Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US.

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program's 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

Does sex matter? Temporal analyses of melanoma trends among men and women suggest etiologic heterogeneity.

The incidence and distribution of cutaneous melanoma differs between the sexes, but it is unclear whether these differences have been constant through time or across generations. We compared incidence trends by age, sex, and anatomic site by analyzing long-term melanoma data (1982-2018) in three populations residing at high-, moderate- and low- ambient sun exposure: Queensland, Australia; United States White; Scotland. We fit age-period-cohort models and compared trends in the male-to-female incidence rate ratio (IRR) by site and sex. In men, melanoma incidence was always highest on the trunk; in women, incidence was historically highest on limbs, but there have been recent increases in truncal melanoma among females in all populations. The IRR showed excess melanoma in females on the lower limb in most age groups in all populations. In contrast, there was a male excess of melanoma on the trunk (from about age 25 years) and head/neck (from about age 40 years) which increased with age. Birth cohort analyses identified 'turning points' in incidence from high to low incidence among recent birth cohorts, which differed by population and site. Changing exposure to UV radiation is implicated, possibly superimposed upon innate differences between the sexes in site-specific susceptibility.

Comparative age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer surveillance researchers analyze incidence or mortality rates jointly indexed by age group and calendar period using age-period-cohort models. Many studies consider age- and period-specific rates in two or more strata defined by sex, race/ethnicity, etc. A comprehensive characterization of trends and patterns within each stratum can be obtained using age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions (EF). However, currently available approaches for joint analysis and synthesis of EF are limited. METHODS: We develop a new method called Comparative Age-Period-Cohort Analysis to quantify similarities and differences of EF across strata. Comparative Analysis identifies whether the stratum-specific hazard rates are proportional by age, period, or cohort. RESULTS: Proportionality imposes natural constraints on the EF that can be exploited to gain efficiency and simplify the interpretation of the data. Comparative Analysis can also identify differences or diversity in proportional relationships between subsets of strata ("pattern heterogeneity"). We present three examples using cancer incidence from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program: non-malignant meningioma by sex; multiple myeloma among men stratified by race/ethnicity; and in situ melanoma by anatomic site among white women. CONCLUSIONS: For studies of cancer rates with from two through to around 10 strata, which covers many outstanding questions in cancer surveillance research, our new method provides a comprehensive, coherent, and reproducible approach for joint analysis and synthesis of age-period-cohort estimable functions.

Cancer survival in Africa, central and south America, and Asia (SURVCAN-3): a population-based benchmarking study in 32 countries.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival is a key measurement of cancer control performance linked to diagnosis and treatment, but benchmarking studies that include lower-income settings and that link results to health systems and human development are scarce. SURVCAN-3 is an international collaboration of population-based cancer registries that aims to benchmark timely and comparable cancer survival estimates in Africa, central and south America, and Asia. METHODS: In SURVCAN-3, population-based cancer registries from Africa, central and south America, and Asia were invited to contribute data. Quality control and data checks were carried out in collaboration with population-based cancer registries and, where applicable, active follow-up was performed at the registry. Patient-level data (sex, age at diagnosis, date of diagnosis, morphology and topography, stage, vital status, and date of death or last contact) were included, comprising patients diagnosed between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012, and followed up for at least 2 years (until Dec 31, 2014). Age-standardised net survival (survival where cancer was the only possible cause of death), with 95% CIs, at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years after diagnosis were calculated using Pohar-Perme estimators for 15 major cancers. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year net survival estimates were stratified by countries within continents (Africa, central and south America, and Asia), and countries according to the four-tier Human Development Index (HDI; low, medium, high, and very high). FINDINGS: 1 400 435 cancer cases from 68 population-based cancer registries in 32 countries were included. Net survival varied substantially between countries and world regions, with estimates steadily rising with increasing levels of the HDI. Across the included cancer types, countries within the lowest HDI category (eg, CÔte d'Ivoire) had a maximum 3-year net survival of 54·6% (95% CI 33·3-71·6; prostate cancer), whereas those within the highest HDI categories (eg, Israel) had a maximum survival of 96·8% (96·1-97·3; prostate cancer). Three distinct groups with varying outcomes by country and HDI dependant on cancer type were identified: cancers with low median 3-year net survival (<30%) and small differences by HDI category (eg, lung and stomach), cancers with intermediate median 3-year net survival (30-79%) and moderate difference by HDI (eg, cervix and colorectum), and cancers with high median 3-year net survival (≥80%) and large difference by HDI (eg, breast and prostate). INTERPRETATION: Disparities in cancer survival across countries were linked to a country's developmental position, and the availability and efficiency of health services. These data can inform policy makers on priorities in cancer control to reduce apparent inequality in cancer outcome. FUNDING: Tata Memorial Hospital, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective.

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a "toolbox" of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the "cancer incidence panel"). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

Trends in long-term cancer survival in Cali, Colombia: 1998-2017.

Background: Population-based cancer survival is an indicator of the effectiveness of cancer services that reflects the survival of all cancer patients in the population, regardless of socioeconomic status and disease characteristics. Aim: Provision of an up-to-date survival estimate of patients recorded within Cali Population Cancer Registry (RPCC) in 1998-2017. As a second objective, results will be compared with those reported by the CONCORD study for cancers prioritized by the current Ten-Year Cancer Control Plan of Colombia, 2012-2021. Methods: Adult cancer cases (aged 15 to 99 years) for nine cancer types diagnosed between 1998 and 2017, with follow-up to 2018, were obtained from the RPCC. The 5-year age-standardized net survival estimates (NS) were estimated using the Pohar-Perme. The results for the period 1995- 2014 were compared with those reported by the CONCORD study for the following locations: stomach (C16), breast (C50), cervix (C53), prostate (C61), and lung (C33-34). Results: Five-year survival estimates for breast and prostate cancers improved ten percentage points through 2007 (70.8 to 81.1 for breast and 79.9 to 90.2 for prostate) and remained stable during 2008-2017. For cervical cancer, survival estimates has remained stable for the last two decades at 53%. For stomach cancer and lung cancer, five-year NS was lower than 25% over the study period. For colorectal cancer, survival estimates increased from 37.9% in 1998-2002 to 54.8% in 2013-2017. Compared to previous 5-year survival estimates of cases diagnosed in 2010-2014, the estimates in this study are significantly higher than those obtained by CONCORD. Survival estimates of patients diagnosed in 1995-2009 showed no difference to CONCORD study. Conclusions: Periodic update of vital status and date of last contact reduces bias in survival estimates in population-based cancer registries with passive follow-up.

Antecedentes: La supervivencia del cáncer es un indicador de la eficacia de los servicios oncológicos que refleja la supervivencia de todos los pacientes con cáncer de la población, independientemente del nivel socioeconómico y las características de la enfermedad. Objetivo: Realizar una estimación actualizada de la supervivencia de los pacientes registrados en el Registro Poblacional de Cáncer de Cali durante 1998-2017. Como segundo objetivo, los resultados se compararán con los reportados por el estudio CONCORD para los cánceres priorizados por el actual Plan Decenal de Control del Cáncer de Colombia, 2012-2021. Métodos: Los casos de cáncer en adultos (15 a 99 años) para nueve tipos de cáncer diagnosticados entre 1998 y 2017, con seguimiento hasta 2018, se obtuvieron del RPCC. Las estimaciones de supervivencia neta (NS) estandarizada por edad a 5 años se estimaron utilizando el método de Pohar-Perme. Los resultados del periodo 1995-2014 se compararon con los obtenidas por el estudio CONCORD para las siguientes localizaciones: estómago (C16), mama (C50), cuello uterino (C53), próstata (C61) y pulmón (C33-34). Resultados: La SN-5a para los cánceres de mama y próstata mejoró diez puntos porcentuales hasta 2007 (SN=70.8 a 81.1 para mama y NS=79.9 a 90.2 para próstata) y se mantuvo estable durante 2008-2017. Para el cáncer de cuello uterino fue 53% y permaneció estable durante dos décadas. Para el cáncer de estómago y el cáncer de pulmón, la SN-5años fue inferior al 25%. Para cáncer colorrectal las estimaciones de supervivencia aumentaron de 37.9% en 1998-2002 a 54.8% en 2013-2017. En comparación con estimaciones anteriores de supervivencia a 5 años de casos diagnosticados en 2010-2014, las estimaciones de este estudio son significativamente más altas que las obtenidas por CONCORD-3. Para la década 1995-2009 no hubo diferencia. Conclusión: La actualización periódica del estado vital y la fecha de último contacto reduce el sesgo en las estimaciones de supervivencia en los registros de cáncer de base poblacional que hacen seguimiento pasivo.

Trends in long-term cancer survival in Cali, Colombia: 1998-2017 / Tendencias en la supervivencia al cáncer a largo plazo en Cali, Colombia: 1998-2017

Abstract Background: Population-based cancer survival is an indicator of the effectiveness of cancer services that reflects the survival of all cancer patients in the population, regardless of socioeconomic status and disease characteristics. Aim: Provision of an up-to-date survival estimate of patients recorded within Cali Population Cancer Registry (RPCC) in 1998-2017. As a second objective, results will be compared with those reported by the CONCORD study for cancers prioritized by the current Ten-Year Cancer Control Plan of Colombia, 2012-2021. Methods: Adult cancer cases (aged 15 to 99 years) for nine cancer types diagnosed between 1998 and 2017, with follow-up to 2018, were obtained from the RPCC. The 5-year age-standardized net survival estimates (NS) were estimated using the Pohar-Perme. The results for the period 1995- 2014 were compared with those reported by the CONCORD study for the following locations: stomach (C16), breast (C50), cervix (C53), prostate (C61), and lung (C33-34). Results: Five-year survival estimates for breast and prostate cancers improved ten percentage points through 2007 (70.8 to 81.1 for breast and 79.9 to 90.2 for prostate) and remained stable during 2008-2017. For cervical cancer, survival estimates has remained stable for the last two decades at 53%. For stomach cancer and lung cancer, five-year NS was lower than 25% over the study period. For colorectal cancer, survival estimates increased from 37.9% in 1998-2002 to 54.8% in 2013-2017. Compared to previous 5-year survival estimates of cases diagnosed in 2010-2014, the estimates in this study are significantly higher than those obtained by CONCORD. Survival estimates of patients diagnosed in 1995-2009 showed no difference to CONCORD study. Conclusions: Periodic update of vital status and date of last contact reduces bias in survival estimates in population-based cancer registries with passive follow-up.

Resumen Antecedentes: La supervivencia del cáncer es un indicador de la eficacia de los servicios oncológicos que refleja la supervivencia de todos los pacientes con cáncer de la población, independientemente del nivel socioeconómico y las características de la enfermedad. Objetivo: Realizar una estimación actualizada de la supervivencia de los pacientes registrados en el Registro Poblacional de Cáncer de Cali durante 1998-2017. Como segundo objetivo, los resultados se compararán con los reportados por el estudio CONCORD para los cánceres priorizados por el actual Plan Decenal de Control del Cáncer de Colombia, 2012-2021. Métodos: Los casos de cáncer en adultos (15 a 99 años) para nueve tipos de cáncer diagnosticados entre 1998 y 2017, con seguimiento hasta 2018, se obtuvieron del RPCC. Las estimaciones de supervivencia neta (NS) estandarizada por edad a 5 años se estimaron utilizando el método de Pohar-Perme. Los resultados del periodo 1995-2014 se compararon con los obtenidas por el estudio CONCORD para las siguientes localizaciones: estómago (C16), mama (C50), cuello uterino (C53), próstata (C61) y pulmón (C33-34). Resultados: La SN-5a para los cánceres de mama y próstata mejoró diez puntos porcentuales hasta 2007 (SN=70.8 a 81.1 para mama y NS=79.9 a 90.2 para próstata) y se mantuvo estable durante 2008-2017. Para el cáncer de cuello uterino fue 53% y permaneció estable durante dos décadas. Para el cáncer de estómago y el cáncer de pulmón, la SN-5años fue inferior al 25%. Para cáncer colorrectal las estimaciones de supervivencia aumentaron de 37.9% en 1998-2002 a 54.8% en 2013-2017. En comparación con estimaciones anteriores de supervivencia a 5 años de casos diagnosticados en 2010-2014, las estimaciones de este estudio son significativamente más altas que las obtenidas por CONCORD-3. Para la década 1995-2009 no hubo diferencia. Conclusión: La actualización periódica del estado vital y la fecha de último contacto reduce el sesgo en las estimaciones de supervivencia en los registros de cáncer de base poblacional que hacen seguimiento pasivo.

Impact of the Management and Proportion of Lost to Follow-Up Cases on Cancer Survival Estimates for Small Population-Based Cancer Registries.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of survival requires follow-up of patients from diagnosis until death ensuring complete and good quality data. Many population-based cancer registries in low- and middle-income countries have difficulties linking registry data with regional or national vital statistics, increasing the chances of cases lost to follow-up. The impact of lost to follow-up cases on survival estimates from small population-based cancer registries (<500 cases) has been understudied, and bias could be larger than in larger registries. METHODS: We simulated scenarios based on idealized real data from three population-based cancer registries to assess the impact of loss to follow-up on 1-5-year overall and net survival for stomach, colon, and thyroid cancers-cancer types with very different prognosis. Multiple scenarios with varying of lost to follow-up proportions (1-20%) and sample sizes of (100-500 cases) were carried out. We investigated the impact of excluding versus censoring lost to follow-up cases; punctual and bootstrap confidence intervals for the average bias are presented. RESULTS: Censoring of lost to follow-up cases lead to overestimation of the overall survival, this effect was strongest for cancers with a poor prognosis and increased with follow-up time and higher proportion of lost to follow-up cases; these effects were slightly larger for net survival than overall survival. Excluding cases lost to follow-up did not generate a bias on survival estimates on average, but in individual cases, there were under- and overestimating survival. For gastric, colon, and thyroid cancer, relative bias on 5-year cancer survival with 1% of lost to follow-up varied between 6% and 125%, 2% and 40%, and 0.1% and 1.0%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Estimation of cancer survival from small population-based registries must be interpreted with caution: even small proportions of censoring, or excluding lost to follow-up cases can inflate survival, making it hard to interpret comparison across regions or countries.

A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Country-specific evidence is needed to guide decisions regarding whether and how to implement lung cancer screening in different settings. For this study, we estimated the potential numbers of individuals screened and lung cancer deaths prevented in Brazil after applying different strategies to define screening eligibility. METHODS: We applied the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) to survey data on current and former smokers (ever-smokers) in 15 Brazilian state capital cities that comprise 18% of the Brazilian population. We evaluated three strategies to define eligibility for screening: (1) pack-years and cessation time (≥30 pack-years and <15 years since cessation); (2) the LCDRAT risk model with a fixed risk threshold; and (3) LCDRAT with age-specific risk thresholds. FINDINGS: Among 2.3 million Brazilian ever-smokers aged 55-79 years, 21,459 (95%CI 20,532-22,387) lung cancer deaths were predicted over 5 years without screening. Applying the fixed risk-based eligibility definition would prevent more lung cancer deaths than the pack-years definition [2,939 (95%CI 2751-3127) vs. 2,500 (95%CI 2318-2681) lung cancer deaths], and with higher screening efficiency [NNS=177 (95%CI 170-183) vs. 205 (95%CI 194-216)], but would tend to screen older individuals [mean age 67.8 (95%CI 67.5-68.2) vs. 63.4 (95%CI 63.0-63.9) years]. Applying age-specific risk thresholds would allow younger ever-smokers to be screened, although these individuals would be at lower risk. The age-specific thresholds strategy would avert three-fifths (60.1%) of preventable lung cancer deaths [N = 2629 (95%CI 2448-2810)] by screening 21.9% of ever-smokers. INTERPRETATION: The definition of eligibility impacts the efficiency of lung cancer screening and the mean age of the eligible population. As implementation of lung screening proceeds in different countries, our analytical framework can be used to guide similar analyses in other contexts. Due to limitations of our models, more research would be needed.

The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying-the head and neck cancer model.

PURPOSE: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model. METHODS: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data. RESULTS: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation. CONCLUSIONS: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.

Thyroid cancer incidence trends by histology in 25 countries: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased in different populations worldwide in the past 30 years. We present here an overview of international trends of thyroid cancer incidence by major histological subtypes. METHODS: We did a population-based study with data for thyroid cancer incidence collected by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) for the period 1998-2012. Data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents plus compendium. We selected data for 25 countries that had a population of more than 2 million individuals covered by cancer registration (87 registries in total). Further criteria were that the selected registration areas had to have a proportion of unspecified thyroid cancer of less than 10% and analyses were restricted to individuals aged 20-84 years. We calculated age-specific incidence rates and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years for individuals aged 20 to 84 years, and assessed trends by country, sex, and major histological subtype (papillary, follicular, medullary, or anaplastic) based on absolute changes in age-standardised incidence rates between 1998-2002 and 2008-12. FINDINGS: Papillary thyroid cancer was the main contributor to overall thyroid cancer in all the studied countries, and was the only histological subtype that increased systematically in all countries, although with large variability between countries. In women, the age-standardised incidence rate of papillary thyroid cancer during 2008-12 ranged from 4·3-5·3 cases per 100 000 person-years in the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark, to 143·3 cases per 100 000 women in South Korea. For men during the same period, the age-standardised incidence rates of papillary thyroid cancer per 100 000 person-years ranged from 1·2 cases per 100 000 in Thailand to 30·7 cases per 100 000 in South Korea. In many countries in Asia, the increase in papillary thyroid cancer rates in women was particularly pronounced after the year 2000; rates stabilised since around 2009 in the USA, Austria, Croatia, Germany, Slovenia, Spain, Lithuania, and Bulgaria. Temporal trends for follicular and medullary thyroid cancer did not show consistent patterns across countries, but slight decreases were seen for anaplastic thyroid cancer in 21 of 25 countries between 1998-2002, and 2008-12. In 2008-12, age-standardised rates for the follicular subtype ranged between 0·5 and 2·5 cases per 100 000 women (and between 0·3 and 1·5 per 100 000 men), while those for the medullary subtype were always less than 1 case per 100 000 women or men, and for anaplastic thyroid cancer less than 0·2 cases per 100 000 women or men. INTERPRETATION: In the period from 1998 to 2012, the rapid increases in thyroid cancer incidence were observed only for papillary thyroid cancer, the subtype more likely to be found in a subclinical form and therefore detected by intense scrutiny of the thyroid gland. FUNDING: French Institut National du Cancer, Italian Association for Cancer Research, Italian Ministry of Health.

The world cancer patient population (WCPP): An updated standard for international comparisons of population-based survival.

PURPOSE: This study addresses the need for a global cancer patient-based standard population that adjusts for the expected age structure of different cancers, thus aiding the comparison of survival estimates worldwide. METHODS: Counts of age-specific incidence for 36 cancer sites in 185 countries for the year 2018 were extracted from IARC's GLOBOCAN database of national estimates. We used a multinomial mixture regression to identify clusters of cancer sites with similar age-specific profiles. RESULTS: An updated standard entitled the World Cancer Patient Population (WCPP) is presented, derived from the current estimated global numbers of cancer patients that comprises three sets of age-specific weights. Around two-thirds of cancer sites were described by a unique standard, representing the majority of epithelial cancers more often diagnosed at older age groups. The two other standards represent a number of non-epithelial cancer types, and cancers common at younger and older age groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: The WCPP proposed here provides a contemporary and global means to estimate age-standardised survival for international benchmarking purposes.

Cervical cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and Human Development Index: A population-based registry study.

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in African women. We sought to estimate population-based survival and evaluate excess hazards for mortality in African women with cervical cancer, examining the effects of country-level Human Development Index (HDI), age and stage at diagnosis. We selected a random sample of 2760 incident cervical cancer cases, diagnosed in 2005 to 2015 from 13 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2735 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We used flexible Poisson regression models to estimate the excess hazards for death adjusting for age, stage and HDI. Among patients with known stage, 65.8% were diagnosed with Stage III-IV disease. The 5-year relative survival for Stage I-II cervical cancer in high HDI registry areas was 67.5% (42.1-83.6) while it was much lower (42.2% [30.6-53.2]) for low HDI registry areas. Independent predictors of mortality were Stage III-IV disease, medium to low country-level HDI and age >65 years at cervical cancer diagnosis. The average relative survival from cervix cancer in the 11 countries was 69.8%, 44.5% and 33.1% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Factors contributing to the HDI (such as education and a country's financial resources) are critical for cervical cancer control in SSA and there is need to strengthen health systems with timely and appropriate prevention and treatment programmes.

Global patterns and trends in cancers of the lip, tongue and mouth.

OBJECTIVES: Global descriptions of international patterns and trends in oral cancer are informative in providing insight into the shifting epidemiologic patterns and the potential prevention of these tumours. We present global statistics on these cancers using the comprehensive set of national estimates and recorded data collated at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). METHODS: The estimated number of lip and oral cavity cases and deaths in the 185 countries for the year 2018 was extracted from IARC's GLOBOCAN database of national estimates. To examine trends, recorded data series on lip and oral cavity cancers, as well as corresponding population-at-risk data were extracted from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Globally, the highest incidence was found in South-Central Asia and parts of Oceania, with the highest estimated incidence rates in Papua New Guinea, Pakistan and India. The highest observed rates of lip cancer were in Australia, while India had the highest incidence rates of mouth and oral tongue cancer. Trends are diverse, with lip cancer incidence rates continuing to decrease for both sexes; the incidence rates of mouth cancer are also in decline in males, although increasing rates among females were observed in some populations. CONCLUSION: There are some grounds for optimism given the prospects for control of these cancers. Primary prevention should however focus on the reduction of the main causes, namely, tobacco and alcohol consumption.

Gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancers in the Americas: Incidence and mortality patterns and trends.

Trends in gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in populations across the Americas can provide insight into shifting epidemiologic patterns and the current and potential impact of preventative and curative programs. Estimates of gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 were extracted from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) GLOBOCAN database for 185 countries. Recorded registry-based incidence from 13 countries was extracted from IARCs Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and corresponding national deaths from the WHO mortality database. Among females, the highest estimated incidence for gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancer in the Americas were found in Bolivia (21.0 per 100,000), Chile (11.7) and Peru (6.0). In the US, the highest incidence rates were observed among Hispanics (1.8). In the Chilean population, gallbladder cancer rates declined in both females and males between 1998 and 2012. Rates dropped slightly in Canada, Costa Rica, US Whites and Hispanics in Los Angeles. Gallbladder cancer mortality rates also decreased across the studied countries, although rising trends were observed in Colombia and Canada after 2010. Countries within Southern and Central America tended to have a higher proportion of unspecified biliary tract cancers. In public health terms, the decline in gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rates is encouraging. However, the slight increase in mortality rates during recent years in Colombia and Canada warrant further attention. Higher proportions of unspecified biliary tract cancers (with correspondingly higher mortality rates) suggest more rigorous pathology procedures may be needed after surgery.

Incidence of Malignant Brain and Central Nervous System Tumors in Golestan, Iran, 2004-2013.

BACKGROUND: Brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors represent almost 3% of all new cancer cases worldwide and comprise a heterogeneous group of tumors with varying epidemiologic and clinical characteristics. The aim of this study is to present the distribution and trends in brain and other CNS cancer incidence in Golestan, Iran during a 10-year period. METHODS: Data on primary brain and other CNS cancers diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) dataset. We computed age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100000 personyears. In order to assess changes in incidence over time, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to detect significant trends. RESULTS: Over the 10-year period (2004-2013), the incidence of brain and other CNS cancer was observed to increase for all ages (EAPC: 1.13, 95% CI: -6.06, 8.87). After 2008, the trends appear to have stabilized. Incidence rates were higher in males than females (ratio: 1.2) and glioblastoma was the most common tumor subtype (15.1% of all malignant tumors). CONCLUSION: Trends and patterns in the burden of brain and other CNS cancer require careful monitoring alongside future research to increase our understanding of potential risk factors.

Breast cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and human development index: A population-based registry study.

Breast cancer is the leading cancer diagnosis and second most common cause of cancer deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, there are few population-level survival data from Africa and none on the survival differences by stage at diagnosis. Here, we estimate breast cancer survival within SSA by area, stage and country-level human development index (HDI). We obtained data on a random sample of 2,588 breast cancer incident cases, diagnosed in 2008-2015 from 14 population-based cancer registries in 12 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2,311 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival (RS) were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We equally estimated the excess hazards adjusting for potential confounders. Among patients with known stage, 64.9% were diagnosed in late stages, with 18.4% being metastatic at diagnosis. The RS varied by registry, ranging from 21.6%(8.2-39.8) at Year 3 in Bulawayo to 84.5% (70.6-93.5) in Namibia. Patients diagnosed at early stages had a 3-year RS of 78% (71.6-83.3) in contrast to 40.3% (34.9-45.7) at advanced stages (III and IV). The overall RS at Year 1 was 86.1% (84.4-87.6), 65.8% (63.5-68.1) at Year 3 and 59.0% (56.3-61.6) at Year 5. Age at diagnosis was not independently associated with increased mortality risk after adjusting for the effect of stage and country-level HDI. In conclusion, downstaging breast cancer at diagnosis and improving access to quality care could be pivotal in improving breast cancer survival outcomes in Africa.

Impact of universal health care and screening on incidence and survival of Thai women with cervical cancer: A population-based study of the Chiang Mai Province.

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) was implemented in Thailand in 2002. This study aims to compare cervical cancer incidence and survival before and after the implementation of UHC, including the national screening program, in the Chiang Mai population in Northern Thailand. Data of women diagnosed with in situ or malignant cervical cancer in Chiang Mai during 1998-2012 were used in our analysis. Annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) and age-adjusted relative survival (RS) were estimated for the following three diagnosis periods: period I: 1998-2002 (before UHC), period II: 2003-2007 (UHC implementation) and period III: 2008-2012 (after UHC). The ASR peaked in 2001 at 38 per 100,000, and then subsequently declined to 23 per 100,000 in 2012. The proportion of in situ and localized tumors increased in all age groups, while regional tumors declined. In all women (aged 15-89) with malignant cervical cancer or in situ, the 5-year RS in Period I, Period II and Period III was 73%, 74% and 77%, respectively; when only malignant cases were considered, the RS was 63%, 61% and 62%, respectively. In the screening target women (aged 30-59) with malignant or in situ tumors, the 5-year RS was 84%, 88% and 90%, respectively, in the three periods, while the RS was 71%, 74% and 75%, respectively, in only those with malignant cancers. The introduction of UHC including national cervical cancer screening program has likely reduced the magnitude and severity of cervical cancer and improved the survival of cervical cancer in the screening target age group.

The descriptive epidemiology of lung cancer and tobacco control: a global overview 2018.

OBJECTIVE: To present the most recent national estimates of lung cancer burden globally in 185 countries and tobacco smoking prevalence (%) by sex. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Estimates of lung cancer incidence and mortality for 2018 were extracted from the Globocan database; observed incidence, from the last volume of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, and tobacco prevalence, from the World Health Observatory/WHO database. RESULTS: In 2018, over two million new lung cancer cases and 1.7 million deaths were estimated to occur worldwide, representing 14% of the new cancer cases and 20% of the cancer deaths. Incidence rates showed marked variation between countries. Stable or decreasing incidence rates were predominant among males, while among females increasing rates were common. CONCLUSIONS: The continuing rise in lung cancer among women reinforces the need for strengthening implementation of the preventive actions committed to by governments in the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.

OBJETIVO: Presentar las estimaciones nacionales más recientes de la carga del cáncer de pulmón a nivel mundial en 185 países y de prevalencia de tabaquismo (%) por sexo. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Las estimaciones de incidencia y mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón para el año 2018 se extrajeron de la base de datos Globocan, la incidencia observada del último volumen de Incidencia de Cáncer en Cinco Continentes y la prevalencia de tabaquismo del Observatorio Mundial de la Salud/OMS. RESULTADOS: En 2018, se estimaron más de dos millones de nuevos casos de cáncer de pulmón y 1.7 millones de muertes a nivel mundial, que representan 14% de los casos nuevos y 20% de las muertes por cáncer. Las tasas de incidencia mostraron grandes variaciones entre países. En hombres, se observaron principalmente tasas de incidencia estables o decrecientes, mientras que en mujeres se observó con frecuencia un incremento. CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados en mujeres refuerzan la necesidad de fortalecer las acciones preventivas de los gobiernos en el Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco.

The descriptive epidemiology of lung cancer and tobacco control: a global overview 2018 / Epidemiología descriptiva del cáncer de pulmón y control de tabaco en 2018: una visión global

Abstract: Objective: To present the most recent national estimates of lung cancer burden globally in 185 countries and tobacco smoking prevalence (%) by sex. Materials and methods: Estimates of lung cancer incidence and mortality for 2018 were extracted from the Globocan database; observed incidence, from the last volume of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, and tobacco prevalence, from the World Health Observatory/WHO database. Results: In 2018, over two million new lung cancer cases and 1.7 million deaths were estimated to occur worldwide, representing 14% of the new cancer cases and 20% of the cancer deaths. Incidence rates showed marked variation between countries. Stable or decreasing incidence rates were predominant among males, while among females increasing rates were common. Conclusion: The continuing rise in lung cancer among women reinforces the need for strengthening implementation of the preventive actions committed to by governments in the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.

Resumen: Objetivo: Presentar las estimaciones nacionales más recientes de la carga del cáncer de pulmón a nivel mundial en 185 países y de prevalencia de tabaquismo (%) por sexo. Material y métodos: Las estimaciones de incidencia y mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón para el año 2018 se extrajeron de la base de datos Globocan, la incidencia observada del último volumen de Incidencia de Cáncer en Cinco Continentes y la prevalencia de tabaquismo del Observatorio Mundial de la Salud/OMS. Resultados: En 2018, se estimaron más de dos millones de nuevos casos de cáncer de pulmón y 1.7 millones de muertes a nivel mundial, que representan 14% de los casos nuevos y 20% de las muertes por cáncer. Las tasas de incidencia mostraron grandes variaciones entre países. En hombres, se observaron principalmente tasas de incidencia estables o decrecientes, mientras que en mujeres se observó con frecuencia un incremento. Conclusión: Los resultados en mujeres refuerzan la necesidad de fortalecer las acciones preventivas de los gobiernos en el Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco.