Cost-effectiveness of interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis in 128 countries: a meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries. METHODS: In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018. To create analysis files, we standardised and mapped the data, extracted additional data from published articles, and added variables from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Then we selected ratios for interventions with a minimum of two published articles and three published ICERs that mapped to one of five GBD causes (HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, drug-susceptible tuberculosis, or multi-drug resistant tuberculosis), and to a GBD country; reported a currency year during or after 1990; and for which the comparator intervention was defined as no intervention, standard of care, or placebo. Our meta-regression analysis used all available data on 25 eligible interventions, and quantified the association between ICERs and factors at country level and intervention level. We used a five-stage statistical model that was developed to synthesise evidence on cost-effectiveness analyses, and we adapted it for smaller sample sizes by grouping interventions by cause and type (ie, prevention, diagnostics, and treatment). Using the meta-regression parameters we predicted country-specific median ICERs, IQRs, and 95% uncertainty intervals in 2019 US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for 14 currently recommended interventions. We report ICERs in league tables with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and country-specific thresholds. FINDINGS: The sample for the analysis was 1273 ratios from 144 articles, of which we included 612 ICERs from 106 articles in our meta-regression analysis. We predicted ICERs for antiretroviral therapy for prevention for two age groups and pregnant women, pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV for two risk groups, four malaria prevention interventions, antenatal syphilis screening, two tuberculosis prevention interventions, the Xpert tuberculosis test, and chemotherapy for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. At the country level, ranking of interventions and number of interventions with a predicted median ICER below the country-specific threshold varied greatly. For instance, median ICERs for six of 14 interventions were below the country-specific threshold in Sudan, whereas 12 of 14 were below the country-specific threshold in Peru. Antenatal syphilis screening had the lowest median ICER among all 14 interventions in 81 (63%) of 128 countries, ranging from $3 (IQR 2-4) per DALY averted in Equatorial Guinea to $3473 (2244-5222) in Ukraine. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV/AIDS for men who have sex with men had the highest median ICER among all interventions in 116 (91%) countries, ranging from $2326 (1077-4567) per DALY averted in Lesotho to $53 559 (23 841-108 534) in Maldives. INTERPRETATION: Country-specific league tables highlight the interventions that offer better value per DALY averted, and can support decision making at a country level that is more tailored to available resources than GDP per capita and country-specific thresholds. Meta-regression is a promising method to synthesise cost-effectiveness analysis results and transfer them across settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A burden of proof study on alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease.

Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship. Our results highlight the need to advance MR methodologies and emulate randomized trials using large observational databases to obtain more definitive answers to this critical public health question.

Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke Across the US From 1990 to 2019.

Importance: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies. Objective: To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location. Design, Setting, and Participants: An in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020. Exposures: In this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals. Results: In 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

Health trends in Canada 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: Monitoring trends in key population health indicators is important for informing health policies. The aim of this study was to examine population health trends in Canada over the past 30 years in relation to other countries. METHODS: We used data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, life expectancy (LE), and child mortality for Canada and other countries between 1990 and 2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: Life expectancy, age-standardized YLL, and age-standardized DALYs all improved in Canada between 1990 and 2019, although the rate of improvement has leveled off since 2011. The top five causes of all-age DALYs in Canada in 2019 were neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental disorders. The greatest increases in all-age DALYs since 1990 were observed for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and sense organ disorders. Age-standardized DALYs declined for most conditions, except for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal disorders, which increased by 94.6%, 14.6%, and 7.3% respectively since 1990. Canada's world ranking for age-standardized DALYs declined from 9th place in 1990 to 24th in 2019. CONCLUSION: Canadians are healthier today than in 1990, but progress has slowed in Canada in recent years in comparison with other high-income countries. The growing burden of substance abuse, diabetes/chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal diseases will require continued action to improve population health.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: La surveillance des tendances des indicateurs clés de la santé de la population est importante pour éclairer les politiques de santé. Dans cette étude, nous avons examiné les tendances de la santé de la population au Canada au cours des 30 dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays. MéTHODES: Nous avons utilisé des données sur les années de vie ajustées en fonction de l'incapacité (DALY), les années de vie perdues (YLL), les années vécues avec un handicap, l'espérance de vie (LE) et la mortalité infantile pour le Canada et d'autres pays entre 1990 et 2019, fournies par l'Étude mondiale sur le fardeau de la maladie. RéSULTATS: L'espérance de vie, les YLL ajustées selon l'âge et les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont tous connu une amélioration au Canada entre 1990 et 2019, bien que le taux d'amélioration se soit stabilisé depuis 2011. Les cinq principales causes des DALY pour tous les âges au Canada en 2019 étaient les néoplasmes, les maladies cardiovasculaires, les affections musculosquelettiques, les affections neurologiques et les troubles mentaux. Les plus fortes augmentations des DALY pour tous les âges depuis 1990 ont été observées pour l'usage de substances, le diabète et les maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que les troubles des organes sensoriels. Les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont diminué pour la plupart des conditions, à l'exception de l'usage de substances, du diabète et des maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que des troubles musculosquelettiques, qui ont augmenté de 94,6 %, 14,6 % et 7,3 % respectivement depuis 1990. Le classement mondial du Canada pour les DALY ajustées selon l'âge est diminué de la 9ième place en 1990 à la 24ième place en 2019. CONCLUSION: Les Canadiens sont en meilleure santé aujourd'hui qu'en 1990, mais les progrès se sont ralentis ces dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays à revenu élevé. La croissance du fardeau lié à l'abus de substances, au diabète/maladies rénales chroniques et aux affections musculosquelettiques exigera des actions continues pour améliorer la santé de la population.

Health effects associated with chewing tobacco: a Burden of Proof study.

Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023. We use a Burden of Proof meta-analysis to generate conservative risk estimates and find weak-to-moderate evidence that tobacco chewers have an increased risk of stroke, lip and oral cavity cancer, esophageal cancer, nasopharynx cancer, other pharynx cancer, and laryngeal cancer. We additionally find insufficient evidence of an association between chewing tobacco and ischemic heart disease. Our findings highlight a need for policy makers, researchers, and communities at risk to devote greater attention to chewing tobacco by both advancing tobacco control efforts and investing in strengthening the existing evidence base.

Health effects associated with exposure to secondhand smoke: a Burden of Proof study.

Despite a gradual decline in smoking rates over time, exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) continues to cause harm to nonsmokers, who are disproportionately children and women living in low- and middle-income countries. We comprehensively reviewed the literature published by July 2022 concerning the adverse impacts of SHS exposure on nine health outcomes. Following, we quantified each exposure-response association accounting for various sources of uncertainty and evaluated the strength of the evidence supporting our analyses using the Burden of Proof Risk Function methodology. We found all nine health outcomes to be associated with SHS exposure. We conservatively estimated that SHS increases the risk of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and lung cancer by at least around 8%, 5%, 1% and 1%, respectively, with the evidence supporting these harmful associations rated as weak (two stars). The evidence supporting the harmful associations between SHS and otitis media, asthma, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was weaker (one star). Despite the weak underlying evidence for these associations, our results reinforce the harmful effects of SHS on health and the need to prioritize advancing efforts to reduce active and passive smoking through a combination of public health policies and education initiatives.

Mortality and disability-adjusted life years in North Africa and Middle East attributed to kidney dysfunction: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: The study aimed to estimate the attributable burden to kidney dysfunction as a metabolic risk factor in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region and its 21 countries in 1990-2019. Methods: The data used in this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, which provided estimated measures of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and other epidemiological indicators of burden. To provide a better insight into the differences in the level of social, cultural, and economic factors, the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was used. Results: In the NAME region in 2019, the number of deaths attributed to kidney dysfunction was 296 632 (95% uncertainty interval: 249 965-343 962), which was about 2.5 times higher than in the year 1990. Afghanistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Kuwait, Turkey, and Iran (Islamic Republic of) had the lowest age-standardized rate of DALYs attributed to kidney dysfunction in the region in 2019. Kidney dysfunction was accounted as a risk factor for ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, stroke, and peripheral artery disease with 150 471, 111 812, 34 068, and 281 attributable deaths, respectively, in 2019 in the region. In 2019, both low-SDI and high-SDI countries in the region experienced higher burdens associated with kidney dysfunction compared to other countries. Conclusions: Kidney dysfunction increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases burden and accounted for more deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases than chronic kidney disease in the region in 2019. Hence, policymakers in the NAME region should prioritize kidney disease prevention and control, recognizing that neglecting its impact on other diseases is a key limitation in its management.

Evaluación comparativa del desempeño de los sistemas estatales de salud usando cobertura efectiva / Benchmarking of performance of Mexican states with effective coverage

Realizar un análisis comparativo del desempeño (benchmarking) de las unidades subnacionales en un sistema de salud descentralizado es importante para favorecer la rendición de cuentas, monitorear el progreso, identificar los factores que determinan tanto el éxito como el fracaso, y crear una cultura basada en la evidencia. Desde 2001, la Secretaría de Salud de México se ha dedicado a desarrollar esta tarea basándose en el concepto de cobertura efectiva promovido por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), que la define como la fracción de ganancia potencial en salud que el sistema de salud podría aportar, con los servicios que actualmente ofrece. Usando los sistemas de información en salud, que incluyen encuestas de salud representativas a nivel estado, registros vitales y registros de egresos hospitalarios, se ha monitoreado la prestación de 14 intervenciones para mejorar la salud entre 2005 y 2006. La cobertura efectiva en general va desde 54 por ciento en Chiapas hasta 65 por ciento en el Distrito Federal. La cobertura efectiva para intervenciones en salud materno-infantil es mayor que para las intervenciones que abordan otros problemas de salud del adulto. La cobertura efectiva para el quintil de ingresos más bajo es de 52 por ciento, comparada con 61 por ciento para el quintil de ingresos más alto. La cobertura efectiva guarda especial relación con el gasto público en salud per cápita en todos los estados, y esta relación es más estrecha con las intervenciones ajenas a la salud materno-infantil que con las que tienen que ver directamente con ella. También se observan variaciones considerables en la cobertura efectiva en niveles de gasto similares. Asimismo, se discuten algunas implicaciones para el desarrollo que debiera seguir el sistema de información en salud en México. Este enfoque alienta a quienes toman decisiones a concentrarse en brindar servicios de calidad y no sólo en ofrecer la disponibilidad del servicio. El cálculo...

Benchmarking of the performance of states, provinces, or districts in a decentralised health system is important for fostering of accountability, monitoring of progress, identification of determinants of success and failure, and creation of a culture of evidence. The Mexican Ministry of Health has, since 2001, used a benchmarking approach based on the World Health Organization (WHO) concept of effective coverage of an intervention, which is defined as the proportion of potential health gain that could be delivered by the health system to that which is actually delivered. Using data collection systems, including state representative examination surveys, vital registration, and hospital discharge registries, we have monitored the delivery of 14 interventions for 2005-06. Overall effective coverage ranges from 54.0 percent in Chiapas, a poor state, to 65.1 percent in the Federal District. Effective coverage for maternal and child health interventions is substantially higher than that for interventions that target other health problems. Effective coverage for the lowest wealth quintile is 52 percent compared with 61 percent for the highest quintile. Effective coverage is closely related to public-health spending per head across states; this relation is stronger for interventions that are not related to maternal and child health than those for maternal and child health. Considerable variation also exists in effective coverage at similar amounts of spending. We discuss the implications of these issues for the further development of the Mexican health-information system. Benchmarking of performance by measuring effective coverage encourages decision-makers to focus on quality service provision, not only service availability. The effective coverage calculation is an important device for health-system stewardship. In adopting this approach, other countries should select interventions to be measured on the basis of the criteria of affordability,...

Evaluación del impacto de la Reforma Mexicana de salud 2001-2006: un informe inicial / Assessing the effect of the 2001-06 Mexican health reform: an interim report card

A partir de 2001 se inicia en México un proceso de diseño, legislación e implementación de la Reforma Mexicana de Salud. Un componente clave de ésta fue la creación del Seguro Popular, que pretende extender la cobertura de aseguramiento médico por siete años a la población que no cuenta con seguridad social, la cual constituía en ese momento casi la mitad de la población total. La reforma incluyó cinco acciones: modificar la ley para garantizar el derecho a la protección a la salud para las familias afiliadas, lo cual al ser implantado completamente incrementará el gasto público en salud entre 0.8 y 1.0 por ciento del PIB; la creación de un paquete de servicios de salud explícito; la asignación de recursos a secretarías estatales de salud descentralizadas, proporcional al número de familias incorporadas; la división de los recursos federales destinados a los estados en fondos independientes para servicios de salud personales y no personales; así como la creación de un fondo para garantizar recursos cuando se presentan eventos catastróficos en salud. Mediante el uso del marco conceptual de los sistemas de salud de la OMS, se han examinado diversos conjuntos de datos para evaluar el impacto de esta reforma en distintas dimensiones del sistema de salud. Entre los principales hallazgos clave se encuentran que: la afiliación alcanza de manera preferente a las comunidades pobres y marginadas; el gasto federal no correspondiente a la seguridad social aumentó 38 por ciento de 2000 a 2005 en términos reales; ha mejorado la equidad del gasto público entre los estados; los afiliados al Seguro Popular presentan una mayor utilización de servicios, tanto a nivel ambulatorio como para pacientes externos y pacientes hospitalarios en comparación con los no asegurados; la cobertura efectiva de 11 intervenciones en salud ha mejorado entre 2000 y 2005; han disminuido las desigualdades en cobertura efectiva durante este periodo en todos los estados y deciles...

Since 2001, Mexico has been designing, legislating, and implementing a major health-system reform. A key component was the creation of Seguro Popular, which is intended to expand insurance coverage over seven years to uninsured people, nearly half the total population at the start of 2001. The reform included five actions: legislation of entitlement per family affiliated which, with full implementation, will increase public spending on health by 0.8-1.0 percent of gross domestic product; creation of explicit benefits packages; allocation of monies to decentralised state ministries of health in proportion to number of families affiliated; division of federal resources flowing to states into separate funds for personal and non-personal health services; and creation of a fund to protect families against catastrophic health expenditures. Using the WHO health-systems framework, a wide range of datasets to assess the effect of this reform on different dimensions of the health system was used. Key findings include: affiliation is preferentially reaching the poor and the marginalised communities; federal non-social security expenditure in real per-head terms increased by 38 percent from 2000 to 2005; equity of public-health expenditure across states improved; Seguro Popular affiliates used more inpatient and outpatient services than uninsured people; effective coverage of 11 interventions has improved between 2000 and 2005-06; inequalities in effective coverage across states and wealth deciles has decreased over this period; catastrophic expenditures for Seguro Popular affiliates are lower than for uninsured people even though use of services has increased. We present some lessons for Mexico based on this interim evaluation and explore implications for other countries considering health reforms.

Monitoring global health: time for new solutions

Improved global health monitoring requires new technologies and methods, strengthened national capacity, norms and standards, and gold standard global reporting. The World Health Organization's many functions limit its capacity for global reporting, and a new global health monitoring organisation is needed to provide independent gold standard health information to the world.