Effect of Peg-IFN on the viral kinetics of patients with HDV infection treated with bulevirtide.

Background & Aims: Bulevirtide is a first-in-class entry inhibitor antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis D. The viral kinetics during bulevirtide therapy and the effect of combining bulevirtide with pegylated-interferon (Peg-IFN) are unknown. Methods: We used mathematical modelling to analyze the viral kinetics in two French observational cohorts of 183 patients receiving bulevirtide with or without Peg-IFN for 48 weeks. Results: The efficacy of bulevirtide in blocking cell infection was estimated to 90.3%, whereas Peg-IFN blocked viral production with an efficacy of 92.4%, albeit with large inter-individual variabilities. The addition of Peg-IFN to bulevirtide was associated with a more rapid virological decline, with a rate of virological response (>2 log of decline or undetectability) at week 48 of 86.9% (95% prediction interval [PI] = [79.7-95.0]), compared with 56.1% (95% PI = [46.4-66.7]) with bulevirtide only. The model was also used to predict the probability to achieve a cure of viral infection, with a rate of 8.8% (95% PI = [3.5-13.2]) with bulevirtide compared with 18.8% (95% PI = [11.6-29.0]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Mathematical modelling suggests that after 144 weeks of treatment, the rates of viral cure could be 42.1% (95% PI = [33.3-52.6]) with bulevirtide and 66.7% (95% PI = [56.5-76.8]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Conclusions: In this analysis of real-world data, Peg-IFN strongly enhanced the kinetics of viral decline in patients treated with bulevirtide. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to assess the virological and clinical benefit of this combination, and to identify predictors of poor response to treatment. Impact and implications: Bulevirtide has been approved for chronic HDV infection by regulatory agencies in Europe based on its good safety profile and rapid virological response after treatment initiation, but the optimal duration of treatment and the chance to achieve a sustained virological response remain unknown. The results presented in this study have a high impact for clinicians and investigators as they provide important knowledge on the long-term virological benefits of a combination of Peg-IFN and bulevirtide in patients with CHD. Clinical trials are now warranted to confirm those predictions.

Faecal proteomics links neutrophil degranulation with mortality in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) have a high mortality. Alcohol exacerbates liver damage by inducing gut dysbiosis, bacterial translocation and inflammation, which is characterised by increased numbers of circulating and hepatic neutrophils. DESIGN: In this study, we performed tandem mass tag (TMT) proteomics to analyse proteins in the faeces of controls (n=19), patients with alcohol-use disorder (AUD; n=20) and AH (n=80) from a multicentre cohort (InTeam). To identify protein groups that are disproportionately represented, we conducted over-representation analysis using Reactome pathway analysis and Gene Ontology to determine the proteins with the most significant impact. A faecal biomarker and its prognostic effect were validated by ELISA in faecal samples from patients with AH (n=70), who were recruited in a second and independent multicentre cohort (AlcHepNet). RESULT: Faecal proteomic profiles were overall significantly different between controls, patients with AUD and AH (principal component analysis p=0.001, dissimilarity index calculated by the method of Bray-Curtis). Proteins that showed notable differences across all three groups and displayed a progressive increase in accordance with the severity of alcohol-associated liver disease were predominantly those located in neutrophil granules. Over-representation and Reactome analyses confirmed that differentially regulated proteins are part of granules in neutrophils and the neutrophil degranulation pathway. Myeloperoxidase (MPO), the marker protein of neutrophil granules, correlates with disease severity and predicts 60-day mortality. Using an independent validation cohort, we confirmed that faecal MPO levels can predict short-term survival at 60 days. CONCLUSIONS: We found an increased abundance of faecal proteins linked to neutrophil degranulation in patients with AH, which is predictive of short-term survival and could serve as a prognostic non-invasive marker.

Relationship between updated MELD and prognosis in alcohol-associated hepatitis: Opportunities for more efficient trial design.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is associated with significant mortality. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict short-term mortality and aid in treatment decisions. MELD is frequently updated in the course of AH. However, once the most updated MELD is known, it is uncertain if previous ones still have prognostic value, which might be relevant for transplant allocation and trial design. We aimed to investigate the predictive performance of updated MELDs in a prospectively collected cohort of patients with AH by the InTeam consortium. METHODS: Three hundred seven patients (with 859 MELD values within 60 d of admission) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The main endpoint was time to death or transplant up to 90 days. We used a joint model approach to assess the predictive value of updated MELDs. RESULTS: Updated MELD measurements had a strong prognostic value for death/transplant (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14-1.27) (p < 0.0001). Previous MELD values did not add predictive value to the most current MELD. We also showed that MELD at day 28 (MELD28) had a significant predictive value for subsequent mortality/transplant in a landmark analysis (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12-1.23). We show that the use of an ordinal scale including death, transplant, and MELD28 as a trial outcome could substantially reduce the sample size required to demonstrate short-term benefit of an intervention. CONCLUSION: We show that updated MELDs during the trajectory of AH predict subsequent mortality or the need for transplant. MELD28 inclusion in an ordinal outcome (together with death or transplant) could increase the efficiency of randomized controlled trials.

Long-term outcome following liver transplantation of patients with ACLF grade 3.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Utility, a major principle for allocation in the context of transplantation, is questioned in patients with acute-on chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3) who undergo liver transplantation (LT). We aimed to explore long-term outcomes of patients included the three-center retrospective French experience published in 2017. METHOD: All patients with ACLF-3 (n=73) as well as their transplanted matched controlled with ACLF-2 (n=145), 1 (n=119) and no ACLF (n=292) that have participated in the princeps study published in 2017 were included. We explored 5- and 10-year patient and graft survivals, causes of death and their predictive factors. RESULTS: Median follow-up of patients ACLF-3 patients was 7.5 years. At LT, median MELD was 40. In patients with ACLF-3, 2, 1 and no ACLF, 5-year patients' survivals were respectively 72.6% vs. 69.7% vs. 76.4% vs. 77.0% (p=0.31). Ten-year patients' survival ACLF-3 was 56.8% and was not different other groups (p=0.37) Leading causes of death in ACLF-3 patients were infections (33.3%), and cardiovascular events (23.3%). After exclusion of early death, UCLA futility risk score, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF score were independently associated with 10-year patients' survival. Long-term grafts' survivals were not different across the groups. Clinical frailty scale and WHO performance status improved over time in patients alive after 5 years. CONCLUSION: 5- and 10-year patients' and grafts' survivals in ACLF-3 patients were not different from their controls. 5-year patients' survival is higher than that of the 50%-70% threshold defining the utility of liver graft. Efforts should focus on candidates' selection based on comorbidities as well as the prevention of infection and cardiovascular events standing as the main cause of death. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: While short-term outcomes following liver transplantation in the most severely ill cirrhotic patients (ACLF-3) are known, long-term data are limited, raising questions about the utility of graft allocation in the context of scarce medical resources. This study provides a favorable long-term update, confirming no differences in 5- and 10-year patient and graft survival following liver transplantation in ACLF-3 patients compared to matched ACLF-2, ACLF-1, and no-ACLF patients. The study highlights the risk of dying from infection and cardiovascular causes in the long-term and identifies scores including comorbidities evaluation, such as the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, as independently associated with long-term survival. Therefore, physicians should consider the cumulative burden of comorbidities when deciding to transplant these patients. Additionally, after transplantation, the study encourages mitigating infectious risk with tailored immunosuppressive regimens and managing tightly cardiovascular risk over time.

Treatment with bulevirtide in HIV-infected patients with chronic hepatitis D: ANRS HD EP01 BuleDelta and compassionate cohort.

Background & Aims: In France, bulevirtide (BLV) became available in September 2019 through an early access program to treat patients with HDV. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of BLV in patients with HIV and HDV coinfection. Methods: Patients received BLV 2 mg ± pegylated interferon-α (pegIFNα) according to the physician's decision. The primary endpoint (per-protocol analysis) was the virological response rate at Week 48, defined as the proportion of patients with undetectable serum HDV RNA or a HDV RNA decline >2 log10 IU/ml from baseline. Results: The characteristics of the 38 patients were as follows: 28 male, mean age 47.7 years, and mean baseline HDV RNA viral load 5.7 ± 1.2 log10 IU/ml. Median HIV viral load and mean CD4 count were 32 (30-65) copies/ml and 566 ± 307/mm3, respectively. Eight patients stopped treatment before Week 48. At Week 48, 10 of 19 patients (52.6%) in the 2 mg BLV group and five of seven patients (71.4%) in the 2 mg BLV + pegIFNɑ group had reached virological response (no HDV RNA available in four patients). At Week 48, seven of 19 patients in the 2 mg BLV group and three of six patients in the 2 mg BLV + pegIFNɑ group had a combined response (virological response and normal alanine aminotransferase level). Conclusions: Adults living with HIV coinfected with HDV can be treated by BLV with a virological response in more than 50% of patients. The combination of BLV and pegIFNɑ showed a strong virological response. Impact and implications: Bulevirtide is the only EMA-approved drug for HDV treatment, and we showed that it can be used in adults living with HIV, with an overall good tolerability. Bulevirtide induces a virological response in more than 50% of patients, suggesting that bulevirtide should be considered as a first-line therapy in this specific population. Bulevirtide in combination with pegIFNα could be used in patients without pegIFNα contraindication. No specific drug-drug interaction is reported. Bulevirtide is the only EMA-approved drug for HDV treatment, and we showed that it can be used in adults living with HIV, with an overall good tolerability. Bulevirtide induces a virological response in more than 50% of patients, suggesting that bulevirtide should be considered as a first-line therapy in this specific population. Bulevirtide in combination with pegIFNα could be used in patients without pegIFNα contraindication. No specific drug-drug interaction is reported. Bulevirtide is the only EMA-approved drug for HDV treatment, and we showed that it can be used in adults living with HIV, with an overall good tolerability. Bulevirtide induces a virological response in more than 50% of patients, suggesting that bulevirtide should be considered as a first-line therapy in this specific population. Bulevirtide in combination with pegIFNα could be used in patients without pegIFNα contraindication. No specific drug-drug interaction is reported.

A polygenic risk score for alcohol-associated cirrhosis among heavy drinkers with European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) based on results from genome-wide association studies offer the prospect of risk stratification for many common and complex diseases. We developed a PRS for alcohol-associated cirrhosis by comparing single-nucleotide polymorphisms among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) versus drinkers who did not have evidence of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. METHODS: Using a data-driven approach, a PRS for ALC was generated using a meta-genome-wide association study of ALC (N=4305) and an independent cohort of heavy drinkers with ALC and without significant liver disease (N=3037). It was validated in 2 additional independent cohorts from the UK Biobank with diagnosed ALC (N=467) and high-risk drinking controls (N=8981) and participants in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort with alcohol-associated liver disease (N=121) and controls without liver disease (N=3239). RESULTS: A 20-single-nucleotide polymorphisms PRS for ALC (PRSALC) was generated that stratified risk for ALC comparing the top and bottom deciles of PRS in the 2 validation cohorts (ORs: 2.83 [95% CI: 1.82 -4.39] in UK Biobank; 4.40 [1.56 -12.44] in Indiana Biobank Liver cohort). Furthermore, PRSALC improved the prediction of ALC risk when added to the models of clinically known predictors of ALC risk. It also stratified the risk for metabolic dysfunction -associated steatotic liver disease -cirrhosis (3.94 [2.23 -6.95]) in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort -based exploratory analysis. CONCLUSIONS: PRSALC incorporates 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, predicts increased risk for ALC, and improves risk stratification for ALC compared with the models that only include clinical risk factors. This new score has the potential for early detection of heavy drinking patients who are at high risk for ALC.

Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens. METHODS: Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years. RESULTS: Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Meta-analysis: Prevalence and impact of alcohol abstinence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Although alcohol abstinence may be an effective intervention for alcohol-associated cirrhosis, its association with prognosis has not been systematically assessed or quantified. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of alcohol abstinence, factors associated with alcohol abstinence and the impact of abstinence on morbidity and overall survival in people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase from inception to 15 April 2023 for prospective and retrospective cohort studies describing alcohol abstinence in people with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis. Meta-analysis of proportions for pooled estimates was performed. The method of inverse variance, employing a random-effects model, was used to pool the hazard ratio (HR) comparing outcomes of abstinent against non-abstinent individuals with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. RESULTS: We included 19 studies involving 18,833 people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The prevalence of alcohol abstinence was 53.8% (CI: 44.6%-62.7%). Over a mean follow-up duration of 48.6 months, individuals who continued to consume alcohol had significantly lower overall survival compared to those who were abstinent (HR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.506-0.738). These findings remained consistent in sensitivity/subgroup analysis for the presence of decompensation, study design and studies that assessed abstinence throughout follow-up. Alcohol abstinence was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (HR: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.473-0.792). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol abstinence is associated with substantial improvement in overall survival in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. However, only half of the individuals with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis are abstinent.

Serum aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity is associated with survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) have an altered fecal metabolome, including reduced microbiota-derived tryptophan metabolites, which function as ligands for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). The aim of this study was to assess serum AhR ligand activity in patients with AH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The study included 74 controls without AUD, 97 patients with AUD, and 330 patients with AH from 2 different multicenter cohorts (InTeam: 134, AlcHepNet: 196). Serum AhR activity was evaluated using an AhR reporter assay with HepG2-Lucia cells incubated with serum for 24 hours. Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with both controls (1.59 vs. 0.96-fold change, p < 0.001) and patients with AUD (1.59 vs. 0.93, p < 0.001). In both AH cohorts, patients with AhR activity ≥ 2.09 had significantly lower cumulative survival rates at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days compared to those with AhR activity < 2.09. When serum AhR activity was used to further stratify patients with severe AH, the cumulative 30, 60, 90, and 180-day survival rates for patients with severe AH and the AhR activity ≥ 2.09 group were all significantly lower than those with an AhR activity < 2.09 group. CONCLUSIONS: Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with controls and individuals with AUD, and this increased activity was associated with higher mortality. Consequently, serum AhR activity holds potential as a prognostic marker.

Time-of-day-dependent variation of the human liver transcriptome and metabolome is disrupted in MASLD.

Background & Aims: Liver homeostasis is ensured in part by time-of-day-dependent processes, many of them being paced by the molecular circadian clock. Liver functions are compromised in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and clock disruption increases susceptibility to MASLD progression in rodent models. We therefore investigated whether the time-of-day-dependent transcriptome and metabolome are significantly altered in human steatotic and MASH livers. Methods: Liver biopsies, collected within an 8 h-window from a carefully phenotyped cohort of 290 patients and histologically diagnosed to be either normal, steatotic or MASH hepatic tissues, were analyzed by RNA sequencing and unbiased metabolomic approaches. Time-of-day-dependent gene expression patterns and metabolomes were identified and compared between histologically normal, steatotic and MASH livers. Results: Herein, we provide a first-of-its-kind report of a daytime-resolved human liver transcriptome-metabolome and associated alterations in MASLD. Transcriptomic analysis showed a robustness of core molecular clock components in steatotic and MASH livers. It also revealed stage-specific, time-of-day-dependent alterations of hundreds of transcripts involved in cell-to-cell communication, intracellular signaling and metabolism. Similarly, rhythmic amino acid and lipid metabolomes were affected in pathological livers. Both TNFα and PPARγ signaling were predicted as important contributors to altered rhythmicity. Conclusion: MASLD progression to MASH perturbs time-of-day-dependent processes in human livers, while the differential expression of core molecular clock components is maintained. Impact and implications: This work characterizes the rhythmic patterns of the transcriptome and metabolome in the human liver. Using a cohort of well-phenotyped patients (n = 290) for whom the time-of-day at biopsy collection was known, we show that time-of-day variations observed in histologically normal livers are gradually perturbed in liver steatosis and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Importantly, these observations, albeit obtained across a restricted time window, provide further support for preclinical studies demonstrating alterations of rhythmic patterns in diseased livers. On a practical note, this study indicates the importance of considering time-of-day as a critical biological variable which may significantly affect data interpretation in animal and human studies of liver diseases.

External Validation of LCR1-LCR2, a Multivariable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Calculator, in a Multiethnic Cohort of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background and Aims: The liver cancer risk test (LCR1-LCR2) is a multianalyte blood test combining proteins involved in liver cell repair (apolipoprotein A1, haptoglobin), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk factors (gender, age, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase), a marker of fibrosis (alpha2-macroglobulin), and alpha-fetoprotein, a specific marker of HCC. The aim was to externally validate LCR1-LCR2 in hepatitis B. Methods: Preincluded patients were from the Hepather cohort, a multicenter, multiethnic prospective study in 6071 patients. The coprimary study outcome was the negative predictive value of LCR1-LCR2 at 5 years for the occurrence of HCC and survival without HCC according to the predetermined LCR1-LCR2 cutoffs, adjusted for risk covariables and for chronic hepatitis B treatment and quantified using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. A post hoc analysis compared the number of patients needed to screen one cancer by LCR1-LCR2 and PAGE-B. Results: A total of 3520 patients, 191 (5.4%) with cirrhosis, with at least 1 year of follow-up were included. A total of 76 HCCs occurred over a median (interquartile range) of 6.0 years (4.8-7.3) of follow-up. Among the 3367 patients with low-risk LCR1-LCR2, the 5-year negative predictive value was 99.3% (95% confidence interval = 99.0-99.6), with a significant Cox hazard ratio (6.4, 3.1-13.0; P < .001) obtained after adjustment for exposure to antivirals, age, gender, geographical origin, HBe-Ag status, alcohol consumption, and type-2 diabetes. LCR1-LCR2 outperformed PAGE-B for number of patients needed to screen mean (95% CI), 8.5 (3.2-8.1) vs 26.3 (17.5-38.5; P < .0001), respectively. Conclusion: The performance of LCR1-LCR2 to identify patients with chronic hepatitis B at very low risk of HCC at 5 years was externally validated. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.