Simultaneously implementing pathways for improving asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis care for hospitalized children: Protocol for a hybrid effectiveness-implementation, cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis are the top causes of childhood hospitalization in the United States, leading to over 350,000 hospitalizations and ≈$2 billion in costs annually. The majority of these hospitalizations occur in general/community hospitals. Poor guideline adoption by clinicians contributes to poor health outcomes for children hospitalized with these illnesses, including longer recovery time/hospital stay, higher rates of intensive care unit transfer, and increased risk of hospital readmission. A prior single-center study at a children's hospital tested a multicondition clinical pathway intervention (simultaneous implementation of multiple pathways for multiple pediatric conditions) and demonstrated improved clinician guideline adherence and patient health outcomes. This intervention has not yet been studied in community hospitals, which face unique implementation barriers. OBJECTIVE: To study the implementation and effectiveness of a multicondition pathway intervention for children hospitalized with asthma, pneumonia, or bronchiolitis in community hospitals. METHODS: We will conduct a pragmatic, hybrid effectiveness-implementation, cluster-randomized trial in community hospitals around the United States (1:1 randomization to intervention vs. wait-list control). Our primary outcome will be the adoption of 2-3 evidence-based practices for each condition over a sustained period of 2 years. Secondary outcomes include hospital length of stay, ICU transfer, and readmission. DISCUSSION: This hybrid trial will lead to a comprehensive understanding of how to pragmatically and sustainably implement a multicondition pathway intervention in community hospitals and an assessment of its effects. Enrollment began in July 2022 and is projected to be completed in September 2024. Primary analysis completion is anticipated in March 2025, with reporting of results following.

Ligamentum teres lesions are associated with compositional and structural hip cartilage degenerative change: region-specific cartilage degeneration.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based ligamentum teres lesions (LTL) and structural hip degeneration. METHODS: Bilateral 3-T hip MRIs of participants (n = 93 [36 men]; mean age ( ± SD) 51 years ± 15.4) recruited from the community and the orthopedic clinic of a single medical center were included. Clinical and imaging data acquired included hip disability and osteoarthritis outcome scores, semi-quantitative scoring of hip osteoarthritis on MRI (SHOMRI) scores on fluid-sensitive sequences, and cartilage T1ρ/T2 compositional sequences. An MRI-based LTL scoring system, incorporating continuity, thickening, and signal intensity, ranging from 0 (normal) to 4 (complete tear) was constructed. Hip morphological features associated with LTL, based on functional or anatomical relationships to LT, were defined. Relationships between MRI-LT scores and SHOMRI, global/regional cartilage T1ρ/T2, and proposed morphological abnormalities and LTL were explored by mixed effects linear and logistic regression models. RESULTS: In 82 (46.1%) hips, no pain was documented; 118 (63.4%) and 68 (36.6%) hips were graded as KL-grade ≤ 1 and ≥ 2, respectively. Compared to MRI-LT score = 0 (normal), score = 4 (complete tear) revealed significantly worse subchondral bony degenerative changes for bone marrow lesions (SHOMRI-BML) and subchondral cysts (SHOMRI-sc) (p < 0.001, p = 0.015, respectively). Global acetabular T1ρ, femoral T2 were significantly increased for abnormal MRI-LT scores (p-range = 0.005-0.032). Regional analyses revealed significantly increased T1ρ/T2 in central acetabular/increased T2 in off-central femoral regions (p-range = 0.005-0.046). Pulvinar effusion-synovitis, shallow fovea, and foveal osteophytes were significantly associated with abnormal LT MRI findings (p-range = < 0.001-0.044). CONCLUSION: MRI abnormalities of LT are associated with worse SHOMRI-sc/BML scores, indicative of hip osteoarthritis and higher T1ρ and T2 that differ by region. Pulvinar effusion-synovitis and changes in femoral head morphology are associated with LTL. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Abnormal ligamentum teres findings identified via MRI are associated with structural degenerative changes of the hip joint and alterations in acetabular and femoral cartilage compositions show spatial differences in relation to LTL. KEY POINTS: The clinical significance of common ligamentum teres lesions (LTL) on MRI is not well understood. LTL identified by an MRI-based scoring system is associated with worse biomarkers, indicating more advanced degenerative hip changes. Effusion-synovitis signal at pulvinar, shallow fovea capitis, and foveal osteophytes are associated with LTL on imaging.

Acute Declines in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients Treated With Benazepril and Hydrochlorothiazide Versus Amlodipine and Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Acute declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) occur commonly after starting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. Whether declines in eGFR that occur after simultaneously starting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors with other antihypertensive agents modifies the benefits of these agents on cardiovascular outcomes is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified predictors of acute declines in eGFR (>15% over 3 months) during randomization to benazepril plus amlodipine versus benazepril plus hydrochlorothiazide in the ACCOMPLISH (Avoiding Cardiovascular Events through Combination Therapy in Patients Living with Systolic Hypertension) trial. We then determined the relation between declines in eGFR (treated as a binary variable, ≤15% versus >15% and separately, as a restricted spline variable) and the composite risk of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events using Cox proportional hazards models. We included 10 714 participants (median age 68 years [Q1 63, Q3 73]), of whom 1024 reached the trial end point over median follow-up of 2.8 years. Predictors of acute declines in eGFR>15% over 3 months included assignment to hydrochlorothiazide (versus amlodipine) and higher baseline albuminuria. Overall, declines in eGFR ≥15% (versus <15%) were associated with a 26% higher hazard of cardiovascular outcomes (95% CI, 1.07-1.48). In spline-based analysis, risk for cardiovascular outcomes was higher in the hydrochlorothiazide arm at every level of decline in eGFR compared with the same magnitude of eGFR decline in the amlodipine arm. CONCLUSION: Combined use of benazepril and amlodipine remains superior to benazepril and hydrochlorothiazide for cardiovascular outcomes, regardless of the magnitude of the decline in eGFR that occurred with initiation of therapy.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors or Angiotensin-Receptor Blockers for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease : A Systematic Review and Retrospective Individual Participant-Level Meta-analysis of Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: In patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the effects of initiating treatment with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB) on the risk for kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and death remain unclear. PURPOSE: To examine the association of ACEi or ARB treatment initiation, relative to a non-ACEi or ARB comparator, with rates of KFRT and death. DATA SOURCES: Ovid Medline and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Clinical Trials Consortium from 1946 through 31 December 2023. STUDY SELECTION: Completed randomized controlled trials testing either an ACEi or an ARB versus a comparator (placebo or antihypertensive drugs other than ACEi or ARB) that included patients with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2. DATA EXTRACTION: The primary outcome was KFRT, and the secondary outcome was death before KFRT. Analyses were done using Cox proportional hazards models according to the intention-to-treat principle. Prespecified subgroup analyses were done according to baseline age (<65 vs. ≥65 years), eGFR (<20 vs. ≥20 mL/min/1.73 m2), albuminuria (urine albumin-creatinine ratio <300 vs. ≥300 mg/g), and history of diabetes. DATA SYNTHESIS: A total of 1739 participants from 18 trials were included, with a mean age of 54.9 years and mean eGFR of 22.2 mL/min/1.73 m2, of whom 624 (35.9%) developed KFRT and 133 (7.6%) died during a median follow-up of 34 months (IQR, 19 to 40 months). Overall, ACEi or ARB treatment initiation led to lower risk for KFRT (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.55 to 0.79]) but not death (hazard ratio, 0.86 [CI, 0.58 to 1.28]). There was no statistically significant interaction between ACEi or ARB treatment and age, eGFR, albuminuria, or diabetes (P for interaction > 0.05 for all). LIMITATION: Individual participant-level data for hyperkalemia or acute kidney injury were not available. CONCLUSION: Initiation of ACEi or ARB therapy protects against KFRT, but not death, in people with advanced CKD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health. (PROSPERO: CRD42022307589).

Defining a screening tool for post-traumatic stress disorder in East Africa: a penalized regression approach.

Background: Scalable PTSD screening strategies must be brief, accurate and capable of administration by a non-specialized workforce. Methods: We used PTSD as determined by the structured clinical interview as our gold standard and considered predictors sets of (a) Posttraumatic Stress Checklist-5 (PCL-5), (b) Primary Care PTSD Screen for the DSM-5 (PC-PTSD) and, (c) PCL-5 and PC-PTSD questions to identify the optimal items for PTSD screening for public sector settings in Kenya. A logistic regression model using LASSO was fit by minimizing the average squared error in the validation data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) measured discrimination performance. Results: Penalized regression analysis suggested a screening tool that sums the Likert scale values of two PCL-5 questions-intrusive thoughts of the stressful experience (#1) and insomnia (#21). This had an AUROC of 0.85 (using hold-out test data) for predicting PTSD as evaluated by the MINI, which outperformed the PC-PTSD. The AUROC was similar in subgroups defined by age, sex, and number of categories of trauma experienced (all AUROCs>0.83) except those with no trauma history- AUROC was 0.78. Conclusion: In some East African settings, a 2-item PTSD screening tool may outperform longer screeners and is easily scaled by a non-specialist workforce.

Effects of intensive lifestyle changes on the progression of mild cognitive impairment or early dementia due to Alzheimer's disease: a randomized, controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence links lifestyle factors with Alzheimer's disease (AD). We report the first randomized, controlled clinical trial to determine if intensive lifestyle changes may beneficially affect the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or early dementia due to AD. METHODS: A 1:1 multicenter randomized controlled phase 2 trial, ages 45-90 with MCI or early dementia due to AD and a Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score of 18 or higher. The primary outcome measures were changes in cognition and function tests: Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGIC), Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-Cog), Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), and Clinical Dementia Rating Global (CDR-G) after 20 weeks of an intensive multidomain lifestyle intervention compared to a wait-list usual care control group. ADAS-Cog, CDR-SB, and CDR-Global scales were compared using a Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank-sum test, and CGIC was compared using Fisher's exact test. Secondary outcomes included plasma Aß42/40 ratio, other biomarkers, and correlating lifestyle with the degree of change in these measures. RESULTS: Fifty-one AD patients enrolled, mean age 73.5. No significant differences in any measures at baseline. Only two patients withdrew. All patients had plasma Aß42/40 ratios <0.0672 at baseline, strongly supporting AD diagnosis. After 20 weeks, significant between-group differences in the CGIC (p= 0.001), CDR-SB (p= 0.032), and CDR Global (p= 0.037) tests and borderline significance in the ADAS-Cog test (p= 0.053). CGIC, CDR Global, and ADAS-Cog showed improvement in cognition and function and CDR-SB showed significantly less progression, compared to the control group which worsened in all four measures. Aß42/40 ratio increased in the intervention group and decreased in the control group (p = 0.003). There was a significant correlation between lifestyle and both cognitive function and the plasma Aß42/40 ratio. The microbiome improved only in the intervention group (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive lifestyle changes may significantly improve cognition and function after 20 weeks in many patients with MCI or early dementia due to AD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Approved by Western Institutional Review Board on 12/31/2017 (#20172897) and by Institutional Review Boards of all sites. This study was registered retrospectively with clinicaltrials.gov on October 8, 2020 (NCT04606420, ID: 20172897).

Clinical and imaging findings associated with preservation of knee joint health over 8 years in individuals aged 65 and over: data from the OAI.

OBJECTIVE: While risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) are well known, it is not well understood why certain individuals maintain high mobility and joint health throughout their life while others demonstrate OA at older ages. The purpose of this study was to assess which demographic, clinical and MRI quantitative and semi-quantitative factors are associated with preserving healthy knees in older individuals. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the OA Initiative (OAI) cohort of individuals at the age of 65 years or above. Participants without OA at baseline (BL) (Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) ≤ 1) were followed and classified as incident cases (KL ≥ 2 during follow-up; n = 115) and as non-incident (KL ≤ 1 over 96-month; n = 391). Associations between the predictor-variables sex, age, BMI, race, clinical scoring systems, T2 relaxation times and Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Score (WORMS) readings at BL and the preservation of healthy knees (KL ≤ 1) during a 96-month follow-up period were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Obesity and presence of pain showed a significant inverse association with maintaining radiographically normal joints in patients aged 65 and above. T2 relaxation times of the lateral femur and tibia as well as the medial femur were also significantly associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints. Additionally, absence of lesions of the lateral meniscus and absence of cartilage lesions in the medial and patellofemoral compartments were significantly associated with maintaining healthy knee joints. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides protective clinical parameters as well as quantitative and semi-quantitative MR-imaging parameters associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints in an older population over 8 years.

A randomized comparative-effectiveness study of two enhanced prenatal care models for low-income pregnant people: Engaging Mothers & Babies; Reimagining Antenatal Care for Everyone (EMBRACE).

BACKGROUND: Improving perinatal mental health and care experiences and preventing adverse maternal and infant outcomes are essential prenatal care components, yet existing services often miss the mark, particularly for low-income populations. An enhanced group prenatal care program, "Glow! Group Prenatal Care and Support," was developed in California's Central Valley in response to poor perinatal mental health, disrespectful care experiences, and high rates of adverse birth outcomes among families with low incomes. METHODS: Engaging Mothers & Babies; Reimagining Antenatal Care for Everyone (EMBRACE) is a pragmatic, two-arm, randomized, comparative-effectiveness study designed to assess depression (primary outcome), the experience of care (secondary outcome), and preterm birth (exploratory outcome) among Medi-Cal (California's Medicaid program)-eligible pregnant and birthing people, comparing those assigned to Glow! Group Prenatal Care and Support (Glow/GC) with those assigned to enhanced, individual prenatal care through the California Department of Public Health's Comprehensive Perinatal Services Program (CPSP/IC). Participating clinical practices offer the two comparators, alternating between comparators every 6 weeks, with the starting comparator randomized at the practice level. Participant-reported outcomes are assessed through interviewer-administered surveys at study entry, during the participant's third trimester, and at 3 months postpartum; preterm birth and other clinical outcomes are abstracted from labor and delivery records. Patient care experiences are further assessed in qualitative interviews. The protocol complies with the Standard Protocol Items for Randomized Trials. CONCLUSIONS: This comparative-effectiveness study will be used to determine which of two forms of enhanced prenatal care is more effective, informing future decisions regarding their use. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04154423.

De Novo Brain Vascular Malformations in Hereditary Hemorrhagic Telangiectasia.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 10% of people with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) have brain vascular malformations (VMs). Few reports describe de novo brain VM formation. International HHT Guidelines recommend initial brain VM screening upon HHT diagnosis in children but do not address rescreening. We aimed to confirm whether brain VMs can form de novo in patients with HHT. METHODS: The Brain Vascular Malformation Consortium HHT project is a 17-center longitudinal study enrolling patients since 2010. We analyzed the database for de novo VMs defined as those detected (1) on follow-up neuroimaging in a patient without previous brain VMs or (2) in a location distinct from previously identified brain VMs and reported those in whom a de novo VM could be confirmed on central neuroimaging review. RESULTS: Of 1909 patients enrolled, 409 (21%) had brain VMs. Seven patients were recorded as having de novo brain VMs, and imaging was available for central review in four. We confirmed that three (0.7% of individuals with brain VMs) had de novo brain VMs (two capillary malformations, one brain arteriovenous malformation) with intervals of six, nine, and 13 years from initial imaging. Two with de novo brain VMs were <18 years. The fourth patient, a child, did not have a de novo brain VM but had a radiologically confirmed increase in size of an existing brain arteriovenous malformation. CONCLUSIONS: Brain VMs can, albeit rarely, form de novo in patients with HHT. Given the potential risk of hemorrhage from brain VMs, regular rescreening in patients with HHT may be warranted.

Flagging unusual clusters based on linear mixed models using weighted and self-calibrated predictors.

Statistical models incorporating cluster-specific intercepts are commonly used in hierarchical settings, for example, observations clustered within patients or patients clustered within hospitals. Predicted values of these intercepts are often used to identify or "flag" extreme or outlying clusters, such as poorly performing hospitals or patients with rapid declines in their health. We consider a variety of flagging rules, assessing different predictors, and using different accuracy measures. Using theoretical calculations and comprehensive numerical evaluation, we show that previously proposed rules based on the 2 most commonly used predictors, the usual best linear unbiased predictor and fixed effects predictor, perform extremely poorly: the incorrect flagging rates are either unacceptably high (approaching 0.5 in the limit) or overly conservative (eg, much <0.05 for reasonable parameter values, leading to very low correct flagging rates). We develop novel methods for flagging extreme clusters that can control the incorrect flagging rates, including very simple-to-use versions that we call "self-calibrated." The new methods have substantially higher correct flagging rates than previously proposed methods for flagging extreme values, while controlling the incorrect flagging rates. We illustrate their application using data on length of stay in pediatric hospitals for children admitted for asthma diagnoses.

Effect of weight loss on knee joint synovitis over 48 months and mediation by subcutaneous fat around the knee: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Obesity influences the development of osteoarthritis via low-grade inflammation. Progression of local inflammation (= synovitis) increased with weight gain in overweight and obese women compared to stable weight. Synovitis could be associated with subcutaneous fat (SCF) around the knee. Purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression and to assess whether SCF around the knee mediates the relationship between weight loss and synovitis progression. METHODS: We included 234 overweight and obese participants (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 25 kg/m2) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) with > 10% weight loss (n = 117) or stable overweight (< ± 3% change, n = 117) over 48 months matched for age and sex. In magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 48 months, effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis using the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) and average joint-adjacent SCF (ajSCF) were assessed. Odds-ratios (ORs) for synovitis progression over 48 months (≥ 1 score increase) were calculated in logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, baseline BMI, Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), and baseline SCF measurements. Mediation of the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression by local SCF change was assessed. RESULTS: Odds for effusion-synovitis progression decreased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61 and 0.56 per standard deviation [SD] change, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44, 0.83 and 0.40, 0.79, p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively), whereas odds for Hoffa-synovitis progression increased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (OR = 1.47 and 1.48, CI 1.05, 2.04 and 1.02, 2.13, p = 0.024 and 0.038, respectively). AjSCF decrease mediated 39% of the effect of weight loss on effusion-synovitis progression. CONCLUSIONS: Effusion-synovitis progression was slowed by weight loss and decrease in local subcutaneous fat. Hoffa-synovitis characterized by fluid in the infrapatellar fat pad increased at the same time, suggesting a decreasing fat pad rather than active synovitis. Decrease in local subcutaneous fat partially mediated the systemic effect of weight loss on synovitis.

Outpatient mean arterial pressure: A potentially modifiable risk for acute kidney injury and death among patients with cirrhosis.

Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), which decreases as portal hypertension progresses, may be a modifiable risk factor among patients with cirrhosis. We included adults enrolled in the Functional Assessment in Liver Transplantation study. We completed latent class trajectory analyses to define MAP trajectories. We completed time-dependent Cox-regression analyses to test the association between outpatient MAP and 3 cirrhosis-related outcomes: (1) stage 2 acute kidney injury (AKI), defined as a ≥200% increase in serum creatinine from baseline; (2) a 5-point increase in the MELD-Na score, defined as the incidence of increase from initial MELD-Na; (3) waitlist mortality, defined as death on the waitlist. For each outcome, we defined MAP cut points by determining the maximally selected Log-rank statistic after univariable Cox-regression analyses. Among the 1786 patients included in this analysis, our latent class trajectory analyses identified 3 specific outpatient MAP trajectories: "stable-low," "stable-high," and "increasing-to-decreasing." However, >80% of patients were in a "stable-low" trajectory. We found in adjusted analyses that outpatient MAP was associated with each of our outcomes: Stage 2 AKI (adjusted hazard ratio 0.88 per 10 mm Hg increase in MAP [95% CI: 0.79-0.99]); 5-point increase in MELD-Na (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.91 [95% CI: 0.86-0.96]; waitlist mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81-0.96]). For each outcome, we found that an outpatient MAP of 82 mm Hg was most associated with outcomes ( p <0.05 for all). Our study informs the association between outpatient MAP and cirrhosis-related outcomes. These findings, coupled with the identification of specific thresholds, lay the foundation for the trial of targeted outpatient MAP modulation in patients with cirrhosis.

Use of activity trackers to improve blood pressure in young people at risk for cardiovascular disease: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Promoting physical activity among young individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease can lower systolic blood pressure (BP). We sought to determine whether a 6-month intervention using a physical activity tracker was feasible and effective, compared with usual care. METHODS: Participants were recruited at a single academic medical center. Those aged 8-30 years were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to either the intervention (use of a Fitbit physical activity tracker coupled with feedback regarding the participant's step count) or usual care. The primary feasibility outcomes were screening-to-enrollment ratio and 6-month retention rates; the primary clinical outcome was a change in systolic BP from 0-6 months. RESULTS: Sixty-three participants were enrolled (57% male; mean age: 18 ± 4 years). The screening-to-enrollment ratio was 1.8:1. Six-month retention was 62% in the intervention group and 86% in the control group (p = 0.08). Mean change in systolic BP in the intervention group was not significantly different from the control group at 6 months (- 2.3 mmHg; 95% CI - 6.5, 1.8 vs. 3.0 mmHg; 95% CI - 2.5, 8.4, respectively, p = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Among children and young adults at elevated CVD risk, the use of a physical activity tracker coupled with tailored feedback regarding their step count progress was feasible but not sustained over time. Physical activity tracker use did not have a statistically significant effect on BP after 6 months. Augmented strategies to mitigate risk in young patients at high risk for early-onset CVD should be explored. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03325426).

The Relationship Between Health Insurance Status and Diabetic Retinopathy Progression.

Objective: To determine if baseline diabetic retinopathy (DR) severity mediates the relationship between health insurance status and DR progression. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Seven hundred sixteen patients aged ≥ 18 years with a diagnosis of type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus, and a diagnosis of nonproliferative DR (NPDR) were identified from the electronic health record of a tertiary academic center between June 2012 and February 2022. Methods: NPDR severity at baseline was the proposed mediator in the relationship between insurance status and proliferative DR (PDR) progression. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between insurance status and NPDR severity at baseline, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between insurance status and time to PDR progression. To analyze the mediation effect of NPDR severity at baseline, a counterfactual approach, which decomposes a total effect into a natural direct effect and a natural indirect effect was applied. Main Outcome Measures: Time to progression from first NPDR diagnosis to first PDR diagnosis. Results: Of the 716 patients, 581 (81%) had Medicare or private insurance, 107 (15%) had Medicaid, and 28 (4.0%) were uninsured at their baseline eye visit. Uninsured or Medicaid patients had a higher proportion of moderate or severe NPDR at their baseline eye visit and a higher proportion of progression to PDR. After adjusting for confounders and NPDR severity at baseline, patients who were uninsured had significantly greater risk of progression to PDR compared with that of patients with Medicare/private insurance (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-6.25). Patients with Medicaid also had an increased risk of progression to PDR compared with that of patients with Medicare/private insurance, although not statistically significant (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 0.81-2.89). NPDR severity at baseline mediated 41% of the effect of insurance status (uninsured vs. Medicare/private insurance) on PDR progression. Conclusions: Patients who were uninsured were more likely to have an advanced stage of NPDR at their baseline eye visit and were at significantly greater risk of progression to PDR compared with patients who had Medicare or were privately insured. Mediation analysis revealed that differences in baseline NPDR severity by insurance explained a significant proportion of the relationship between insurance status and DR progression. Financial Disclosures: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.