogeneity between WC and risk of liver cancer (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.38-1.83, pheterogeneity = 0.42: I2 = 0%). Moreover, a dose-response model indicated a significant positive association between WC and risk of liver cancer (exp(b) = 1.018, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis highlights WC as a significant risk factor related to the incidence of liver cancer.

The effect of psyllium consumption on weight, body mass index, lipid profile, and glucose metabolism in diabetic patients: A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Water-soluble dietary fibers have been shown to improve lipid profile and glucose metabolism in diabetes. The aim of this study was to review the effects of psyllium consumption on weight, body mass index, lipid profiles, and glucose metabolism in diabetic patients in randomized controlled trials. A comprehensive systematic search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Sciences, Cochrane, and Scopus by two independent researchers up to August 2019 without any time and language restrictions. The DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model method performed to calculate the pooled results. Inclusion criteria were randomized controlled trial design, adult subjects, and studies reporting the mean differences with the 95% confidence interval for outcome. Eight studies containing nine arms with 395 participants were identified and included in final analysis. Combined results found a significant reduction in triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, fasting blood sugar, and hemoglobin A1c following psyllium consumption (weighted mean differences [WMD]: -19.18 mg/dl, 95% CI [-31.76, -6.60], I2 = 98%), (WMD: -8.96 mg/dl, 95% CI [-13.39, -4.52], I2 = 97%), (WMD: -31.71 ml/dl, 95% CI [-50.04, -13.38], I2 = 97%), and (WMD: -0.91%, 95% CI [-1.31, -0.51], I2 = 99%), respectively. There was no significant change in high-density lipoprotein, body mass index, cholesterol, and weight. In conclusion, the results demonstrated a significant reduction in triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, fasting blood sugar, and hemoglobin A1c by psyllium intervention among diabetic patients.

Association of aspirin therapy with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review and dose-response analysis of cohort studies with 2.5 million participants.

Although aspirin is commonly used for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, evidence from research has shown that these beneficial effects might extend to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This dose-response analysis was performed to investigate the association between aspirin use and risk of HCC. A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE/PubMed, SCOPUS, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases from inception up to 29th October 2019. DerSimonian and Laird Random-effects model was used to estimate pooled hazard ratios (HRs) from included studies. Overall, eight studies containing 2,604,319 participants evaluating the association between aspirin use and risk of HCC were uncovered and included in the present meta-analysis. Pooled results of included studies showed a significant reduction in risk of HCC in participants who used aspirin (HR 0.59, 95 % CI 0.47-0.75, Pheterogeneity = 0.001, I2 = 90 %). In total, 13,636 cases of HCC detected during the follow-up period of these studies. Furthermore, linear dose-response model showed an significant inverse association between aspirin dose and risk of HCC (exp (b) = 0.994, p < 0.001), while non-linear dose-response analysis revealed an even more robust association (Coef1=-0.008, p1 = 0.04, Coef2 = 0.033, p2 = 0.13). This systematic review and dose-response analysis identified significant inverse relation between aspirin and risk of HCC using both linear and non-linear models.

Self-care behaviors of adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Greece.

The purpose of this study was to examine self-care behaviors of adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus living in the Metropolitan Area of Thessaloniki in Northern Greece. The Summary of Diabetes Self-Care behaviors measurement was administered to 215 patients, out of which 177 were eligible to participate (87 males). Patients, aged 30 years or more, were recruited through a university hospital day-clinic. Older patients (>65 years), as well as those with "higher educational level" did not distribute their daily carbohydrate intake equally. Nevertheless, they were more likely to adapt to their physician's recommendations regarding medication and to regularly perform suggested blood glucose checking. Exercise patterns were more often found for higher educated, earlier diagnosed males. Younger patients were less likely to follow their healthcare professional's recommendations, regarding diet, medication intake, blood glucose checking, foot care and exercise compared to older patients. These results pose a higher risk for complications and morbidity in younger patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, who most possibly will require intensive treatment in the future.